Determine IBM stock to be the best suitable for the covered call strategy. Justified our choice by considering the following factors: (i) the short duration of the strategy, (ii) current market conditions, (iii) relative valuation of IBM, (iv) relative risk of IBM, (v) volatility of your IBM's stock returns, (vi) bid-ask spread and liquidity of the stock and the option, etc.
Graphed the expected pay of for the covered call strategy for various choices
of X, assuming the stock price does not change, changes +/- 5% from the price on February 21.
The position will be liquidated on March 11 (i.e., we will buy back the call
and sell the stock) following its implementation. This is a suggested investment for an
endowment fund so carefully consider the levels of risk involved.
2. INTRODUCTION
Entity: Endowment Fund
Goal: Short Term Return
Minimal Risk
Seeking: Mildly Bullish Stock
High Trading Volume
Low Asset Volatility
Investment: International Business Machines
4. Selection Criterion
Offering Capabilities (Business Diversification)
◦ hardware, software and services
New Services Growth
◦ $3.5B in acquisitions last year
Lower Volatility / Stable Earnings
Low P/E (Relative to Industry)
High Institutional Ownership
High Liquidity (Stocks and Options)
7. Valuation
12-month target price of $227 reflects a target multiple of 13.6X, which
is at the high end of the five-year historical range for IBM, applied to our
2013 EPS estimate
We view the stock's valuation as attractive, given IBM‘s economies of
scale and relatively steady earnings performance
8. Identified Stocks
Current Call Price BA Premium Shares Call Premium
Stock Strick Volatility ∆ β θ
Price (in theory) /Stock Price we buy Get (In Theory)
Caterpillar Inc 95.60 100 2.08 20.30% 0.3449 1.86 -0.0200 0.05% 1,046 $ 2,180
Deer & Company 90.37 95 2.12 18.76% 0.3434 1.38 -0.0149 0.07% 1,106 $ 2,345
General Motors 27.68 30 0.93 28.13% 0.3412 1.69 -0.0068 0.07% 3,612 $ 3,368
3M 104.18 105 3.03 12.68% 0.4800 1.06 -0.0113 0.10% 959 $ 2,903
Intel 21.08 23 0.18 18.61% 0.1818 1.01 -0.0029 0.05% 4,743 $ 861
Harley-Davidson 52.40 55 1.72 27.08% 0.3827 1.63 -0.0152 0.06% 1,908 $ 3,286
IBM 200.32 210 3.66 14.31% 0.3213 0.62 -0.0221 0.07% 499 $ 1,827
** Rf = 0.1%
** Fund = $100,000
** All numbers come from CBOE
High risk aversionMildly bullish, don’t expect incredible gains, where the upside potential is denied by option, but minor gains in stock,
High risk aversionMildly bullish, don’t expect incredible gains, where the upside potential is denied by option, but minor gains in stock,
Offering cap, unlike SAP and Oracle, Cisco (can Because of size, not as nimble as small companies buys and integrates into IBMP/E 13.8 industry avg. 18Berkshire Hathaway : almost 7% stake (IBM) 17% (BH)Liquidity: 3.9 million stock (1.2B outstanding) 25 contracts (2000+ open int)
Consistently positive return over competitiors
Higher EBITDA multiple than average
Thank you, Ashish, for the introduction. We are going to cover three topics today – First, The Risk Management Process followed in JapanSecond, The Aftermath of the Sendai EarthquakeAnd Last, we will talk about the Lessons Learnt