1. Global Warming

2. Thought of the Day
What is Ihsan?
The Prophet (PBUH) said,
'That you worship Allah as if you see Him, for if
you don't see Him then truly He sees you.‘
Hadith
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3. It’s alright to be confused
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4. What do scientists know that
the rest of us don’t?
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5. The Earth Systems
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6. Global Climate System Components
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7. The Basic Questions
What controls Earth’s temperature?
How is climate changing?
Is Global Warming due to humans?
What will it be like in your lifetime?
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8. Three ways to change
the temperature of a planet
Change input
a) Solar variability
Change output
b) Earth reflectivity (albedo)
c) Greenhouse gas concentrations
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9. The Greenhouse Effect
Natural greenhouse gases make the
Earth warm and moderate
enough for life (water).
The atmosphere absorbs and re-
radiates outgoing Earth radiation.
Some Greenhouse gases
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
• Water vapor (H2O)
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10. Atmospheric Absorption Bands
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11. The Atmospheric Window
• CO2 absorbs outgoing
IR radiation and re-
radiates back to Earth
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12. The Story of Planets
Mars (~229 million km)
Earth (~150 million km)
Venus (~108 million km)
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/wallpaper/art/pia06890-1600-1200.jpg
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13. The Story of Planets
Venus Earth Mars
450°C 15°C -55°C
(would be -18°C without
natural greenhouse effect)
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14. The Keeling Curve
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15. The Present CO2 Level
• March 2013:
397.34 ppm
• March 2012:
394.45 ppm
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16. How CO2 concentration is measured
(left) CO2 Extraction Rack. (middle) Researchers at the lab measure the levels of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases in air sent in weekly from sites that are part of an international air sampling network.
(right) locations of stations for flasks collected for CO2Warming 2 isotope measurements.
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17. Past relationships between atmospheric
CO2 and surface temperature
• earth climate sensitivity to
past variations in atmospheric
CO2 by drilling into ice sheets
• Ice sheets record past
concentrations of atmospheric
CO2 by trapping bubbles of
ancient air as the ice sheet
forms
• The figure shows the
relationship between CO2 in
the atmosphere and surface
temperatures over Antarctica
spanning the last 150,000
years
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18. Ice Core containing tiny bubbles of
Ancient Air
Scientists collecting ice core samples in Antarctica. An Antarctic ice core. A slice of
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ice core containing tiny bubbles of ancient air.

19. Ice Core Data from Antarctica going
back 800,000 YBP
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20. WHEN WAS CO2 LAST AT TODAY’S LEVEL,
AND WHAT WAS THE WORLD LIKE THEN?
• most recent estimates suggest that between 5.2
and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene)
• the CO2 conc.in atm reached between 330-400
ppm
• global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than now
• sea levels higher by 10 – 25 meters
• implying that global ice volume was much less
than today
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21. Lake sediments, Tree rings and Coral
reefs for CO2 concentration records
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22. Multi-Model Averages and Assessed
Ranges for Surface Warming
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23. Ice Core Era contains no periods with concentrations
of CO2 comparable to those of the next century
(left) Atmospheric CO2 conc as observed at Mauna Loa from 1958 to 2008 (black dashed
line) and projected under the 6 SRES marker and illustrative scenario (IPCC). (right) CO2 conc
derived from EPICA and Vostok ice cores. Red bar indicates Mauna Loa measureents.
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24. Projection of CO2 and Temperature to
2100
• projection of the magnitude of
future CO2 levels due to fossil
fuel emissions and land-use
changes
• Note that global CO2 levels will
be doubled from the pre-
Industrial value (~290 ppm) in
about 70 years or by ~2075.
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25. Where CO2 comes from and goes to
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26. Emissions & Sinks
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27. Global Warming
• Global warming increased
emissions of greenhouse gases.
• Scientists agree that earth's
surface has warmed by about one
degree Fahrenheit in the past 140
years.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) concluded
that increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases are causing an
increase in the earth's surface
temperature
• Increased concentrations of
sulfate aerosols have led to
relative cooling in some regions,
generally over and downwind of
heavily industrialized areas
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28. Kyoto Protocol
• The result of negotiations at the third
Conference of the Parties (COP-3) in
Kyoto, Japan, in December of 1997.
• Sets binding greenhouse gas
emissions targets for countries that
sign and ratify the agreement.
The gases covered under the Protocol
include
• carbon dioxide
• methane
• nitrous oxide
• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
• pduorocarbons (PFCs)
• sulfur hexafluoride
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29. Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms
1. Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
2. Joint Implementation
(JI)
3. International Carbon
Trading (ICT)
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30. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• A Kyoto Protocol
program that enables
industrialized countries
to finance emissions
avoiding projects in
developing countries
and receive credit for
reductions achieved
against their own
emissions limitation
targets
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31. Joint Implementation
(JI)
• Agreements made between
two or more nations under
the auspices of the
Framework Convention on
Climate Change (FCCC)
whereby a developed
country can receive
"emissions reduction units'
when it helps to finance
projects that reduce net
emissions in another
developed country
(including countries with
economies in transition)
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32. Emissions Trading/Carbon Trading
• The creation of surplus emission
reductions at certain
stacks, vents, or similar emissions
sources
• the use of this surplus to meet or
redefine pollution requirements
applicable to other emission
sources
• allows one source to increase
emissions when another source
reduces them
• maintaining an overall constant
emission level
• Facilities that reduce emissions
substantially may "bank" their
"credits" or sell them to other
industries
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33. Carbon Footprint
Total amount of carbon dioxide
(CO2) and other greenhouse
gases such as
• methane (CH4),
• nitrous oxide (N2O),
• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
• perfluorocarbons (PFCs),
• sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
• emitted directly and indirectly
to support human activities
such as the burning of fossil
fuels, deforestation, livestock
raising, and agricultural
production
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34. Ten Signs of a Warming World

35. Global Warming 35

36. 1 Air Temperature over Land
• Weather stations on
land show that average
air temperature at the
surface is going up.
• Consequently, we see
an increase in the
number of heat wave
events and the area
affected by drought.
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37. 2 Air Temperature over Oceans
• Thermometers on ships
and floating buoys show
that air near the
ocean's surface is
getting
warmer, increasing its
ability to evaporate
water.
• In turn, we see an
increase in heavy
precipitation events and
flooding on land
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38. 3 Arctic Sea Ice
• Satellite images show that
the area covered by sea
ice in the Arctic is getting
smaller.
• Ice-free shipping routes
and newly established
access to oil resources
increase the risk of
damage to this sensitive
environment, and habitat
for marine animals is
threatened
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39. 4 Glaciers
• Historical paintings,
photographs, and other
long-term records show
that most mountain
glaciers are melting away.
• People who depend on
water from melting
glaciers for their living
needs, crops, and
livestock are facing
potential shortages.
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40. 5 Global Sea Level
• Tide gauges and satellites
that measure the distance
from their orbit to the
ocean's surface both
show that global sea level
is getting higher.
• Rising waters threaten
ecosystems, freshwater
supplies, and human
developments along
coasts.
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41. 6 Humidity
• Measurements over
land and water show
increasing
humidity, more water
vapor in the air.
• Air feels stickier when
its hot and air
Water Vapor
conditioners have to July 2002-March 2013
work harder.
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42. 7 Ocean Heat Content
• Temperature sensors on
thousands of floats that
move through the ocean
show an increase in heat
energy stored in the top
half mile of water.
• Warmer ocean water
damage coral reefs and
change marine
ecosystems, disrupting
fisheries and people
depending on them
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43. 8 Sea Surface Temperatures
• Satellite sensors and
thermometers on ships
show that temperature
of water at the ocean’s
surface is rising.
• Warmer surface water
can increase the
destructive potential of
tropical cyclones and
hurricanes
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44. 9 Snow
• Satellite images show
that the area of land
covered by snow during
spring in the Northern
Hemisphere is getting
smaller.
• Snow is melting
earlier, changing when
and how much water is
available for nature and
people.
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45. 10 Temperature of the Lower
Atmosphere
• Measurements from
satellites and weather
balloons show that the
lowest layer of the
atmosphere—where we
live is warming
• Greenhouse gases are
building up in this
layer, trapping heat
radiated from Earth's
surface and raising the
planet's temperature.
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46. Climate Models
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47. Climate of Pakistan
Rainfall Distribution
Monsoonal Zone
Monsoon (June, July, Aug, Sept) Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb)
65% of Annual Rainfall Global Warming 25% of Annual Rainfall 47

48. Climate of Pakistan
Pakistan is prone to Extreme Weather Events or Disasters,
such as
• Heavy Rains/River Flooding
• Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding
• Urban Flooding
• Snow-melt Flooding
• Cyclones/Coastal Flooding
In Pakistan, more than 70% Extreme Weather Events are
associated with Monsoon Season
It is very important to focus on Monsoon Rainfall Changes and
Weather patterns of the region
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49. Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall Shift
MONSOON – Rainfall Distribution (1961-1990)
Monsoonal
Zone
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50. Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall Shift
MONSOON – Rainfall Distribution (1991-2010)
Monsoonal
Zone
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51. Monsoonal Weather Systems – Rainfall Shift
MONSOON – Rainfall Trend (Westward Shift)
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52. Earth Day
April 22, 2013
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53. Thank You