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Technology Needs for Advancing
    Wind Power Generation

           Stan T. Rosinski
     Program Manager, Renewables
         Wind Power Summit
           February 25, 2013
Three Key Aspects of EPRI

          Independent
          Objective, scientifically based
          results address reliability,
                                                                              Independent
          efficiency, affordability, health,
          safety and the environment
          Nonprofit                                                                         Nonprofit
          Chartered to serve the public
          benefit
                                                                          Collaborative
          Collaborative
          Bring together scientists,
          engineers, academic
          researchers, industry experts


© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   2
EPRI’s R&D Portfolio
                                Power Delivery and Utilization            Generation
                                • Transmission Lines and                  • Advanced Coal Plants, Carbon
                                  Substations                               Capture and Storage
                                • Grid Operations and Planning            • Combustion Turbines
                                • Distribution                            • Environmental Controls
                                • Energy Utilization                      • Major Component Reliability
                                • Cross-Cutting Technologies              • Materials and Chemistry
                                                                          • Operations and Maintenance
                                Nuclear                                   • Power Plant Water Management
                                • Advanced Nuclear Technology
                                • Chemistry, Low-Level Waste, and         Environment and
                                  Radiation Management                    Renewable Energy
                                • Equipment Reliability                   • Air Quality
                                • Fuel Reliability                        • Energy and Environmental
                                • Long-Term Operations                      Analysis
                                • Materials Degradation/Aging             • Land and Groundwater
                                • Nondestructive Evaluation and           • Occupational Health and Safety
                                  Material Characterization               • Renewable Energy
                                • Risk and Safety Management              • T&D Environmental Issues
                                • Used Fuel and High-level Waste          • Water and Ecosystems
                                  Management

© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   3
Key Strategic Technical Issues
                              Smart                                    Energy        Long-Term
                               Grid                                   Efficiency     Operations




       Renewable Resources                                            Near Zero    Water Resource
          and Integration                                             Emissions     Management




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.        4
Renewable Resources and Integration

          Many questions remain regarding renewable costs,
          performance, impact and integration

          Key Challenges
          • Generation technology:
            cost and performance
          • Grid reliability:
            Operating the system with
            variable resources
          • Environmental impacts



© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   5
Drivers for Wind Research

• Reduce cost of wind (capital, LCOE),
  optimize performance and expand
  installed capacity
• Accelerate grid parity w/o subsidies
• Address wind resources variability and
  grid penetration issues
• Innovative cost-effective wind energy
  storage options
• Off-shore wind deployment challenges
• Minimize/mitigate environmental impact



© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   6
Wind R&D Roadmap

                                     Issue                                               R&D Area
     Wind Turbine Components                                          Blade design enhancements
                                                                      Improve drive train reliability
                                                                      Improved materials/designs for taller towers
                                                                      (100-175m)
     Integrated Turbine Systems                                       New large-scale systems needed
     (large-scale; >6MW)
     Energy Storage                                                   Integrating wind energy with on-site storage




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.           7
Wind R&D Roadmap

                                    Issue                                               R&D Area
   Offshore Wind                                                      Foundations

                                                                      Components suited to offshore environment
                                                                      (blades, rotors, drive-train)
                                                                      Methodologies to identify/ evaluate critical
                                                                      risks
   Wind Forecasting                                                   Improved hour-ahead and day-ahead
                                                                      forecasting
                                                                      Seconds/minutes forecasting




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.           8
Wind R&D Roadmap

                                    Issue                                               R&D Area
   Condition Monitoring                                               Improved on-line monitoring, data collection/
                                                                      mining and analysis
                                                                      Non-destructive evaluation techniques
   Performance Optimization                                           Adaptive control techniques for diverse
                                                                      terrains/models
                                                                      Enhanced reliability-centered maintenance
                                                                      (RCM) approaches
                                                                      Wind turbine database
                                                                      Life extension




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.          9
EPRI Wind Energy Program



             Identify, evaluate and conduct targeted R&D on wind technologies with
                          high potential to address critical industry issues



        Wind Power Technology                                                                  Model Development
                                                                       Wind Power Asset                             Wind Environmental
           Assessment and                                                                        and Validation
                                                                        Management                                        Issues
            Development




                                                                      • Ground-based                               • Curtailment for
                                                                        inspection                                   Bat Protection
                                                                      • Life extension


© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.                       10
Ground Based Inspection of Wind Turbine Blades
   Drivers
    • Blade failure – overall reliability
    • Blade manufacturing improving – but defects do exist
       – Bond issues (lack of, inadequate)
       – Delaminations, wrinkles
    • Blades environmentally degrade, fatigue
    • Blade replacement costly




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   11
Approach

   • Develop an NDE and engineering tool integrating:
      – Advanced NDE technology for detection of flaws
         • Preservice and in-service
         • Ground-based
      – Flaw analysis processes
         • Effect of flaws
         • Remaining blade life




            Proactive Wind Turbine Blade Life and Asset Management Tool


© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   12
Laser Shearography

   • Detection of flaws in complex composite materials in
     aeronautical and aerospace industry (field or factory)
   • Uses laser field and interferometer to detect flaws in part,
     under loading (heat, pressure, vacuum)




                       Courtesy of Laser Technology Inc.
© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   13
Laser Shearography
      Testing at National Renewable Energy Laboratory




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   14
Visual Examination versus Laser Shearography
   Lightning Damage




                                                               Images Courtesy of Laser Technology Inc.


 Left photo - Visual examination of lightning damage to wind turbine blade
 Right photo - Laser shearogram of the same area indicating a 25 inch (635 mm)
 delamination extending from lightning strike.



© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.                  15
Infrared Thermography

   • Enhance ground based inspection technology
   • High-speed inspection of blades during operation
      – Cost effective
      – Large area inspection
   • Infrared Thermography
      – Fast ‘screening’ scan
      – Identify areas for follow-up
        inspection
      – Simultaneous imaging of
        blade serial number            Thermal Image of 15m segment of
                                                                           2 MW rotating blade – No Indications
                                                                           Image – Courtesy of Digital Wind Systems




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   16
Laser Shearography (top) vs Thermography Imaging (bottom)
                     Defects are Waves in the Carbon Fiber Spar Cap – HP Side (top of blade in fixture)
          Distance from Root: 6 meters                                                    5 meters   3.5 meters




                                                                      Blade failed at this defect




    Images – Courtesy of Digital Wind Systems                           Images are not to scale.
© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.               17
Imaged Defect due to Spar Cap Fiber Wave after 2.2 Million Fatigue
    Cycles, Nominal Turbine Blade Operation Stress Load
                                                                      Fatigue crack imaged 100 ft. from blade




                                 Image – Courtesy of Digital Wind Systems

© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.                 18
Ground-Based Inspection Summary
      Wide Field Thermography of 1.6 MW Blades

                             Two test types for fast
                             survey and detailed imaging


                                                                                                                  Tower weld
                                                                                                                remains slightly
                                                                                                                warmer, heated
                                                                                                                  by sunlight
                                                                                                                during daylight.




                              Actual field tests have small
                              field of view to image flaws

                                                                      Image – Courtesy of Digital Wind System
© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.                     19
Wind Power and Bats
   Issue and Challenge

   • Financially important to Agriculture
      – Pollination
      – Insect control
   • Important in the ecosystem
      – Very slow reproductive rate
        (1-2 young/year)
      – High attrition rate of young
   • Mortality rate increasing in the US/Canada
      – White Nose Syndrome
      – Expanding area
   • Most mortality at wind sites occurs June through October

© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   20
Range of Federally Endangered Bat
        (and bat species proposed to be listed in 2013)



                                                                           Striped – Indiana bats
                                                                           (Endangered)
                                                                           Light purple = Eastern Small-
                                                                           Footed (proposed for listing)
                                                                           Dark purple = Northern Long-
                                                                           Eared (proposed for listing)
                                                                           Gray = Little Brown Bats
                                                                           (proposed for listing)



                                                                           White-nose Fungus is
                                                                           driving listing consideration


     Courtesy of We Energies


© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   21
Options to Miminize Fatalaties

   • Operation of turbines must be changed during bat migration (June-
     October)
      – Increase cut-in speed
         • Turbines begin to rotate only
           at higher wind speeds
         • Generation lost during periods
           of low wind
      – Shut off turbines for the entire
        night
         • Generation lost every evening
      – Restrict operation only during periods of bat activity (preferred)




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   22
Smart Curtailment
   Acoustic-Based Detection




                                                                           ReBAT system courtesy of
                                                                           Normandeau Associates




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   23
Automated Wind Turbine Curtailment
   Scope

   • Acoustic monitoring of bat activity at nacelle
   • Post-construction mortality survey
   • Develop predictive bat mortality model
   • Develop Bat Detection Shutdown System

   • Monitor 4 nacelles




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   24
Automated Wind Turbine Curtailment
   Summary

   • Reducing bat mortality through curtailments is here
      – Potentially widespread
      – Curtailing only when necessary is preferred
   • Proactive approach
   • Minimizes generation loss




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   25
Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

   For additional information:

   Stan Rosinski
   Program Manager, Renewables
   Electric Power Research Institute
   srosinski@epri.com
   704-595-2621




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   26
Additional Information
Extending Wind Turbine Life

      • Reliability
        Challenges
      • Safety
        Challenges




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   28
End of Design Life Options

                      Combination of proactive
                           approaches

        Run beyond design life but take




                                                                           Higher return
      measures to ensure low risk of failure                                               Run blindly beyond design life

           Take measures to reduce fatigue
                   accumulation


                                         Lower risk                                                Higher risk

                                                                       Lower return

                  Decommission upon reaching
                       end of design life




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   29
Proactive Life Extension Methods
   Examples

      • Operations and maintenance (O&M) strategies including modifying
        operations
      • Mining O&M records to understand and predict component reliability
      • Load measurement to track fatigue accumulation or to control the
        turbine better
      • Flight Leader Concept: selecting turbines to serve as a sample
        subset of a fleet
      • Targeted inspections to detect incipient failures and ensure
        structural integrity beyond design life
      • Turbine refurbishment or retrofit
      • Advanced controls to reduce fatigue loading




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   30
Engineering/Economic Assessment
   Three Scenarios

   • Scenario 1 – Targeted Inspections
      – Regular inspections to monitor risk of failure:
         • Foundations - 5 year interval
         • Blades/selected tower welds/hubs – annually
      – Continued operation
   • Scenario 2 – Modified Operation
      – Reduce operation (turbine de-rate) during high loading
        events
         • Reduce fatigue accumulation
         • Less power produced (1-3% annual production)
      – Operational modification assumed to start in year 1

© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   31
Engineering/Economic Assessment
   Three Scenarios

      • Scenario 3 – Advanced Controls
         – Implement advanced controls at year 0 and at year 10 using:
            • Lidar based controls (mean load reduction of 8%)
            • State estimation (3-7% load reduction)
         – Reduced downtime and O&M costs with reduced loads
         – Additional O&M costs and downtime for lidar

                                             Case                     Mean Load Reduction   Mean Life

                         Lidar implemented at year 0                          8%            28 years


                        Lidar implemented at year 10                          8%            24 years


                State estimation implemented at year 0                        5%            25 years


               State estimation implemented at year 10                        5%            22 years



© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.         32
Wind Turbine Life Extension
   Summary Results
                                                                         NPV               NPV Percent                IRR Percent
                                   Scenario                           (millions of        Difference from   IRR     Difference from
                                                                        dollars)            Base Case                  Base Case

                                 Base Case                                $38                   0%          8.1%          0%

                Targeted Inspections: 25 years                            $82                 113%          9.3%         14%

                Targeted Inspections: 30 years                           $119                 210%          10.0%        23%

                Targeted Inspections: 35 years                           $152                 294%          10.4%        28%

            Operational Modifications, 9% load
                                                                          $80                 108%          9.2%         13%
                        reduction
            Operational Modifications, 5% load
                                                                         $105                 173%          9.6%         18%
                        reduction

        Advanced Controls, Lidar implemented
                                                                          $93                 143%          9.2%         13%
                     at year 0

        Advanced Controls, Lidar implemented
                                                                          $63                  65%          8.7%          7%
                    at year 10

          Advanced Controls, State Estimation
                                                                          $85                 121%          9.4%         15%
                implemented at year 0

          Advanced Controls, State Estimation
                                                                          $63                  64%          8.9%          9%
               implemented at year 10



© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.                  33
Wind Turbine Life Extension
   Conclusions

      • Life extension generally cost effective (your mileage may
        vary).
      • Project-specific uncertainties will require an analysis of
        consumed fatigue-life prior to any life extension
        program.
      • Best approach to life extension will be heavily site and
        owner specific.
      • More benefit could be achieved from a combination of
        approaches as they are not mutually exclusive.




© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.   34

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Technology Needs for Advancing Wind Power Generation - Stan Rosinski, Electric Power Research Institute

  • 1. Technology Needs for Advancing Wind Power Generation Stan T. Rosinski Program Manager, Renewables Wind Power Summit February 25, 2013
  • 2. Three Key Aspects of EPRI Independent Objective, scientifically based results address reliability, Independent efficiency, affordability, health, safety and the environment Nonprofit Nonprofit Chartered to serve the public benefit Collaborative Collaborative Bring together scientists, engineers, academic researchers, industry experts © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
  • 3. EPRI’s R&D Portfolio Power Delivery and Utilization Generation • Transmission Lines and • Advanced Coal Plants, Carbon Substations Capture and Storage • Grid Operations and Planning • Combustion Turbines • Distribution • Environmental Controls • Energy Utilization • Major Component Reliability • Cross-Cutting Technologies • Materials and Chemistry • Operations and Maintenance Nuclear • Power Plant Water Management • Advanced Nuclear Technology • Chemistry, Low-Level Waste, and Environment and Radiation Management Renewable Energy • Equipment Reliability • Air Quality • Fuel Reliability • Energy and Environmental • Long-Term Operations Analysis • Materials Degradation/Aging • Land and Groundwater • Nondestructive Evaluation and • Occupational Health and Safety Material Characterization • Renewable Energy • Risk and Safety Management • T&D Environmental Issues • Used Fuel and High-level Waste • Water and Ecosystems Management © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
  • 4. Key Strategic Technical Issues Smart Energy Long-Term Grid Efficiency Operations Renewable Resources Near Zero Water Resource and Integration Emissions Management © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
  • 5. Renewable Resources and Integration Many questions remain regarding renewable costs, performance, impact and integration Key Challenges • Generation technology: cost and performance • Grid reliability: Operating the system with variable resources • Environmental impacts © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
  • 6. Drivers for Wind Research • Reduce cost of wind (capital, LCOE), optimize performance and expand installed capacity • Accelerate grid parity w/o subsidies • Address wind resources variability and grid penetration issues • Innovative cost-effective wind energy storage options • Off-shore wind deployment challenges • Minimize/mitigate environmental impact © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
  • 7. Wind R&D Roadmap Issue R&D Area Wind Turbine Components Blade design enhancements Improve drive train reliability Improved materials/designs for taller towers (100-175m) Integrated Turbine Systems New large-scale systems needed (large-scale; >6MW) Energy Storage Integrating wind energy with on-site storage © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
  • 8. Wind R&D Roadmap Issue R&D Area Offshore Wind Foundations Components suited to offshore environment (blades, rotors, drive-train) Methodologies to identify/ evaluate critical risks Wind Forecasting Improved hour-ahead and day-ahead forecasting Seconds/minutes forecasting © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
  • 9. Wind R&D Roadmap Issue R&D Area Condition Monitoring Improved on-line monitoring, data collection/ mining and analysis Non-destructive evaluation techniques Performance Optimization Adaptive control techniques for diverse terrains/models Enhanced reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) approaches Wind turbine database Life extension © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
  • 10. EPRI Wind Energy Program Identify, evaluate and conduct targeted R&D on wind technologies with high potential to address critical industry issues Wind Power Technology Model Development Wind Power Asset Wind Environmental Assessment and and Validation Management Issues Development • Ground-based • Curtailment for inspection Bat Protection • Life extension © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
  • 11. Ground Based Inspection of Wind Turbine Blades Drivers • Blade failure – overall reliability • Blade manufacturing improving – but defects do exist – Bond issues (lack of, inadequate) – Delaminations, wrinkles • Blades environmentally degrade, fatigue • Blade replacement costly © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
  • 12. Approach • Develop an NDE and engineering tool integrating: – Advanced NDE technology for detection of flaws • Preservice and in-service • Ground-based – Flaw analysis processes • Effect of flaws • Remaining blade life Proactive Wind Turbine Blade Life and Asset Management Tool © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
  • 13. Laser Shearography • Detection of flaws in complex composite materials in aeronautical and aerospace industry (field or factory) • Uses laser field and interferometer to detect flaws in part, under loading (heat, pressure, vacuum) Courtesy of Laser Technology Inc. © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
  • 14. Laser Shearography Testing at National Renewable Energy Laboratory © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
  • 15. Visual Examination versus Laser Shearography Lightning Damage Images Courtesy of Laser Technology Inc. Left photo - Visual examination of lightning damage to wind turbine blade Right photo - Laser shearogram of the same area indicating a 25 inch (635 mm) delamination extending from lightning strike. © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
  • 16. Infrared Thermography • Enhance ground based inspection technology • High-speed inspection of blades during operation – Cost effective – Large area inspection • Infrared Thermography – Fast ‘screening’ scan – Identify areas for follow-up inspection – Simultaneous imaging of blade serial number Thermal Image of 15m segment of 2 MW rotating blade – No Indications Image – Courtesy of Digital Wind Systems © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
  • 17. Laser Shearography (top) vs Thermography Imaging (bottom) Defects are Waves in the Carbon Fiber Spar Cap – HP Side (top of blade in fixture) Distance from Root: 6 meters 5 meters 3.5 meters Blade failed at this defect Images – Courtesy of Digital Wind Systems Images are not to scale. © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
  • 18. Imaged Defect due to Spar Cap Fiber Wave after 2.2 Million Fatigue Cycles, Nominal Turbine Blade Operation Stress Load Fatigue crack imaged 100 ft. from blade Image – Courtesy of Digital Wind Systems © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
  • 19. Ground-Based Inspection Summary Wide Field Thermography of 1.6 MW Blades Two test types for fast survey and detailed imaging Tower weld remains slightly warmer, heated by sunlight during daylight. Actual field tests have small field of view to image flaws Image – Courtesy of Digital Wind System © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 19
  • 20. Wind Power and Bats Issue and Challenge • Financially important to Agriculture – Pollination – Insect control • Important in the ecosystem – Very slow reproductive rate (1-2 young/year) – High attrition rate of young • Mortality rate increasing in the US/Canada – White Nose Syndrome – Expanding area • Most mortality at wind sites occurs June through October © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 20
  • 21. Range of Federally Endangered Bat (and bat species proposed to be listed in 2013) Striped – Indiana bats (Endangered) Light purple = Eastern Small- Footed (proposed for listing) Dark purple = Northern Long- Eared (proposed for listing) Gray = Little Brown Bats (proposed for listing) White-nose Fungus is driving listing consideration Courtesy of We Energies © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 21
  • 22. Options to Miminize Fatalaties • Operation of turbines must be changed during bat migration (June- October) – Increase cut-in speed • Turbines begin to rotate only at higher wind speeds • Generation lost during periods of low wind – Shut off turbines for the entire night • Generation lost every evening – Restrict operation only during periods of bat activity (preferred) © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
  • 23. Smart Curtailment Acoustic-Based Detection ReBAT system courtesy of Normandeau Associates © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
  • 24. Automated Wind Turbine Curtailment Scope • Acoustic monitoring of bat activity at nacelle • Post-construction mortality survey • Develop predictive bat mortality model • Develop Bat Detection Shutdown System • Monitor 4 nacelles © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 24
  • 25. Automated Wind Turbine Curtailment Summary • Reducing bat mortality through curtailments is here – Potentially widespread – Curtailing only when necessary is preferred • Proactive approach • Minimizes generation loss © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 25
  • 26. Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity For additional information: Stan Rosinski Program Manager, Renewables Electric Power Research Institute srosinski@epri.com 704-595-2621 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 26
  • 28. Extending Wind Turbine Life • Reliability Challenges • Safety Challenges © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 28
  • 29. End of Design Life Options Combination of proactive approaches Run beyond design life but take Higher return measures to ensure low risk of failure Run blindly beyond design life Take measures to reduce fatigue accumulation Lower risk Higher risk Lower return Decommission upon reaching end of design life © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 29
  • 30. Proactive Life Extension Methods Examples • Operations and maintenance (O&M) strategies including modifying operations • Mining O&M records to understand and predict component reliability • Load measurement to track fatigue accumulation or to control the turbine better • Flight Leader Concept: selecting turbines to serve as a sample subset of a fleet • Targeted inspections to detect incipient failures and ensure structural integrity beyond design life • Turbine refurbishment or retrofit • Advanced controls to reduce fatigue loading © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 30
  • 31. Engineering/Economic Assessment Three Scenarios • Scenario 1 – Targeted Inspections – Regular inspections to monitor risk of failure: • Foundations - 5 year interval • Blades/selected tower welds/hubs – annually – Continued operation • Scenario 2 – Modified Operation – Reduce operation (turbine de-rate) during high loading events • Reduce fatigue accumulation • Less power produced (1-3% annual production) – Operational modification assumed to start in year 1 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 31
  • 32. Engineering/Economic Assessment Three Scenarios • Scenario 3 – Advanced Controls – Implement advanced controls at year 0 and at year 10 using: • Lidar based controls (mean load reduction of 8%) • State estimation (3-7% load reduction) – Reduced downtime and O&M costs with reduced loads – Additional O&M costs and downtime for lidar Case Mean Load Reduction Mean Life Lidar implemented at year 0 8% 28 years Lidar implemented at year 10 8% 24 years State estimation implemented at year 0 5% 25 years State estimation implemented at year 10 5% 22 years © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 32
  • 33. Wind Turbine Life Extension Summary Results NPV NPV Percent IRR Percent Scenario (millions of Difference from IRR Difference from dollars) Base Case Base Case Base Case $38 0% 8.1% 0% Targeted Inspections: 25 years $82 113% 9.3% 14% Targeted Inspections: 30 years $119 210% 10.0% 23% Targeted Inspections: 35 years $152 294% 10.4% 28% Operational Modifications, 9% load $80 108% 9.2% 13% reduction Operational Modifications, 5% load $105 173% 9.6% 18% reduction Advanced Controls, Lidar implemented $93 143% 9.2% 13% at year 0 Advanced Controls, Lidar implemented $63 65% 8.7% 7% at year 10 Advanced Controls, State Estimation $85 121% 9.4% 15% implemented at year 0 Advanced Controls, State Estimation $63 64% 8.9% 9% implemented at year 10 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 33
  • 34. Wind Turbine Life Extension Conclusions • Life extension generally cost effective (your mileage may vary). • Project-specific uncertainties will require an analysis of consumed fatigue-life prior to any life extension program. • Best approach to life extension will be heavily site and owner specific. • More benefit could be achieved from a combination of approaches as they are not mutually exclusive. © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 34