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ADVICE for the WISE




    Newsletter –August’11




                            1
Contents



Index                        Page No.

Economic Update                   4

Equity Outlook                    8

Debt Outlook                     12
Forex                             14

Commodities                       15

Real Estate                      16




                                        2
From the Desk of the CIO…


 Dear Investor,

 The turmoil in financial markets across the globe caused by the                                              Unnoticed through the global activity has been the subtle but
 rating downgrade of US Government debt by S&P will continue to                                               definitive improvement in the determination of the present
 haunt the Indian markets also for quite some time to come. While                                             government to revitalize the reforms process. While the
 there have been several heated exchanges between S&P and US                                                  worries on fiscal deficit and current account deficit still
 treasury over the accuracy of credit analysis done by S&P, we                                                remain, the recessionary worries in the rest of the world may
 believe that the ratings downgrade is in line with politico-                                                 bring about a welcome relief in commodities prices globally
 economic realities in the US – especially a dysfunctional polity                                             and hence a downward pressure on inflation in India as well.
 which has led to the recently witnessed brinkmanship regarding                                               This will auger well for the debt markets directly as RBI may
 raising the US debt ceiling. On the other hand, we certainly do not                                          then pause the interest rate hikes after maybe another 25 bps
 view this development as a sharp increase in the likelihood of                                               increase. Also for the equity markets this may come as a good
 default by the US government.                                                                                news – indirectly through an expectation of future reduction
                                                                                                              in interest costs and directly through reduction in commodity-
 During the next few weeks we will watch the real effect of the
                                                                                                              linked input costs. Hence we maintain out positive medium
 ratings downgrade percolate into the debt markets globally –
                                                                                                              term outlook for Indian equities. We have also become
 primarily through the actions of US treasury debt investors. On the
                                                                                                              neutral on long term debt owing to the above.
 real economy the impact will be felt through the subdued
 consumption and investment sentiment definitely in the US and
                                                                                                              We have suggested specific strategies based on Nifty and Gold
 potentially in the rest of the world as well. The financial markets’
                                                                                                              to play on the US debt crisis and specific single stocks in retail
 participants on the other hand will essentially be trying to second
 guess these effects and also each other in terms of the reaction to                                          and mining sector along with Nifty short to play on the
                                                                                                              hoped-for reforms in the monsoon session in the parliament.
 this development. That points in two broad directions. Flight to
                                                                                                              These are opportunistic bets on special situations which we
 safety and dumping of risky assets. Both of these may translate
                                                                                                              hope will help build our clients wealth through these
 into the global investors reducing their exposures to emerging
                                                                                                              turbulent times.
 markets significantly – at least in the near future. Hence our
 outlook on Indian equity markets is very cautious in the near term.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.21”
                                                                                                                                                                                                        3
Economic Update - Snapshot of Key
                                             Markets
                                                                                 130
                                        As on 31st   Change over   Change over   125
                                                                                                                Sensex                                     Nifty                                S&P 500                                         Nikkei 225

                                                                                 120
                                        July 2011    last month    last year     115
                                                                                 110
                                                                                 105
                    BSE Sensex             18197       (3.4%)          1.8%      100
                                                                                  95
                                                                                  90

   Equity           S&P Nifty              5482        (2.9%)          2.1%       85
                                                                                  80

   markets          S&P 500                            (2.1%)          17.3%
                                           1292
                    Nikkei 225             9833         0.2%           3.1%        8.80
                                                                                   8.30
                                                                                                                                                           10 yr Gsec

                                                                                   7.80
                                                                                   7.30
                                                                                   6.80
                    10-yr G-Sec Yield      8.45%       13 bps         65 bps
Debt Markets        Call Markets           7.65%       (10 bps)       275 bps
                    Fixed Deposit*         9.25%       100 bps        325 bps      24000
                                                                                   23000
                                                                                   22000
                                                                                   21000
                                                                                   20000
                                                                                   19000
                                                                                   18000
                    RICI Index             4034         2.3%           26.7%       17000                                                                                                                Gold
                                                                                   16000
 Commodity                                                                         15000
                    Gold (`/10gm)          23211        5.8%           30.6%
  markets
                    Crude Oil ($/bbl)       116         3.8%           53.5%           48.00
                                                                                       47.00
                                                                                       46.00                                                                                                       `/$
                                                                                       45.00
                                                                                       44.00

    Forex           Rupee/Dollar           44.15        1.3%           5.2%            43.00
                                                                                       42.00




                                                                                                           30-Aug-10




                                                                                                                                                            31-Dec-10
                                                                                                                                   31-Oct-10
                                                                                                                                               30-Nov-10
                                                                                               30-Jul-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        31-May-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  31-Jul-11
                                                                                                                       30-Sep-10




                                                                                                                                                                                    28-Feb-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                31-Mar-11
                                                                                                                                                                        31-Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    30-Jun-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                            30-Apr-11
   markets          Yen/Dollar             77.82        4.1%           11.1%
* Indicates SBI one-year FD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4
Economy Update - Global


            • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June
              to revised 57.6, improved slightly in July to 59.5 because the short term outlook
   US         on jobs & income eased amid a mix of optimistic and bad economic news in US.
            • The m-o-m unemployment rate declined to 9.1 per cent in July 11.


            • Euro-zone PMI fell to 51.1 in July from 53.8 in June 11. The slowing was due to
              near stagnation of inflows of new business & output growth.
 Europe
            • Unemployment rate in the Euro zone remained unchanged in June‘11 at 9.9%.



            • The Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 52.1 in
              July from 50.7 in June, mainly due to renewed new order growth & easing supply
  Japan       side pressures.
            • Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in June ’11 from 4.5% in May ’11


            • The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is down at 49.3 in
              July from 50.1 in June as total new order growth eased to near-stagnation amid
 Emerging     reports of lacklustre global demand.
economies   • The retail sales was up by 17.9 percent year-on-year basis in July.


                                                                                                  5
Economy Outlook - Domestic

                     IIP monthly data
16.0%
14.0%
                                                                                           • The GDP growth rate for Q4 FY11 came in at 7.8% the
12.0%                                                                                        lowest in the year while the Q1 estimates for Q1 and Q3
10.0%                                                                                        were revised upwards to 9.3 (from 8.9) and 8.3 (from an
 8.0%                                                                                        earlier 8.2) respectively. The economic growth for the year,
 6.0%
 4.0%
                                                                                             is 8.5% for 2010-’11 backed by improved farm output and
 2.0%                                                                                        growth in the services sector.
 0.0%
    Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11     • The slowdown in the rate of growth in the last quarter was
                                                                                             due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector
  • Industrial output as measured by the Index of Industrial                                 which grew at 5.5% v/s the 15.2% growth last year. A
    Production (IIP) decreased to a nine month low of 5.6%                                   slowdown was also seen in the mining, trade and hotels
    in May from a downward revised number of 5.8% (y-o-y)                                    while services, including banking and insurance witnessed
    in April. This data was according to the new base year                                   growth in the last quarter.
    (2004/05), new components and weightings.
                                                                                           • The next year growth target is 8% which we believe is
  • During the month, while manufacturing registered 5.6%                                    achievable.
    growth, mining grew at 1.4%, reflecting a delay in
    environmental     clearances     and      transportation
    bottlenecks. The electricity sector grew at a robust
    10.3%. Capital goods grew at 5.9% while Consumer
    goods were up 5.4%. Of the 22 industry groups in the                                 10.0
                                                                                                                        GDP growth
    manufacturing sector, 14 witnessed a positive growth.                                 9.0
                                                                                          8.0
  • The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year.                             7.0
    We believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation                               6.0
    may not a very efficient way of indicating long term
                                                                                          5.0
    growth. We expect the growth to eventually moderate
                                                                                          4.0
    out though high input costs may also be a dampener for
                                                                                                FY10 (Q1) FY10(Q2)   FY10(Q3)   FY10(Q4)   FY11(Q1)   FY11(Q2)   FY11(Q3)   FY11(Q4)
    manufacturing.
                                                                                                                                                                                       6
Economic Outlook - Domestic

                     Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs                                                                       • Inflation as measured by WPI increased to
30.0%
                                                     Bank Credit                        Aggregate Deposits                       9.44% in June from 9.06% (y-o-y) for the month
                                                                                                                                 of May 11. The number for April was revised
25.0%
                                                                                                                                 upwards to 9.74% from an earlier estimate of
20.0%                                                                                                                            8.66%. The increase was driven by higher fuel
15.0%
                                                                                                                                 costs and manufactured goods prices which
                                                                                                                                 increased to 12.85 (v/s 12.32% in May) and
10.0%
                                                                                                                                 7.43% (v/s 7.27 in May) respectively.
5.0%
        Jun-10   Jul-10   Aug-10   Sep-10   Oct-10   Nov-10    Dec-10   Jan-11 Feb-11    Mar-11   Apr-11     May-11   Jun-11
                                                                                                                               • We do expect WPI inflation numbers to
  • Bank credit growth rose to 21.9 percent in June*                                                                             moderate out eventually due to the monetary
    from 21.8 percent in the month of May while                                                                                  tightening stance by RBI, but below normal
    Deposits grew by 20.4 percent compared to 16.6                                                                               monsoons and increasing fuel prices may be a
    percent in May 2011.                                                                                                         cause of worry.
                                                                                                                               11.0%
  • Even though the interest rates have been increased                                                                                                                       Wholesale Price Index
    drastically over the last one year, we have seen a                                                                         10.0%

    high credit demand. Banks have also increased their                                                                         9.0%
    deposit rates and the current rate hike of 50 bps may                                                                       8.0%
    push the deposits rate even higher but with the
                                                                                                                                7.0%
    increased cost of borrowing, we may see some
    moderation in the credit offtake in the coming                                                                              6.0%
                                                                                                                                       Jun-10




                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          May-11
                                                                                                                                                Jul-10
                                                                                                                                                         Aug-10
                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                               Feb-11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-11
                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov-10
                                                                                                                                                                                             Dec-10
    months. If the macro factors like inflation persist, we
    may see further hike in the interest rates in the year.
* End of period figures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            7
Equity Outlook

Stock markets across the world saw a big correction due to the downgrade of US debt rating by S&P. S&P expressed concern about the
long term sustainability of US debt and the political wrangling during the debt limit enhancement negotiations ahead of next year’s
presidential election. This downgrade might increase borrowing costs for the businesses further slowing down macroeconomic activity.
Growth continues to weaken in US with Q2 GDP number coming in at 1.3%, 70bps below consensus expectations. The deficit reduction
program will make any significant fiscal stimulus measure almost impossible. Monetary policy might play a more prominent role in the
near term.

European central bank officials have indicated that they will continue to buy sovereign bonds of Peripheral Eurozone countries which
could help stabilize the debt markets. The fiscal situation of PIIGS countries continues to be fragile and it would require constant support
from the European central bank in the short to medium term.

In July, RBI surprised by a more than expected hike of 50 bps in repo rate and expressed concern about inflation remaining stubbornly
above expectations. RBI has increased the interest rates by 1.25% in last three months. We believe that there could be downside risks to
growth if infrastructure and manufacturing activity slows down further. We would look at a GDP growth forecast of 7.5-8% for FY12 with
a downward bias if the capex story does not revive in the second half.
Back home, the government finally seems to be taking some steps to revive the reform agenda. Increase in administered fuel prices,
clearing of Cairn-Vedanta &Reliance-BP deals and drafting of land acquisition bill are steps in that direction. Q1FY12 results so far have
been mostly inline with expectations. As expected, Private sector banks have led the earnings and we maintain our positive view on the
same.

 The S&P downgrade and concerns on global growth might lead to interest rates peaking out earlier than expected. If the correction in
crude continues, it would also help in peaking out of inflationary expectations. Markets are trading at a very reasonable valuation of 13
times FY12 earnings. However, in the immediate short term, Indian markets have also been impacted by the global volatility and we
would advise a cautious stance.
                                                                                                                                               8
Sector Outlook

       Sector     Stance                                                     Remarks


                             We believe in a large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics
                             is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the developed
Healthcare      Overweight
                             world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players
                             are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and CRAMS space


                             We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG            Overweight
                             growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.

                             Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
                             consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
BFSI             Neutral
                             good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe
                             banks will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong

                             Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth despite raw material price hikes and
Automobiles      Neutral     raging competition. We are more bullish on commercial vehicle and agricultural vehicles segment due
                             to lesser competition and higher pricing power.

                             The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over
                             other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics
E&C              Neutral
                             under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies over utilities, T&D and other
                             infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics.

                                                                                                                                         9
Sector Outlook

      Sector        Stance                                                   Remarks


                                IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts
IT/ITES           Underweight   of the world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order
                                inflows might slow down in near term.


                                Commodity prices are coming under pressure due to concerns about growth in developed parts
Metals            Underweight
                                of the world. Hence a cautious stance is recommended


                                The regulatory cap on RoE does not allow a vast value creation opportunity in the infrastructure
Energy            Underweight   owning companies. We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization
                                distorting the underlying economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.

                                The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
Telecom           Underweight   levels in the short to medium term. The huge capex incurred in the rollout of 3G services will put
                                further stress on the already stretched balance sheets. Remain cautious on Sector’s prospects.
                                Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side.
Cement            Underweight
                                We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters.

                                We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by
Power Utilities   Underweight   engineering services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal
                                prices have been on the way up putting pressure on return ratios.

                                                                                                                                      10
Mutual Funds in Focus



 1. Reliance Pharma Fund - With spells of volatility in the current markets, Pharma seems a safer bet for the medium
      term. The fund manager has displayed good stock selection skills consistently outperforming the benchmark, following
      active management style with a bias towards midcap stocks.

 2. Reliance Banking Fund - We remain bullish on the banking sector in the long term and Reliance Banking has been one
      of the top picks in the sector. Focused mainly on large cap banking stocks, this fund has been a consistent performer
      with superior management.

 3. Reliance MIP – This fund invests in a combination of debt and equity with the maximum exposure to equity capped at
      30%. In the current volatility, we recommend this fund to add stability to the portfolio owing to higher debt exposure.
      The fund management has been superior both in the debt and equity part.

                                                                                                                  Date of
                                            1 year return    3 year return Since Inception      AUM (Cr.)
                                                                                                                 Inception
Sector / Thematic
Reliance Banking                                7.4%             30.2%           32.7%            1770          28/05/2003
Reliance Pharma                                 13.2%            37.5%           28.2%             583           8/6/2004
MIP
Reliance MIP                                    5.5%             15.2%           15.2%            7,565         13/01/2004


                                                                                                                                11
Debt Outlook

      8.8
                        Yield curve
      8.7
      8.6                                                    • After the unexpected 50bps hike, the
      8.5                                                      benchmark 10 yr G-sec yield increased from
      8.4
                                                               8.33% in June’11 to 8.45% in July ‘11.
(%)




      8.3
      8.2                                                    • With no respite from the high inflation in spite
             8.3
             0.0
             0.9
             1.9
             2.8
             3.7
             4.6
             5.5
             6.5
             7.4

             9.2
            10.1
            11.1
            12.0
            12.9
            13.8
            14.7
            15.7
            16.6
            17.5
            18.4
            19.4
                                                               of monetary tightening, we expect another 25 -
                                                               50 bps hike in the year.
      • With inflationary pressure being high and a 50
        bps increase in the policy rate, the shorter term
        yields rallied in the month, though due to partial
        factoring in of the hike and relatively increased    8.60
                                                                                 10-yr G-sec yield
                                                             8.40
        liquidity, the increase was not very significant.    8.20

        Corporate bond yields which had rallied              8.00

        significantly on good investment demand prior to     7.80

                                                             7.60
        the policy, hardened across the curve tracking       7.40

        the 50 bps hike announced in the Repo rate.          7.20

                                                             7.00

      • We expect yields across the yield curve to remain    6.80


        at elevated levels. High inflation, monetary
        tightening and rising credit growth will keep the
        yields at the longer end range bound.
                                                                                                                  12
Debt Strategy


   Category    Outlook                                    Details
                             We recommend investment into short term bond funds with
                             a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to
Short Tenure                 deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the
   Debt                      short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and
                             consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till
                             these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds
                             and FMPs as an interesting investment option.


                            Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at
                            the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed
   Credit                   Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also
                            contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at
                            current levels attractive.


                            With tight liquidity and inflationary pressure being high, we
                            expect more rate hikes in the current year. But, if the crude
 Long Tenure                prices do come down significantly bringing down the inflation,
                            we may see an early peaking of interest rates making long term
    Debt
                            debt an attractive investment option. But, this would be more
                            evident in the coming few days. We hence change our stance
                            from negative to neutral.
                                                                                               13
Forex

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M)                          Trade balance and export-import data
                                                                  80                                                                                                   0
                                                                  60                    Export             Import               Trade Balance (mn $)
 3.0%                                                                                                                                                                  -5000
                                                                  40
                                                                                                                                                                       -10000
                                                                  20
 2.0%                                                              0                                                                                                   -15000
                                                                 -20                                                                                                   -20000
 1.0%

 0.0%
            USD           GBP          EURO          YEN
-1.0%                                                             • Exports for the month of May increased by 46.45% (y-o-y)
                                                                    while imports increased by 42.46% over last year. The
-2.0%                                                               trade deficit decreased to USD 7.7 bn.
-3.0%
                                                                  140000
                                                                                                                                     Capital Account Balance
-4.0%
                                                                  90000



                                                                  40000
• The Rupee appreciated against USD & Euro and depreciated
  against the British pound and Yen.                              -10000
                                                                           FY 10 (Q1)    FY 10 (Q2)   FY 10 (Q3)   FY 10 (Q4)   FY 11 (Q1)   FY 11 (Q2)   FY 11 (Q3)   FY 11 (Q4)

• Concerns over renewed sovereign debt crisis & Greek rescue
  package Debt crisis in the Eurozone dragged the Euro down      • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and
  while a potential default in U.S. dragged down the Dollar.       stands at `273133 Cr. for the fiscal while it was 37,298 Cr.
                                                                   for Q4.
• Sterling appreciated against Euro due to renewed worries       • We expect the capital account balance to remain positive
  about euro zone debt and the risks of contagion to countries     as higher interest rates would make investment in the
  like Spain and Italy                                             Indian markets attractive hence drawing investments into
                                                                   the market.
                                                                                                                                                                                    14
Commodities


                                                                                   24000
            The recent downgrade by US credit rating to AA+ by S&P has             23000                  Gold
            triggered a bout of selling across all major asset classes barring     22000
                                                                                   21000
            precious metals. Gold Futures in the COMEX has climbed to a            20000

            record $1700 an ounce following investors rush to the safer            19000
Precious                                                                           18000
            haven. As commodities are likely to correct following global           17000

 Metals     fund liquidation, any dips in gold prices should be bought.            16000
                                                                                   15000
            Coupled with the domino effect on global stock markets
            mayhem, gold is entering into a seasonally strong fourth
            quarter and gold can only go up. We continue to maintain our
            year-end target of $1780 an ounce.




                                                                                 130.0
                                                                                                                    Crude
            The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized crude         120.0
            oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US and global        110.0

            economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil prices have           100.0


Oil & Gas   topped out in the interim and can only move down from here            90.0

            on. Although, the middle east will be hit by the falling dollar       80.0

                                                                                  70.0
            income and might try to limit their production in order to
                                                                                  60.0
            support prices, we believe any such temporary uptick shall not               Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
            be sustained. This is obviously a positive news for the                      10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

            emerging markets. Expect crude oil to remain under pressure.



                                                                                                                                               15
Real Estate Outlook - I


Asset Classes                        Tier-1*                                                 Tier-II**
                Sales are under pressure as usual, Q2 & Q3 of 2011    The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the
                would clear clouds on possible correction in this     infrastructure development in these cities have
                sector. Lot of developers launching new projects      made the residential development spread across the
                since the existing ones have hit roadblocks due to    city limits. On an average price is still affordable. Key
                high prices. The loading on actual usable area has    development developer are seeing demand of 3BHK
                seen a sharp rise in Mumbai, Bangalore & Pune,        and luxury development but are only doing well if
                from an average 20% to 35%, this is another way to    the project size is limited to 100-150 units. The
 Residential
                hedge the realty prices. Investors seem to be         trend seems to be favorable since there is lot of
                interested in under development, pre-launched         demand comes from smaller cities closer to these
                projects which clearly give them appreciation         Tier-II & III cities
                without any possible speculation. RBI credit rate
                increase with tightening of construction finance to
                developer is only increasing pressure on
                developers.
                Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious      Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike
                expansion approach by corporate, this segment         Tier-I the price differentiation is double favoring
                has gone through correction. Rates per sqft have      commercial since most of them are in CBD areas.
                seen almost 30% down-trend and will be stagnant
Commercial/IT   for the coming 2-3 quarters. Surely, the segment is
                at the down-tip of the cycle, and is the best
                opportunity for companies looking for long term
                holding of real estate office space.

                                                                                                                                  16
Real Estate Outlook - II


   Asset Classes                                Tier-1*                                                Tier-II**


                         The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this       Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets
                         sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has    are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are
                         seen a major transformation on all its business         expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and
                         aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for      have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would
                         consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety,       always have capital protected due to dearth of
                         less innovation, existence with competition,            available space.
      Retail             maximizing bottom line than top-line approach
                         have been making the retailers smarter. Revenue
                         share model with a built in MG is how the deals
                         are done



                         Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit
                         commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
                         Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity
       Land              since it can be used as tangible and most credible
                         pledge against business



*Tier I markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
**Tier II markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The outlook is updated on a quarterly basis
                                                                                                                                          17
Javdekars (Pune) NCD’s at 18%-Series IV


Overview                                                           Attractiveness
•   An unlisted secured NCD issue with a fixed coupon of 18% per   • The cash flow schedule is very attractive driven by interest
    annum. NCD is a debt instrument used to raise short-term         inflows and principal repayment starting early. A good
    loans from HNIs. The funds raised through this issue will be     proportion of the total return is realized over the tenure of the
    utilized by the developer for aggregating the land for an        product through regular monthly payouts starting from the
    upcoming residential project in Tathawade in Pune.               second month itself. This considerably reduces the risk to total
                                                                     returns for investors.
Product Features                                                   • The debentures are secured with a security cover of at least
• Issue Size – `5Cr                                                  two times the outstanding debenture amount. Both the
• Tenure – 24 months extendable by 6 months                          principal and the interest are securitized and hence the default
• Denominations: ` 10,00,000, `15,00,000 and ` 25,00,000             risk is negligible.
• Fee Structure –                                                  • The IRR for this structure stands at 19.5%. This can give a
                                                                     considerable boost to the overall returns of one’s fixed income
    Investment < 25L                Investment > 25L
                                                                     portfolio.
    2.5% Upfront (1.5% Setup,       2.0% Upfront (1.0% Setup,
                                                                   • This product is a good bet on the high interest rates prevalent
    0.5% p.a. Management fee)       0.5% p.a. Management fee)
                                                                     in India now. The investors can lock in high yields which are
• Guaranteed Coupon – 18% p.a.
                                                                     not likely to increase much further.
• Frequency of Interest – Monthly
• Principal repayment – 4 equal quarterly installments
                                                                                                                                         18
BSLI FORESIGHT



BSLI Foresight is a first of its kind Type II unit linked insurance plan that provides an option to enhance the investment returns by
applying the concept of “Best Day Possible” – for both the investments as well as locking of gains.

•Foresight is 5 pay 10 year unit linked plan offering 10 different funds under self managed plan .

•Exclusive Foresight fund is offered under guaranteed option. It is 2nd generation fund of the Platinum fund series.

•The investor in foresight fund would benefit from the steep fall in the market and not merely by capital protection of Rs 10 NAV.

•It also offers the highest Net Invested Premium value achieved during the first 7 policy years.

•On death of life assured Fund Value and the Sum Assured is paid to dependants.

•Lower costs and good fund management: The lower costs associated with the product backed up by strong fund management
make this an ideal investment option when compared with its peers.

•Fund Performance:
 A snapshot of the fund performances of funds having a similar mandate are as follows:

                                 FUND PERFORMANCE AS ON 31st MARCH 2011
                                                               2                               Since
                      Category         Fund name     1 year         3 years
                                                             years                           Inception
                                   Foresight                        **
                                   Platinum Plus I   12.2% 32.3%     5.6%                       7.0%
                                   Platinum Plus II  13.7% 39.2%       **                      24.3%
                     Highest NAV
                                   Platinum Plus III 12.3%    **       **                      16.2%
                                   Platinum Plus IV  14.6%    **       **                      12.1%
                                   Platinum Premier  12.1%    **       **                      14.7%

                                                                                                                                        19
Why Karvy Private Wealth?


                                       Open Architecture – Widest array of products
   We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
     • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
     • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class
                                                       Intensive Research
 We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
 recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
 product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
 truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

                                                   Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
                                               The KPW 3-S Service promise:
 When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
 S Service Promise” :
         • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
         • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking
         • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products
                                            Pedigreed Senior Management Team

  A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
  private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
                                                                                                                                       20
Disclaimer


The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained
herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness
thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting
upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated
companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from
time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades,
if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of
shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All
employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult
their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once
the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited): Operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.
Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051
(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034)
SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236,
NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration
No.: INP000001512”




                                                                                                                                                     21
Contact Us


                                  Bangalore               080-26606126
                                  Chennai                 044-45925923
                                  Delhi                   011-43533941
                                  Goa                     0832-2731822
                                  Gurgaon                 0124-4780222
                                  Hyderabad               040-44507282
                                  Kolkata                 033-40515100
                                  Mumbai                  022-33055000
                                  Noida                   0120-4255337
                                  Pune                    020-30116238

     Email: wealth@karvy.com            SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767         Website: www.karvywealth.com


Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051
                                                                                                             22

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Advice For The Wise - August'2011

  • 1. ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter –August’11 1
  • 2. Contents Index Page No. Economic Update 4 Equity Outlook 8 Debt Outlook 12 Forex 14 Commodities 15 Real Estate 16 2
  • 3. From the Desk of the CIO… Dear Investor, The turmoil in financial markets across the globe caused by the Unnoticed through the global activity has been the subtle but rating downgrade of US Government debt by S&P will continue to definitive improvement in the determination of the present haunt the Indian markets also for quite some time to come. While government to revitalize the reforms process. While the there have been several heated exchanges between S&P and US worries on fiscal deficit and current account deficit still treasury over the accuracy of credit analysis done by S&P, we remain, the recessionary worries in the rest of the world may believe that the ratings downgrade is in line with politico- bring about a welcome relief in commodities prices globally economic realities in the US – especially a dysfunctional polity and hence a downward pressure on inflation in India as well. which has led to the recently witnessed brinkmanship regarding This will auger well for the debt markets directly as RBI may raising the US debt ceiling. On the other hand, we certainly do not then pause the interest rate hikes after maybe another 25 bps view this development as a sharp increase in the likelihood of increase. Also for the equity markets this may come as a good default by the US government. news – indirectly through an expectation of future reduction in interest costs and directly through reduction in commodity- During the next few weeks we will watch the real effect of the linked input costs. Hence we maintain out positive medium ratings downgrade percolate into the debt markets globally – term outlook for Indian equities. We have also become primarily through the actions of US treasury debt investors. On the neutral on long term debt owing to the above. real economy the impact will be felt through the subdued consumption and investment sentiment definitely in the US and We have suggested specific strategies based on Nifty and Gold potentially in the rest of the world as well. The financial markets’ to play on the US debt crisis and specific single stocks in retail participants on the other hand will essentially be trying to second guess these effects and also each other in terms of the reaction to and mining sector along with Nifty short to play on the hoped-for reforms in the monsoon session in the parliament. this development. That points in two broad directions. Flight to These are opportunistic bets on special situations which we safety and dumping of risky assets. Both of these may translate hope will help build our clients wealth through these into the global investors reducing their exposures to emerging turbulent times. markets significantly – at least in the near future. Hence our outlook on Indian equity markets is very cautious in the near term. “Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.21” 3
  • 4. Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets 130 As on 31st Change over Change over 125 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225 120 July 2011 last month last year 115 110 105 BSE Sensex 18197 (3.4%) 1.8% 100 95 90 Equity S&P Nifty 5482 (2.9%) 2.1% 85 80 markets S&P 500 (2.1%) 17.3% 1292 Nikkei 225 9833 0.2% 3.1% 8.80 8.30 10 yr Gsec 7.80 7.30 6.80 10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.45% 13 bps 65 bps Debt Markets Call Markets 7.65% (10 bps) 275 bps Fixed Deposit* 9.25% 100 bps 325 bps 24000 23000 22000 21000 20000 19000 18000 RICI Index 4034 2.3% 26.7% 17000 Gold 16000 Commodity 15000 Gold (`/10gm) 23211 5.8% 30.6% markets Crude Oil ($/bbl) 116 3.8% 53.5% 48.00 47.00 46.00 `/$ 45.00 44.00 Forex Rupee/Dollar 44.15 1.3% 5.2% 43.00 42.00 30-Aug-10 31-Dec-10 31-Oct-10 30-Nov-10 30-Jul-10 31-May-11 31-Jul-11 30-Sep-10 28-Feb-11 31-Mar-11 31-Jan-11 30-Jun-11 30-Apr-11 markets Yen/Dollar 77.82 4.1% 11.1% * Indicates SBI one-year FD 4
  • 5. Economy Update - Global • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June to revised 57.6, improved slightly in July to 59.5 because the short term outlook US on jobs & income eased amid a mix of optimistic and bad economic news in US. • The m-o-m unemployment rate declined to 9.1 per cent in July 11. • Euro-zone PMI fell to 51.1 in July from 53.8 in June 11. The slowing was due to near stagnation of inflows of new business & output growth. Europe • Unemployment rate in the Euro zone remained unchanged in June‘11 at 9.9%. • The Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 52.1 in July from 50.7 in June, mainly due to renewed new order growth & easing supply Japan side pressures. • Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in June ’11 from 4.5% in May ’11 • The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is down at 49.3 in July from 50.1 in June as total new order growth eased to near-stagnation amid Emerging reports of lacklustre global demand. economies • The retail sales was up by 17.9 percent year-on-year basis in July. 5
  • 6. Economy Outlook - Domestic IIP monthly data 16.0% 14.0% • The GDP growth rate for Q4 FY11 came in at 7.8% the 12.0% lowest in the year while the Q1 estimates for Q1 and Q3 10.0% were revised upwards to 9.3 (from 8.9) and 8.3 (from an 8.0% earlier 8.2) respectively. The economic growth for the year, 6.0% 4.0% is 8.5% for 2010-’11 backed by improved farm output and 2.0% growth in the services sector. 0.0% Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 • The slowdown in the rate of growth in the last quarter was due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector • Industrial output as measured by the Index of Industrial which grew at 5.5% v/s the 15.2% growth last year. A Production (IIP) decreased to a nine month low of 5.6% slowdown was also seen in the mining, trade and hotels in May from a downward revised number of 5.8% (y-o-y) while services, including banking and insurance witnessed in April. This data was according to the new base year growth in the last quarter. (2004/05), new components and weightings. • The next year growth target is 8% which we believe is • During the month, while manufacturing registered 5.6% achievable. growth, mining grew at 1.4%, reflecting a delay in environmental clearances and transportation bottlenecks. The electricity sector grew at a robust 10.3%. Capital goods grew at 5.9% while Consumer goods were up 5.4%. Of the 22 industry groups in the 10.0 GDP growth manufacturing sector, 14 witnessed a positive growth. 9.0 8.0 • The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year. 7.0 We believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation 6.0 may not a very efficient way of indicating long term 5.0 growth. We expect the growth to eventually moderate 4.0 out though high input costs may also be a dampener for FY10 (Q1) FY10(Q2) FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) manufacturing. 6
  • 7. Economic Outlook - Domestic Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs • Inflation as measured by WPI increased to 30.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits 9.44% in June from 9.06% (y-o-y) for the month of May 11. The number for April was revised 25.0% upwards to 9.74% from an earlier estimate of 20.0% 8.66%. The increase was driven by higher fuel 15.0% costs and manufactured goods prices which increased to 12.85 (v/s 12.32% in May) and 10.0% 7.43% (v/s 7.27 in May) respectively. 5.0% Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 • We do expect WPI inflation numbers to • Bank credit growth rose to 21.9 percent in June* moderate out eventually due to the monetary from 21.8 percent in the month of May while tightening stance by RBI, but below normal Deposits grew by 20.4 percent compared to 16.6 monsoons and increasing fuel prices may be a percent in May 2011. cause of worry. 11.0% • Even though the interest rates have been increased Wholesale Price Index drastically over the last one year, we have seen a 10.0% high credit demand. Banks have also increased their 9.0% deposit rates and the current rate hike of 50 bps may 8.0% push the deposits rate even higher but with the 7.0% increased cost of borrowing, we may see some moderation in the credit offtake in the coming 6.0% Jun-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jun-11 May-11 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Nov-10 Dec-10 months. If the macro factors like inflation persist, we may see further hike in the interest rates in the year. * End of period figures 7
  • 8. Equity Outlook Stock markets across the world saw a big correction due to the downgrade of US debt rating by S&P. S&P expressed concern about the long term sustainability of US debt and the political wrangling during the debt limit enhancement negotiations ahead of next year’s presidential election. This downgrade might increase borrowing costs for the businesses further slowing down macroeconomic activity. Growth continues to weaken in US with Q2 GDP number coming in at 1.3%, 70bps below consensus expectations. The deficit reduction program will make any significant fiscal stimulus measure almost impossible. Monetary policy might play a more prominent role in the near term. European central bank officials have indicated that they will continue to buy sovereign bonds of Peripheral Eurozone countries which could help stabilize the debt markets. The fiscal situation of PIIGS countries continues to be fragile and it would require constant support from the European central bank in the short to medium term. In July, RBI surprised by a more than expected hike of 50 bps in repo rate and expressed concern about inflation remaining stubbornly above expectations. RBI has increased the interest rates by 1.25% in last three months. We believe that there could be downside risks to growth if infrastructure and manufacturing activity slows down further. We would look at a GDP growth forecast of 7.5-8% for FY12 with a downward bias if the capex story does not revive in the second half. Back home, the government finally seems to be taking some steps to revive the reform agenda. Increase in administered fuel prices, clearing of Cairn-Vedanta &Reliance-BP deals and drafting of land acquisition bill are steps in that direction. Q1FY12 results so far have been mostly inline with expectations. As expected, Private sector banks have led the earnings and we maintain our positive view on the same. The S&P downgrade and concerns on global growth might lead to interest rates peaking out earlier than expected. If the correction in crude continues, it would also help in peaking out of inflationary expectations. Markets are trading at a very reasonable valuation of 13 times FY12 earnings. However, in the immediate short term, Indian markets have also been impacted by the global volatility and we would advise a cautious stance. 8
  • 9. Sector Outlook Sector Stance Remarks We believe in a large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the developed Healthcare Overweight world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and CRAMS space We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the FMCG Overweight growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has BFSI Neutral good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe banks will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth despite raw material price hikes and Automobiles Neutral raging competition. We are more bullish on commercial vehicle and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics E&C Neutral under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies over utilities, T&D and other infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics. 9
  • 10. Sector Outlook Sector Stance Remarks IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts IT/ITES Underweight of the world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might slow down in near term. Commodity prices are coming under pressure due to concerns about growth in developed parts Metals Underweight of the world. Hence a cautious stance is recommended The regulatory cap on RoE does not allow a vast value creation opportunity in the infrastructure Energy Underweight owning companies. We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses. The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability Telecom Underweight levels in the short to medium term. The huge capex incurred in the rollout of 3G services will put further stress on the already stretched balance sheets. Remain cautious on Sector’s prospects. Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side. Cement Underweight We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters. We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by Power Utilities Underweight engineering services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal prices have been on the way up putting pressure on return ratios. 10
  • 11. Mutual Funds in Focus 1. Reliance Pharma Fund - With spells of volatility in the current markets, Pharma seems a safer bet for the medium term. The fund manager has displayed good stock selection skills consistently outperforming the benchmark, following active management style with a bias towards midcap stocks. 2. Reliance Banking Fund - We remain bullish on the banking sector in the long term and Reliance Banking has been one of the top picks in the sector. Focused mainly on large cap banking stocks, this fund has been a consistent performer with superior management. 3. Reliance MIP – This fund invests in a combination of debt and equity with the maximum exposure to equity capped at 30%. In the current volatility, we recommend this fund to add stability to the portfolio owing to higher debt exposure. The fund management has been superior both in the debt and equity part. Date of 1 year return 3 year return Since Inception AUM (Cr.) Inception Sector / Thematic Reliance Banking 7.4% 30.2% 32.7% 1770 28/05/2003 Reliance Pharma 13.2% 37.5% 28.2% 583 8/6/2004 MIP Reliance MIP 5.5% 15.2% 15.2% 7,565 13/01/2004 11
  • 12. Debt Outlook 8.8 Yield curve 8.7 8.6 • After the unexpected 50bps hike, the 8.5 benchmark 10 yr G-sec yield increased from 8.4 8.33% in June’11 to 8.45% in July ‘11. (%) 8.3 8.2 • With no respite from the high inflation in spite 8.3 0.0 0.9 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.5 6.5 7.4 9.2 10.1 11.1 12.0 12.9 13.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.4 of monetary tightening, we expect another 25 - 50 bps hike in the year. • With inflationary pressure being high and a 50 bps increase in the policy rate, the shorter term yields rallied in the month, though due to partial factoring in of the hike and relatively increased 8.60 10-yr G-sec yield 8.40 liquidity, the increase was not very significant. 8.20 Corporate bond yields which had rallied 8.00 significantly on good investment demand prior to 7.80 7.60 the policy, hardened across the curve tracking 7.40 the 50 bps hike announced in the Repo rate. 7.20 7.00 • We expect yields across the yield curve to remain 6.80 at elevated levels. High inflation, monetary tightening and rising credit growth will keep the yields at the longer end range bound. 12
  • 13. Debt Strategy Category Outlook Details We recommend investment into short term bond funds with a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to Short Tenure deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the Debt short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds and FMPs as an interesting investment option. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Credit Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. With tight liquidity and inflationary pressure being high, we expect more rate hikes in the current year. But, if the crude Long Tenure prices do come down significantly bringing down the inflation, we may see an early peaking of interest rates making long term Debt debt an attractive investment option. But, this would be more evident in the coming few days. We hence change our stance from negative to neutral. 13
  • 14. Forex Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data 80 0 60 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) 3.0% -5000 40 -10000 20 2.0% 0 -15000 -20 -20000 1.0% 0.0% USD GBP EURO YEN -1.0% • Exports for the month of May increased by 46.45% (y-o-y) while imports increased by 42.46% over last year. The -2.0% trade deficit decreased to USD 7.7 bn. -3.0% 140000 Capital Account Balance -4.0% 90000 40000 • The Rupee appreciated against USD & Euro and depreciated against the British pound and Yen. -10000 FY 10 (Q1) FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) • Concerns over renewed sovereign debt crisis & Greek rescue package Debt crisis in the Eurozone dragged the Euro down • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and while a potential default in U.S. dragged down the Dollar. stands at `273133 Cr. for the fiscal while it was 37,298 Cr. for Q4. • Sterling appreciated against Euro due to renewed worries • We expect the capital account balance to remain positive about euro zone debt and the risks of contagion to countries as higher interest rates would make investment in the like Spain and Italy Indian markets attractive hence drawing investments into the market. 14
  • 15. Commodities 24000 The recent downgrade by US credit rating to AA+ by S&P has 23000 Gold triggered a bout of selling across all major asset classes barring 22000 21000 precious metals. Gold Futures in the COMEX has climbed to a 20000 record $1700 an ounce following investors rush to the safer 19000 Precious 18000 haven. As commodities are likely to correct following global 17000 Metals fund liquidation, any dips in gold prices should be bought. 16000 15000 Coupled with the domino effect on global stock markets mayhem, gold is entering into a seasonally strong fourth quarter and gold can only go up. We continue to maintain our year-end target of $1780 an ounce. 130.0 Crude The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized crude 120.0 oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US and global 110.0 economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil prices have 100.0 Oil & Gas topped out in the interim and can only move down from here 90.0 on. Although, the middle east will be hit by the falling dollar 80.0 70.0 income and might try to limit their production in order to 60.0 support prices, we believe any such temporary uptick shall not Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul be sustained. This is obviously a positive news for the 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 emerging markets. Expect crude oil to remain under pressure. 15
  • 16. Real Estate Outlook - I Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II** Sales are under pressure as usual, Q2 & Q3 of 2011 The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the would clear clouds on possible correction in this infrastructure development in these cities have sector. Lot of developers launching new projects made the residential development spread across the since the existing ones have hit roadblocks due to city limits. On an average price is still affordable. Key high prices. The loading on actual usable area has development developer are seeing demand of 3BHK seen a sharp rise in Mumbai, Bangalore & Pune, and luxury development but are only doing well if from an average 20% to 35%, this is another way to the project size is limited to 100-150 units. The Residential hedge the realty prices. Investors seem to be trend seems to be favorable since there is lot of interested in under development, pre-launched demand comes from smaller cities closer to these projects which clearly give them appreciation Tier-II & III cities without any possible speculation. RBI credit rate increase with tightening of construction finance to developer is only increasing pressure on developers. Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike expansion approach by corporate, this segment Tier-I the price differentiation is double favoring has gone through correction. Rates per sqft have commercial since most of them are in CBD areas. seen almost 30% down-trend and will be stagnant Commercial/IT for the coming 2-3 quarters. Surely, the segment is at the down-tip of the cycle, and is the best opportunity for companies looking for long term holding of real estate office space. 16
  • 17. Real Estate Outlook - II Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II** The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are seen a major transformation on all its business expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety, always have capital protected due to dearth of less innovation, existence with competition, available space. Retail maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have been making the retailers smarter. Revenue share model with a built in MG is how the deals are done Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent. Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity Land since it can be used as tangible and most credible pledge against business *Tier I markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta **Tier II markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The outlook is updated on a quarterly basis 17
  • 18. Javdekars (Pune) NCD’s at 18%-Series IV Overview Attractiveness • An unlisted secured NCD issue with a fixed coupon of 18% per • The cash flow schedule is very attractive driven by interest annum. NCD is a debt instrument used to raise short-term inflows and principal repayment starting early. A good loans from HNIs. The funds raised through this issue will be proportion of the total return is realized over the tenure of the utilized by the developer for aggregating the land for an product through regular monthly payouts starting from the upcoming residential project in Tathawade in Pune. second month itself. This considerably reduces the risk to total returns for investors. Product Features • The debentures are secured with a security cover of at least • Issue Size – `5Cr two times the outstanding debenture amount. Both the • Tenure – 24 months extendable by 6 months principal and the interest are securitized and hence the default • Denominations: ` 10,00,000, `15,00,000 and ` 25,00,000 risk is negligible. • Fee Structure – • The IRR for this structure stands at 19.5%. This can give a considerable boost to the overall returns of one’s fixed income Investment < 25L Investment > 25L portfolio. 2.5% Upfront (1.5% Setup, 2.0% Upfront (1.0% Setup, • This product is a good bet on the high interest rates prevalent 0.5% p.a. Management fee) 0.5% p.a. Management fee) in India now. The investors can lock in high yields which are • Guaranteed Coupon – 18% p.a. not likely to increase much further. • Frequency of Interest – Monthly • Principal repayment – 4 equal quarterly installments 18
  • 19. BSLI FORESIGHT BSLI Foresight is a first of its kind Type II unit linked insurance plan that provides an option to enhance the investment returns by applying the concept of “Best Day Possible” – for both the investments as well as locking of gains. •Foresight is 5 pay 10 year unit linked plan offering 10 different funds under self managed plan . •Exclusive Foresight fund is offered under guaranteed option. It is 2nd generation fund of the Platinum fund series. •The investor in foresight fund would benefit from the steep fall in the market and not merely by capital protection of Rs 10 NAV. •It also offers the highest Net Invested Premium value achieved during the first 7 policy years. •On death of life assured Fund Value and the Sum Assured is paid to dependants. •Lower costs and good fund management: The lower costs associated with the product backed up by strong fund management make this an ideal investment option when compared with its peers. •Fund Performance: A snapshot of the fund performances of funds having a similar mandate are as follows: FUND PERFORMANCE AS ON 31st MARCH 2011 2 Since Category Fund name 1 year 3 years years Inception Foresight ** Platinum Plus I 12.2% 32.3% 5.6% 7.0% Platinum Plus II 13.7% 39.2% ** 24.3% Highest NAV Platinum Plus III 12.3% ** ** 16.2% Platinum Plus IV 14.6% ** ** 12.1% Platinum Premier 12.1% ** ** 14.7% 19
  • 20. Why Karvy Private Wealth? Open Architecture – Widest array of products We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level : • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class Intensive Research We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio Honest, unbiased advise Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like all banks do. The KPW 3-S Service promise: When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3- S Service Promise” : • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products Pedigreed Senior Management Team A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations. 20
  • 21. Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited): Operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512” 21
  • 22. Contact Us Bangalore 080-26606126 Chennai 044-45925923 Delhi 011-43533941 Goa 0832-2731822 Gurgaon 0124-4780222 Hyderabad 040-44507282 Kolkata 033-40515100 Mumbai 022-33055000 Noida 0120-4255337 Pune 020-30116238 Email: wealth@karvy.com SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767 Website: www.karvywealth.com Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051 22