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Economic and Commercial Real Estate
Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual Conference
Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum
San Francisco, CA

November 8, 2013
GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no
Fresh Recession
(Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery)
% growth from one year ago
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
140000

138000

2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - May

U.S. Total Payroll Jobs

(8 million lost … 7 million gained)

In thousands

136000

134000

132000

130000

128000

126000

124000
States with Fast Job Growth
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

State
North Dakota
Utah
Idaho
Texas
Colorado
Minnesota
Georgia
Washington
Arizona
New Jersey

Job Growth Rate
3.2%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul

Unemployment Rate

12

10

8

6

4

2

0
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul

Employment Rate

66

64

62

60

58

56

54
1990 - Jan
1992 - Jan
1994 - Jan
1996 - Jan
1998 - Jan
2000 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2010 - Jan
2012 - Jan

1988 - Jan

1986 - Jan

1984 - Jan

1982 - Jan

1980 - Jan

1978 - Jan

1976 - Jan

1974 - Jan

1972 - Jan

1970 - Jan

Labor Force Participation Rate:

Record Low for Men and Cyclical Low for Women
(Adults 20 years old and up)
Women
Men

90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
2012 - Jan

2010 - Jan

2008 - Jan

2006 - Jan

2004 - Jan

2002 - Jan

2000 - Jan

1998 - Jan

1996 - Jan

1994 - Jan

1992 - Jan

1990 - Jan

1988 - Jan

1986 - Jan

1984 - Jan

1982 - Jan

1980 - Jan

1978 - Jan

1976 - Jan

1974 - Jan

140

1972 - Jan

1970 - Jan

150

Well Shy of Long Run Trend
(6 to 8 million more jobs needed)

In millions

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60
-2

-4
1980 - Q1
1981 - Q2
1982 - Q3
1983 - Q4
1985 - Q1
1986 - Q2
1987 - Q3
1988 - Q4
1990 - Q1
1991 - Q2
1992 - Q3
1993 - Q4
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q2
1997 - Q3
1998 - Q4
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q2
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q4
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q2
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q4
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q2
2012 - Q3

Consumer Spending Growth
(2% growth; not 3% or 4%)

8

6

4

2

0
-5

-10

-15

-20
1980 - Q1
1981 - Q3
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q3
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q3
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q3
1992 - Q1
1993 - Q3
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q3
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q3
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q3
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q3
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q3
2013 - Q1

Business Spending Growth
(3% growth; not sustained 5% to 10%)
25

20

15

10

5

0
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve
(zero rate policy to 2015 ?)
%

Fed Funds

6
5

4
3
2
1
0
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 2014
forecast forecast
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jun
2005 - Nov
2006 - Apr
2006 - Sep
2007 - Feb
2007 - Jul
2007 - Dec
2008 - May
2008 - Oct
2009 - Mar
2009 - Aug
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jun
2010 - Nov
2011 - Apr
2011 - Sep
2012 - Feb
2012 - Jul
2012 - Dec
2013 - May

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from
Quantitative Easing
Total Asset Purchase

$ million
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
2013 - Jul

2013 - Jan

2012 - Jul

2012 - Jan

2011 - Jul

2011 - Jan

2010 - Jul

2010 - Jan

2009 - Jul

2009 - Jan

Core

2008 - Jul

2008 - Jan

2007 - Jul

2007 - Jan

2006 - Jul

2006 - Jan

2005 - Jul

2005 - Jan

2004 - Jul

2004 - Jan

2003 - Jul

2003 - Jan

Consumer Price Inflation
Less than 2%
(% change from one year ago)

Overall
-1
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jun
2003 - Nov
2004 - Apr
2004 - Sep
2005 - Feb
2005 - Jul
2005 - Dec
2006 - May
2006 - Oct
2007 - Mar
2007 - Aug
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jun
2008 - Nov
2009 - Apr
2009 - Sep
2010 - Feb
2010 - Jul
2010 - Dec
2011 - May
2011 - Oct
2012 - Mar
2012 - Aug
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jun

Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth
(Above 2% and On the Way to 3%)

Owners' Equivalent Rent
Renters' Rent

5

4

3

2

1

0
2012 - Q4

2012 - Q1

2011 - Q2

2010 - Q3

2009 - Q4

2009 - Q1

2008 - Q2

2007 - Q3

2006 - Q4

2006 - Q1

2005 - Q2

2004 - Q3

2003 - Q4

2003 - Q1

2002 - Q2

2001 - Q3

2000 - Q4

75000

2000 - Q1

Household Net Worth

$ billion

70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
2013 - May

2012 - Dec

2012 - Jul

2012 - Feb

2011 - Sep

2011 - Apr

2010 - Nov

2010 - Jun

2010 - Jan

2009 - Aug

2009 - Mar

2008 - Oct

2008 - May

2007 - Dec

2007 - Jul

2007 - Feb

2006 - Sep

2006 - Apr

2005 - Nov

2005 - Jun

3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
2005 - Jan

Federal Government Spending
(Stimulus … Flat … Decline)

$ trillion
Shrinking Budget Deficit
(in $billion)
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
-1400
-1600

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1992 - Jan
1993 - Jan
1994 - Jan
1995 - Jan
1996 - Jan
1997 - Jan
1998 - Jan
1999 - Jan
2000 - Jan
2001 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2003 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2005 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2007 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2009 - Jan
2010 - Jan
2011 - Jan
2012 - Jan
2013 - Jan

Federal Government Annual
Spending/Revenue

$ trillion

Tax Revenue

Govt Spending
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Federal Debt Held By Public

(Cumulative Accumulation as % of GDP)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
Germany
• Too High Trade Surplus
• No Stimulus
• Budget Surplus in 2013 (though still has high
debt from prior deficits)
• Blame Germany for holding back the World
Economy?

• Or Emulate Germany’s Economic Reforms?
International Sovereign Borrowing Cost
Country

10-year Government Borrowing Cost

Japan

0.6%

Switzerland

1.1%

Germany

1.7%

France

2.3%

Canada

2.4%

U.S.

2.5%

Britain

2.6%

China

4.0%

Spain

4.1%

Italy

4.2%

Russia

7.5%

India

8.6%

Greece

8.7%

Brazil

11.6%
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun

Consumer Confidence
Now and About Future
Expectations
Present

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Productivity and Income Doubling
Productivity Growth

Years for Income to Double Examples

1%

72 years

U.S. today?

2%

36 years

1970 to 2007
(pre-financial
market crash)

3%

24 years

U.S. post-war to
1970

5%

14 years

Asian Tigers
GDP Forecast
5.0
4.5
4.0

CBO

3.5

White House

3.0

Blue Chip Consensus

2.5
2.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Commercial Market Activity
Transactions Up 27% YoY – 2013 YTD
billions

Individual

$180

Portfolio

Entity

$160
$140
$120
$100

$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

200%
100%
0%
-100%

Source: Real Capital Analytics
CRE Prices Advance – CBD Off & Apt Lead
Moody’s/RCA CPPI
225

Apartment
CBD-Office
175

Retail

125

Sub - Office
Industrial
75
'07

'08

Source: Real Capital Analytics

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13
Spreads Remain Elevated
10yr UST*

Cap Rate

Spread (bps)

10%

700

9%
600
8%
500

7%
6%

400

5%
300

4%
3%

200

2%
100
1%
0%

0
'01

'02

'03

Source: Real Capital Analytics

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13
REALTOR® Markets Deal Size
2013 CRE Lending Survey: Value of most recent sales transaction

> $10,000,000
$5,000,000 - $10,000,000
$2,000,000 - $5,000,000

$1,000,000 - $2,000,000

2%
1%
12%
17%

$500,000 - $1,000,000
$250,000 - $500,000
< $250,000

Source: NAR

26%
22%
21%
REALTOR® CRE Markets Rebound
Sales Volume (YoY % Chg)
Major CRE Markets

Realtor CRE Markets

200%

150%

Deals > $2.5M

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets
Sales Prices (YoY % Chg)
Moody’s/RCA CPPI - Major Markets

Realtor CRE Markets

10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%

-25.0%

Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
Small Banks Important to REALTORS®
3%

1%

Current sources of financing for commercial deals
National banks (“Big four”)

8%

11%

Regional banks
Local banks

17%

Credit unions
Life insurance companies
REITs

18%

Private investors
Public companies
Small Business Administration

4%

25%

6%
7%
Source: NAR

Other, please specify
SIOR Markets in Recovery
SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index
160.0

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0

Source: SIOR, NAR
CCIM Quarterly Market Trends
Apartment Fundamentals
U.S. Apartment Fundamentals
300,000

Completions

Net Absorption

Vac %

9.0
8.0

250,000

7.0
200,000

6.0

150,000

5.0

100,000

4.0
3.0

50,000

2.0
0
-50,000

1.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2013 2014

0.0

Source: NAR, Reis
Apartment Rents
Asking Rent $

Asking Rent % Chg

$1,400

10.0

$1,200

8.0

$1,000

6.0

$800

4.0

$600

2.0

$400

0.0

$200

-2.0

$0

-4.0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Reis
Apartment Vacancy Comparison
APARTMENT Vacancy Rates
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

Source: NAR, Reis
Apartment Investments
Billions

$ Volume

$40.0

2013 YTD: $45.3 B

$30.0
$20.0
$10.0
$'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

Avg. Cap Rate

9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
'01

'02

Source: Real Capital Analytics

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07
41,000

39,000

1980 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1982 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1988 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q1
1991 - Q1
1992 - Q1
1993 - Q1
1994 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1

Renter Households

In thousands

37,000

35,000

33,000

31,000

29,000

27,000

25,000
80,000

1980 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1982 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1988 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q1
1991 - Q1
1992 - Q1
1993 - Q1
1994 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1

Homeowner Households has not Grown since
2006 … but Primed to Grow
In thousands

75,000

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000
Household Formation Bursting Out
(in millions)
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Office Fundamentals
U.S. Office Fundamentals

Completions

Net Absorption

Vac %

150,000,000

20.0
18.0

100,000,000

16.0
14.0

Square Feet

50,000,000

12.0

0

10.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-50,000,000
-100,000,000

2013 2014 8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0

-150,000,000

0.0

Source: NAR, Reis
Office Rents
Asking Rent $

Asking Rent % Chg

$35.00

14.0

12.0

$30.00

10.0
$25.00

8.0
6.0

$20.00

4.0
$15.00

2.0

0.0

$10.00

-2.0
$5.00

-4.0

$0.00

-6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2013 2014
Source: Reis
Office Vacancy Comparison
OFFICE Vacancy Rates
30.0
25.0

20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

Source: NAR, Reis
Office Investments

Billions

$ Volume

$100.0

2013 YTD: $31.5B

$80.0
$60.0
$40.0
$20.0
$'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

Avg. Cap Rate

10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
'01

'02

Source: Real Capital Analytics

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07
Jobs in Professional Business and
Financial Services … at New Peak
27.0

In millions

26.5

26.0
25.5
25.0
24.5
24.0
23.5

23.0
2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Retail Fundamentals
U.S. Retail Fundamentals
Completions

Net Absorption

Vac %

50,000,000

12.0

40,000,000

10.0

30,000,000
8.0

Square Feet

20,000,000
10,000,000

6.0

0
-10,000,000
-20,000,000
-30,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2013 2014

4.0

2.0

0.0
Source: NAR, Reis
Retail Rents
Asking Rent $

Asking Rent % Chg

$25.00

5.0
4.0

$20.00
3.0
2.0

$15.00

1.0
$10.00

0.0
-1.0

$5.00
-2.0
$0.00

-3.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2013 2014
Source: Reis
Retail Vacancy Comparison
RETAIL Vacancy Rates
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Source: NAR, Reis
Retail Investments
Billions

$ Volume

$35.0
$30.0

2013 YTD: $23.5B

$25.0
$20.0

$15.0
$10.0
$5.0
$'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

10.0%

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

Avg. Cap Rate

9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%

Source: Real Capital Analytics
Jobs in Retail Trade
(Still Below Prior Peak)
15.8
15.6
15.4
15.2
15.0
14.8
14.6
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6

In millions

2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Spending Effect from Higher Home Prices
18% cumulative gains over 2 years
$240,000

Median Existing Home Price

$220,000
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Industrial Fundamentals
U.S. Industrial Fundamentals

Completions

Net Absorption

Vac %

150,000,000

14.0
12.0

100,000,000

Square Feet

10.0
50,000,000

8.0
6.0

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2013 2014

4.0

-50,000,000
2.0
-100,000,000

0.0
Source: NAR, Reis
Industrial Rents
Asking Rent $

Asking Rent % Chg

$5.00

6.0

$4.90

4.0

$4.80

2.0

$4.70
0.0
$4.60
-2.0

$4.50
$4.40

-4.0

$4.30

-6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2013 2014
Source: Reis
Industrial Vacancy Comparison
INDUSTRIAL Vacancy Rates
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Source: NAR, Reis
Industrial Investments
Billions

$ Volume

$20.0
$15.0
$10.0
$5.0
$'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

Avg. Cap Rate

10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
'01

'02

Source: Real Capital Analytics

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07
Jobs in Wholesale Trade
(Still Below Prior Peak)
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1

In millions

2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
1992 - Jan
1992 - Dec
1993 - Nov
1994 - Oct
1995 - Sep
1996 - Aug
1997 - Jul
1998 - Jun
1999 - May
2000 - Apr
2001 - Mar
2002 - Feb
2003 - Jan
2003 - Dec
2004 - Nov
2005 - Oct
2006 - Sep
2007 - Aug
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jun
2010 - May
2011 - Apr
2012 - Mar
2013 - Feb

U.S. International Trade
Long-Term Growth
Exports
Imports

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
U.S. International Trade
But No Growth in Recent Years
Exports

Imports

250000

200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013
- Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul
International Dimension
International CRE Investment in U.S.

Source: Real Capital Analytics
Volume of International Transactions
(April 2012 to March 2013)
REALTORS® Working With International Clients
• In Past 12 Months, 27 Percent of
REALTORS® Have Worked with an
International Client.
– Clients Residing in Another
Country: 51 Percent.
– Clients Residing in this Country:
49 Percent.
– A Niche Market on Buyer Side:
Facility with languages and
cultures very helpful.
– On Sellers Side—Understanding
of foreign cultures helpful.
Percent of Total U.S. International Sales by Country
Top Countries—2013 Report

Shares of the Top Countries of Origin to
Total Reported International Transactions
Canada
Mexico
United Kingdom
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Venezuela

3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%

*China includes PROC, Hong Kong, Taiwan

5%
5%

8%

12%

23%
Top State Destinations—2013 Report
Florida

23%

California

17%

Arizona

9%

Texas

9%

New York

3%

Virginia

3%

Nevada

2%

Hawaii

2%

Illinois

2%

Michigan

2%

Georgia

2%
Majority of International Buyers Pay All Cash
Impact of the Value of the Dollar on Foreign
Purchases
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun

U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan
(Yuan per $)

8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun

U.S. Dollar vs. Euro
($ per Euro)

1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug
2001 - Mar
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jun

Broad U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness
(Broad Trade Weighted)

140

130

120

110

100

90

80
REALTORS® Working With International Clients

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Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook

  • 1. Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum San Francisco, CA November 8, 2013
  • 2. GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no Fresh Recession (Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery) % growth from one year ago 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5
  • 3. 140000 138000 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - May U.S. Total Payroll Jobs (8 million lost … 7 million gained) In thousands 136000 134000 132000 130000 128000 126000 124000
  • 4. States with Fast Job Growth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 State North Dakota Utah Idaho Texas Colorado Minnesota Georgia Washington Arizona New Jersey Job Growth Rate 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
  • 5. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul Unemployment Rate 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
  • 6. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul Employment Rate 66 64 62 60 58 56 54
  • 7. 1990 - Jan 1992 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1998 - Jan 2000 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jan 1988 - Jan 1986 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1982 - Jan 1980 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1976 - Jan 1974 - Jan 1972 - Jan 1970 - Jan Labor Force Participation Rate: Record Low for Men and Cyclical Low for Women (Adults 20 years old and up) Women Men 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40
  • 8. 2012 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2000 - Jan 1998 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1992 - Jan 1990 - Jan 1988 - Jan 1986 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1982 - Jan 1980 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1976 - Jan 1974 - Jan 140 1972 - Jan 1970 - Jan 150 Well Shy of Long Run Trend (6 to 8 million more jobs needed) In millions 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60
  • 9. -2 -4 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q2 1982 - Q3 1983 - Q4 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q2 1987 - Q3 1988 - Q4 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q2 1992 - Q3 1993 - Q4 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q2 1997 - Q3 1998 - Q4 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q2 2002 - Q3 2003 - Q4 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q2 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q2 2012 - Q3 Consumer Spending Growth (2% growth; not 3% or 4%) 8 6 4 2 0
  • 10. -5 -10 -15 -20 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q3 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q3 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q3 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q3 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q3 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q3 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q3 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q3 2013 - Q1 Business Spending Growth (3% growth; not sustained 5% to 10%) 25 20 15 10 5 0
  • 12. Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?) % Fed Funds 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 forecast forecast
  • 13. 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jun 2005 - Nov 2006 - Apr 2006 - Sep 2007 - Feb 2007 - Jul 2007 - Dec 2008 - May 2008 - Oct 2009 - Mar 2009 - Aug 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jun 2010 - Nov 2011 - Apr 2011 - Sep 2012 - Feb 2012 - Jul 2012 - Dec 2013 - May Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing Total Asset Purchase $ million
  • 14. 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2013 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2009 - Jan Core 2008 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2003 - Jan Consumer Price Inflation Less than 2% (% change from one year ago) Overall
  • 15. -1 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jun 2003 - Nov 2004 - Apr 2004 - Sep 2005 - Feb 2005 - Jul 2005 - Dec 2006 - May 2006 - Oct 2007 - Mar 2007 - Aug 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jun 2008 - Nov 2009 - Apr 2009 - Sep 2010 - Feb 2010 - Jul 2010 - Dec 2011 - May 2011 - Oct 2012 - Mar 2012 - Aug 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jun Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 2% and On the Way to 3%) Owners' Equivalent Rent Renters' Rent 5 4 3 2 1 0
  • 16. 2012 - Q4 2012 - Q1 2011 - Q2 2010 - Q3 2009 - Q4 2009 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2007 - Q3 2006 - Q4 2006 - Q1 2005 - Q2 2004 - Q3 2003 - Q4 2003 - Q1 2002 - Q2 2001 - Q3 2000 - Q4 75000 2000 - Q1 Household Net Worth $ billion 70000 65000 60000 55000 50000 45000 40000
  • 17. 2013 - May 2012 - Dec 2012 - Jul 2012 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2011 - Apr 2010 - Nov 2010 - Jun 2010 - Jan 2009 - Aug 2009 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2008 - May 2007 - Dec 2007 - Jul 2007 - Feb 2006 - Sep 2006 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2005 - Jun 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 2005 - Jan Federal Government Spending (Stimulus … Flat … Decline) $ trillion
  • 18. Shrinking Budget Deficit (in $billion) 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 -1600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  • 19. 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1992 - Jan 1993 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1995 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1997 - Jan 1998 - Jan 1999 - Jan 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan Federal Government Annual Spending/Revenue $ trillion Tax Revenue Govt Spending
  • 21. Germany • Too High Trade Surplus • No Stimulus • Budget Surplus in 2013 (though still has high debt from prior deficits) • Blame Germany for holding back the World Economy? • Or Emulate Germany’s Economic Reforms?
  • 22. International Sovereign Borrowing Cost Country 10-year Government Borrowing Cost Japan 0.6% Switzerland 1.1% Germany 1.7% France 2.3% Canada 2.4% U.S. 2.5% Britain 2.6% China 4.0% Spain 4.1% Italy 4.2% Russia 7.5% India 8.6% Greece 8.7% Brazil 11.6%
  • 23. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun Consumer Confidence Now and About Future Expectations Present 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
  • 24. Productivity and Income Doubling Productivity Growth Years for Income to Double Examples 1% 72 years U.S. today? 2% 36 years 1970 to 2007 (pre-financial market crash) 3% 24 years U.S. post-war to 1970 5% 14 years Asian Tigers
  • 25. GDP Forecast 5.0 4.5 4.0 CBO 3.5 White House 3.0 Blue Chip Consensus 2.5 2.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
  • 27. Transactions Up 27% YoY – 2013 YTD billions Individual $180 Portfolio Entity $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 200% 100% 0% -100% Source: Real Capital Analytics
  • 28. CRE Prices Advance – CBD Off & Apt Lead Moody’s/RCA CPPI 225 Apartment CBD-Office 175 Retail 125 Sub - Office Industrial 75 '07 '08 Source: Real Capital Analytics '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
  • 29. Spreads Remain Elevated 10yr UST* Cap Rate Spread (bps) 10% 700 9% 600 8% 500 7% 6% 400 5% 300 4% 3% 200 2% 100 1% 0% 0 '01 '02 '03 Source: Real Capital Analytics '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
  • 30. REALTOR® Markets Deal Size 2013 CRE Lending Survey: Value of most recent sales transaction > $10,000,000 $5,000,000 - $10,000,000 $2,000,000 - $5,000,000 $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 2% 1% 12% 17% $500,000 - $1,000,000 $250,000 - $500,000 < $250,000 Source: NAR 26% 22% 21%
  • 31. REALTOR® CRE Markets Rebound Sales Volume (YoY % Chg) Major CRE Markets Realtor CRE Markets 200% 150% Deals > $2.5M 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
  • 32. Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets Sales Prices (YoY % Chg) Moody’s/RCA CPPI - Major Markets Realtor CRE Markets 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% Sources: NAR, Real Capital Analytics
  • 33. Small Banks Important to REALTORS® 3% 1% Current sources of financing for commercial deals National banks (“Big four”) 8% 11% Regional banks Local banks 17% Credit unions Life insurance companies REITs 18% Private investors Public companies Small Business Administration 4% 25% 6% 7% Source: NAR Other, please specify
  • 34. SIOR Markets in Recovery SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index 160.0 Northeast Midwest South West 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 Source: SIOR, NAR
  • 36. Apartment Fundamentals U.S. Apartment Fundamentals 300,000 Completions Net Absorption Vac % 9.0 8.0 250,000 7.0 200,000 6.0 150,000 5.0 100,000 4.0 3.0 50,000 2.0 0 -50,000 1.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  • 37. Apartment Rents Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg $1,400 10.0 $1,200 8.0 $1,000 6.0 $800 4.0 $600 2.0 $400 0.0 $200 -2.0 $0 -4.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Reis
  • 38. Apartment Vacancy Comparison APARTMENT Vacancy Rates 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  • 39. Apartment Investments Billions $ Volume $40.0 2013 YTD: $45.3 B $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Avg. Cap Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% '01 '02 Source: Real Capital Analytics '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
  • 40. 41,000 39,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 Renter Households In thousands 37,000 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000
  • 41. 80,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow In thousands 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000
  • 42. Household Formation Bursting Out (in millions) 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
  • 43. Office Fundamentals U.S. Office Fundamentals Completions Net Absorption Vac % 150,000,000 20.0 18.0 100,000,000 16.0 14.0 Square Feet 50,000,000 12.0 0 10.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -50,000,000 -100,000,000 2013 2014 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 -150,000,000 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  • 44. Office Rents Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg $35.00 14.0 12.0 $30.00 10.0 $25.00 8.0 6.0 $20.00 4.0 $15.00 2.0 0.0 $10.00 -2.0 $5.00 -4.0 $0.00 -6.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Reis
  • 45. Office Vacancy Comparison OFFICE Vacancy Rates 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  • 46. Office Investments Billions $ Volume $100.0 2013 YTD: $31.5B $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Avg. Cap Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% '01 '02 Source: Real Capital Analytics '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
  • 47. Jobs in Professional Business and Financial Services … at New Peak 27.0 In millions 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  • 48. Retail Fundamentals U.S. Retail Fundamentals Completions Net Absorption Vac % 50,000,000 12.0 40,000,000 10.0 30,000,000 8.0 Square Feet 20,000,000 10,000,000 6.0 0 -10,000,000 -20,000,000 -30,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  • 49. Retail Rents Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg $25.00 5.0 4.0 $20.00 3.0 2.0 $15.00 1.0 $10.00 0.0 -1.0 $5.00 -2.0 $0.00 -3.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Reis
  • 50. Retail Vacancy Comparison RETAIL Vacancy Rates 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  • 51. Retail Investments Billions $ Volume $35.0 $30.0 2013 YTD: $23.5B $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 10.0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Avg. Cap Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Source: Real Capital Analytics
  • 52. Jobs in Retail Trade (Still Below Prior Peak) 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 In millions 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  • 53. Spending Effect from Higher Home Prices 18% cumulative gains over 2 years $240,000 Median Existing Home Price $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 54. Industrial Fundamentals U.S. Industrial Fundamentals Completions Net Absorption Vac % 150,000,000 14.0 12.0 100,000,000 Square Feet 10.0 50,000,000 8.0 6.0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4.0 -50,000,000 2.0 -100,000,000 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  • 55. Industrial Rents Asking Rent $ Asking Rent % Chg $5.00 6.0 $4.90 4.0 $4.80 2.0 $4.70 0.0 $4.60 -2.0 $4.50 $4.40 -4.0 $4.30 -6.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Reis
  • 56. Industrial Vacancy Comparison INDUSTRIAL Vacancy Rates 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Source: NAR, Reis
  • 57. Industrial Investments Billions $ Volume $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Avg. Cap Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% '01 '02 Source: Real Capital Analytics '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
  • 58. Jobs in Wholesale Trade (Still Below Prior Peak) 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 In millions 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
  • 59. 1992 - Jan 1992 - Dec 1993 - Nov 1994 - Oct 1995 - Sep 1996 - Aug 1997 - Jul 1998 - Jun 1999 - May 2000 - Apr 2001 - Mar 2002 - Feb 2003 - Jan 2003 - Dec 2004 - Nov 2005 - Oct 2006 - Sep 2007 - Aug 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jun 2010 - May 2011 - Apr 2012 - Mar 2013 - Feb U.S. International Trade Long-Term Growth Exports Imports 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
  • 60. U.S. International Trade But No Growth in Recent Years Exports Imports 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul - Jan - Jul
  • 62. International CRE Investment in U.S. Source: Real Capital Analytics
  • 63. Volume of International Transactions (April 2012 to March 2013)
  • 64. REALTORS® Working With International Clients • In Past 12 Months, 27 Percent of REALTORS® Have Worked with an International Client. – Clients Residing in Another Country: 51 Percent. – Clients Residing in this Country: 49 Percent. – A Niche Market on Buyer Side: Facility with languages and cultures very helpful. – On Sellers Side—Understanding of foreign cultures helpful.
  • 65. Percent of Total U.S. International Sales by Country Top Countries—2013 Report Shares of the Top Countries of Origin to Total Reported International Transactions Canada Mexico United Kingdom Argentina Australia Brazil Venezuela 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% *China includes PROC, Hong Kong, Taiwan 5% 5% 8% 12% 23%
  • 66. Top State Destinations—2013 Report Florida 23% California 17% Arizona 9% Texas 9% New York 3% Virginia 3% Nevada 2% Hawaii 2% Illinois 2% Michigan 2% Georgia 2%
  • 67. Majority of International Buyers Pay All Cash
  • 68. Impact of the Value of the Dollar on Foreign Purchases
  • 69. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan (Yuan per $) 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 5
  • 70. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun U.S. Dollar vs. Euro ($ per Euro) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8
  • 71. 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun Broad U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness (Broad Trade Weighted) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80
  • 72. REALTORS® Working With International Clients