Provident Solitaire Park Square Kanakapura Road, Bangalore E- Brochure.pdf
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
1. Economic and Commercial Real Estate
Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual Conference
Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum
San Francisco, CA
November 8, 2013
2. GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no
Fresh Recession
(Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery)
% growth from one year ago
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
3. 140000
138000
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
U.S. Total Payroll Jobs
(8 million lost … 7 million gained)
In thousands
136000
134000
132000
130000
128000
126000
124000
4. States with Fast Job Growth
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
State
North Dakota
Utah
Idaho
Texas
Colorado
Minnesota
Georgia
Washington
Arizona
New Jersey
Job Growth Rate
3.2%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
5. 2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
Unemployment Rate
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
6. 2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
Employment Rate
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
7. 1990 - Jan
1992 - Jan
1994 - Jan
1996 - Jan
1998 - Jan
2000 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2010 - Jan
2012 - Jan
1988 - Jan
1986 - Jan
1984 - Jan
1982 - Jan
1980 - Jan
1978 - Jan
1976 - Jan
1974 - Jan
1972 - Jan
1970 - Jan
Labor Force Participation Rate:
Record Low for Men and Cyclical Low for Women
(Adults 20 years old and up)
Women
Men
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
8. 2012 - Jan
2010 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2000 - Jan
1998 - Jan
1996 - Jan
1994 - Jan
1992 - Jan
1990 - Jan
1988 - Jan
1986 - Jan
1984 - Jan
1982 - Jan
1980 - Jan
1978 - Jan
1976 - Jan
1974 - Jan
140
1972 - Jan
1970 - Jan
150
Well Shy of Long Run Trend
(6 to 8 million more jobs needed)
In millions
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
13. 4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jun
2005 - Nov
2006 - Apr
2006 - Sep
2007 - Feb
2007 - Jul
2007 - Dec
2008 - May
2008 - Oct
2009 - Mar
2009 - Aug
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jun
2010 - Nov
2011 - Apr
2011 - Sep
2012 - Feb
2012 - Jul
2012 - Dec
2013 - May
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from
Quantitative Easing
Total Asset Purchase
$ million
14. 6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
2013 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2009 - Jan
Core
2008 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2003 - Jan
Consumer Price Inflation
Less than 2%
(% change from one year ago)
Overall
15. -1
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jun
2003 - Nov
2004 - Apr
2004 - Sep
2005 - Feb
2005 - Jul
2005 - Dec
2006 - May
2006 - Oct
2007 - Mar
2007 - Aug
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jun
2008 - Nov
2009 - Apr
2009 - Sep
2010 - Feb
2010 - Jul
2010 - Dec
2011 - May
2011 - Oct
2012 - Mar
2012 - Aug
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jun
Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth
(Above 2% and On the Way to 3%)
Owners' Equivalent Rent
Renters' Rent
5
4
3
2
1
0
17. 2013 - May
2012 - Dec
2012 - Jul
2012 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2011 - Apr
2010 - Nov
2010 - Jun
2010 - Jan
2009 - Aug
2009 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2008 - May
2007 - Dec
2007 - Jul
2007 - Feb
2006 - Sep
2006 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2005 - Jun
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
2005 - Jan
Federal Government Spending
(Stimulus … Flat … Decline)
$ trillion
19. 4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1992 - Jan
1993 - Jan
1994 - Jan
1995 - Jan
1996 - Jan
1997 - Jan
1998 - Jan
1999 - Jan
2000 - Jan
2001 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2003 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2005 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2007 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2009 - Jan
2010 - Jan
2011 - Jan
2012 - Jan
2013 - Jan
Federal Government Annual
Spending/Revenue
$ trillion
Tax Revenue
Govt Spending
21. Germany
• Too High Trade Surplus
• No Stimulus
• Budget Surplus in 2013 (though still has high
debt from prior deficits)
• Blame Germany for holding back the World
Economy?
• Or Emulate Germany’s Economic Reforms?
22. International Sovereign Borrowing Cost
Country
10-year Government Borrowing Cost
Japan
0.6%
Switzerland
1.1%
Germany
1.7%
France
2.3%
Canada
2.4%
U.S.
2.5%
Britain
2.6%
China
4.0%
Spain
4.1%
Italy
4.2%
Russia
7.5%
India
8.6%
Greece
8.7%
Brazil
11.6%
23. 2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
Consumer Confidence
Now and About Future
Expectations
Present
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
24. Productivity and Income Doubling
Productivity Growth
Years for Income to Double Examples
1%
72 years
U.S. today?
2%
36 years
1970 to 2007
(pre-financial
market crash)
3%
24 years
U.S. post-war to
1970
5%
14 years
Asian Tigers
32. Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets
Sales Prices (YoY % Chg)
Moody’s/RCA CPPI - Major Markets
Realtor CRE Markets
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
33. Small Banks Important to REALTORS®
3%
1%
Current sources of financing for commercial deals
National banks (“Big four”)
8%
11%
Regional banks
Local banks
17%
Credit unions
Life insurance companies
REITs
18%
Private investors
Public companies
Small Business Administration
4%
25%
6%
7%
Source: NAR
Other, please specify
34. SIOR Markets in Recovery
SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index
160.0
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
Source: SIOR, NAR
47. Jobs in Professional Business and
Financial Services … at New Peak
27.0
In millions
26.5
26.0
25.5
25.0
24.5
24.0
23.5
23.0
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
52. Jobs in Retail Trade
(Still Below Prior Peak)
15.8
15.6
15.4
15.2
15.0
14.8
14.6
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6
In millions
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
53. Spending Effect from Higher Home Prices
18% cumulative gains over 2 years
$240,000
Median Existing Home Price
$220,000
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
58. Jobs in Wholesale Trade
(Still Below Prior Peak)
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
In millions
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
59. 1992 - Jan
1992 - Dec
1993 - Nov
1994 - Oct
1995 - Sep
1996 - Aug
1997 - Jul
1998 - Jun
1999 - May
2000 - Apr
2001 - Mar
2002 - Feb
2003 - Jan
2003 - Dec
2004 - Nov
2005 - Oct
2006 - Sep
2007 - Aug
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jun
2010 - May
2011 - Apr
2012 - Mar
2013 - Feb
U.S. International Trade
Long-Term Growth
Exports
Imports
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
60. U.S. International Trade
But No Growth in Recent Years
Exports
Imports
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013
- Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul
64. REALTORS® Working With International Clients
• In Past 12 Months, 27 Percent of
REALTORS® Have Worked with an
International Client.
– Clients Residing in Another
Country: 51 Percent.
– Clients Residing in this Country:
49 Percent.
– A Niche Market on Buyer Side:
Facility with languages and
cultures very helpful.
– On Sellers Side—Understanding
of foreign cultures helpful.
65. Percent of Total U.S. International Sales by Country
Top Countries—2013 Report
Shares of the Top Countries of Origin to
Total Reported International Transactions
Canada
Mexico
United Kingdom
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Venezuela
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
*China includes PROC, Hong Kong, Taiwan
5%
5%
8%
12%
23%
66. Top State Destinations—2013 Report
Florida
23%
California
17%
Arizona
9%
Texas
9%
New York
3%
Virginia
3%
Nevada
2%
Hawaii
2%
Illinois
2%
Michigan
2%
Georgia
2%
68. Impact of the Value of the Dollar on Foreign
Purchases
69. 2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan
(Yuan per $)
8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
70. 2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
U.S. Dollar vs. Euro
($ per Euro)
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
71. 2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun
Broad U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness
(Broad Trade Weighted)
140
130
120
110
100
90
80