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My own business - do I have a chance?
Krzysztof Daniel
ex IBMer
ex Red Hatter
work @ Currency One
I like games
About me
"Go board part" by Dilaudid - Own work; modified from Image:Go_board.jpg, which was made by
user:donarreiskoffer. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
So, why are you here?
Xkcd.com, CC-BY-NC
Fast forward...
Fast forward...
But...
But...
A word of warning
So, let’s continue
Absolutely no customer has a
need to make you profitable.
First of all – user needs
Activities
Practices
Knowledge
Data
Secondly - components
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
●digital camera
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
●digital camera
●mobile phone touch interface
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
●digital camera
●mobile phone touch interface
●cloud
Let’s talk about ideas
●printing
●digital camera
●mobile phone touch interface
●cloud
●electricity
Let’s talk about ideas
One problem with the future
One problem with the future
A bit of theory
The diffusion curve
The diffusion curve
The diffusion curve
http://www.lef.csc.com/publications/911
Let’s cheat
f(time)
g(time)
Let’s cheat
Let’s define:
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:
●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:
●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.
●Certainty - how well understood a thing
is.
Let’s cheat!
Let’s define:
●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.
●Certainty - how well understood a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
Ubiquity
Certainty
Time removed.
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014/03/on-mapping-and-evolution-axis.html
Evolution vs Product
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014_11_01_archive.html
Evolution curve - idealized
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Weak signals
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2015/03/evolution-diffusion-hype-cycle-and.html
Profits
a.k.a. Wonder - I wonder what it can do.
●New
●Novel
●Unknown
●Uncertain
●Rare
●Changing
●Chaotic
Genesis
Nobody did that before!
Are you sure?
Are you ready to fail fast?
Genesis-like idea
Microsoft Bob
http://news.yahoo.com/directly-fail-worst-tech-product-132527744.html
●bottled water for pets
Thirsty dog
crispy beef
tangy fish
Thirsty dog
15th century
And some successes, too
The Internet - 1969
Some other successes
Do I have a chance?
You will die before you make
any money out of it.*
Do I have a chance?
*or at least get very old, as the evolution speed accelerates
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
●Measured
●Stable
●Predictable
●Cost of doing business
●Market penetration near 100%
●Usually invisible to the user
●Electricity, Network, Computing
Utility
●contract to fulfill
●sheer price matters
●no room for innovation
●really large scale
●nobody will see that
●existing users may not be willing to switch unless you’re
significantly cheaper
ocan you be significantly cheaper without deep
experience in the field?
Startup problems
Do I have a chance?
New electricity provider?
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
power
computing power
social network
“New” search engine?
The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
●custom built
●off-the-shelf product/rental
●maturing
Transitional phase
●IBM Watson
●cars
●virtual personal assistants (Google Now, Apple Siri, Amazon Echo)
product-to-product startup
Canonical vs Red Hat
●a number of years of really unsuccessful fight
●tough competition of free, open sourced products
●huge inertia proportional to the size of adopter
community
●product needs to be 9x better to cause replacement*
●entering still possible, time-proportional market share
product-to-product startup
* heard from one business angel, may be an approximation
No. Unless you’ve got
●a really, really good product
●a really, really good sales
●a lot of time
Do I have a chance?
Three types of innovation
●genesis
●product-to-product, utility to utility
That said...
Three types of innovation
●genesis
●product-to-product, utility-to-utility
●there is one more...
That said...
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wonder
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
peaceful competitionwonder
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of
inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
previous success is the deadliest enemy
Inertia
●to increase the overall effectiveness of sales departments [...];
●to improve the effectiveness of sales to large customers [...];
●[...] more precise monitoring of the level of customer satisfaction[...];
●[...] price policy (promotional offers, packaging of services) [...];
●[...] ATMAN Private Cloud [...];
●[...] sales of services outside Poland [...].
Inertia
http://media.atm.com.pl/en/pr/291131/atm-publishes-its-financial-report-for-the-third-quarter-of-2014
Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of
inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
companies stop here
●is a deadly threat to corporations
●is the sweet spot for startups
the wall of inertia
takes product, makes “cost of doing business” utility
examples:
●Amazon EC2
●Neostrada
product-to-utility startup
●effectiveness - when the price defends you
owhat is the cost of your own datacenter/e-mail server?
oSomething is so cheap, that suddenly everyone can afford it
lFord T
lCommodore 64
lPrinted books
●Jevons effect
Industrialization
Do I have a chance?
Absolutely!
Do I have a chance?
Open Source
Open Source
●IBM PC vs Apple Mac
●Google Android vs Apple iOS
●Sony Betamax vs JVC VHS
Open Approach
Ecosystem
The Wardley Mapping is really powerful technique:
lHS2
lHM Government
lDutch Government
lTwo very large banks
Why?
About the presentation
There is time only for this...
I work on a tool designed for mapping.
The tool is open-source (ASL 2.0).
I need you to start using it.
You need to be AWARE!
Reasons
certain kind of very interesting innovations
scale matters
different scales requires different approaches
open source helps
beware of inertia
Do I have a chance - summary
Questions?
Credits
Simon Wardley - the technique creator

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