In the laboratory, copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) has achieved the highest champion cell efficiencies (over 20%) of all thin-film photovoltaic (TFPV) technologies. CIGS has not, however, lived up to predictions about is ability to compete with crystalline silicon (c-Si). A combination of manufacturing issues and the global economic downturn significantly impacted the sector. Recent capacity expansions, a dramatic increase in the number of market players and growing investment activity are signaling renewed interest, though. NanoMarkets, a leading provider of market research and analysis of the opportunities in advanced materials and emerging energy and electronics markets, expects revenues from CIGS consumed in PV applications to grow from $613.4 million in 2011 to $5.41 billion in 2018. The material for this paper was drawn from the NanoMarkets report, CIGS Photovoltaics Market Opportunities 2011

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Revived Interest in CIGS Creating Real
Opportunities in Photovoltaics
A NanoMarkets White Paper
Published September 2011
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Revived Interest in CIGS Creating Real Opportunities in
Photovoltaics
In the laboratory, copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) has achieved the highest champion cell
efficiencies (over 20%) of all thin-film photovoltaic (TFPV) technologies. CIGS has not, however, lived Page | 3
up to predictions about is ability to compete with crystalline silicon (c-Si). A combination of
manufacturing issues and the global economic downturn significantly impacted the sector. Recent
capacity expansions, a dramatic increase in the number of market players and growing investment
activity are signaling renewed interest, though. NanoMarkets, a leading provider of market research
and analysis of the opportunities in advanced materials and emerging energy and electronics markets,
expects revenues from CIGS consumed in PV applications to grow from $613.4 million in 2011 to $5.41
billion in 2018.
CIGS Revenues 2011-2018
6,000
5,000
4,000
$ Millions
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
© NanoMarkets, LC
The CIGS Advantage
NanoMarkets believes that CIGS has a huge market advantage over other thin-film photovoltaic (TFPV)
technologies. Not only can it be used to create lightweight, flexible, thinner modules than other TFPV
options, commercial CIGS modules are over 13% efficient, with some firms reporting best cells with 14-
16% efficiency. In fact, NanoMarkets expects that CIGS will be the only TFPV technology that might be
able to compete with conventional c-Si PV technology where C-Si is already established.
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Along with its high-performance capability, the flexibility of CIGS modules continues to be a critical
advantage. With this technology, flexible substrates for flexible devices with twice the efficiency of
existing flexible products can be created. Less expensive processes, cheaper substrates and the need
to use much less material for CIGS PV compared to c-Si leads NanoMarkets to predict that CIGS will
someday achieve price parity with c-Si PV, which will open up new markets that other types of TPFV
Page | 4
have not had access to.
Three Key Markets
NanoMarkets has identified three markets that will provide opportunities for growth in the CIGS PV
sector: the conventional panel market, the building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) market and the
mobile power market for portable electronics.
The conventional panel market: The first target for CIGS will be the conventional panel market, which
is becoming commoditized and thus very competitive from a price/performance perspective.
NanoMarkets expects that costs will fall below $1/watt by 2014. The manufacturing concerns about
CIGS (see below) do raise some question as to whether or not this technology can compete effectively.
If CIGS efficiencies reach 15% by 2014 as expected, however, CIGS could potentially be sold at a price
point closer to that of c-Si PV than other TFPV technologies.
And for applications where glass encapsulation is not possible, if CIGS suppliers can prove that CIGS
encapsulation technologies provide competitive lifetimes, they should be able to compete on
efficiency and cost in the c-Si PV panel market.
Finally, while CIGS PV can be used in residential installations and utility-scale projects, NanoMarkets
believes that CIGS PV panel manufacturers should target conventional panel opportunities where
weight is an important concern, such as rooftop installations.
Rigid and flexible BIPV: CIGS PV is well suited for the BIPV market. The flexibility of CIGS panels is a
real advantage that cannot be matched by cSi, and therefore the largest percentage of CIGS PV sales
will be to the flexible BIPV market. However, NanoMarkets believes that CIGS is also suitable for rigid
tiles and BIPV glass due to its lighter weight, capability for direct deposition onto glass or metal, and
higher power than thin-film silicon. And while CIGS’ sensitivity to moisture is a concern and current
encapsulation solutions are typically high cost, BIPVs are generally higher cost materials and thus can
often absorb the additional expenses.
Rigid BIPV is a natural fit for CIGS for several reasons:
The uniform appearance of CIGS gives better aesthetics,
CIGS provides continuous production of power under indirect or steep angled illuminations
with less of a power drop than c-Si, and
CIGS offers high efficiency
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NanoMarkets believes that the lighter weight and greater efficiency of CIGS combined with its
potentially lower cost and aesthetic advantages could give it a real edge. CIGS panels also come in a
wide range of sizes, can be uniformly black, grey or other colors or have visible pattered dark or silver
lines, and can be custom designed to fit the tile products they go with, making them ideally suited to
BIPV.
Page | 5
BIPV glass applications will also benefit from the aesthetic advantages of CIGS PV. And because CIGS
PV is usually built on glass anyway, producing BIPV CIGS products requires only switching to
architectural glass. In fact, NanoMarkets believes that the natural fit of CIGS PV in this market results
in improved aesthetics, greater integration of PV into the final BIPV product, and a greater ability to
hide the PV costs in the overall cost of the building materials, all of which add up to better
opportunities for increased margins.
Flexible BIPV panels are laid onto a roof or attached to roofing materials prior to installation.
NanoMarkets believes they are an important opportunity for flexible CIGS PV manufactures. Laminates
or overlays can also be installed onto any surface to which they can be glued – walls, doors, fences,
etc., and direct marketing to end-users of these types of installations is another opportunity for CIGS
PV suppliers.
More advanced BIPV products, where the PV cells are well integrated into the building materials so
that the cost of the PV cannot be separated from the cost of the building materials, offer a more
lucrative market. In this case, it is easier for the building owner to recoup the cost of installing BIPV
through lower utility bills.
One example of such a product is Dow Chemical’s POWERHOUSE shingle using CIGS PV cells
manufactured by Global Solar and targeted for launch in 2011. NanoMarkets expects this product to
be highly profitable. This strategy provides an opportunity for CIGS suppliers to become directly
involved in fully-integrated products with mass market appeal. And because the cost of PV appears to
be lower, it is more attractive for the end-user. With its higher efficiency, CIGS PV is ideal for this
application.
Portable electronics: Most portable electronics that contain portable PV devices rely on dye-sensitized
cell (DSC) or organic PV (OPV) technologies, but CIGS is suitable for this market and can provide the
highest power PV systems. Most uses are in solar battery chargers. The market is much smaller than
the BIPV and conventional solar panel sectors, but the margins are likely to be quite large. CIGS
suppliers could develop their own line of stylish products to encourage adoption or partner with high-
end consumer products companies, a strategy adopted by leading producer Global Solar.
Other possible applications for CIGS PV include PV-active clothing, umbrellas, tents, bags, etc.
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Changing Demand
Currently the conventional panel market accounts for 98% of sales, but that will drop to 66% in 2018,
with BIPV picking up the majority of the difference. BIPV currently represents a very small market for
CIGS PV, but will have the largest revenues by 2018, growing nearly 175%. This growth will be largely
driven by flexible BIPV products, but there will also be significant increases in demand for CIGS in rigid Page | 6
BIPVand BIPV glass. Revenues from sales of CIGS PV into other flexible product applications will also
increase dramatically (~46 times) from a very small base.
Overcoming Sensitivities
A major drawback of CIGS PV compared to crystalline silicone is its moisture sensitivity. Conventional
panels and other rigid products don’t have this problem. As a result, flexible encapsulation is a major
component of flexible CIGS development.
The most robust approach today involves the use of dyadic systems, which are comprised of
alternating layers of two different materials, usually polymers and ceramics. But this approach requires
many layers to be really effective, and that adds cost. Furthermore, the deposition and curing
conditions can potentially hurt the cells.
As a result, there is pent up demand for less costly and simpler technologies. Recent developments are
in part helping drive the growing interest in CIGS. Major chemical companies including Dow Chemical,
Fujifilm, 3M (working with SoloPower) and DuPont (working with the US Department of Energy) have
all announced progress in encapsulant technologies for CIGS PV.
NanoMarkets believes that, ultimately, the opportunities for encapsulation will depend on the PV
application. For portable products with a minimum expected lifespan, low cost encapsulation that
provides a minimum level of performance will likely be satisfactory. For flexible BIPV that is expected
to last for decades, very robust encapsulation will be necessary. It is in these applications that the
recent developments mentioned above will enable CIGS to achieve its true market potential.
The Question of Indium Supply
CIGS producers face uncertainty in indium supply and pricing. The display industry is the largest
consumer of indium (in the form of indium tin oxide (ITO) for transparent conductors, and demand is
predicted to increase as this market continues to expand. Furthermore, indium prices have risen
recently and are expected to continue to climb over the next several years.
Much of the pricing issue has arisen as the result of actions taken by the Chinese government to limit
exports. There are active indium sources in North America and Australia with stockpiles of
concentrates, and they now have incentive to sell this inventory. It is uncertain how quickly such
activities would impact the market, however. Historically the industry has been slow to respond to
supply/demand swings.
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The Manufacturing Issue
CIGS producers are still faced with the challenge of producing high efficiency cells on a commercial
scale. Performance depends on quality, so when developing production methods, the difficulty and
cost of creating CIGS films must be balanced with quality and performance.
Page | 7
Conventional vacuum deposition methods including sputtering and evaporation are well understood,
available and have lead to the highest performing cells. Over 90% of the CIGS PV produced today is
vacuum deposited.
Quality is an issue when these processes are scaled up, however. Metal waste is also seen as a real
issue for both sputtering and evaporation. And currently debate continues regarding whether to scale
up batch processes or use continuous methods to achieve faster processing and larger substrates. To
date, the largest growth has been in rigid, batch processing, most likely because it is widely
understood and been demonstrated to achieve volume production in the tens of megawatts.
NanoMarkets predicts, however, that a gradual shift will take place from these classical methods to
alternatives such as electrodeposition, roll-to-roll (R2R) and printing.
Electrodeposition: Electrodepostion utilizes simple precursors and relatively low cost equipment, and
margins are not significantly affected if the plant is run at lower than capacity. The technique is also
more efficient than conventional methods in terms of energy consumption and waste generation. For
these reasons, NanoMarkets believes that electrodeposition of CIGS may offer a strong entry point for
a number of firms. Odersun is the currently the clear leader with the largest commercial production
capacity. Others using electrodeposition include SoloPower (commercial), NEXCIS and CIS Solartechnik
(pilot plant) and CIS Solar (research).
Roll-to-roll: Continues R2R processes are expected to be more scalable than batch processes and are
ideally suited for flexible substrates. Approximately one-third of CIGS suppliers have or are developing
R2R processes. Global Solar, Oderson and MiaSole have all demonstrated high volume production at
tens of megawatts. This process also seems well suited for smaller producers and could offer licensing
opportunities to major players. Global Solar appears to be pursuing this opportunity with Istar Solar
and Shurjo Energy.
While rigid manufacturing presently dominates and will continue to do so, NanoMarkets expects roll-
to-roll manufacturing to account for as much as 35% of the market by 2018.
Printing: Printing was initially thought to be the solution for commercial scale CIGS manufacturing, but
now appears to have issues of its own, and NanoMarkets expects that printed CIGS will remain a
relatively small part of the CIGS market for at least the next eight years.
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The Competitive Landscape
About 50 companies are presently vying for a piece of the CIGS market compared to 20 in 2009. Many
of the newer firms are in Asia, and Nanomarkets believes that there is a special fit between CIGS and
China in particular, due to the situation with indium and the growing demand from an increasing
middle class for demand higher value products such as those containing CIGS PV. Page | 8
But NanoMarkets does not believe that the market can support 50 suppliers. About six leaders will
emerge by 2012/2013, each producing over 10 megawatts and a few of those will ramp up to truly
high volumes. An additional dozen or so will produce tens of megawatts.
New key players include Daiyang Metal and Stion/TSMC. Solar Frontier (backed by Shell) is
constructing a 900 MW factory that is expected to be fully operational in 2011. MiaSole has raised
$100 million in new money and is expanding capacity.
Conclusion
There is considerable evidence to suggest that CIGS makers have been correct to make such
investments. Applications for which CIGS is being targeted over the next several years already are
being pursued by firms using other TFPV technologies and should be relatively easy for CIGS firms to
capture due to its higher efficiency.
CIGS PV may also enable new applications where the size or low power output of other TFPV
technologies limits their viability.
Most notably, growth of CIGS will be substantial if only the announced planned capacity is actually
installed and operated at modest levels. And with silicon supply problems over, c-Si PV is growing
rapidly again and TFPV technologies will have a hard time competing because of their lower
efficiencies – except CIGS.
For additional details about the NanoMarkets report, CIGS Photovoltaics Markets – 2011 please visit
the NanoMarkets website at www.nanomarkets.net or contact us via email at
sales@nanomarkets.net or by phone at 804-270-4370.
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