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Games Keynote

Contact: tim.merel@digi-capital.com

www.digi-capital.com

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

© Digi-Capital 2013
The games market is undergoing massive transformation
Mobile/Online

Casual

Hardcore

Console/PC

2
Driven by mobile internet – the most disruptive long term force
Estimated range of economic impact by disruptive technology in 2025 ($ Trillion annual)
0

2

4

6

8

10

Mobile Internet
Mobile Internet
Automation of knowledge work

Mobile
Internet to
create up
to $11
trillion
value
across
industries*
annually
in 2025

Internet of things

Cloud

Advanced robotics

Autonomous and non-autonomous vehicles

Next-generation genomics

Energy storage

3-D printing

Advanced materials

Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery

Renewable energy

3

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, May 2013 (estimates adapted)
* Across all industries, not just games
Leveraging massive industry and consumer investment
Well developed, global mobile tech stack
Devices/OS

Cross-platform
development

Global smart devices with mobile connection (B)
4.0

Mobile web
development

3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0

Programming
languages

Development
kits

1.5

Mobile Enterprise
App Platforms

1.0
0.5
0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
Smartphone

Tablet/Other Mobile

Global mobile data traffic (PB/Month)

Global mobile broadband subscriptions (B)
6

14,000

5

12,000
10,000

4

8,000
3

Large and
rich
mobile
app, game
and tech
potential
on top of
underlying
growth

6,000
2

4,000

1

2,000
-

0
2010

2011

2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Smartphone

Tablet/Other Mobile

2010

2011

2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Smartphone

4

Tablet/Other Mobile

* Sources: ITU, Ericsson, Cisco , Gartner (estimates adapted)
Games dominate mobile app usage, downloads and revenue
iOS/Android (Mobile/Tablet) Usage
Health &
Fitness
1%

News
2%

Lifestyle
1%

25

Other
5%

Utilities
10%

Games
43%

Entertainment
10%

20

Games monetise ~4x more effectively
than all other mobile app types
15

Social
Network
26%

Note: Games = 67% tablet usage

Games = 72% revenue

Productivity
2%

Global mobile apps/games revenue ($B)

10

Top 5 mobile app countries (revenue)
5

0
2010

2011

Non-games mobile app revenue

5

2012

2013F

Mobile games revenue

* Sources: Flurry, AppAnnie, Gartner
Free-to-play and communal gameplay changing sector dynamics
Communal Gameplay

Communal vs standalone gameplay user/revenue uplift

(competitive/collaborative)

Subscription MMO

Free-to-play
MMO

13x
OTT+

12x
>10x

Social

10x

Paid

Tech/Gamification

8x

Free
To
Play

6x

4x
Mobile/tablet
2x

+7%

Casual online
0x
Paying users

Single Player

Single player

6

ARPPU
PvE* only

PvP* only

ARPU
PvP and PvE

Sources: Companies, Kongregate
* ARPPU = average revenue per paying user, ARPU = average
revenue per user, , LTV = lifetime value, PvE = Player vs
environment, PvP = Player vs player
+ Over-the-Top
With long term mobile migration to free-to-play business models
Global mobile app downloads (B)

Global mobile app revenue ($B)

350

80

70

300

60

250

50

55% of
revenue

200
40
150
30
100
20
50

0
2010

45% of
revenue

10

2011

2012

2013F

Free-to-play

2014F

2015F

0
2010

2016F

2011

2012

Paid download

Paid

7

2013F

2014F

In-App purchase

Source: Gartner

2015F

2016F

Advertising
The Big V is accelerating the split into Value and Volume markets

Value

Volume

(large long-term niche)

(mass market growth)

Europe

China

America

Mobile/
tablet

Japan
India

Console

South Korea

Subscription MMO

Brazil

Mobile-social

Over-the-Top
Free-to-play MMO
Tech/gamification
Social/casual online

Users: thousands to tens of millions
ARPU: $-$$$
Costs: $ millions to tens of millions
Operating profit: negative to 20%+
Growth rates: negative to <10%
Business model: unit sales, subscriptions, virtual goods

Users: thousands to hundreds of millions
ARPU: ¢ - $$
Costs: $ tens of thousands to millions
Operating profit: negative to 70%+
Growth rates: negative to 100%+
Business model: unit sales, free, virtual goods, ads

8
Asia’s potential dominance accelerating vs Western markets
Global Video Games Sector Revenue ($B)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007

2008

2009

2010

Console

2011

Online

2012

Mobile

2013F
PC

2014F

2015F

2016F

2015F

2016F

Advertising

Regional Mobile/Online Games Revenue ($B)
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007

2008

2009

2010

North America

2011

2012

Europe

2013F

Asia Pacific

9

2014F

Latin America
Sources: PWC (excludes hardware revenue), Companies
* Note: Pure console excludes MMO
† Note: Online includes MMO, casual and social games
** Average Revenue per User
Games investment gap in 2013, M&A at record $5.2B to date
6,000

180
160

5,000
140
4,000

120
100

3,000
80
2,000

60
40

1,000
20
-

0
2005

2006

Investment Value

2007

2008

2009

M&A Value

2010

2011

Investment Volume

10

2012

2013P
(projected
from Q3)

M&A Volume

Sources: CapitalIQ (excludes Vivendi Activision and Vivendi Universal Publishing deals), NPD
Group, Charttrack, GfK, Activision Blizzard, Companies, Bloomberg, VentureBeat, NY Times
Note: Funds raised/transaction value only includes disclosed or estimated amounts, including
announced earn outs where applicable
* Note: IPO market capitalisation estimates
+ Excludes Shanda take private, LucasArts component of Disney/Lucas Film, Microsoft/BesTV
JV, Forgame IPO, Activision-Blizzard/Vivendi
With a changing pyramid of potential consolidators

8 of the10 largest M&As to Q3
2013 had Chinese, Japanese
or South Korean buyers

Today’s growth companies
could become tomorrow’s
consolidators

11

Note: Companies are for illustrative purposes only

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Digi-Capital - NOAH13 London

  • 1. Games Keynote Contact: tim.merel@digi-capital.com www.digi-capital.com Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority © Digi-Capital 2013
  • 2. The games market is undergoing massive transformation Mobile/Online Casual Hardcore Console/PC 2
  • 3. Driven by mobile internet – the most disruptive long term force Estimated range of economic impact by disruptive technology in 2025 ($ Trillion annual) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Mobile Internet Mobile Internet Automation of knowledge work Mobile Internet to create up to $11 trillion value across industries* annually in 2025 Internet of things Cloud Advanced robotics Autonomous and non-autonomous vehicles Next-generation genomics Energy storage 3-D printing Advanced materials Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery Renewable energy 3 Source: McKinsey Global Institute, May 2013 (estimates adapted) * Across all industries, not just games
  • 4. Leveraging massive industry and consumer investment Well developed, global mobile tech stack Devices/OS Cross-platform development Global smart devices with mobile connection (B) 4.0 Mobile web development 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Programming languages Development kits 1.5 Mobile Enterprise App Platforms 1.0 0.5 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Smartphone Tablet/Other Mobile Global mobile data traffic (PB/Month) Global mobile broadband subscriptions (B) 6 14,000 5 12,000 10,000 4 8,000 3 Large and rich mobile app, game and tech potential on top of underlying growth 6,000 2 4,000 1 2,000 - 0 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Smartphone Tablet/Other Mobile 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Smartphone 4 Tablet/Other Mobile * Sources: ITU, Ericsson, Cisco , Gartner (estimates adapted)
  • 5. Games dominate mobile app usage, downloads and revenue iOS/Android (Mobile/Tablet) Usage Health & Fitness 1% News 2% Lifestyle 1% 25 Other 5% Utilities 10% Games 43% Entertainment 10% 20 Games monetise ~4x more effectively than all other mobile app types 15 Social Network 26% Note: Games = 67% tablet usage Games = 72% revenue Productivity 2% Global mobile apps/games revenue ($B) 10 Top 5 mobile app countries (revenue) 5 0 2010 2011 Non-games mobile app revenue 5 2012 2013F Mobile games revenue * Sources: Flurry, AppAnnie, Gartner
  • 6. Free-to-play and communal gameplay changing sector dynamics Communal Gameplay Communal vs standalone gameplay user/revenue uplift (competitive/collaborative) Subscription MMO Free-to-play MMO 13x OTT+ 12x >10x Social 10x Paid Tech/Gamification 8x Free To Play 6x 4x Mobile/tablet 2x +7% Casual online 0x Paying users Single Player Single player 6 ARPPU PvE* only PvP* only ARPU PvP and PvE Sources: Companies, Kongregate * ARPPU = average revenue per paying user, ARPU = average revenue per user, , LTV = lifetime value, PvE = Player vs environment, PvP = Player vs player + Over-the-Top
  • 7. With long term mobile migration to free-to-play business models Global mobile app downloads (B) Global mobile app revenue ($B) 350 80 70 300 60 250 50 55% of revenue 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 0 2010 45% of revenue 10 2011 2012 2013F Free-to-play 2014F 2015F 0 2010 2016F 2011 2012 Paid download Paid 7 2013F 2014F In-App purchase Source: Gartner 2015F 2016F Advertising
  • 8. The Big V is accelerating the split into Value and Volume markets Value Volume (large long-term niche) (mass market growth) Europe China America Mobile/ tablet Japan India Console South Korea Subscription MMO Brazil Mobile-social Over-the-Top Free-to-play MMO Tech/gamification Social/casual online Users: thousands to tens of millions ARPU: $-$$$ Costs: $ millions to tens of millions Operating profit: negative to 20%+ Growth rates: negative to <10% Business model: unit sales, subscriptions, virtual goods Users: thousands to hundreds of millions ARPU: ¢ - $$ Costs: $ tens of thousands to millions Operating profit: negative to 70%+ Growth rates: negative to 100%+ Business model: unit sales, free, virtual goods, ads 8
  • 9. Asia’s potential dominance accelerating vs Western markets Global Video Games Sector Revenue ($B) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Console 2011 Online 2012 Mobile 2013F PC 2014F 2015F 2016F 2015F 2016F Advertising Regional Mobile/Online Games Revenue ($B) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 North America 2011 2012 Europe 2013F Asia Pacific 9 2014F Latin America Sources: PWC (excludes hardware revenue), Companies * Note: Pure console excludes MMO † Note: Online includes MMO, casual and social games ** Average Revenue per User
  • 10. Games investment gap in 2013, M&A at record $5.2B to date 6,000 180 160 5,000 140 4,000 120 100 3,000 80 2,000 60 40 1,000 20 - 0 2005 2006 Investment Value 2007 2008 2009 M&A Value 2010 2011 Investment Volume 10 2012 2013P (projected from Q3) M&A Volume Sources: CapitalIQ (excludes Vivendi Activision and Vivendi Universal Publishing deals), NPD Group, Charttrack, GfK, Activision Blizzard, Companies, Bloomberg, VentureBeat, NY Times Note: Funds raised/transaction value only includes disclosed or estimated amounts, including announced earn outs where applicable * Note: IPO market capitalisation estimates + Excludes Shanda take private, LucasArts component of Disney/Lucas Film, Microsoft/BesTV JV, Forgame IPO, Activision-Blizzard/Vivendi
  • 11. With a changing pyramid of potential consolidators 8 of the10 largest M&As to Q3 2013 had Chinese, Japanese or South Korean buyers Today’s growth companies could become tomorrow’s consolidators 11 Note: Companies are for illustrative purposes only