2. AMARA’S LAW
We tend to overestimate the effect
of a technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the
long run.
Roy Amara, past president of The Institute for the Future.
Roy Amara was a researcher, scientist and past president of the Institute for the Future. Born in Boston 1925, he has also worked at
Stanford Research Institute. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering. He
died in 2007. He is possibly best known for the quotation "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long run.", which was paraphrased by Robert X. Cringely, and is sometimes known as Amara's Law.
The Socialisation of Brands 2
3. The prediction of influence over time.
http://www.baekdal.com/articles/management/market-of-information/
4. The prediction of influence over time.
http://www.baekdal.com/articles/management/market-of-information/
9. The expanding Wave universe Wave 5
Algeria
Argentina Australia
Austria
Bahrain
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Wave 4 Czech Republic
Denmark
Australia Ecuador
Austria Egypt
Belgium Estonia
Brazil France
Canada Germany
China Hong Kong
Colombia Hungary
Wave 3 Czech Republic India
Denmark Italy
Australia Ecuador Ireland (ROI)
Austria Finland Japan
Brazil France Korea
Canada Germany KSA
China Hong Kong Kuwait
Czech Republic Hungary Latvia
Wave 2 Denmark India Lebanon Lithuania
France Italy Malaysia
Australia Germany Japan Mexico Netherlands
Brazil Greece Korea Norway
China Hong Kong Latvia Oman
France Hungary Lithuania Philippines Poland
Wave 1 Germany India Malaysia Portugal
Greece Italy Mexico Qatar
Australia India Japan Netherlands Romania
Brazil Italy Korea Norway Russia
China Japan Mexico Peru Serbia
France Korea Netherlands Philippines Singapore
37,600 54 Germany
Italy
India
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Mexico
Pakistan
Philippines
Russia
Pakistan
Philippines
Poland
Romania
Russia
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Singapore
Slovakia
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Taiwan
respondents countries Mexico Singapore Spain South Africa Thailand
Philippines Spain Switzerland Spain Tunisia
Russia Taiwan Taiwan Sweden Turkey
Spain Thailand Turkey Turkey UAE
UK UK UK UK UK
US US US US US
The Socialisation of Brands 9
13. Understanding means and motives
Q: “Which of the following do a good job when you want to...”
Be creative
Stay in touch with 50 Change opinions
friends
Share new experiences 40 Earn respect
30 Explore the world
Share knowledge
around me
20
Seek other people's
Express yourself
opinions 10
0
Promote yourself Feel like you belong
Meet new people Hang out or waste time
Manage my life better Have Fun/be entertained
Make money Keep up to date
Make contacts for work Learn something new
Instant Messenger Message Boards Blogs Video Sites
The Socialisation of Brands 13
14. Multi-faceted social networks
Q: “Which of the following do a good job when you want to...”
Be creative
Stay in touch with 50 Change opinions
friends
Share new experiences 40 Earn respect
30 Explore the world
Share knowledge
around me
20
Seek other people's
Express yourself
opinions 10
0
Promote yourself Feel like you belong
Meet new people Hang out or waste time
Manage my life better Have Fun/be entertained
Make money Keep up to date
Make contacts for work Learn something new
Instant Messenger Message Boards Blogs Video Sites Social Networks
The Socialisation of Brands 14
18. Q: “Which of the following do a good job when you want to...”
Be creative Be creative
Stay in touch with Stay in touch with 50
50 Change opinions Change opinions
friends friends
Share new Share new
40 Earn respect 40 Earn respect
experiences experiences
30 Explore the world 30 Explore the world
Share knowledge Share knowledge
around me around me
20 20
Seek other people's Seek other people's
Express yourself Express yourself
opinions 10 opinions 10
0 Feel like you 0
Promote yourself Promote yourself Feel like you belong
belong
Hang out or waste
Meet new people Hang out or waste
time Meet new people
time
Manage my life Have Fun/be
better entertained Manage my life Have Fun/be
better entertained
Make money Keep up to date
Make contacts for Learn something Make money Keep up to date
work new Make contacts for Learn something
work new
Be creative
Stay in touch with 50 Change opinions
friends
Share new
40 Earn respect
experiences
30 Explore the world
Share knowledge
Instant Messenger around me
20
Seek other people's
Message Boards opinions 10
Express yourself
Blogs Promote yourself
0 Feel like you
belong
Video Sites Hang out or waste
Meet new people
time
Manage my life Have Fun/be
better entertained
Make money Keep up to date
Make contacts for Learn something
work new
The Socialisation of Brands 18
19. Multi-faceted social networks (Latvia)
Q: “Which of the following do a good job when you want to...”
Be creative
Stay in touch with 50 Change opinions
friends
Share new experiences 40 Earn respect
30 Explore the world
Share knowledge
around me
20
Seek other people's
Express yourself
opinions 10
-
Promote yourself Feel like you belong
Meet new people Hang out or waste time
Manage my life better Have Fun/be entertained
Make money Keep up to date
Make contacts for work Learn something new
Tērzēšana tiešsaistē Zi ojumu dē i Blogi Video mājas lapas Sociālie tīkli
The Socialisation of Brands 19
20. Multi-faceted social networks (Lithuania)
Q: “Which of the following do a good job when you want to...”
Be creative
Stay in touch with 50 Change opinions
friends
Share new experiences 40 Earn respect
30 Explore the world
Share knowledge
around me
20
Seek other people's
Express yourself
opinions 10
-
Promote yourself Feel like you belong
Meet new people Hang out or waste time
Manage my life better Have Fun/be entertained
Make money Keep up to date
Make contacts for work Learn something new
Instant Messenger Message Boards Blogs Video Sites Social Networks
The Socialisation of Brands 20
21. Multi-faceted social networks (Estonia)
Q: “Which of the following do a good job when you want to...”
Be creative
Stay in touch with 50 Change opinions
friends
Share new experiences 40 Earn respect
30 Explore the world
Share knowledge
around me
20
Seek other people's
Express yourself
opinions 10
0
Promote yourself Feel like you belong
Meet new people Hang out or waste time
Manage my life better Have Fun/be entertained
Make money Keep up to date
Make contacts for work Learn something new
Instant Messenger Message Boards Blogs Video Sites Social Networks
The Socialisation of Brands 21
22. Social networks in Baltics
Q: “Which of the following do a good job when you want to...”
Be creative
Stay in touch with 50 Change opinions
friends
Share new experiences 40 Earn respect
30 Explore the world
Share knowledge
around me
20
Seek other people's
Express yourself
opinions 10
-
Promote yourself Feel like you belong
Meet new people Hang out or waste time
Manage my life better Have Fun/be entertained
Make money Keep up to date
Make contacts for work Learn something new
Latvia Lithuania Estonia World
The Socialisation of Brands 22
25. Growing fast
90%
80% Create a
profile on a
70%
social network
60%
50% Manage a
% Ever Done
profile on a
40%
social network
30%
20% Visit a friend's
social network
10%
page
0%
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q: “Thinking about the internet, which of the following have you
ever done?”
The Socialisation of Brands 25
27. A pull of people...
60
Face to face
50 Phone
Text message
40
Number of people
Email
30
Instant
Messenger
20
Social Network
10 My personal blog
Forum/message
0
Wave 3 2008 Wave 4 2009 Wave 5 2010 boards
Q: “Approximately how many people do you stay in contact with in your personal life through the
following means?”
The Socialisation of Brands 27
28. Here in Baltics travel
distances are little.
It’s easy and affordable to see each
other in real life.
29. A pull of people...
Social Networks stand out
60
among digital means of Face to face
staying in contact Phone
50 Text message
Email
Instant Messenger
40 Social Network
Number of people
My personal blog
Forum/message boards
30
20
10
0
Wave 5 2010 Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Q: “Approximately how many people do you stay in contact with in your personal life through the
following means?”
The Socialisation of Brands 29
31. Blogs & forums move away from personal
topics Q: “When you read blogs, which of the following types of blogs do you read
most often?”- Amongst those who have read a blog in the last 6 months, “Which
of the following have you done with your social networking profile?” - Amongst
those who have used a social network in the last 6 months
50%
Personal Blogs (diary sites)
45%
Family/friend Blogs
40%
Write a blog on my social
network
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Wave 3 2008 Wave 4 2009 Wave 5 2010
The Socialisation of Brands 31
32. Blogs & forums move away from personal
topics Q: “When you read blogs, which of the following types of blogs do you read
most often?”- Amongst those who have read a blog in the last 6 months, “Which
of the following have you done with your social networking profile?” - Amongst
those who have used a social network in the last 6 months
Writing blogs on social network sites
40% still not popular in the Baltics
Personal Blogs (diary sites)
Family/friend Blogs
35%
Write a blog on my social network
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Wave 5 2010 Wave 5 Baltics
The Socialisation of Brands 32
34. The new engine of social media
The Socialisation of Brands 34
35. Smartphone ownership drives mobile
internet use
Q: % of people who access the internet via a mobile device and the % of smartphone owners
who access the internet via a mobile device
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
GLOBAL Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Mobile phone owners Smart phone owners
The Socialisation of Brands 35
40. Are people moving away from traditional
brand spaces online?
Q: “Thinking about using the internet, have you visited an
official brand/company website in the last 6 months?”
90% 90%
88% 88%
86% 86%
84% 84%
82% 82%
80% 80%
78% 78%
76% 76%
74% 74%
72% 72%
70% 70%
Wave 3 2008 Wave 4 2009 Wave 5 2010 Wave 5 2010 Baltics
The Socialisation of Brands 40
42. There is certainly a move towards
engaging brands in social spaces
Q: “Which of the following have you done with your social
networking profile?” -Amongst those who have used a social
network in the last 6 months”
50%
Wave 4 2009
40%
Wave 5 2010
30%
20%
10%
0%
Affiliate with or become a Join a group
fan of a brand
The Socialisation of Brands 42
43. There is certainly a move towards
engaging brands in social spaces
Q: “Which of the following have you done with your social
networking profile?” -Amongst those who have used a social
network in the last 6 months”
60%
Wave 5 2010
50%
Wave 5 2010 Baltics
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Affiliate with or become a fan of a Join a group
brand
The Socialisation of Brands 43
45. All categories come close.
Health Movies Music
Telecomms
75% 74% 73% Travel
71%
71%
Food Cars
Software 70% Finance
63%
71% 67%
Q: Amongst those who show an interest in an category, how many want an interaction with companies in that category (i.e. At
least one or more interaction). These included a range of interactions from getting access to advance news of products to being
able to access decision makers and influence product development
The Socialisation of Brands 45
47. Wast variety of resons to join.
Q: Agreement with the descriptions of why they joined a brand community amongst
those have ever joined a brand community online by region.
To support a cause I
like
100%
To share my
To get advance news
80% appreciation with
of products
others
60%
40%
To associate with
Because it was 20% something I think is
recommended to me
cool
0%
To learn more about
To fill time/have fun
it
To feel part of a like-
To get free content
minded community
LatAm Middle East & Africa Asia & Oceania North America Europe
The Socialisation of Brands 47
49. Benefits clearly are there!
Q: “As a result of joining a brand community, please indicate how much you agree with the following statements?”
72% 71% 66% 63%
“I thought more “I am more likely to “I felt more loyal “I recommended
positively of the brand” buy the brand” towards the brand” others to join”
The Socialisation of Brands 49
50. Different categories, different needs
Q: “Thinking about companies in the following categories, which of following
statements describes the kind of interaction you would like to have with these
companies?” amongst those who show an interest in the category.
Access to fun and
entertaining content
50%
Contact employee
decision makers & Access to breaking
influence product
40% news
development
30%
20%
Tools help express
creativity & make 10% An opportunity to learn
something worth something new
sharing
0%
An opportunity to Access to unique events
develop my skills or competitions
A personal response to Communicate & share
my issues/complaints experiences with others
Movies Health & well being
The Socialisation of Brands 50
51. The impact
Social media is an incredibly dynamic environment.
Terms like “friend” and “influencer” are no longer adequate to describe the array of social activity and
interaction that is occurring amongst the vast communities now being built online.
A deeper understanding of consumer needs and motivations is the key to
unlocking a real understanding of social media and its users.
Social networks are becoming powerful hubs of interconnected communities but it’s not just people that
are connecting in the social media space. There is huge demand for a more social and interactive
relationships with brands and companies. There is more possibilities for consumers to interact and effect
products, delivery and here social meda plays important role.
Almost half of the Active Internet Universe has already joined a brand
community.
These communities are also clearly having a huge benefit to the brands involved, driving brand loyalty,
endorsement and sales.
However, understanding the nature of social demand for each consumer, category and market is the key
to creating a successful social media experience.
The Socialisation of Brands 51
52. If you’re not on that train just yet, catch it
while you can!
There’s a seat reserved for you...
52
54. Inspired – short facts
• Young media agency (y2005), that is transforming to multi-
discipline communications agency.
• No2 media agency in 2009 by turnover and No3 media agency
in reputation top in 2010.
• Affiliated to media agency to Universal McCann (IPG), yet
operating fully independently;
• 38 employees (including all units);
• Strategic punks and rebels.
54