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Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes                                                                                                                     Page 1 of 8



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                                  Kenneth Rapoza
                                  BRIC BREAKER
                                       MY PROFILE   MY HEADLINE GRABS    MY RSS FEED




   Jan.   24 2012 — 1:46 pm |   0 comments


   As Vodafone Cashes In, India Gov’t
   Wrestles With The Tax Law
   To India’s political class, the Indian Supreme Court’s ruling in favor of a
   billion dollar tax windfall for UK telecom Vodafone was a lot like ripping
                                                                                                        MY ACTIVITY FEED
   a band-aid off a hairy arm. So painful was the sting of the case that
   India’s divisive and warring political parties finally agree on something: it                        Show all activity

   hurts. Tax laws have to be changed, or more multinational deals will get                                 KENNETH'S NEW POST                      1 hour ago

   done without a dime being paid to the Indian government. The fact that                                   As Vodafone Cashes In, India
   the $2.2 billion victor is a British multinational adds insult to injury.                                Gov't Wrestles With The Tax Law
   India’s never really been forgiven for kicking the British Empire out in
                                                                                                            KENNETH COMMENTED                      3 hours ago
   1947. Vodafone’s success was a high-five, the slap heard around the                                      “I have to say that although I did not live in
   world.                                                                                                   MA when Romney ran the state as governor
                                                                                                            (was...”
   India’s Supreme Court also ordered the government to refund the                                          Posted to THE ONE SUCCESS STORY ROMNEY CAN'T
                                                                                                            DISCUSS
   company $500 million in taxes. Plus 4% interest on top of that.
                                                                                                            KENNETH COMMENTED                      3 hours ago

   “This is a hot potato politically in India,” said Shan Nair, co-founder of                               “All true. But life is so not black and white
   Nair & Company, a consulting firm helping international businesses                                       and you know that Joshen. Just as many
                                                                                                            Americans are...”
   incorporate overseas. “Eventually the law is going to change, probably
                                                                                                            Posted to OVER A MILLION PEOPLE SIGN PETITION
   within six months in my guess, and it is going to affect all foreign                                     AGAINST BRAZIL'S 'PANDORA DAM'

   companies that have more than 50% of their assets in India. If that is                                   KENNETH CALLED OUT                     3 hours ago
   you, and you sell the company, you will have to pay a capital gains tax on                                       securityaffairs
   it. That’s not the case now, at least how the Supreme Court interpreted it.
                                                                                                            Commented on EU OIL EMBARGO ON IRAN SEEN
   It’s a big problem because you have Indian multinationals setting up                                     HAVING 'MINIMAL' IMPACT ON OIL MARKETS

   shop off shore in Mauritius in Africa and claiming that a foreign group                                  “I share the decision, but le me remind you
                                                                                                            that unfortunately the money folds all logic,
   owns them, even though the bulk of the work and the management is all                                    while we decide for...”
   based in India.”
                                                                                                            CONTRIBUTOR COMMENT                      Yesterday
   Mauritius is a favored off-shore country for India corporates and
   investment firms looking to avoid some of the country’s high taxes.




http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/                                                                                                                          1/24/2012
Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes                                                                                         Page 2 of 8



   Ultimately, the Supreme Court ruled that the Indian tax authorities have     ABOUT ME
   no jurisdiction to tax Vodafone’s $11.2 billion acquisition of Indian        I covered Brazil pre-Lula and post-Lula and spent the
                                                                                last five years covering all aspects of the country for
   cellphone company Hutchison Essar from Hong Kong based Hutchison             Dow Jones, Wall Street Journal and Barron's.
   Whampoa because it was structured as a transaction between two foreign       Meanwhile, for an undetermined amount of time, and
   entities. The government argued that Vodafone, through Whampoa, had          with a little help from my friends, I will be
                                                                                parachuting into Russia, India and China. (I figure if
   acquired 67% in Essar and should pay taxes on the deal.                      Anderson Cooper can parachute, I can parachute.)
                                                                                See my profile »
   The Vodafone battle was being watched closely by multinationals
   concerned that India’s top officials could bribe Supreme Court judges to
                                                                                Followers:            116
   see things there way, adding to the general uncertainty of doing business    Contributor Since:    March 2011
   in the country. “This ruling sends a positive signal to foreign companies    Location:             New York, NY
   that India is open for business and its top court is incorruptible,” said
   Nair.                                                                           MY PROFILE                  MY RSS FEED

                                                                                   MY HEADLINE GRABS           EMAIL ME TIPS
   The outcome bodes well for U.S. firms like AT&T (T) and General Electric
   (GE), which are threatened with similar taxes on transactions. Their
   window on escaping that tax loophole, however, is closing as ruling and
   opposition parties hammer out new regulations to protect its tax
   collecting powers. Foreign investors and even domestic firms appear
   genuinely delighted that the court has taken what they see as a fair legal   WHAT I'M UP TO
   decision rather than blindly siding with the government. Other countries      About BRIC Breaker
   have tried to tax the sale and purchase of assets in foreign M&A deals        BRIC Breaker covers the big emerging markets of
                                                                                 Brazil, Russia, India and China. The focus is on
   controlled by offshore entities.                                              politics, corporate and investment news, thoughts
                                                                                 from senior level money managers and analysts,
   The verdict is clearly great news for Vodafone, which had to set aside $5     equity and fixed income investment ideas from
                                                                                 mutual fund managers, and some celebrity and
   billion in case the court ruled against them.                                 culture if relevant to the news cycle. The page is
                                                                                 updated throughout the day, five to seven days a
   Vodafone Highlights from Nair & Co.                                           week.




     • The deal with Whampoa
       and Essar was struck in
       2007 and structured
       between Vodafone’s
       Dutch subsidiary and a
       Cayman Islands-based
       company that held
       Hutchison Whampoa’s          Image via Wikipedia
       India assets.
     • India’s Supreme Court ruled that the deal is not subject to capital
       gains tax because the company was not domiciled in India. That
       means Vodafone had no reason to withhold tax and was thus
       repaid under court order. The government was unable to convince
       the court of the fact that the main asset being sold in the
       transaction was based in India.
     • The court said that the offshore transaction is a “bona fide”            Economic Growth From Coal www.americaspower.org
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       structure and the fact that the selling party’s Cayman Islands unit      lowers costs.
       was in place for many years before the deal implied that the deal
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       structure wasn’t created just with the purpose of avoiding taxes.        Free Special Report on 5 hot Dividend Stocks You
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     • The verdict provides clarity for other foreign direct investors
       whose deals have similar structures to Vodafone and is a major           Best Rehab in California malibuhorizon.com/Best_CA_Rehab
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     • Some of the deals that are facing similar disputes include – Idea        Learn to Invest Right!
       Cellular-AT&T; GE-Genpact; Mitsui-Vedanta; SABmiller-Fosters
       and Sanofi-aventis-Shantha Biotech. British firm Cairn Energy has
       already agreed to pay taxes in India as well as the UK on selling its
       stake in Cairn India to Vedanta Resources. Depending upon the




http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/                                                                                               1/24/2012
Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes                                                                Page 3 of 8



           size of the stake sale, the tax liability could range between $850
           million to over $1 billion.




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    BUSINESS           LAW




   Jan.   23 2012 — 7:06 pm |   4 comments


   The One Success Story Romney Can’t
   Discuss
   Politics is not without its
   bitter ironies, but none is
   greater in this presidential
   election campaign than the
   one plaguing Mitt Romney.
   Talk about a dilemma. The
   man’s biggest success story in
   his political career is the one
   story his party’s voters don’t
   want to hear.

   On April 12, 2006, Mitt
   Romney passed the
   Massachusetts version of
   what would later become
   known as the dreaded
   “ObamaCare”. It will go down Image via Wikipedia
   as his crowning achievement
   as the state’s one-term Republican governor. For all he might say on the
   campaign trail, some of it true, the rest pandering to a base of anti-
   Obama, anti-government Republicans, Mitt Romney is mighty proud of
   signing Massachusetts Healthcare Reform into law on that day. Or at
   least he was. So much so, in fact, that he ordered the signing of that bill
   carved into stone in the Massachusetts State House tradition. Inside the
   golden domed State House on Beacon Hill is an oil painting of Romney
   with a copy of a bill decorated in a medical symbol beside a portrait of his
   wife Ann.

   “Each governor gets an outgoing portrait of himself to hang in the State
   House and he chose to have an image of a notebook with a medical
   symbol on it to immortalize that policy. It was his biggest
   accomplishment,” says Sarah Iselin, president of the Blue Cross
   Foundation of Massachusetts, a non-profit organization dedicated to
   healthcare and part of the Blue Cross Blue Shield insurance company.

   Ever since the days of Bill Clinton, Democrats have been trying to get
   universal healthcare coverage for all Americans. Hillary Clinton tried it
   and failed in the 90s. On a national level, Republicans have always been
   against it despite the fact that Americans actually like the idea of




http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/                                                                     1/24/2012
Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes                                                                 Page 4 of 8



   affordable, universal health insurance by a margin of 2-to-1, according to
   an ABC News/Washington Post poll.

   President Barack Obama, when he was running for the presidency in
   2008, promised some form of universal health insurance during his
   tenure. He modeled much of the Affordable Care Act on Massachusetts
   Healthcare Reform. Republicans hated it, gave it a media friendly
   nickname, ObamaCare, and told everyone that Obama was coming after
   their aging momma.

   Now, in the election campaign of 2012, with ObamaCare’s future still
   unknown as Republican challengers vow to overturn it if elected,
   everyone is going after Romney. Herein lies the Republican who made
   possible ObamaCare — the president’s most controversial policy, at least
   by media standards.

   “I have been around politicians for a long time and I can say that the fact
   Romney cannot talk about the biggest policy success in Massachusetts in
   the last 25 years has to be one of the biggest ironies I’ve seen in a while,”
   says Michael Widmer, president of the non-partisan Massachusetts
   Taxpayer Foundation.

   Three years after Massachusetts enacted its groundbreaking health care
   reform law, Chapter 58 of the Acts of 2006, the number of residents with
   health insurance has increased by more than 432,000, roughly the
   population of Boston, giving the state the lowest rate of uninsured
   residents in the country.

   An analysis by the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation in 2009 showed
   that the cost of this achievement has been relatively modest and well
   within early projections of how much the state would have to spend to
   implement reform. In short, universal care, mandates and fees on
   business to help pay for it has not made companies close shop, or caused
   residents to buy into a program they cannot really afford. In terms of
   government expenditure, based on actual and projected spending data
   for the first four years of health care reform, the Foundation concluded
   that state budget spending on health reform has grown from a base of
   $1.04 billion in fiscal year 2006 to a projected $1.75 billion in fiscal year
   2010, a gross increase of $707 million. After the federal government
   reimburses part of that for its portion of Medicaid costs in the plan, the
   total comes down to around $353 million for the state. For some people,
   that’s a kick in the bucket for the common good.

   “We are doing another study on this right now and it looks like the state
   pays maybe $100 million a year out of its budget to keep universal
   coverage,” said Widmer. “I’d say that’s not a big problem for a
   government with a $30 billion budget.”


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    BUSINESS           PHARMA AND HEALTH              WASHINGTON




   Jan.   23 2012 — 3:04 pm |   0 comments


   For China, It’s Slowdown Shmoedown
   China’s economy is no longer humming along at the double digit rate it
   once was, and could conceivably sputter along in the high-7′s and 8%
   range in 2012. But if commodity demand is any indicator, the China




http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/                                                                      1/24/2012
Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes                                             Page 5 of 8



   dragon is still hungry for raw
   materials. The Chinese economy
   isn’t done growing just yet.

   While China’s economy is
   undeniably slowing, this is one
   kind of slowdown the global
   economy needs. For the most
   part, the country is importing
   more commodities than it did in
   2010, but in percentage terms
   volume growth is not as big as it
   was when comparing 2010
   imports to 2009 imports.

   Nevertheless, China’s December trade data showed solid commodity
   demand above and beyond what markets had been expecting, Barclays
   Capital said in a report on Monday. Demand for commodities across the
   board was 8.7% higher.

   In base metals, copper imports actually set a new record of 406,937
   metric tons.

   “While we believe the strength of imports into the end of 2011 was driven
   by consumer demand following the end of destocking, we also believe a
   portion of these imports went into trader and exchange stockbuilding.
   Chinese copper imports fell over 2011 as whole, but it was a year of two
   halves: a weak first half due to destocking but a strong rebound in the
   second half due to a recovery in
   buying and attractive lower prices,” Barclays analysts wrote in a report
   for clients on Monday titled “Feeding the Dragon.”

   December trade data for precious metals showed a continuation of recent
   trends. Silver and platinum imports declined, while palladium imports
   continued to rise, tracking China’s underlying auto market trends.

   On the energy side of commodities, crude oil imports broke a record last
   month, too. China imported 5.067 million barrels of oil a day in 2011. Oil
   demand also averaged a record high of 9.231 million barrels a day, up
   6.4% from 2010.

   All in all, despite a relatively weak year for China, with credit constraints
   and inflationary pressures, China’s underlying demand provides a strong
   support to commodities this year. Barclays analysts said that they were
   maintaining their view that should global growth surprise to the upside
   by a small extent, credit conditions improve and China decides to start
   buying more commodities to restock– for which signs are emerging
   already – Chinese oil demand can be key source of upside surprise
   relative to consensus estimates this year.

   China demand for commodities remains robust, but not as robust as the
   year before when compared to the previous 12 months. China’s
   government is still managing to hold onto a soft landing of the economy,
   as fixed investment slows, the housing market corrects significantly, and
   the country’s biggest trading partners in Europe head for a recession.

   China Energy Commodity Trade Data

   Crude Oil Imports (000 b/d)
   2011: 60,800
   2010: 57,667




http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/                                                  1/24/2012
Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes                                                                          Page 6 of 8



   Coal Imports (000 tons)
   2011: 182,395
   2010: 164,833

   LNG Imports (tons)
   2011: 12,212,646
   2010: 9,355,842


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    COMMODITIES CURRENCIES                   INVESTING




   Jan.   23 2012 — 2:11 pm |   2 comments


   EU Oil Embargo On Iran Seen Having
   ‘Minimal’ Impact On Oil Markets
   The European Union agreed
   to an unsurprising Iranian oil
   embargo Monday. The impact
   on the energy market will
   likely be “minimal,” says
   Richard Soultanian, director
   of energy consulting firm NUS
   Consulting in Park Ridge,
   New Jersey.
                                                       EU slaps embargo on Iranian oil. Impact on oil markets
                                                       minimal, energy consulant forecasts.



   Soultanian said last week that an EU embargo would be handed down on
   Monday, following similar sanctions from Washington. The Obama
   Administration applying the pressure on Asian countries now, the main
   recipients of Iranian crude outside of Europe. Results so far have been
   mixed.

   U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner tried convincing the Chinese
   government this month to follow Washington’s lead, but Beijing said that
   it will continue to import Iranian oil. India said the same thing, adding
   that it will only fall in line with Obama if the United Nations issues the
   embargo, too.

   Moreover, the biggest importers of Iranian oil in Europe are Greece, Italy
   and Spain, all borderline bankrupt. The embargo will likely give those
   countries leverage to lock in cheaper rates for Iranian oil over the next six
   months before they have to look elsewhere, if the embargo remains in
   effect.

   “The implementation of the sanctions has gotten off to a mixed start,”
   Soultanian says. “The likely impact to Iran and the oil markets will be
   minimal. At present it appears that the most likely consequence of (the)
   sanctions is the provision of additional leverage to Iran’s customers to
   negotiate deeper discounts in order to continue the relationship,” he said.

   Iran produces approximately four million barrels of oil per day and
   exports a little more than half of that production, primarily to China,
   Europe, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey. Japan said it will reduce
   its Iranian oil imports, but will not ban them altogether because the
   country is still rebuilding from last year’s natural disasters. Looking




http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/                                                                               1/24/2012
Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes                                                                Page 7 of 8



   elsewhere for oil, possibly at higher prices, could impede the country’s
   recovery.

   Meanwhile, Turkey and South Korea have not formulated any official
   position at this time.

   All of the 27 European Union member states agreed to the sanctions on
   Monday morning after two failed meetings between EU ambassadors last
   week. In addition to the oil embargo, European governments also agreed
   to freeze assets of the Iranian central bank abroad in an effort to starve
   the Iranian government of funds for its nuclear program. Brussels and
   Washington both agree that Iran will eventually use its nuclear
   capabilities to build weaponry.

   “The Iranian programs are proceeding apace and represent a strategic
   threat,” an unnamed EU diplomat was quoted saying in The Guardian on
   Monday. “The aim is to have a big impact on the Iranian financial system,
   targeting the economic lifeline of the regime.”

   See: Turkey Eyes Saudi Oil Amid Iran Sanctions–Today’s Zaman

   South Korea Seeking Exemption From Iran Oil Embargo–
   Agence France Presse

   EU To Embargo Iranian Crude As Tensions Mount–Fox Business
   News



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    BUSINESS            ENERGY




   Jan.   23 2012 — 1:29 pm |   0 comments


   Top Value Picks In The BRICs For Week Of
   Jan. 23
   Emerging markets remain a
   very hard sell for retail and
   institutional investors as 2012
   is now underway. Sales teams
   have their work cut out for
   them in trying to convince
   investors to build positions in
   equities. Last week, HSBC
   Chief Strategist Philip Poole
   told clients that there was
   some steep value in some of      The weekly ValuEngine/BRIC Breaker Picks in the
                                    BRICs returns this week after a brief hiatus. Petrobras
   the big emerging markets.        is off the list. Vale is on it. And Baidu is still a buy.

   That makes for good buying
   opportunities for investors with horizons longer than a year, and willing
   to give up 20% or more in losses. The MSCI Emerging Markets index
   exchange traded fund (EEM) lost over 20% last year. This year it’s up
   over 9%.

   Risk assets continue to be a roller coaster ride. For those who meet the
   height requirements, the stock forecasters at ValuEngine have 15 ADRs of
   BRIC companies that — according their methodology — are priced to




http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/                                                                     1/24/2012
Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes                                                        Page 8 of 8



   perfection. That includes long time Forbes BRIC Breaker/ValuEngine
   pick Ambe (ABV), Brazil’s top beverage company. But new to the list is
   Brazilian mining major Vale (VALE), trading at a steep discount of under
   6x. Meanwhile, China’s highly volatile solar panel makers are looking
   cheap, though maybe for good reason, and China’s main search engine,
   Baidu (BIDU), is still a buy. Here’s the rest of the list, along with current
   price to earnings ratios based on trailing 12 month earnings.

   Company                            Country Rating* P/E
   Ambev (ABV)                       Brazil    4     24.67x
   Baidu (BIDU)                       China      4    47.98x
   BrasilFoods (BRFS)                  Brazil    4     19.25x
   China Mobile (CHL)                 China     4     10.32x
   CTrip.com (CTRP)                   China     4    23.53x
   Cosan Ltda. (CZZ)                  Brazil     5     4.47x
   Eletrobras (EBR)                   Brazil     5     5.36x
   Infosys (INFY)                     India      4     18.21x
   LDK Solar (LDK)                    China      5      7.17x
   Mechel (MTL)                       Russia     5      7.01x
   Renesola (SOL)                     China     4      2.12x
   Suntech Power (STP)               China    4      41.30x
   Tata Motors (TTM)                 India      5      10.75x
   Vale (VALE)                       Brazil   4       5.35x
   Telefonica Brasil (VIV)           Brazil   4      16.54x
   Wipro Ltd (WIT)                    India    4       24.63x

   *A rating of four indicates a buy. Five is a strong buy. Although
   ValuEngine’s buy list for the BRICs is much larger, the BRIC Breaker
   blog only considers high volume stocks trading at least 600,000 shares
   a day. Price to earnings ratio is based on trailing 12 month earnings.


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    INTERNATIONAL        INVESTING       STOCKS




         See Older Posts




http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/                                                             1/24/2012

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As Vodafone Cashes In, India Gov't Wrestles With The Tax Law

  • 1. Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes Page 1 of 8 • Business ◦ Autos ◦ Energy ◦ Logistics & Transportation ◦ Media & Entertainment ◦ Pharma & Healthcare ◦ Retail ◦ SportsMoney ◦ Strategies & Solutions ◦ Wall Street ◦ Washington hours ago 6 hours ago Romney's Tax Returns are Remarkably... The Secret to Getting into Harvard Business Unremarkable School KELLY PHILLIPS ERB Taxgirl DAN SCHAWBEL Personal Branding Kenneth Rapoza BRIC BREAKER MY PROFILE MY HEADLINE GRABS MY RSS FEED Jan. 24 2012 — 1:46 pm | 0 comments As Vodafone Cashes In, India Gov’t Wrestles With The Tax Law To India’s political class, the Indian Supreme Court’s ruling in favor of a billion dollar tax windfall for UK telecom Vodafone was a lot like ripping MY ACTIVITY FEED a band-aid off a hairy arm. So painful was the sting of the case that India’s divisive and warring political parties finally agree on something: it Show all activity hurts. Tax laws have to be changed, or more multinational deals will get KENNETH'S NEW POST 1 hour ago done without a dime being paid to the Indian government. The fact that As Vodafone Cashes In, India the $2.2 billion victor is a British multinational adds insult to injury. Gov't Wrestles With The Tax Law India’s never really been forgiven for kicking the British Empire out in KENNETH COMMENTED 3 hours ago 1947. Vodafone’s success was a high-five, the slap heard around the “I have to say that although I did not live in world. MA when Romney ran the state as governor (was...” India’s Supreme Court also ordered the government to refund the Posted to THE ONE SUCCESS STORY ROMNEY CAN'T DISCUSS company $500 million in taxes. Plus 4% interest on top of that. KENNETH COMMENTED 3 hours ago “This is a hot potato politically in India,” said Shan Nair, co-founder of “All true. But life is so not black and white Nair & Company, a consulting firm helping international businesses and you know that Joshen. Just as many Americans are...” incorporate overseas. “Eventually the law is going to change, probably Posted to OVER A MILLION PEOPLE SIGN PETITION within six months in my guess, and it is going to affect all foreign AGAINST BRAZIL'S 'PANDORA DAM' companies that have more than 50% of their assets in India. If that is KENNETH CALLED OUT 3 hours ago you, and you sell the company, you will have to pay a capital gains tax on securityaffairs it. That’s not the case now, at least how the Supreme Court interpreted it. Commented on EU OIL EMBARGO ON IRAN SEEN It’s a big problem because you have Indian multinationals setting up HAVING 'MINIMAL' IMPACT ON OIL MARKETS shop off shore in Mauritius in Africa and claiming that a foreign group “I share the decision, but le me remind you that unfortunately the money folds all logic, owns them, even though the bulk of the work and the management is all while we decide for...” based in India.” CONTRIBUTOR COMMENT Yesterday Mauritius is a favored off-shore country for India corporates and investment firms looking to avoid some of the country’s high taxes. http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/ 1/24/2012
  • 2. Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes Page 2 of 8 Ultimately, the Supreme Court ruled that the Indian tax authorities have ABOUT ME no jurisdiction to tax Vodafone’s $11.2 billion acquisition of Indian I covered Brazil pre-Lula and post-Lula and spent the last five years covering all aspects of the country for cellphone company Hutchison Essar from Hong Kong based Hutchison Dow Jones, Wall Street Journal and Barron's. Whampoa because it was structured as a transaction between two foreign Meanwhile, for an undetermined amount of time, and entities. The government argued that Vodafone, through Whampoa, had with a little help from my friends, I will be parachuting into Russia, India and China. (I figure if acquired 67% in Essar and should pay taxes on the deal. Anderson Cooper can parachute, I can parachute.) See my profile » The Vodafone battle was being watched closely by multinationals concerned that India’s top officials could bribe Supreme Court judges to Followers: 116 see things there way, adding to the general uncertainty of doing business Contributor Since: March 2011 in the country. “This ruling sends a positive signal to foreign companies Location: New York, NY that India is open for business and its top court is incorruptible,” said Nair. MY PROFILE MY RSS FEED MY HEADLINE GRABS EMAIL ME TIPS The outcome bodes well for U.S. firms like AT&T (T) and General Electric (GE), which are threatened with similar taxes on transactions. Their window on escaping that tax loophole, however, is closing as ruling and opposition parties hammer out new regulations to protect its tax collecting powers. Foreign investors and even domestic firms appear genuinely delighted that the court has taken what they see as a fair legal WHAT I'M UP TO decision rather than blindly siding with the government. Other countries About BRIC Breaker have tried to tax the sale and purchase of assets in foreign M&A deals BRIC Breaker covers the big emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The focus is on controlled by offshore entities. politics, corporate and investment news, thoughts from senior level money managers and analysts, The verdict is clearly great news for Vodafone, which had to set aside $5 equity and fixed income investment ideas from mutual fund managers, and some celebrity and billion in case the court ruled against them. culture if relevant to the news cycle. The page is updated throughout the day, five to seven days a Vodafone Highlights from Nair & Co. week. • The deal with Whampoa and Essar was struck in 2007 and structured between Vodafone’s Dutch subsidiary and a Cayman Islands-based company that held Hutchison Whampoa’s Image via Wikipedia India assets. • India’s Supreme Court ruled that the deal is not subject to capital gains tax because the company was not domiciled in India. That means Vodafone had no reason to withhold tax and was thus repaid under court order. The government was unable to convince the court of the fact that the main asset being sold in the transaction was based in India. • The court said that the offshore transaction is a “bona fide” Economic Growth From Coal www.americaspower.org Discover how coal helps American families, jobs & structure and the fact that the selling party’s Cayman Islands unit lowers costs. was in place for many years before the deal implied that the deal 5 Dividend Stock Picks www.Fabian.com structure wasn’t created just with the purpose of avoiding taxes. Free Special Report on 5 hot Dividend Stocks You Should Own Now! • The verdict provides clarity for other foreign direct investors whose deals have similar structures to Vodafone and is a major Best Rehab in California malibuhorizon.com/Best_CA_Rehab CA Alcohol Drug Treatment Center Private Rehab boost for companies that are facing similar demands from India’s Center in California tax department. High Yielding Stock Picks Fool.com 13 Dividend Paying Stocks from The Motley Fool. • Some of the deals that are facing similar disputes include – Idea Learn to Invest Right! Cellular-AT&T; GE-Genpact; Mitsui-Vedanta; SABmiller-Fosters and Sanofi-aventis-Shantha Biotech. British firm Cairn Energy has already agreed to pay taxes in India as well as the UK on selling its stake in Cairn India to Vedanta Resources. Depending upon the http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/ 1/24/2012
  • 3. Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes Page 3 of 8 size of the stake sale, the tax liability could range between $850 million to over $1 billion. Buzz Up! Reddit StumbleUpon Facebook Twitter Email this Be the first to comment » Get the full story: BUSINESS LAW Jan. 23 2012 — 7:06 pm | 4 comments The One Success Story Romney Can’t Discuss Politics is not without its bitter ironies, but none is greater in this presidential election campaign than the one plaguing Mitt Romney. Talk about a dilemma. The man’s biggest success story in his political career is the one story his party’s voters don’t want to hear. On April 12, 2006, Mitt Romney passed the Massachusetts version of what would later become known as the dreaded “ObamaCare”. It will go down Image via Wikipedia as his crowning achievement as the state’s one-term Republican governor. For all he might say on the campaign trail, some of it true, the rest pandering to a base of anti- Obama, anti-government Republicans, Mitt Romney is mighty proud of signing Massachusetts Healthcare Reform into law on that day. Or at least he was. So much so, in fact, that he ordered the signing of that bill carved into stone in the Massachusetts State House tradition. Inside the golden domed State House on Beacon Hill is an oil painting of Romney with a copy of a bill decorated in a medical symbol beside a portrait of his wife Ann. “Each governor gets an outgoing portrait of himself to hang in the State House and he chose to have an image of a notebook with a medical symbol on it to immortalize that policy. It was his biggest accomplishment,” says Sarah Iselin, president of the Blue Cross Foundation of Massachusetts, a non-profit organization dedicated to healthcare and part of the Blue Cross Blue Shield insurance company. Ever since the days of Bill Clinton, Democrats have been trying to get universal healthcare coverage for all Americans. Hillary Clinton tried it and failed in the 90s. On a national level, Republicans have always been against it despite the fact that Americans actually like the idea of http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/ 1/24/2012
  • 4. Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes Page 4 of 8 affordable, universal health insurance by a margin of 2-to-1, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. President Barack Obama, when he was running for the presidency in 2008, promised some form of universal health insurance during his tenure. He modeled much of the Affordable Care Act on Massachusetts Healthcare Reform. Republicans hated it, gave it a media friendly nickname, ObamaCare, and told everyone that Obama was coming after their aging momma. Now, in the election campaign of 2012, with ObamaCare’s future still unknown as Republican challengers vow to overturn it if elected, everyone is going after Romney. Herein lies the Republican who made possible ObamaCare — the president’s most controversial policy, at least by media standards. “I have been around politicians for a long time and I can say that the fact Romney cannot talk about the biggest policy success in Massachusetts in the last 25 years has to be one of the biggest ironies I’ve seen in a while,” says Michael Widmer, president of the non-partisan Massachusetts Taxpayer Foundation. Three years after Massachusetts enacted its groundbreaking health care reform law, Chapter 58 of the Acts of 2006, the number of residents with health insurance has increased by more than 432,000, roughly the population of Boston, giving the state the lowest rate of uninsured residents in the country. An analysis by the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation in 2009 showed that the cost of this achievement has been relatively modest and well within early projections of how much the state would have to spend to implement reform. In short, universal care, mandates and fees on business to help pay for it has not made companies close shop, or caused residents to buy into a program they cannot really afford. In terms of government expenditure, based on actual and projected spending data for the first four years of health care reform, the Foundation concluded that state budget spending on health reform has grown from a base of $1.04 billion in fiscal year 2006 to a projected $1.75 billion in fiscal year 2010, a gross increase of $707 million. After the federal government reimburses part of that for its portion of Medicaid costs in the plan, the total comes down to around $353 million for the state. For some people, that’s a kick in the bucket for the common good. “We are doing another study on this right now and it looks like the state pays maybe $100 million a year out of its budget to keep universal coverage,” said Widmer. “I’d say that’s not a big problem for a government with a $30 billion budget.” Buzz Up! Reddit StumbleUpon Facebook Twitter Email this 4 Total Comments. Get the full story: BUSINESS PHARMA AND HEALTH WASHINGTON Jan. 23 2012 — 3:04 pm | 0 comments For China, It’s Slowdown Shmoedown China’s economy is no longer humming along at the double digit rate it once was, and could conceivably sputter along in the high-7′s and 8% range in 2012. But if commodity demand is any indicator, the China http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/ 1/24/2012
  • 5. Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes Page 5 of 8 dragon is still hungry for raw materials. The Chinese economy isn’t done growing just yet. While China’s economy is undeniably slowing, this is one kind of slowdown the global economy needs. For the most part, the country is importing more commodities than it did in 2010, but in percentage terms volume growth is not as big as it was when comparing 2010 imports to 2009 imports. Nevertheless, China’s December trade data showed solid commodity demand above and beyond what markets had been expecting, Barclays Capital said in a report on Monday. Demand for commodities across the board was 8.7% higher. In base metals, copper imports actually set a new record of 406,937 metric tons. “While we believe the strength of imports into the end of 2011 was driven by consumer demand following the end of destocking, we also believe a portion of these imports went into trader and exchange stockbuilding. Chinese copper imports fell over 2011 as whole, but it was a year of two halves: a weak first half due to destocking but a strong rebound in the second half due to a recovery in buying and attractive lower prices,” Barclays analysts wrote in a report for clients on Monday titled “Feeding the Dragon.” December trade data for precious metals showed a continuation of recent trends. Silver and platinum imports declined, while palladium imports continued to rise, tracking China’s underlying auto market trends. On the energy side of commodities, crude oil imports broke a record last month, too. China imported 5.067 million barrels of oil a day in 2011. Oil demand also averaged a record high of 9.231 million barrels a day, up 6.4% from 2010. All in all, despite a relatively weak year for China, with credit constraints and inflationary pressures, China’s underlying demand provides a strong support to commodities this year. Barclays analysts said that they were maintaining their view that should global growth surprise to the upside by a small extent, credit conditions improve and China decides to start buying more commodities to restock– for which signs are emerging already – Chinese oil demand can be key source of upside surprise relative to consensus estimates this year. China demand for commodities remains robust, but not as robust as the year before when compared to the previous 12 months. China’s government is still managing to hold onto a soft landing of the economy, as fixed investment slows, the housing market corrects significantly, and the country’s biggest trading partners in Europe head for a recession. China Energy Commodity Trade Data Crude Oil Imports (000 b/d) 2011: 60,800 2010: 57,667 http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/ 1/24/2012
  • 6. Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes Page 6 of 8 Coal Imports (000 tons) 2011: 182,395 2010: 164,833 LNG Imports (tons) 2011: 12,212,646 2010: 9,355,842 Buzz Up! Reddit StumbleUpon Facebook Twitter Email this Be the first to comment » Get the full story: COMMODITIES CURRENCIES INVESTING Jan. 23 2012 — 2:11 pm | 2 comments EU Oil Embargo On Iran Seen Having ‘Minimal’ Impact On Oil Markets The European Union agreed to an unsurprising Iranian oil embargo Monday. The impact on the energy market will likely be “minimal,” says Richard Soultanian, director of energy consulting firm NUS Consulting in Park Ridge, New Jersey. EU slaps embargo on Iranian oil. Impact on oil markets minimal, energy consulant forecasts. Soultanian said last week that an EU embargo would be handed down on Monday, following similar sanctions from Washington. The Obama Administration applying the pressure on Asian countries now, the main recipients of Iranian crude outside of Europe. Results so far have been mixed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner tried convincing the Chinese government this month to follow Washington’s lead, but Beijing said that it will continue to import Iranian oil. India said the same thing, adding that it will only fall in line with Obama if the United Nations issues the embargo, too. Moreover, the biggest importers of Iranian oil in Europe are Greece, Italy and Spain, all borderline bankrupt. The embargo will likely give those countries leverage to lock in cheaper rates for Iranian oil over the next six months before they have to look elsewhere, if the embargo remains in effect. “The implementation of the sanctions has gotten off to a mixed start,” Soultanian says. “The likely impact to Iran and the oil markets will be minimal. At present it appears that the most likely consequence of (the) sanctions is the provision of additional leverage to Iran’s customers to negotiate deeper discounts in order to continue the relationship,” he said. Iran produces approximately four million barrels of oil per day and exports a little more than half of that production, primarily to China, Europe, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey. Japan said it will reduce its Iranian oil imports, but will not ban them altogether because the country is still rebuilding from last year’s natural disasters. Looking http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/ 1/24/2012
  • 7. Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes Page 7 of 8 elsewhere for oil, possibly at higher prices, could impede the country’s recovery. Meanwhile, Turkey and South Korea have not formulated any official position at this time. All of the 27 European Union member states agreed to the sanctions on Monday morning after two failed meetings between EU ambassadors last week. In addition to the oil embargo, European governments also agreed to freeze assets of the Iranian central bank abroad in an effort to starve the Iranian government of funds for its nuclear program. Brussels and Washington both agree that Iran will eventually use its nuclear capabilities to build weaponry. “The Iranian programs are proceeding apace and represent a strategic threat,” an unnamed EU diplomat was quoted saying in The Guardian on Monday. “The aim is to have a big impact on the Iranian financial system, targeting the economic lifeline of the regime.” See: Turkey Eyes Saudi Oil Amid Iran Sanctions–Today’s Zaman South Korea Seeking Exemption From Iran Oil Embargo– Agence France Presse EU To Embargo Iranian Crude As Tensions Mount–Fox Business News Buzz Up! Reddit StumbleUpon Facebook Twitter Email this 2 Called-out Comments, 2 Total Comments. Get the full story: BUSINESS ENERGY Jan. 23 2012 — 1:29 pm | 0 comments Top Value Picks In The BRICs For Week Of Jan. 23 Emerging markets remain a very hard sell for retail and institutional investors as 2012 is now underway. Sales teams have their work cut out for them in trying to convince investors to build positions in equities. Last week, HSBC Chief Strategist Philip Poole told clients that there was some steep value in some of The weekly ValuEngine/BRIC Breaker Picks in the BRICs returns this week after a brief hiatus. Petrobras the big emerging markets. is off the list. Vale is on it. And Baidu is still a buy. That makes for good buying opportunities for investors with horizons longer than a year, and willing to give up 20% or more in losses. The MSCI Emerging Markets index exchange traded fund (EEM) lost over 20% last year. This year it’s up over 9%. Risk assets continue to be a roller coaster ride. For those who meet the height requirements, the stock forecasters at ValuEngine have 15 ADRs of BRIC companies that — according their methodology — are priced to http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/ 1/24/2012
  • 8. Kenneth Rapoza - BRIC Breaker - Forbes Page 8 of 8 perfection. That includes long time Forbes BRIC Breaker/ValuEngine pick Ambe (ABV), Brazil’s top beverage company. But new to the list is Brazilian mining major Vale (VALE), trading at a steep discount of under 6x. Meanwhile, China’s highly volatile solar panel makers are looking cheap, though maybe for good reason, and China’s main search engine, Baidu (BIDU), is still a buy. Here’s the rest of the list, along with current price to earnings ratios based on trailing 12 month earnings. Company Country Rating* P/E Ambev (ABV) Brazil 4 24.67x Baidu (BIDU) China 4 47.98x BrasilFoods (BRFS) Brazil 4 19.25x China Mobile (CHL) China 4 10.32x CTrip.com (CTRP) China 4 23.53x Cosan Ltda. (CZZ) Brazil 5 4.47x Eletrobras (EBR) Brazil 5 5.36x Infosys (INFY) India 4 18.21x LDK Solar (LDK) China 5 7.17x Mechel (MTL) Russia 5 7.01x Renesola (SOL) China 4 2.12x Suntech Power (STP) China 4 41.30x Tata Motors (TTM) India 5 10.75x Vale (VALE) Brazil 4 5.35x Telefonica Brasil (VIV) Brazil 4 16.54x Wipro Ltd (WIT) India 4 24.63x *A rating of four indicates a buy. Five is a strong buy. Although ValuEngine’s buy list for the BRICs is much larger, the BRIC Breaker blog only considers high volume stocks trading at least 600,000 shares a day. Price to earnings ratio is based on trailing 12 month earnings. Buzz Up! Reddit StumbleUpon Facebook Twitter Email this Be the first to comment » Get the full story: INTERNATIONAL INVESTING STOCKS See Older Posts http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/ 1/24/2012