Future electricity markets: key pillars with high shares of wind and PV
20150608_COP21 Presentation-TuNur_final
1. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
1
Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe
PRESENTATION
FOR
COP
21
PARIS
2015
2. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
2
Ac&on
Plan
for
COP
21:
Facilitate
Solar
Exports
from
Africa
to
Europe
European
countries
and
North
Africa
will
benefit
from
North
African
solar
poten&al
to
meet
emissions
reduc&on
targets
while
providing
a
strong
s&mulus
to
the
North
African
economy.
Imported
Electricity
from
Concentrated
Solar
Power
(CSP)
plants
can:
1. Provide
European
countries
with
a
non-‐intermiLent
renewable
power
source;
2. Enable
governments
to
meet
2020
and
2030
renewable
energy
targets;
3. Completely
replace
high
carbon
emiPng
coal
and
oil
power
plants
and
its
aging
nuclear
fleet;
4. Reduce
dependence
on
import
fossil
fuels
including
gas.
Ac&on
Plan
for
COP21
q As
a
COP
21
commitment,
European
governments
should
open
markets
(FIT
or
clean
power
premium
regimes)
to
imports.
Current
policy
discriminates
against
imported
renewable
energy,
these
protec&onist
barriers
should
be
removed.
q As
a
COP
21
commitment,
European
governments
should
act
to
facilitate
the
transport
of
base-‐load
renewable
energy
across
European
borders
to
facilitate
import
projects.
Impor&ng
energy
from
the
South,
Europe
can
have
a
global
impact
on
CSP
deployment
while
contribu&ng
to
energy
security
in
Europe,
economic
development
in
North
Africa
and
global
climate
change
mi&ga&on.
3. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
3
What
is
Concentrated
Solar
Power?
Concentrated
Solar
Power
is
Solar
Power
with
integrated
thermal
storage.
§ CSP
concentrates
the
sun’s
radia&on
to
heat
a
transfer
fluid
(water,
molten
salt
or
oil)
to
very
high
temperatures
reaching
550
oC).
§ The
hot
fluid
flows
through
a
heat
exchanger
to
generate
steam
which
drives
a
steam
turbine
to
generate
electricity.
§ With
storage,
CSP
can
generate
‘dispatchable’
power
–
a
CSP
plant
can
operate
as
base
load
or
semi-‐base
load
power.
§ Unlike
Wind
and
Solar
PV,
CSP
with
storage
can
generate
baseload,
non-‐intermiLent
electricity.
Simple
Design,
Well
Known
Materials
§ A
CSP
plant
consists
of
a
solar
field
(field
of
mirrors
and
tower
with
receiver
on
top)
and
a
power
block
(heat
exchanger,
turbine,
generator).
§ With
molten
salt
storage,
the
profile
of
the
electricity
genera&on
can
be
similar
to
fossil
fuel
and
nuclear
power
plants.
4. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
4
Importance
of
Base-‐load
Renewables
CSP
with
storage
can
completely
replace
fossil
fuel
and
nuclear
energy
§ Fully
dispatchable
generator
delivers
firm
output
§ CSP
has
the
ability
to
shib
opera&on
upon
demand
on
peak
&mes
6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00
Photovoltaic
CSP with 16
hours storage
Time of Day
Solid power
delivery -> high
capacity factor
6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00
Photovoltaic CSP with 8
hours storage
Time of Day
Shift to peak time -> high power – fewer hours
5. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
5
The
Cost
of
CSP
The
cost
of
CSP
technology
is
falling
rapidly.
q Technological
developments,
economies
of
scale
and
use
of
local
supply
chains
are
driving
costs
down.
q In
Morocco
costs
declined
from
$193/MWh
in
2012
to
$160/MWh
in
2014.
q CSP
with
thermal
energy
storage
is
cheaper
than
PV
integrated
with
electrical
storage,
the
PV
system
cost
increase
from
100€/MWh
to
280€/
MWh.
q The
cost
of
thermal
storage
will
likely
reach
grid
parity
before
electricity
storage,
therefore
CSP
is
much
more
likely
to
replace
fossils
fuels
on
a
24/7/365
basis
than
PV
or
wind.
q The
current
high
cost
of
CSP
is
largely
due
to
the
lack
of
economies
of
scale
in
manufacturing
and
installa&on
because
low
volumes,
so
scaling
up
will
bring
down
the
costs
dras&cally
(just
as
was
done
for
PV
and
wind
power).
Today
CSP
with
storage
is
already
cheaper
than
many
off-‐shore
wind
projects.
6. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
6
CSP
with
Storage
Vs
PV
and
BaLeries
PV
without
storage
is
rela&vely
cheap
• The
increased
deployment
of
PV
technology
has
contributed
to
the
significant
decline
in
costs.
• Installed
PV
is
under
1
€/W
and
the
generates
electricity
at
a
cost
of
under
100€/MWh
BUT
PV
WITH
STORAGE
IS
STILL
VERY
EXPENSIVE!
• The
cost
of
adding
a
storage
system
can
push
the
PV
system’s
LCOE
cost
to
280€/MWh.
The
LCOE
of
CSP
Tower
systems
with
integrated
storage
is
approaching
100€/MWh
• The
LCOE
is
dependent
on
the
solar
radia&on
and
is
expected
to
be
lower
in
areas
of
higher
solar
resource
Bloomberg
NEF:
LCOE
CSP
towers
with
storage
100€/MWh
LCOE
of
Various
CSP
systems)
7. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
7
Sunbelt
areas
(red)
and
high
demand
areas
(yellow)
Solar
energy
in
the
blue
square
=
World
electricity
consump&on
“CSP
plants
could
provide
about
half
of
the
region’s
electrical
produc&on,
from
a
total
capacity
of
390GW”
(DLR)
“Global
CSP
capacity
be
in
the
region
of
1,500GW
and
with
large
storage
systems
yearly
output
could
exceed
7,800TWh
“(ESTEA)
“CSP
predicted
to
produce
2,200TWh
annually
by
2050
from
630GW
of
local
capaci&es
(not
including
export)
and
up
to
5%
of
the
annual
global
electricity
produc&on”
(IEA).
“In
theory
CSP
plants
could
produce
all
the
power
EU
and
NA
from
CSP
if
their
respec&ve
grids
are
sufficiently
interconnected”
(PWC)
“Every
hour
the
earth
receives
enough
sun
to
produce
solar
thermal
energy
equivalent
to
21
billion
tons
of
coal.”
(PWC)
8. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
8
Importance
of
Impor&ng
Power
for
Europe
Europe
currently
faces
the
following
energy
issues:
§ Lack
of
low
carbon
base-‐load
power;
§ Growing
intermiLency
due
to
the
huge
increase
of
Solar
PV
and
Wind
power;
§ 50
GW
of
old
inefficient
coal
and
oil-‐fired
power
plants
scheduled
for
decommissioning;
and
§ Nuclear
phase
out
or
freeze
programs,
from
countries
such
as
Germany,
Switzerland
and
France.
Europe
does
not
have
op&mum
solar
resource
and
land
availability
to
make
CSP
efficient
and
at
scale,
but
Europe
can
benefit
from
its
proximity
to
North
Africa.
§ CSP
energy
from
MENA
region
could
play
an
important
role
in
decarbonizing
Europe's
grid;
§ Imported
CSP
can
contribute
to
mee&ng
growing
energy
demands;
and
§ Imported
CSP
can
reduce
the
need
for
fossil
fuels
and
new
nuclear
power
plants.
Benefits
in
Europe
§ CSP
with
thermal
storage
alleviates
the
problem
of
renewable
energy
intermiLency.
§ CSP
provides
base-‐load
power
to
replace
decommissioned
inefficient
coal
and
oil-‐fired
power
plants
and
phased
out
nuclear
power.
§ Impor&ng
CSP
from
North
Africa
costs
less
than
producing
electricity
from
CSP
in
Europe,
due
to
higher
DNI
in
MENA
region,
and
the
availability
of
proven,
reliable
HVDC
cable
technology.
9. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
9
Importance
of
Expor&ng
for
North
Africa
The
TuNur
project,
a
2GW
solar
export
project
based
in
Tunisia,
with
an
HVDC
connector
to
Italy
will
contribute
significantly
to
socio-‐economic
development
of
Tunisia
and
the
region.
q Up
to
60%
of
the
project
components
will
be
locally
sourced
with
the
par&cipa&on
of
exis&ng
Tunisian
industrial
companies
and
service
providers.
q The
project
is
expected
to
create
over
15,000
much
needed
long
term
direct
and
indirect
jobs
in
Tunisia
and
the
region.
q Technology
transfer
and
local
R&D
will
contribute
to
the
building
of
a
local
supply
chain
for
CSP
for
domes&c
projects
and
with
export
poten&al
to
the
rest
of
the
MENA
region
and
beyond.
q The
Tunisian
government
will
earn
revenues
from
taxes
and
fees
for
land
use
and
rights
of
way;
and
some
of
the
generated
power
will
be
available
for
domes&c
consump&on
as
required.
q Large
scale
projects
like
TuNur
can
aLract
local
and
foreign
direct
investment
which
can
guarantee
economic
growth
in
Tunisia
and
the
region
and
contribute
to
a
poli&cal
stability.
q The
project
will
increase
energy
security
in
the
region
and
reduce
reliance
on
fossil
fuels
and
imports
which
will
lead
to
energy
self
sufficiency.
10. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
10
TuNur
will
contribute
to
socio-‐economic
development
in
Tunisia
and
energy
security
in
Europe
The
TuNur
Project
11. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
11
The
TuNur
Project
The
TuNur
project
is
a
u&lity
scale
solar
export
project
linking
North
Africa
to
Europe
to
be
built
in
2
phases.
The
project
consists
of
three
parts;
1. Solar
power
genera&on
using
CSP
tower
technology
in
the
Tunisian
Sahara
desert;
2. Dedicated
High
Voltage
transmission
from
the
power
plant
to
the
European
grid;
and
3. Distribu&on
of
over
10,000
GWh
of
dispatchable
renewable
power
to
2.5m
European
homes
across
Europe
at
prices
comparable
to
other
low
carbon
sources
such
as
off-‐shore
wind
or
new
nuclear
power
plants.
PHASE
I:
250MW
–
start
construc&on
in
2017,
first
delivery
of
power
to
Europe
in
2018/19
PHASE
II:
2000MW
-‐-‐
first
deliveries
of
power
to
Europe
2019/2020
12. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
12
TuNur
Site
Details
Réjim
Maâtoug
Tunis
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Loca&on:
Rejim
Maatoug,
South-‐Western
Tunisia,
in
the
governorate
of
Kebili
Total
size:
10,000
ha
Solar
Radia&on:
2,400
kWh/m2/year
Site
Topography:
Flat
land,
slightly
sloping
to
the
North-‐East
at
less
than
1%
14. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
14
Submarine
Interconnector
between
Tunisia
and
Italy
Submarine
cable
landing
point
located
north
of
Rome.
15. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
15
Project
Milestones
q Project
in
mid
–
late
stage
development.
Par&ally
permiLed
–
ready
to
build
est.
2016,
power
delivered
to
Europe
in
2018/19
q 10,000
hectares
site
Well
established
site
has
the
support
of
local
authori&es
and
is
located
at
the
region
of
Rejim
Maatoug,
in
Southern
Tunisia.
Independently
verified
solar
resource
based
on
3
year
on
site
data
collec&on.
q 2000
MW
GRID
CONNECTION
(STMG)
from
Italian
grid
operator
TERNA
Landing
point
North
of
Rome,
Italy
for
power
injec&on
in
Italian
Grid.
q PPA
offer
for
first
500MW
From
one
of
UK’s
largest
u&li&es;
Contract
for
Difference)
scheme
for
imported
renewables
under
considera&on
by
UK
government
q Financing
offer
of
€1.6
billion
for
first
250MW
from
pension
fund
The
project
is
also
backed
by
one
of
the
largest
UK
solar
funds,
Low
Carbon
Ltd
(through
Nur
Energie),
as
well
as
Tunisian
and
Maltese
investors
16. Expor&ng
Solar
Power
to
Europe,
June
2015
16
Nur
Energie
Ltd
TuNur
(Tunisia
office)
Nur
Power
Italy
Srl
25
North
Row
Immeuble
Eya
Corso
di
Porta
Vigen&na
London,
WC1A
1DD
Lac
2,
1053
Tunis
20122
Milano
MI
United
Kingdom
Tunisia
Italy
www.nurenergie.com
www.tunur.tn
Kevin
Sara
CEO
TuNur
Ltd
E:
ks@tunur.tn
M:
0044
780
234
4488
T:
0044
203
691
6388
Contact
Informa&on