The MNI India Business Indicator declined to 58.2 in February from 63.4 in January, leaving confidence at the lowest level since December.

1. MNI India Business Report
February 2014
Insight and data for better decisions

2. 2
MNI India Business Report - February 2014
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3. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Contents
4
Editorial
32
What the Panel Said
6
Executive Summary
34
Data Tables
10
Economic Landscape
38
Methodology
14
Indicators
15
MNI India Business Indicator
16
Production
17
New Orders
18
Export Orders
19
Productive Capacity
21
Order Backlogs
22
Employment
23
Inventories
24
Input Prices
25
Prices Received
26
Financial Position
27
Interest Rates Paid
29
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
30
Supplier Delivery Times
31
Availability of Credit
3

4. 4
Spitzzeile Titel
It’s Not all the Fed’s Fault
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan
has lambasted US monetary policy for not taking
emerging markets into consideration.

5. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has
lambasted US monetary policy for not taking emerging
markets into consideration. While it’s true that the
Federal Reserve doesn’t appear at all sensitive to the
problems their domestic policies cause, unwinding
quantitative easing is a key step on the path back to
normalisation.
The currency has outperformed most other emerging
markets since Rajan took office. While growth remains
poor, the current account deficit has shrunk, helped
by curbs on gold imports, and foreign exchange
reserves have increased. Financial markets have now
turned their attention to perceived more vulnerable
countries such as Turkey or Argentina.
As emerging markets around the world were once
again thrown into turmoil this year, some expected, or
hoped, that the US Fed would hold back on their
tapering of asset purchases which began in December.
It was not to be and the Fed trimmed purchases of
treasuries and mortgage backed securities to $65
billion.
India, though, is by no means out of the woods and
while the central bank can better formulate its policy
framework to attempt to eradicate the current
damaging high rate of inflation, it is the government
that needs to take action to ensure India continues to
grow. With the May elections looming, India could yet
find itself back in the firing line.
Many erupted with consternation that in a statement
accompanying the move, the Fed didn’t even mention
emerging markets. The Fed would argue that its remit
is domestic, although clearly its actions reverberate
globally.
Philip Uglow
Chief Economist
MNI Indicators
“International monetary co-operation has broken
down,” said Rajan in a recent interview. “Industrial
countries have to play a part in restoring that [cooperation], and they can’t at this point wash their
hands off and say, we’ll do what we need to and you
do the adjustment.”
Still, the Fed’s tapering has been flagged well in
advance and monetary policy in the US needs to
adjust at some point. I doubt there would ever be a
good time to turn off the monetary tap.
Since taking over as Governor of the RBI in September,
Rajan has made all the right noises for global markets.
He has set his sight clearly on inflation and raised
official interest rates three times since coming to
office, most recently in late January, when against the
judgement of his colleagues, he decided to hike the
policy rate by 25 basic points to 8%. Importantly, his
decisions have never been taken with a sense of
panic but he has always focused on the long-term
goals - the move to introduce an inflation targeting
regime is a case in point.
5

6. 6
Spitzzeile Titel
Executive Summary
The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 58.2 in
February from 63.4 in January. Nine out of the 15
current conditions indicators included in the report
fell in February.

7. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 58.2 in
February from 63.4 in January, a decline of 8.2% on
the month. The worsening was led by a fall in business
conditions among service sector companies.
Expectations for business conditions in three months’
time slipped to 69.5 in February from 72.0 in January,
the lowest since October.
Nine out of the 15 current conditions indicators
included in the report fell in February. For business
expectations in the next three months, four indicators
fell from the previous month.
Following a pick-up in January, Production eased to
62.0 in February from 64.4 in January, although this
was still 11.5% higher than last year.
The New Orders Indicator declined 2% on the month
to 62.3 in February from 63.6 in January, led by
construction and service sector companies.
The Export Orders Indicator also fell to 59.8 in
February from 61.4 in January, the lowest since
November.
since October and they rose to 55.6 in February from
54.4 in the previous month.
Many companies continued to complain about the
high rate of inflation that was adding to their costs.
The Input Price Indicator increased to 73.0 in February
from 69.8 in January led by increases among both
services and manufacturing firms.
The Prices Received Indicator fell to 56.2 in February
from 60.6 in January, the lowest level since October,
although still at a relatively high level.
The Financial Position Indicator rose to 69.3 in
February from 68.2 in January, the highest since
November and well above the 56.3 posted in the
same month a year earlier.
The Interest Rates Paid Indicator increased to 67.3
from 60.5 in January. The decline in interest costs
paid by companies over the past two months was
reversed in February following a hike in official rates
by the Reserve Bank of India.
Following a sharp rise in the previous month, the
Productive Capacity Indicator fell back a little to 56.1
in February from 58.0 in January.
The Effect of the Rupee Exchange Rate Indicator
remained broadly flat at 44.2 in February compared
with 44.3 in the previous month as companies
continued to report that the current level of the rupee
was hurting their business.
Order Backlogs accelerated to 39.8 in February, up
from 35.6 in January. The indicator has fallen sharply
over the past year as the economy has slowed
considerably, although recovered partially in February,
after hitting a record low.
The indicator measuring the Availability of Credit fell
from 56.8 in January to 54.9, a decline of 3.3% on
the month. The indicator has remained broadly stable
since last year, averaging 53.1 in the past twelve
months.
Between January and February, the Employment
Indicator fell from 51.8 to 50.8, as the indicator for
manufacturing companies fell into contraction.
The Inventory level of Finished Goods Indicator
accelerated further to a new series high of 64.9
compared with 62.1 in January.
Supplier Delivery Times have steadily lengthened
7

8. 8
MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Overview
Dec -13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Current Conditions
57.8
63.4
58.2
-
Dec-13
59.8
-5.2
-8.2%
Future Expectations
71.1
72.0
69.5
-
Oct-13
70.9
-2.5
-3.5%
Current Conditions
59.7
64.4
62.0
-
Dec-13
62.0
-2.4
-3.7%
Future Expectations
66.2
71.6
69.7
-
Dec-13
69.2
-1.9
-2.7%
Current Conditions
60.3
63.6
62.3
-
Dec-13
62.1
-1.3
-2.0%
Future Expectations
65.4
65.5
67.2
Nov-13
-
66.0
1.7
2.6%
Current Conditions
60.5
61.4
59.8
-
Nov-13
60.6
-1.6
-2.6%
Future Expectations
67.9
62.9
68.2
Sep-13
-
66.3
5.3
8.4%
MNI India Business Indicator
Production
New Orders
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions
51.3
58.0
56.1
-
Dec-13
55.1
-1.9
-3.3%
Future Expectations
57.5
64.3
60.0
-
Dec-13
60.6
-4.3
-6.7%
Current Conditions
41.7
35.6
39.8
Dec-13
-
39.0
4.2
11.8%
Future Expectations
43.7
35.2
40.1
Dec-13
-
39.7
4.9
13.9%
Order Backlogs
Employment
Current Conditions
50.0
51.8
50.8
-
Dec-13
50.9
-1.0
-1.9%
Future Expectations
52.2
53.4
57.5
series high
-
54.4
4.1
7.7%
Inventories
Current Conditions
53.1
62.1
64.9
series high
-
60.0
2.8
4.5%
Future Expectations
54.6
59.5
53.5
-
Nov-13
55.9
-6.0
-10.1%
Current Conditions
71.8
69.8
73.0
Nov-13
-
71.5
3.2
4.6%
Future Expectations
66.4
69.9
72.0
Nov-13
-
69.4
2.1
3.0%
Input Prices
Prices Received
Current Conditions
58.0
60.6
56.2
-
Oct-13
58.3
-4.4
-7.3%
Future Expectations
56.0
60.9
61.2
Nov-13
-
59.4
0.3
0.5%
Current Conditions
65.2
68.2
69.3
Nov-13
-
67.6
1.1
1.6%
Future Expectations
71.3
71.5
77.2
Sep-13
-
73.3
5.7
8.0%
Current Conditions
69.2
60.5
67.3
Dec-13
-
65.7
6.8
11.2%
Future Expectations
56.8
57.9
60.7
Nov-13
-
58.5
2.8
4.8%
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Current Conditions
39.4
44.3
44.2
-
Dec-13
42.6
-0.1
-0.2%
Future Expectations
43.2
43.6
45.2
Jul-13
-
44.0
1.6
3.7%
Current Conditions
54.2
54.4
55.6
Sep-13
-
54.7
1.2
2.2%
Future Expectations
54.2
51.7
56.2
May-13
-
54.0
4.5
8.7%
Current Conditions
52.6
56.8
54.9
-
Dec-13
54.8
-1.9
-3.3%
Future Expectations
58.8
54.1
54.8
Dec-13
-
55.9
0.7
1.3%
Supplier Delivery Times
Availability of Credit

9. w
Consumer price
inflation eased to a
two year low of
8.8% in January.
This was led by an easing in food price inflation,
which accounts for almost half of the CPI basket, to
9.9% from 12.2% in December.

10. 10
Spitzzeile Titel
Economic Landscape
Latest economic data has provided a ray of hope
from the economic gloom that has surrounded India.
Consumer price inflation hit a two year low and the
trade deficit continued to fall. Industrial production,
though, has been persistently weak.

11. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Latest economic data has provided a ray of hope from
the economic gloom that has surrounded India for
many months. Consumer price inflation hit a two year
low and wholesale price inflation moderated as
vegetable prices declined. Moreover, the trade deficit
continued to fall helped by higher exports and lower
imports of gold and silver.
Industrial production, though, has been persistently
weak, as manufacturing output contracted for the
third consecutive month in December. In spite of the
continued weakness in the economy and fall in
headline inflation, the Reserve Bank of India hiked its
policy rate by 25 basis points to 8% on January 28,
citing continued inflationary pressures.
Slow economic growth
Economic growth increased by 4.8% on the year in
the three months to September, up from 4.4% in the
previous quarter, although below the 5.2% seen in
the same period a year ago.
The acceleration in growth may have been due partly
to a good monsoon which helped boost agricultural
output, while manufacturing activity remained
anaemic. Agricultural output rose 4.6% on the year,
compared with 2.7% in the previous quarter.
Manufacturing posted a 1% increase, up from the
1.2% fall seen in the previous quarter, although only
0.1% above the same period a year earlier.
On an expenditure basis, higher exports and a surge
in investment were the main drivers of growth,
expanding by 16.3% and 2.6% respectively on the
year, having both fallen by 1.2% in the three months
to June.
Private consumption, the largest component of GDP,
rose 2.2% in the three months to September compared
with a year earlier, up from 1.6% in the three months
to June, but down from 3.5% in the same quarter last
year.
The Finance Minister P.Chidambaram expects the
economy will expand 5.2% in the third and fourth
quarter of the fiscal year, and 4.9% in 2014.
The International Monetary Fund has revised up
India‘s growth forecast to 4.4% for the current fiscal
year, more than half a percentage point up from
October‘s estimate, due to a normal monsoon and
improved exports.
Industrial outlook shows minor recovery
The Reserve Bank’s Industrial Outlook Survey, showed
that the Business Expectation Index, a gauge of
manufacturing
business
sentiment,
improved
marginally in the quarter ending December to 98.8
from 97.3 in the quarter ending September.
Expectations for the next quarter ending March rose
to 112.7 compared with the previous quarter’s 109.9.
Current assessment and expectations sentiment for
production, order books, capacity utilisation, exports
and imports improved slightly, showing that companies
were more optimistic about the demand outlook.
Industrial output continued to fall
Industrial production contracted for the third
consecutive month, falling 0.6% on the year in
December. November‘s industrial output was revised
up to a 1.3% decline from the previously reported
2.1% decline.
Manufacturing output slumped by 1.6% in December
compared with a year earlier, although up from a
decline of 2.7% in November (revised up from -3.5%
previously). Overall, eight out of the 22 industry
groups within the manufacturing sector contracted in
December, led by Radio, TV and communication
equipment & apparatus which posted a fall of 35.7%
on the year. This was followed by a 26.1% decline in
output for Furniture and a 22.1% fall in Office,
accounting & computing machinery.
After growing by 1.7% on the year in November,
mining output growth slowed to 0.4% in December.
Output of consumer durables, a measure of consumer
demand, posted the thirteenth consecutive decline,
falling 16.2% in December compared with a fall of
21.5% in November. Capital goods output, a proxy for
investments in the economy, fell 3% in December
compared with a decline of 0.1% in November.
11

12. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Industrial Production
250
25%
20%
200
15%
10%
150
5%
0%
100
help to revive consumption and investment in a
sustainable way. The RBI, however, said that if retail
inflation eases as projected, it does not foresee a
need for further monetary policy tightening in the
near-term.
The RBI expects consumer price inflation to stay
above 9% during the final quarter of the fiscal year
ending March, before easing to 7.5-8.5% for the
quarter that ends in March 2015, with the balance of
risks tilted to the upside.
-5%
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan made clear that
inflation needed to be brought down to a low and
stable level, so that monetary policy could eventually
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Wholesale Price Inflation*
Consumer Price Inflation**
Source: *Office of the Economic Advisor, India, **MOSPI
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
0%
Feb-13
RBI hikes repo rate to 8%
The RBI raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to
8% from 7.75% at its January meeting, citing the
elevated level of consumer price inflation.
Inflation
Dec-12
Wholesale price inflation decelerated to an eight
month low of 5% in January, down from 6.2% in
December. The slowdown was largely driven by
vegetable prices that expanded 22% in January,
compared with a near 30% rise in December.
Consequently, food price inflation eased to 3% in
January, half of the 6% outturn seen in December.
Fiscal budget deficit
The government budget deficit stood at Rs.5.1 trillion
($82 billion) in the April-December period, or 95.2%
of the target for the year ending March 2014. Net tax
receipts totalled Rs. 6.47 trillion in the first ten months
to March 2014, while total expenditure was Rs. 11.64
trillion.
Oct-12
Inflation slows as vegetable prices decelerated
Consumer price inflation eased to a two year low of
8.8% in January compared with 9.9% in December
2013. Food price inflation, which is almost half of the
index, eased to 9.9%, down from 12.2% in December.
The moderation was driven by cooling in vegetable
prices that rose by 21.9% compared with a year
earlier, down from 38.5% in November.
Aug-12
Industrial Production
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
Jun-12
Industrial Production y/y % (RHS)
A central bank panel set up by the Governor has
proposed to revamp its policymaking structure by
setting a long-term consumer price inflation target of
4%, plus or minus 2%. As inflation remains high, it
recommended that the goal should be phased in
gradually. The RBI initially aims CPI to fall to 8% by
January 2015 and 6% by January 2016.
Apr-12
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-10%
2008
50
2007
12

13. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
The gap in public finances has put the nation’s debt
rating at risk, with most credit rating agencies keeping
India on alert with a high probability of a downgrade.
The government plans to defer some subsidy
payments to next year, while focusing on speeding up
the sale of stakes in state-run firms and minority
stakes in some private companies. The government
raised over Rs. 610 billion from selling licenses for the
mobile internet spectrum in February.
Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram expects
the budget gap to fall to a six year low of 4.6% of
GDP, below the target of 4.8% for this fiscal year, and
down from 4.9% seen in the previous 12 months. He
said that there was a need to bring the deficit further
down to 3% of GDP in 2016-17. The fiscal deficit for
2014-15 was projected at 4.1% of GDP in the interim
budget presented on February 17.
Foreign reserves rise
Foreign exchange reserves rose to $292.3 billion in
the week ending February 7, from $291.1 billion a
week earlier. According to the RBI’s weekly statistical
supplement, foreign currency assets, the biggest
component of the forex reserves, rose by $1.26 billion
to $265.8 billion. These are expressed in dollar terms
and include the effect of appreciation or depreciation
of the non-US currencies such as the euro, pound
and yen, held in its reserves.
Moves by the RBI have greatly strengthened India’s
foreign exchange reserve position, leaving it less
vulnerable to another run on the currency. The value
of India’s gold reserves remained steady at $20.1
billion.
Trade deficit shrinks
India’s trade deficit narrowed to $9.9 billion in
January, down from a $10.1 billion deficit in
December, and almost halving the deficit of $18.9
billion seen in the same period last year. Higher
exports and lower imports of gold and silver led the
improvement.
Exports rose for the seventh straight month in January
to $26.8 billion, up 3.8% on the year compared with
the 3.5% growth witnessed in December. Imports fell
18.1% on the year to $36.7 billion in January. Oil
imports declined to $13.2 billion, lower than the
$13.8 billion seen a month earlier and 10.1% below
the level in January 2013. Gold and silver imports
were down 77% to $1.7 billion compared with $7.5
billion in the same month a year earlier.
In 10 months to January, the trade deficit totaled
$120 billion, down from $167.8 billion in the same
period a year back.
The government expects to keep the current account
deficit at $45 billion in the fiscal year that ends in
March.
Car sales decline
Passenger car sales declined for the fourth consecutive
month in January, to 160,289 units, 7.6% down from
a year earlier. Sales of commercial vehicles fell for
ninth month in a row by 20.9% compared with a year
back.
High inflation, rising fuel prices and interest rates
have resulted in high cost of ownership, which has
impacted the demand for cars.
In 2013, car sales declined for the first time in 11
years. Sales of passenger cars dropped by 10% in
2013, down from a 3% growth in 2012.
In the interim budget, Finance Minister Palaniappan
Chidambaram cut excise duty on small cars, two
wheelers, and commercial vehicles to 8% from 12%,
providing some relief to the automobile industry.
13

14. 14
Spitzzeile Titel
Indicators
Business confidence declined in February, although
was up compared with a year earlier, suggesting
that the worst is over for the Indian economy.

15. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
58.2
MNI India Business Indicator
Business Confidence Declines
Business confidence declined in February, although
was up compared with a year earlier, suggesting that
the worst is over for the Indian economy.
The MNI India Business Indicator fell to 58.2 in
February from 63.4 in January, a decline of 8.2% on
the month. The worsening was led by a fall in business
optimism among service sector companies, while
conditions remained stable for both manufacturing
and construction sector companies.
MNI India Business Indicator
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Future expectations have also increased significantly
since April, but the acceleration has eased in recent
months. Expectations for business conditions in three
months’ time slipped to 69.5 in February from 72.0 in
January, the lowest since October.
The Future Expectations Indicator for construction
companies improved to the highest since October.
Optimism among manufacturing firms remained at
elevated levels and broadly stable from last month.
Service sector companies were the least optimistic
about the future with the indicator posting a significant
decline this month. All three sectors, though, remained
well above the breakeven level.
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
40
Nov-12
Business confidence was hit hard in the first half of
2013 as India faced a potential financial and economic
meltdown following fears the US Federal Reserve
would taper its bond purchases, which caused
widespread panic in emerging markets. Sentiment
subsequently recovered and has trended higher since
the summer of 2013, although has been broadly
stable since September.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Nine out of the 15 current conditions indicators
included in the report fell in February with seven of
them posting the lowest reading since December. For
business expectations in the next three months, four
indicators fell from the previous month.
“We are expecting an improvement in overall
business conditions after the elections.”
Real Estate Development & Holding company
MNI India Business Indicator
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
53.6
59.4
59.8
64.6
57.8
63.4
58.2
Future Expectations
53.8
77.1
68.8
69.5
71.1
72.0
69.5
15

16. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
62.0
Production
Falls on the Month
Following a pick-up in January, Production eased in
February, although was still 11.5% higher than last
year.
The Production Indicator declined to 62.0 in February
from 64.4 in January. Production bottomed out last
summer and since then has been on a rising trend,
averaging 61.6 in the past eight months. The three
month trend since August has remained broadly
stable around 60.
Production
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Service sector companies reported a significant
decline in the Production Indicator while manufacturing
companies saw a small fall. For construction sector
companies, the Production indicator increased to the
highest since August.
Jan-14
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Industrial Production to Catch Up
70
4%
65
3%
60
2%
55
1%
50
0%
45
-1%
40
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
-3%
May-13
30
Apr-13
-2%
Mar-13
35
Jan-13
Companies were also less optimistic about production
over the next three months. The Future Expectations
Indicator for Production slowed to 69.7 in February,
from 71.6 in January. Service sector companies were
the least optimistic about the future level of Production
as their expectations deteriorated significantly from
January to February. In contrast, more manufacturing
and construction sector companies expected their
production to expand in three months‘ time, with the
latter the most optimistic among the three sectors.
Feb-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
30
Nov-12
Latest official data on industrial production showed
output fell for the third consecutive month by 0.6% on
the year in December, after contracting by 1.3% in
November. The narrower measure of manufacturing
output fell 1.6% compared with a year earlier following
a decline of 2.7% in November.
Feb-13
16
Industrial Production y/y % (RHS)*
MNI Production
*Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
Production
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
55.6
67.3
57.5
65.3
59.7
64.4
62.0
Future Expectations
49.7
76.8
64.8
68.8
66.2
71.6
69.7

17. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
62.3
New Orders
Lowest Since December
Expectations for New Orders in three months‘ time
rose to 67.2, having remained flat at 65.5 last month.
The increase was led by was led by more manufacturing
and construction sector companies that expected
demand to increase in three months‘ time. Optimism
among service sector companies declined slightly.
80
70
60
50
40
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
30
Feb-13
The New Orders Indicator for manufacturing sector
companies increased to the highest since September,
while for service sector companies it declined, having
remained broadly stable for the previous three months.
90
Dec-12
The three month trend in New Orders has been
reasonably stable over the past six months, with the
indicator hovering around 60. It eased slightly to 62.1
in February compared with 62.3 in January.
New Orders
Nov-12
The New Orders Indicator declined 2% on the month
to 62.3 in February from 63.6 in January, led by
fewer construction and service sector companies
reporting higher new orders.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“There are three big orders with our company
this month.”
Heavy construction company
New Orders
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
55.8
69.1
59.5
62.9
60.3
63.6
62.3
Future Expectations
53.2
78.5
69.5
68.5
65.4
65.5
67.2
17

18. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
59.8
Export Orders
Lowest Since November
Export Orders have trended upwards since April last
year and a decline in February ended three months of
successive rises. The Export Indicators indicator fell
to 59.8 in February from 61.4 in January, the lowest
since November.
Export Orders
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Expectations for three months’ time rose sharply from
62.9 in January to 68.2 in February, nearly recouping
all of the fall seen in January. Construction sector
companies were highly optimistic about future Export
Orders with the indicator increasing significantly
above the 50 breakeven mark. Manufacturing and
services companies’ expectations about future
external demand also improved, though by a smaller
extent.
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Feb-13
The depreciation of the Rupee increased the
competitiveness of Indian exports in 2013, although
rising input costs have offset much of this gain for a
lot of companies.
Apr-13
30
Mar-13
The decline was led by the service sector as the
number of companies whose exports orders were up
almost halved compared with the previous month.
Manufacturing and construction sector companies
reported higher export orders, with the latter the most
optimistic among the three sectors.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Export Orders Movement
32
70
30
60
28
50
26
40
24
30
22
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
20
Apr-13
20
Feb-13
18
MNI Export Orders (RHS)
Exports,FOB, USD B*
*Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Export Orders
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
53.7
63.2
55.6
58.8
60.5
61.4
59.8
Future Expectations
56.0
75.5
57.7
60.8
67.9
62.9
68.2

19. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
56.1
Productive Capacity
Eases Slightly
Following a sharp rise in the previous month, the
Productive Capacity Indicator fell back a little to 56.1
in February from 58.0 in January.
The Productive Capacity Indicator has been above the
50 breakeven mark since May, and after rising to a
record high in September, it has been on a downward
trend.
Productive Capacity
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Companies’ expectations about the next three months
also declined, with the Future Expectations Indicator
falling by 6.7% on the month to 60.0 in February
from 64.3 in January. The indicator for construction
sector companies increased, while it declined for both
services and manufacturing sector companies.
40
35
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
30
Nov-12
Productive Capacity improved significantly for the
construction sector, pushing the indicator well into
expansion territory. There were declines in both the
manufacturing and service sectors, with the latter
falling into contraction.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Our company is operating at its optimum
capacity.”
Containers & Packaging company
Productive Capacity
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
56.5
64.0
58.1
61.3
51.3
58.0
56.1
Future Expectations
56.1
70.3
65.1
65.2
57.5
64.3
60.0
19

20. 20
Spitzzeile Titel
w
Companies’
expectations about
employment hit a
record high in
February.
The Employment Expectations Indicator increased by
7.7% to 57.5 in February from 53.4 in the previous
month.

21. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
39.8
Order Backlogs
Rise Markedly
Order Backlogs have fallen sharply over the past year
as the economy has slowed considerably, although
recovered partially in February from a record low in
January.
The indicator accelerated to 39.8 in February, up from
35.6 in January. The downturn in the economy seen
in recent years has increased the output gap, leaving
it with a greater amount of spare capacity, so many
companies are able to quickly turnaround incoming
orders.
Order Backlogs
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
More companies expected higher order backlogs over
the next three months in anticipation of higher orders.
The Future Expectations Indicator increased to 40.1
compared with 35.2 in January.
Apr-13
25
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Manufacturing and construction sector companies
expected an increase in their backlogs over the coming
three months, while the indicator for service sector
companies slumped. The Expectations Indicators
remained below the 50 breakeven mark for all three
sectors.
“There are no pending orders.”
Consumer goods manufacturing company
Order Backlogs
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
52.9
42.9
45.3
41.7
35.6
39.8
Future Expectations
-
57.5
43.4
48.8
43.7
35.2
40.1
21

22. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Employment
Future Expectations Hit a
Record High
Companies’ expectations about future employment hit
a record high in February due to a considerable rise in
the number of companies that expected that they will
need to take on more employees in the next three
months.
The Expectations Indicator increased to 57.5 in
February from 53.4 in the previous month.
Construction sector companies were the most
optimistic about hiring in the next three months, while
there were smaller gains for manufacturing and
service sector companies.
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
40
Jun-13
Between January and February, the Employment
Indicator fell from 51.8 to 50.8, as the indicator for
manufacturing companies fell into contraction. There
was also a fall among service sector companies, while
construction companies were more optimistic about
raising employment, with the indicator posting the
third consecutive increase.
Employment
May-13
The Employment indicator asks companies whether
they have an adequate number of employees and
although the majority of companies continued to say
that the number of employees they had was “just
right”, there was a rise in those who said they had
“too many” employees.
50.8
Apr-13
22
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Our company will recruit more employees in
the coming months.”
Electrical
component
and
equipment
company
Employment
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
53.3
51.3
48.9
Future Expectations
-
53.4
51.1
49.5
50.0
51.8
50.8
52.2
53.4
57.5

23. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
64.9
Inventories
At Series High
The Inventory level of Finished Goods Indicator
accelerated further to a new series high of 64.9
compared with 62.1 in January.
After dropping to the 50 mark in October and
November, the Inventory Indicator has risen strongly.
Construction companies’ inventories rose to the
highest since September while there was a slight
increase among manufacturing companies.
Inventories
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
25
Apr-13
Future Expectations for the next three months declined
significantly to 53.5 in February from 59.5 in January,
the first fall in four months. Between January and
February, more construction companies expected
their inventories to fall. Manufacturing companies also
saw a fall in the Expectations Indicator, but by a
smaller degree.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Inventories
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
60.1
50.0
50.0
53.1
62.1
64.9
Future Expectations
-
53.7
50.7
53.3
54.6
59.5
53.5
23

24. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
73.0
Input Prices
Highest Since November
Many companies continued to complain about the
high rate of inflation that was adding to their costs as
Input Prices rose to the highest since November,
having eased for the previous two months.
The Input Price Indicator increased to 73.0 in February
from 69.8 in January led by more services and
manufacturing firms reporting higher input prices
compared with a month ago. Construction companies
saw a decline in the Input Price Indicator to the lowest
level since July.
Input Prices
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Expectations for three months’ time accelerated to
72.0 in February, up from 69.9 in the previous month,
driven by a rise in expectations among manufacturing
and service sector companies. The expectations
indicator for construction companies remained broadly
stable at a relatively high level.
May-13
45
Apr-13
24
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Raw materials have become
Containers & Packaging company
costly.”
Input Prices
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
74.1
63.3
73.0
71.8
69.8
73.0
Future Expectations
-
72.9
65.3
72.5
66.4
69.9
72.0

25. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
56.2
Prices Received
Lowest Since October
The Prices Received Indicator fell to 56.2 in February
from 60.6 in January, the lowest level since October,
although still at a relatively high level.
Prices Received
80
75
The trend in the Prices Received Indicator over the
past year has been closely matched by the official
inflation data. Latest data showed that wholesale
price inflation eased to 5% in January from 6.2% in
December.
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
30
Nov-12
Construction sector companies reported a rise in the
Prices Received Indicator for the second consecutive
month, while the service sector witnessed a fall.
Manufacturing companies reported a broadly flat
Prices Received indicator compared with last month.
Current Conditions
Expectations for Prices Received in three months’
time remained broadly stable at 61.2 compared with
January’s 60.9.
Between January and February, more manufacturing
and construction sector companies expected the
prices they charge for their goods to rise in the coming
months. In contrast, many service sector companies
highlighted that it was a highly competitive market
and expected to see a decline in prices charged to win
over customers.
Future Expectations
Prices Received and Wholesale Price Inflation
70
9%
8%
60
7%
50
6%
5%
40
4%
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
May-13
3%
Mar-13
30
MNI Prices Received
Wholesale Price Inflation y/y % (RHS)*
*Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, India
Prices Received
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
59.8
61.8
54.9
60.8
58.0
60.6
56.2
Future Expectations
55.8
67.0
57.3
63.8
56.0
60.9
61.2
25

26. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
69.3
Financial Position
Rises Further
Companies were even more optimistic about their
financial position in the coming three months as the
Expectations Indicator jumped 8% to 77.2 in February,
from 71.5 in the previous month.
The Future Expectations Indicator for all three sectors
increased in February with optimism among
manufacturing firms the highest in eight months.
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
45
Jan-13
The BSE benchmark Sensex rose 170 points to a
nearly three week high of 20,634.21 on February 18
driven by gains in banking, capital goods and auto
shares following proposed excise duty cuts in the
interim budget that cheered investors.
90
Feb-13
Between January and February, more manufacturing
companies reported an improvement in their financial
situation while the indicator for services companies
was broadly flat. More construction sector companies
reported their financial position worsened, although
the indicator remained well above the 50 breakeven
mark.
Financial Position
Dec-12
The Financial Position Indicator rose to 69.3 in
February from 68.2 in January, the highest since
November and well above the 56.3 posted in the
same month a year earlier.
Nov-12
26
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“The company’s situation is good in terms of
finance and business, however due to an
increase in the cost of raw materials there is
less profitability now.”
Speciality chemicals manufacturing company
Financial Position
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
56.3
72.3
58.6
69.9
65.2
68.2
69.3
Future Expectations
51.6
83.3
71.1
74.2
71.3
71.5
77.2

27. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
67.3
Interest Rates Paid
Double Digit Hike
The Interest Rates Paid Indicator rose across all
sectors, of which manufacturing companies witnessed
the largest hike as the proportion of those who
reported that they paid higher interest rates compared
with last month increased significantly.
The RBI raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to
8% from 7.75% at its January meeting, citing the
elevated level of consumer price inflation. This was
the third rise in policy rates since Raghuram Rajan
took over the central bank governor in September
2013. The increase would directly impact the equated
monthly instalments (EMIs) on home, automobile and
other loans.
75
70
65
60
55
50
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
45
Mar-13
The Interest Rates Paid Indicator increased to 67.3
from 60.5 in January as more companies reported
that they paid higher interest rates compared with the
previous month. While in January, 27.5% of
companies surveyed reported higher credit costs, in
February this increased to 41.2%. In contrast, the
percentage of companies who reported they faced the
same interest rates fell from 66% in January to 52.2%
in February.
Interest Rates Paid
Feb-13
The decline in interest costs paid by companies over
the past two months was reversed in February
following a hike in official rates by the Reserve Bank
of India.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Between January and February, more manufacturing
and construction companies expected to face higher
credit costs in the next three months, with the Interest
Rates Paid Indicator climbing back into expansion
territory for the former. Service sector companies
expected Interest Rates Paid to decline in the coming
months as the proportion of companies who said
interest rates would fall increased, though the majority
continued to say they would remain the same.
Expectations for Interest Rates Paid in three months’
time remained at inflated levels from June to November
and have subsequently fallen. The Expectations
Indicator, thought, picked up to 60.7 in February from
57.9 in the previous month.
Interest Rates Paid
Feb-13
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
69.2
68.4
-
65.2
Feb-14
60.3
73.2
69.2
60.5
67.3
65.9
69.6
56.8
57.9
60.7
27

28. 28
Spitzzeile Titel
w
More companies
reported that they
paid higher interest
rates in February.
The RBI raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to
8% from 7.75% in late January.

29. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
44.2
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Stable Below 50
The Effect of the Rupee Exchange Rate Indicator
remained broadly flat at 44.2 in February compared
with 44.3 in the previous month as companies
continued to report that the current level of the rupee
was hurting their business.
Businesses are asked whether the exchange rate is
helping or hurting their company and a value above
50 shows more firms reported that it was helping,
while a reading below 50 shows the exchange rate
was hurting.
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Expectations for three months’ time increased in
February after remaining relatively stable last month.
The Future Expectations Indicator rose to 45.2, the
highest since July and up from 43.6 in January.
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
The indicator has moved sharply over the past year in
line with the gyrations in the exchange rate. In
February 2013, the indicator stood at a record high of
77.8 showing businesses were benefitting from the
rupee. The indicator fell into contraction in July,
before hitting a record low in October and has since
partially recovered in line with the recovery in the
rupee, although has remained below 50.
Nov-12
20
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Exchange Rate
90
0.019
80
0.018
70
60
0.017
50
40
0.016
30
20
0.015
10
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
0.014
Jan-13
0
MNI Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
US Dollar versus Indian Rupee*
*Source: Reserve Bank of India
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
77.8
31.6
30.9
43.4
39.4
44.3
44.2
Future Expectations
75.5
32.7
30.1
43.5
43.2
43.6
45.2
29

30. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
55.6
Supplier Delivery Times
Highest Since September
60
55
50
45
40
35
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
30
Jul-13
Supplier Delivery Times were expected to lengthen in
next three months, with the indicator increasing
significantly from 51.7 in January to 56.2 in February,
the highest since May 2013. The increase was led by
manufacturing and service sector companies, with
the former rising the most. The Supplier Delivery
Times indicator for construction sector companies fell
to the breakeven 50 level.
65
Jun-13
Construction sector companies reported a lengthening
in supplier delivery times to the highest since July last
year. Manufacturing companies posted a small
increase while service sector companies’ supplier
delivery times were broadly stable compared with last
month.
Supplier Delivery Times
May-13
Supplier Delivery Times have steadily lengthened
since October and they rose to 55.6 in February from
54.4 in the previous month.
Apr-13
30
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
“Our supplier’s delivery time is stable.”
General mining company
Supplier Delivery Times
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
-
58.4
52.7
52.9
54.2
54.4
55.6
Future Expectations
-
56.1
54.6
55.0
54.2
51.7
56.2

31. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
54.9
Availability of Credit
Tightens on the month
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
30
Feb-13
Businesses expected credit availability to improve
slightly in the next three months as the indicator
increased to 54.8 in February from 54.1 in the
previous month.
70
Dec-12
Service sector companies registered a considerable
decline in credit availability, with the indicator falling
below the breakeven level, while manufacturing and
construction
sector
companies
showed
an
improvement.
Availability of Credit
Nov-12
The indicator measuring the Availability of Credit fell
from 56.8 in January to 54.9, a decline of 3.3% on
the month. The indicator has remained broadly stable
since last year, averaging 53.1 in the past twelve
months.
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Construction companies, which were the least
optimistic about future credit conditions last month,
had a positive outlook for the next three months.
Manufacturing companies also expected credit
conditions to improve, with the indicator increasing to
the highest since last September. In contrast, service
sector companies were the least optimistic with the
expectations indicator falling to the breakeven level.
“There is no liquidity or credit availability in the
market.”
Speciality finance company
Availability of Credit
Feb-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Current Conditions
57.1
Future Expectations
57.6
61.9
51.3
55.7
52.6
56.8
54.9
65.3
56.6
59.2
58.8
54.1
54.8
31

32. 32
Spitzzeile Titel
What the Panel Said
A selection of comments from the panel of
businesses surveyed over the past month.

33. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
“It is the peak season for business and more orders
are coming.”
Pharmaceutical Company
“People are investing money in fixed return sources due
to instability of market.”
Investment Services Company
“Our company has lots of new orders.”
Transportation Service Company
“The company’s situation is good in terms of finance and
business, however due to the increase in the cost of raw
materials there is less profitability.”
Chemicals Manufacturing Company
“The entertainment business is running successfully.”
Entertainment Services Company
“Our supplier’s delivery time is stable.”
General Mining Company
“We are expecting an improvement in overall business
conditions after elections.”
Real Estate Development & Holding Company
“The business condition is better because of wedding
season that ends in March, after which it is expected
to slow down.”
Hotel
“We are looking forward to positive growth in business
in the coming months.”
Investment Services Company
“There is too much competition in the market and
customers are very sensitive about prices, so we cannot
increase the prices of our products.”
Financial Services Company
“We are not hiring any new people.”
Real Estate Development & Holding Company
“The company’s order book is full.”
Containers & Packaging Company
“Raw materials have become costly.”
Containers & Packaging Company
“Interest rates have increased but banks are not pushing
higher interest costs on to customers.”
Speciality Finance Company
“Credit is available only to some big players and those
who have high goodwill.”
Leasing & Finance Company
“There are no pending orders.”
Consumer Goods Manufacturing Company
“The vendor’s delivery time has declined.”
Financial Services Company
“Our company is operating at its optimum capacity.”
Containers & Packaging Company
“The raw material costs are high.”
General Mining Company
“Our company’s business condition depends on the
country’s real estate situation and from last few months,
it has remained stable.”
Furnishings Company
“Input prices are higher because of pricy imports.”
Containers & Packaging Company
“Our company will recruit more employees in the
coming months.”
Electrical Component and Equipment Company
“There are three big orders with our company this
month.”
Heavy Construction Company
“There is no liquidity or credit availability in the market‘.”
Speciality Finance Company
33

34. 34
Spitzzeile Titel
Data Tables
35
Historical Summary
36
Historical Records
37 Historical Records - Quarterly

35. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Historical Summary
2013
2014
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Current Conditions
53.6
56.1
47.5
50.5
60.6
51.8
64.0
59.4
59.8
64.6
57.8
63.4
58.2
Future Expectations
53.8
55.4
49.7
52.0
60.6
67.6
75.5
77.1
68.8
69.5
71.1
72.0
69.5
Current Conditions
55.6
53.8
41.0
45.6
54.8
56.9
59.9
67.3
57.5
65.3
59.7
64.4
62.0
Future Expectations
49.7
55.0
41.3
51.6
59.4
76.3
71.8
76.8
64.8
68.8
66.2
71.6
69.7
Current Conditions
55.8
53.4
39.7
44.9
58.7
61.9
64.0
69.1
59.5
62.9
60.3
63.6
62.3
Future Expectations
53.2
54.9
40.4
46.4
58.4
76.8
75.0
78.5
69.5
68.5
65.4
65.5
67.2
Current Conditions
53.7
49.5
41.3
43.7
52.9
57.7
55.0
63.2
55.6
58.8
60.5
61.4
59.8
Future Expectations
56.0
54.1
45.2
50.9
62.6
68.9
62.6
75.5
57.7
60.8
67.9
62.9
68.2
Current Conditions
56.5
52.3
41.0
45.6
50.6
55.4
61.7
64.0
58.1
61.3
51.3
58.0
56.1
Future Expectations
56.1
54.8
40.7
50.9
56.7
68.8
67.4
70.3
65.1
65.2
57.5
64.3
60.0
57.8
59.3
48.5
49.4
47.0
52.9
42.9
45.3
41.7
35.6
39.8
59.6
32.8
43.6
39.4
57.5
43.4
48.8
43.7
35.2
40.1
51.8
52.3
51.3
54.1
53.3
51.3
48.9
50.0
51.8
50.8
51.8
52.3
53.6
52.0
53.4
51.1
49.5
52.2
53.4
57.5
MNI India Business
Indicator
Production
New Orders
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Employment
Current Conditions
53.2
Future Expectations
Inventories
Current Conditions
59.9
47.8
48.9
55.9
51.6
60.1
50.0
50.0
53.1
62.1
64.9
48.6
31.0
35.5
52.9
53.7
50.7
53.3
54.6
59.5
53.5
64.4
78.6
79.6
66.7
74.1
63.3
73.0
71.8
69.8
73.0
66.9
Future Expectations
74.9
74.0
62.1
72.9
65.3
72.5
66.4
69.9
72.0
Input Prices
Current Conditions
67.9
Future Expectations
Prices Received
Current Conditions
59.8
53.1
42.2
41.5
50.8
67.1
56.6
61.8
54.9
60.8
58.0
60.6
56.2
Future Expectations
55.8
57.8
45.1
47.3
49.2
73.7
57.0
67.0
57.3
63.8
56.0
60.9
61.2
Current Conditions
56.3
55.1
53.4
56.1
63.0
57.6
68.1
72.3
58.6
69.9
65.2
68.2
69.3
Future Expectations
51.6
56.2
56.0
53.5
63.1
73.3
78.0
83.3
71.1
74.2
71.3
71.5
77.2
69.2
65.5
52.9
52.8
67.2
68.6
64.8
68.4
60.3
73.2
69.2
60.5
67.3
63.7
52.9
50.0
71.7
65.9
70.2
65.2
65.9
69.6
56.8
57.9
60.7
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Effect of Rupee
Exchange Rate
Current Conditions
77.8
69.1
47.8
53.3
66.6
45.1
39.6
31.6
30.9
43.4
39.4
44.3
44.2
Future Expectations
75.5
66.6
54.2
49.4
73.1
55.8
43.8
32.7
30.1
43.5
43.2
43.6
45.2
51.9
53.1
59.6
57.1
52.5
58.4
52.7
52.9
54.2
54.4
55.6
59.0
39.5
50.9
49.6
56.1
54.6
55.0
54.2
51.7
56.2
Supplier Delivery Time
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Availability of Credit
Current Conditions
57.1
53.6
41.1
44.8
51.3
57.1
56.3
61.9
51.3
55.7
52.6
56.8
54.9
Future Expectations
57.6
53.8
40.9
47.9
52.2
60.9
59.0
65.3
56.6
59.2
58.8
54.1
54.8
35

36. 36
MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Historical Records
2012-now
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Median
Current Conditions
47.5
64.6
58.0
58.8
Future Expectations
49.7
77.1
64.8
68.8
MNI India Business Indicator
Production
Current Conditions
41.0
67.3
58.0
58.8
Future Expectations
41.3
76.8
63.3
66.2
Current Conditions
39.7
69.1
56.2
59.1
Future Expectations
40.4
78.5
63.1
65.5
Current Conditions
41.3
63.2
54.9
55.6
Future Expectations
45.2
75.5
61.0
62.6
New Orders
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Current Conditions
41.0
64.0
54.3
55.8
Future Expectations
40.7
70.3
59.8
60.0
Current Conditions
35.6
59.3
47.3
47.0
Future Expectations
32.8
59.6
44.4
43.5
Current Conditions
48.9
54.1
51.7
51.8
Future Expectations
49.5
57.5
52.7
52.3
Order Backlogs
Employment
Inventories
Current Conditions
47.8
64.9
54.9
53.1
Future Expectations
31.0
59.5
49.3
53.1
Current Conditions
63.3
79.6
71.1
71.8
Future Expectations
62.1
74.9
69.7
71.0
Input Prices
Prices Received
Current Conditions
41.5
67.1
54.9
55.8
Future Expectations
45.1
73.7
57.9
57.3
Current Conditions
53.4
72.3
61.9
61.6
Future Expectations
51.6
83.3
67.7
71.3
Current Conditions
52.8
73.2
64.6
67.2
Future Expectations
50.0
71.7
62.5
64.5
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Current Conditions
30.9
77.8
51.1
46.5
Future Expectations
30.1
75.5
50.5
45.2
Current Conditions
51.9
59.6
54.8
54.2
Future Expectations
39.5
59.0
52.7
54.4
Current Conditions
41.1
61.9
52.5
53.2
Future Expectations
40.9
65.3
55.5
56.6
Supplier Delivery Time
Availability of Credit

37. MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Historical Records - Quarterly
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Quarterly Change
Quarterly % Change
Current Conditions
52.9
58.4
60.7
2.3
3.9%
Future Expectations
54.1
73.4
69.8
-3.6
-4.9%
Current Conditions
47.1
61.4
60.8
-0.6
-1.0%
Future Expectations
50.8
75.0
66.6
-8.4
-11.2%
Current Conditions
47.8
65.0
60.9
-4.1
-6.3%
Future Expectations
48.4
76.8
67.8
-9.0
-11.7%
Current Conditions
46.0
58.6
58.3
-0.3
-0.5%
Future Expectations
52.9
69.0
62.1
-6.9
-10.0%
Current Conditions
45.7
60.4
56.9
-3.5
-5.8%
Future Expectations
49.4
68.8
62.6
-6.2
-9.0%
55.2
49.8
43.3
-6.5
-13.1%
-
46.8
45.3
-1.5
-3.2%
52.4
52.9
50.1
-2.8
-5.3%
-
53.0
50.9
-2.1
-4.0%
52.2
55.9
51.0
-4.9
-8.8%
-
47.4
52.9
5.5
11.6%
70.3
73.5
69.4
-4.1
-5.6%
-
69.7
68.1
-1.6
-2.3%
Current Conditions
44.8
61.8
57.9
-3.9
-6.3%
Future Expectations
47.2
65.9
59.0
-6.9
-10.5%
Current Conditions
57.5
66.0
64.6
-1.4
-2.1%
Future Expectations
57.5
78.2
72.2
-6.0
-7.7%
Current Conditions
57.6
67.3
67.6
0.3
0.4%
Future Expectations
58.2
67.1
64.1
-3.0
-4.5%
Current Conditions
55.9
38.8
37.9
-0.9
-2.3%
Future Expectations
58.9
44.1
38.9
-5.2
-11.8%
54.9
56.0
53.3
-2.7
-4.8%
-
52.2
54.6
2.4
4.6%
Current Conditions
45.7
58.4
53.2
-5.2
-8.9%
Future Expectations
47.0
61.7
58.2
-3.5
-5.7%
MNI India Business Indicator
Production
New Orders
Export Orders
Productive Capacity
Order Backlogs
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Employment
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Inventories
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Input Prices
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Prices Received
Financial Position
Interest Rates Paid
Effect of Rupee Exchange Rate
Supplier Delivery Time
Current Conditions
Future Expectations
Availability of Credit
37

38. 38
MNI India Business Report - February 2014
Methodology
MNI India Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of
Indian business executives at companies listed on
BSE (formerly known as the Bombay Stock Exchange).
Companies are a mix of manufacturing, service,
construction and agricultural firms.
Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a
particular business activity has increased, decreased
or remained the same compared with the previous
month as well as their expectations for three months
ahead, e.g. Is Production Higher/Same/Lower
compared with a month ago?
A diffusion indicator is then calculated by adding the
percentage share of positive responses to half the
percentage of those respondents reporting no change.
An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion,
below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50
means no change.
Data is collected via telephone interviews. Around
200 companies are surveyed each month.

39. Discovering trends in Emerging
Markets
MNI‘s Emerging Markets Indicators explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence
in Russia, India and China. Our data and monthly reports present an advance
picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers.
Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify
economic trends and make informed investment and business decisions. Our data
moves markets.
www.mni-indicators.com
Insight and data for better decisions

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