Virginia's Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

1. Virginia’s Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment:
A lesson in Quiet Progress
Chris Burkett
VA Dept. of Game and Inland Fisheries
June 5, 2013

2. Why are we here?
 Talk about the BIG
PICTURE
 Overview of our CC Plan
 Brief background of our
project
 Display some results
 Discuss emerging
management concerns
 Identify next steps

3. Fundamental Truth…
Virginia is a politically
conservative coal
producing state and
we have been for
centuries

4. How I Feel Most Days:
Working on Climate
Change involves Political
Peril
And
Stakeholders that want
you to “Take a Stand”.

5. Climate Change Will Affect Management
Climate change will have an
impact on how we do our jobs.
We work for organizations
and agencies that were
created to conserve and
manage the nation’s
resources.
Like other threats, we need to
incorporate climate information
into our planning processes.

6. 2009 Climate Change Strategy
 Climate Adaptation Strategy
 DGIF, NWF, VCN
 Multi-stakeholder effort
 Completed Oct. 2009
 Designed to be place to start
One of the Most Important Needs:
Develop a better understanding of how
climate change might impact Virginia’s
wildlife and habitats.

7. Side Boards
Our plan does not:
 Lay Blame
 Take Sides
 Make impossible recommendations
 Go on, and on, and on…
 Applicable to more than just
climate change

8. Virginia’s Effort
Partner With NWF and CMI for a 2-Step Project
Determine:
• the changes projected for
Virginia’s climate
and
• what those changes might
mean for Virginia’s wildlife
and habitats

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Phase 1 – Climate Modeling
 Virginia- Specific Climate Model
 10km X 10km
 Reports at 2060 and 2095
 2 GHG scenarios (B1 and
A1FI)
 Consider suite of climate
variables beyond avg. temp
and avg. precipitation.
We wanted to understand the extreme
events that drive the changing averages.

10. Variable Name
Topsoil Moisture Cold snap days
Soil Moisture Days in March with > 1" snow
Root soil moisture Mean spring growing degree days
Days with >= 6 " of
snow
Mean minimum number of growing
degree days in the spring
Days with > 0.5" of
rain
Mean maximum number of growing
degree days in the spring
Days with > 1" of snow Mean number of heatwave days
Days with > 1" runoff Minimum number of heatwave days
Days with > 8" runoff Maximum number of heatwave days
Heating degree days Mean soil moisture in July
Cooling degree days Mean minimum soil moisture in July
Foliage Damage Days Mean maximum soil moisture in July

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12. Top Soil Moisture (Dynamic Downscale)

13. Threats Assessment
– Part 2
 20 Species
 Plants or Animals
 Must be associated with the
Action Plan (SGCN, habitat
component, or threat)
 Predictions based on current
distributions and climatic
tolerances

14. Species Name Scientific Name
Bald Cypress Taxodium distichum
Black Oak Quercus velutina
Bobwhite Colinus virginianus
Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis
Cope's Gray Tree Frog Hyla chrysoscelis
Eastern Hemlock Tsuga canadensis
Flowering Dogwood Cornus florida
Gypsy Moth Lymantria dispar
James River Spiny Mussel Pleurobema collina
Northern Red Oak Quercus rubra
Oak Toad Anaxyrus quercicus
Red Spruce Picea rubens
Roanoke Logperch Percina rex
Shortleaf Pine Pinus echinata
Southern Red Oak Quercus falcata
Timber Rattlesnake Crotalus horridus
White Oak Quercus alba
White Pine Pinus strobus
Wood Frog Lithobates sylvaticus
Yellow Birch Betula alleghaniensis
14

15. Model Process
 Presence data
 Build CART model using current climate data
 Plug in future climate data into model for probability of
occurrence
 Low (.01 - .40)
 Medium (.41 - .70)
 High (> .70)
 Quantify results/patterns
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16. Climate Impacts and Implications for
Wildlife and Habitat

17. Climate Variable
SRES A1Fi
Mid 21st Late 21st
Increase Decrease Increase Decrease
Day .5” rain 74.1% 25.9% 66.9% 32.3%
Day 1” snow 0.0% 86.5% 3.0% 83.5%
Day 1” runoff 14.3% 58.3% 24.0% 50.0%
Cold Snap Days 0.0% 99.6% 0.0% 99.6%
MeanGrowing DegreeDays
(GDD) 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
MeanHeatWaveDay (HWD) 98.7% 1.3% 100.0% 0.0%
Climate Projections from Modeling

18. Changing Forest Composition
 Potential for changing
forest composition.
 Climate could be more
favorable for some
species (So. Red Oak and
Bald Cypress)
 Less favorable for others
(Black Oak, White Oak,
No. Red Oak)
 Concerns about rate of
transition.
 Potential secondary
impacts - habitat

19. Northern Red Oak
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20. Flowering Dogwood
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21. Bald Cypress
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22.  Possible extirpations
 Brook Trout
 Loss of cold water habitats
Possible Extirpations

23. Brook Trout
23

24.  Invasive Species –
gypsy moth
 Likely to do well
under predicted
conditions
 Could impact others
species
 Oaks, adapting
 Black bears
responding to
oaks
Invasive Species

25. Gypsy Moth
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26. Selection of Additional Species
 Timber Rattlesnake
 Oak Toad
 Bobwhite Quail

27. Timber Rattlesnake
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30. What have we learned?
 Things are going to change
 Not as simple as move upslope/upstream
 Distributions will change, so will probability of occurrence
 New combinations of species
 Complex interactions
 Gypsy moth and oak species
 Changing plant community composition
 Competition from new species interactions
 Native species
 Invasives
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31. Management Implications
 DGIF
 Virginia Wildlife
Action Plan
 Wildlife
Management Areas
 Species specific
management plans
Other sectors:
•CZM program
•Department of Forestry
•NEPA process
•Local planning offices
Climate is not the sole determining factor.

32. Next Steps…
 What to do with the
data
 Summarize
 Availability
 Research
 Conserved lands
 Focus on Habitats
 Collaborations

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Questions? Ideas?
Chris Burkett
Wildlife Action Plan Coordinator
Virginia Department of Game and
Inland Fisheries
Chris.Burkett@dgif.virginia.gov
Virginia’s Climate Strategy for Wildlife is Available at:
http://www.bewildvirginia.org/climate-change/
Austin Kane
Science and Policy Manager
National Wildlife Federation
kanea@nwf.org
Scott Klopfer
Director
Conservation Management Institute
sklopfer@vt.edu