The MNI China Business Indicator eased to 53.3 in November from 55.3 in October, causing the three month trend to fall to the lowest for 12 months.

1. London,
20 November 2013
MNI CHINA BUSINESS SENTIMENT
EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. BEIJING TIME, 20 NOVEMBER 2013
MNI China Business Indicator Falls to 53.3 in November
from 55.3 in October
Media Release
New Orders Remain Firm
The MNI China Business Indicator eased to 53.3 in November from 55.3 in October,
causing the three month trend to fall to the lowest for 12 months.
Both New Orders and Production Indicators also fell back in November, but New
Orders in particular remained firm, pointing to a more sustained positive impact
from the mini-stimulus measures announced after the July State Council meeting.
Companies continued to remain optimistic about business conditions over the next
three months with the Future Expectations Indicator increasing to 57.9 in November
from 57.6 in the previous month. Hopes had been running high, both domestically
and internationally, that the “third plenum” of the Chinese Communist party’s 18th
Central Committee would unveil a series of reforms after its meeting in November,
the results of which were not known by the time the survey concluded.
An increased number of firms reported that the level of the exchange rate was
hurting business in November, as the yuan hit a new high against the US dollar.
Firms’ Financial Position worsened in November amid a further deterioration in
credit conditions and a rise in the cost of credit.
Commenting on the data, MNI Indicators Chief Economist Philip Uglow said, “While
firms reported a weakening in overall business conditions, other demand indicators
such as New Orders and Production held up better.”
“Firms, though, face tougher credit conditions and there is a question about whether
the recent pick-up following the mini-stimulus will be sustained. Reforms announced
after the third plenum could, however, support business confidence ahead,” he
added.
- ENDS -
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2. Page 2
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Public Relations
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Editorial Content:
Philip Uglow,
Chief Economist, MNI Indicators
Media Release
Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
MNI China Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of Chinese business executives at
companies listed on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. Companies
are a mix of manufacturing and service sector firms.
With over five years of history, the survey tracks and predicts Chinese economic
conditions and is an important leading indicator of GDP.
Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a particular business activity has
increased, decreased or remained the same compared with the previous month as
well as their expectations for three months ahead, e.g. is Production
higher/same/lower compared with a month ago?
Diffusion indicators are then calculated by adding the percentage share of positive
responses to half the percentage of those respondents reporting no change. An
indicator reading above 50 shows expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and a
result of 50 means no change.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone interviews (CATI) and around 200
companies are surveyed each month.
Series which show a seasonal pattern are seasonally adjusted using the US Census
Bureau’s X12 seasonal adjustment program. Seasonal factors are calculated
annually.
About MNI Indicators
MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, offers unique macro-economic data
and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and
intelligence that is unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves markets.
For more information, visit our website at www.mni-indicators.com.
media@mni-indicators.com | www.mni-indicators.com | @MNIIndicators