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Expert currency weekly report
1. 27 APR – 30 APR 2015
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Buy on fear, sell on greed.
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
The trend is your friend.
Amateurs want to be right.
Professionals want to make money.
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2. REFERENCE RATE
(USD)
63.4006
REPO RATE 7.50%
REVERSE REPO 6.50%
CRR 4%
INFLATION -2.33%
KEY RATESAs on 24/04/2015
MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK
Indian Rupee after quite movement
in its trade in previous week lost its
strength and continued the positive
momentum for the whole week and
finally settled at fresh three and a
half month lows against the
greenback as dragged towards the
low of 63.6400 on Friday. Importers
demand of American currency on
back of weaker Equity Benchmark
Indices too aided in the sentiments.
New record noted was that Indian
foreign exchange reserves rose by
$2.8 bn to $ 343.2 bn in the week to
17 Apr. Key events in the coming
week is FOMC statement and Federal
Funds Rate which is expected to
remain same.
Rupee hits 3-1/2-month low of
63.56, down 24 paise vs dollar.
India FX Reserves, USD up to
$343.2B from previous
$340.41B.
Sterling hits 5-week high vs
dollar.
Japanese yen holds slightly
weaker after services price
data.
CURRENCIES
PREVIOUS
RATE
CURRENT
RATE
% CHANGE
USDINR 62.4700 63.6075 1.82
EURINR 67.4925 68.8625 2.02
GBPINR 93.7725 96.1475 2.53
JPYINR 52.6275 53.1950 1.07
3. USDINR
EURINR
USDINR last week traded on a bullish note and headed towards the upper band of channel
pattern. Now, further up move may face stiff resistance in the range of 63.8000-64.0000. If
reversals are to be taken at this point then rupee appreciation can be seen and immediate
support is seen around 63.2000-63.0000.
EURINR last week moved with sideways to positive momentum and closed strongly near to the
resistance level of 69.3250. In the bear trend, double bottom pattern is seen which indicates that
breakout in support of volumes can drift the counter towards the next resistance of 70.0000 while
near term support for the week is 68.1000.
4. CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
USDINR 63.2000 62.8000 62.5000 63.9000 64.2000 64.5000
EURINR 68.1000 67.4000 66.7000 69.3000 70.0000 70.6000
GBPINR 95.4000 94.8000 94.2000 96.5000 97.0000 97.5000
JPYINR 52.7000 52.3000 51.9000 53.6000 54.0000 54.5000
PIVOT TABLE
DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT
BLOOMBERG
ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS
LEVEL
28-APR-2015
7:30
PM
US
CB Consumer
Confidence
102.6 101.3
29-APR-2015
11:30
PM
US
FOMC Statement,
Federal Funds
Rate
<0.25% <0.25%
30-APR-2015
6:00
PM
US
Unemployment
Claims
297k 294k
01-MAY-2015
7:30
PM
US
ISM
Manufacturing
PMI
52.1 51.5
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES
UK Retail Sales increased by 4.2% compared with March 2014.
Second consecutive quarterly fall for New Zealand CPI (0.3%).
HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI edges down to one-year
low.