Michael Davies of Endeavour Partners discusses the five forces impacting the next wave of mobile

1. MassTLC Mobile Summit
The future is already here…
Michael A M Davies
Microsoft NERD Center, Cambridge, MA
July 22, 2014

2. Mobile Summit Keynote
July 22, 20141
…it’s just not evenly distributed. Yet.

3. Mobile Summit Keynote
Endeavour Partners works with leaders in technology to
anticipate the future, navigate through change, and to
innovate better and more quickly
July 22, 20142
• Predict technology innovations
• Identify/assess demand
opportunities
• Forecast new markets
• Understand how business
ecosystems will emerge/evolve
• Make connections amongst these
developments
• Anticipate the dynamics and
potential scenarios
• We have a unique approach and
way of thinking together
• We combine a core team, all of
whom have specialist expertise
and relevant experience
• With a broad and diverse network
of relationships and partnerships
throughout the ecosystem,
worldwide
What we do:
Our services
Who we work for:
Our clients
Why we are
different
• Top tier device vendors, service
providers, network operators and
infrastructure vendors who are at
the forefront of the mobile/digital
ecosystem in software/computing/
semiconductors, CE, content and
e/m-commerce
• Businesses impacted by
technology: retail/FMCG,
transportation, financial services
• Investors in these business
• Governments and policy makers
(DoJ and DG Comp)
• Determine implications of key
scenarios
• Identify/evaluate strategic options
• Make smart, timely decisions
• Identify who to target, what to
offer, when, and which technology
to pursue
• Determine who to partner with
• Define how to create and capture
value
• Discover how to delight customers
in new ways
• Develop breakthrough creative
ideas
• Leverage partnerships and
catalyze business ecosystems
• Instill agile approaches and
enhance productivity

4. Mobile Summit Keynote
Our perspective – forward-looking, opinionated – and
iconoclastic
July 22, 20143
(There may be some things I cannot say, some things I cannot share, or questions I
cannot answer because of legal constraints or client confidentiality)
This is a forward-
looking, iconoclastic,
and even heretical
viewpoint
We are passionate
about it and continue
to invest
We have an opinion
and we are unafraid
to challenge
conventional wisdom
We have a long track
record of seeing
things others miss,
recognizing shifts
earlier and spotting
key turning points
and transitions
In particular we are
writing a book now
because:
We now recognize a
clear pattern of
innovation principles
that drive success
Innovation is
important; getting it
right really matters
We are at an
inflection point

5. Mobile Summit Keynote
We face a perfect storm of creative destruction
July 22, 20144
Smartphone
penetration is 65%
in the United States
and >50% in many
developed countries
20%
40%
60%
80% 25% CAGR
LTE coverage now
extends to 90%+ of
Americans. Wi-Fi is
everywhere
Billions of people
use the cloud
Cloud
computing
Internet of
things
Big data /
machine
learning
Smartphones
What happens when these
five forces converge?
Smartphones
Pervasive
connectivity
Cloud
computing
Widespread
wireless
broadband

6. Mobile Summit Keynote
It’s a Nor’easter in MA: The eye of the storm
July 22, 20145
High tablet
and
smartphone
penetration in
MA
The 4 major
networks have
almost
completed
their MA LTE
rollouts
Many cloud,
big data, and
machine
learning
companies in
MA
A demographic shift is ongoing
Digital Natives (many of whom are students)
are smartphone-centric, PC agnostic, relaxed
about security, grew up in a digital
environment and are comfortable and
familiar with all things digital (your kids)
In Boston/Cambridge:
16,000 people/
square mile
In Silicon Valley:
35 universities/
100 square
miles
4,000 people/
square mile
1.5 universities/
100 square
miles
vs.
Smartphones
Pervasive
connectivity
Cloud
computing

7. Mobile Summit Keynote
July 22, 20146
What does this convergence mean?
Customers are
empowered
Customers have instant
access to information
anywhere, anytime, about
anything (including sensing
and controlling)
The nature of work is
changing
Who is affected?
Transportation
Retail
Education
Healthcare
Then:
…and the customer-to-
customer interaction has
changed
How does work get done?
With a modern &
consistent user
experience with a
seamless transition
across devices
Utilizing
automation &
machine learning
Innovation is
accelerating and
becoming more
interactive

8. Mobile Summit Keynote
Consumers are becoming wizards…
July 22, 20147
…with easy access to:
Anytime, anywhere, instantly.
Data Information Knowledge Wisdom

9. Mobile Summit Keynote
…and our products must keep pace
July 22, 20148

10. Mobile Summit Keynote
July 22, 20149
What are examples of this change?
Making travel simpler, easier and
more reliable
Providing simple, easily
adoptable payment methods
Automating our homes
Easily and quickly find a location
to charge your electric vehicle
Amazon’s app/fire phone makes
impulse buying easy… especially
when at a competitors store
Recording our health and wellness

11. Mobile Summit Keynote
Uber needed
July 22, 201410
Uber started by
utilizing waste in the
transportation
system (empty cars)
It is now creating
new value as a
supplement to mass
transit
And as an
alternative to a
rental car
And as an
alternative to car
ownership
Source: Above the Crowd by Bill Gurley, http://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/
fast, widespread
connectivity,
and big data to
flourish
smartphones with
location services,
$100B market
...which grows
the TAM
+$27B in the
US alone
$1.3T TAM

12. Mobile Summit Keynote
July 22, 201411
What do you do next as a business?
In the beginning… A few years ago… Today, and in the future…
No one worried about their
mobile, digital, cloud, or
big data strategies
Mobile, digital, cloud and
big data were side projects,
and not core to most
companies strategies
Mobile, digital, cloud and big
data must be pervasive in
your companies strategy
Strategy Strategy
• Good/Easy/Fast vs. Bad/Hard/Slow
• Business who are slow to adopt and innovate will perish
• Instant access to information empowers customers and accelerates both the gain of the Good/Easy/Fast and the
decline of the Bad/Hard/Slow

13. Mobile Summit Keynote
The mobile ecosystem
July 22, 201412
Infrastructure
Networks
OS
Devices
High-end
devices
Low-end
devices
Infrastructure
providers will be fine
Any OS’s besides iOS and
Android will struggle to gain
market share
Players “stuck in the middle”
will struggle as they need either
high volume or high margin
Either go simple/
inexpensive or provide
added services

14. Mobile Summit Keynote
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…
July 22, 201413
Discovery is too hard
There is no standalone app
ecosystem
There are lots of great tools
Winners are able to design
across all platforms using big
data, machine learning and
the cloud
Consumers expect a great
user experience
Demand will remain high and
accelerate
The bad news The good news

15. Mobile Summit Keynote
What does this mean for different developer segments?
July 22, 201414
Hexagons show % of total developer population in Q3 2014
Source: State of the Developer Nation Q3 2014, Vision Mobile

16. Strategic Insights for Global Technology Leaders
Cambridge, MA – London, UK
Q & A