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Analysis of the key operating

  metrics published in the

     Groupon S-1 Filing




      Report Author: Martin New

       Prepared: 19/07/2011




              CONTACT




                  Prepared by Martin New   Page 1
Summary of Key Numbers:

     Subscribers: 83.1 million - up from 3.4 million in March 2010 (2,320%)
     Customers: 15.8 million – up from 874,000 in March 2010 (1,708%)
     Subscriber acquisition cost: 30$
     Customer conversion rate: 19%
     Featured Merchants: total 125,765 : 56,781 in Q1 2011 – up from 2,903 in Q1 2010
      (1856%)
     Merchant pool (IE deals in pipeline): Currently 40,000 (up from 15 in March 2009)
     Groupons sold: 60 million total. 28.1 million in Q1 2011 – up from 1.8 million in Q1
      2010 (1,496%)
     Revenue: $713 million in Yr end Dec 2010 – up from $30.5 million in 2010 (2,241%)
     Average Revenue per merchant: $11,000
     Average Groupon price: $23
     Average revenue per Subscriber: $14.10 in 2010 vs $7.76 in Q1 2011
     Groupon:Merchant Revenue split: currently at 60:40 in Merchants favor
     Gross Profit: $280 million in Yr end Dec 2011 – up from $11 million in 2010
      (2,462%)
     Net Income/Loss from operations: Loss of $114 million in Q1 2011 vs income of $8.7
      million in Q1 2010
     Marketing Spend: Grew by +5,000% in Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010 ($208 million)
     Selling, Gen and Admin: Grew by 2,300% in Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010 ($179 million)
     Total operating expenses: accounted for 118% of revenue in Q1 2011 vs 80% in Q1
      2010 ($762 million in Q1 2011 – up 2,000%)
     Employees: 7,107 (76% International)
     Revenue per sales employee: North America - $450,000 vs International - $120,000
     Geographical coverage: 43 countries and 175 North American Markets
     International vs North America: International operations account for 58% of revenue




                                            Prepared by Martin New               Page 2
CHART INDEX

                                Chart                                      Page
Groupon Revenue vs Gross Profit Trend                                       4

Subscribers, Cummulative Customers vs Groupons sold                          4

Quarterly growth of Groupon Subscribers and Customers                        5

Percent of Subscribers purchasing Groupons                                   5

Groupons Purchased by Customer and Subscriber                                6

Acquisition Cost vs Revenue per subscriber                                   6

Average Groupon Deal Price                                                   7

Global Sales by Category Q1 2011 (Volume based)                              7

Sales Cost and Customer Acquisition vs Revenue per Featured Merchant         8

Average Revenue per Merchant                                                 8

Gross Profit to Cost of Revenue Trend                                        9

Operational Costs as a Percentage of Revenue                                 9

Employee Head Count by function and Segment                                 10

Revenue per Sales Employee Q1 2011 (North America vs International)         10

Merchants per Sales Employee Q1 2011 (North America vs International)       11

North America vs International Revenue                                      11

Marketing Spend Share North America vs International                        11

4 City Comparison: Subscriber trend                                         12

4 City Comparison: Cumulative Customer trend                                12

4 City Comparison: Customer share of Subscribers                            13

4 City Comparison: Groupons purchased per subscriber                        13

4 City Comparison: Average Price per Groupon                                14

4 City Comparison: Groupons Sold per Merchant                               14

4 City Comparison: Average Revenue per Featured Merchant                    15




                                  Prepared by Martin New                Page 3
Revenue and Gross Profit

Groupon has experience tremendous revenue growth within the 30 months of trading. In
the first quarter of 2011, the company generated nearly $655 million in sales (up from $44
million a year earlier. Gross profit in the last quarter stood at $270 million. Groupon classify
Gross Profit as Revenue (receipts from Groupon sales) less Cost of Revenue (payment made
to merchants).




                                                                                                                                                                 644,728
                                      Groupon Revenue vs Gross Profit Trend
         700,000
                                                   ($000's)
         600,000




                                                                                                                                           396,600
         500,000




                                                                                                                                                                           270,000
         400,000




                                                                                                                       185,231
         300,000




                                                                                                                                                     153,309
                                                                                                         87,298
         200,000




                                                                                                                                 72,287
                                                                                     44,236




                                                                                                      34,373
                                                                                    19,985
                                                                     16,920
                                                    9,998




                                                                    5,641
                                                    3,996
                                          3,301




         100,000
                                          1,209
                                252
                                83




                      0
                           March          June      Sept             Dec           March              June             Sept                 Dec                 March
                                                       Revenue              Gross Profit



Subscriber and Customer Base


                                         Groupon Key Metrics
                          Subscribers, Cumulative Customers vs Groupons sold

                                                            Acquired 1.9 million subscribers
                                                            May 2010 with CityDeal acquisition




                                 March     June      Sept         Dec          March          June           Sept                Dec        March
        Subscribers                       152,203   627,051     1,807,278     3,434,610   10,445,521      21,369,608     50,583,805       83,100,006
        Cummulative Customers    6,840     43,014   153,471     375,099       874,017     2,379,611       4,623,267       9,031,807       15,803,995
        Groupons Sold            27,221   116,231   340,471     764,869       1,760,398   4,062,458       8,237,733      16,235,481       28,094,743




                                                                      Prepared by Martin New                                                                   Page 4
As at March 2011, Groupon had acquired 83.1 million subscribers, of which 15.8 million had
purchased 1 or more Groupons (19% conversion). Since launch, 60 million Groupons have
been sold.


                          Quarterly growth of Groupon Subscribers and Customers




                                                                                                                                    32,516
                                                                                                                   29,214
               35,000
  Thousands




               30,000

               25,000

               20,000




                                                                                                  10,924
               15,000




                                                                                7,011




                                                                                                                                             6,772
               10,000




                                                                                                                            4,409
                                                                                                           2,244
                                                                     1,627




                                                                                        1,506
                                                         1,180
                5,000



                                                                    499
                                              475




                                                        222
                                   152




                                              110
                                   36
                              7




                      0
                           March   June       Sept        Dec     March     June     Sept                           Dec             March
                                           Additional Subscribers    Additional customers


When broken down by quarter, Groupon saw subscribers increase by an impressive 18.3
million in Q4 2010 (167% growth), vs a growth in additional unique subscribers of 2.2
million (96% growth). The chart below shows the gradual decline in the rate of conversion
of total subscribers.


                           Percent of Subscribers purchasing Groupons


                          28.3%
              29.0%
              27.0%                                         25.4%
                                   24.5%
              25.0%
                                                                             22.8%
              23.0%                                                                             21.6%
                                                20.8%
              21.0%
                                                                                                                                      19.0%
              19.0%                                                                                                17.9%

              17.0%
              15.0%
                          June     Sept          Dec       March             June               Sept               Dec               March

Note: The conversion rate is likely to be less than shown since Groupon do not include “guest” purchases in their
subscriber numbers.




                                                                 Prepared by Martin New                                                       Page 5
Groupon Key Metrics
                       Groupons Purchased by Customer and Subscriber
  4.5
             4.0
    4
  3.5
    3                        2.7
  2.5                                       2.2
                                                         2.0          2.0
    2                                                                              1.7            1.8         1.8            1.8
  1.5
    1                  0.8
                                      0.5          0.4          0.5          0.4            0.4         0.3            0.3
  0.5
    0
           March       June            Sept          Dec        March         June           Sept        Dec           March

                             Groupons per subscriber ratio              Groupons per Customer ratio


The average number of Groupons purchased per subscriber has held steady at around 2
over the last 18 months.

Average acquisition cost per new customer is 30$ (and rising) vs revenue of 14$ per
subscriber (and falling). This is particularly high for non-recurring customers. Netflix SAC
(Subscriber Acquisition Cost) for example is now at 14$.


                                             Acquisition Cost vs Revenue
                                                   per subscriber
  $35.00                                          $30.40                                                  $30.74
  $30.00
  $25.00
  $20.00                    $16.86
                                                           $14.10                        $12.88
  $15.00           $12.12
  $10.00                                                                      $7.99                                   $7.76
   $5.00
   $0.00
                       2009                           2010                          2010                            2011

                                     Yr end Dec                                             3mth End March

                              Acquisition cost per new Customer              Revenue per Subscriber




                                                                Prepared by Martin New                                 Page 6
Groupons

To-date Groupon has sold around 60 million Groupons for a total revenue of almost $1.4
Billion. The average price of a Groupon has held steady at around 23$ for the past 18 mths.


                                        Average Groupon Deal Price
  $35
                                 $29
                      $28
  $30
                                                   $25                             $24
  $25                                      $22                             $22            $23
                                                               $21

  $20

  $15
           $9
  $10

   $5

   $0
         March        June       Sept      Dec    March        June        Sept    Dec   March



Something that was not covered in the S-1 filing was the share by deal type that Groupon
has been offering. As competition heats up and deal sites start to target specific niche
verticals, it is important to understand where Groupon is facing the toughest competition.
The only information provided by Groupon is that they have offered over 140 different types
of businesses, activities and services that they classify into 6 broad categories. An
understanding of the trend, geographical share by each category may be gleaned from 3rd
party aggregators like Yipit that are tracking the market at this level, with the added
advantage of being able to compare the profile by daily deal provider.


                              Global Sales by Category
                              Q1 2011 (Volume based)
                                                         Services, 11%
                 Health and Beauty,
                        31%

                                                                 Activities, 15%



                                                               Events, 11%
                        Food and Drink,
                             23%




                                                 Prepared by Martin New                  Page 7
MERCHANTS

Turning our attention to the merchant metrics, the chart below shows that the cost of
acquiring merchants has increased by almost 70% between yr end Dec 2009 and 2010, and
on average is now costing Groupon around $7,500 in sales and marketing activities per
merchant.


                        Sales Cost and Customer Acquisition vs Revenue per
                                        Featured Merchant
       $12,000                                                $11,306
                                                                                                                         $10,761
       $10,000

        $8,000                                                                                           $7,499

        $6,000
                                                     $4,455
                                                                                             3,971
        $4,000                                                                      $3,529
                           $2,767
                                        1,688
        $2,000

             $0
                                            2009                                                       2010
            Sales Cost                  Marketing                   Total Sales/Marketing                     Revenue


The average revenue per featured merchant has fluctuated over time. Of key importance is
that Groupon attract varied and high quality merchants. Another factor affecting average
merchant/deal revenue is the fact Groupon now offer multiple daily deals each day for each
city. While this provides for greater consumer options/targeting, it may dilute and weaken
sales for each featured merchant. Groupon has recently launched Groupon Getaways that
will likely have a higher average price point and may help push the average Groupon ticket
price higher.


                                       Average Revenue per Merchant
                             $15,571




                                                                        $15,238




  $18,000
                                           $13,069




  $16,000
                                                                                                                              $11,355
                                                                                                               $11,299
                                                          $10,292




  $14,000
                                                                                              $9,894
                                                                                   $9,127




  $12,000
  $10,000
   $8,000
                  $3,405




   $6,000
   $4,000
   $2,000
      $0
              March         June          Sept            Dec        March        June       Sept             Dec           March



                                                                     Prepared by Martin New                                             Page 8
It has often been reported that Groupon’s terms with merchants is a 50:50 revenue split. In
fact, the S-1 filing shows that the Cost of Revenue (amount paid to merchants) since
January 2009 has averaged out at 60:40 in favour of the merchant. When analysed by
quarter however, it appears Groupon is managing to negotiate better revenue share over
time, having moved from 67:33 to 58:42 in the last quarter. This trend may prove to be
difficult to maintain given increased competition.


                              Gross Profit to Cost of Revenue Trend
   100%

    80%
                               60%              55%      61%                         58%               60%
                       63%               67%                      61%       61%
            67%
    60%

    40%

    20%                        40%              45%      39%                         42%               40%
                       37%               33%                      39%       39%
            33%

     0%
           March      June     Sept      Dec    March    June     Sept     Dec     March             Average
                                         Gross Profit   Cost of Revenue


Operational Costs

Groupon increased marketing spend during 2010, spending $263 million versus just $4.5
million in 2009. Total operational costs in Q1 2011 out stripped revenue by 18% - which
was an improvement on the yr ending December 2010 when costs were running at 30%
above revenue. Selling, general and administration costs have also grown as a percentage
of revenue, while payment to merchants actually improved yr on yr and is currently at 58%
of revenue.


                      Operational Costs as a Percentage of Revenue
                                      130.5%                                               118.2%
          103.5%                       32.8%
                                                                                            27.8%
           24.5%                                               80.6%
                                       36.9%                                                32.3%
           14.9%                                               16.8%
                                                               9.0%
           64.1%                       60.8%                   54.8%                        58.1%


          Yr 2009                     Yr 2010                  Q1 2010                     Q1 2011

          31,548                      930,526                  35,665                      761,876

                    Cost of revenue      Marketing      Selling, General and Administrative




                                                      Prepared by Martin New                         Page 9
Groupon has hired aggressively since launch and now has over 7,000 staff around the
world. Over 75% are based outside North America. Being a sales/marketing company it is
no surprise that 50% of employees work in sales and are a critical factor in the business. As
Groupon expands into new markets, the sales force will increase in proportion.


                       Employee Head Count by function and Segment

               38%                                           36%
                                         47%

               12%                                           11%
                                         15%                                   Corporate & Operational

               50%                                           54%               Customer Service
                                         38%
                                                                               Sales

           Total                     North America       International

           7107                       1724 (24%)         5383 (76%)


In Q1 2011, the sales team in North America were far more profitable than their
International counterparts, generating nearly 4x the revenue and being responsible for
nearly 3x as many merchants.


         Revenue per Sales Employee                              Merchants per Sales Employee
                  Q1 2011                                                  Q1 2011
                       $450,676                                               31



                                                                16
     $181,307                                                                                 12
                                        $119,803



       Total         North America     International           Total     North America   International



NORTH AMERICA VS INTERNATIONAL

Groupon is currently operating in 43 countries. International operations commenced in May
2010 with the acquisition of CityDeal who offer deals in 80 cities across 16 European
countries. In the quarter ending March 2011, International operations accounted for 58% of
revenue (up from 37% in the year ending December 2010).




                                                       Prepared by Martin New                      Page 10
North America vs International Revenue
                                          ($000's)
                               448,317

                                                                      346,831
                                                                                   297,897
                 265,048




                    Yr end Dec 2010                                   3 mths end March 2011

                                         International     North America


Groupon has invested heavily on marketing with the International segment accounting for
62% of spend, representing 37% of revenue generated from International operations
(compared to 26% revenue in North America).


                                   Marketing Spend Share
                                North America vs International
                                   3 mths end March 2011


                                             26.4%
  % of revenue
                                                          37.3%
                                                                                              North America
                                                                                              International
                                                          37.8%
      % share
                                                                                62.2%




An assumption made by Groupon is that as the market matures, marketing spend will
decrease. Unfortunately the Groupon S-1 does not provide a breakdown of marketing spend
by quarter and segment to see if Groupon have started to pull back on North American
marketing spend. If not, and they continue to push into new markets, marketing expense
will continue to grow. Leveraging social media is considered an important aspect of the daily
deal space (hence often referred to as social group buying). If Groupon cut back on
marketing spend, they will need to ensure that subscribers/customers continue to share
deals using the social media tools available.




                                                         Prepared by Martin New                    Page 11
Case Studies: Chicago, Boston, Berlin and London

Although only limited data is available in the S-1 filing for each of the 4 cities, it is
interesting to make a comparative performance study of the key metrics provided.

Each city is showing consistent subscriber growth over time. London has grown quickly in
subscriber acquisitions but is falling short on converting subscribers into paying customers.
Although Berlin has the lowest subscription base of the 4 reviewed, it has still gained more
subs than either Chicago or Boston did after 1 year of activity.


                                         4 City Comparison
                                          Subscriber trend




                   June     Sept          Dec     March      June      Sept       Dec        March
         Boston    17,069   56,904      122,375   194,615   285,615   412,467   561,064     778,936
         Chicago   36,891   62,038      147,882   268,056   492,826   750,118   1,102,146   1,504,978
         Berlin                                             92,500    152,800   261,200     396,000
         London                                             159,156   423,660   993,662     1,602,968




Despite impressive acquisitions of subscribers, it is important to see how many become
paying customers. Despite London achieving 1.6 million subscribers, to date only 145,000
have purchased a Groupon (a conversion of just 9% - compared to 37%, 35% and 18% for
Chicago, Boston and Berlin respectively).


                                        4 City Comparison
                                     Cumulative Customer trend




                   June     Sept          Dec     March      June      Sept       Dec        March
         Boston    8,545    20,953       36,634   62,610    94,617    142,930   197,961     272,548
         Chicago   19,003   43,023       74,237   125,403   184,074   285,987   409,746     552,712
         Berlin                                              9,072    23,007     40,992      69,412
         London                                             10,284    34,182     75,897     144,933




                                                    Prepared by Martin New                      Page 12
4 City Comparison
                                 Customer share of Subscribers




                  June    Sept         Dec    March     June        Sept         Dec         March
        Boston    50%      37%         30%     32%      33%         35%          35%         35%
        Chicago   52%      69%         50%     47%      37%         38%          37%         37%
        Berlin                                          10%         15%          16%         18%
        London                                           6%         8%           8%           9%




While growing subscriptions is important, Groupon need to address the falling ratio of
Groupons purchased per subscriber. Both Chicago and Boston has seen a dramatic fall from
1.5 Groupons per subscriber to around 2 subscribers per Groupon sold. London has not yet
managed to grow purchase rates above 1 Groupon per 3 subscribers.


                                  4 City Comparison
                           Groupons purchased per subscriber




                  June     Sept         Dec     March      June           Sept         Dec         March
        Boston     1.5      0.7         0.5      0.5          0.5          0.5         0.5           0.5
        Chicago    1.3      1.4         1.0      1.0          0.7          0.7         0.6           0.6
        Berlin                                                0.5          0.6         0.5           0.6
        London                                                0.3          0.3         0.2           0.3




Both Boston and Chicago has seen the average price per Groupon fall over time and even
Berlin saw a drop in the last quarter. London however continues to see average Groupon
ticket price climb and has been consistently higher than the other cities analyzed. This is
likely due to the higher cost of living in London, but may also be a result of the category of
deals being offered (eg greater share of high price activities than lower ticket items like fast
food, manicure deals).




                                                Prepared by Martin New                         Page 13
4 City Comparison
                                    Average Price per Groupon




                  June     Sept          Dec     March    June      Sept     Dec      March
        Boston    $26.89   $35.00       $31.88   $30.29   $30.13   $26.40   $24.99    $23.96
        Chicago   $34.11   $35.56       $26.11   $23.93   $26.50   $24.21   $24.89    $22.62
        Berlin                                            $21.25   $26.87   $36.12    $26.61
        London                                            $34.30   $42.55   $45.42    $49.99




Although the quantity sold and revenue generated for each featured merchant is dependent
on numerous factors, both North American cities have seen average Groupon sales per
merchant fall. Berlin and London are still witnessing growth however.


                                        4 City Comparison
                                    Groupons Sold per Merchant




                  June     Sept          Dec     March    June      Sept     Dec      March
        Boston     394      533          649      871     1,316    1,541     994       851
        Chicago    700      917         1,140    1,829    2,235    2,322    1,445     1,253
        Berlin                                             436      333      411       551
        London                                             486      547      809       931




Both Chicago and Boston saw average revenue per merchant rise in the first 15 months of
activity, but each has since seen average deal revenue fall back to December 2010 levels.



                                                 Prepared by Martin New              Page 14
London is currently outpacing the other 3 (generating $46,500), but still lags behind
Chicago at its peak mid-2010 with an average deal value of $60,000.



                                      4 City Comparison
                            Average Revenue per Featured Merchant




                   June       Sept      Dec      March      June      Sept      Dec       March
        Boston    $10,606    $18,667   $20,690   $26,364   $39,655   $40,690   $24,825   $20,395
        Chicago   $23,881    $32,609   $29,771   $43,750   $59,236   $56,223   $35,957   $28,327
        Berlin                                             $9,259    $8,955    $14,851   $14,663
        London                                             $16,667   $23,276   $36,735   $46,528




                                                 Prepared by Martin New                  Page 15
Prepared by Martin New   Page 16
Some outstanding questions

     Email Subscription churn/open rates?
             With a low conversion rate, it would be beneficial to know how many people
             are actually opening the emails Groupon send out each day. Also of
             importance is to get a fix on the churn (unsubscribes) that is occurring over
             time.

     What is the trend in fraud/refund rates?
             Groupon currently hold 4% of revenue to cover fraud and refund. The
             question is: how does this match up with actual fraud/refund rates and how is
             it trending over time.

     Revenue by deal type?
            Given the wide value and volume splits that occur between different daily deal
            categories, plus the growth in niche vertical deal sites, an understanding of
            Groupon’s deal mix would give better insight into the company’s business
            model.

     Voucher redemption rates and timeline of redemption?
            Since Groupon’s international merchant payment policy is to pay merchants
            upon coupon redemption, any change in either the breakage or time between
            customers purchasing and redeeming Groupons will affect cash flow.
            Additionally, should legislation extend legal redemption terms on coupons.

     Repeat customer trends
            Is Groupon generally appealing to discount hunters. If so, merchants may be
            less interested in running daily deals and Groupon customers will likely be
            less loyal to a single Daily Deal site.

     Proportion and trend toward national deals?
             Groupon has stated that it uses national deals to help build subscriber base
             and these deals are likely to be less profitable given the lower margin charged
             to merchants.

     What is the share    of mentions on Facebook, Twitter etc per subscriber?
             Part of the   daily deal concept is having consumers share deals with friends,
             family and    work colleagues – hence the term social group buying. Question is,
             are people    still sharing deals at the same rate?




                                         CONTACT




                                              Prepared by Martin New                Page 17

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Groupon's Rapid Growth and Key Metrics Analysis

  • 1. Analysis of the key operating metrics published in the Groupon S-1 Filing Report Author: Martin New Prepared: 19/07/2011 CONTACT Prepared by Martin New Page 1
  • 2. Summary of Key Numbers:  Subscribers: 83.1 million - up from 3.4 million in March 2010 (2,320%)  Customers: 15.8 million – up from 874,000 in March 2010 (1,708%)  Subscriber acquisition cost: 30$  Customer conversion rate: 19%  Featured Merchants: total 125,765 : 56,781 in Q1 2011 – up from 2,903 in Q1 2010 (1856%)  Merchant pool (IE deals in pipeline): Currently 40,000 (up from 15 in March 2009)  Groupons sold: 60 million total. 28.1 million in Q1 2011 – up from 1.8 million in Q1 2010 (1,496%)  Revenue: $713 million in Yr end Dec 2010 – up from $30.5 million in 2010 (2,241%)  Average Revenue per merchant: $11,000  Average Groupon price: $23  Average revenue per Subscriber: $14.10 in 2010 vs $7.76 in Q1 2011  Groupon:Merchant Revenue split: currently at 60:40 in Merchants favor  Gross Profit: $280 million in Yr end Dec 2011 – up from $11 million in 2010 (2,462%)  Net Income/Loss from operations: Loss of $114 million in Q1 2011 vs income of $8.7 million in Q1 2010  Marketing Spend: Grew by +5,000% in Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010 ($208 million)  Selling, Gen and Admin: Grew by 2,300% in Q1 2011 vs Q1 2010 ($179 million)  Total operating expenses: accounted for 118% of revenue in Q1 2011 vs 80% in Q1 2010 ($762 million in Q1 2011 – up 2,000%)  Employees: 7,107 (76% International)  Revenue per sales employee: North America - $450,000 vs International - $120,000  Geographical coverage: 43 countries and 175 North American Markets  International vs North America: International operations account for 58% of revenue Prepared by Martin New Page 2
  • 3. CHART INDEX Chart Page Groupon Revenue vs Gross Profit Trend 4 Subscribers, Cummulative Customers vs Groupons sold 4 Quarterly growth of Groupon Subscribers and Customers 5 Percent of Subscribers purchasing Groupons 5 Groupons Purchased by Customer and Subscriber 6 Acquisition Cost vs Revenue per subscriber 6 Average Groupon Deal Price 7 Global Sales by Category Q1 2011 (Volume based) 7 Sales Cost and Customer Acquisition vs Revenue per Featured Merchant 8 Average Revenue per Merchant 8 Gross Profit to Cost of Revenue Trend 9 Operational Costs as a Percentage of Revenue 9 Employee Head Count by function and Segment 10 Revenue per Sales Employee Q1 2011 (North America vs International) 10 Merchants per Sales Employee Q1 2011 (North America vs International) 11 North America vs International Revenue 11 Marketing Spend Share North America vs International 11 4 City Comparison: Subscriber trend 12 4 City Comparison: Cumulative Customer trend 12 4 City Comparison: Customer share of Subscribers 13 4 City Comparison: Groupons purchased per subscriber 13 4 City Comparison: Average Price per Groupon 14 4 City Comparison: Groupons Sold per Merchant 14 4 City Comparison: Average Revenue per Featured Merchant 15 Prepared by Martin New Page 3
  • 4. Revenue and Gross Profit Groupon has experience tremendous revenue growth within the 30 months of trading. In the first quarter of 2011, the company generated nearly $655 million in sales (up from $44 million a year earlier. Gross profit in the last quarter stood at $270 million. Groupon classify Gross Profit as Revenue (receipts from Groupon sales) less Cost of Revenue (payment made to merchants). 644,728 Groupon Revenue vs Gross Profit Trend 700,000 ($000's) 600,000 396,600 500,000 270,000 400,000 185,231 300,000 153,309 87,298 200,000 72,287 44,236 34,373 19,985 16,920 9,998 5,641 3,996 3,301 100,000 1,209 252 83 0 March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Revenue Gross Profit Subscriber and Customer Base Groupon Key Metrics Subscribers, Cumulative Customers vs Groupons sold Acquired 1.9 million subscribers May 2010 with CityDeal acquisition March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Subscribers 152,203 627,051 1,807,278 3,434,610 10,445,521 21,369,608 50,583,805 83,100,006 Cummulative Customers 6,840 43,014 153,471 375,099 874,017 2,379,611 4,623,267 9,031,807 15,803,995 Groupons Sold 27,221 116,231 340,471 764,869 1,760,398 4,062,458 8,237,733 16,235,481 28,094,743 Prepared by Martin New Page 4
  • 5. As at March 2011, Groupon had acquired 83.1 million subscribers, of which 15.8 million had purchased 1 or more Groupons (19% conversion). Since launch, 60 million Groupons have been sold. Quarterly growth of Groupon Subscribers and Customers 32,516 29,214 35,000 Thousands 30,000 25,000 20,000 10,924 15,000 7,011 6,772 10,000 4,409 2,244 1,627 1,506 1,180 5,000 499 475 222 152 110 36 7 0 March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Additional Subscribers Additional customers When broken down by quarter, Groupon saw subscribers increase by an impressive 18.3 million in Q4 2010 (167% growth), vs a growth in additional unique subscribers of 2.2 million (96% growth). The chart below shows the gradual decline in the rate of conversion of total subscribers. Percent of Subscribers purchasing Groupons 28.3% 29.0% 27.0% 25.4% 24.5% 25.0% 22.8% 23.0% 21.6% 20.8% 21.0% 19.0% 19.0% 17.9% 17.0% 15.0% June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Note: The conversion rate is likely to be less than shown since Groupon do not include “guest” purchases in their subscriber numbers. Prepared by Martin New Page 5
  • 6. Groupon Key Metrics Groupons Purchased by Customer and Subscriber 4.5 4.0 4 3.5 3 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0 March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Groupons per subscriber ratio Groupons per Customer ratio The average number of Groupons purchased per subscriber has held steady at around 2 over the last 18 months. Average acquisition cost per new customer is 30$ (and rising) vs revenue of 14$ per subscriber (and falling). This is particularly high for non-recurring customers. Netflix SAC (Subscriber Acquisition Cost) for example is now at 14$. Acquisition Cost vs Revenue per subscriber $35.00 $30.40 $30.74 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $16.86 $14.10 $12.88 $15.00 $12.12 $10.00 $7.99 $7.76 $5.00 $0.00 2009 2010 2010 2011 Yr end Dec 3mth End March Acquisition cost per new Customer Revenue per Subscriber Prepared by Martin New Page 6
  • 7. Groupons To-date Groupon has sold around 60 million Groupons for a total revenue of almost $1.4 Billion. The average price of a Groupon has held steady at around 23$ for the past 18 mths. Average Groupon Deal Price $35 $29 $28 $30 $25 $24 $25 $22 $22 $23 $21 $20 $15 $9 $10 $5 $0 March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Something that was not covered in the S-1 filing was the share by deal type that Groupon has been offering. As competition heats up and deal sites start to target specific niche verticals, it is important to understand where Groupon is facing the toughest competition. The only information provided by Groupon is that they have offered over 140 different types of businesses, activities and services that they classify into 6 broad categories. An understanding of the trend, geographical share by each category may be gleaned from 3rd party aggregators like Yipit that are tracking the market at this level, with the added advantage of being able to compare the profile by daily deal provider. Global Sales by Category Q1 2011 (Volume based) Services, 11% Health and Beauty, 31% Activities, 15% Events, 11% Food and Drink, 23% Prepared by Martin New Page 7
  • 8. MERCHANTS Turning our attention to the merchant metrics, the chart below shows that the cost of acquiring merchants has increased by almost 70% between yr end Dec 2009 and 2010, and on average is now costing Groupon around $7,500 in sales and marketing activities per merchant. Sales Cost and Customer Acquisition vs Revenue per Featured Merchant $12,000 $11,306 $10,761 $10,000 $8,000 $7,499 $6,000 $4,455 3,971 $4,000 $3,529 $2,767 1,688 $2,000 $0 2009 2010 Sales Cost Marketing Total Sales/Marketing Revenue The average revenue per featured merchant has fluctuated over time. Of key importance is that Groupon attract varied and high quality merchants. Another factor affecting average merchant/deal revenue is the fact Groupon now offer multiple daily deals each day for each city. While this provides for greater consumer options/targeting, it may dilute and weaken sales for each featured merchant. Groupon has recently launched Groupon Getaways that will likely have a higher average price point and may help push the average Groupon ticket price higher. Average Revenue per Merchant $15,571 $15,238 $18,000 $13,069 $16,000 $11,355 $11,299 $10,292 $14,000 $9,894 $9,127 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $3,405 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Prepared by Martin New Page 8
  • 9. It has often been reported that Groupon’s terms with merchants is a 50:50 revenue split. In fact, the S-1 filing shows that the Cost of Revenue (amount paid to merchants) since January 2009 has averaged out at 60:40 in favour of the merchant. When analysed by quarter however, it appears Groupon is managing to negotiate better revenue share over time, having moved from 67:33 to 58:42 in the last quarter. This trend may prove to be difficult to maintain given increased competition. Gross Profit to Cost of Revenue Trend 100% 80% 60% 55% 61% 58% 60% 63% 67% 61% 61% 67% 60% 40% 20% 40% 45% 39% 42% 40% 37% 33% 39% 39% 33% 0% March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Average Gross Profit Cost of Revenue Operational Costs Groupon increased marketing spend during 2010, spending $263 million versus just $4.5 million in 2009. Total operational costs in Q1 2011 out stripped revenue by 18% - which was an improvement on the yr ending December 2010 when costs were running at 30% above revenue. Selling, general and administration costs have also grown as a percentage of revenue, while payment to merchants actually improved yr on yr and is currently at 58% of revenue. Operational Costs as a Percentage of Revenue 130.5% 118.2% 103.5% 32.8% 27.8% 24.5% 80.6% 36.9% 32.3% 14.9% 16.8% 9.0% 64.1% 60.8% 54.8% 58.1% Yr 2009 Yr 2010 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 31,548 930,526 35,665 761,876 Cost of revenue Marketing Selling, General and Administrative Prepared by Martin New Page 9
  • 10. Groupon has hired aggressively since launch and now has over 7,000 staff around the world. Over 75% are based outside North America. Being a sales/marketing company it is no surprise that 50% of employees work in sales and are a critical factor in the business. As Groupon expands into new markets, the sales force will increase in proportion. Employee Head Count by function and Segment 38% 36% 47% 12% 11% 15% Corporate & Operational 50% 54% Customer Service 38% Sales Total North America International 7107 1724 (24%) 5383 (76%) In Q1 2011, the sales team in North America were far more profitable than their International counterparts, generating nearly 4x the revenue and being responsible for nearly 3x as many merchants. Revenue per Sales Employee Merchants per Sales Employee Q1 2011 Q1 2011 $450,676 31 16 $181,307 12 $119,803 Total North America International Total North America International NORTH AMERICA VS INTERNATIONAL Groupon is currently operating in 43 countries. International operations commenced in May 2010 with the acquisition of CityDeal who offer deals in 80 cities across 16 European countries. In the quarter ending March 2011, International operations accounted for 58% of revenue (up from 37% in the year ending December 2010). Prepared by Martin New Page 10
  • 11. North America vs International Revenue ($000's) 448,317 346,831 297,897 265,048 Yr end Dec 2010 3 mths end March 2011 International North America Groupon has invested heavily on marketing with the International segment accounting for 62% of spend, representing 37% of revenue generated from International operations (compared to 26% revenue in North America). Marketing Spend Share North America vs International 3 mths end March 2011 26.4% % of revenue 37.3% North America International 37.8% % share 62.2% An assumption made by Groupon is that as the market matures, marketing spend will decrease. Unfortunately the Groupon S-1 does not provide a breakdown of marketing spend by quarter and segment to see if Groupon have started to pull back on North American marketing spend. If not, and they continue to push into new markets, marketing expense will continue to grow. Leveraging social media is considered an important aspect of the daily deal space (hence often referred to as social group buying). If Groupon cut back on marketing spend, they will need to ensure that subscribers/customers continue to share deals using the social media tools available. Prepared by Martin New Page 11
  • 12. Case Studies: Chicago, Boston, Berlin and London Although only limited data is available in the S-1 filing for each of the 4 cities, it is interesting to make a comparative performance study of the key metrics provided. Each city is showing consistent subscriber growth over time. London has grown quickly in subscriber acquisitions but is falling short on converting subscribers into paying customers. Although Berlin has the lowest subscription base of the 4 reviewed, it has still gained more subs than either Chicago or Boston did after 1 year of activity. 4 City Comparison Subscriber trend June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Boston 17,069 56,904 122,375 194,615 285,615 412,467 561,064 778,936 Chicago 36,891 62,038 147,882 268,056 492,826 750,118 1,102,146 1,504,978 Berlin 92,500 152,800 261,200 396,000 London 159,156 423,660 993,662 1,602,968 Despite impressive acquisitions of subscribers, it is important to see how many become paying customers. Despite London achieving 1.6 million subscribers, to date only 145,000 have purchased a Groupon (a conversion of just 9% - compared to 37%, 35% and 18% for Chicago, Boston and Berlin respectively). 4 City Comparison Cumulative Customer trend June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Boston 8,545 20,953 36,634 62,610 94,617 142,930 197,961 272,548 Chicago 19,003 43,023 74,237 125,403 184,074 285,987 409,746 552,712 Berlin 9,072 23,007 40,992 69,412 London 10,284 34,182 75,897 144,933 Prepared by Martin New Page 12
  • 13. 4 City Comparison Customer share of Subscribers June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Boston 50% 37% 30% 32% 33% 35% 35% 35% Chicago 52% 69% 50% 47% 37% 38% 37% 37% Berlin 10% 15% 16% 18% London 6% 8% 8% 9% While growing subscriptions is important, Groupon need to address the falling ratio of Groupons purchased per subscriber. Both Chicago and Boston has seen a dramatic fall from 1.5 Groupons per subscriber to around 2 subscribers per Groupon sold. London has not yet managed to grow purchase rates above 1 Groupon per 3 subscribers. 4 City Comparison Groupons purchased per subscriber June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Boston 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Chicago 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 Berlin 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 London 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 Both Boston and Chicago has seen the average price per Groupon fall over time and even Berlin saw a drop in the last quarter. London however continues to see average Groupon ticket price climb and has been consistently higher than the other cities analyzed. This is likely due to the higher cost of living in London, but may also be a result of the category of deals being offered (eg greater share of high price activities than lower ticket items like fast food, manicure deals). Prepared by Martin New Page 13
  • 14. 4 City Comparison Average Price per Groupon June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Boston $26.89 $35.00 $31.88 $30.29 $30.13 $26.40 $24.99 $23.96 Chicago $34.11 $35.56 $26.11 $23.93 $26.50 $24.21 $24.89 $22.62 Berlin $21.25 $26.87 $36.12 $26.61 London $34.30 $42.55 $45.42 $49.99 Although the quantity sold and revenue generated for each featured merchant is dependent on numerous factors, both North American cities have seen average Groupon sales per merchant fall. Berlin and London are still witnessing growth however. 4 City Comparison Groupons Sold per Merchant June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Boston 394 533 649 871 1,316 1,541 994 851 Chicago 700 917 1,140 1,829 2,235 2,322 1,445 1,253 Berlin 436 333 411 551 London 486 547 809 931 Both Chicago and Boston saw average revenue per merchant rise in the first 15 months of activity, but each has since seen average deal revenue fall back to December 2010 levels. Prepared by Martin New Page 14
  • 15. London is currently outpacing the other 3 (generating $46,500), but still lags behind Chicago at its peak mid-2010 with an average deal value of $60,000. 4 City Comparison Average Revenue per Featured Merchant June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Boston $10,606 $18,667 $20,690 $26,364 $39,655 $40,690 $24,825 $20,395 Chicago $23,881 $32,609 $29,771 $43,750 $59,236 $56,223 $35,957 $28,327 Berlin $9,259 $8,955 $14,851 $14,663 London $16,667 $23,276 $36,735 $46,528 Prepared by Martin New Page 15
  • 16. Prepared by Martin New Page 16
  • 17. Some outstanding questions  Email Subscription churn/open rates? With a low conversion rate, it would be beneficial to know how many people are actually opening the emails Groupon send out each day. Also of importance is to get a fix on the churn (unsubscribes) that is occurring over time.  What is the trend in fraud/refund rates? Groupon currently hold 4% of revenue to cover fraud and refund. The question is: how does this match up with actual fraud/refund rates and how is it trending over time.  Revenue by deal type? Given the wide value and volume splits that occur between different daily deal categories, plus the growth in niche vertical deal sites, an understanding of Groupon’s deal mix would give better insight into the company’s business model.  Voucher redemption rates and timeline of redemption? Since Groupon’s international merchant payment policy is to pay merchants upon coupon redemption, any change in either the breakage or time between customers purchasing and redeeming Groupons will affect cash flow. Additionally, should legislation extend legal redemption terms on coupons.  Repeat customer trends Is Groupon generally appealing to discount hunters. If so, merchants may be less interested in running daily deals and Groupon customers will likely be less loyal to a single Daily Deal site.  Proportion and trend toward national deals? Groupon has stated that it uses national deals to help build subscriber base and these deals are likely to be less profitable given the lower margin charged to merchants.  What is the share of mentions on Facebook, Twitter etc per subscriber? Part of the daily deal concept is having consumers share deals with friends, family and work colleagues – hence the term social group buying. Question is, are people still sharing deals at the same rate? CONTACT Prepared by Martin New Page 17