Panorama de los desafios y oportunidades de la educacion
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Panorama de los desafios y oportunidades de la educacion
- 1. Panorama de los desafíos y oportunidades de la educación Experiencias de la OCDE José Antonio Ardavín Director Centro de la OCDE en México para América Latina Seminario anual Huatusco IX “ La Calidad de la Educación: su mejoramiento e impacto sobre el crecimiento de México” Huatusco, Ver, México| 1-2 julio de 2011
- 2. (1) Educación y crecimiento * ¿cómo esta México? (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño (3) Tendencias de reforma educativa
- 3. El crecimiento del PIB per cápita en las últimas dos décadas ha sido comparablemente bajo con otras de la OCDE Source: OECD ECO GDP per capita ( US $, constant prices, constant PPPs, 1980=100) … y emergentes (1) Educación y crecimiento
- 4. El papel de la educación en el crecimiento... Antes y ahora Fuente: Hanushek 2009 (1) Educación y crecimiento GDP/pop 1960 Years schooling Asia 1891 4 Sub-Saharan Africa 2304 3.3 MENA 2599 2.7 Latin America 4152 4.7 Europe 7469 7.4 Orig. OECD 11252 9.5
- 5. El papel de la educación en el crecimiento... Antes y ahora Fuente: Hanushek 2009 (1) Educación y crecimiento GDP/pop 1960 Years schooling Growth 1960-2000 GDP/pop 2000 Asia 1891 4 4.5 13571 Sub-Saharan Africa 2304 3.3 1.4 3792 MENA 2599 2.7 2.7 8415 Latin America 4152 4.7 1.8 8063 Europe 7469 7.4 2.9 21752 Orig. OECD 11252 9.5 2.1 26147
- 6. Hoy es la calidad no la cantidad lo que importa Crecimiento del PIB per capita real y resultados de la prueba PISA 2006 Source: OECD The high cost of low education performance (1) Educación y crecimiento ...entre países
- 7. Nuevos Paradigmas : (i) Ser más rico no implica mejor educación (1) Educación y crecimiento
- 8. La educación de calidad puede ser para México, una gran palanca del crecimiento económico Source: OECD The high cost of low education performance (1) Educación y crecimiento
- 10. Moderate policy value High policy value More difficult Less difficult Money pits Must haves Low-hanging fruits Quick wins PISA 2000 A brief history of PISA Proliferation of assessment areas . Examining individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with quality, equity and efficiency in education Measuring student learning outcomes in key subjects Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed Monitoring educational progress Electronic delivery of assessments Understanding drivers of successful reform trajectories Providing countries with effective tools to review the choices and trade-offs which they face as they seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their education systems
- 11. Moderate policy value High policy value More difficult Less difficult Money pits Must haves Low-hanging fruits Quick wins PISA 2003 Proliferation of assessment areas . Examining individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with quality, equity and efficiency in education Measuring student learning outcomes in key subjects and establishing the comparative strengths and weaknesses of education systems Monitoring educational progress Electronic delivery of assessments Understanding drivers of successful reform trajectories Providing countries with effective tools to review the choices and trade-offs which they face as they seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their education systems Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed
- 12. Moderate policy value High policy value More difficult Less difficult Money pits Must haves Low-hanging fruits Quick wins PISA 2006 Proliferation of assessment areas . Examining individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with quality, equity and efficiency in education Measuring student learning outcomes in key subjects and establishing the comparative strengths and weaknesses of education systems Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed Monitoring educational progress Understanding drivers of successful reform trajectories Providing countries with effective tools to review the choices and trade-offs which they face as they seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their education systems Electronic delivery of assessments
- 13. Moderate policy value High policy value More difficult Less difficult Money pits Must haves Low-hanging fruits Quick wins PISA 2009 Proliferation of assessment areas Examining individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with quality, equity and efficiency in education Measuring student learning outcomes in key subjects and establishing the comparative strengths and weaknesses of education systems Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed Affective dimensions of outcomes Electronic delivery of assessments Providing countries with effective tools to review the choices and trade-offs which they face as they seek to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their education systems Assessment of digital literacy Understanding drivers of successful reform trajectories Monitoring educational progress
- 15. La ruta es clara: El aumento de la participación sigue siendo un reto importante *¿cómo esta México? Tendencias en la matrícula de los jóvenes de 15 años de edad Fuentes: PISA 2000 Technical Report, Tabla 31; Learning for Tomorrow’s World - First Results from PISA 2003, Tabla A3.1; PISA 2006, Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Vol. 1, Tabla A2.1; PISA 2009 Results: What Students Know and Can Do - Student Performance in Reading, Mathematics and Science, Tabla A2.1. %
- 16. … y tiene que ver con aprovechar o no el bono demográfico… Estudiantes inscritos a los 15 años (2006) *¿cómo esta México?
- 17. Si bien en una generación se ha duplicado el acceso a educación media superior, aún falta un esfuerzo adicional… Población con al menos educación media superior, 2008 (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 18. En la medida que los estudiantes continúen hacia educación superior, habrá un mejor aprovechamiento de ese bono de en la demográfico Población con educación superior en, 2008 (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 19. Nuevo Paradigma: (ii) Calidad y Equidad no se contraponen… (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 20. En el ámbito de la equidad , un viejo paradigma sigue aún vigente: La historia si importa…aunque se puede romper la dependencia (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 21. … al igual que el entorno socioeconómico… (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 22. ... pero escuelas en México muestran que el entorno no es determinante México Desempeño de los estudiantes Escuela privada Escuela pública en área rural Escuela pública en área urbana 600 493 200 *¿cómo esta México? Ventaja Índice PISA de contexto socio-económico Desventaja
- 23. … y 29% de los estudiantes en desventaja también lo demuestran Más de 30% de estudiantes resilentes Menos de 15% de estudiantes resilentes Estudiante resilente es aquél que viene del cuartil inferior de los estudiantes con mayor desventaja social, pero tiene un desempeño correspondiente al cuartil superior de los estudiantes, a nivel internacional (después de controlar por contexto social) Entre 15%-30% de estudiantes resilentes entre estudiantes con desventajas *¿cómo esta México?
- 24. De hecho, la relación entre el entorno socio-económico y el desempeño disminuyó significativamente entre 2000 y 2009 *¿cómo esta México?
- 25. El reto de la calidad, tiene 4 vertienes y pasa por poner la escuela en el centro… (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño Las escuelas y los niños
- 26. Meta de desempeño PISA 2012 % Lectura Matemáticas Global La prueba PISA es un parámetro de calidad… *¿cómo esta México?
- 27. Alto desempeño en lectura Bajo desempeño en lectura … 8 countries perform below this line Promedio de desempeño de estudiantes de 15 años Meta de México al 2012 435 ptos Promedio de Lectura y Matemáticas *¿cómo esta México? Comparable internacionalmente… PISA 2009
- 28. (1) Un curriculum pertinente con enfoque en capacidades Resultado promedio en la prueba PISA de Lectura 2009 (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 29. … que requerirán para tener éxito académico y profesional Fuente: OECD (2010) Strong Performers and Successful Reformers in Education: Lessons from PISA to the U.S. based on OECD (2010) Pathways to Success How knowledge and skills at age 15 shape future lives in Canada (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 30. En este sentido el reto es la mejora continua… en lectura (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño Meta de México al 2012 435 ptos Promedio de Lectura y Matemáticas
- 31. … con avances marcados, como el observado en matemáticas (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño Meta de México al 2012 435 ptos Promedio de Lectura y Matemáticas
- 32. … y en menor medida en ciencias (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 33. La mejora debe ser balanceada… (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 34. … con énfasis en el aumento de talentos… y disminución de los rezagados Percentage of low performers *¿cómo esta México?
- 35. … y atención a las desigualdades regionales Resultado promedio en la prueba PISA de Lectura 2009 *¿cómo esta México?
- 36. (2) Calidad docente y de prácticas docentes (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 37. lo cual implica fortalecer la preparación y alinear los incentivos de los docentes… *¿cómo esta México?
- 38. … una tarea que tiene diferentes magnitudes para diferentes estados Porcentaje de profesores con título universitario por Estado *¿cómo esta México?
- 39. (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño En cuanto a (3) la gestión escolar y (4) evaluación y medición…
- 40. ...lo cual implica fortalecer el liderazgo y dar mayor capacidad de decisión a las escuelas *¿cómo esta México? ¿Qué tanta autonomía tienen las escuelas individuales sobre curricula y evaluación ?
- 41. ...lo cual implica fortalecer el liderazgo y dar mayor capacidad de decisión a las escuelas *¿cómo esta México? ¿Qué tanta autonomía tienen las escuelas individuales sobre distribución de recursos ?
- 42. La autonomía escolar y la rendición de cuentas deben ir parejas Impacto de la autonomía escolar en el desempeño, en sistemas con y sin arreglos de rendición de cuentas Puntaje PISA en lectura (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 43. Entorno de exigencia y apoyo Débil apoyo Fuerte apoyo Baja exigencia Alta exigencia Alto desempeño Mejora sistémica Pobre desempeño Mejoras idiosincráticas Conflicto Desmoralización Pobre desempeño Estancamiento (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 44. … e implica mayor participación de los padres de familia en los asuntos que atañen a la escuela Rango de opciones por las que los padres pueden opinar y apelar decisones escolares Requerimiento de las escuelas públicas de tener un consejo escolar que gobierna la escuela en el que los padres puedan participar *¿cómo esta México?
- 45. … y en la educación de sus hijos (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño Diferencia de puntaje entre estudiantes cuyos padres frecuentemente (semanalmente o diario) y los que no: ” hablan sobre lo que hicieron" Ventaja de desempeño observada Ventaja de desempeño después de controlar por factores socioeconómicos
- 46. En el ámbito de la eficiencia , un nuevo Paradigma : No necesariamente gastar más es obtener mejores resultados (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 47. El gasto debe atender distintas prioridades adicionales del pago salarial Gasto no salarial en educación y eficiencia educativa (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño
- 48. Diferencias de desempeño entre alumnos que estuvieron en pre-primaria por más un año y los que no (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño Ventaja de desempeño observada Ventaja de desempeño después de controlar por factores socioeconómicos … continuar incrementando el gasto en aquellos factores decisivos que mejoran el desempeño, tales como la educación preescolar
- 49. (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño … y por ejemplo, en el ámbito de la adopción de tecnología, notar que, más que dotar a las escuelas de computadora (que incrementa el desempeño relativamente poco)…
- 50. (2) Lecciones de Sistemas de alto desempeño … lo verdaderamente relevante es la penetración en la sociedad y en los hogares (lo cual apunta a políticas distintas)
- 51. Las tendencias apuntan a una mayor responsabilidad local y reducción de la prescripción a nivel del sistema Prescripción a nivel sistema Organización del trabajo ‘Tayloriana’ Las escuelas lidereando la reforma Maestros como ‘profesionales del conocimiento’ Las escuelas hoy El modelo industrial, prescripción detallada de lo que las escuelas hacen ¿Las escuelas mañana? Construcción de capacidades Finlandia hoy Cada escuela una escuela efectiva Tendencia en los países OCDE (3) Tendencias de reforma educativa
- 52. Trayectorias de reforma educativa Inclusión de estudiantes Curriculum, enseñanza y evaluación Calidad docente Organización del trabajo Rendición de cuentas El viejo sistema burocrático El moderno sistema habilitante (3) Tendencias de reforma educativa
- 53. El acuerdo OCDE-México Un objetivo, cinco áreas de trabajo… Consejo asesor de la OCDE sobre evaluación y políticas de incentivos para los docentes en México Consejo asesor de la OCDE sobre liderazgo escolar y política docente en México
- 55. Panorama de los desafíos y oportunidades de la educación Experiencias de la OCDE José Antonio Ardavín Director Centro de la OCDE en México para América Latina
Notas del editor
- Dado que me ha tocado a mi comenzar las ponencias de este foro, quisiera recalcar precisamente la IMPORTANCIA del tema que nos ocupa. Luego, como Mexicano, hare algunas reflexiones sobre lo que implica para México Y con ello pasare directamente a hablar de 4 retos y a la vez oportunidades que plantea el desarrollo regional para México, proporcionando algunos ejemplos relevantes de experiencias de la OCDE Me baso fundamentalmente en las publicaciónes que la División de Competitividad y Desarrollo Regional ha hecho recientemente sobre México y sobre el desarrollo regional en general, varias de las cuales he tenido la oportunidad de colaborar. Menciono además que actualmente se esta haciendo un estudio sobre la innovación regional y clusters en 15 estados del país, que estará disponible a principios del próximo año.
- What is most important is that today it is no longer the quantity of education, but the quality that matters. Let us go back to the 1960s. The chart shows you the wealth of world regions and the average years of schooling in these regions, which is the most traditional measure of human capital. Have a look at Latin America, it ranked third in wealth and third in years of schooling, so in the 1960s the world seemed pretty much in order.
- But when you look at economic growth between 1960 and 2000, you see that something went wrong. Despite the fact that Latin America did well in terms of years of schooling, only Sub-Saharan Africa did worse in terms of economic growth. So in 2000, Latin America had fallen back considerably in terms of GDP per capita. You can draw two conclusions from this: Either education is not as important for economic growth as we thought, or we have for a long time been measuring the wrong thing.
- We started to develop PISA in 1998 with 28 OECD countries, but since then country participation has grown and our latest PISA assessment covers 74 education systems that make up 86% of the world economy. Coverage in China and India is still patchy, in China we have now covered 12 provinces and in India we are working in two states only. One aspect that makes PISA stand apart from traditional school tests is that PISA puts less emphasis on whether students can reproduce what they were taught, but focuses on their capacity to extrapolate from what they know and creatively apply what they know in novel situations. Some people complain that PISA is unfair, because it confronts students with tasks they have not dealt with before, but if you take that line, then you should consider life unfair, because in this fast-changing world, that is precisely what will expect students later in life. You will see that in the callout box. Students also provided data on their socio-economic context, their schools and their attitudes and engagement with school and learning. In addition , PISA collected data from parents (in some countries), principals and system leaders to yield insights on school policies, practices, resources and institutional factors that help explain performance differences.
- Let me continue with a brief history of PISA. Whatever you do , some things are more important than others. And some things are more difficult than others. When you have a limited budget you need to focus on the quick wins , avoid the money pits , but try to push the frontiers into new territory, and you can always pick up some low-hanging fruits. In PISA 2000 , we started with measuring learning outcomes, and examining the policy levers that relate to quality, equity and efficiency in education. Our medium-term and long-term goals were to monitor educational progress, to understand the drivers of successful reform trajectories, and to provide countries with effective tools to manage reform. We wanted to cover a broad range of measures of success build measures beyond reading, mathematics and science but we knew that it would depend on sophisticated computer-based assessment systems that were beyond our reach at that time. But PISA 2000 was limited in its ambition.
- In 2003, we were much further advanced on many fronts.
- In 2006 technology was sufficiently advanced that we could broach the development of electronic assessment methods for PISA. Slide
- In 2009, we have made major progress with enhancing the analytic power of PISA and understanding some of the factors associated with successful educational performance
- En México 16% de los jóvenes entre 25-34 años tienen educación superior (lugar 22 de 30) y sólo el 7% de aquellos entre 55 y 64 años.
- En México 16% de los jóvenes entre 25-34 años tienen educación superior (lugar 22 de 30) y sólo el 7% de aquellos entre 55 y 64 años.
- Countries at the bottom of the league tend to be suspicious about those high performing countries because the kind of policies you need to activate to get from good to great are very different than what you need to move from poor to adequate. But even if you don’t want to change your system, there is a lot that PISA shows you can learn from the most successful schools in your own system. Let us use the horizontal axis to represent the social background of students and schools and the vertical axis to show the performance of schools. Now you can show where each school in Mexico stands with regard to how well it does and the socio-economic conditions under which it works. The first thing you see is that there is a relationship between social background and school performance. But you also see that there is lots of variability in school performance. Let us just look at a slice of schools that work under similarly disadvantaged social conditions. You see that some of them do very well even by OECD standards while others do quite poorly. If Mexican schools would achieve what Mexican schools show can be achieved, Mexico’s overall performance would be significantly higher. Similarly, you can look at the schools where rich parents sent their children, all marked in green which tells you that these are private schools. But not all of them are of good quality.
- This chart illustrates the reading literacy scale, from below the OECD average, marked in red, to around the OECD average, marked in yellow, to high performance, marked in green. You see that Shanghai, Korea, Hong-Kong, Singapore, New Zealand and Japan in Asia, Finland in Europe and Canada in North America do particularly well. Some will attribute the high performance of the East Asian countries to the Confucian culture, but be careful, for example, Chinese Taipei or Macao come from that same culture and don’t do particularly well. They tend to excel in rote learning, but don’t do well on the kind of creative skills that PISA values.
- Let me briefly summarise the influences that we have measured in PISA.
- … and Mexico needs to improve teaching. - In Mexico, 70 % of the lower secondary teachers are reported by the principal of their school as lacking of pedagogical preparation, which hindered the provision of instruction (TALIS, 2009).
- Let me briefly summarise the influences that we have measured in PISA.
- Let me summarise this by contrasting the dimensions of challenge and support in the following diagram: Where our ambitions are low and teachers and schools are poorly supported, nobody would expect much . But increasing the challenges through new standards, new tests, new school inspection, new publication of school test scores and so on without backing them up with a better support often just leads to conflict and demoralisation . Among OECD countries, we find countless tests and reforms that have resulted in giving schools more money or taking money away from them, developing greater prescription on school standards or less prescription, making classes larger or smaller, often without measurable effects. On the other hand, strong support systems without clear ambitions tend to just strengthen schools that are already good while not raising performance systemically. What we see in many of the best performing education systems is a combination of challenge and support that characterises the best performing education systems.
- Figure II.5.8
- Figure II.5.9
- Figure II.5.9
- Figure II.5.9
- I want to conclude with what we have learned about successful reform trajectories In the past when you only needed a small slice of well-educated people it was efficient for governments to invest a large sum in a small elite to lead the country. But the social and economic cost of low educational performance has risen substantially and all young people now need to leave school with strong foundation skills. When you could still assume that what you learn in school will last for a lifetime, teaching content and routine cognitive skills was at the centre of education. Today, where you can access content on Google, where routine cognitive skills are being digitised or outsourced, and where jobs are changing rapidly, the focus is on enabling people to become lifelong learners, to manage complex ways of thinking and complex ways of working that computers cannot take over easily. In the past , teachers had sometimes only a few years more education than the students they taught. When teacher quality is so low, governments tend to tell their teachers exactly what to do and exactly how they want it done and they tend to use Tayloristic methods of administrative control and accountability to get the results they want. Today the challenge is to make teaching a profession of high-level knowledge workers. But such people will not work in schools organised as Tayloristic workplaces using administrative forms of accountability and bureaucratic command and control systems to direct their work. To attract the people they need, successful education systems have transformed the form of work organisation in their schools to a professional form of work organisation in which professional norms of control complement bureaucratic and administrative forms of control.