1. National Polling Assessment
September 2012

2. Right Direction/
Wrong Track
42%
Right Direction
Unemployment
8.1%
August 2012
Consumer
Confidence
-40.8
Sept. 16th, 2012
Obama Job Approval
50%
Approve
Obama
Favorability
53%
Favorable
Romney
Favorability
48%
Favorable
2012 Ballot
48% - 43%
Generic Ballot
47% - 45%
Key Numbers at a Glance
Mercury. 2
Intrade:
Obama Re-elect
78.1%
Sept. 28th, 2012

3. 42%
Right Direction
Right Direction/
Wrong Track:
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right
direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
As optimism about the future becomes a political issue…
Mercury. 3
AP-GfK poll, conducted September 13-17, 2012 n=807 LVs, MoE = ± 4.3%
21%
24% 26%
39% 37%
31%
35%
42%
75%
72% 70%
57% 56%
60% 60%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 5/12 6/12 8/12 9/12
Right Direction Wrong Track

4. Better/Worse Off:
… many voters say they’re better off than four years ago…
Mercury. 4
43%
Better Off
Are you better off or worse off than you were at the beginning of 2009?
(Bloomberg poll, conducted September 21-24, n=1007 adults, MoE = ± 3.1%)
Compared with four years ago, are you and your family better off today, worse
off today, or about the same? (CBS/NYT poll, conducted September 8-12,
n=1301 adults, MoE = ± 3.0%)
Thinking about your situation today compared to what it was four years ago, are
you better off than you were four years ago, or not? (FOX News poll, conducted
September 9-11, n=1056 adults, MoE = ± 3.0%)
43%
25%
42%
33%
28%
42%
23%
46%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Bloomberg CBS/NYT FOX News
Better Worse About Same*
*”About the Same” was a given in option on the CBS/NYT survey only

5. 8.1%
August 2012
Unemployment:
…despite stubborn unemployment numbers…
Mercury. 5
Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
9.1% 9.1%
9.0%
8.9%
8.7%
8.5%
8.3% 8.3%
8.2%
8.1%
8.2%
8.3%
8.1%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12

6. -40.8
Sept. 16th 2012
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence Index by Bloomberg:
…and unchanging consumer confidence numbers.
Mercury. 6
-52.1
-48.4 -50.0
-45.0
-47.4
-39.8
-33.7
-31.4
-43.6
-37.9 -39.7
-44.4
-40.8
-100.0
-90.0
-80.0
-70.0
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12

7. 50%
Approve
Obama Job Approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as
president?
However, Obama has maintained a steady approval…
Mercury. 7
NBC/WSJ poll, conducted September 12-16, 2012 n=900 RVs, MoE = ± 3.3%
44% 44% 44%
46%
48%
50%
49%
48%
47%
49%
48%
50%
51% 51% 51%
48%
46%
45%
46% 46%
48%
48%
49%
48%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
8/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12
Approve Disapprove

8. 53%
Favorable
(net +9)
Obama Favorable
Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Barack Obama?
…combined with a high personal favorability…
Mercury. 8
56% 54% 54% 53%
57% 58%
53%
43% 45% 44% 46%
42%
38%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 5/12 8/12
Favorable Unfavorable
AP-GfK poll, conducted September 13-17, 2012 n=807 LVs, MoE = ± 4.3%

9. 48%
Favorable
(net +2)
Romney Favorable
Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney?
…which is an area Romney has struggled in…
Mercury. 9
39%
49% 48% 50%
43%
44%
48%
41%
37% 39%
43% 43%
46%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 5/12 8/12 9/12
Favorable Unfavorable
AP-GfK poll, conducted September 13-17, 2012 n=807 LVs, MoE = ± 4.3%

10. 2012 Ballot
If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates
were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney
and Paul Ryan?
48%-43%
…leading to an Obama lead with five weeks to go.
Mercury. 10
FOX News poll, conducted September 24-26, 2012 n=1092 LVs, MoE = ± 3%
45%
42%
44% 46% 47% 46% 46% 46% 45% 45%
44%
48%
42%
44%
42%
45%
42% 42%
46%
39% 40% 41%
45%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
9/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12
Obama Romney

11. Swing State Polling
Arizona (11 EVs)
Obama 42, Romney 52
(Rasmussen, 9/25, n=500 LV)
Colorado (9 EVs)
Obama 51, Romney 45
(PPP, 9/20-23,
n=940 LV)
Iowa (6 EVs)
Obama 51, Romney 44
(PPP, 9/24-26, n=754 LV)
Missouri (10 EVs)
Obama 45, Romney 48
(Rasmussen, 9/11,
n=500 LV)
Ohio (18 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 42
(FOX News, 9/16-18,
n=1009 LV)
New Hampshire
(4 EVs)
Obama 45, Romney 48
(Rasmussen, 9/15-17,
n=500 LV)
Virginia (13 EVs)
Obama 46, Romney 43
(Purple Strategies, 9/15-19,
n=600 LV)
Florida (29 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 46
(Florida Times-Union, 9/24,
n=540 LV)
More so than national polls, swing states favor Obama…
Mercury. 11
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Obama 52, Romney 45
(PPP, 9/18-19,
n=842 LV)

12. Ohio
(18 EVs)
…particularly in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida…
Mercury. 12
49%-44%
(RCP Average)
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Recent Polls
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
41%
Favorable
(net -8)
Romney
Favorable
54%
Favorable
(net +11)
Obama
Favorable
50%
Approve
(net +3)
Obama
Job Approval
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll, conducted September 18-24, 2012 n=1162 LVs, MoE = ± 3%

13. Virginia
(15 EVs)
…three states Romney cannot win without…
Mercury. 13
49%-45%
(RCP Average)
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Recent Polls
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
48%
Favorable
(net +2)
Romney
Favorable
58%
Favorable
(net +19)
Obama
Favorable
53%
Approve
(net +8)
Obama
Job Approval
FOX News poll, conducted September 16-18, 2012 n=1006 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%

14. Florida
(28 EVs)
…but where key indicators point in Obama’s favor.
Mercury. 14
49%-46%
(RCP Average)
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Recent Polls
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
41%
Favorable
(net -7)
Romney
Favorable
54%
Favorable
(net +12)
Obama
Favorable
50%
Approve
(net +3)
Obama
Job Approval
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll, conducted September 18-24, 2012 n=1162 LVs, MoE = ± 3%

15. Intrade:
Obama Re-Election
Recent polling leads have the markets rallying to Obama…
Mercury. 15
78.1%
September 28

16. Congressional Ballot
If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the
Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?
47%-45%
…while downballot Democrats reap the benefits…
Mercury. 16
GWU/Politco poll, conducted September 16-20, 2012 n=1,000 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
42%
41%
44%
47%
44%
42%
47%
41%
40%
43%
45%
46%
45%
45%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
5/11 9/11 11/11 2/12 5/12 8/12 9/12
DEM GOP

17. State of the Senate
Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOP
Hawaii
(Open)
Florida
(Nelson)
Connecticut
(Open)
Arizona
(Open)
Nebraska
(Open)
Maine
(Open)
Missouri
(McCaskill)
Massachusetts
(Brown)
Indiana
(Open)
Michigan
(Stabenow)
New Mexico
(Open)
Montana
(Tester)
North Dakota
(Open)
Ohio
(Brown)
Nevada
(Heller)
Virginia
(Open)
Wisconsin
(Open)
…giving them an even chance at keeping the Senate…
Mercury. 17

18. Latest Senate Polling
Nevada:
Heller (R): 49%
Berkley (D): 43%
(Marist, 9/23-25, n=984 LV)
Montana:
Tester (D): 48%
Rehberg (R): 45%
(Mason-Dixon, 9/17-19, n=625 LV)
Wisconsin:
Baldwin (D): 48%
Thomspon (R): 46%
(Marist, 9/16-18, n=968 LV)
Missouri:
McCaskill (D): 43%
Akin (R): 49%
(Rasmussen, 9/11, n=500 LV) Virginia:
Kaine (D): 46%
Allen (R): 46%
(Suffolk, 9/24-26, n=600 LV)
Massachusetts:
Brown (R): 48%
Warren (D): 48%
(Rasmussen, 9/24, n=500 LV)
…though many states will go down to the wire.
Mercury. 18
Connecticut:
Murphy (D): 48%
McMahon (R): 42%
(PPP, 9/24-26, n=801 LV)
Florida:
Nelson (D): 48%
Mack (R): 40%
(Mason-Dixon, 9/17-19,
n=800 LV)

19. Mercury. 19
National Polling Assessment
September 2012
Kieran Mahoney
CEO
New York, NY | kmahoney@mercuryllc.com
Kirill Goncharenko
President
New York, NY | kgoncharenko@mercuryllc.com
Senator James Talent
Co-Chairman
Washington, DC| jtalent@mercuryllc.com
Hon. Fernando Ferrer
Co-Chairman
New York, NY | fferrer@mercuryllc.com
Hon. Fabian Nunez
Partner
Sacramento, CA| fnunez@mercuryllc.com
Hon. Max Sandlin
Co-Chairman
Washington, DC | msandlin@mercuryllc.com
Thomas Doherty
Partner
Albany, NY | tdoherty@mercuryllc.com
Michael McKeon
Partner
New York, NY | mmckeon@mercuryllc.com
Adam Mendelsohn
Partner
Sacramento, CA| amendelsohn@mercuryllc.com
Michael DuHaime
Partner
Westfield, NJ| mduhaime@mercuryllc.com
Hon. Vin Weber
Partner
Washington, DC | vin@cwdc.com