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FINANCIAL ENGINEERING & Derivative PRODUCTS
COVERED CALL strategy
INTRODUCTION
Entity:       Endowment Fund


Goal:         Short Term Return
                      Minimal Risk


Seeking:              Mildly Bullish Stock
                      High Trading Volume
                      Low Asset Volatility


Investment:   International Business Machines
COVERED CALL
      STRATEGY
Covered Call Strategy
 ◦   Stock Price: $199.31
 ◦   Strike Price: $210.00
 ◦   Call Price (Ask): $3.35
 ◦   Maturity Date: July 20, 2012
Selection Criterion
Offering Capabilities (Business Diversification)
 ◦ hardware, software and services


New Services Growth
 ◦ $3.5B in acquisitions last year


Lower Volatility / Stable Earnings


Low P/E (Relative to Industry)


High Institutional Ownership


High Liquidity (Stocks and Options)
S&P: IBM
Stock Price
5 Year




3 Months
Valuation

12-month target price of $227 reflects a target multiple of 13.6X, which
is at the high end of the five-year historical range for IBM, applied to our
2013 EPS estimate


We view the stock's valuation as attractive, given IBM‘s economies of
scale and relatively steady earnings performance
Identified Stocks
                Current               Call Price                                         BA Premium     Shares   Call Premium
     Stock                 Strick                 Volatility    ∆       β        θ
                 Price                (in theory)                                        /Stock Price   we buy   Get (In Theory)
Caterpillar Inc  95.60          100         2.08 20.30%        0.3449   1.86   -0.0200         0.05%     1,046   $        2,180
Deer & Company 90.37             95         2.12 18.76%        0.3434   1.38   -0.0149         0.07%     1,106   $        2,345
General Motors   27.68           30         0.93 28.13%        0.3412   1.69   -0.0068         0.07%     3,612   $        3,368
3M              104.18          105         3.03 12.68%        0.4800   1.06   -0.0113         0.10%       959   $        2,903
Intel            21.08           23         0.18 18.61%        0.1818   1.01   -0.0029         0.05%     4,743   $          861
Harley-Davidson  52.40           55         1.72 27.08%        0.3827   1.63   -0.0152         0.06%     1,908   $        3,286
IBM             200.32          210         3.66 14.31%        0.3213   0.62   -0.0221         0.07%       499   $        1,827

** Rf = 0.1%
** Fund = $100,000
** All numbers come from CBOE
Returns
Beta
RELATIVE VALUATION
VOLATILITY
KEY STATISTICS
              FACTOR                   STATISTIC
Stock: Outstanding Shares                1.12B
Stock: Average Trading Volume            3.9M

Stock: Volatility                17.19 (Ind Avg: 29.33)
Stock: Bid-Ask Spread (3 M)              $0.06

Option: Current Trading Volume       25 Contracts

Option: Bid-Ask Spread                   $0.11
EXPECTED PAYOFF                                                            Expected
            Stock Price   Strike Stock Price     Call Price      Call Price                    Total
Stock                                                                         Gain/Loss
             @Feb20       Price   @Mar11       (Short@Feb20)   (Long@Mar11)                  Gain/Loss
                                                                              per Share
                                    209.28                             9.47             5.74    2,875.23
IBM           199.31       205       199.31             5.24           4.46             0.78      391.37
                                    189.34                             1.63           (6.35)  (3,180.21)
                                    209.28                             6.85             6.46    3,238.25
IBM           199.31       210       199.31             3.35           2.93             0.42      208.30
                                    189.34                             0.95           (7.57)  (3,792.13)
                                    209.28                             4.78             7.38    3,699.54
IBM           199.31       215       199.31             2.20           1.85             0.35      174.10
                                    189.34                             0.53           (8.30)  (4,158.09)
                                    209.28                             3.21             8.15    4,081.23
IBM           199.31       220       199.31             1.39           1.12             0.27      136.51
                                    189.34                             0.28           (8.86)  (4,437.87)
                                    209.28                             2.08             8.74    4,377.96
IBM           199.31       225       199.31             0.85           0.65             0.20      100.87
                                    189.34                             0.15           (9.26)  (4,639.34)
 Parameters
           Risk free rate = 0.1%
           Volatility = 14.36%
           Days between Mar 11 to Jul 20 = 131
           Days between Feb 20 to Mar 11 = 19
Graph: Profit/loss to stock
     Price
50.00


40.00


30.00


20.00


10.00


    -

          151   161        171            181         191           201           211         221        231      241
(10.00)


(20.00)


(30.00)


(40.00)


(50.00)

                      X = 210 Gain/Loss         X = 215 Gain/Loss         X = 220 Gain/Loss     Stock Gain/Loss
Graph: Profit/loss to stock
  Price
60.00

40.00
                               202
20.00

    -
          151   161   171   181      191   201   211    221   231   241
(20.00)

(40.00)

(60.00)
                      X = 210 Gain/Loss     Stock Gain/Loss
Greeks
Fund             100000

                                                                                     Call Price Expected
           Stock Price               Stock Price                       Call Price                                    Total
 Stock
            @Feb20        Strike      @Mar11
                                                     Expiration
                                                                     (Short@Feb20)
                                                                                   (Long@Mar1 Gain/Loss
                                                                                                                   Gain/Loss
                                                                                         1)     per Share

                                                                                                                                                Delta
                                        209.28                                                9.47         5.74       2,875.23        Delta               Theta
                                                                                                                                              position
  IBM        199.31        205          199.31              20-Jul             5.24           4.46         0.78         391.37       0.3893    0.6107     -0.0252
                                        189.34                                                1.63        (6.35)     (3,180.21)
                                                                                                                                                Delta
                                        209.28                                                6.85         6.46       3,238.25        Delta               Theta
                                                                                                                                              position
  IBM        199.31        210          199.31              20-Jul             3.35           2.93         0.42         208.30       0.2869    0.7131    -0.01224
                                        189.34                                                0.95        (7.57)     (3,792.13)
                                                                                                                                                Delta
                                        209.28                                                4.78         7.38       3,699.54        Delta               Theta
                                                                                                                                              position
  IBM        199.31        215          199.31              20-Jul             2.20           1.85         0.35         174.10       0.2014    0.7986     -0.0184
                                        189.34                                                0.53        (8.30)     (4,158.09)
                                                                                                                                                Delta
                                        209.28                                                3.21         8.15       4,081.23        Delta               Theta
                                                                                                                                              position
  IBM        199.31        220          199.31              20-Jul             1.39           1.12         0.27         136.51       0.1346    0.8654     -0.0142
                                        189.34                                                0.28        (8.86)     (4,437.87)
                                                                                                                                                Delta
                                        209.28                                                2.08         8.74       4,377.96        Delta               Theta
                                                                                                                                              position
  IBM        199.31        225          199.31              20-Jul             0.85           0.65         0.20         100.87       0.0866    0.9134     -0.0104
                                        189.34                                                0.15        (9.26)     (4,639.34)

Delta Position of Covered Call + Delta call =1

                                                   Strike                             Delta                          Delta
                                                             Increase                          Decrease                           Increase
                                                   Price                               X                             Option
Q&A



      Thank You

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Financial Engineering - Covered Call Strategy

  • 1. FINANCIAL ENGINEERING & Derivative PRODUCTS COVERED CALL strategy
  • 2. INTRODUCTION Entity: Endowment Fund Goal: Short Term Return Minimal Risk Seeking: Mildly Bullish Stock High Trading Volume Low Asset Volatility Investment: International Business Machines
  • 3. COVERED CALL STRATEGY Covered Call Strategy ◦ Stock Price: $199.31 ◦ Strike Price: $210.00 ◦ Call Price (Ask): $3.35 ◦ Maturity Date: July 20, 2012
  • 4. Selection Criterion Offering Capabilities (Business Diversification) ◦ hardware, software and services New Services Growth ◦ $3.5B in acquisitions last year Lower Volatility / Stable Earnings Low P/E (Relative to Industry) High Institutional Ownership High Liquidity (Stocks and Options)
  • 7. Valuation 12-month target price of $227 reflects a target multiple of 13.6X, which is at the high end of the five-year historical range for IBM, applied to our 2013 EPS estimate We view the stock's valuation as attractive, given IBM‘s economies of scale and relatively steady earnings performance
  • 8. Identified Stocks Current Call Price BA Premium Shares Call Premium Stock Strick Volatility ∆ β θ Price (in theory) /Stock Price we buy Get (In Theory) Caterpillar Inc 95.60 100 2.08 20.30% 0.3449 1.86 -0.0200 0.05% 1,046 $ 2,180 Deer & Company 90.37 95 2.12 18.76% 0.3434 1.38 -0.0149 0.07% 1,106 $ 2,345 General Motors 27.68 30 0.93 28.13% 0.3412 1.69 -0.0068 0.07% 3,612 $ 3,368 3M 104.18 105 3.03 12.68% 0.4800 1.06 -0.0113 0.10% 959 $ 2,903 Intel 21.08 23 0.18 18.61% 0.1818 1.01 -0.0029 0.05% 4,743 $ 861 Harley-Davidson 52.40 55 1.72 27.08% 0.3827 1.63 -0.0152 0.06% 1,908 $ 3,286 IBM 200.32 210 3.66 14.31% 0.3213 0.62 -0.0221 0.07% 499 $ 1,827 ** Rf = 0.1% ** Fund = $100,000 ** All numbers come from CBOE
  • 10. Beta
  • 13. KEY STATISTICS FACTOR STATISTIC Stock: Outstanding Shares 1.12B Stock: Average Trading Volume 3.9M Stock: Volatility 17.19 (Ind Avg: 29.33) Stock: Bid-Ask Spread (3 M) $0.06 Option: Current Trading Volume 25 Contracts Option: Bid-Ask Spread $0.11
  • 14. EXPECTED PAYOFF Expected Stock Price Strike Stock Price Call Price Call Price Total Stock Gain/Loss @Feb20 Price @Mar11 (Short@Feb20) (Long@Mar11) Gain/Loss per Share 209.28 9.47 5.74 2,875.23 IBM 199.31 205 199.31 5.24 4.46 0.78 391.37 189.34 1.63 (6.35) (3,180.21) 209.28 6.85 6.46 3,238.25 IBM 199.31 210 199.31 3.35 2.93 0.42 208.30 189.34 0.95 (7.57) (3,792.13) 209.28 4.78 7.38 3,699.54 IBM 199.31 215 199.31 2.20 1.85 0.35 174.10 189.34 0.53 (8.30) (4,158.09) 209.28 3.21 8.15 4,081.23 IBM 199.31 220 199.31 1.39 1.12 0.27 136.51 189.34 0.28 (8.86) (4,437.87) 209.28 2.08 8.74 4,377.96 IBM 199.31 225 199.31 0.85 0.65 0.20 100.87 189.34 0.15 (9.26) (4,639.34)  Parameters  Risk free rate = 0.1%  Volatility = 14.36%  Days between Mar 11 to Jul 20 = 131  Days between Feb 20 to Mar 11 = 19
  • 15. Graph: Profit/loss to stock Price 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 - 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 (10.00) (20.00) (30.00) (40.00) (50.00) X = 210 Gain/Loss X = 215 Gain/Loss X = 220 Gain/Loss Stock Gain/Loss
  • 16. Graph: Profit/loss to stock Price 60.00 40.00 202 20.00 - 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 (20.00) (40.00) (60.00) X = 210 Gain/Loss Stock Gain/Loss
  • 17. Greeks Fund 100000 Call Price Expected Stock Price Stock Price Call Price Total Stock @Feb20 Strike @Mar11 Expiration (Short@Feb20) (Long@Mar1 Gain/Loss Gain/Loss 1) per Share Delta 209.28 9.47 5.74 2,875.23 Delta Theta position IBM 199.31 205 199.31 20-Jul 5.24 4.46 0.78 391.37 0.3893 0.6107 -0.0252 189.34 1.63 (6.35) (3,180.21) Delta 209.28 6.85 6.46 3,238.25 Delta Theta position IBM 199.31 210 199.31 20-Jul 3.35 2.93 0.42 208.30 0.2869 0.7131 -0.01224 189.34 0.95 (7.57) (3,792.13) Delta 209.28 4.78 7.38 3,699.54 Delta Theta position IBM 199.31 215 199.31 20-Jul 2.20 1.85 0.35 174.10 0.2014 0.7986 -0.0184 189.34 0.53 (8.30) (4,158.09) Delta 209.28 3.21 8.15 4,081.23 Delta Theta position IBM 199.31 220 199.31 20-Jul 1.39 1.12 0.27 136.51 0.1346 0.8654 -0.0142 189.34 0.28 (8.86) (4,437.87) Delta 209.28 2.08 8.74 4,377.96 Delta Theta position IBM 199.31 225 199.31 20-Jul 0.85 0.65 0.20 100.87 0.0866 0.9134 -0.0104 189.34 0.15 (9.26) (4,639.34) Delta Position of Covered Call + Delta call =1 Strike Delta Delta Increase Decrease Increase Price X Option
  • 18. Q&A Thank You

Notas do Editor

  1. High risk aversionMildly bullish, don’t expect incredible gains, where the upside potential is denied by option, but minor gains in stock,
  2. High risk aversionMildly bullish, don’t expect incredible gains, where the upside potential is denied by option, but minor gains in stock,
  3. Offering cap, unlike SAP and Oracle, Cisco (can Because of size, not as nimble as small companies  buys and integrates into IBMP/E 13.8 industry avg. 18Berkshire Hathaway : almost 7% stake (IBM) 17% (BH)Liquidity: 3.9 million stock (1.2B outstanding) 25 contracts (2000+ open int)
  4. Consistently positive return over competitiors
  5. Higher EBITDA multiple than average
  6. Thank you, Ashish, for the introduction. We are going to cover three topics today – First, The Risk Management Process followed in JapanSecond, The Aftermath of the Sendai EarthquakeAnd Last, we will talk about the Lessons Learnt
  7. Video