Stockholm Summit looks at educational performance in cities and regions

1. Seeing your education system in the prism of international comparisons Stockholm, 17 May 2010

2. Agenda 1.There is nowhere to hide The yardstick for educational success is no longer improvement by national standards but the best performing systems internationally 2.Where we are – and where we can be Where Sweden and other countries stand What the best performing countries show can be achieved 3.How we can get there Some policy levers that emerge from international comparisons

3. There is nowhere to hide The yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national standards but the best practice internationally

4. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Cost per student Graduate supply Tertiary-type A graduation rate

5. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Sweden United States Cost per student Finland Graduate supply Tertiary-type A graduation rate

6. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Australia Finland United Kingdom Tertiary-type A graduation rate

7. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

8. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

9. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

10. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

11. A world of change – highereducation Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate

12. A world of change – highereducation What about international students? Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) United States Sweden Australia A A United Kingdom Finland A Tertiary-type A graduation rate

13. Moving targetsFuture supply of college graduates

14. Components of the private net present value for a male with higher education 27K$ 56K$ 170K$ 105K$ 35K$ 26K$ 367K$ Net present value in USD equivalent

15. Public cost and benefits for a male obtaining post-secondary education Public costs Public benefits Net present value, USD equivalent (numbers in orange shownegative values) USD equivalent

16. Schooling in the medieval age: The school of the church

17. Schooling in the industrial age: Uniform learning

18. Schooling in the industrial age: Uniform learning The challenges today: Universal quality Motivated and self-reliant citizens Risk-taking entrepreneurs, converging and continuously emerging professions tied to globalising contexts and technological advance

19. How the demand for skills has changedEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution The dilemma of schools: The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource (Levy and Murnane)

20. Skills for the 21st century The great collaborators and orchestrators The more complex the globalised world becomes, the more individuals and companies need various forms of co-ordination and management The great synthesisers Conventionally, our approach to problems was breaking them down into manageable bits and pieces, today we create value by synthesising disparate bits together The great explainers The more content we can search and access, the more important the filters and explainers become

21. Skills for the 21st century The great versatilists Specialists generally have deep skills and narrow scope, giving them expertise that is recognised by peers but not valued outside their domain Generalists have broad scope but shallow skills Versatilists apply depth of skill to a progressively widening scope of situations and experiences, gaining new competencies, building relationships, and assuming new roles. They are capable not only of constantly adapting but also of constantly learning and growing The great personalisers A revival of interpersonal skills, skills that have atrhophied to some degree because of the industrial age and the Internet The great localisers Localising the global

22. Education needs to prepare students… … to deal with more rapid change than ever before… … for jobs that have not yet been created… … using technologies that have not yet been invented… … to solve problems that we don’t yet know will arise It’s about new… Ways of thinking involving creativity, critical thinking, problem-solving and decision-making Ways of working including communication and collaboration Tools for working including the capacity to recognise and exploit the potential of new technologies The capacity to live in a multi-faceted world as active and responsible citizens.

23. OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds Coverage of world economy 83% 77% 81% 85% 86% 87%

24. Strengths and weaknesses in math The real world The mathematical World Making the problem amenable to mathematical treatment A mathematical model A model of reality Understanding, structuring and simplifying the situation Using relevant mathematical content to solve the problem A real situation Validating the results Mathematical results Real results Interpreting the mathematical results

25. High science performance Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply … 18 countries perform below this line Low science performance

26. Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19/21 associated with PISA reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group PISA Level 1) Odds ratioCollege entry School marks at age 15 PISA performance at age 15

27. Modelling the impact Programmes to improve cognitive skills through schools take time to implement and to have their impact on students. Assume that it will take 20 years to implement reform The impact of improved skills will not be realised until the students with greater skills move into the labour force Assume that improved PISA performance will result in improved skill-based of 2.5% of the labour-force each year The economy will respond over time as new technologies are developed and implemented, making use of the new higher skills Estimate the total gains over the lifetime of the generation born this year .

28. Relationship between test performance and economic outcomesAnnual improved GDP from raising performance by 25 PISA points Percent addition to GDP

29. Increase average performance by 25 PISA points (Total 115 trillion $) bn$

30. Catching up with Finland (total 260 trillion $) bn$

31. Catching up with Finland(in percent of GDP) % currrent GDP

34. Explain phenomena scientifically

36. Knowledge about scienceAttitudes -Interest in science -Support for scientific enquiry -Responsibility

37. Strengths and weaknesses of countries in science relative to their overall performanceFrance Science competencies Science knowledge OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13

38. Strengths and weaknesses of countries in science relative to their overall performanceCzech Republic Scientific competencies Scientific knowledge OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13

39. Strengths and weaknesses of countries in science relative to their overall performanceSweden Scientific competencies Scientific knowledge OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13

40. High science performance Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply High average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity Low science performance

41. High science performance Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik High average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity Low science performance

42. Student performance PISA Index of socio-economic background Advantage Disadvantage School performance and socio-economic background Germany Student performance and students’ socio-economic background withinschools School performance and schools’ socio-economic background Schools proportional to size

44. Altering content or pace of curriculum

45. Improving instructional techniques

46. Changing the learning environment in schools and classrooms

47. Standards and accountability

49. Different to socio-economically targeted policies, efforts are directed to ameliorating economic circumstances, rather than providing specialised curriculum or additional educational resourcesSchools proportional to size

51. Students are often also identified through other risk factors, e.g. immigration, ethnicity, low-income communitySchools proportional to size

53. Early intervention programmes

54. Remedial and recovery programmes

55. Performance-based tracking or streamingSchools proportional to size

56. Student performance PISA Index of socio-economic background Advantage Disadvantage School performance and socio-economic background United States Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools School performance and schools’ socio-economic background Schools proportional to size

57. Student performance PISA Index of socio-economic background Advantage Disadvantage School performance and socio-economic background Finland Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools School performance and schools’ socio-economic background Schools proportional to size

58. How to get there Some policy levers that emerge from international comparisons

59. Domain 1 Individual learner LevelA LevelB Instructional settings LevelC Schools, other institutions Country or system LevelD Dimensions for international benchmarking Domain 3 Domain 2 Antecedentscontextualise or constrain ed policy Policy Leversshape educational outcomes Outputs and Outcomesimpact of learning Quality and distribution of knowledge & skills Individ attitudes, engagement and behaviour Socio-economic background of learners Student learning, teacher working conditions Quality of instructional delivery Teaching, learning practices and classroom climate The learning environment at school Community and school characteristics Output and performance of institutions National educ, social and economic context Social & economic outcomes of education Structures, resource alloc and policies

60. Money matters - but other things do too

61. Spending choices on secondary schoolsContribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher compensation costsper student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004) Percentage points

62. High ambitionsand universal standards Rigor, focus and coherence Great systemsattractgreatteachers and provideaccesstobestpractice and quality professional development

63. Challenge and support Strong support Poor performance Improvements idiosyncratic Strong performance Systemic improvement Lowchallenge Highchallenge Poor performance Stagnation Conflict Demoralisation Weak support

65. Principals who manage ‘a building’, who have little training and preparation and are accountable but not empowered

66. Attracting, recruiting and providing excellent training for prospective teachers from the top third of the graduate distribution

67. Attracting and recruiting teachers from the bottom third of the graduate distribution and offering training which does not relate to real classrooms

68. Incentives, rules and funding encourage a fair distribution of teaching talent

69. The best teachers are in the most advantaged communitiesHuman capital

71. Seniority and tenure matter more than performance; patchy professional development; wide variation in quality

72. Teachers and the system expect every child to succeed and intervene preventatively to ensure this

73. Wide achievement gaps, just beginning to narrow but systemic and professional barriers to transformation remain in placeHuman capital (cont…)

74. Some teachers lose much more time than othersPercentiles of time on spent on task Figure 4.10 Source: OECD, TALIS Database.

75. Relatively few teachers participate in the kinds of professional development which they find has the largest impact on their work Comparison of teachers participating in professional development activities and teachers reporting moderate or high level impact by types of activity

76. Relatively few teachers participate in the kinds of professional development which they find has the largest impact on their work Comparison of teachers participating in professional development activities and teachers reporting moderate or high level impact by types of activity

77. The teachers who paid most also did most professional development Figure 3.10

78. It’s not just about more of the same For what type of professional development do teachers report a high level of need?

79. High ambitions Devolvedresponsibility,theschoolasthecentreofaction Accountabilityandintervention in inverse proportiontosuccess Access to best practice and quality professional development

80. Local responsibility and national prescription Towards system-wide sustainable reform National prescription Schools today The industrial model, detailed prescription of what schools do Schools tomorrow? Building capacity Finland today Every school an effective school Schools leading reform

81. Pooled international dataset, effects of selected school/system factors on science performance after accounting for all other factors in the model School principal’s positive evaluation of quality of educational materials(gross only) Schools with more competing schools(gross only) Schools with greater autonomy (resources)(gross and net) School activities to promote science learning(gross and net) One additional hour of self-study or homework (gross and net) One additional hour of science learning at school (gross and net) School results posted publicly (gross and net) Academically selective schools (gross and net) but no system-wide effect Schools practicing ability grouping (gross and net) One additional hour of out-of-school lessons (gross and net) 20 Each additional 10% of public funding(gross only) School principal’s perception that lack of qualified teachers hinders instruction(gross only) Effect after accounting for the socio-economic background of students, schools and countries Measured effect OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a

82. Some teachers are left aloneTeachers who received no appraisal or feedback and teachers in schools that had no school evaluation in the previous five years Figure 5.3

83. Does appraisal and feedback make a difference for teaching? Figure 5.6

84. Perception of teachers of the impact of appraisal and feedback in theirschool Figure 5.7

85. Creating a knowledge-rich profession in which schools and teachers have the authority to act, the necessary knowledge to do so wisely, and access to effective support systems The future of education systems is “knowledge rich” Informed professional judgement, the teacher as a “knowledge worker” Informed prescription National prescription Professional judgement Uninformed prescription, teachers implement curricula Uninformed professional judgement, teachers working in isolation The tradition of education systems has been “knowledge poor”

86. Strong ambitions Devolvedresponsibility,the school as the centre of action Integrated educational opportunities From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning Accountability Access to best practice and quality professional development

87. High science performance Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik High average performance Large socio-economic disparities High average performance High social equity Strong socio-economic impact on student performance Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities Early selection and institutional differentiation High degree of stratification Low degree of stratification Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities Low average performance High social equity 6 Low science performance

89. www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org All national and international publications The complete micro-level database email: Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org Twitter: @SchleicherEDU … and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion Thank you !