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VUCA World
BY -Kunal Basin
Volatile
Uncertain
Complex
Ambiguous
"the new
normal”
Where did VUCA come from?
US Military started using this term in
late 90s for the post-Cold War world
Reflects a fast-paced,
increasingly unstable and
rapidly changing world
To deal with a
changing
battlescape
Business leaders face a similar,
challenging,
dynamic
landscape
Volatile
Unstable
Hard to predict
Be prepared
Match investment to risk
The challenge is
• Exponentially accelerating change
• Unexpected
• Unstable
• May be of unknown duration
• Requires accelerated decision making
• Require an urgent response
But
• Its not necessarily hard to understand
• Knowledge about it is often available
Example
Prices fluctuate after a natural disaster
How Does it impact?
• Causes fear
• Risk Aversion
Leadership Lessons
• Translate date into information
• Communicate early
• Ensure your intent is understood
We can use
• Rapid advances in computing power
• Unprecedented access to knowledge
• 24hr news
• Viral stories
• Expanding social networks & media
Uncertain
The inability to know everything,the lack
of predictability and likelihood of
“surprise” events
Uncertainty
Leadership Challenges
• Abstruse to
situation
• Insufficient
information
• More
information
• Abstruse to
understand
out come
event
The VUCA prime
The VUCA prime can be
seen as a continuum of
skill leader can develop
to help make sense
Of leading in VUCA world
VUCA : UNCERTAINTY
Victim of Uncertainty Master of Uncertainty
• See the only one out come and
does not think beyond the
immediate
• See only problem with potential
outcomes
• Clings to existing processes even
when they are inadequate
• Rely on past solution to solve
today issues
• Concerned with the here and
now
• Able to see a range of outcomes
and think in terms of confidence
intervals
• See uncertain time as
opportunities make bold moves
• Recognize issue with current
state and seeks to adapt
• Looks for flaws in the past
solution to today problem
• Concerned with the future,
looking for the weak signals
which are the harbingers of
change
Complexity
Leadership challenges
• Driver
• Where to start
• Quick wins
• lack the time
• Mitigating actions
• Stuck
Ambiguity
The haziness of reality, the potential for misreads,
and the mixed meanings of conditions; cause-and-
effect confusion.
Ambiguity – Leadership
Challenges
Failure to understand the significance of an event
High risk of miss-interpreting events and
responding inappropriately in ineffective ways
Leaders are too far removed from the source
and context of the events
Leaders act based on a limited understanding of
events and their meaning
Source: http://www.georgeambler.com/vuca-leading-in-
How to lead effectively in an Ambiguous
environment?
Listen well
Think
divergently
Set up
incremental
dividends
Source: https://hbr.org/2011/01/leading-
Ready for a VUCA
World?
The Antidote
(Solution)
Bob Johansen
VUCA Prime
Example
Adapting
VUCA&VUC
A Prime
Expectations
& Challenges
Change-
Decade
LAUNCHE
D
2001, New
Leadership
Development
Programme
Need for
Specialized
Leadership
Programs
Battle
Against
Create a vision and “make sense of the world.”
 Things Changing Rapidly.
 Clear Vision- Focused People. Right Direction
Informed Choices.
Communic
ate
Belief
see things from a more strategic & long-term perspect
Focus
Battle Against
CURIOSITY - ask questions (coach) that
challenge the status quo in your organization
every day
EMPATHY - get where people are coming
from – their hopes, fears and desires
OPEN MIND - explore new ideas, reflect and
seek constructive criticism
SIMPLIFY - chop the fat, cut through the
complexity and distill the core down to its
essence
INTUITION - use the gift of knowing without
reasoning, trust your gut and your experience
SYSTEMS THINKING - approach problems
from a holistic perspective (a system of
dynamic, interacting, interdependent parts)
DECISIVENESS - adapt quickly to changing
circumstances and make decisions with
confidence
INNOVATE OR DIE - learn from your mistakes
and continuously seek new ways to get better at
what you do
EMPOWER - value networks over hierarchy,
collaboration over control and set people free to
do great work
Ambiguity Agility
References
• What VUCA Really Means For You by Nathan Bennett
and G.James Leoine, Harvard Business Review, January
2014 (Kindle edition)
• Winning a SuperVUCA World –
saatchikevin.com/Winning_in_a_SuperVUCA_World/
• VUCA -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_co
mplexity_and_ambiguity

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VUCA WORLD

  • 3. Where did VUCA come from? US Military started using this term in late 90s for the post-Cold War world Reflects a fast-paced, increasingly unstable and rapidly changing world
  • 4. To deal with a changing battlescape Business leaders face a similar, challenging, dynamic landscape
  • 5. Volatile Unstable Hard to predict Be prepared Match investment to risk
  • 6. The challenge is • Exponentially accelerating change • Unexpected • Unstable • May be of unknown duration • Requires accelerated decision making • Require an urgent response But • Its not necessarily hard to understand • Knowledge about it is often available Example Prices fluctuate after a natural disaster
  • 7. How Does it impact? • Causes fear • Risk Aversion Leadership Lessons • Translate date into information • Communicate early • Ensure your intent is understood We can use • Rapid advances in computing power • Unprecedented access to knowledge • 24hr news • Viral stories • Expanding social networks & media
  • 8. Uncertain The inability to know everything,the lack of predictability and likelihood of “surprise” events
  • 9. Uncertainty Leadership Challenges • Abstruse to situation • Insufficient information • More information • Abstruse to understand out come event
  • 10. The VUCA prime The VUCA prime can be seen as a continuum of skill leader can develop to help make sense Of leading in VUCA world
  • 11. VUCA : UNCERTAINTY Victim of Uncertainty Master of Uncertainty • See the only one out come and does not think beyond the immediate • See only problem with potential outcomes • Clings to existing processes even when they are inadequate • Rely on past solution to solve today issues • Concerned with the here and now • Able to see a range of outcomes and think in terms of confidence intervals • See uncertain time as opportunities make bold moves • Recognize issue with current state and seeks to adapt • Looks for flaws in the past solution to today problem • Concerned with the future, looking for the weak signals which are the harbingers of change
  • 13. Leadership challenges • Driver • Where to start • Quick wins • lack the time • Mitigating actions • Stuck
  • 14. Ambiguity The haziness of reality, the potential for misreads, and the mixed meanings of conditions; cause-and- effect confusion.
  • 15. Ambiguity – Leadership Challenges Failure to understand the significance of an event High risk of miss-interpreting events and responding inappropriately in ineffective ways Leaders are too far removed from the source and context of the events Leaders act based on a limited understanding of events and their meaning Source: http://www.georgeambler.com/vuca-leading-in-
  • 16.
  • 17. How to lead effectively in an Ambiguous environment? Listen well Think divergently Set up incremental dividends Source: https://hbr.org/2011/01/leading-
  • 18. Ready for a VUCA World?
  • 20.
  • 21. Example Adapting VUCA&VUC A Prime Expectations & Challenges Change- Decade LAUNCHE D 2001, New Leadership Development Programme Need for Specialized Leadership Programs
  • 22. Battle Against Create a vision and “make sense of the world.”  Things Changing Rapidly.  Clear Vision- Focused People. Right Direction Informed Choices. Communic ate Belief see things from a more strategic & long-term perspect Focus
  • 23. Battle Against CURIOSITY - ask questions (coach) that challenge the status quo in your organization every day EMPATHY - get where people are coming from – their hopes, fears and desires OPEN MIND - explore new ideas, reflect and seek constructive criticism
  • 24. SIMPLIFY - chop the fat, cut through the complexity and distill the core down to its essence INTUITION - use the gift of knowing without reasoning, trust your gut and your experience SYSTEMS THINKING - approach problems from a holistic perspective (a system of dynamic, interacting, interdependent parts)
  • 25. DECISIVENESS - adapt quickly to changing circumstances and make decisions with confidence INNOVATE OR DIE - learn from your mistakes and continuously seek new ways to get better at what you do EMPOWER - value networks over hierarchy, collaboration over control and set people free to do great work Ambiguity Agility
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. References • What VUCA Really Means For You by Nathan Bennett and G.James Leoine, Harvard Business Review, January 2014 (Kindle edition) • Winning a SuperVUCA World – saatchikevin.com/Winning_in_a_SuperVUCA_World/ • VUCA - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_co mplexity_and_ambiguity