1. Get more info on this report!
Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2009-2010
May 15, 2009
Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2009-2010 from Simba Information is the premier
source for expert analysis on the highly competitive $8.3 billion PreK-12 school market,
where new business dynamics are changing the demand for traditional print and digital
curriculum products in a market climate that continues to stress raising student
achievement to keep students competitive in 21st century skills.
A new administration in Washington, D.C. and an economy in turmoil require the most
up-to-date business information and market trends for a complete view of the U.S.
school market—all available from Simba Information in a single-source format in this
completely updated report.
Use Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2009-2010 to evaluate the trends affecting the
industry, assess market opportunities, benchmark performance among market leaders,
and develop a realistic, effective strategy for maximum short- and long-term growth.
Topics include:
Market size by media segment: textbooks, courseware, supplemental materials,
tests, manipulatives, magazines, video and trade books.
Drivers of segment growth
Impact of emergent technologies
Simba Information’s exclusive Textbook Adoption Scorecard and outlook
Leading publishers by market segment
Market landscape changes in policy, enrollment and funding
The impact of key mergers and acquisitions
Market segment projections through 2012
Detailed company profiles of leading instructional materials providers
Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2009-2010 is an essential market intelligence tool
for publishers, technology providers, editors, marketing, business development, sales
and investment professionals who need to understand the business strategies currently
driving the educational publishing industry.
2. Additional Information
Stamford, Conn. - May 14, 2009 - The school market will continue to be challenging in
2009 for publishers and providers of instructional materials, with the market for
educational materials projected to decline 4.3% to $8.3 billion, according to new
research from media industry forecast and analysis firm Simba Information.
Simba’s most recent strategic market report, Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2009-
2010, examines the challenging dynamics of the school market, providing insight and
key guideposts for navigating uncertain market waters, including:
Student enrollment projections and geographical patterns;
Federal funding opportunities;
State and local spending outlooks;
Market conditions for digital products and services, textbooks and tests.
“Simba believes the federal stimulus funding and budget allocations will inject much-
needed help to cash-strapped school districts that will thaw frozen spending on
educational materials, but the full effect of this boost is unlikely to be realized until 2010
or even 2011,” said Kathy Mickey, senior analyst and managing editor of the Education
Group at Simba. “The slowdown in the national economy shut down most school
spending on instructional materials in mid-2008, resulting in an estimated 2.7% industry
decline to $8.6 billion in 2008.”
The Simba school publishing market report has become an annual benchmark for
taking the pulse of the market for instructional materials, and the most recent report
provides new insight into key market segments—textbooks, courseware and other
supplemental materials.
In Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2009-2010, Simba also provides exclusive
analysis of how leading publishers and providers of instructional materials and services
are positioning themselves to take advantage of the opportunities in the highly
competitive market—from textbook adoptions to intervention, special education and
whole school improvement.
Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2009-2010 contains detailed profiles of 20 publishers
that play a leading role in supplying instructional materials to schools. Additional
information about the report, and how to order it, can be found at
www.simbainformation.com.
3. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Methodology
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Industry Size and Structure
Introduction
Tough Market Slows Growth Over Five Years
Instructional Materials Decline in 2008; Improvement Uncertain in 2009
Textbooks Maintain Position as Largest Segment
Print Supplements Show Weakness
Growth for State Tests Levels Off
Courseware Generates Growth, Modular Software Slips
Appeal of Manipulatives Persists
Books, Video and Periodicals
Electronic Media Continues to Advance
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Tops Simba’s PreK-12 Publisher Index
HMH, Pearson & McGraw-Hill Dominate PreK-12 Publishing
Carnegie Sees Greatest Growth; LeapFrog Slides the Most
Operating Performance Captures the Spotlight
Expectations for Revenue Growth
M&A Activity Constricts in Scope
Indian Firms Penetrate U.S. K-12 from Textbooks to Technology
Exit Strategies in K-12
Quasi-Sales Through Distribution Agreements
Some Optimism for M&A in 2009
Table 1.1: U.S. Elementary & Secondary Education At-a-Glance
Table 1.2: 5-Year Sales Trends, 2003-2008
Table 1.3: Sales of Print and Electronic Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School
Market, 2007-2009P
4. Table 1.4: Market Share of Media in U.S. Classrooms, 2009P
Table 1.5: Simba Information’s PreK-12 U.S. Publisher Index, 2007-2009P
Table 1.6: PreK-12 Mergers & Acquisitions Index, Jan. 2008-April 2009
Chapter 2: Enrollment and Demographics
Introduction
Public Enrollment vs. Private Enrollment
Fastest-Growing States for K-12 Enrollment
Fastest-Growing Counties for K-12 Enrollment
Growth Rates Vary Across Largest Districts
Schools Growing More Diverse
More Special Needs Students in Schools
Homeschool Enrollment Growing
Record-Breaking Births
Birth Rate Projected to Fall
Table 2.1: Total Public/Private Projected PreK-12 Enrollment, 2008-2017P
Table 2.2: Enrollment in Public and Private Schools, 2008-2017P
Table 2.3: States Experiencing Largest Enrollment Increases, 2008-2009 vs.
2007-2008
Table 2.4: 25 Counties with Largest Enrollment Increases, 2008-2009
Table 2.5: 25 Districts with Highest Number LEP/ELL Students
Table 2.6: 25 Districts with Highest Number IEP Students
Table 2.7: States Experiencing Largest Birth Increases
Table 2.8: Projected Number of Annual Births, 2008-2019
Chapter 3: Funding
Introduction
Title I Receives an Additional $10 Billion
School Improvement Grants
Tapping Special Education Funding
Technology Funding on the Rise
5. Longitudinal Data Systems to Expand
Funding at the State Level
Clouds in Large Adoption States
Impact of Stimulus Varies Across States
Average Per-Pupil Spending on Instructional Materials Is $257
Looking to Fiscal 2010
Table 3.1: Federal Education Appropriations, Fiscal 2008-2009P
Table 3.2: U.S. Dept. of Education Title I State Grant Allocations, 2008-2009
Table 3.3: School Improvement Grant Allocations, 2008-2009
Table 3.4: IDEA Funding
Table 3.5: Educational Technology Grant Allocations, 2008-2009
Table 3.6: Statewide Data System Grants, 2009
Table 3.7: Fiscal 2010 State Budget Outlook
Table 3.8: State Stabilization Funds
Table 3.9: Instructional Materials Expenditure by State
Chapter 4: Textbooks and Adoptions
Introduction
Textbook Sales Decline in 2008
Reading and Mathematics Lead Disciplines in Sales
Textbook Market: Adoption States and Open Territories
Elementary Sales Outpace Secondary Sales in 2007
2008 Should Have Been a Contender
Harcourt, Houghton Mifflin Combine to Lead 2008 Publisher Scorecard
Pearson, McGraw-Hill Titles Dominate K-5 Best-Sellers; HMH in 6-8
Forecast: Adoption Market Declines in 2009
California Reading
Language Arts in Florida
Math in Five States
6. Early Purchasing in 2009
2010 and Beyond
Texas OKs Science Standards
Table 4.1: Textbook Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2007
vs. 2008
Table 4.2: Top 10 Disciplines for Elementary Textbooks, 2007
Table 4.3: Top 10 Disciplines for Secondary Textbooks, 2007
Table 4.4: Basal Sales, Adoption States vs. Open Territories, 2002-2007
Table 4.5: Elementary and Secondary Textbook Sales, Top 10 States, 2007
Table 4.6: Textbook Adoption States
Table 4.7: Simba Information’s Adoption Scorecard, 2008
Table 4.8: Simba’s Best-Selling Textbook Series, 2008
Table 4.9: California’s Adopted Reading K-8 Materials, 2009
Table 4.10: Publishers in Florida’s 2009 Language Arts, Literature and Music
Adoption
Chapter 5: Supplementary Materials
Introduction
Electronic Supplementals More Attractive
Print Supplementals Still a Substantial Market
Trade Books and Magazines Maintain Niche
Science Drives Manipulative Market
Supplemental Publishers Have Ups and Downs
Deciding on Supplementals
Future of Supplementals
Table 5.1: Sales of Supplemental Instructional Materials to the U.S. PreK-12
School Market, 2007-2009P
Table 5.2: Simba Information’s Supplemental Publisher Index, 2007-2009P
Chapter 6: Trends and Forecasts
Common Standards and State Tests
Digital Momentum
7. Tapping Open Resources
An Uncertain Market
Table 6.1: Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S.
Classrooms, 2008-2012P
Company Profiles
American Education Corp.
Carnegie Learning
Curriculum Associates
EMC/Paradigm
Goodheart-Willcox
Haights Cross Communications
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Inspiration Software
LeapFrog
McGraw-Hill Education
Pearson Education
Peoples Education
Plato Learning
The Princeton Review
Questar Assessment
RD School & Educational Services
Renaissance Learning
Scholastic
School Specialty
Scientific Learning
Voyager Learning
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