1. 5 marzo 2014 - 12
2014 Workshop
Conoscenza e tecnologie appropriate per la sostenibilità e la resilienza
in urbanistica
Knowledge and Appropriate Technologies for Sustainability and Resilience
in Planning
Funda Atun, Maria Pia Boni, Annapaola Canevari, Massimo Compagnoni, Luca Marescotti,
Maria Mascione, Ouejdane Mejri, Scira Menoni, Floriana Pergalani

2. LAUREA MAGISTRALE DELLA SCUOLA DI ARCHITETTURA E SOCIETÀ
Laboratorio organizzato da Luca Marescotti

3. 05 Marzo 2014
Funda Atun
The transportation system in Istanbul prone to earthquake
1
July
22,
2012
Footer
text
here

4. PART
1:
Introduction
to
risk
management

5. Definitions
The
hazard
is
the
probability
of
occurrence
of
a
particular
event
within
a
given
time-­‐period/geographic
space
Exp:
Flood,
earthquake,
landslide
etc.

6. Definitions
The
vulnerability
term
represents
the
pre-­‐disposition
of
elements
at
risk
to
be
affected,
damaged
or
destroyed
by
an
event
Exp.
Buildings,
infrastructures,
people,
services,
organizations
etc.

7. Definitions
•
Capacity
to
bounce
back
•
Capacity
to
face
uncertainties
•
Capacity
to
face
change

8. Definitions

9. Definition
of
vulnerability
in
social
sciences
(Alwang
et
al.
2001)
“A
household
is
vulnerable
to
loss
of
welfare
due
to
uncertain
events”
“Degree
of
vulnerability
is
dependent
on
the
nature
of
risk
and
household’s
response
capacity
to
risk”
“Vulnerability
is
a
time-­‐dependent
parameter
as
the
risk
and
the
household
characteristics
change
over
time.”
“The
poor
are
more
vulnerable
due
to
their
limited
access
to
resources
and
limited
response
capacities
to
risk”
7

10. Definitions
Vulnerability
relates
to
the
consequences
of
the
impact
of
a
natural
force!
In
natural
and
hard
science:
It
dominates
the
engineering
literature
on
the
topic,
where
the
emphasis
in
on
the
assessment
of
hazards
and
their
impacts,
putting
aside
the
role
of
human
systems
in
mediating
outcomes.
Vulnerability
in
this
case
is
defined
as
the
physical
vulnerability
of
the
elements
at
risk!

11. Definitions
Vulnerability
relates
to
the
consequences
of
the
impact
of
a
natural
force!
In
social
science:
Human
system
is
at
the
centre.
It
directs
attention
to
the
underlying
structural
factors
that
reduce
the
capacity
of
the
human
system
with
a
range
of
hazards,
rather
than
the
negative
impacts
following
one
specific
hazard

12. Definitions
Regional
Local
Single
asset
space – changes in the scale
Vulnerability
time
Past
Present
Accumulation
of
Assessment
of
mistakes,
creation
vulnerabilities
of
vulnerabilities
Future
Preparing
scenarios
to
mitigate
present
vulnerability

13. Questions
Changing vulnerability
1) How is vulnerability changing in an urban environment?
Current awareness and preparedness of risk
2) What are the awareness and preparedness of risk at the organizational,
tactical and public levels?
Effects on the transportation system
3) What are the effects of the outcomes of decisions coming from organizational,
tactical and public levels on the transportation system?
4) How to enhance resilience of complex transportation system against disasters?

14. Problems
are
threefold
1. Disregarding inter-dependency of components in a system
and inter-dependency among systems
2. Disregarding indirect and multiple hazards
3. Dealing with social structure as if it is separated from the
physical structure

15. Current
situation
in
Istanbul
Istanbul is the largest city in Turkey, among largest urban agglomerations in
Europe and among largest cities in the world with a population of 13 483 052
people (TUIK, 2011).
Today Istanbul is the primary city of Turkey by covering 5 512 kilometre
square area, by having 18% of Turkey’s population and 23% GDP of Turkey
(IMM, 2008).
Development plan of Istanbul city region (IMM, 2009)

16. Part
2:
Earthquake
Hazard

17. HAZARD:
Tectonic
plates
in
the
world

18. HAZARD:
Map
of
Earthquake
Epicenters
In
The
World
358,214
events
recorded
between
1963
&
1998

19. HAZARD:
Fault
lines
in
Turkey

20. Earthquake
prone
areas
in
Turkey

21. Earthquake
hazard
map

22. Microzonation
in
Istanbul
(Eastern
part)

23. Historical
Earthquakes
Epicentral
distribution
of
earthquakes
between
1905
&
2001
in
the
Marmara
Region

24. Historical
Earthquakes
Major
earthquakes
in
the
Marmara
Region
between
1500-­‐2000
(Source:
Ambrasseys
and
Jackson,
2000)
Location,
Mw,
intensity,
number
of
deaths
and
total
population
data
of
historical
earthquakes
in
1509,
1719,
1766
and
1894
in
Istanbul

25. RECENT
EVENTS:
17
August
1999
Marmara/Izmit
Earthquake

26. RECENT
EVENTS:
17
August
1999
Marmara/Izmit
Earthquake

27. RECENT
EVENTS:
12
November
1999
Duzce
Earthquake
Official Death Tool: 845
Injuries: 4.948
Damaged Housing units:
12.939
Collapsed buildings:
3.395
Umutlu
et
al.
2004,
p.316

28. RECENT
EVENTS:
12
November
1999
Duzce
Earthquake
Source:
H.
Sucuoglu
and
Tolga
Yilmaz,
Düzce,
Turkey:
A
City
Hit
by
Two
Major
Earthquakes
in
1999
within
Three
Months
(no
date)

29. DAMAGE
:
17
August
&
12
November
1999
Earthquakes
Source:
H.
Sucuoglu
and
Tolga
Yilmaz,
Düzce,
Turkey:
A
City
Hit
by
Two
Major
Earthquakes
in
1999
within
Three
Months
(no
date)

30. EARTHQUAKE
SCENARIOS
JICA&IMM
2002
Model A
Model C
Model B
Model D

31. EARTHQUAKE
SCENARIOS
JICA&IMM
2002

32. EARTHQUAKE
SCENARIO
by
Koeri,
2002

33. Changes
in
the
system
after
the
1999
Earthquake
1) New regulations added new duties, guidelines
for pre-disaster activities and processes
2) Shifting responsibility to local authorities
increase the efficiency of implementations
Intensity map of 1999 Marmara Earthquake (T.C. Ministry,
Crises Management, 2000)
3) The system is very fragmented with highly
similar responsibilities that may lead to
confusion among institutions

34. ISTANBUL
MASTER
PLAN,
2009

35. ISTANBUL
MASTER
PLAN,
2009

36. Part
3:
Vulnerability

37. Vulnerability
of
megacity
Istanbul
Rapid
urbanization
Rapid
population
growth
Rapid
economic
changes

38. Changing
vulnerability
concept
Retrospective view of vulnerability concept

39. Changing
vulnerability
concept
Retrospective view of vulnerability concept
Early
republican
era
(1923-­‐1950):
• Istanbul
lost
most
of
its
population
• Henri
Prost
prepared
the
first
plan
of
Istanbul
between
1937-­‐1951.
• The
Prost
plan
was
very
effective
on
the
development
of
the
city.
• The
essence
of
today’s
vulnerabilities:
low
quality
housing
stock
in
the
centre,
illegal
housing
and
scarce
green
spaces.
• The
plan
was
not
implemented
fully
and
some
parts
of
the
plan
were
changed
in
the
following
years.
• Some
of
the
green
spaces
that
connected
the
separated
parts
became
fragmented
and
converted
into
hotel
and
commercial
activities,
a
stadium
and
roads.
• For
achieving
the
aims
of
the
plan,
major
part
of
the
old
housing
stock
had
to
be
demolished
during
the
implementation
process.
The
remained
old
housing
stock
became
the
houses
of
low-­‐
income
newcomers
to
the
city.
Demolishing
existing
housing
stock
and
not
providing
sufficient
houses
created
housing
problem
in
the
following
years.
• The
location
of
industry
suggested
by
the
plan
became
a
part
of
the
centre
as
the
city
enlarged
beyond
the
former
districts
by
the
Fifties
with
increasing
rate
of
migration
from
rural
to
urban
areas.

40. Changing
vulnerability
concept
Rapid
development
by
the
50s
(1950-­‐1980):
• Macro-­‐form
of
the
city
dispersed
in
the
same
direction
of
the
CBD
(Central
Business
District).
• Old
residential
areas
became
the
central
districts,
surrounded
by
residential
buildings.
• By
the
establishment
of
the
first
bridge
in
1973
and
the
second
in
1988,
the
city
had
completed
decentralization
process,
as
car
ownership
was
rapidly
increasing.
• The
expansion
occurred
not
only
in
the
European
part,
but
also
in
the
Asian
part
along
the
Kadıköy
–
Kartal
axes.
• After
the
50s
central
government
left
the
regionalization
policies2
and
focused
on
the
economic
improvement
of
the
Istanbul
region.
As
a
result,
the
city
itself
and
the
Marmara
Region
developed
rapidly
and
Istanbul
became
the
heart
of
the
economy
in
Turkey.
Retrospective view of vulnerability concept

41. Changing
vulnerability
concept
Retrospective view of vulnerability concept
Globalization
trends
(1980
–
1996):
This
period
started
in
the
80s
with
globalization
trends
in
the
national
economy.
By
the
80s
industry
moved
to
Kocaeli
and
Adapazarı
in
the
eastern
part
and
to
Küçükçekmece
in
the
western
part
of
the
Istanbul
region,
which
are
the
areas
prone
to
earthquake
hazard
more
than
the
other
parts
of
the
city.
As
a
result
of
these
trends,
the
city
has
became
more
vulnerable
to
hazards,
because
of
the
low
quality
dwellings,
increased
density
and
the
industrial
production
in
between
residential
areas.
After
the
80s,
the
proportion
of
Istanbul
in
the
Turkey’s
total
population
increased
immensely
(Table
7.1).
In
1980,
the
percentage
of
Istanbul’s
population
with
respect
to
the
entire
population
was
6.2%,
and
this
number
increased
to
11.7%
in
1990.
The
number
of
buildings
grew
accordingly.
29.8%
of
all
buildings
in
Istanbul
was
constructed
between
1980
and
1989
and
this
trend
continued
in
the
next
ten-­‐year
period
between
1990-­‐2000
with
32.5%.

42. Changing
vulnerability
concept
Globalization
trends
(1996
–
present):
The
number
of
buildings
constructed
in
different
periods
helps
to
know
the
number
of
vulnerable
buildings
approximately,
because
Istanbul
became
a
first
level
earthquake
zone
in
1996.
Before
it
was
classified
as
a
second
level
earthquake
zone
and
therefore
building
codes
were
less
restrictive.
With
the
changes
of
the
building
codes
in
1997,
the
newly
constructed
buildings
became
more
resistant.
According
to
the
previously
given
numbers,
482.763
buildings
were
constructed
before
1990.
Therefore,
more
than
half
of
the
built
stock
was
built
according
to
a
less
stringent
building
code.
Retrospective view of vulnerability concept
The
1/100
000
development
plan
of
Istanbul
was
approved
in
2009
by
the
Istanbul
Metropolitan
Municipality.
The
plan
decentralizes
the
increasing
population
to
the
North
in
the
Western
part
of
Istanbul
by
opening
new
housing
areas
and
commits
the
third
airport
near
to
Black
Sea.
Having
the
natural
resources,
water
reserves,
agricultural
areas
and
forests
in
the
North,
which
are
crucial
for
sustainability
of
the
city,
forces
to
look
for
other
options.

43. VULNERABILITY:
Retrospective
view
of
80
years
of
vulnerability
• Focus
is
on
the
economic
Development
•
Rapid
increasing
rate
of
Urbanization
•
Increasing
rate
of
immigration
from
rural
to
urban
•
Moving
to
peripheries
•
Deterioration
of
old
housing
supply
•
Increasing
housing
need
• İllegal
housing
supply
• Establishing
industry
in
and
around
the
centre
•
Decreasing
urban
quality

44. VULNERABILITY:
Retrospective
view
of
80
years
of
vulnerability
• Development
through
the
lakes
in
the
Western
part,
and
through
Izmit
in
the
Eastern
part
of
the
city.
•
The
meaning
of
the
squatter
houses
had
changed
from
shelter
to
a
property
which
can
be
sold
and
rented
by
the
squatter
amnesty
law.
•
First
interaction
between
scientific
community
and
governmental
units

45. Changing
vulnerability
concept

46. Part
4:
Current
awareness
and
preparedness
of
earthquake
risk

47. Agents
and
environment
A Scheme of cognitive interactions between two agents and their
environment (Janssen 2005, p.4)
A Scheme of cognitive interactions between two agents and the
altered environment after occurrence of a disaster. (Schema modified
after Janssen 2005, p.4)

48. Agents
and
environment
Agent Typology and Environment
Public, Operational (Organizational +Tactical) and Spatial Scales

49. What
is
the
awareness
and
preparedness
of
risk
at
the
organizational,
tactical
and
public
levels?
Step
1
Questionnaire with
people from the
organizational level
Step
2
Questionnaire with
people from the
tactical level
Step
3
Questionnaire with public

50. Interviews
with
the
people
from
the
organizational
level
Step
1
• The system has improved in the last 14
years, however, it has not been tested yet
as a big event has not occurred in
Istanbul in the last 14 years after 1999
Izmit earthquake.
http://www.guvenliyasam.org/
• Education programmes are not sector
specific. They are focusing on search
and rescue activities.
• “We do everything we can do to inform
public,” such as campaigns in the TV, in
newspapers and billboards.
Registered
members:
55.000
people
Population
of
Istanbul:
12.000.000
people
%0.4
of
the
total
population
of
Istanbul

51. Interviews
with
people
from
the
tactical
level
Step
2
• There are no emergency management
training programs for everyone working in
the transportation system.
• A small group of people is trained about
search and rescue in every municipality.
First-­‐degree
disaster-­‐emergency
road.
No
parking
along
the
road
• Preparing disaster management plans is an
obligation for municipalities, however, very
few of them have their plan ready.
• Even if some has prepared the plans, there
are some problems in the implementation
phase.
Kadikoy
District
Disaster
Management
Plan

52. Interviews
with
public
Part
1:
Perception
and
awareness
of
risk
condition
and
risk
of
earthquake
Step
3
Whether
people
experienced
1999
Marmara
earthquake
(Source:
author)
Do
you
think
that
the
building
that
you
live
in
is
resistant
to
an
earthquake?
Whether
people
knew
that
Istanbul
is
located
in
an
earthquake
prone
area
before
the
occurrence
of
Marmara
earthquake
Was
the
building
checked
against
seismic
risk?

53. Interviews
with
public
Part
2:
Awareness
of
information
programmes
and
access
of
information
Step
3
The
1999 Marmara Earthquake is a milestone in the disaster risk management in Turkey. One of
the changes after the earthquake is the increasing number of information campaigns prepared both
by governmental and volunteers organizations. Although they have had extensive participation in
number, the percentage of participants in these activities is less than 0.04% of the total population
of Istanbul (according to the 2011 data). The main reasons are
• People do not know the existence of such kind of activities
• People know, but they ignore
• People know, they do not ignore but they have other priorities
• People know, but they do not believe of those activities may be successful
According to the results of the survey, 85% of them have information on mitigation works against
earthquake and information related programmes, but none of them have been actively involved in
any kind of activities related with earthquake mitigation. They mainly encounter with information
on TV and newspapers. However, most of them change the channel and do not listen or read news
related with earthquake hazard.

54. Interviews
with
public
Part
3:
Population’s
individual
preparedness
Insurance holders
Home
is
strengthened
against
earthquake
Step
3
Libraries,
wardrobes
wallmounted
Having
an
emergency
kit
at
home

55. Interviews
with
public
Describing
behaviour
patterns
of
the
users
of
transportation
system
in
case
of
an
Step
emergency
3
During an emergency, people behave instantly. Thinking
and planning before an emergency could increase the
probability of taking the right decision during an
emergency.
Trust
in
Istanbul
Metropolitan
Municipality
Trust in authorities is another important factor to
forecast behaviour pattern of public. If trust is high, most
probable people follow the orders given by the
authorities.
The results of the survey show that trust in authorities is
very low in Istanbul. People trust local authorities and
head of neighbourhood more than Istanbul Metropolitan
Municipality and government. Moreover, almost 90% of
the respondents do not trust the media
Trust in media

56. Interviews
with
public
Describing
behaviour
patterns
of
the
users
of
transportation
system
in
case
of
an
Step
emergency
3
Knowing where to go, if it is needed to leave the city
Having
a
place
to
meet
arranged
early
with
the
family
members
in
case
of
not
being
together
during
an
earthquake
An
evacuation
plan
must
consider
not
only
people
who
do
not
able
to
move
due
to
physical
or
mental
reasons.
More
than
half
of
the
respondents
do
not
know
where
evacuate
to.
As
an
evacuation
mode
most
of
the
respondents
prefer
to
use
their
own
cars
or
their
neighbour
cars.
When
considering
the
high
percentage
of
car
ownership
in
Istanbul,
it
is
very
clear
that
traffic
congestion
and
fuel
shortage
could
be
main
concerns
in
case
of
an
emergency.
Preferred transportation mode for evacuation

57. Interviews
with
public:
General
Results
Step
3
• Although public awareness of risk is very high, their preparedness level is
very low.
• Public knows about the campaigns, saw them in the media. But majority of
them ignored this information.
• People are strongly fatalistic.
• Trust in official information providers is quite low.

58. Part
5:
Transportation
system
prone
to
earthquake
risk

59. Why
transportation
system
Strongly
interdependent

60. Why
transportation
system
Strongly
interdependent
Changing importance and function
of transportation system according
to the disaster phase
Título
del
gráfico
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Category
1
Category
2
Series
1
Category
3
Series
2
Series
3
Category
4

61. Why
transportation
system
Requiring long repair times
Long-term economic impacts
because of long restoration times
in comparison with other lifelines

62. Examples:
2005
Hurricane
Katrina
Not
organizing
the
evacuation
plan
according
to
needs
of
vulnerable
population
Not
being
able
to
understand
and
address
reasons
that
discourage
people
from
evacuating
Not
providing
free
transportation
for
non-­‐drivers
Not
prioritizing
traffic
by
providing
public
transportation
modes
during
evacuation
Not
being
able
to
see
the
volume
of
the
traffic.
Due
to
traffic
jam
in
the
entrance
of
the
city
people
got
stuck
long
hours
on
the
road
and
emergency
personnel
and
carriages
with
emergency
equipment
could
not
enter
the
city
Fuel
Shortage

63. Examples:
1995
Kobe
Earthquake
The
collapsed
Hanshin
express
way,
which
connects
Kobe
and
Osaka
cities,
made
a
tap
effect
on
traffic.
Due
to
traffic
jam
rescue
activities
were
delayed
Helicopters
were
used
as
a
solution
to
traffic
jam.
However,
noise
of
the
helicopters
hampered
search
and
rescue
teams
who
were
trying
to
hear
possible
voices
coming
from
the
debris.
Ports
were
destroyed
and
reconstruction
of
the
ports
took
several
months.
Due
to
competition
between
ports,
other
ports
in
the
region
gained
importance.

64. Problems
are
threefold
1. Disregarding inter-dependency of components in a system
and inter-dependency among systems
2. Disregarding indirect and multiple hazards
3. Dealing with social structure as if it is separated from the
physical structure

65. What are the effects of the outcomes of decisions coming from
Step
3
organizational, tactical and public levels on the transportation system?

66. Emergency
road
network
in
case
of
a
major
event

67. Accessibility
/
What
if
the
system
fails?

68. Accessibility
/
What
if
the
system
fails?

69. Conclusion
How to enhance resilience of complex transportation system against
disasters?
• Failures or incidents during an emergency are emergent phenomena.
• Outcome of actions, which are defined in the plan by regulations, could be different than anticipated
due to constantly changing environment during disasters.
• Disaster management related plans have to be supported by development plans. Otherwise provided
solutions could be short-lived.
• Flexible systems could be better than too much order in terms of providing resilience.

70. Conclusion
How to enhance resilience of complex transportation system against
disasters?
Flexibility in structural system
§ Providing flexible transportation system structure
§ Using the advantages of having diverse transportation modes
Flexibility in operational system (which includes organizational and tactical parts)
§ Disaster risk management plans have to be supported by development plans
§ Disaster risk management plans shall expect that the system can fail
§ The number of knowledgeable staff has to be increased systematically
§ Organizational differences among organizations involved in disaster risk management have to be
considered in the plans.
§ The emergency plan should consider a contingency plan in case of scarcity of resources.
§ All kind of plans have to prepared by considering local characteristics
Flexibility in public
• For achieving effective public understanding on the issue, drills must include participants from the
public as well.
• If the information is clear to public, they can be easily organized and adapt themselves to the changing
situation.

71. funda.atun@polimi.it