This document discusses teaching about global climate change using emission scenarios. It focuses on the A1F1 emission scenario, which predicts rapid economic growth fueled by fossil fuels. The document provides background on the scenario and evidence it could occur, as well as uncertainties. It also offers STEM resources from NASA for teaching about climate change, including interactive tools, lessons, and data.

1. Teaching About
Global Climate
Change Using
Emission
Scenarios
By: Kristen Kane
and Brian Turner

2. Something to think about…
• This YouTube video “The Most Terrifying Video
You’ll Ever See 2” was made by a high school
teacher in an attempt to spread the word
about mitigating global climate change. This
new and improved second version of his video
is a little silly but might be a great way to start
(or perhaps finish?) a unit on global climate
change.

3. Introduction
In this presentation we will cover:
• Background information about our emission
scenario
• Evidence that the scenario may or may not
occur
• Resources to assist in teaching about the
scenario
• Incorporation of STEM methodologies and
NASA resources in the classroom

4. Why teach global climate change using
emission scenarios?
• The International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) published a report in 2007 that
described the many possible emission
scenarios that may occur within the next 100
years with regard to global climate change.
• Though it cannot be said definitively which
scenario may occur it is a good stepping stone
to research the implications of the scenario
and how humans can adapt to or mitigate it.

5. Our Scenario: A1F1
A more integrated world characterized by:
• Rapid economic growth
• World population reaching 9 billion by 2050 then
slowly decreasing
• New and efficient technologies quickly spreading
• Income and way of life converging among regions
• Extensive worldwide cultural and social
interactions
• An emphasis on fossil fuels

6. How does A1F1 differ from other
scenarios?
• A scenarios are the same except for the main
energy source (A1T= non-fossil fuel energy
source, A1B= balanced)
• B1 heads toward more of a service and
information economy, green technologies, and
global solutions to problems
• In the B2 scenario the population, economy,
and technology grow much more slowly and
problems are solved locally

7. Evidence that this scenario may occur
in the next 100 years
• Our world primarily depends on fossil fuels as an
energy resource and will likely continue to do so.
• The U.S. Energy Information Administration has
issued a report for projected energy usage from
2006-2035. Energy usage of all types are
predicted to increase but fossil fuels are still
predicted to be used primarily (although nuclear
and other renewable sources are predicted to
increase).

8. Evidence (cont.)
• Global population is predicted to continue to
increase to 9.3 billion by the year 2050 but
according to the United Nations’ press release
in May of 2011 the world’s population could
reach 10.1 billion by 2100. By the end of the
21st century it is predicted that only high
fertility countries’ populations would be
increasing and the other countries’
populations would be decreasing.

9. Evidence (cont.)
• Social and cultural interactions
already occur throughout the
world to a certain extent and
will likely increase as
technology increases and
spreads
• New technologies are spreading
very quickly throughout the
world (sometimes too fast!) and
it is expected that this will also
continue

10. Evidence that this scenario may not
occur in the next 100 years
• According to a global economic outlook it is predicted that
overall economic growth in the world will decrease at least
through 2025. Within that time frame advanced
economies will recover some and emerging economies will
slow down some.
• Overall it does appear that gap in the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) between advanced, emerging, and
developing economies will get smaller.
• Regardless, it appears when looking at all of the scenarios
that income doesn’t seem to matter that much when
comparing projected carbon dioxide levels because both B1
and A1T also have higher incomes but lower CO2 levels

11. Key uncertainties that would exist for
the A1F1 scenario to occur
• Most important- CO2 produced by humans
– As population increases the amount of CO2 will
increase in this fossil-fuel dependent scenario
• Rising sea level due to melting land and sea
ice
• Land development- as the population grows
more land will be developed eliminating CO2
absorbing trees and vegetation.

12. Changes that would have to occur for
this scenario to occur within 100 years
• Population- nothing really has to change
• Technology- more advancements in developing
countries would be needed
• Economy- not sure how the differences in
worldwide per capita income would be lessened
unless advanced economies had a major decline
(which is not part of the scenario)
• Social/cultural- we are interacting more socially
and culturally with others around the world but
it’s unknown how major differences in religion
and politics would be resolved

13. Useful resources for teaching about
climate change scenarios
• IPCC’s 2007 Synthesis Report- a great information
resource about global climate change data
(observed changes, causes, emissions scenarios,
adaptation, and mitigation
• IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios- a
good source of data for analysis as well as a
description of the scenarios
• NASA Earth Observatory- good information about
how much the Earth might warm and what the
effects may be

14. STEM resources for teaching about
global climate change
• STEM lessons from NASA Global Climate
Change Education Modules
– “Energy for Me: Sustaining My Community with
Renewable Energy”
– “Infectious Diseases and Climate Change”
– “Phytoplankton Blooms and Ocean Warming”.
– These modules are great because they list
multiple resources for different student levels.

15. STEM resources (cont.)
• NASA Global Climate Change website
– Climate Time Machine interactive- great visual
resource for students to see how sea ice, sea level,
carbon emissions, and global temperature have
changed over time
– Images and Videos- there are some great images
of climate change (before and after pictures) and
under “Climate Reel” you’ll find a site with the top
NASA videos for climate change.

16. STEM resources (cont.)
• My NASA data website
– Good lessons using multiple online resources and
actual NASA data
– Data sets can be downloaded for math
applications
– Students would likely enjoy working with real data

17. STEM resources (cont.)
• PBS LearningMedia website
– Great project-based STEM lessons using the
engineering design process
– Capturing Renewable Energy”,“Energy Production”
or “Windmills: Putting Wind Energy to Work”
would be great for learning about mitigating GCC

18. STEM Resources (cont.)
• Engineering, Go For It (eGFI)
– Lessons that look great and use EDP and PBL:
“Green Roof Design”, “Zero-Energy Home Design”,
“Solar Water Heater”, and “Life After Trash”
– These lessons would go along with learning about
mitigating global climate change very well

19. In summary…
• Using the IPCC’s emission scenarios is an effective
way to help students learn about all aspects of
global climate change (causes, effects,
adaptation, and mitigation)
• There are many STEM lessons that can be utilized
as a tool to engage students while learning about
global climate change
• There are many NASA resources that can aid in
teaching about global climate change including
videos, interactives, images, lesson plans, and
data sets