K^2 London Keynote: Where Does Innovation Come From? - Lord Matt Ridley
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K^2 London Keynote, "Where Does Innovation Come From?" from Lord Matt Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist, presented on April 2nd, 2014.
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K^2 London Keynote: Where Does Innovation Come From? - Lord Matt Ridley
- 1. Where does innovation come from? Matt Ridley Kenshoo 2 April 2014
- 3. Are we better off?
- 4. World economic growth World Economics
- 5. World GDP per capita http://www.krusekronicle.com/2008/07/index.html
- 6. The fall of poverty The Economist*At 2005 PPP
- 7. How long does it take to earn an hour of reading light? Tallow candle 1800 – 6 hrs Kerosene lamp 1880 – 15 mins Incandescent bulb 1950 – 8 secs CF bulb 1997 – ½ sec Labour cost of 1,200 lumen hours at average US wage Nordhaus 1997: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6064.pdf
- 8. But are we healthier, happier, safer, better fed, cleverer, cleaner, kinder, freer , more peaceful, more equal?
- 10. Happier
- 12. http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/04/food-consumption-around-world.html Better fed N America Europe S America Asia Africa Kilocalories per head per day
- 14. Cleaner
- 15. BBC, ONS Kinder
- 16. Freer
- 17. More peaceful
- 18. More equal Hans Rosling https://twitter.com/HansRosling/status/400030634921312256/photo/1
- 19. How is this possible?
- 21. Hybrid ideas
- 22. ``No man ever saw a dog make fair and deliberate exchange of a bone with another dog’’ Adam Smith 1776
- 23. Comparative advantage David Ricardo 1817 Adam takes 4 hours to make a spear and 3 hours to make an axe Oz takes 1 hour to make a spear and 2 hours to make an axe If Oz makes 2 spears And Adam makes 2 axes And they trade… Then they each save an hour of work
- 26. Division of labour in nature
- 27. Species working for each other
- 28. The earliest evidence of trade Bouzougar et al. 2007. PNAS 2007 104:9964-9969; Barton et al 2009 doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.
- 30. Where does innovation come from?
- 31. Ray Kurzweil
- 33. Art Fry, inventor of the Post-it note at 3M “Innovation is a numbers game. You have to go through 5,000 to 6,000 raw ideas to find one successful business.” Trial and error
- 34. Variation
- 36. Competition
- 37. • New ideas, often serendipitous Vinyl Cassettes CDs Digital 1975 1985 1995 2005 Succession and extinction
- 38. Replication
- 40. Tasmania Henrich 2004 American Antiquity Two Tasmanians repairing and making spears (B. Duterrau, 1855)
- 41. Tierra del Fuego
- 42. The ancient cloud Maori fishing tackle; Kline and Boyd 2010
- 45. Shipping routes
- 46. Airline routes
- 48. The collective brain internet traffic : the Opte Project. Licensed under Creative Commons.
- 50. Can it go on?
- 51. ``We cannot absolutely prove that those are in error who say society has reached a turning point, that we have seen our best days, but so said all who came before us and with just as much apparent reason...On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?’’ Thomas Babington Macaulay, 1830
- 52. Population growth rate is falling…
- 54. We’re using less land to produce more food After 50 years the world uses 65% less land to produce the same amount of food “Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing” Jesse H. Ausubel, Iddo K. WernIck, Paul E. Waggoner
- 55. The shale gas bonanza
- 56. http://www.climate4you.com/ Global temperatures – up 0.35C in 35 years
- 57. Climate change is slower than expected
- 58. 1900 2007 Change Malaria won’t get worse P. Gething et al Nature 2010
- 59. 59 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/abstract “Our work was able to tease-out the CO2 fertilization effect by using mathematical modeling together with satellite data adjusted to take out the observed effects of other influences such as precipitation, air temperature, the amount of light, and land-use changes.” R. Donohue, 2013 Change in greenery, 1981-2011
- 64. World economic growth Global Real GDP