CIGS Photovoltaics Markets-2012

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CIGS Photovoltaics Markets–2012
Nano-505

Published February 2012

© NanoMarkets, LC

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1
E.1 Opportunities for CIGS Panel Makers ............................................................................ 1 Page | i
E.1.1 Conventional Panel Opportunities ...............................................................................................................1
E.1.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGS .........................................................................................................................2
E.1.3 Mobile and Portable Opportunities for CIGS ...............................................................................................4

E.2 Opportunities for Firms Supplying Materials to the CIGS industry ................................. 4
E.3 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost .................................... 6
E.4 Firms to Watch ............................................................................................................ 7
E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PV ................................................................. 9

Chapter One: Introduction ................................................................................................... 13
1.1 Background to this Report .......................................................................................... 13
1.1.1 CIGS in a World of Reduced Subsidies and Economic Uncertainty ............................................................14
1.1.2 What Does Low Cost Natural Gas Mean for CIGS Markets? ......................................................................14
1.1.3 Is CIGS Ready for High-Volume Manufacturing? .......................................................................................15
1.1.4 Will Flexible CIGS Be an Advantage vs. Other PV Technologies? ...............................................................16
1.1.5 CIGS and BIPV: A Match Made for Rooftops? ............................................................................................16
1.1.6 CIGS' Achilles Heel: Lifetimes and Encapsulation ......................................................................................17

1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report ............................................................................ 17
1.3 Methodology of this Report ........................................................................................ 18
1.4 Plan of this Report ...................................................................................................... 19

Chapter Two: The Supply Side of CIGS PV ............................................................................. 20
2.1 Solyndra: Poor Execution or Uncompetitive Technology? ........................................... 20
2.2 What will Price Parity with Crystalline Silicon PV do to CIGS? ...................................... 22
2.3 Will CIGS be Able to Surpass CdTe in Cost/Watt? ........................................................ 22
2.4 CIGS Materials: The Indium Issue ............................................................................... 23
2.5 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost .................................. 26
2.5.1 Conventional Vacuum Deposition .............................................................................................................26


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2.5.2 Printing: What's the Holdup? .....................................................................................................................27
2.5.3 Electrodeposition: A Middle-of-the-Road Alternative ...............................................................................30
2.5.4 Roll-to-Roll: Is it Really an Advantage? ......................................................................................................33

2.6 Other Components of CIGS PV .................................................................................... 34
2.6.1 Electrodes: Changing Materials ................................................................................................................34 Page | ii
2.6.2 Transparent Electrode Materials ...............................................................................................................35
2.6.3 Other Electrode and Reflector Materials ...................................................................................................35
2.6.4 CIGS' Special Encapsulation Needs ............................................................................................................37

2.7 The Future: New Architectures and Next Generation CIGS PV .................................... 39
2.8 Key Suppliers of Materials Unique to CIGS PV ............................................................. 40
2.8.1 Sputtering Materials ..................................................................................................................................40
2.8.2 Indium Corporation ....................................................................................................................................41
2.8.3 Umicore......................................................................................................................................................41
2.8.4 American Elements ....................................................................................................................................42
2.8.5 Nanoco .......................................................................................................................................................42

2.9 Key Points Made in this Chapter ................................................................................. 43

Chapter Three: CIGS Market Opportunities .......................................................................... 47
3.1 How do Changes in Subsidies Change the CIGS Landscape? ......................................... 47
3.2 How Does Plentiful Natural Gas Change the CIGS Landscape? ..................................... 48
3.3 High Performance. The CIGS Advantage in PV Applications ........................................ 49
3.3.1 Conventional Module Market Opportunities ............................................................................................50
3.3.2 Rigid BIPV Market Opportunities ...............................................................................................................51
3.3.3 CIGS BIPV Semi-Transparent Glass.............................................................................................................52

3.4 Flexible CIGS: The Key to a High-Growth Market? ....................................................... 53
3.4.1 Flexible BIPV Opportunities .......................................................................................................................54
3.4.2 Other Flexible Application Opportunities ..................................................................................................57
3.4.3 Is Durability Still an Issue?..........................................................................................................................60

3.5 The Crowded CIGS Market and Longer-Term Trends ................................................... 61
3.5.1 Industry shakeout soon? ............................................................................................................................61
3.5.2 CIGS Prospects in China .............................................................................................................................64

3.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter ................................................................................. 64


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Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for CIGS PV and Its Materials ......................................... 69
4.1 Forecasting Methodology ........................................................................................... 69
4.1.1 Data Sources ..............................................................................................................................................69
4.1.2 Changes from Previous Reports .................................................................................................................70
4.1.3 Scope of Forecast .......................................................................................................................................70 Page | iii
4.1.4 Alternative Scenarios .................................................................................................................................71

4.2 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Product Type ......................................................................... 71
4.2.1 Conventional Panels...................................................................................................................................72
4.2.2 BIPV ............................................................................................................................................................73
4.2.3 Other Products ...........................................................................................................................................76

4.3 Forecasts of CIGS PV by Manufacturing Technology .................................................... 78
4.3.1 Forecasts by Rigid vs. Flexible Manufacturing ...........................................................................................78
4.3.2 Forecasts by CIGS Deposition Method .......................................................................................................79

4.4 Summary of Forecasts ................................................................................................ 80
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used In this Report ............................................................. 84
About the Author ............................................................................................................. 85

List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions) ..............................................................................................10
Exhibit 2-1: Printed CIGS Firms ....................................................................................................................................28
Exhibit 2-2: Electrodeposited CIGS Firms ....................................................................................................................32
Exhibit 3-1: CIGS PV Competitors in 2011 ...................................................................................................................62
Exhibit 3-2: CIGS PV Manufacturers by Geography: 2011 vs. 2009 .............................................................................63
Exhibit 4-1: Conventional CIGS PV Panels ($ Millions) .................................................................................................72
Exhibit 4-2: CIGS BIPV Products by BIPV Type ($ Millions) ..........................................................................................75
Exhibit 4-3: Forecasts of CIGS "Other" Products .........................................................................................................77
Exhibit 4-4: CIGS PV Revenues by Type of Manufacturing ($ Millions) .......................................................................79
Exhibit 4-5: CIGS PV Revenues by CIGS Deposition Process ($ Millions) .....................................................................80
Exhibit 4-6: Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions) ..............................................................................................81


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Executive Summary
Copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS) is the TFPV technology with the highest reported
efficiency and an ideal candidate for light-weight, high performance PV applications, but it has
been the “breakthrough PV film of the future” for a number of years due to difficulties moving Page | 1
from the lab to the manufacturing line. Finally, it looks like CIGS is ready to move into high-
volume manufacturing, especially rigid modules and BIPV applications.

 The announcement in January 2012 by enXco of the world’s largest CIGS-based solar
farm (150 MW) using modules from Solar Frontier demonstrates that CIGS really is
ready for “prime time” as a high-volume PV technology.

 Methods to deposit films on rigid and flexible modules by evaporation and
electrodeposition are reaching production maturity, while ink based systems still need
to be proven in high volume.

This report covers the current state of the art and growth forecasts for rigid modules, BIPV
applications and flexible modules for mobile charging applications.

E.1 Opportunities for CIGS Panel Makers
The CIGS module market is divided into three major areas: rigid modules for ground based and
roof based applications, where it competes against c-Si modules and CdTe modules; rigid BIPV
modules, where it competes against c-Si, CdTe and a-Si, and flexible BIPV modules where it
competes against a-Si; and semi-transparent glass applications, where it competes mostly
against c-Si. Each of these areas presents opportunities for CIGS. In NanoMarkets’ opinion,
there will be growth in all areas, with rigid modules seeing the highest volumes, and especially
robust growth observed in the BIPV sector.

E.1.1 Conventional Panel Opportunities
The conventional panel market is the CIGS market that has been most affected by external
factors over the past 12-24 months. The major change in the PV landscape in this time period
has been the drastic drop in the price of crystalline silicon PV modules. In early 2011, the
typical price of c-Si modules was $3.25/watt, by June 2011 it was $2.30/watt and by the end of
July it was just $1.50/watt. Most now predict the price will fall to below $1/watt by some time
in mid-2012, with a floor of around $0.80/watt by 2014. This scenario is a far cry from the
conventional wisdom for crystalline silicon PV prices, which generally predicted a floor near
$1/watt to be achieved in the 2014-2015 timeframe. An oversupply of polysilicon and
expanded capacity in China were the cause of the price fall.


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Most business models for CIGS did not anticipate how rapidly c-Si prices would drop, and how
quickly rigid PV modules would transition to a truly commodity product. Their models in
general worried more about CdTe and its low cost per watt. To be successful, CIGS companies
must adjust their business plans to comprehend this new landscape, particularly in the case of
rigid panel makers, who compete directly with c-Si and CdTe rigid modules. Page | 2

 If CIGS can’t beat c-Si on price, the efficiency isn’t quite as good as c-Si and the module
weight is not a concern, then most buyers will go with tried and true c-Si modules.

 It will be necessary for CIGS to both continue to improve efficiency and get to a lower
cost per watt price than c-Si to be successful.

 When competing with CdTe in rigid module applications, however, CIGS can lag slightly
on price due to CIGS’ higher efficiency.

In the long term, as CIGS modules with an efficiency nearing the best-in-class champion cells
move to production, production volumes move to large scale, and manufacturing efficiencies
such as thinner absorber layers and aggressive recycling of absorber materials become standard
practices, CIGS costs should drop below that of flat-panel crystalline silicon; but this scenario
may not happen in the near term.

The other change over the past two-three years has been the dramatic drop in the price of
natural gas for base load generating capacity. While models in the 2008 time frame contained
predictions of runaway prices for fossil fuels in which PV could make money at relatively high
module cost, the high-cost fossil fuel scenario did not come to pass (at least for natural gas,
which is selling at 10 year lows).

The cost structure for CIGS, however, is such that significant growth potential is there in spite of
low natural gas prices. Natural gas will provide low cost base-load capacity with half the carbon
footprint of coal, while CIGS can provide significant daytime capacity if it can stay under the
cost of the competing technologies and ramp to multi GW production volumes to provide
modules in sufficient quantity to meet demand.

E.1.2 BIPV Opportunities for CIGS
While rigid modules will likely drive the most volume for CIGS in the near future, the highest
growth and highest profit margins will be in the BIPV area.


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 The BIPV area is one where CIGS is well-suited because of its low module weight, high
efficiency and capability to be made into flexible modules of almost any shape, all of
which provide a significant advantage vs. competing options.

 BIPV is also less likely to undergo the rapid commoditization that has happened in the Page | 3
rigid module area.

BIPV modules come in both rigid and flexible types. The key advantages for CIGS in the rigid
module area versus c-Si are ascetics and superior generating capacity in indirect light.

 CIGS modules can be made monolithic and quite attractive for building applications
compared to the familiar c-Si modules with their individual cells and tabbing.

 CIGS by its nature has better generating characteristics in indirect light, which is more of
a factor for BIPV applications

Flexible BIPV CIGS modules are poised for significant growth over the next few years.

 The weight difference and flexible nature significantly reduce balance of system (BOS)
and installation costs in flat roof applications.

 Unlike c-Si and available CdTe modules, flexible CIGS modules can cover any shaped
building surface.

Currently, the challenge for flexible modules is reducing the cost of the complex dyadic film
encapsulation systems that are currently used to provide a long-term hermetic seal for the
moisture-sensitive CIGS absorber material. The cost of the encapsulation solution is the gate to
growth for flexible BIPV CIGS. The more aggressively this situation can be addressed, the higher
the potential growth of BIPV CIGS modules.

The final area where BIPV shows potential is for semi-transparent window applications.
Currently, there are a-Si solutions, but these systems are at much lower efficiency (5-9 percent)
than the CIGS modules coming on the market (11-13 percent). While the semi-transparent
glass CIGS market is in its infancy, it is one that bears watching. Low efficiency a-Si modules
have had some success in this market, so CIGS modules at double the efficiency should be very
attractive in such applications. CdTe currently does not have a transparent module on the
market.


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E.1.3 Mobile and Portable Opportunities for CIGS
Not all flexible PV products are BIPV products, and NanoMarkets believes that there are also
new opportunities for flexible CIGS PV manufacturers to produce flexible devices for other
markets. These other flexible devices are generally for the off-grid market (military in the near
term, civilian later on) and consumer products such as portable chargers and PV-active Page | 4
clothing/bags for charging portable electronics.

Military applications will be one of the first exploited in this area.

 Batteries (both weight and lifetimes) limit operational readiness.
 Portable chargers can significantly reduce the battery requirements for soldiers in the
field.
 Portable charges can also replace some generating capacity in forward operational
areas.

This capability is significant, as the cost of diesel delivered to forward operating bases in
Afghanistan is estimated to be about $300-$400/gallon. Current flexible PV solutions for the
military have generally been a-Si based. CIGS would represent a significant improvement in
efficiency for mobile military applications.

Another emerging market that will start to show significant growth is flexible chargers in
emerging regions. Of the 4.6 billion cell phones in the world, 2.6 billion are in regions with
unstable electrical grids by Western standards, and 100 million of them are off-grid all together.
Flexible modules will also have increased penetration for charging mobile applications and off-
grid use for recreational purposes as prices for such modules continue to drop.

In terms of volumes as measured by square footage, the portable electronics market is bound
to be much smaller than the BIPV or conventional solar panel market, but especially for military
applications and off-grid applications where the electrical grid reliability is spotty or
nonexistent, margins should be high.

Meeting an aggressive cost curve on portable flexible modules should be more achievable than
the BIPV area, as the lifetime expectations are less. A BIPV shingle has a lifetime expectancy of
20-30 years, while a cell-phone battery charger has a lifetime expectation equal to the phone.

E.2 Opportunities for Firms Supplying Materials to the CIGS industry
Electrodes: Suppliers of materials to the CIGS industry have several opportunities. The key
opportunity for suppliers of electrode materials for CIGS manufacturers lies mostly in the area


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of cost reduction. Convenient recycling of electrode materials, targets and the like are an area
where suppliers can help module manufacturers while enhancing their margins.

The transition from ITO to AZO seems well defined for the front conducting electrode material,
but the back conductor roadmap is one where materials providers can work with module Page | 5
manufacturers on the development of lower-cost metal foils for the flexible cells and
transparent back electrodes necessary for semi-transparent glass applications. Longer-term
options are TCOs based on sulfides or selenides, which can serve both as the junction layer and
the electrode. Metal doped zinc sulfide is one candidate that is being investigated.

Encapsulation: Advanced plastics for both substrates and encapsulation are key areas for
materials suppliers to focus on. Polyimides are currently the solution of choice for the
substrate if a metal foil is not used. While less expensive than stainless steel, polyimide is one
of the more expensive polymeric materials. Any solution that has the high temperature
tolerance and encapsulation qualities of polyimide at a lower cost point will be embraced by
the CIGS community as a new substrate material.

Encapsulation materials are another area where more advanced polymer solutions are needed.
Currently, encapsulation of flexible CIGS modules is accomplished with dyadic systems that
consist of multiple layers of polymer and thin ceramics and provide a hermetic seal for the
modules. While this approach may be viable today for BIPV applications where overall cost and
margins are higher, it will have to be replaced with lower cost solutions as competing products
come down in price.

Indium: Finally, because of the significant MW volumes forecasted for CIGS in addition to the
needs of other industries, stable new sources of indium will be needed to provide price
stability. Unlike the rare earths, of which over 90 percent are sourced from China, indium
resources are more evenly distributed around the world (although around 50 percent is
sourced from China). Significant increases in production in both Canada and South America
that will be coming on line over the next few years, along with additional indium recovery from
mine tailings that are currently not exploited, will do much to calm indium price instability.
Recycling also is a piece of the puzzle. Currently, two-thirds of indium comes from recycled
sources. New recycling techniques coming on line will further increase this amount.

The unknown about the indium market is whether or not China will aggressively use its indium
internally to develop a CIGS market or flat-panel display market to prop up the price of indium
on the open market. While it looked like this was the case twelve months ago, it is much less


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clear today in the face of falling PV prices in general and the fate of several Chinese CIGS
companies that have recently left the CIGS module field.

E.3 CIGS Manufacturing Processes: Targeting Throughput and Cost
Evaporation and sputtering: The deposition of the absorber layer for CIGS PV is currently Page | 6
dominated by vacuum deposition techniques. Vacuum methods are well understood and result
in quality films, but aggressive recycling will need to be put into place for long-term cost
control, as by its nature evaporation and sputtering have relatively low deposition efficiencies
(30 to 70 percent). Over 90 percent of today's commercial production of CIGS PV uses vacuum
methods to deposit the absorber layer.

Companies that choose vacuum deposition will also need to investigate methods to increase
throughput vs. the competing deposition methods. By its nature, vacuum deposition is slower
than either electrodeposition or printing. The most likely route for increasing throughput is to
increase deposition rates without sacrificing film quality or deposition efficiency.

For sputtered films, unless a soda lime glass substrate is used (providing trace amounts of
sodium), sodium or another alkali metal must be added as a dopant. A sulfur- or selenium-
containing gas is also required for sputtered films. Typically, these materials are hydrogen
selenide gas, hydrogen sulfide gas, or elemental sulfur or selenium (which are easily evaporated
to form elemental vapors due to their high volatility).

Electrochemical deposition: Electrodeposition is another option for non-vacuum deposition of
CIGS materials. Electrodeposition has the potential to be a lower cost method for absorber
deposition because it puts the materials only on the substrate (more efficient material
utilization), uses a less expensive equipment set than physical vapor deposition (PVD) methods,
and is a well known technique to deposit thin films. While electroplating is well known, the
multi component nature of CIGS makes the deposition more difficult than plating single
elements.

Even though modules made by electrodeposition of CIGS have been commercially available for
two years, it has not been met with the same level of enthusiasm in the venture capital markets
as printing. Our opinion, however, is that the lowest cost solution that requires the least new
materials development will in the long run be most successful, so well-known electrodeposition
may compete very well in the long-term with processes that require the development of
nanoparticle-based metallic inks.


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Printing and Inks: Printing was once supposed to be the deposition method that would
dominate the world of high-volume low cost CIGS cells. It was supposed to eliminate all of the
cost, throughput and energy intensity issues associated with classical evaporation and
sputtering technologies.
Page | 7
 Unfortunately, the story of printed CIGS has been one of constant over-commitment
and under-performance.

 The nature of engineering nanoparticles of metal into affordable inks with
manufacturable deposition and final film quality characteristics was much more difficult
than initially anticipated.

There were two projects announced in 2011: a 6 MW engagement with EDF Energies and a
500-kW facility at Camp Perry, Ohio. Additionally, the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (NREL) confirmed that its printed technology is capable of 17 percent efficiency.
However, because of the history of over commitment and underperformance, NanoMarkets
urges caution in this space until high volume deliveries are demonstrated.

E.4 Firms to Watch
As CIGS is a less mature technology than CdTe or c-Si, its supply chain is less developed and the
future is harder to gauge. NanoMarkets believes that as the CIGS market begins to take off,
there will be several areas where there will be opportunities for new entrants to compete as
demand for materials quickly expands. Because CIGS is a complicated material and CIGS PV
seems to have a lot of potential, the entry of new materials suppliers seems highly likely in this
space. Below is a summary of some of the current leaders supplying to the CIGS module
industry, as well as several leading module manufacturers to watch:

American Elements: American Elements Inc. (AE) is a U.S.-based company that manufactures a
wide variety of high purity metals and metal compounds. Several of its offerings are specific to
thin-film photovoltaic technologies including CIGS. Materials for CIGS PV cells are sold through
AE Solar Energy Group in the form of CIS/CIGS single crystals, powders, and nanoparticles. AE
manufactures high volume, high purity sputtering targets for each of these layers. It also offers
development services for specific customer needs. In September 2011, AE reiterated earlier
assurances that it has stable supplies of all rare earth metals and indium, but that prices for
rare earths will be volatile for the foreseeable future.

Umicore: Umicore S.A. of Belgium is a diverse materials technology company. For CIGS PV,
Umicore offers high-performance sputtering targets for the CIGS absorber layer and AZO


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sputtering targets for the top electrode. In September 2010, it announced a capital expenditure
plan of over €30 million to be invested over the next three years in boosting production of
rotary sputtering targets for large area thin-film PV depositions to meet increased demand.
Umicore‘s indium capacity is 50 tonnes/year, and its recycling capacity for CIGS waste is also 50
tonnes/year. Page | 8

Indium Corporation: Indium Corporation has been in the indium business for 75 years and is
involved in all applications for indium, including CIGS PV, ITO for PV, displays, and solders.
Since the advent of CIGS PV technology, photovoltaic solutions have become more important to
the company, with gallium also being a strategic part of Indium Corporation's business for
decades. It provides single-element and CIG sputtering targets and for electrodeposition,
promotes its indium sulfamate plating bath, which it claims allows control of grain sizes. The
company's core competency lies in the sourcing of indium, which it has been doing throughout
its existence.

Sputtering Materials: Sputtering Materials Inc. (SMI) of Reno, Nevada offers high-density (>99
percent) CIGS rotatable and planar targets up to 50 inches in length for thin-film CIGS PV
manufacturers. The high density—obtained by casting instead of pressing its targets— is
generally known to reduce the propensity for arcing and contamination that are common in
lower-density materials. It also provides target development services.

Nanoco: Nanoco Technologies of the U.K. is a small nanomaterials company that manufactures
semiconductor nanoparticles for CIGS PV cells and went public in 2009. Nanoco's "CIS" and
CIGS nanoparticles are used in inks for the printing of CIGS absorber layers without the use of
costly vacuum techniques. In April 2011, the company announced production of low kilogram
quantities of its quantum dot materials. While the firm is still a long way from production
volumes, it does show that such advanced materials are making their way from the lab and are
on the way to becoming viable in CIGS manufacturing.

Solar Frontier: As the largest CIGS manufacturing company in the world, Solar Frontier will be
the bellwether of CIG’s penetration in the rigid module markets. The announcement in January
2012 by enXco of the world’s largest CIGS-based solar farm (150 MW, mentioned above) using
modules from Solar Frontier demonstrates that CIGS can compete in high volume with c-Si and
CdTe. In 2011 in Miyazaki, Japan Solar Frontier opened the largest CIS production facility in the
world, with a reported capacity of 900 MW/year. Its modules are warranted for 25 years, and
the company received ISO 9001 certification in 2011.


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Dow: Dow’s Powerhouse CIGS-based solar shingle is a product to be watched as it will be a
very visible indicator of the acceptance of BIPV in residential applications. Production volumes
are small at this point, but they are now commercially available in Colorado. Dow plans to have
220 MW/year of capacity in place by 2015. The absorber layer was initially provided solely by
Global Solar, but in January 2012, NuvoSun was announced as a second source. Page | 9

TSMC: Another indication that CIGS is ready for high-volume manufacturing is the entry of
established high-volume technical manufacturing companies such as TSMC into the field. The
entry of TSMC, with its established record of efficient and cost-effective high volume
manufacturing, bodes well for CIGS PV technology. Semiconductor companies are especially
well-suited to thin-film solar, as they are very experienced in developing complex thin-film
depositions.

Companies such as TSMC also have established relationships with the equipment suppliers,
which also gives such firms and advantage over start ups. TSMC plans to have 1 GW of capacity
for CIGS available in three-five years. The company has committed $258 million on a facility in
Taichung that will provide 100 MW of capacity by the end of 2012 and another 100 MW in
2013, with an additional 700 MW coming on line in the next three-five years.

E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of CIGS PV
Exhibit E-1 summarizes NanoMarkets' forecasts for CIGS PV in both volume and revenue terms.
It also shows the breakout between the major product types—conventional panels, BIPV, and
other products—and between major manufacturing methods, roll-to-roll and batch processing
on rigid glass substrates.

What our numbers suggest is that, by the end of the forecast period discussed in this report,
the CIGS industry will be quite substantial in terms of revenues, even though there are still
some important manufacturing barriers to overcome. As we show in Chapter Four of this
report, we can reach quite high revenues for CIGS in 2019 by just assuming that currently
planned capacity is built, even if that capacity is used only modestly.


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Exhibit E-1 Summary of CIGS PV Forecasts ($ Millions)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CIGS Volume (MW)
CIGS Revenues ($ Millions) Page | 10

By Product Type (Percent MW):
Percent Conventional Panels
Percent BIPV
Percent Other Products

By Manufacturing Process (Percent
MW):
Percent Rigid Manufacturing
Percent Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing
© NanoMarkets 2012

Total CIGS Volume (MW)
12,000

10,000

8,000
MWs

6,000

4,000

2,000

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
© NanoMarkets, LC


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Total CIGS Revenues
7,000

6,000
Page | 11
5,000
$ Millions

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
© NanoMarkets, LC

This optimism should also be viewed in the context of what is happening in the PV industry as a
whole. After the end of the silicon shortage, c-Si PV is on a roll again even though margins are
becoming much thinner. In the light of this development, TFPV as a whole will have a harder
time competing, especially a-Si with its low efficiency. CdTe will also be affected, although the
aggressive cost work done by First Solar limits worries about efficiency in rigid module
applications. The high efficiency of CIGS will let it circumvent the efficiency issue, if it can
maintain an aggressive cost curve.

In our forecasts, NanoMarkets is doing its best not to be too optimistic about the prospects.
After all, this technology has all but drowned in optimism before, and that history should be a
warning sign. As a result, we have shown fairly modest evolution towards new goals for CIGS.
Although we strongly believe that the rise of BIPV is a key driver and its growth will be robust,
we do not see it being more than 50 percent of the CIGS market. Similarly, while we are
projecting that roll-to-roll manufacturing will (at last) play a role in CIGS manufacturing, the
majority of the large volumes based on this process technology will come later in the reporting
period, and will not be beyond 50 percent.

To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at sales@nanomarket.net or
via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us at www.nanomarkets.net.


CIGS Photovoltaics Markets-2012

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