1. California: Key Races and Measures in
the 2012 Elections
What changes?
– Partisan control of the legislative bodies Senate,
Assembly and Congress
– Revenue and expenditures
– Host of coming taxation/revenue measures and
distribution of proceeds
Don Solem, President, Solem & Associates

2. What To Look For In a Race
Assuming an election race is competitive, what
does one look for? What interesting things
characterize a race?
– Money
– Expertise / Character
– National / Local Trends
– Endorsements
– Something off-beat

3. Change in California
Change doesn't come from one election, one candidate
or one ballot measure.
Change results from trends in outcomes over multiple
election cycles, with candidates, parties and laws that
are updated over time.
California in 2012 doesn't look very different from
California in 2010, but it certainly is different
compared to California in 1990.

4. Trends in California
CA was once a rock-solid GOP state, producing
presidents and senators.
CA is now a rock-solid Democratic state, especially
with minorities. This has been a consistent factor
in the past two decades.

5. US Senate
Senator Dianne Feinstein will face a GOP challenger
in November. She currently polls well against all
current possibilities.. (approx. 56% to 25% with
the rest undecided)
Senator Boxer will next face reelection in 2016.

6. US House of Representatives
Nine open seats, either from retirements or incumbents being
redistricted
Four Dem representatives redrawn to fight in two merged
districts. Berman vs Sherman in CA-30 (San Fernando Valley)
and Hahn vs Richardson in CA-44 (South LA)
Four to Six GOP seats potentially winnable for Democrats
Three Democratic seats potentially winnable for GOP

7. By the Numbers: Cook PVI
To find where the action is in California's 53 congressional districts,
we look to the closest margins. We look to districts with a low
Cook PVI score.
The Cook PVI scores are an average of voters' preferences during
the last two presidential elections, plus the number of percentage
points by which its results exceeded the national average.
In a district whose PVI score is R+2, a generic Republican
candidate would be expected to receive 2 percentage points more
votes than the national average. Likewise, a PVI score of D+3
shows that a generic Democratic candidate would be expected to
receive 3 percentage points more votes than the national average.

8. GOP Toss up seats
According to The Cook Political Report, the following
GOP seats are currently “toss up.”
– CA-7 Dan Lungren R+3 Sacramento suburbs
– CA-26 Elton Gallegly (retiring) D+3 Ventura County
– CA-31 Gary Miller (not a resident) D+2 San Bernardino
– CA-52 Brian Bilbray D+1 San Diego
The following GOP seats are currently GOP-leaning
– CA-10 Jeff Denham R+5 Modesto area
– CA-21 (new seat) R+3 South Central Valley

9. CA-7 Dan Lungren R+3
Dan Lungren defeated Dem
challenger Ami Bera in 2010, 2012 district
50% to 43%. The PVI of his
district in 2010 was R+6.
2010 district

10. CA-26 Elton Gallegly (retiring) D+3
The newly drawn CA-26 moves to the East and picks up a
lot of coastal voters who were avoided in the previous
map. The GOP must work hard to keep this seat.
2012 district
2010 district

11. CA-31 Gary Miller D+3
GOP Congressman Gary Miller lives in Diamond Bar, currently
within CA-42, a Republican stronghold. In 2012 he will be
moving to what is now CA-31, a mildly Democratic district to
the North East, to avoid a primary contest with Congressman
Ed Royce.
2010 district 2012 district

12. CA-52 Brian Bilbray D+2
Congressman Bilbray currently represents a R+3 district, but
has now been redrawn into a slightly Dem-leaning district.
2012 district
2010 district

13. California Legislature
California Republicans are not pleased with the results of the
redistricting commission. This is especially true for the
changes to the state's 40 Senate Districts.
The currently GOP stands to lose two seats to the Democrats in
November, enough to give them a supermajority able to pass
any and all tax increases.
Senators Sam Blakeslee and Tony Strickland are the most at
risk.

14. SD-17 Sam Blakeslee
Senator Blakeslee's already Dem-leaning district became
much worse for him, picking up more of the Bay Area as
the population of each district increased by nearly
100,000.2010 district 2012 district

15. SD-19 Tony Strickland
Senator Strickland's barely-Republican district gave him the
fight of his political life in 2008. His new district is much
less forgiving, so the Senator has decided to run for
Congress this year. It is likely that this seat will be a Dem
pickup. 2010 district 2012 district

16. On the June 2012 Ballot
Candidates at the state level have until March 9 to
qualify for the primary elections.
Proposition 28 – Limit of 8 years in the Senate and
6 years in the Assembly will be replaced with 12-
year limit on combined service.
Proposition 29 – Increase the tax on cigarettes to
fund cancer research.

17. On the November 2012 Ballot
$11.1 billion bond to upgrade California's water system
(might be postponed until 2014)
Government employees would no longer have union
dues automatically deducted from paychecks
Car insurance rates can be based on a person's history
of insurance coverage ("persistency discounts")
GOP redistricting referendum on the State Senate
Redistricting Plan

18. Pending Legislative Approval for 2012
AB 78 – Create a pathway to citizenship for
undocumented immigrants
SCA 5 – Reduce threshold required to pass local
parcel taxes from 66 and 2/3rds to 55%
ACA 6 – Ballot initiatives to spend money must
identify where money would come from
SCA 7 – Public bodies required to post agendas and
disclose any actions taken in meetings

19. Three Major Taxation Issues for the
November Ballot
There are three tax issues that supporters are trying to
qualify for the ballot. They must get enough
signatures by a specific deadline to qualify.
1) Tax on California Oil and Natural Gas. Revenues to Higher
Education and General Fund. Initiative Statute. (July 16. 504,760
signatures)
2) Molly Munger's California State Income Tax Increase to Support
Education Initiative. (July 12. 504,760 signatures)
3) Jerry Brown's California Tax Increase Initiative. (June 18.
807,615 signatures)

20. (reminder!)
What To Look For In a Race
Assuming an election race is competitive, what
does one look for? What interesting things
characterize a race?
– Money
– Expertise / Character
– National / Local Trends
– Endorsements
– Something off-beat