Ekonomiska Utsikter, september 2012 (SE)

■ Innehåll

EKONOMISKA
UTSIKTER
SEPTEMBER 2012

Världsekonomi på lågvarv

Sakta framåt
■ Euroområdet står återigen på randen av en recession. USA och
övriga världsekonomin tappade fart under sommaren. Men sakta
och på knagglig väg rör sig världsekonomin framåt.

Gung i säkra hamnar
■ Medan Norge går från klarhet till klarhet syns svaghetstecken i
Sverige och Finland. Danmark är nära recession. Det gungar till i
de nordiska hamnarna.

ÖVERSIKT 04
VÄRLDSEKONOMI PÅ LÅGVARV
SVERIGE 08
HUSHÅLLEN RÄDDAR TILLVÄXTEN
USA 16
MOVING SLOWLY FORWARD
EURO AREA 18
RESTORE CONFIDENCE TO END THE RECESSION
RUSSIA 24
INFLATION DÉJÀ VU
CHINA 29
STABILITY, STABILITY AND … STABILITY
OIL AND COMMODITIES 33
OIL PRICES STAY HIGH
SPECIAL THEME 35
TWO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
2 EKONOMISKA UTSIKTER │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS

■ Innehåll

Tabellsamling ÖVERSIKT
Världsekonomi på lågvarv ............................................................................. 4
Nyckeltal ................................. 6
Räntor och valutor ............... 7
Norden
Exchange rates ..................... 7
SVERIGE
Hushållen räddar tillväxten ........................................................................... 8
Redaktör NORWAY
Risk of overheating may be the biggest challenge ........................................ 10
Annika Winsth
Chefekonom DENMARK
Annika.winsth@nordea.com Languishing economic growth ..................................................................... 12
Tel +46 8 614 8608 FINLAND
Finnish economy has cooled down across the board .................................... 14

Gått till tryck Större industriländer
30 August 2012 USA
Moving slowly forward ................................................................................. 16
EURO AREA
Restore confidence to end the recession ...................................................... 18
Besök oss på: UK
www.nordeamarkets.com UK growth stalling – awaiting outside help ................................................... 20
JAPAN
The challenges remain in the long term ........................................................ 21

Källor:
Reuters EcoWin och officiell nat- Övriga länder
ionell statistik om inget annat
anges. POLAND
Slowdown under control .............................................................................. 22
RUSSIA
Inflation déjà vu ........................................................................................... 24
ESTONIA
Economy remains in a soft patch ................................................................. 26
LATVIA
Economy keeps delivering positive surprises ............................................... 27
LITHUANIA
Showing resilience ...................................................................................... 28
CHINA
Stability, stability and … stability.................................................................. 29
INDIA
A drought of growth..................................................................................... 31
BRAZIL
Slow BRIC healing ....................................................................................... 32

Råvaror
OIL
Oil prices stay high but spare capacity buffer should build ........................... 33
METALS
Metal prices scratching the bottom for now .................................................. 34

SPECIAL THEME
Alternative scenario 1: Back on track ........................................................... 35
Alternative scenario 2: That sinking feeling .................................................. 36


■ Översikt

Världsekonomi på lågvarv
 ECB tar en mer aktiv roll kommer överens om att åtminstone delvis förlänga skat-
telättnader och behålla ersättningsnivåer. Därför kommer
 Ljusare utsikter i USA stärker global riskvilja också partierna att nå en överenskommelse. Finanspoliti-
 Sverige rider ut stormen ken blir åtstramande trots det, men effekten stannar vid
0,5 procent av BNP 2013.

Trots fortsatt oro på finansmarknaderna och stora utma- Europa – två steg fram och ett tillbaka
ningar inte minst i Europa ser vi en aning mer optimist- Tillväxten blir svag i euroområdet. Skillnaderna länder
iskt på framtiden. ECB-chefen Mario Draghis starka utta- emellan är fortsatt stora och kommer att så förbli. Men
landen om att euron är här för att stanna sätter tonen. Det även de mest utsatta länderna väntas vända till tillväxt
ska mycket till för att beslutsfattare och politiker ska låta under prognosperioden om än från mycket låga nivåer.
euron haverera. Vägen framåt är långt ifrån enkel, men Ledande indikatorer bottnar nu, medan makrodata kan
det går sakta åt rätt håll. Den ekonomiska utvecklingen fortsätta att försämras i närtid. I Grekland och Portugal,
blir svag i Europa, men det är tillväxt från och med nästa som tidigt kom i fokus och där stämningsläget rasat till
år. historiskt låga nivåer, har förväntningarna börjat gå åt
rätt håll. Medan indikatorer för Tyskland, som påverkats
Även i USA och Kina sätter den politiska agendan prä- senare av svag efterfrågan, indikerar sämre tider.
geln. I USA krävs politiska överenskommelser för att
inte finanspolitiken ska bli mycket åtstramande. Kina by- Tyska hushåll och företag möter emellertid låga räntor
ter politisk ledning, troligen i höst. Den nuvarande led- och har goda finaniseringsmöjligheter, vilket bör få ef-
ningen har också bytt fot och börjat stimulera ekonomin fekt i takt med att förtroendet sakta återvänder. För euro-
igen. Politiska beslut och utspel blir därmed ett centralt området som helhet är en expansiv penningpolitik och en
inslag i stora delar av världen under prognosperioden. svag euro skäl till att återhämningen trots allt kommer
redan under prognosperioden. Finanspolitiken är fortsatt
BNP, procentuell förändring årstakt mycket stram, men mildras något redan nästa år. Tillväx-
2011 2012 2013 2014 ten inom euroområdet blir -0,4 procent i år och 0,6 re-
Världen 3,8 3,1 3,5 3,8
USA 1,8 2,2 2,0 2,2 spektive 1,7 procent 2013 och 2014.
Euroområdet 1,5 -0,4 0,6 1,7
Kina 10,5 8,0 8,3 8,5
Japan -0,7 2,5 1,6 1,1 Flera av de mest krisdrabbade länderna så som Irland,
Spanien och Portugal har vidtagit omfattande åtgärder för
USA - politiken i fokus att komma tillrätta med skuldkrisen. Arbetskraftskostna-
Inkommande statistik indikerar återhämtning om än trög. derna har till exempel fallit i dessa länder och konkur-
Såväl bostads- som arbetsmarknaden tycks sakta gå åt renskraften ökar därmed, vilket är mycket centralt. Det är
rätt håll. Mycket expansiv penningpolitik börjar slå ige- nödvändigt att detta arbete fortsätter. Men så länge för-
nom och bankutlåningen ökar till företag och industri. troendet saknas för euron räcker inte enskilda länders an-
Hushållens disponibla inkomster stiger snabbare och det strängningar. ECB behöver stiga in och ta en mer aktiv
öppnar för en något starkare efterfrågan framöver. roll, det vill säga stötta ekonomier som uppfyller kraven
som ställs, via stödköp och stabilitetsfonder.
Federal Reserve, Fed, väntas föra en expansiv penning-
politik länge än. Något ljusare utsikter gör dock att det Spanien förväntas be om hjälp med köp av statsobligat-
inte är aktuellt med ytterligare kvantitativa lättnader nu. ioner i höst. Italien följer möjligen efter i slutet av året.
Fed funds rate väntas dock ligga kvar på nuvarande nivå För att få tillgång till stöd ställer ECB och EU-
en bra bit in i 2014. Fed vill på alla sätt undvika att kommissionen krav på åtgärder och dessa krav skulle
bromsa ekonomin för tidigt och avvaktar därför med att kunna bidra till budgetdisciplin i Italien inför valet nästa
inleda räntehöjningscykeln. Men då jämviktsarbetslös- vår. Den teknokratiska regeringen i Italien har vidtagit
heten har gått upp och andelen långtidsarbetslösa är hög strukturella åtgärder, men mycket återstår att göra och
antas inflationen stiga snabbare än vad som ligger i Feds arbetet måste fortgå efter valet.
beräkningar. Räntehöjningarna inleds därmed några
kvartal tidigare än vad Fed själva indikerar idag. Räntan Även Kina står inför politiska utmaningar, med en ny
höjs också tidigare än i euroområdet och dollarn fortsät- ledning på väg in. Den tidigare ambitionen att bromsa
ter att stärkas under prognosperioden. ekonomin för att undvika överhettning slår nu igenom på
tillväxten. BNP utfallet för andra kvartalet, 7,6 procent i
Valutgången är förstås central och huvudscenariot är att årstakt, var det svagaste sedan första kvartalet 2009.
inget parti får majoritet i både Vita huset och i båda kam- Åtstramning kom att ske samtidigt som Europa och USA
rarna. För att inte den finanspolitiska åtstramningen ska tappade fart och effekten tycks ha blivit väl stor. Den ki-
bli för stor är det nödvändigt att de politiska partierna nesiska ledningen har därmed bytt fot och börjat stimu-


■ Översikt

lera ekonomin igen. Både finans- och penningpolitiken talet. Ekonomin växte då med 1,4 procent jämfört med
har använts och det kommer mer åtgärder. Räntan för- kvartalet före. Trots stora likheter med finländsk närings-
väntas sänkas ytterligare under hösten och de offentliga livsstruktur tycks därmed BNP-utvecklingen i de båda
investeringarna ökar igen. Tillväxten bottnar därmed i år länderna nu gå åt helt olika håll.
på 8 procent och Kina undviker en hårdlanding. Bo-
stadsmarknaden är på många håll fortsatt het. Centralt är Vi räknar emellertid med att svensk BNP-data för andra
emellertid att bankerna är statligt ägda och de riskerar kvartalet kommer att revideras ned. Ser man över ett an-
därmed inte att gå omkull. tal kvartal är inte heller tillväxten så stark. I synnerhet
varuexporten och delar av industrin signalerar en trög ut-
En dämpad efterfrågan, inte minst ifrån Kina, har fått me- veckling.
tallpriserna att falla. Aluminiumproducenterna är till ex-
empel under hård press. I takt med en något starkare glo- Förutsättningarna för hushållssektorn ser däremot relativt
bal efterfrågan och ökade infrastruktursatsningar i Kina goda ut. Disponibelinkomsterna stiger med runt 2 pro-
stiger metallpriserna. Priset på Brentolja pendlar mellan cent om året realt. Bostadsmarknaden väntas vara stabil
100 och 115 dollar per fat under kommande år. På kort under prognosperioden och hittills i år har börsen stigit
sikt kan en gynnsam utbudssituation bidra till något lägre med 5 procent. Regeringens överraskande stora reformut-
priser. Under senare delen av prognosperioden väntas rymme skickar också en starkt positiv signal till hushål-
dock oljepriset stiga i takt med att den globala konjunktu- len, även om utgiftsökningarna inte i någon större ut-
ren förbättras och efterfrågan stärks. sträckning tillfaller hushållen. En relativt ljus bild av så-
väl den egna ekonomin som av svensk ekonomi får hus-
BNP, procentuell förändring årstakt hållen att lätta på plånboken. Den privata konsumtionen
2011 2012 2013 2014
Danmark 0,8 0,7 1,9 2,1 ökar med runt 2 procent om året i prognosen medan spa-
Norge, fastland 2,4 3,7 3,0 2,8 randet ligger still. Bidraget till BNP-tillväxten blir där-
Finland 2,7 0,8 1,2 2,8 med cirka en procentenhet per år.
Sverige 3,9 1,2 1,8 2,3

Sysselsättningen har utvecklats starkt, men antalet arbe-
Norden fortsätter att sticka ut
tade timmar har varit i stort oförändrade en längre tid.
De nordiska länderna har påverkats av den globala turbu-
Tidiga indikatorer för arbetsmarknaden börjar påvisa
lensen, men länderna är fortsatt mycket stabila jämfört
svaghetstecken och arbetslösheten stiger något i höst.
med hur det ser ut på många andra håll. Danmark, Norge
Framför allt går arbetslösheten upp inom industrin där
och Sverige har fungerat som säkra hamnar. Inflödet av
produktionen har fallit tillbaka.
kapital har varit stort. Norska och svenska kronan har
stärkts. Den danska centralbanken har tvingats köpa stora
En svag arbetsmarknad och en stark krona dämpar inflat-
belopp i utländsk valuta för att hålla emot pressen på den
ionsimpulserna. Den underliggande inflationen förblir
danska kronan.
låg under prognosperioden och Riksbanken sänker därför
räntan mot slutet av året. I prognosen ligger två ränte-
I Danmark är bostadsmarknaden nu nära att bottna. Små-
sänkningar om 0,25 procentenheter i år.
huspriserna har fallit med mer än 20 procent under fyra
år och är tillbaka på en mer långsiktig jämviktsnivå. Det,
Under eurokrisen har kronan blivit en tillflyktsvaluta och
tillsammans med stigande sysselsättning, stimulerar eko-
den har stärkts mot bland annat euron. Röster har därmed
nomin i slutet av prognosperioden.
höjts för att Riksbanken bör sänka räntan för att minska
ränteskillnaderna mot omvärlden och därmed styrkan i
Norsk ekonomi visar få svaghetstecken. Tillverkningsin-
kronan. Den reala kronförstärkningen är dock inte lika
dustrin går bra, oljeinvesteringarna ökar och framför allt
stor som den nominella. Frågan är också om den starka
bidrar hushållens konsumtion till tillväxten. Samtidigt
kronan är här för att stanna eller om det är av mer tillfäl-
håller en stark arbetsmarknad uppe huspriserna. Trots
lig karaktär. Ju starkare kronan blir och ju längre det hål-
stigande löner, huspriser och god fart i ekonomin tycks
ler i sig, desto större är sannolikheten att Riksbanken tar
inte heller inflationen ta fart. Norges bank väntas därmed
hänsyn till effekten i räntesättningen. Vår bedömning är
avvakta med räntehöjningar länge än.
att kronan ligger klart under 9 kronor mot euron hela
prognosperioden, men att den försvagas mot dagens nivå.
Finland har tydligt känt av den internationella inbroms-
ningen via exporten, men även hushållen och investe-
Sammantaget bottnar tillväxten i svensk ekonomi under
ringarna har bromsat in. Finländsk tillväxt hamnade i
tredje kvartalet. Arbetslösheten stiger i höst och i vinter,
bottenligan inom euroområdet under andra kvartalet.
men global återhämning gör att Riksbanken höjer räntan
BNP föll tillbaka med 1 procent jämfört med kvartalet
redan i slutet av nästa år. Sverige rider därmed ut den
före. Det är inte uteslutet att BNP faller tillbaka även un-
globala stormen väl.
der tredje kvartalet.

Svensk ekonomi överraskade å andra sidan starkt positivt Annika Winsth
annika.winsth@nordea.com +46 8 614 8608
under första halvåret, men framför allt under andra kvar-


■ Översikt

Growth, % Inflation, %
2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
World1) 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 World1) 2.8 4.1 2.9 2.9 2.9

USA 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2 USA 1.6 3.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
Euro area 1.9 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7 Euro area 1.6 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.6
China 9.2 10.5 8.0 8.3 8.5 China 3.3 5.4 3.1 4.0 3.8
Japan 4.6 -0.7 2.5 1.6 1.1 Japan -0.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1

Denmark 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.1 Denmark 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2
Norw ay 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.8 Norw ay 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.1
Sw eden 6.2 3.9 1.2 1.8 2.3 Sw eden 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 2.0

UK 1.8 0.8 -0.4 1.0 1.7 UK 3.3 4.5 3.0 2.2 1.4
Sw itzerland 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 Sw itzerland 0.7 0.2 -0.7 0.6 1.6

Germany 4.0 3.1 0.9 1.4 2.1 Germany 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.1
France 1.6 1.7 0.1 0.8 1.7 France 0.1 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.9
Italy 1.8 0.5 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 Italy 1.6 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.5
Spain -0.3 0.4 -1.2 -0.9 1.1 Spain 2.0 3.1 2.4 2.2 0.5
Netherlands 1.6 1.1 -0.2 1.2 1.7 Netherlands 0.9 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.8
Austria 2.3 2.7 0.9 0.8 1.7 Austria 1.7 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.9
Belgium 2.4 1.8 -0.4 0.6 1.8 Belgium 2.3 3.5 2.2 1.5 1.7
Portugal 1.4 -1.6 -2.7 0.0 1.2 Portugal 1.4 3.6 2.9 1.5 1.3
Greece -3.5 -6.9 -6.6 -0.9 1.2 Greece 4.7 3.1 0.5 -0.5 0.0
Finland 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8 Finland 1.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.3
Ireland -0.8 1.4 -0.2 1.5 2.1 Ireland -1.6 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.5
Estonia 2.3 7.6 2.3 3.5 3.8 Estonia 3.0 5.0 3.7 3.0 2.9

Poland 3.9 4.3 2.8 2.3 3.1 Poland 2.6 4.3 3.9 2.7 2.2
Russia 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.8 5.0 Russia 6.9 8.5 6.3 6.8 7.0
Latvia -0.3 5.5 4.2 2.5 3.9 Latvia -1.1 4.4 2.3 2.5 2.8
Lithuania 1.4 5.9 2.7 3.3 3.5 Lithuania 1.3 4.1 3.0 2.8 3.0
India 9.6 6.9 6.0 6.7 7.2 India 9.6 9.5 7.5 6.8 7.0
Brazil 7.6 2.8 2.6 4.6 4.8 Brazil 5.0 6.4 5.2 5.4 5.8

Public finances, % of GDP Current account, % of GDP
2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
USA -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.5 -4.1 USA -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0
Euro area -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 Euro area 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0
China -1.7 -1.1 -1.5 -2.3 -1.9 China 5.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.5
Japan -9.0 -9.7 -9.9 -9.6 -9.0 Japan 3.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.4

Denmark -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5 Denmark 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4
Norw ay 11.3 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.6 Norw ay 12.4 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.1
Sw eden -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5 Sw eden 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5

UK -10.4 -8.3 -7.6 -6.4 -4.7 UK -2.5 -1.9 -2.3 -2.1 -1.3
Sw itzerland 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 Sw itzerland 14.3 10.4 9.3 8.7 9.9

Germany -4.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 Germany 5.8 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.0
France -7.1 -5.2 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 France -2.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.1 -2.0
Italy -4.6 -3.9 -2.0 -1.8 -1.0 Italy -3.5 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 -0.5
Finland -2.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 Finland 1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.6
Estonia 0.2 1.0 -1.5 -0.5 -0.3 Estonia 3.8 2.1 -2.3 -1.5 -1.3

Poland -7.8 -5.1 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 Poland -4.7 -4.3 -3.6 -3.0 -3.0
Russia -4.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 Russia 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.0 2.5
Latvia -8.2 -3.5 -2.2 -2.0 -2.0 Latvia 3.0 -1.2 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6
Lithuania -7.2 -5.5 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0 Lithuania 1.1 -1.6 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0
India -3.6 -6.6 -7.0 -7.5 -8.0 India -3.3 -2.8 -4.0 -3.0 -2.2
Brazil -2.7 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 Brazil -2.3 -2.1 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8
1) Weighted average of countries in t his table. Accounts for 76.5%of world GDP. Weights calculat ed using PPP adjust ed GDP levels f or 2008 according to t he IM F's World Economic Out look


■ Översikt

Monetary policy rates Monetary policy rate spreads vs Euro area
30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14
USA 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 2.00 USA -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 1.00
Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Japan1) -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -1.90
Euroområdet 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 Euroområdet - - - - -
Danmark 0.20 0.05 0.15 0.25 1.00 Danmark -0.55 -0.45 -0.35 -0.25 0.00
Sverige 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.50 2.00 Sverige 0.75 0.75 0.50 1.00 1.00
Norge 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.75 Norge 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75
UK 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 UK -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Schw eiz 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 Schw eiz -0.75 -0.50 -0.50 0.00 0.00
Polen 4.75 4.50 4.00 4.00 4.50 Polen 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.50 3.50
Rusland 8.00 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 Rusland 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.75 7.25
Kina 6.00 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.00 Kina 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 5.00
Indien 8.00 8.00 7.75 7.75 7.50 Indien 7.25 7.50 7.25 7.25 6.50
Brasilien 7.50 7.50 7.50 8.00 10.50 Brasilien 6.75 7.00 7.00 7.50 9.50
1) Against the US

3-month rates 3-month spreads vs Euro area
30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14
USA 0.42 0.45 0.50 0.60 2.50 USA 0.13 0.20 0.25 0.10 1.30
Danmark 0.31 0.35 0.40 0.70 1.45 Danmark 0.03 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Sverige 1.95 1.55 1.50 2.00 2.50 Sverige 1.66 1.30 1.25 1.50 1.30
Norge 2.05 2.02 2.27 2.43 3.16 Norge 1.76 1.77 2.02 1.93 1.96
UK 0.68 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.25 UK 0.40 0.35 0.35 0.10 0.05
Polen 5.04 4.85 4.35 4.30 4.80 Polen 4.75 4.60 4.10 3.80 3.60
Rusland 7.17 7.40 7.50 7.50 8.00 Rusland 6.88 7.15 7.25 7.00 6.80
Estland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Estland -0.29 -0.25 -0.25 -0.50 -1.20
Letland 0.61 0.55 0.50 0.50 1.20 Letland 0.32 0.30 0.25 0.00 0.00
Litauen 0.89 0.75 0.80 1.10 1.70 Litauen 0.60 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.50

10-year government benchmark yields 10-year yield spreads vs Euro area
30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14
USA 1.64 2.00 2.50 3.00 4.00 USA 0.30 0.25 0.60 0.80 1.35

Danmark 1.08 1.55 1.75 2.05 2.55 Danmark -0.26 -0.20 -0.15 -0.15 -0.10
Sverige 1.38 1.80 2.00 2.60 3.00 Sverige 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.40 0.35
Norge 1.97 2.58 2.86 2.96 3.14 Norge 0.62 0.83 0.96 0.76 0.49

UK 1.48 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.75 UK 0.14 0.00 0.10 0.05 0.10

Polen 4.92 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.50 Polen 3.58 3.05 3.00 2.80 2.85

Exchange rates vs EUR Exchange rates vs EUR and USD
30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14 30.8.12 3M 30.6.13 31.12.13 31.12.14
EUR/SEK 8.363 8.350 8.500 8.600 8.600 EUR/USD 1.26 1.30 1.20 1.15 1.10
USD/SEK 6.656 6.423 7.083 7.478 7.818 EUR/JPY 1) 99 104 98 98 99
JPY/SEK1 8.465 8.029 8.638 8.798 8.687 EUR/GBP 0.79 0.81 0.78 0.77 0.75
DKK/SEK 1.122 1.121 1.140 1.154 1.154 EUR/CHF 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.30
NOK/SEK 1.145 1.113 1.133 1.162 1.147 EUR/SEK 8.36 8.35 8.50 8.60 8.60
GBP/SEK 10.54 10.34 10.97 11.24 11.47 EUR/NOK 7.31 7.50 7.50 7.40 7.50
CHF/SEK 6.963 6.958 7.083 6.880 6.615 EUR/PLN 4.19 4.00 3.92 3.80 3.70
PLN/SEK 1.996 2.088 2.168 2.263 2.324 USD/JPY 78.6 80.0 82.0 85.0 90.0
USD/GBP 1.58 1.61 1.55 1.50 1.47
RUB/SEK 0.206 0.207 0.236 0.262 0.270 USD/CHF 0.96 0.92 1.00 1.09 1.18
EEK/SEK 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 USD/SEK 6.66 6.42 7.08 7.48 7.82
LVL/SEK 12.01 11.93 12.14 12.25 12.23 USD/NOK 5.81 5.77 6.25 6.43 6.82
LTL/SEK 2.422 2.418 2.462 2.491 2.491 USD/PLN 3.33 3.08 3.27 3.30 3.36
CNY/SEK 1.048 1.010 1.117 1.197 1.282 USD/CNY 6.35 6.36 6.34 6.25 6.10
1) Per 100 units USD/INR 55.6 55.0 53.0 48.0 45.0
USD/BRL 2.05 1.95 1.85 1.75 1.70


■ Sverige

Hushållen räddar tillväxten
 BNP-tillväxten långsamt bättre kommande år… Hushållen på gång
Hushållens ekonomiska situation är stabil. Låg inflation
 …men arbetsmarknaden försvagas i närtid och avtalade löneökningar bidrar till att stärka hushållens
 Utdragen period med låg inflation köpkraft. De reala disponibla inkomsterna ökar med ca 2
procent per år under åren 2012-2014. Hushållens förbätt-
 Riksbanken sänker räntan i år och kronan försvagas rade ekonomi återspeglas på bostadsmarknaden. Huspri-
serna visar tecken på att stiga igen efter den milda svack-
Hygglig tillväxt an under det senaste året. Liksom huspriserna är börskur-
Den svenska ekonomin har visat en överraskande mot- sernas utveckling viktig för hushållens konsumtions- och
ståndskraft mot turbulensen i vår omvärld. BNP föll vis- sparbeteende, och det kan noteras att Stockholmsbörsen
serligen i slutet av 2011 men såväl BNP som sysselsätt- har återhämtat sig något sedan årsskiftet. Förutsättning-
ningen ökade igen under första halvåret i år. Den in- arna är således på plats för hushållen och vi räknar med
hemska ekonomin var en viktig tillväxtmotor men även en god konsumtionsökning kommande år.
utrikeshandeln förbättrades. Tillväxten under första halv-
året var förhållandevis god även beaktat att BNP för Investeringarna tappade fart under andra kvartalet i år ef-
andra kvartalet troligen revideras ned. ter den kraftiga ökningen under årets inledning. Även om
bilden inte är entydig förefaller kapacitetsutnyttjandet ha
Även om ekonomin har parerat de globala hindren bättre minskat i flera branscher, vilket minskar investeringsbe-
än väntat är tillväxten inte tillräckligt hög för att efterfrå- hovet. Därtill hämmas investeringsviljan av de mörka
gan på arbetskraft ska upprätthållas. Vi räknar med att moln som dröjer sig kvar över euroområdet. Bostadsbyg-
arbetslösheten stiger till över 8 procent i vinter. gandet faller redan kraftigt och de totala investeringarna
utvecklas svagt de kommande kvartalen. Även under en
Utsikterna för andra halvåret i år är splittrade och tillväx- stor del av nästa år torde behovet att expandera vara
ten kommer sannolikt att vara dämpad. Det finns dock måttligt för att sedan tillta under 2014 i takt med en all-
förutsättningar för en ökad aktivitet i ekonomin längre mänt bättre konjunktur. Expansiv finanspolitik via ut-
fram. Gynnsamt läge för hushållen, en något mer expan- byggd infrastruktur bidrar till att hålla uppe investerings-
siv ekonomisk politik och en omvärld som långsamt re- tillväxten under prognosperioden.
par sig bidrar till att BNP växer något snabbare kom-
mande år. Den svaga omvärldsmiljön gör dock att till- Tuffa tider för exportindustrin
växten inte skjuter fart mer påtagligt och det dröjer till Trots en viss förbättring på senare tid har exporten av va-
senare delen av prognosperioden innan arbetslösheten ror stagnerat under det senaste året. Orderingången är
sjunker igen. fortsatt svag och tillväxten i många viktiga handelspart-

Sverige: Makroekonomiska nyckeltal (årlig tillväxt i procent om inget annat anges)
2009 (mdkr) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Privat konsumtion 1,533 3.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.1
Offentlig konsumtion 860 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 1.5
Fasta bruttoinvesteringar 559 7.7 6.2 2.5 1.0 3.5
- industri 74 1.0 7.9 -2.2 2.2 4.4
- bostadsinvesteringar 92 17.2 15.1 -8.7 -2.2 4.5
Lagerinvesteringar* -46 2.1 0.6 -1.1 0.1 0.0
Export 1,489 11.7 6.9 1.2 4.2 4.9
Import 1,288 12.7 6.3 -0.4 3.8 5.1
BNP 3,106 6.2 3.9 1.2 1.8 2.3
BNP, kalenderkorrigerad 5.9 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.4
Nominell BNP (mdr SEK) 3,106 3,331 3,492 3,580 3,703 3,836

Arbetslöshet (% av arbetskraften) 8.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7
Sysselsättning 1.0 2.1 0.3 -0.2 0.8
Konsumentpriser (årsgenomsnitt KPI) 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 2.0
Underliggande inflation (årsgenomsnitt KPIF) 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.5
Timlöner (nationalräkenskaper) 0.4 2.9 3.3 3.2 2.8
Bytesbalans (mdr SEK) 225 243 259 280 288
- % av BNP 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5
Handelsbalans (% av BNP) 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7

Offentligt finansiellt sparande (mdr SEK) -2 5 -12 -38 -18
- % av BNP -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5
Offentlig bruttoskuld, % av BNP 39.4 38.4 38.1 39.1 39.6
* Bidrag till BNP-utvecklingen, procentenheter


■ Sverige

ners är låg. Exporten av varor ser därmed ut att vara fort- Stigande inkomster och konsumtion för hushållen
satt dämpad under återstoden av 2012. Exportföretagen
brottas dessutom med en stark valutakurs. Den påverkar
dock snarare lönsamheten än exportvolymerna. Trycket
minskar längre fram då kronan antas försvagas och efter-
frågan successivt förbättras.

Utrikeshandeln med tjänster, som har ökat kraftigt hittills
i år, är allt viktigare. Från att ha utgjort 6 procent av BNP
år 1980 står exporten av tjänster i dag för 15 procent av
ekonomin. Avsättningsmarknaderna är i stor sett des-
amma som för varor där efterfrågan alltså är svag. Det ta-
lar för att utvecklingen under första halvåret var tillfälligt
stark och att tillväxten försvagas framöver.

Låg inflation pressar Riksbanken Svag global utveckling dämpar svensk export
Trots att antalet sysselsatta har ökat något hittills i år kan
flera svaghetstecken skönjas på arbetsmarknaden. Till
exempel har efterfrågan på arbetskraft inte varit tillräck-
lig för att hålla arbetslösheten i schack. Indikatorerna för
arbetsmarknaden är fortfarande på hyggliga nivåer men
har börjat mjukna. Därför räknar vi med att sysselsätt-
ningen minskar och att uppgången i arbetslösheten tilltar
under hösten och vintern.

En försvagning av arbetsmarknaden följs normalt av en
minskad inhemsk inflation. Därtill bidrar kronförstärk-
ningen till att kostnaderna hålls nere. Dagens måttliga in-
flationstryck sjunker således ytterligare framöver och pe-
rioden med en underliggande inflation tydligt under 2- Minskat inflationstryck på hemmaplan
procentsmålet förlängs. Det är ett orosmoment för Riks-
banken då det bland annat kan bidra till att trycka ned re-
dan fallande inflationsförväntningar ytterligare.

Dörren står således öppen för att Riksbanken ska lätta på
penningpolitiken. Låg inflation, en försvagad arbets-
marknad, låga styrräntor i omvärlden och risken för en
ytterligare appreciering av kronan leder till att Riksban-
ken sänker räntan i år. Med en bättre konjunktur höjer
Riksbanken räntan igen mot slutet av 2013.

Paradigmskifte för kronan
Kronan har i år fått en status av säker hamn på ett stor-
migt finansiellt hav. Orsakerna är den svenska ekono-
mins begränsade exponering mot ekonomiska oroshärdar, Paradigmskifte för kronan
solida offentliga finanser och ett konkurrenskraftigt nä-
ringsliv. Det senare manifesteras i en oväntat hög tillväxt
och ökade ränteskillnader. Framöver bedöms kronan för-
svagas något mot euron då läget i omvärlden successivt
stabiliseras och ränteskillnaderna minskar. Kronan hand-
las dock under 9 kronor mot euron hela prognosperioden.
Den amerikanska dollarn fortsätter att stärkas mot flerta-
let valutor, däribland kronan.

Torbjörn Isaksson
torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com +46 614 8859


■ Norway

Risk of overheating may be the biggest challenge
 Strong domestic demand growth feared. Some export industries are facing difficulties, but
for instance strong growth in electricity exports has put a
 High immigration prevents overheating floor under total export growth. However, while this
 And Norges Bank may proceed with caution trend is probably only temporary, the strong growth in
exports within the engineering industry should continue.
The Norwegian economy is showing few signs of weak- It reflects the increasing significance of the oil services
ness and we see no reason to change our optimistic view industry for Norwegian exports. With sustained high oil
of the economy going forward. Growth looks set to be prices, prospects are good for this type of exports in the
high, but with increased labour immigration an overheat- years ahead. Over the forecast period we also see growth
ing of the economy and sharply rising costs will probably in traditional exports rising, driven by stronger traditional
be avoided. Wage growth will be much higher than in export market growth.
neighbouring countries, but not so high as to push infla-
tion above target. However, strong economic growth and The exceptionally strong growth in Norwegian oil in-
higher capacity utilisation point to higher interest rates vestment has been vital for the oil services industry.
during the next couple of years. But fears of excessive Growth will likely slow in coming years, but it will still
NOK strengthening limit Norges Bank’s room for ma- remain very high. In our view, capacity limitations in
noeuvre in monetary policy. many areas will prove the key obstacle to growth in this
industry. Pressures in this part of the economy seem to be
Strong consumption growth one of main reasons why the wage negotiations, despite
Strong wage and employment growth and very low infla- all the talk of competitiveness and the so-called
tion currently boost consumer purchasing power. It is “frontfagmodell” (meaning that the negotiations start in
therefore no surprise that consumption growth in H1 the industries particularly exposed to competition), result
2012 was very high after last year’s weaker-than- in pay rises in manufacturing way beyond those in rival
expected trend. And with an initial high level of savings countries.
and a sustained strong labour market we see consumption
growth continuing unabated during the remainder of the We also see fairly strong growth in mainland investment
year and into 2013. In 2013 and 2014 consumption going forward, although the pace is not likely to match
growth should slow down as a result of higher interest that of oil investment growth. The propensity to invest
rates and more moderate employment growth. should be high with strong production gains in large parts
of the corporate sector. Higher credit margins and tighter
Higher exports, but lower mainland investment bank credit standards could slightly dampen investment
Despite weak growth in export markets, a strong NOK growth, but this effect will likely be largely offset by the
and wage growth well above levels in other countries, overall very low interest rate level. A possible sharp es-
mainland exports have remained at a higher level than calation of the euro crisis and a new financial crisis

Norway: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009(NOKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 1,028 3.7 2.4 3.7 3.5 3.0
Government consumption 531 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5
Fixed investment 516 -5.2 6.4 7.2 4.9 3.7
- gross investment, mainland 349 -2.5 8.0 3.2 3.7 3.7
- gross investment, oil 144 -14.3 9.1 20.0 8.0 4.0
Stockbuilding* 14 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports 929 1.8 -1.4 1.6 1.1 1.3
- crude oil and natural gas 416 -4.8 -6.2 2.5 0.0 0.0
- other goods 277 2.5 -0.4 0.0 2.0 2.5
Imports 660 9.9 3.5 3.0 3.9 3.0
GDP 2,357 0.7 1.4 3.4 2.4 2.3
GDP, mainland 1,876 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.8

Unemployment rate, % 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9
Consumer prices, % y/y 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.1
Core inflation, % y/y 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1
Annual w ages, % y/y 3.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3
Current account (NOKbn) 313.6 393.9 437.1 482.9 497.5
- % of GDP 12.4 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.1
Trade balance, % of GDP 12.4 13.8 14.6 15.1 14.8

General govt budget balance (NOKbn) 284.5 375.1 400.0 435.0 450.0
- % of GDP 11.3 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.6
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)


■ Norway

could, however, result in much tighter credit standards, Norwegian manufacturing production rises
and this is probably one of the key risks to the Norwe-
gian economy.

Inflation to edge higher
Strong domestic demand growth will contribute to strong
production growth in the years ahead. However, thanks
to high immigration we do not expect labour shortages to
become a major problem. Nor do we expect major bot-
tlenecks in the labour market despite shortages in some
skilled areas. Consequently, wage growth should not pick
up sharply, but still remain relatively high at just above
4% in the years ahead.

Wage growth just above 4%, strong domestic demand
Higher income growth -> higher consumption growth
growth and a relatively stable NOK suggest that inflation
will edge higher in coming years. Core inflation may rise
to 2% over the forecast period, up from 1% at present,
but to drive inflation above the 2½% target, cost growth
would have to be higher.

Gradually higher interest rates
Against the background of strong growth, a relatively
tight labour market, somewhat higher inflation and
slightly improved prospects globally, Norges Bank will
want to hike interest rates during the forecast period. Al-
so the steady increases in house prices and credit growth
from high levels suggest higher interest rates. However,
with below-target inflation and domestic economic
growth largely matching capacity growth, Norges Bank Supply and demand growth almost identical
will not be in a hurry. In the absence of rate hikes in
neighbouring countries, an aggressive monetary policy
line would only strengthen the NOK to levels that would
cause inflation to drop further below target.

At the time of writing the NOK has strengthened quite
significantly against the EUR, but measured in terms of
the trade-weighted exchange rate, the NOK strengthening
is far more modest. We expect Norges Bank to hike its
policy rate twice next year, but these moves should not
result in a long-lasting period of NOK strengthening. In
2014 the pace of monetary tightening may be increased
further, but as interest rates in other countries are also
likely to go up, Norges Bank can hike its policy rates
without risking excessive NOK strengthening. NOK not so strong in trade-weighted terms

There is a clear risk that the high domestic demand
growth could result in increased capacity problems, high-
er wage growth and consequently gradually higher infla-
tion than we project. If so, Norges Bank will act more
aggressively, accepting the effect on the NOK. And the
NOK strengthening would contribute to preventing infla-
tion from rising above target. If Norges Bank chooses to
focus less on meeting the inflation target and more on
preventing surging house prices and household credit
growth, the result may be a combination of higher inter-
est rates and a stronger NOK. However, judging from the
bank’s rhetoric it is not about to change its priorities.

Erik Bruce
erik.bruce@nordea.com +47 2248 4449


■ Denmark

Languishing economic growth
 Rising activity towards 2014 Despite the prospect of a historically high savings ratio
our forecast assumes that consumer spending will gradu-
 Housing market improvement ally increase towards the end of 2014. The accelerating
 Delayed effect from public money flow consumer spending growth will partly be driven by a
pent-up consumption need and partly by generally im-
 Negative central bank rates work proved sentiment about the Danish economy. Not least
the prospect of increasing employment and a pick-up in
Low growth and significant uncertainty characterise the the housing market will boost Danish households’ pro-
Danish economy; activity has been stuck at largely the pensity to consume over the forecast period.
same level since the autumn of 2010. Over coming quar-
ters, we expect the Danish economy to gradually return Housing market shows signs of healing
to the growth track this year, expanding at a rate of 0.7% Since mid-2008 the ailing housing market has been a
this year, accelerating to 1.9% in 2013 and 2.1% in 2014. millstone around the neck of the Danish economy. The
contracting housing wealth, slower credit growth and his-
On the domestic front the expected reversal of economic torically low activity in the construction sector are some
trends will be driven by households’ large pent-up poten- of the main reasons why consumer spending has stagnat-
tial, which will gradually turn into growing consumer ed. However, the latest monthly property price data from
spending. At the same time, growth is underpinned by a Statistics Denmark suggest that housing prices have sta-
delayed effect from the public sector, with expected posi- bilised since the start of the year. We believe this devel-
tive contributions from consumer spending and invest- opment marks the beginning of a new regime in the Dan-
ment. ish housing market where the historically low funding
costs and substantial pent-up demand over time will lead
Consumers hang on to their money to market consolidation.
Although the payout of saved-up early retirement money
is close to DKK 20bn (already surpassing official fore- But prices will be kept in check by a still large supply of
casts), the effect on retail sales and consumer spending unsold homes, low turnover and high youth unemploy-
has so far not materialised. Instead many have chosen up ment, which limits the number of first-time buyers.
save up more; total household bank deposits have Trapped between these two opposing trends, housing
swelled to an all-time high. The Danish economy there- prices are likely to remain more or less unchanged during
fore lacks the boost to activity that normally results from the rest of the year. Into 2013 we expect housing prices
consumer spending. Moreover, the government’s scope to slowly edge higher, surpassing expected inflation
for stimulating economic activity through its tax policy is again in 2014. The moderately rising housing prices will
limited. first and foremost be concentrated in the large cities
where demographics suggest growing upward pressure
on demand.

Denmark: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (DKKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 815 1.9 -0.8 0.6 1.8 1.9
Government consumption 497 0.3 -1.3 0.4 0.8 0.8
Fixed investment 314 -3.7 0.2 2.8 4.0 4.7
- government investment 33 8.5 5.2 8.5 -12.0 2.5
- residential investment 80 -7.4 8.8 -5.8 4.7 5.0
- business fixed investment 201 -4.4 -3.8 5.0 7.1 4.9
Stockbuilding* -20 0.1 0.0 0.0
Exports 794 3.2 7.0 2.0 2.9 3.5
Imports 731 3.5 5.2 2.6 3.6 3.6
GDP 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.1
Nominal GDP (DKKbn) 1,668 1,772 1,783 1,818 1,879 1,949

Gross unemployment level, '000 persons 164.5 162.1 165.0 168.7 163.2
Hourly earnings, % y/y 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1
Nominal house prices, one-family, % y/y 2.8 -2.8 -4.3 1.2 1.9
Current account (DKKbn) 96.9 119.1 105.0 95.0 85.0
- % of GDP 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4
General govt. budget balance (DKKbn) -47.4 -34.5 -71.0 -40.0 -10.0
- % of GDP -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5
Gross public debt, % of GDP 42.9 46.6 45.5 44.5 43.0


■ Denmark

Negative central bank rates a success Stagnant consumption
During the debt crisis the Danish central bank has been
forced to pursue a very proactive monetary policy to
keep the DKK stable versus the EUR. As a vital part of
this defence, the central bank cut its CD rate to -0.20% in
early July. It is the first time in Denmark’s history that
the CO rate is in negative territory. So far this move has
had the desired effect. The DKK has stabilised at a solid
level against the EUR without the central bank needing
to intervene in the market. This contrasts sharply with the
situation in May and June when more than DKK 36bn
was sold to defend the Danish fixed exchange rate re-
gime.

Public money flow drying out
In a bid to break the current economic deadlock the gov- The central bank’s CD rate is negative
ernment has decided to bring forward public investment
projects to the tune of DKK 19bn. At the same time pub-
lic spending is budgeted to grow by DKK 18bn this year
and an additional DKK 8bn in 2013 – corresponding to
real growth of 1.5% and 0.1%, respectively. Despite the-
se intentions public spending decreased by 1.0% in H1,
while public investment only increased very modestly.
So the Danish economy has so far not received the origi-
nally planned boost from fiscal policy. The explanation
to this sluggishness should be found in the long imple-
mentation period for public investment and in the fact
that public-sector spending historically has been very dif-
ficult to fine-tune. Against this background, there is a
likelihood of a strong ketchup effect in coming quarters, Improved competitiveness
which will help pull the Danish economy out of the dol-
drums provided that the government fulfils its own plans.

Improved competitiveness drive exports forward
After a brief dip at the beginning of the year, exports are
growing again – partly driven by sustained growth in key
export markets, partly by improved competitiveness.
This is chiefly a result of a weakening of the trade-
weighted DKK, which has made Danish products com-
paratively cheaper in international markets.

But also the past year’s sharp drop in the pace of wage
growth combined with productivity gains means that unit
labour costs now increase more slowly than in Den-
mark’s key export markets. And although the effect of Decoupling between employment and house prices
the lower unit labour costs will not feed though until
slightly longer out, it is a vital precondition for maintain-
ing the necessary momentum in exports.

Helge J. Pedersen
helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 33333126

Jan Størup Nielsen
jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com +45 33333171


■ Finland

Finnish economy has cooled down across the board
 Exports will not recover until 2013 for instance, turned down again in the first half of the
year. In our forecast, we assume export volumes to con-
 Growth in private consumption will slow down tinue declining in the latter part of the year. The decreas-
 Employment will fall less than previously forecast ing world trade growth will weaken production expecta-
tions globally and decrease investment needs. This is bad
 Public sector deficit will decrease news to the Finnish export industry, as its main products
are raw materials, production supplies and investment
As expected, economic activity has decreased in Finland goods. We expect international demand to strengthen
across the board after the first quarter of this year. Ex- moderately in 2013. Export volumes will increase but
ports have contracted, investment has continued to de- growth will still remain modest.
cline and the growth in private consumption has slowed
down. Imports have decreased more than exports, which Growth in private consumption to slow down
is, in particular, a sign of weakening in domestic demand. Private consumption increased at a brisk pace in Q1 this
What is positive, is that employment has not yet weak- year compared to Q4 2011. This was a result of the one-
ened. However, it is probably only a question of time be- off additional salary items based on collective agree-
fore it does. ments, which boosted retail sales, and the car tax hike
that entered into force at the beginning of April, which
Based on preliminary data, the economy contracted in Q2 made people purchase new cars earlier than they other-
compared to the previous quarter. Our forecast assumes wise would have. The growth in retail sales volumes
that the decline continues in Q3. This means that we be- slowed down markedly in Q2 and in July it stopped alto-
lieve the Finnish economy is in recession, just like many gether. Car sales, too, have decreased sharply. Thanks to
other European countries. As in our previous forecast, the strong beginning of the year, private consumption
however, we believe the recession will not last long and will significantly boost the economic growth this year
there is no need to change the previous GDP growth despite the recent cooling.
forecast of 0.8% for this year. On the other hand, interna-
tional trade has cooled down more than expected, which For the remaining part of the year and for 2013, the out-
indicates that an export-led recovery from the recession look for private consumption will remain weak. The in-
will be much slower than previously estimated. That is crease in salaries and pensions as well as the decrease in
why we have lowered our forecast for economic growth mortgage interest rates will support households' purchas-
in Finland in 2013 to 1.2% (previously 1.6%). In 2014, ing power. The growth in purchase power will, however,
we expect growth to speed up to 2.8% as especially the be restrained by tax increases and the expected weaken-
North-European economies will recover. ing in employment. Taxes will increase as the value add-
ed tax will be raised and no inflation adjustments of in-
Exports will not recover until 2013 come limits will be made in the income tax brackets. In
Finnish goods exports have varied widely over the past addition, the rather rapid growth in consumer prices will
year – and the variation has taken place around a decreas- continue and erode purchasing power. Consumer prices
ing trend. New orders received by the industrial sector, are expected to rise by 2.5% next year. The household
Finland: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 94 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.3 2.0
Government consumption 43 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
Fixed investment 34 1.9 6.8 -3.2 0.6 3.8
Stockbuilding* -2 0.5 1.1 -0.3 0.3 0.1
Exports 64 7.5 2.6 -1.7 2.6 7.1
Imports 62 6.9 5.7 -3.0 2.9 6.2
GDP 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8
Nominal GDP (EURbn) 172.3 178.8 189.4 196.0 201.6 210.1

Industrial production, % y/y 8.3 0.9 -3.0 2.0 4.0
Hourly w ages, % y/y 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.0
Current account (EURbn) 2.9 -2.2 -0.5 0.4 1.2
- % of GDP 1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.6
Trade balance (EURbn) 2.6 -1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.8
- % of GDP 1.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4

General govt budget balance (EURbn) -4.5 -1.2 -1.0 -0.1 1.0
- % of GDP -2.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5
Gross public debt (EURbn) 90.0 93.0 99.0 104.1 108.4
- % of GDP 50.3 49.1 50.5 51.6 51.6

■ Finland

savings rate continues to decline which means that an in- Cooling of world trade brings problems to exports
creasing part of income is used for consumption. The ac-
commodating monetary policy is well timed as the con-
sumption outlook would be much gloomier without it.

Investment to decline, employment to weaken
The bleak short-term outlook for exports, production and
consumption as well as the major uncertainty over the
Euro area developments will eat away economic agents'
confidence and thus decrease willingness to invest and
weaken employment prerequisites. Machinery and
equipment investment increased sharply last year but
turned down again already in the beginning of this year.
The decline is expected to continue at least for the rest of
this year. Construction investment is also expected to de-
Weak sentiment points to an outright fall in GDP
cline. The decrease in the number of granted construction
permits indicates that the decline in residential and other
construction will continue and even steepen during the
latter part of the year. Reconstruction will compensate
for the decline in new construction.

We expect both the traditional machinery and equipment
investment and construction investment to increase again
in 2013. A precondition for this, however, is that the
global economy will grow as forecast, the Euro area debt
crisis will clear up and confidence will return.

The labour market has provided very positive surprises
this year. Employment measured with the number of
people has not weakened (although the number of work- A decline in GDP is bad news for employment
ing hours has probably started to decrease) and the num-
ber of unemployed people has not started to increase.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has stabilised at
7.5% in recent months. The unemployment rate for 2012
seems to remain at 7.7% (the previous forecast was
8.0%), which is lower than in 2011. We still expect un-
employment to increase, especially in 2013 with the un-
employment rate rising to an average of 8%.

Slower decrease in public sector deficit
Tax revenues will increase at a slower pace due to the
sluggish economic growth, even though income taxation
will be tightened and value added tax will be raised. The
public sector deficit will, however, continue to decline.
The deficit is estimated to decrease to 0.1% of GDP in Confidence + labour market = weak consumption
2013 and turn into a small surplus in 2014. The govern-
ment's annual borrowing need will remain at EUR 4–6bn
during the forecast period, which will increase the public
debt close to 52% of the value of total production already
in 2013.

Pasi Sorjonen
pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com +358 9 165 59942


■ USA

Moving slowly forward
 If a perfect storm of fiscal chaos is avoided … After all, the economy’s fundamentals are much im-
proved. Businesses are highly profitable, banks have re-
 ... progress towards full employment in 2014 capitalised and the deleveraging process in the private
 Stronger underlying inflation pressures set to emerge sector has come a long way. Still, households – especial-
ly younger families – are likely to continue the process of
 Fed to start tightening by mid-2014 balance sheet repair. Home prices seem to have bot-
tomed, but the expected slow price increases provide lim-
US economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the ited support to household net worth going forward.
next few years through 2014, constrained by household
deleveraging, fiscal restraint, subpar global demand, In 2014 growth is expected to slow to a pace more in line
slower working-age population growth and a deteriora- with potential. Full employment, defined as an unem-
tion of job skills. ployment rate of 7%, should be achieved in late 2014.

The US economy clearly lost momentum during Q2 QE3 only in case of policy errors
2012, but recent economic data paint a slightly brighter The effects of the drought in the Midwest on food com-
picture, pointing towards GDP growth of 1½-2% in H2 modity prices and a rebound in oil prices are likely to
2012. Stronger disposable income growth, easier finan- push headline inflation meaningfully higher by mid-
cial conditions and bank lending standards, continued 2013.
housing recovery, the end of the payback for the warm
winter weather and less drag from seasonal adjustment With the business cycle adjustment more or less com-
distortions suggest that economic momentum will pick pleted in 2014, signs of stronger underlying inflation
up slightly in the near term. pressures are projected to emerge in the latter part of the
forecast horizon. As a result, we expect the Fed to start
However, while the threat from the Euro-area crisis cur- raising policy rates and gradual unwind its securities
rently appears less menacing, US fiscal challenges holdings around mid-2014.
around the end of this year imply that risks to the US out-
look over the next two to three quarters remain tilted to In the more immediate future, however, the Fed is likely
the downside. The probability of another US recession is later this month to postpone the expected first rate hike
uncomfortably high at 20-25%, in our view. from late 2014 to mid-2015. In our view, the central bank
is currently overestimating the labour market slack and
On the other hand, an orderly resolution of the pending hence underestimating the longer-term risk of inflation.
fiscal issues, as assumed in our baseline scenario, should Additional asset purchases (QE3) by the Fed are not ex-
pave the way for stronger confidence and hence brighter pected unless the Euro-area crisis blows up again or if
economic prospects in 2013, when growth is projected to US policymakers fail to resolve the pending fiscal issues
exceed potential assumed at around 2% annually through in an orderly manner.
most of the year.

USA: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (USDbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 9,845.9 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1
Government consumption and investment 2,967.2 0.6 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9 -0.3
Private fixed investment 1,703.5 -0.2 6.6 9.4 6.9 6.9
- residential investment 354.2 -3.7 -1.4 11.7 9.4 12.4
- equipment and softw are 898.3 8.9 11.0 8.3 6.9 6.0
- non-residential structures 451.1 -15.6 2.8 10.2 4.5 3.5
Stockbuilding* -154.2 1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Exports 1,587.5 11.1 6.7 4.3 5.2 5.3
Imports 1,976.2 12.5 4.8 4.2 5.7 5.4
GDP 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2
Nominal GDP (USDbn) 13,973.7 14,498.9 15,075.7 15,716.1 16,276.1 16,885.0

Industrial production, % y/y 5.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.3
Consumer prices ex. energy and food, % y/y 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2
Current account (USDbn) -442.0 -465.9 -471.5 -569.7 -506.5
- % of GDP -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0

Federal budget balance (USDbn) -1,293.5 -1,300.0 -1,100.0 -900.0 -700.0
- % of GDP -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.5 -4.1
Gross public debt, % of GDP 95.2 99.5 106.5 112.0 116.2


■ USA

A perfect storm of fiscal chaos hopefully avoided Moving slowly forward
Three US fiscal issues pose a threat to the economic out-
look: the so-called fiscal cliff, another increase in the
Treasury debt ceiling and the need for longer-term fiscal
sustainability.

As we approach the end of the year, attention will focus
even more sharply on the risk of the fiscal cliff – the un-
fortunate coincidence of about USD 600bn in tax in-
creases and spending cuts that will take effect next year,
should Congress not act to change current law. Failure to
scale back the fiscal cliff could knock as much as 4¼%
off real GDP in 2013, enough to push the US economy
back into recession. Moreover, the Treasury is likely to
hit the debt ceiling again in December. Assuming it uses
Slow progress towards full employment in late 2014
the accounting strategies that have been employed in the
past, the Treasury seems likely to be able to finance gov-
ernment operations under the current limit until some-
time in February 2013, by which point Congress must
raise the debt ceiling. Failure to do so would imply de-
fault on some of the US government’s obligations.

With both political parties in full campaigning mode,
none of these issues are likely to be resolved before the
presidential elections on 6 November. As seen too often
during the past two years, there will most likely be plenty
of political brinkmanship and the accompanying uncer-
tainty will probably come at a cost to the economy and
the financial markets later this year and in early 2013.
The longer the uncertainty persists, the more likely it will Stronger underlying inflation pressures in 2014
hurt confidence, hiring, investment and spending.

However, our expectation is that when pressured by the
threat of another recession, policymakers will take action
to reduce the fiscal drag on growth (to around 0.5% of
GDP) either during the so-called lame duck session after
the election or in January when the new government
takes office. Obviously, the outcome of the November
elections will be very crucial to how the fiscal debate
plays out. In this context, the congressional election re-
sults will be at least as important as who wins the White
House, Obama or Romney.

Extending the otherwise expiring tax cuts and other eas-
ing measures and repealing the automatic federal spend- Recession if economy is pushed off the fiscal cliff
ing cuts would significantly reduce the risk of recession, 1 1
% points Fiscal policy impact on GDP growth % points
but at the cost of a substantially larger budget deficit.
0 0
Thus, with an extension of current policy federal debt
held by the public would rise from 70% of GDP today to -1 -1

around 90% by 2022 compared to around 60% if current
-2 -2
law is not changed. In other words, apart from resolving
the fiscal cliff issue and raising the debt ceiling policy- -3 -3
makers will also soon have to address the need to restore
-4 -4
longer-term fiscal sustainability in order to shift the risk
Current law Current policy
to the economic outlook from negative to positive. -5 -5
2011 2012 2013
Source: Nordea Marktes, Congressional Budget Office and Office of
Johnny Bo Jakobsen Management and Budget
johnny.jakobsen@nordea.com +45 3333 6178


■ Euro area

Restore confidence to end the recession
 Gradual recovery from year-end Restoring confidence is key to recovery
Why do we expect a recovery when numerous problems
 Helped by smarter interventions remain unsolved and deleveraging has only just begun?
 Significant downside risks to inflation Well, because we believe that decisions have been taken
and will be taken in the coming months that are decisive
 Spain heading for deeper recession and will help gradually restoring confidence in the Euro
area. After all, monetary policy is extremely lenient, ex-
The Euro area is in recession. The second quarter showed port markets are growing decently, the EUR is weaken-
GDP contraction and the third quarter most likely will ing and even if more fiscal tightening will be needed in
too. We expect a recovery starting around year-end and a the years to come at least the pace of tightening will be
very gradual pick-up of momentum during 2013. In 2014 slower. Confidence is the missing ingredient that will al-
growth will still be somewhat below the pre-crisis “nor- low these factors to work and pave the way for a very
mal” level. gradual recovery.

We have made a modest upward revision to growth this Restoring confidence takes more time than eroding it,
year, but otherwise kept the Euro-area forecast roughly and we do not in any expect that the debt crisis is about
unchanged compared with our May forecast revision. We to end. Solving the crisis requires massive deleveraging
have revised down our growth forecast for Spain in 2013 in the years to come, structural reforms, growth and
after the announcement of new austerity measures during building new credible institutions to prevent the same
the summer. kind of crisis from happening again. Restoring confi-
dence also requires that Greece starts implementing the
Recovery from year-end reforms agreed with the Troika.
It is fair to say that signs of recovery have been scant up
to this point. However, the most forward-looking indica- Interventions will work this time
tors for growth in the Euro area as a whole have at least In terms of the decisive action, the ECB seems ready to
stopped falling and stabilised at low levels. bring out Big Bertha – more or less the entire arsenal of
instruments is being considered. We believe ECB inter-
The contraction in Q2 was not as severe as one might ventions in the secondary market – done smarter this
have expected given the financial stress during that peri- time – combined with intervention in the primary market
od with Greek post-election chaos and a Spanish bank by the EFSF/ESM will reduce the level of stress in finan-
bailout. Some lagged adverse impact on the economy is cial markets and help restore the confidence that is need-
likely to be visible in the Q3 growth numbers, but we ex- ed to embark on a path to recovery.
pect Q3 to mark the bottom of the current business cycle. When the ECB intervened through its old programme
(the SMP) it did not work very well. Rather it reduced
Another reason that the Q2 numbers were not as bad as the incentive for eg Italy to do the right thing. Therefore,
feared is Germany. German growth remained resilient interventions to reduce financial stress never became
during the first half of the year driven to a large extent by credible. This time, the ECB will intervene with strict
the export sector and to some extent also the German conditionality – ie only in countries that have a bailout
consumers. At present, the survey-based indicators point programme with promises to reduce budget deficits and
to slightly negative growth in Germany in Q3.

Euro area: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 5,128 0.9 0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.3
Government consumption 1,987 0.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.9 -0.8
Fixed investments 1,735 -0.2 1.6 -3.0 1.1 2.4
Stockbuilding* -48 0.7 0.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.5
Exports 3,272 11.0 6.3 1.6 4.9 1.6
Imports 3,155 9.4 4.1 -2.3 2.9 1.4
Net exports* -0.8 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.2
GDP 1.9 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7
Nominal GDP, EUR bn 8,917 9,155 9,410 9,512 9,725 9,804

Industrial production, % y/y 4.3 2.7 -2.6 2.9 5.8
- core inflation** 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0
Current account, bn EUR -3.2 -1.1 33.1 21.0 17.0
Current account, % of GDP 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0
General government budget balance, % of GDP -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5
General government gross debt, % of GDP 85.3 87.2 90.9 93.9 96.4



Ekonomiska Utsikter, september 2012 (SE)

Ekonomiska Utsikter, september 2012 (SE)

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