Science for Change Agents, Innovators & Entrepreneurs. Day 3
Complex systems in nature
Self-organisation & entropy
Chaos Theory & Modelling Chaos
Scale-free Networks & Power Laws
Designing resilient and self-organising human systems
The Cynefin Codel: Change Making in Simple, Complicated, Complex and Chaotic real-world contexts
MASTERCLASS FOR KAOS PILOTS, DENMARK
4. TODAY
COMPLEXITY
WORK WITH CYNEFIN MODEL, UNDERSTAND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE FIELDS OF SIMPLE, COMPLICATED, COMPLEX AND CHAOS AND HOW
THERE IS DIFFERENT METHODS TO APPLY WHEN YOU WORK IN THE
DIFFERENT FIELDS.
BEING ABLE TO ANALYZE AND UNDERSTAND IF A PROBLEM IS IN THE
VARIOUS FIELDS
23. “If biologists have ignored self-organization, it is not
because self-ordering is not pervasive and profound. It
is because we biologists have yet to understand how to
think about systems governed simultaneously by two
sources of order, Yet who seeing the snowflake, who
seeing simple lipid molecules cast adrift in water
forming themselves into cell-like hollow lipid vesicles,
who seeing the potential for the crystallization of life in
swarms of reacting molecules, who seeing the stunning
order for free in networks linking tens upon tens of
thousands of variables, can fail to entertain a central
thought: if ever we are to attain a final theory in
biology, we will surely, surely have to understand the
commingling of self-organization and selection. We will
have to see that we are the natural expressions of a
deeper order. Ultimately, we will discover in our
creation myth that we are expected after all.”
STUART KAUFFMAN
44. EDGE OF
STASIS INSTABILITY
CHAOS
DIVERSITY LOW OPTIMAL HIGH
FLOW OF
LOW OPTIMAL HIGH
INFO
RICHNESS OF
LOW OPTIMAL HIGH
CONNECTIONS
ANXIETY LOW OPTIMAL HIGH
POWER HIGH OPTIMAL LOW
50. “Thinking more deeply about
institutions and complexity raises major
dilemmas for development
interventions. On the one hand,
tackling poverty, achieving social
justice and protecting the environment
clearly require institutional
transformation. On the other,
institutions cannot be effectively
changed in a neatly planned, top-down
manner.”
JIM WOODHILL
51. “Don’t disturb complicated systems
that have been around for a very long
time. We don’t understand their logic…
Leave it the way we found it, regardless
of scientific ‘evidence’.”
N. NICHOLAS TALEB
52. REMEMBER
DYNAMIC, RICH INTERACTIONS
DIFFERENT PEOPLE, DIFFERENT LEVELS
FEEDBACK LOOPS
NON-LINEAR, UNPREDICTABLE
EMERGENT CHARACTERISTICS
SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE LARGE IMPACTS
HISTORY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE
56. “Often the only way to improve a
complex system is to probe its limits by
forcing it to fail in various ways.”
KEVIN KELLY
57. The Cynefin Model
Complex Complicated
Known causes and effects
Understandable root causes
Use good practice
Use emergent practice
Focus on co-operation
(harness principles)
Focus on collaboration
Sense. Analyze. Respond
Sense. Explore. Respond
Disorder
Chaotic Simple
Predictable causes and effects
Unknowable causes / effects
Use best-practice
Use new practice
Focus on co-ordination
Focus on co-creation
Explore. Sense. Respond Sense. Categorize. Respond
58. BRAINSTORM PROBLEMS FOR EACH PART
OF THE CYNEFIN MODEL
WHAT KIND OF INTERVENTIONS /
APPROACHES?
59. “Part of reinventing the sacred is to heal...injuries that
we hardly know we suffer. If we are members of a
universe in which emergence and ceaseless creativity
abound, if we take that creativity as a sense of God we
can share, the resulting sense of the sacredness of all of
life and the planet can help orient our lives beyond the
consumerism and commodification the industrialized
world now lives, heal the split between reason and faith,
heal the split between science and the humanities, heal
the want of spirituality, heal the wound derived from
the false reductionist belief that we live in a world of
fact without values, and help us jointly build a global
ethic. These are what is at stake in finding a new
scientific worldview that enables us to reinvent the
sacred.”
STUART KAUFFMAN
61. WHAT KIND OF CONTEXT ARE YOU
WORKING IN?
HOW DOES THIS IMPACT YOUR POTENTIAL
INTERVENTIONS?
WHAT WOULD BE YOUR YEAR 1
IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY?
62. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
FRANK BARRETT & DAVID COOPERRIDER (AI)
PETER SENGE (SYSTEMS)
STANFORD ENCYLOPEDIA OF PHILOSOPHY
WIKIPEDIA
MICHELLE HOLLIDAY (COMPLEXITY)
BELTOWSKA & RAE (SYSTEMS IMAGES)
AIDAN WARD & RICHARD VERYARD (SYSTEMS)
RICHARD SEEL (COMPLEXITY)