The document discusses population and development projections for Sarasota County, Florida through 2040. It projects that the county's population will grow significantly from 327,000 in 2000 to 664,000 in 2040. To accommodate this growth, most new development will come from redevelopment of existing parking lots and structures rather than greenfield development. The document advocates planning for more dense, walkable, and transit-oriented development to meet changing consumer preferences and make the most efficient use of existing infrastructure.

1. The Opportunity The Reconstruction Of Sarasota County Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP Director, Metropolitan Institute Virginia Tech – Alexandria Center April 15, 2008

9. Life-Span of Building Function Source : Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech based on DoE Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey.

11. How Does It Change?

14. Sale Price Trends Sarasota Co. Source: http://www.sarasotarealtors.com/ accessed April 10, 2008.

15. “ Traditional” Households on the Wane – National Household Type 1960 2000 2040 HH with Children 48% 33% 28% HH without Children 52% 67% 72% Single-Person HH 13% 27% 29% Source : Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech.

16. People Turning 65 Each Year [Figures in 000s] Source: US Census Bureau – 65+ in the United States: 2005; Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros. December 2005 .

19. Neighborhood Feature Preferences Source : National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.

23. Buy-Sell Rates by Age Cohort Source: Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition”, Journal of the American Planning Association 74(1): 1-17 (2007).

24. Source: Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition”, Journal of the American Planning Association 74(1): 1-17 (2007). Figures for net buying or selling rate at age 65 – point of life cycle transition to selling. Net Buying or Selling Rates at Age 65 Sell Buy WEST MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST

29. The Opportunity The New Promise Land?

36. FAR @ about 1.50  2-3 level

38. THANK YOU!