This document discusses several topics related to the global energy landscape including: 1) The impact of resource wealth on economic development and political stability in resource-rich countries. 2) Projections for peak oil production and the outlook for future oil supply. 3) Geopolitical dynamics involving major energy consumers and producers like the US, China, Russia, and OPEC countries. 4) Issues of energy security, transit routes, climate policy and the role of different fuels.

3. Geography

4. International Trading

5. Resource Curse

6. Peak Oil Pessimism

7. Security of Transit Routes

8. Political PowerA Muzahid Khan Presentation START

10. 53 countries have >5% GDP from mineral exports

11. Half of them>20% of GDP from mineral exports

12. Half of OPEC members poorer now than they were in the 1970s. Algeria & Nigeria unraveling

13. 1/3 of all civil wars in oil producing countries – Algeria, Columbia, Sudan, Iraq; A Muzahid Khan Presentation

14. The Oily Diet USA - 20.6 mbd (23.9%); 10 mbd (48.5%) China – 7.8 mbd (9.5%); 3.2 mbd (41%) Japan – 5.1 mbd (6%) ; 4.2 mbd (82.3%) South Korea – 2.5 mbd (3%) 2.46 mbd (97%) Germany – 2.39 mbd (2.8%); India - 2.74 mbd (3.3%); 1.8 mbd (65.6%) (Source: BP Stats) A Muzahid Khan Presentation

15. Peak OIL ? Most optimistic forecasts – 2025 Mathew Simmons – 2007-09 Hirsch Study - 2025 Deffeyes & King Hubbert - 2009 World Energy Council – After 2010 Campbell - 2010 Yergin – Plateau in 2040 or 2050 EIA – 2016 A Muzahid Khan Presentation

16. A Muzahid Khan Presentation

17. US Policy post 9/11 US Energy Policy Act 2005 – Tax breaks, Diversification, Federalization Drilling in the Arctic (90 bnbl oil, 1670 tcf gas, 144 bnblnatgas liquids) Rethink on nuclear energy(20,000 mw), corn to ethanol Imports from Gulf, 22%(Canada, S.Arabia, Venezuela ,Mexico & Nigeria make up 62% of US imports US troops out of Saudi Arabia – no longer buddies? Military Bases in Central Asia – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan??? BTC, Nabucco pipelines to ferry oil and gas from Central Asia A Muzahid Khan Presentation

18. Russian Petrostate 5%(or is it more?) of Global Oil Reserves 11 mbd production in 2007. Largest producer in the world >12.9% of Global Oil Production; 7 mbd exported 32% of Global Gas Reserves (Gulf 39%) 670 bcm gas Production in 2006. 40% exported Importance of Energy in Russia’s Economy 40% of GDP,60% of Export Income,40% of Tax Revenues, Low Domestic Prices IncentiviseExports,Oil Revenues Fuel Economic Boom Energy-fascism – Energy as Patrimony and Instrument of foreign policy – Heads I win, tails you lose Yukos, Sakhalin-2, Shtokman, Gazprom’s growing monopoly A Muzahid Khan Presentation

19. The Chinese Dragon GDP growing around 9.5% 7.8 mbd of oil in 2007; Projected to increase to 11 mbd by 2020 acc NDRC (IEA=12 mbd) 50% imported; Oil imports growing at 7.5% Aggressively acquiring oil acreages -15% to come from overseas acreages Oil Industry Restructuring, Price Reforms Diplomatic, Strategic, Political Initiatives Oil pipeline to Yunnan from Sittwe (2380 kms) Quantum jumps in trade with Middle East ($20b in 2005 to $135 bn in 2006) A Muzahid Khan Presentation END

20. Kyoto & Its Implications Kyoto clock ticking away for EU Combustion, the biggest polluter (coal-based generation & oil refining=83% of CO2) Kyoto, Asia and Life after 2012 Nuclear as a clean fuel option? Coal to drive Asian economies Gas competing with nuclear, coal in Asia A Muzahid Khan Presentation END

21. A Muzahid Khan Presentation THE FUTURE HYBRID END