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10	
  Trends	
  for	
  the	
  Chinese	
  
                                                      Wine	
  Industry	
  in	
  2013	
  




10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013             www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
       Wine                                                                                      Introduction
     Solutions




  Now	
  officially	
  in	
  the	
  Chinese	
  New	
  Year,	
  we	
  take	
  5me	
  to	
  recap	
  our	
  predic5ons	
  for	
  
                                     the	
  Chinese	
  Wine	
  Industry	
  in	
  2013.	
  	
  
                                                               	
  
  In	
  the	
  following	
  presenta;on	
  we	
  briefly	
  outline	
  10	
  trends	
  we	
  believe	
  will	
  shape	
  the	
  
                            Chinese	
  wine	
  industry	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  12	
  months.	
  	
  
                                                               	
  
      To	
  con;nue	
  the	
  discussion	
  join	
  us	
  on	
  TwiDer	
  (ChinaWineViews)	
  and	
  LinkedIn	
  	
  
                                                (China	
  Wine	
  Insight).	
  
                                                               	
  
10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                  	
                                www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
        Wine
      Solutions
                                                                                            1. Market Consolidation

     The	
  current	
  number	
  of	
  wine	
  sellers	
  in	
  the	
  Chinese	
  market	
  is	
  unsustainable.	
  2013	
  will	
  see	
  see	
  hard	
  
                                     trading	
  5mes	
  for	
  most	
  and	
  many	
  will	
  exit	
  the	
  industry	
  en5rely.	
  	
  
                                                                                                  	
  
  According	
  to	
  Radobank,	
  there	
  were	
  3,863	
  wine	
  importers	
  in	
  2011	
  (and	
  that	
  doesn’t	
  account	
  for	
  the	
  100’s	
  of	
  unofficial	
  
    ones),	
  up	
  73%	
  from	
  2010	
  and	
  up	
  200%	
  in	
  5	
  years.	
  Even	
  in	
  a	
  market	
  the	
  size	
  of	
  China,	
  this	
  number	
  is	
  unsustainable.	
  	
  
                                                                                                  	
  
  Just	
  in	
  the	
  last	
  few	
  weeks,	
  Dynasty,	
  one	
  of	
  China’s	
  largest	
  domes;c	
  wine	
  companies,	
  posted	
  a	
  profit	
  warning	
  amongst	
  
  difficult	
  trading	
  condi;ons.	
  The	
  take	
  away	
  from	
  writer	
  Doug	
  Young	
  of	
  the	
  South	
  China	
  Morning	
  Post	
  was	
  ‘A	
  new	
  profit	
  
  warning	
  from	
  Dynasty	
  reflects	
  a	
  burs;ng	
  bubble	
  in	
  China’s	
  overheated	
  wine	
  industry,	
  with	
  a	
  major	
  consolida;on	
  likely	
  
                                                                 to	
  start	
  in	
  the	
  second	
  half	
  of	
  this	
  year’.	
  
                                                                                                  	
  
                                                                                                  	
  


10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                                                    www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
       Wine
     Solutions
                                                                           2. Changing Expectations


                                            China	
  will	
  no	
  longer	
  be	
  seen	
  as	
  a	
  quick	
  win	
  market.	
  	
  
                                                                                       	
  
 As	
  compe;;on	
  becomes	
  increasingly	
  fierce,	
  the	
  ;me	
  for	
  easy	
  sales	
  and	
  high	
  margins	
  is	
  rapidly	
  becoming	
  
    a	
  thing	
  of	
  the	
  past.	
  	
  In	
  recent	
  years,	
  China	
  has	
  been	
  seen	
  by	
  many	
  as	
  the	
  answer	
  to	
  falling	
  margins	
  in	
  
                                                                     more	
  mature	
  markets.	
  
                                                                                       	
  
    However,	
  biDer	
  experience	
  is	
  teaching	
  many	
  wineries	
  that	
  doing	
  business	
  here	
  involves	
  a	
  significant	
  
                                learning	
  curve,	
  high	
  costs	
  and	
  o_en	
  lower	
  than	
  expected	
  volumes.	
  
                                                                                       	
  




10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                                       www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
       Wine                                                      3. Increased Commitments
     Solutions




  As	
  expecta5ons	
  change	
  and	
  compe55on	
  increases,	
  wineries	
  will	
  move	
  to	
  take	
  a	
  more	
  ac5ve	
  approach	
  
                                                                      in	
  the	
  market.	
  	
  
                                                                                  	
  
    ADemp;ng	
  to	
  beDer	
  understand	
  market	
  trends,	
  establishing	
  a	
  local	
  presence	
  and	
  increasing	
  ways	
  in	
  
     which	
  they	
  can	
  engage	
  and	
  influence	
  key	
  stakeholders	
  are	
  already	
  becoming	
  increasingly	
  common.	
  
                                                                                  	
  
  As	
  part	
  of	
  this,	
  2013	
  will	
  see	
  more	
  foreign	
  wineries	
  move	
  to	
  create	
  a	
  presence	
  on	
  Chinese	
  social	
  media.	
  
     Companies	
  across	
  various	
  industries	
  are	
  finding	
  social	
  media	
  to	
  be	
  an	
  effec;ve	
  channel	
  to	
  find	
  and	
  
                                engage	
  their	
  target	
  audience;	
  the	
  wine	
  industry	
  is	
  no	
  excep;on.	
  




10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                             www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
        Wine
      Solutions
                                                                            4. Online Coming of Age

              Online	
  wine	
  retailors	
  will	
  con5nue	
  to	
  increase	
  their	
  influence	
  as	
  a	
  major	
  sales	
  channel.	
  	
  
                                                                                 	
  

   According	
  to	
  Wine	
  Intelligence,	
  the	
  two	
  major	
  online	
  wine	
  retailors	
  are	
  currently	
  Yesmywine.com	
  and	
  
 Tmall.	
  They	
  point	
  to	
  two	
  reasons	
  behind	
  the	
  growth	
  of	
  online	
  sales;	
  improving	
  technology	
  and	
  the	
  ability	
  
                                for	
  trusted	
  online	
  retailors	
  to	
  reduce	
  concerns	
  about	
  fake	
  wines.	
  	
  
                                                                                 	
  
  We’d	
  add	
  a	
  third;	
  the	
  closeness	
  of	
  the	
  online	
  world	
  to	
  consumers.	
  The	
  future	
  wine	
  market	
  in	
  China	
  rests	
  
  with	
  the	
  younger	
  popula;on,	
  a	
  popula;on	
  whose	
  day-­‐to-­‐day	
  life	
  is	
  seamlessly	
  integrated	
  into	
  the	
  online	
  
        world.	
  For	
  these	
  consumers,	
  buying	
  online	
  not	
  only	
  allows	
  for	
  quick	
  price	
  comparison,	
  access	
  to	
  
  informa;on	
  and	
  user	
  generated	
  reviews	
  but	
  represents	
  a	
  natural	
  and	
  convenient	
  solu;on	
  that	
  fits	
  with	
  
                                                                  their	
  busy	
  lifestyles.	
  


10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                             www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
      Wine                                       5. A More Sophisticated Consumer
    Solutions




    2013	
  will	
  see	
  con5nued	
  diversifica5on	
  in	
  the	
  tastes	
  of	
  consumers	
  in	
  core	
  markets	
  such	
  as	
  Beijing,	
  
                                                           Shanghai	
  and	
  Guangzhou.	
  
                                                                               	
  
       Last	
  summer	
  saw	
  a	
  surge	
  in	
  sales	
  of	
  white	
  and	
  sparkling	
  wines	
  fueled	
  mainly	
  by	
  the	
  increasingly	
  
    important	
  female	
  segment.	
  2013	
  will	
  see	
  this	
  trend	
  con;nue	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  increasing	
  aDen;on	
  paid	
  to	
  
  bou;que	
  wines	
  from	
  non-­‐mainstream	
  regions.	
  The	
  Chinese	
  wine	
  lover,	
  especially	
  those	
  aged	
  under	
  35,	
  
             love	
  to	
  experiment	
  with	
  wines	
  and	
  are	
  increasingly	
  looking	
  to	
  less	
  mainstream	
  op;ons.	
  
                                                                               	
  




10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                           www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
       Wine                                                                                      6. Tier 2 & 3 Cities
     Solutions



       Following	
  the	
  trend	
  in	
  Tier	
  1	
  ci5es,	
  the	
  wine	
  market	
  in	
  China’s	
  5er	
  2	
  ci5es	
  will	
  begin	
  to	
  evolve.	
  
                                                                                     	
  
    Whilst	
  the	
  situa;on	
  in	
  regional	
  ci;es	
  is	
  currently	
  in	
  a	
  chao;c	
  state,	
  2013	
  will	
  see	
  the	
  first	
  signs	
  of	
  an	
  
 increasingly	
  professional	
  industry	
  emerge.	
  Before	
  that	
  happens	
  however,	
  many	
  sellers	
  in	
  these	
  ci;es	
  will	
  
                                            go	
  bust	
  before	
  a	
  more	
  professional	
  trade	
  appears.	
  
                                                                                     	
  
     On	
  the	
  consumer	
  front,	
  more	
  inhabitants	
  in	
  Tier	
  2	
  ci;es	
  will	
  start	
  to	
  move	
  towards	
  consuming	
  wine	
  
    opposed	
  to	
  just	
  gi_ing	
  it.	
  Wine	
  Intelligence	
  says	
  there	
  are	
  currently	
  around	
  20	
  million	
  consumers	
  of	
  
 imported	
  wine	
  in	
  China	
  –	
  just	
  1.5%	
  of	
  the	
  popula;on.	
  They	
  believe	
  this	
  will	
  increase	
  to	
  around	
  80	
  million	
  
                                  by	
  2020,	
  with	
  consumers	
  from	
  Tier	
  2	
  ci;es	
  making	
  up	
  the	
  bulk.	
  




10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                                    www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
      Wine                                                                         Trends Continued
    Solutions




                    7.	
  Trading	
  Down	
                                         8.	
  Miniaturiza5on	
  	
  
     Streamlining	
  of	
  distribu;on	
  models,	
  increasing	
      As	
  wine	
  moves	
  to	
  become	
  enjoyed	
  on	
  a	
  more	
  
     wine	
  knowledge,	
  a	
  changing	
  demographic	
  and	
            regular	
  basis,	
  single	
  serving	
  boDles	
  will	
  
      a	
  more	
  transparent	
  pricing	
  environment	
  will	
        become	
  increasingly	
  popular.	
  This	
  will	
  be	
  
            lead	
  to	
  an	
  increasing	
  willingness	
  for	
     especially	
  true	
  in	
  the	
  city-­‐based	
  convenience	
  
                   consumers	
  to	
  trade	
  down.	
                                         store	
  format.	
  
                                      	
                                                                	
  
                                      	
  




10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                  www.chinawinesolutions.com
China
      Wine                                                                                        Trends Continued
    Solutions




                   9.	
  A	
  Focus	
  on	
  Fake	
                                   10.	
  Chinese	
  Wine	
  to	
  Go	
  Global	
  
     The	
  Chinese	
  government	
  has	
  iden;fied	
  solving	
  
        the	
  issue	
  of	
  fake	
  wine	
  as	
  a	
  priority	
  for	
  the	
     While	
  the	
  focus	
  of	
  the	
  Chinese	
  wine	
  industry	
  
        industry.	
  2013	
  will	
  see	
  increased	
  pressure	
                    is	
  firmly	
  on	
  imported	
  wines	
  into	
  China,	
  2013	
  

     from	
  government,	
  industry	
  and	
  consumers	
  to	
                      will	
  see	
  more	
  Chinese	
  wineries	
  seek	
  lis;ngs	
  in	
  

         work	
  together	
  to	
  improve	
  this	
  problem.	
                            overseas	
  markets,	
  form	
  strategic	
  joint	
  

       Furthermore,	
  wineries	
  that	
  make	
  an	
  ac;ve	
                         ventures	
  and	
  purchase	
  foreign	
  wineries..	
  	
  

          effort	
  to	
  employ	
  ac;ve	
  an;-­‐counterfeit	
  
     measures	
  will	
  benefit	
  from	
  posi;ve	
  consumer	
  
                                   sen;ment.	
  

                                            	
  
10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                             www.chinawinesolutions.com
Contact	
  Us	
  
     Contact	
  us	
  to	
  discuss	
  more	
  about	
  any	
  of	
  the	
  points	
  raised	
  in	
  this	
  presenta;on	
  or	
  to	
  inquire	
  
     about	
  how	
  our	
  flexible	
  and	
  cost	
  effec;ve	
  solu;ons	
  to	
  help	
  wine	
  business	
  succeed	
  in	
  the	
  
     Chinese	
  market.	
  	
  

                                                                                                                 Contact	
  Details	
  
                                                                                                                       	
  
                                                                                                   Winterless	
  Center	
  B-­‐1201,	
  1	
  West	
  
                                                                                                 Dawang	
  Rd,	
  Chaoyang	
  District,	
  Beijing,	
  
                                                                                                                 China,	
  100026.	
  
                                                                                                                           	
  
                                                                                                   E:	
  nick@chinawinesolu;ons.com	
  
                                                                                                            M:	
  +86	
  18210211487	
  
                                                                                                   W:	
  www.chinawinesolu;ons.com	
  	
  


                                                                                                                 gli                         	
  
                                                                                                                              	
  


10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013                                                                             www.chinawinesolutions.com

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10 Trends Shaping China's Wine Market in 2013

  • 1. 10  Trends  for  the  Chinese   Wine  Industry  in  2013   10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 2. China Wine Introduction Solutions Now  officially  in  the  Chinese  New  Year,  we  take  5me  to  recap  our  predic5ons  for   the  Chinese  Wine  Industry  in  2013.       In  the  following  presenta;on  we  briefly  outline  10  trends  we  believe  will  shape  the   Chinese  wine  industry  over  the  next  12  months.       To  con;nue  the  discussion  join  us  on  TwiDer  (ChinaWineViews)  and  LinkedIn     (China  Wine  Insight).     10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013   www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 3. China Wine Solutions 1. Market Consolidation The  current  number  of  wine  sellers  in  the  Chinese  market  is  unsustainable.  2013  will  see  see  hard   trading  5mes  for  most  and  many  will  exit  the  industry  en5rely.       According  to  Radobank,  there  were  3,863  wine  importers  in  2011  (and  that  doesn’t  account  for  the  100’s  of  unofficial   ones),  up  73%  from  2010  and  up  200%  in  5  years.  Even  in  a  market  the  size  of  China,  this  number  is  unsustainable.       Just  in  the  last  few  weeks,  Dynasty,  one  of  China’s  largest  domes;c  wine  companies,  posted  a  profit  warning  amongst   difficult  trading  condi;ons.  The  take  away  from  writer  Doug  Young  of  the  South  China  Morning  Post  was  ‘A  new  profit   warning  from  Dynasty  reflects  a  burs;ng  bubble  in  China’s  overheated  wine  industry,  with  a  major  consolida;on  likely   to  start  in  the  second  half  of  this  year’.       10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 4. China Wine Solutions 2. Changing Expectations China  will  no  longer  be  seen  as  a  quick  win  market.       As  compe;;on  becomes  increasingly  fierce,  the  ;me  for  easy  sales  and  high  margins  is  rapidly  becoming   a  thing  of  the  past.    In  recent  years,  China  has  been  seen  by  many  as  the  answer  to  falling  margins  in   more  mature  markets.     However,  biDer  experience  is  teaching  many  wineries  that  doing  business  here  involves  a  significant   learning  curve,  high  costs  and  o_en  lower  than  expected  volumes.     10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 5. China Wine 3. Increased Commitments Solutions As  expecta5ons  change  and  compe55on  increases,  wineries  will  move  to  take  a  more  ac5ve  approach   in  the  market.       ADemp;ng  to  beDer  understand  market  trends,  establishing  a  local  presence  and  increasing  ways  in   which  they  can  engage  and  influence  key  stakeholders  are  already  becoming  increasingly  common.     As  part  of  this,  2013  will  see  more  foreign  wineries  move  to  create  a  presence  on  Chinese  social  media.   Companies  across  various  industries  are  finding  social  media  to  be  an  effec;ve  channel  to  find  and   engage  their  target  audience;  the  wine  industry  is  no  excep;on.   10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 6. China Wine Solutions 4. Online Coming of Age Online  wine  retailors  will  con5nue  to  increase  their  influence  as  a  major  sales  channel.       According  to  Wine  Intelligence,  the  two  major  online  wine  retailors  are  currently  Yesmywine.com  and   Tmall.  They  point  to  two  reasons  behind  the  growth  of  online  sales;  improving  technology  and  the  ability   for  trusted  online  retailors  to  reduce  concerns  about  fake  wines.       We’d  add  a  third;  the  closeness  of  the  online  world  to  consumers.  The  future  wine  market  in  China  rests   with  the  younger  popula;on,  a  popula;on  whose  day-­‐to-­‐day  life  is  seamlessly  integrated  into  the  online   world.  For  these  consumers,  buying  online  not  only  allows  for  quick  price  comparison,  access  to   informa;on  and  user  generated  reviews  but  represents  a  natural  and  convenient  solu;on  that  fits  with   their  busy  lifestyles.   10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 7. China Wine 5. A More Sophisticated Consumer Solutions 2013  will  see  con5nued  diversifica5on  in  the  tastes  of  consumers  in  core  markets  such  as  Beijing,   Shanghai  and  Guangzhou.     Last  summer  saw  a  surge  in  sales  of  white  and  sparkling  wines  fueled  mainly  by  the  increasingly   important  female  segment.  2013  will  see  this  trend  con;nue  as  well  as  increasing  aDen;on  paid  to   bou;que  wines  from  non-­‐mainstream  regions.  The  Chinese  wine  lover,  especially  those  aged  under  35,   love  to  experiment  with  wines  and  are  increasingly  looking  to  less  mainstream  op;ons.     10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 8. China Wine 6. Tier 2 & 3 Cities Solutions Following  the  trend  in  Tier  1  ci5es,  the  wine  market  in  China’s  5er  2  ci5es  will  begin  to  evolve.     Whilst  the  situa;on  in  regional  ci;es  is  currently  in  a  chao;c  state,  2013  will  see  the  first  signs  of  an   increasingly  professional  industry  emerge.  Before  that  happens  however,  many  sellers  in  these  ci;es  will   go  bust  before  a  more  professional  trade  appears.     On  the  consumer  front,  more  inhabitants  in  Tier  2  ci;es  will  start  to  move  towards  consuming  wine   opposed  to  just  gi_ing  it.  Wine  Intelligence  says  there  are  currently  around  20  million  consumers  of   imported  wine  in  China  –  just  1.5%  of  the  popula;on.  They  believe  this  will  increase  to  around  80  million   by  2020,  with  consumers  from  Tier  2  ci;es  making  up  the  bulk.   10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 9. China Wine Trends Continued Solutions 7.  Trading  Down   8.  Miniaturiza5on     Streamlining  of  distribu;on  models,  increasing   As  wine  moves  to  become  enjoyed  on  a  more   wine  knowledge,  a  changing  demographic  and   regular  basis,  single  serving  boDles  will   a  more  transparent  pricing  environment  will   become  increasingly  popular.  This  will  be   lead  to  an  increasing  willingness  for   especially  true  in  the  city-­‐based  convenience   consumers  to  trade  down.   store  format.         10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 10. China Wine Trends Continued Solutions 9.  A  Focus  on  Fake   10.  Chinese  Wine  to  Go  Global   The  Chinese  government  has  iden;fied  solving   the  issue  of  fake  wine  as  a  priority  for  the   While  the  focus  of  the  Chinese  wine  industry   industry.  2013  will  see  increased  pressure   is  firmly  on  imported  wines  into  China,  2013   from  government,  industry  and  consumers  to   will  see  more  Chinese  wineries  seek  lis;ngs  in   work  together  to  improve  this  problem.   overseas  markets,  form  strategic  joint   Furthermore,  wineries  that  make  an  ac;ve   ventures  and  purchase  foreign  wineries..     effort  to  employ  ac;ve  an;-­‐counterfeit   measures  will  benefit  from  posi;ve  consumer   sen;ment.     10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com
  • 11. Contact  Us   Contact  us  to  discuss  more  about  any  of  the  points  raised  in  this  presenta;on  or  to  inquire   about  how  our  flexible  and  cost  effec;ve  solu;ons  to  help  wine  business  succeed  in  the   Chinese  market.     Contact  Details     Winterless  Center  B-­‐1201,  1  West   Dawang  Rd,  Chaoyang  District,  Beijing,   China,  100026.     E:  nick@chinawinesolu;ons.com   M:  +86  18210211487   W:  www.chinawinesolu;ons.com     gli     10 Trends in the Chinese Wine Market for 2013 www.chinawinesolutions.com