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Creating Value Through Fuel Price Risk Management 2009 NYPTA Fall Conference Linwood Capital, LLC 4316 Eton Place Edina, Minnesota  55424 Telephone:  952.285.1134 Facsimile:  952.285.1135 E-mail:  [email_address] Website:  www.linwoodcapital.com
Energy Price Risk Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Energy Price Risk Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Energy Price Risk Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Energy Price Risk Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Energy Price Risk Management No Hedging Wide Range of Expected Cost Maximum Risk Exposure High Budget Risk Forecasted prices assume heating oil futures prices and heating oil implied option volatility on 8/31/09 Forecasted prices assume that costs will be equivalent to HO futures + 14.12 cents per gallon Upper and lower limits represent plus and minus one standard deviation of expected price movement as implied by heating oil options pricing
Energy Price Risk Management Hedging Narrower Range of Expected Cost Managed Risk Exposure More Certain Future Costs Forecasted prices assume heating oil futures prices and heating oil implied option volatility on 8/31/09 Forecasted prices assume that costs will be equivalent to HO futures + 14.12 cents per gallon Upper and lower limits represent plus and minus one standard deviation of expected price movement as implied by heating oil options pricing
Energy Price Risk Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Energy Price Risk Management Strategy
Energy Price Risk Management Policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Energy Price Risk Management Management Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example Forward Pricing Performance Assuming 24 month forward pricing window and 100% hedged
Forward Pricing Example – Price Increase ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Forward Pricing Example – Price Decrease ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Creating Value Through Fuel Price Risk Management

  • 1. Creating Value Through Fuel Price Risk Management 2009 NYPTA Fall Conference Linwood Capital, LLC 4316 Eton Place Edina, Minnesota 55424 Telephone: 952.285.1134 Facsimile: 952.285.1135 E-mail: [email_address] Website: www.linwoodcapital.com
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  • 6. Energy Price Risk Management No Hedging Wide Range of Expected Cost Maximum Risk Exposure High Budget Risk Forecasted prices assume heating oil futures prices and heating oil implied option volatility on 8/31/09 Forecasted prices assume that costs will be equivalent to HO futures + 14.12 cents per gallon Upper and lower limits represent plus and minus one standard deviation of expected price movement as implied by heating oil options pricing
  • 7. Energy Price Risk Management Hedging Narrower Range of Expected Cost Managed Risk Exposure More Certain Future Costs Forecasted prices assume heating oil futures prices and heating oil implied option volatility on 8/31/09 Forecasted prices assume that costs will be equivalent to HO futures + 14.12 cents per gallon Upper and lower limits represent plus and minus one standard deviation of expected price movement as implied by heating oil options pricing
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  • 12. Example Forward Pricing Performance Assuming 24 month forward pricing window and 100% hedged
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