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Date: 29 Jun 2012


 COMPANY REPORT

 SABECO & HABECO
 (Not listed – OTC)


  We would like to provide a yearly update on Sabeco & Habeco, the two
  largest beer producers of Vietnam with BUY recommendation for both                   Recommendation
  stocks.
                                                                                             Sabeco                 Habeco
  Saigon Alcohol Beer and Beverage Company (Sabeco) is the leading beer                        BUY                   BUY
  company in Vietnam with the market share of 47.5% in 2011. It was equitized in            1 year TP            1 year TP
  early 2008 and has not been listed yet. Currently, the State is holding an 89.59%        54,307 VND           47,428 VND
  stake in Sabeco.

  Hanoi Alcohol Beer and Beverage Company (Habeco) is the third largest beer
  company in Vietnam with the market share of 17.3% in 2011. It was equitized in
  late 2010 and has not been listed yet. As of 31 Dec 2011, the State is holding an
  81.79% stake in Habeco and Carlsberg holding 15.77%.
                                                                                       Estimate - Sabeco

  We believe that the Vietnamese beer market is highly potential in the next           Bn VND            2011A          2012E
                                                                                       Revenue           19,293         21,693
  few years.
                                                                                       Earnings           2,344          2,512
     According to Euromonitor, Vietnam’s beer market grew at 13% in volume in         EPS (VND)          3,556          3,808
      2011. This organization forecast this market will grow at a CAGR of ~7% in       Total Equity       9,646         10,664
      the next five years.                                                             Total Assets      10,377             n.a
                                                                                       Dividend
     According to Ministry of Trade and Industry, Vietnam’s beer market grew at                           2,000         2,200
                                                                                       (VND)
      12% p.a. in value in 2006-2010. This rate is expected to be 13% in 2011-
                                                                                       PE                     n.a          n.a
      2015 and 8% in 2016-2025.
                                                                                       PB                     n.a          n.a
     The habit of drinking beer of the Vietnamese is increasing which creates         ROE                 26.4%        24.7%
      stable demand for this industry.                                                 ROA                 14.5%           n.a


  Both Habeco & Sabeco have products of good quality and with well-known                                Source: SSI Research
  trademark which has been reinforced for many years. Their distribution
  networks are well-established and both companies have strong market positions
  in the Vietnamese beer market.
                                                                                       Estimate - Habeco
  Both Sabeco & Habeco still have room for foreign investors. We believe that
                                                                                       Bn VND              2011A        2012E
  when these two companies are listed, they will draw large attention from investors
                                                                                       Revenue              6,070        6,780
  as two leading consumer staple stocks.
                                                                                       Earnings               793          737
                                                                                       EPS (VND)            3,085        2,865
     At the market price of VND 48,000/share, Sabeco’s market cap is VND
                                                                                       Total Equity         3,813        4,126
      30,782 billion. It will rank No. 7, after VNM and before BVH.
                                                                                       Total Assets         5,470           n.a
     At the market price of VND 29,000/share, Habeco’s market cap is VND 6,722        Dividend
                                                                                                            1,500        1,500
      billion. It will rank No. 21, after SSI and before KDC.                          (VND)
                                                                                       PE                    n.a         n.a
  However, we see investment risks to include (1) Dependence on imported               PB                    n.a         n.a
  materials, (2) Liquidity risk, (3) Lack of information transparency and (4) Poor     ROE                21.8%       18.6%
  corporate governance.                                                                ROA                10.7%          n.a
                                                                                                        Source: SSI Research




www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                                    1
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                      2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 2011, both Sabeco and Habeco recognized declining net earnings YoY due to increase in input cost and
operating expenses. Moreover, demand became low in the context of economic difficulty. Sabeco’s 2011 net
income declined by 15.4% YoY to VND 2,344 billion. That of Habeco also decreased by 17.0% YoY to VND 793
billion. However, according to Euromonitor, these two companies continued to keep and reinforce their
market shares in 2011.

In general, their performance in 2011 is not as good as in 2010; however, the financial results are still positive in the
circumstances of low demand in 2011.

In specific, the size of Sabeco is approximately three times that of Habeco in terms of sales volume, market shares,
sales and net profit. In terms of asset efficiency, Sabeco is more effective than Habeco with higher ROE, ROA and
other asset turnover ratios. Habeco also has more debts relatively than Sabeco and in turn a lower interest coverage
ratio. However, both companies’ debts are still in a safe level.

2012 ESTIMATES

Sabeco: We estimate that net sales will increase by 12.4% YoY in 2012 to VND 21,693 billion thanks to 8.1%
increase in sales volume and ~4% in selling price. We forecast sales volume in 2012 to be 1,297 million liters which is
a little higher than Sabeco’s target of 1,250 million liters. We estimate net profit will increase by 7.2% YoY to 2,512
billion which is higher than VND 2,387 billion as planned. So far Sabeco has no plan to increase its charter capital in
2012, then 2012 EPS is estimated to be VND 3,808, up 7.1% YoY. Cash dividends are set at VND 2,200/share.

Habeco: We estimate that net sales will increase by 11.7% YoY to VND 6,780 billion thanks to 7.4% increase in sales
volume and ~4% in selling price. We forecast sales volume in 2012 to be 446 million liters which is higher than
Habeco’s target of 428 million liters. In our opinion, in 2012, weather condition in the North is much more favorable to
beer business than in 2011 thanks to hotter summer. We estimate net profit will decline by 7.1% YoY to 737 billion
which is higher than VND 668 billion as planned. So far Habeco has no plan to increase its charter capital in 2012,
then 2012 EPS is estimated to be VND 2,865, down 7.1% YoY. Cash dividends are set at VND 1,500/share.

INVESTMENT VIEW

Our current investment views over both Sabeco and Habeco are BUYat current OTC price with investment rationales
as follows:

 Highly potential Vietnam’s beer market (grow at 7% p.a.in volume in 2012-2016)

 Good quality, well-known trademark, well-established distribution network

 Strong market position (Sabeco: market share of 47.5% - No.1; Habeco: 17.3% - No.3 in 2011)

 Reasonable valuation as leading consumer staples companies.

        As far as we know, Sabeco is being traded at VND 48,000/share or 12.0x forward PE.

        As far as we know, Habeco is being traded at VND 29,000/share or 9.65x forward PE.

However, there are some risks including dependence on imported materials, liquidity risk, lack of information
transparency and poor corporate governance.
www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                         2
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                      2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST

1. 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE

    In 2011, both Sabeco and Habeco recognized declining net earnings YoY due to increase in input cost and
    operating expenses. Moreover, demand became low in the context of economic difficulty. Sabeco’s 2011 net
    income declined by 15.4% YoY to VND 2,344 billion andthat of Habeco also decreased by 17.0% YoY to VND 793
    billion. However, according to Euromonitor, these two companies continued to keep and reinforce their market
    shares in 2011. In 2011, the Vietnamese beer market saw the total volume growth of 13% to reach 2.6 billion
    liters. Sabeco continued to hold its leading position with the market share of 47.5%. In general, the size of
    Sabeco is approximately three times that of Habeco in terms of sales volume, market shares, sales and
    net profit (see below chart).

                                    Market share in Vietnam’s beer market (2010-2011)




                                                                                                      Source: Euromonitor

    SABECO

    In general, its performance in 2011 is not as good as in 2010; however, the financial result is still positive in the
    circumstances of low demand in 2011. Sabeco’s 2011 net income declined by 15.4% YoY to VND 2,344 billion.

     In 2011, sales increased by 11.2% to VND 19,293 billion thanks to 9.5% increase in sales volume (2011:
        1,200 million liters vs. 2010: 1,096 million liters) and around 1.55% increase on selling price on average.

     Gross margin declined to 21.1% in 2011 from 24.75% in 2010 due to increase in cost of main inputs including
        malt and sugar.

     Both selling and admin expenses increased much higher than growth of sales which in turn results in higher
        SG&A expenses over sales (2011: 7.4% vs. 2010: 6.2%). However, we think that these operating expense
        over sales ratios of Sabecoin 2011 are quite low in comparison with other leading consumer staple companies
        (VNM: 10.29%, MSN: 20.1%, KDC: 30.0%).



www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                         3
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                     2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST

     In 2011, even its debts balance slightly declined, its interest expense increased sharply (2.6 times) when
        lending interest rate was in an uptrend last year. As at 31 Dec 2012, its debts amounted to VND 1,524 billion,
        accounting for 9.2% of the total assets, of which 91% is long-term debts. Its debts are quite low and not an
        issue to Sabeco’s operation.

        Profit and Loss of Sabeco (2009-2011)

        Unit: VND m illion                                                             2009             2010              2011
        Sales                                                                 15,954,096       19,912,941       22,313,189
          YoY growth (%)                                                             76.0%            24.8%             12.1%
        Deductions                                                            (3,141,241)      (2,560,216)      (3,020,422)
        Net sales                                                             12,812,855       17,352,725       19,292,766
          YoY growth (%)                                                             78.8%            35.4%             11.2%
         Cost of goods sold                                                   (9,953,954)     (13,058,650)     (15,224,618)
        Gross profit                                                           2,858,901        4,294,075         4,068,148
          Gross margin (%)                                                           22.3%          24.75%              21.1%
        Financial income                                                          301,134          333,733           436,091
        Financial expense                                                       (461,215)        (324,102)         (316,672)
          in which: Interest expense                                             (49,109)         (93,105)         (244,556)
        Net financial income                                                    (160,082)             9,631          119,419
        Selling expense                                                         (627,215)        (836,329)       (1,067,551)
          YoY growth (%)                                                             34.4%            33.3%             27.6%
          % of net sales                                                              4.9%             4.8%              5.5%
        Administrative expense                                                  (231,357)        (232,950)          (364,036)
          YoY growth (%)                                                             -0.7%             0.7%             56.3%
          % of net sales                                                              1.8%             1.3%              1.9%
        Operating profit                                                       1,840,247        3,234,427         2,755,980
          Operating margin (%)                                                       14.4%            18.6%             14.3%
        Other income                                                                 47,992          26,199             47,702
        Other expense                                                             (21,316)         (35,770)          (43,220)
        Net other income                                                            26,676           (9,571)            4,483
        Income from associates/JVs                                                163,154          293,437           235,650
        Profit before tax                                                      2,030,077        3,518,293         2,996,113
          YoY growth (%)                                                           161.0%             73.3%            -14.8%
          PBT margin (%)                                                             15.8%            20.3%             15.5%
          Current CIT                                                          (320,143)        (752,157)          (688,824)
          Deferred CIT                                                             (9,208)           5,238            36,921
        Corporate Income Tax                                                    (329,352)        (746,919)          (651,902)
          % Effective CIT rate                                                       16.2%            21.2%             21.8%
        Net incom e                                                            1,700,725        2,771,374         2,344,211
          YoY growth (%)                                                           175.0%             63.0%            -15.4%
          Net margin (%)                                                             13.3%          15.97%              12.2%
        Net income/(loss) attributable to NCI                                       92,324         202,143            65,777
        Net incom e attributable to Parent's Shareholders                      1,608,402        2,569,231         2,278,435
        Basic EPS (VND)                                                              2,510            4,009             3,556
          YoY growth (%)                                                           212.6%             59.7%            -11.3%


                                                                Source: 2011-2010 Audited Financial Statements of Sabeco

    In 2011, Sabeco completed some key projects to increase its production capacity up to ~1.3 billion liters in 2011.
    Therefore, in 2011, Sabeco used ~92% of its designed capacity.

     Increase the production capacity of Saigon – Cu Chi Brewery Factory from 200 to 264 million liters;

     Construct Saigon – Ha Tinh Brewery Factory with the initial capacity of 50 million liters.

    HABECO

    Like Sabeco, the performance of Habeco in 2011 is not as good as in 2010; however, the financial result is still
    positive in the circumstances of low demand and unfavorable weather condition in the North (longer winter and
    cooler summer). Habeco’s 2011 net income declined by 17% YoY to VND 793 billion.
www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                               4
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                      2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST

     In 2011, sales increased by 19.4% to VND 6,070 billion thanks to 2.9% increase in sales volume (2011: 415.7
        million liters vs. 2010: 403.9 million liters) and around 16.03% increase on selling price on average.

     Gross margin also declined to 37.1% in 2011 from 42.3% in 2010 due to increase in cost of main inputs
        including malt and sugar.

     Both selling and admin expenses increased higher than growth of sales which in turn results in higher SG&A
        expenses over sales (2011: 18.8% vs. 2010: 18.4%). We think that these operating expense over sales ratios
        of Habeco in 2011 are quite high in comparison with other leading consumer staple companies (Sabeco:
        7.4%; VNM: 10.29%, MSN: 20.1%, KDC: 30.0%).

     In 2011, even its debts balance slightly declined, its interest expense increased sharply (1.65 times) when
        lending interest rate was in an uptrend last year. As at 31 Dec 2012, its debts amounted to VND 1,174 billion,
        accounting for 15.3% of the total assets, of which 90.5% is long-term debts.

        Profit and Loss of Sabeco (2009-2011)

        Unit: VND m illion                                                           2009             2010               2011
        Sales                                                                 5,649,448        7,033,732          8,227,513
          YoY growth (%)                                                          114.1%             24.5%             17.0%
        Deductions                                                           (1,876,705)      (1,950,668)        (2,157,540)
        Net sales                                                             3,772,743        5,083,064          6,069,973
          YoY growth (%)                                                          111.1%             34.7%             19.4%
         Cost of goods sold                                                  (2,364,750)      (2,934,373)        (3,817,554)
        Gross profit                                                          1,407,993        2,148,691          2,252,419
          Gross margin (%)                                                         37.3%             42.3%             37.1%
        Financial income                                                          65,171           71,866             70,167
        Financial expense                                                      (110,945)          (95,715)         (157,985)
          in which: Interest expense                                            (56,901)         (92,068)         (152,007)
        Net financial income                                                     (45,774)         (23,849)           (87,818)
        Selling expense                                                        (497,953)        (711,435)          (860,048)
          YoY growth (%)                                                           93.7%             42.9%             20.9%
          % of net sales                                                           13.2%             14.0%             14.2%
        Administrative expense                                                 (192,591)        (224,072)          (283,367)
          YoY growth (%)                                                          140.2%             16.3%             26.5%
          % of net sales                                                            5.1%              4.4%              4.7%
        Operating profit                                                         671,675       1,189,335          1,021,186
          Operating margin (%)                                                     17.8%             23.4%             16.8%
        Other income                                                              123,433          269,349             31,441
        Other expense                                                            (90,169)       (276,301)            (11,467)
        Net other income                                                          33,264            (6,952)           19,974
        Income from associates/JVs                                                 2,968          (18,945)          (18,056)
        Profit before tax                                                        707,907       1,163,438          1,023,104
          YoY growth (%)                                                           92.2%             64.3%            -12.1%
          PBT margin (%)                                                           18.8%             22.9%             16.9%
          Current CIT                                                         (131,646)        (212,474)          (240,877)
          Deferred CIT                                                             7,335            4,609             10,890
        Corporate Income Tax                                                   (124,311)        (207,865)          (229,987)
          % Effective CIT rate                                                     17.6%             17.9%             22.5%
        Net incom e                                                              583,596          955,573           793,117
          YoY growth (%)                                                           96.8%             63.7%            -17.0%
          Net margin (%)                                                           15.5%             18.8%             13.1%
        Net income/(loss) attributable to NCI                                    142,196          124,659             77,994
        Net incom e attributable to Parent's Shareholders                        441,400          830,914           715,123
        Basic EPS (VND)                                                            1,904             3,585             3,085
          YoY growth (%)                                                           86.3%             88.3%            -13.9%

                                                                 Source: 2011-2010 Audited Financial Statements of Habeco

        In 2011, Habeco also increased its production capacity by 45 million liters to ~ 600 million liters a year.
        Currently, Habeco uses around 69% of its designed capacity.
www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                              5
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                             2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST

    SABECO V.S. HABECO

    In general, the size of Sabeco is approximately three times that of Habeco in terms of sales volume,
    market shares, sales and net profit. In terms of asset efficiency, Sabeco is more effective than Habeco
    with higher ROE, ROA and other asset turnover ratios. Habeco also has more debts relatively than Sabeco
    and in turn a lower interest coverage ratio. However, both companies’ debts are still in a safe level.

     Sabeco is nearly three times larger than Habeco.


                 Sales volume (million liters)                                                 Market share

                                                                                                                           47.50%
     1,400                                                            50%
                                                    1,200                                                   45.40%
     1,200                                                            45%
                                    1,096
                                                                      40%
     1,000       906                                                          31.80%         33.00%
                                                                      35%
      800                                                             30%
      600                                                             25%
                                            404             416                                                                17.30%
                       305                                            20%
      400                                                                                                         16.10%
                                                                      15%
                                                                                  9.90%          10.50%
      200                                                             10%
        -                                                             5%
                    2009                2010           2011           0%
                                                                               2008            2009             2010        2011
                               Sabeco    Habeco
                                                                                               Sabeco     Habeco



                             Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research                                      Source: Euromoitor, SSI Research


                     Net Sales (VND billion)                                           Net profit (VND billion)


     25,000                                                           3,000
                                                                                                        2,771
                                                                                                                           2,344
                                                    19,293            2,500
     20,000
                                    17,353
                                                                      2,000
     15,000                                                                      1,701
                 12,813                                               1,500
     10,000                                                                                                     956                793
                                                                      1,000
                                                            6,070                        584
                                            5,083
      5,000            3,773                                           500

                                                                         -
            -                                                                         2009                2010               2011
                    2009                2010           2011
                                                                                                Sabeco      Habeco
                               Sabeco    Habeco



                             Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research                             Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research


     Cost structure of Sabeco and Habeco is so different. It is not only in 2011 but it is also the case for the last
        three years. And we are so surprised about this fact. Habeco’s gross margin is significantly higher than that of
        Sabeco (37.1% vs. 21.1%). However, selling and admin expense over sales ratios of Sabeco are significantly
        lower than those of Habeco (7.4% vs. 18.8%). Finally, Habeco’s net margin is still a little higher than that of
        Sabeco (13.1% vs. 12.2%). We do not get the explanation for the different in gross margin from management
        of Sabeco and Habeco.

www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                                           6
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                                 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST


                     Gross and Net Margin                                             Operating expenses/Net sales


    45%                                                                  16%
    40%                                                                  14%
    35%                                                                  12%
    30%                                                                  10%
    25%                                                                      8%
    20%                                                                      6%
    15%                                                                      4%
    10%                                                                      2%
     5%                                                                      0%
     0%                                                                                2009                    2010                  2011
                  2009                   2010                2011
                                                                                               Sabeco - Selling expenses/Net sales
                 Sabeco - Gross margin          Habeco - Gross margin                          Habeco - Selling expenses/Net sales
                 Sabeco - Net margin            Habeco - Net margin                            Sabeco - Admin expenses/Net sales
                                                                                               Habeco - Admin expenses/Net sales



                             Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research                                 Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research


     Sabeco is more effective than Habeco with higher ROE, ROA and other asset turnover ratios.


                                 ROE                                                                   ROA


    40%                                                                 20%                              17.9% 16.5%
                                  34.4%
    35%                                                                 18%
                                          30.9%                                                                              14.5%
                                                        26.4%           16%
    30%                                                                                    12.5%
             23.5%                                                      14%
    25%                                                                            12.1%                                               10.7%
                     21.4%                                    21.8%     12%
    20%                                                                 10%
    15%                                                                  8%
                                                                         6%
    10%
                                                                         4%
     5%                                                                  2%
     0%                                                                  0%
                  2009                 2010                2011                       2009                    2010               2011

                              Sabeco      Habeco                                                     Sabeco     Habeco



                          Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research                                    Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research


     Habeco also has more debts relatively than Sabeco and in turn a lower interest coverage ratio.
      However, both companies’ debts are still in a safe level.

          Year                                              2011                            2010                          2009
          Company                                  Sabeco           Habeco        Sabeco           Habeco        Sabeco          Habeco
          Debt/(Debt+Equity)                        14%              24%           17%              25%           15%             19%
          Interest coverage ratio                   13.25            13.44         38.79            13.64         42.34           7.73

                                                                                                   Source: Sabeco, Habeco, SSI Research




www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                                              7
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                      2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST

2. 2012 EARNINGS FORECAST

    According to Euromonitor, beer sales volume is expected to grow at 7.3% CAGR in 2012-2016.

    Sabeco: We estimate that net sales will increase by 12.4% YoY to VND 21,693 billion thanks to 8.1% increase in
    sales volume and ~4% in selling price. In our opinion, Sabeco has an advantage over Habeco which is that it is
    not impacted by seasonal effect thanks to hot weather in the whole year. Therefore, we expect a higher growth in
    sales volume. We forecast sales volume in 2012 to be 1,297 million liters which is a little higher than Sabeco’s
    target of 1,250 million liters. We estimate net profit will increase by 7.2% YoY to 2,512 billion which is higher than
    VND 2,387 billion as planned. So far Sabeco has no plan to increase its charter capital in 2012, then 2012 EPS is
    estimated to be VND 3,808, up 7.1% YoY. Cash dividends are set at VND 2,200/share.

    Habeco: We estimate that net sales will increase by 11.7% YoY to VND 6,780 billion thanks to 7.4% increase in
    sales volume and ~4% in selling price. We forecast sales volume in 2012 to be 446 million liters which is higher
    than Habeco’s target of 428 million liters. In our opinion, in 2012, weather condition in the North is much more
    favorable to beer business than in 2011 thanks to hotter summer. We estimate net profit will decline by 7.1% YoY
    to 737 billion which is higher than VND 668 billion as planned. So far Habeco has no plan to increase its charter
    capital in 2012, then 2012 EPS is estimated to be VND 2,865, down 7.1% YoY. Cash dividends are set at VND
    1,500/share.

                                       Sabeco & Habeco business plan for 2012

                                                   Sabeco                                      Habeco
     Company                                             YoY                                          YoY
                                   2011A      2012P                  2012E      2011A      2012P                 2012E
                                                       growth                                       growth
     Sales volume (mn liters)      1,200      1,250     4.17%        1,297       416        428      2.88%         446
     Sales (VND bn)                22,313     24,919   11.68%        24,893     6,070      5,538    -8.76%        8,880
     PBT (VND bn)                  2,996      3,106     3.67%        3,221      1,023       905    -11.53%         957
     Net profit (VND bn)           2,344      2,387     1.83%        2,512       793        668    -15.76%         737
     Dividends (VND)               2,000      2,200      10%         2,200      1,500      1,500       0%         1,500
                                                                                    Source: Sabeco, Habeco, SSI Research

3. VALUATION SUMMARY

    We use both DCF and RV to calculate target price in one year of Sabeco and Habeco with a conservative
    approach. In order to come up with the target prices of these two companies, we combined both “top-down”
    approach and “bottom-up” approach. We based on the expected growth of the Vietnamese beer market in the
    next 5 years and forecast market shares of these two companies to estimate the top lines. Using these
    companies’ investment plan publicized in their AGM documents, we estimated CAPEX in the next few years. We
    note that Sabeco currently has a plan to develop a complex on its head office site in Hai Ba Trung street which
    requires a huge CAPEX in the next few years. For comparable method, we used their historical multiples and
    multiples of other listed large consumer staples companies.

     Sabeco (VND)                       Target price (1 year)           Weight (%)                                  VND
     DCF                                              66,769              50%                                   33,384.5
     RV                                               41,845              50%                                   20,922.5
     Target price (1 year)                                                100%                                   54,307


     Habeco (VND)                       Target price (1 year)           Weight (%)                                  VND
     DCF                                              61,247              50%                                   30,623.5
     RV                                               33,609              50%                                   16,804.5
     Target price (1 year)                                                100%                                   47,428
                                                                                      Source: SSI Research (26 June 2012)
www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                            8
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                      2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST

4. INVESTMENT OPINION

    Our current investment views over both Sabeco and Habeco are BUY at the present. Our investment rationales
    include:

    We believe the Vietnamese beer market to be highly potential in the next few years.

     According to Euromonitor, Vietnam’s beer market grew at 13% in volume in 2011. This organization forecast
        this market will grow at a CAGR of ~7% in the next five years.

     According to Ministry of Trade and Industry, Vietnam’s beer market grew at 12% p.a. in value in 2006-2010.
        This rate is expected to be 13% in 2011-2015 and 8% in 2016-2025.

     The habit of drinking beer of the Vietnamese is increasing which creates stable demand for this industry.

    Both companies have products of good quality and with well-known trademark which has been reinforced
    for many years. Their distribution networks are well-established and both companies have strong market
    positions in the Vietnamese beer market:

     Sabeco: Rank No.1 with 47.5% market share in 2011;

     Habeco: Rank No.3 with 17.3% market share in 2011.

    As leading companies in a growing and stable consumer staples segment, we think that current valuation of
    Sabeco and Habeco is reasonable.

     As far as we know, Sabeco is being traded at VND 48,000/share or 12.0x forward PE. Our 1-year target price
        of VND 54,307/share means 13% upside.

     As far as we know, Habeco is being traded at VND 29,000/share or 9.65x forward PE. Our 1-year target price
        of VND 47,428/share means 64% upside.

    Both Sabeco & Habeco still have room for foreign investors. We believe that when these two companies are
    listed, they will draw large attention from investors as two leading consumer staples stocks.

     At the market price of VND 48,000/share, Sabeco’s market cap is VND 30,782 billion. It will rank No. 7, after
        VNM and before BVH.

     At the market price of VND 29,000/share, Habeco’s market cap is VND 6,722 billion. It will rank No. 21, after
        SSI and before KDC.

    However, there are some investment risks as follows:

     The majority (60%-70%) of input materials is currently imported, including malt and houblon. This
        industry is highly dependent upon the fluctuation of raw materials’ international prices.




www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                    9
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                        2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST

     Liquidity risk: Currently, these two stocks have not been listed yet and their liquidity on OTC market is low.
        This liquidity risk can be solved when they go listing. However, their listing plans have been postponed many
        times.


            As far as we know, Sabeco plans to list its shares after it sells stake to strategic partners. Currently, it is in
            process of negotiating and deciding to sell how much and to whom. Rumors said that the selling price is
            much higher than Sabeco’s share price on OTC market at the present. We expect that Sabeco may list its
            shares in 2H2013.

            The listing plan for Habeco is still unclear. We expect that its listing may be after that of Sabeco.

     As unlisted and State-owned companies, information transparency is not good.

     There are a lot rumors about frauds of these two companies’ management in terms of raw material purchase,
        cost control and internal conflict.




www.ssi.com.vn                                                                                                             10
Date: 29 Jun 2012                                                       2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST



DISCLAIMER

The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein,
including any expression of opinion, are based upon sources believed to
be reliable but their accuracy completeness or correctness are not
guaranteed. Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and
careful consideration and they were based upon the best information
then known to us and in our opinion are fair and reasonable in the
circumstances prevailing at the time. Expressions of opinion contained
herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not and
should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy
or sell any securities. SSI and other companies in the SSI and/or their
officers, directors and employees may have positions and may affect
transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also
perform or seek to perform investment banking services for these
companies.

This document is for private circulation only and is not for publication in
the press or elsewhere. SSI accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct
or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its
content. The use of any information, statements forecasts and
projections contained herein shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the
user.

CONTACT INFORMATION

                          Director, Institutional
 Phuong Hoang             Research &                phuonghv@ssi.com.vn
                          Investment Advisory
 Giang Nguyen             Project Manager           giangntt@ssi.com.vn




WWW.SSI.COM.VN                              SAIGON SECURITIES         HO CHI MINH CITY         HA NOI
                                            INC.
                                                                      72 Nguyen Hue Street,    1c Ngo Quyen Street
                                            Member of the Ho Chi      District 1               Ha Noi City
                                            Minh Stock Exchange,      Ho Chi Minh City         Tel: (848) 3936 6321
www.ssi.com.vn                              Regulated                 Tel: (848) 3824 2897     Fax: (848) 3936 6311 11
                                            by the State Securities   Fax: (848) 3824 2997
                                            Commission                Email: info@ssi.com.vn         (848) 3824 2997 Email: info

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Sabeco habeco company update still attractive despite 2011 low performance_29.06.2012_ssi_research

  • 1. Date: 29 Jun 2012 COMPANY REPORT SABECO & HABECO (Not listed – OTC) We would like to provide a yearly update on Sabeco & Habeco, the two largest beer producers of Vietnam with BUY recommendation for both Recommendation stocks. Sabeco Habeco Saigon Alcohol Beer and Beverage Company (Sabeco) is the leading beer BUY BUY company in Vietnam with the market share of 47.5% in 2011. It was equitized in 1 year TP 1 year TP early 2008 and has not been listed yet. Currently, the State is holding an 89.59% 54,307 VND 47,428 VND stake in Sabeco. Hanoi Alcohol Beer and Beverage Company (Habeco) is the third largest beer company in Vietnam with the market share of 17.3% in 2011. It was equitized in late 2010 and has not been listed yet. As of 31 Dec 2011, the State is holding an 81.79% stake in Habeco and Carlsberg holding 15.77%. Estimate - Sabeco We believe that the Vietnamese beer market is highly potential in the next Bn VND 2011A 2012E Revenue 19,293 21,693 few years. Earnings 2,344 2,512  According to Euromonitor, Vietnam’s beer market grew at 13% in volume in EPS (VND) 3,556 3,808 2011. This organization forecast this market will grow at a CAGR of ~7% in Total Equity 9,646 10,664 the next five years. Total Assets 10,377 n.a Dividend  According to Ministry of Trade and Industry, Vietnam’s beer market grew at 2,000 2,200 (VND) 12% p.a. in value in 2006-2010. This rate is expected to be 13% in 2011- PE n.a n.a 2015 and 8% in 2016-2025. PB n.a n.a  The habit of drinking beer of the Vietnamese is increasing which creates ROE 26.4% 24.7% stable demand for this industry. ROA 14.5% n.a Both Habeco & Sabeco have products of good quality and with well-known Source: SSI Research trademark which has been reinforced for many years. Their distribution networks are well-established and both companies have strong market positions in the Vietnamese beer market. Estimate - Habeco Both Sabeco & Habeco still have room for foreign investors. We believe that Bn VND 2011A 2012E when these two companies are listed, they will draw large attention from investors Revenue 6,070 6,780 as two leading consumer staple stocks. Earnings 793 737 EPS (VND) 3,085 2,865  At the market price of VND 48,000/share, Sabeco’s market cap is VND Total Equity 3,813 4,126 30,782 billion. It will rank No. 7, after VNM and before BVH. Total Assets 5,470 n.a  At the market price of VND 29,000/share, Habeco’s market cap is VND 6,722 Dividend 1,500 1,500 billion. It will rank No. 21, after SSI and before KDC. (VND) PE n.a n.a However, we see investment risks to include (1) Dependence on imported PB n.a n.a materials, (2) Liquidity risk, (3) Lack of information transparency and (4) Poor ROE 21.8% 18.6% corporate governance. ROA 10.7% n.a Source: SSI Research www.ssi.com.vn 1
  • 2. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2011, both Sabeco and Habeco recognized declining net earnings YoY due to increase in input cost and operating expenses. Moreover, demand became low in the context of economic difficulty. Sabeco’s 2011 net income declined by 15.4% YoY to VND 2,344 billion. That of Habeco also decreased by 17.0% YoY to VND 793 billion. However, according to Euromonitor, these two companies continued to keep and reinforce their market shares in 2011. In general, their performance in 2011 is not as good as in 2010; however, the financial results are still positive in the circumstances of low demand in 2011. In specific, the size of Sabeco is approximately three times that of Habeco in terms of sales volume, market shares, sales and net profit. In terms of asset efficiency, Sabeco is more effective than Habeco with higher ROE, ROA and other asset turnover ratios. Habeco also has more debts relatively than Sabeco and in turn a lower interest coverage ratio. However, both companies’ debts are still in a safe level. 2012 ESTIMATES Sabeco: We estimate that net sales will increase by 12.4% YoY in 2012 to VND 21,693 billion thanks to 8.1% increase in sales volume and ~4% in selling price. We forecast sales volume in 2012 to be 1,297 million liters which is a little higher than Sabeco’s target of 1,250 million liters. We estimate net profit will increase by 7.2% YoY to 2,512 billion which is higher than VND 2,387 billion as planned. So far Sabeco has no plan to increase its charter capital in 2012, then 2012 EPS is estimated to be VND 3,808, up 7.1% YoY. Cash dividends are set at VND 2,200/share. Habeco: We estimate that net sales will increase by 11.7% YoY to VND 6,780 billion thanks to 7.4% increase in sales volume and ~4% in selling price. We forecast sales volume in 2012 to be 446 million liters which is higher than Habeco’s target of 428 million liters. In our opinion, in 2012, weather condition in the North is much more favorable to beer business than in 2011 thanks to hotter summer. We estimate net profit will decline by 7.1% YoY to 737 billion which is higher than VND 668 billion as planned. So far Habeco has no plan to increase its charter capital in 2012, then 2012 EPS is estimated to be VND 2,865, down 7.1% YoY. Cash dividends are set at VND 1,500/share. INVESTMENT VIEW Our current investment views over both Sabeco and Habeco are BUYat current OTC price with investment rationales as follows:  Highly potential Vietnam’s beer market (grow at 7% p.a.in volume in 2012-2016)  Good quality, well-known trademark, well-established distribution network  Strong market position (Sabeco: market share of 47.5% - No.1; Habeco: 17.3% - No.3 in 2011)  Reasonable valuation as leading consumer staples companies. As far as we know, Sabeco is being traded at VND 48,000/share or 12.0x forward PE. As far as we know, Habeco is being traded at VND 29,000/share or 9.65x forward PE. However, there are some risks including dependence on imported materials, liquidity risk, lack of information transparency and poor corporate governance. www.ssi.com.vn 2
  • 3. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST 1. 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE In 2011, both Sabeco and Habeco recognized declining net earnings YoY due to increase in input cost and operating expenses. Moreover, demand became low in the context of economic difficulty. Sabeco’s 2011 net income declined by 15.4% YoY to VND 2,344 billion andthat of Habeco also decreased by 17.0% YoY to VND 793 billion. However, according to Euromonitor, these two companies continued to keep and reinforce their market shares in 2011. In 2011, the Vietnamese beer market saw the total volume growth of 13% to reach 2.6 billion liters. Sabeco continued to hold its leading position with the market share of 47.5%. In general, the size of Sabeco is approximately three times that of Habeco in terms of sales volume, market shares, sales and net profit (see below chart). Market share in Vietnam’s beer market (2010-2011) Source: Euromonitor SABECO In general, its performance in 2011 is not as good as in 2010; however, the financial result is still positive in the circumstances of low demand in 2011. Sabeco’s 2011 net income declined by 15.4% YoY to VND 2,344 billion.  In 2011, sales increased by 11.2% to VND 19,293 billion thanks to 9.5% increase in sales volume (2011: 1,200 million liters vs. 2010: 1,096 million liters) and around 1.55% increase on selling price on average.  Gross margin declined to 21.1% in 2011 from 24.75% in 2010 due to increase in cost of main inputs including malt and sugar.  Both selling and admin expenses increased much higher than growth of sales which in turn results in higher SG&A expenses over sales (2011: 7.4% vs. 2010: 6.2%). However, we think that these operating expense over sales ratios of Sabecoin 2011 are quite low in comparison with other leading consumer staple companies (VNM: 10.29%, MSN: 20.1%, KDC: 30.0%). www.ssi.com.vn 3
  • 4. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST  In 2011, even its debts balance slightly declined, its interest expense increased sharply (2.6 times) when lending interest rate was in an uptrend last year. As at 31 Dec 2012, its debts amounted to VND 1,524 billion, accounting for 9.2% of the total assets, of which 91% is long-term debts. Its debts are quite low and not an issue to Sabeco’s operation. Profit and Loss of Sabeco (2009-2011) Unit: VND m illion 2009 2010 2011 Sales 15,954,096 19,912,941 22,313,189 YoY growth (%) 76.0% 24.8% 12.1% Deductions (3,141,241) (2,560,216) (3,020,422) Net sales 12,812,855 17,352,725 19,292,766 YoY growth (%) 78.8% 35.4% 11.2% Cost of goods sold (9,953,954) (13,058,650) (15,224,618) Gross profit 2,858,901 4,294,075 4,068,148 Gross margin (%) 22.3% 24.75% 21.1% Financial income 301,134 333,733 436,091 Financial expense (461,215) (324,102) (316,672) in which: Interest expense (49,109) (93,105) (244,556) Net financial income (160,082) 9,631 119,419 Selling expense (627,215) (836,329) (1,067,551) YoY growth (%) 34.4% 33.3% 27.6% % of net sales 4.9% 4.8% 5.5% Administrative expense (231,357) (232,950) (364,036) YoY growth (%) -0.7% 0.7% 56.3% % of net sales 1.8% 1.3% 1.9% Operating profit 1,840,247 3,234,427 2,755,980 Operating margin (%) 14.4% 18.6% 14.3% Other income 47,992 26,199 47,702 Other expense (21,316) (35,770) (43,220) Net other income 26,676 (9,571) 4,483 Income from associates/JVs 163,154 293,437 235,650 Profit before tax 2,030,077 3,518,293 2,996,113 YoY growth (%) 161.0% 73.3% -14.8% PBT margin (%) 15.8% 20.3% 15.5% Current CIT (320,143) (752,157) (688,824) Deferred CIT (9,208) 5,238 36,921 Corporate Income Tax (329,352) (746,919) (651,902) % Effective CIT rate 16.2% 21.2% 21.8% Net incom e 1,700,725 2,771,374 2,344,211 YoY growth (%) 175.0% 63.0% -15.4% Net margin (%) 13.3% 15.97% 12.2% Net income/(loss) attributable to NCI 92,324 202,143 65,777 Net incom e attributable to Parent's Shareholders 1,608,402 2,569,231 2,278,435 Basic EPS (VND) 2,510 4,009 3,556 YoY growth (%) 212.6% 59.7% -11.3% Source: 2011-2010 Audited Financial Statements of Sabeco In 2011, Sabeco completed some key projects to increase its production capacity up to ~1.3 billion liters in 2011. Therefore, in 2011, Sabeco used ~92% of its designed capacity.  Increase the production capacity of Saigon – Cu Chi Brewery Factory from 200 to 264 million liters;  Construct Saigon – Ha Tinh Brewery Factory with the initial capacity of 50 million liters. HABECO Like Sabeco, the performance of Habeco in 2011 is not as good as in 2010; however, the financial result is still positive in the circumstances of low demand and unfavorable weather condition in the North (longer winter and cooler summer). Habeco’s 2011 net income declined by 17% YoY to VND 793 billion. www.ssi.com.vn 4
  • 5. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST  In 2011, sales increased by 19.4% to VND 6,070 billion thanks to 2.9% increase in sales volume (2011: 415.7 million liters vs. 2010: 403.9 million liters) and around 16.03% increase on selling price on average.  Gross margin also declined to 37.1% in 2011 from 42.3% in 2010 due to increase in cost of main inputs including malt and sugar.  Both selling and admin expenses increased higher than growth of sales which in turn results in higher SG&A expenses over sales (2011: 18.8% vs. 2010: 18.4%). We think that these operating expense over sales ratios of Habeco in 2011 are quite high in comparison with other leading consumer staple companies (Sabeco: 7.4%; VNM: 10.29%, MSN: 20.1%, KDC: 30.0%).  In 2011, even its debts balance slightly declined, its interest expense increased sharply (1.65 times) when lending interest rate was in an uptrend last year. As at 31 Dec 2012, its debts amounted to VND 1,174 billion, accounting for 15.3% of the total assets, of which 90.5% is long-term debts. Profit and Loss of Sabeco (2009-2011) Unit: VND m illion 2009 2010 2011 Sales 5,649,448 7,033,732 8,227,513 YoY growth (%) 114.1% 24.5% 17.0% Deductions (1,876,705) (1,950,668) (2,157,540) Net sales 3,772,743 5,083,064 6,069,973 YoY growth (%) 111.1% 34.7% 19.4% Cost of goods sold (2,364,750) (2,934,373) (3,817,554) Gross profit 1,407,993 2,148,691 2,252,419 Gross margin (%) 37.3% 42.3% 37.1% Financial income 65,171 71,866 70,167 Financial expense (110,945) (95,715) (157,985) in which: Interest expense (56,901) (92,068) (152,007) Net financial income (45,774) (23,849) (87,818) Selling expense (497,953) (711,435) (860,048) YoY growth (%) 93.7% 42.9% 20.9% % of net sales 13.2% 14.0% 14.2% Administrative expense (192,591) (224,072) (283,367) YoY growth (%) 140.2% 16.3% 26.5% % of net sales 5.1% 4.4% 4.7% Operating profit 671,675 1,189,335 1,021,186 Operating margin (%) 17.8% 23.4% 16.8% Other income 123,433 269,349 31,441 Other expense (90,169) (276,301) (11,467) Net other income 33,264 (6,952) 19,974 Income from associates/JVs 2,968 (18,945) (18,056) Profit before tax 707,907 1,163,438 1,023,104 YoY growth (%) 92.2% 64.3% -12.1% PBT margin (%) 18.8% 22.9% 16.9% Current CIT (131,646) (212,474) (240,877) Deferred CIT 7,335 4,609 10,890 Corporate Income Tax (124,311) (207,865) (229,987) % Effective CIT rate 17.6% 17.9% 22.5% Net incom e 583,596 955,573 793,117 YoY growth (%) 96.8% 63.7% -17.0% Net margin (%) 15.5% 18.8% 13.1% Net income/(loss) attributable to NCI 142,196 124,659 77,994 Net incom e attributable to Parent's Shareholders 441,400 830,914 715,123 Basic EPS (VND) 1,904 3,585 3,085 YoY growth (%) 86.3% 88.3% -13.9% Source: 2011-2010 Audited Financial Statements of Habeco In 2011, Habeco also increased its production capacity by 45 million liters to ~ 600 million liters a year. Currently, Habeco uses around 69% of its designed capacity. www.ssi.com.vn 5
  • 6. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST SABECO V.S. HABECO In general, the size of Sabeco is approximately three times that of Habeco in terms of sales volume, market shares, sales and net profit. In terms of asset efficiency, Sabeco is more effective than Habeco with higher ROE, ROA and other asset turnover ratios. Habeco also has more debts relatively than Sabeco and in turn a lower interest coverage ratio. However, both companies’ debts are still in a safe level.  Sabeco is nearly three times larger than Habeco. Sales volume (million liters) Market share 47.50% 1,400 50% 1,200 45.40% 1,200 45% 1,096 40% 1,000 906 31.80% 33.00% 35% 800 30% 600 25% 404 416 17.30% 305 20% 400 16.10% 15% 9.90% 10.50% 200 10% - 5% 2009 2010 2011 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sabeco Habeco Sabeco Habeco Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research Source: Euromoitor, SSI Research Net Sales (VND billion) Net profit (VND billion) 25,000 3,000 2,771 2,344 19,293 2,500 20,000 17,353 2,000 15,000 1,701 12,813 1,500 10,000 956 793 1,000 6,070 584 5,083 5,000 3,773 500 - - 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Sabeco Habeco Sabeco Habeco Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research  Cost structure of Sabeco and Habeco is so different. It is not only in 2011 but it is also the case for the last three years. And we are so surprised about this fact. Habeco’s gross margin is significantly higher than that of Sabeco (37.1% vs. 21.1%). However, selling and admin expense over sales ratios of Sabeco are significantly lower than those of Habeco (7.4% vs. 18.8%). Finally, Habeco’s net margin is still a little higher than that of Sabeco (13.1% vs. 12.2%). We do not get the explanation for the different in gross margin from management of Sabeco and Habeco. www.ssi.com.vn 6
  • 7. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST Gross and Net Margin Operating expenses/Net sales 45% 16% 40% 14% 35% 12% 30% 10% 25% 8% 20% 6% 15% 4% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Sabeco - Selling expenses/Net sales Sabeco - Gross margin Habeco - Gross margin Habeco - Selling expenses/Net sales Sabeco - Net margin Habeco - Net margin Sabeco - Admin expenses/Net sales Habeco - Admin expenses/Net sales Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research  Sabeco is more effective than Habeco with higher ROE, ROA and other asset turnover ratios. ROE ROA 40% 20% 17.9% 16.5% 34.4% 35% 18% 30.9% 14.5% 26.4% 16% 30% 12.5% 23.5% 14% 25% 12.1% 10.7% 21.4% 21.8% 12% 20% 10% 15% 8% 6% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Sabeco Habeco Sabeco Habeco Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research Source: Sabeco,Habeco and SSI Research  Habeco also has more debts relatively than Sabeco and in turn a lower interest coverage ratio. However, both companies’ debts are still in a safe level. Year 2011 2010 2009 Company Sabeco Habeco Sabeco Habeco Sabeco Habeco Debt/(Debt+Equity) 14% 24% 17% 25% 15% 19% Interest coverage ratio 13.25 13.44 38.79 13.64 42.34 7.73 Source: Sabeco, Habeco, SSI Research www.ssi.com.vn 7
  • 8. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST 2. 2012 EARNINGS FORECAST According to Euromonitor, beer sales volume is expected to grow at 7.3% CAGR in 2012-2016. Sabeco: We estimate that net sales will increase by 12.4% YoY to VND 21,693 billion thanks to 8.1% increase in sales volume and ~4% in selling price. In our opinion, Sabeco has an advantage over Habeco which is that it is not impacted by seasonal effect thanks to hot weather in the whole year. Therefore, we expect a higher growth in sales volume. We forecast sales volume in 2012 to be 1,297 million liters which is a little higher than Sabeco’s target of 1,250 million liters. We estimate net profit will increase by 7.2% YoY to 2,512 billion which is higher than VND 2,387 billion as planned. So far Sabeco has no plan to increase its charter capital in 2012, then 2012 EPS is estimated to be VND 3,808, up 7.1% YoY. Cash dividends are set at VND 2,200/share. Habeco: We estimate that net sales will increase by 11.7% YoY to VND 6,780 billion thanks to 7.4% increase in sales volume and ~4% in selling price. We forecast sales volume in 2012 to be 446 million liters which is higher than Habeco’s target of 428 million liters. In our opinion, in 2012, weather condition in the North is much more favorable to beer business than in 2011 thanks to hotter summer. We estimate net profit will decline by 7.1% YoY to 737 billion which is higher than VND 668 billion as planned. So far Habeco has no plan to increase its charter capital in 2012, then 2012 EPS is estimated to be VND 2,865, down 7.1% YoY. Cash dividends are set at VND 1,500/share. Sabeco & Habeco business plan for 2012 Sabeco Habeco Company YoY YoY 2011A 2012P 2012E 2011A 2012P 2012E growth growth Sales volume (mn liters) 1,200 1,250 4.17% 1,297 416 428 2.88% 446 Sales (VND bn) 22,313 24,919 11.68% 24,893 6,070 5,538 -8.76% 8,880 PBT (VND bn) 2,996 3,106 3.67% 3,221 1,023 905 -11.53% 957 Net profit (VND bn) 2,344 2,387 1.83% 2,512 793 668 -15.76% 737 Dividends (VND) 2,000 2,200 10% 2,200 1,500 1,500 0% 1,500 Source: Sabeco, Habeco, SSI Research 3. VALUATION SUMMARY We use both DCF and RV to calculate target price in one year of Sabeco and Habeco with a conservative approach. In order to come up with the target prices of these two companies, we combined both “top-down” approach and “bottom-up” approach. We based on the expected growth of the Vietnamese beer market in the next 5 years and forecast market shares of these two companies to estimate the top lines. Using these companies’ investment plan publicized in their AGM documents, we estimated CAPEX in the next few years. We note that Sabeco currently has a plan to develop a complex on its head office site in Hai Ba Trung street which requires a huge CAPEX in the next few years. For comparable method, we used their historical multiples and multiples of other listed large consumer staples companies. Sabeco (VND) Target price (1 year) Weight (%) VND DCF 66,769 50% 33,384.5 RV 41,845 50% 20,922.5 Target price (1 year) 100% 54,307 Habeco (VND) Target price (1 year) Weight (%) VND DCF 61,247 50% 30,623.5 RV 33,609 50% 16,804.5 Target price (1 year) 100% 47,428 Source: SSI Research (26 June 2012) www.ssi.com.vn 8
  • 9. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST 4. INVESTMENT OPINION Our current investment views over both Sabeco and Habeco are BUY at the present. Our investment rationales include: We believe the Vietnamese beer market to be highly potential in the next few years.  According to Euromonitor, Vietnam’s beer market grew at 13% in volume in 2011. This organization forecast this market will grow at a CAGR of ~7% in the next five years.  According to Ministry of Trade and Industry, Vietnam’s beer market grew at 12% p.a. in value in 2006-2010. This rate is expected to be 13% in 2011-2015 and 8% in 2016-2025.  The habit of drinking beer of the Vietnamese is increasing which creates stable demand for this industry. Both companies have products of good quality and with well-known trademark which has been reinforced for many years. Their distribution networks are well-established and both companies have strong market positions in the Vietnamese beer market:  Sabeco: Rank No.1 with 47.5% market share in 2011;  Habeco: Rank No.3 with 17.3% market share in 2011. As leading companies in a growing and stable consumer staples segment, we think that current valuation of Sabeco and Habeco is reasonable.  As far as we know, Sabeco is being traded at VND 48,000/share or 12.0x forward PE. Our 1-year target price of VND 54,307/share means 13% upside.  As far as we know, Habeco is being traded at VND 29,000/share or 9.65x forward PE. Our 1-year target price of VND 47,428/share means 64% upside. Both Sabeco & Habeco still have room for foreign investors. We believe that when these two companies are listed, they will draw large attention from investors as two leading consumer staples stocks.  At the market price of VND 48,000/share, Sabeco’s market cap is VND 30,782 billion. It will rank No. 7, after VNM and before BVH.  At the market price of VND 29,000/share, Habeco’s market cap is VND 6,722 billion. It will rank No. 21, after SSI and before KDC. However, there are some investment risks as follows:  The majority (60%-70%) of input materials is currently imported, including malt and houblon. This industry is highly dependent upon the fluctuation of raw materials’ international prices. www.ssi.com.vn 9
  • 10. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST  Liquidity risk: Currently, these two stocks have not been listed yet and their liquidity on OTC market is low. This liquidity risk can be solved when they go listing. However, their listing plans have been postponed many times. As far as we know, Sabeco plans to list its shares after it sells stake to strategic partners. Currently, it is in process of negotiating and deciding to sell how much and to whom. Rumors said that the selling price is much higher than Sabeco’s share price on OTC market at the present. We expect that Sabeco may list its shares in 2H2013. The listing plan for Habeco is still unclear. We expect that its listing may be after that of Sabeco.  As unlisted and State-owned companies, information transparency is not good.  There are a lot rumors about frauds of these two companies’ management in terms of raw material purchase, cost control and internal conflict. www.ssi.com.vn 10
  • 11. Date: 29 Jun 2012 2011 EARNINGS UPDATE & 2012-2013 FORECAST DISCLAIMER The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein, including any expression of opinion, are based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy completeness or correctness are not guaranteed. Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration and they were based upon the best information then known to us and in our opinion are fair and reasonable in the circumstances prevailing at the time. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. SSI and other companies in the SSI and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions and may affect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for these companies. This document is for private circulation only and is not for publication in the press or elsewhere. SSI accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The use of any information, statements forecasts and projections contained herein shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. CONTACT INFORMATION Director, Institutional Phuong Hoang Research & phuonghv@ssi.com.vn Investment Advisory Giang Nguyen Project Manager giangntt@ssi.com.vn WWW.SSI.COM.VN SAIGON SECURITIES HO CHI MINH CITY HA NOI INC. 72 Nguyen Hue Street, 1c Ngo Quyen Street Member of the Ho Chi District 1 Ha Noi City Minh Stock Exchange, Ho Chi Minh City Tel: (848) 3936 6321 www.ssi.com.vn Regulated Tel: (848) 3824 2897 Fax: (848) 3936 6311 11 by the State Securities Fax: (848) 3824 2997 Commission Email: info@ssi.com.vn (848) 3824 2997 Email: info