State of Food Insecurity 2006

The State of
Food Insecurity in the World

2006

Eradicating world hunger –
taking stock ten years after
the World Food Summit

Acknowledgements

The State of Food Insecurity in the The following FAO staff and consultants and Agriculture Statistics Service and
World 2006 was prepared by provided technical contributions: the Socio-Economic Statistics and
Jakob Skoet and Kostas Stamoulis, Margarita Flores, Aasa Giertz and Analysis Service of the FAO Statistics
Agricultural and Development Kristian Jakobsen, Agricultural and Division.
Economics Division, under the general Development Economics Division; Deep
supervision of Prabhu Pingali, Director Ford, Commodities and Trade Division; Projections of food consumption and
of the same division. Ricardo Sibrian, Jelle Bruinsma, Gerold Boedeker and undernourishment in 2015 were
Statistics Division, coordinated the Joseph Schmidhuber, Global prepared by the FAO Global Perspective
statistical inputs and analysis to the Perspective Studies Unit; Cinzia Cerri, Studies Unit.
publication. Consultant Jorge Mernies Amanda Gordon, Seevalingum
provided advice in the planning stage. Ramasawmy, Mohamed Barre and The Electronic Publishing Policy and
Nathalie Troubat, Statistics Division; Support Branch of the General Affairs
Background papers and draft sections David Sedik, Regional Office for Europe; and Information Department (GI)
were prepared by Shahla Shapouri, and Nasredin Elamin, Regional Office provided editorial, language editing,
Economic Research Service of the United for the Near East. graphic and production services.
States Department of Agriculture; Translations were provided by the
Tugrul Temel, Agricultural Economics The key estimates on food consumption Meeting Programming and
and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen and undernourishment used in The Documentation Service of GI.
University; and Sumiter Broca, State of Food Insecurity in the World
FAO Global Perspectives Studies Unit. 2006 were produced by the Basic Food

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The State of
Food Insecurity in the World

2006

Eradicating world hunger–
taking stock ten years after
the World Food Summit

About this report

en years ago, world leaders since 1990–92, the established Two tables (pp. 32–38) provide

T met in Rome for the World
Food Summit (WFS) to
discuss ways to end hunger.
baseline period.
The first section of the report,
Undernourishment around
detailed information on levels of
undernourishment in developing and
transition countries and other
They pledged their commitment to the world, reviews trends in hunger indicators relevant to food security.
an ongoing effort to eradicate at the global, regional and The report also includes maps
hunger in all countries and set subregional levels. It also presents (page 31) illustrating the global food
themselves the immediate target of FAO’s most recent projections of security situation and progress in
halving the number of undernourishment in 2015. hunger reduction.
undernourished people by 2015. The second section,
To this purpose, they approved Undernourishment in the regions,
the World Food Summit Plan of reviews the food security situation in
Action. In October 2006, FAO’s each of the major developing
Committee on World Food Security regions and the transition countries.
is undertaking an assessment The third section, Towards
of the implementation of the the Summit commitments,
Plan of Action and a mid-term summarizes lessons from past
review of progress towards experience in hunger reduction
achieving the target. and presents FAO’s current
The State of Food Insecurity in thinking on how to accelerate
the World 2006 reviews progress progress towards meeting the WFS
and setbacks in hunger reduction target.

The World Food Summit Plan of Action

Commitments
We will ensure an enabling political, social, and economic We will strive to ensure that food, agricultural trade and
1 environment designed to create the best conditions for
the eradication of poverty and for durable peace, based on
4 overall trade policies are conducive to fostering food
security for all through a fair and market-oriented world
full and equal participation of women and men, which is trade system.
most conducive to achieving sustainable food security
for all. We will endeavour to prevent and be prepared for natural
5 disasters and man-made emergencies and to meet

2 We will implement policies aimed at eradicating poverty
and inequality and improving physical and economic access
by all, at all times, to sufficient, nutritionally adequate and
transitory and emergency food requirements in ways that
encourage recovery, rehabilitation, development and a
capacity to satisfy future needs.
safe food and its effective utilization.
We will promote optimal allocation and use of public and

3 We will pursue participatory and sustainable food,
agriculture, fisheries, forestry and rural development
6 private investments to foster human resources, sustainable
food, agriculture, fisheries and forestry systems, and rural
policies and practices in high and low potential areas, development, in high and low potential areas.
which are essential to adequate and reliable food supplies
at the household, national, regional and global levels, and We will implement, monitor, and follow-up this Plan of
combat pests, drought and desertification, considering the
multifunctional character of agriculture.
7 Action at all levels in cooperation with the international
community.

2 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006

Contents

Foreword
4 Despite setbacks, the race against hunger can be won

Undernourishment around the world
8 Counting the hungry: trends in the developing world and
countries in transition

Undernourishment in the regions
14 Asia and the Pacific
17 Latin America and the Caribbean
20 Near East and North Africa
23 Sub-Saharan Africa
26 Countries in transition

Towards the Summit commitments
28 The way ahead: strengthening efforts for eradicating hunger

31 Maps

32 Tables

39 Notes

The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 3

Foreword
Despite setbacks, the race against hunger can be won

n November 1996, the world be undernourished in 2015 versus

I turned its attention to Rome,
where heads of State and
Government of more than 180 nations
412 million if the WFS goal were to
be met.
The news cannot come as a
attending the World Food Summit surprise. Time and again, through
(WFS) pledged to eradicate one of the The State of Food Insecurity in the
worst scourges weighing on society’s World as well as other channels,
collective conscience: hunger. As an FAO has pointed out that insufficient
important step towards this noble and progress is being made in alleviating
long overdue objective, world leaders hunger. This publication has
committed themselves to what was highlighted the discrepancy between
considered an ambitious but what could (and should) be done,
attainable intermediate target: to and what is actually being done for
halve by 2015 the number of the millions of people suffering from
undernourished people in the world hunger. We have emphasized first
from the 1990 level. Ten years later, and foremost that reducing hunger
we are confronted with the sad reality is no longer a question of means in
that virtually no progress has been the hands of the global community.
made towards that objective. The world is richer today than it was
Compared with 1990–92, the number ten years ago. There is more food
of undernourished people in the available and still more could be
developing countries has declined by produced without excessive upward
a meagre 3 million – a number within pressure on prices. The knowledge
the bounds of statistical error. This is and resources to reduce hunger are
the situation facing representatives of there. What is lacking is sufficient
the Committee on World Food political will to mobilize those
Security, meeting in Rome this year to resources to the benefit of the
take stock of progress and setbacks hungry. Past issues of this report
experienced since the Summit and to have stressed the urgency of
propose further action. accelerating the pace in what has
Not all news is dismal, however. literally been termed as “the race
Despite disappointing performances against hunger”. They have
in reducing the number of hungry reiterated the need to move from
people, a smaller percentage of the rhetoric to concrete action.
populations of developing countries
is undernourished today compared Hunger reduction:
with 1990–92: 17 percent against challenges and priorities
20 percent. Furthermore, FAO’s
projections suggest that the When observing global trends in the
proportion of hungry people in number of undernourished people, it
developing countries in 2015 could is almost a natural reaction to dismiss
be about half of what it was in the period since the WFS as a “lost
1990–92: a drop from 20 to decade”. To do so, however, would be
10 percent. This means that the a serious mistake. It would compound
world is on a path towards meeting existing scepticism and would risk
the Millennium Development Goal detracting from positive action being
on hunger reduction. The same taken. It would also obscure the fact
projections, however, also indicate that much has been accomplished in
that the WFS target could be missed: securing a top place for hunger on the
some 582 million people could still development agenda.


1
Number of undernourished people in the developing world

Millions of undernourished
1 000
Path to the
900 Millennium
Trend Development
800 Goal target
700
600
500 Path to the
World Food
400 Summit target
300
200 World Food
Summit base
100 period (1990–92)
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: FAO

What also warrants clarification is number of hungry people will not fall
that the stagnation in the overall below that of 1990–92. By then,
number of undernourished people sub-Saharan Africa will be home to
reflects the net outcome of progress around 30 percent of the
in some countries combined with undernourished people in the
setbacks in others. Even within a developing world, compared with
single country, it is not uncommon 20 percent in 1990–92.
to find differences among regions. A number of countries suffering
Experiences documented so far setbacks in hunger reduction are
show that hunger reduction is experiencing conflict or other forms
possible, even in some of the of disaster. But, likewise, projections
poorest countries in the world. show a formidable task ahead for
There is much to be learnt from countries which may be free of
these successful cases. Countries conflict, but which rely on a poor
experiencing setbacks, on the other agricultural resource base and
hand, underscore the need for us to exhibit weak overall economic and
scale up proven models and institutional development in the face
strategies while, at the same time, of persistently high rates of
sharpening the focus on problem population growth.
areas where hunger is endemic and When assessing progress within
persistent. countries, it is generally in the rural
Among the developing regions areas that hunger is concentrated.
today, the greatest challenge is the At present, it is in these areas that
one facing sub-Saharan Africa. It is the majority of poor and food-
the region with the highest insecure people live. In turn, urban
prevalence of undernourishment, poverty tends to be fuelled by people
with one in three people deprived of migrating towards the cities in an
access to sufficient food. FAO’s attempt to escape the deprivations
projections suggest that the associated with rural livelihoods.
prevalence of hunger in this region Partly due to the rural decline, the
will decline by 2015 but that the world is urbanizing at a fast pace


and it will not be long before a rural economy, are often a
greater part of developing country prerequisite for accelerated hunger
populations is living in large cities. reduction. The agriculture sector
Therefore, urban food security and tends to be the engine of growth for
its related problems should also be entire rural economies, and
placed high on the agenda in the productivity-driven increases in
years to come. agricultural output can expand food
supplies and reduce food prices in
Twin track – a tried and effective local markets, raise farm incomes
approach and boost the overall local economy
by generating demand for locally
The concentration of hunger in rural produced goods and services.
areas suggests that no sustained By now, it is well understood
reduction in hunger is possible that hunger compromises the
without special emphasis on health and productivity of
agricultural and rural development. individuals and their efforts to
In countries and regions where escape poverty. It acts as a brake on
hunger remains widespread, the potential economic and social
agriculture often holds the key to development of whole societies. It is
achieving both economic progress no coincidence that more rapid
and sustained reductions in advances have been made in poverty
undernourishment. History has reduction as opposed to hunger
taught us that, in general, those alleviation. Indeed, escaping poverty
countries that have managed to seems to be much more difficult for
reduce hunger have not only hungry people, who are
experienced more rapid overall disadvantaged in their capacity
economic growth but have also to earn a livelihood. Accelerating
achieved greater gains in hunger reduction consequently
agricultural productivity than those requires direct measures to help
experiencing setbacks or stagnation. people who are both poor and ill-fed
It follows that investments in to escape the hunger-poverty trap.
agriculture, and more broadly in the Empirical evidence from an

2
Progress and setbacks in hunger reduction from 1990–92 to 2001–03

Transition countries

Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East and North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia and
the Pacific
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Change in number of undernourished people (millions)

Countries having achieved the WFS target
Countries having progressed towards the WFS target Setback countries Source: FAO


increasing number of countries hunger” with renewed vigour,
illustrates the powerful contribution seeking to honour the commitments
that direct and carefully targeted made ten years ago but, ideally,
measures can make to both hunger aiming well beyond the WFS target.
and poverty reduction. We must dispel any complacency
A twin-track approach, that may be engendered by the
emphasizing direct action against abundance of world food supplies, by
hunger along with a focus on the general increase in agricultural
agricultural and rural development, productivity, or by the expansion of
is effective in providing the most international trade possibilities.
vulnerable and food-insecure people The coexistence of food abundance
with new livelihood possibilities and or even overnutrition with food
hope for a better life. Efforts to deprivation, even in the same
promote the twin-track approach as countries or communities, has been
the principal strategic framework for a reality for decades and, unless
hunger reduction should therefore be conditions conducive to chronic
at the centre of poverty reduction hunger are eliminated, the two
initiatives at all levels. extremes will continue to coexist in
the future.
Reaching the WFS goal: Is the 2015 WFS target still
it can be done attainable? The answer should be a
resounding “Yes”, as long as
Conditions are currently ripe for concrete and concerted action,
hastening effective hunger reduction following the WFS Plan of Action, is
strategies and moving countries taken and stepped up immediately.
decisively towards the WFS target Already ten years ago, signatories to
and beyond – towards the total the Rome Declaration emphasized
eradication of world hunger. It is fair the urgency of the task “for which
to say that the international the primary responsibility rests with
community today pays more individual governments”, but for
attention to hunger as an intrinsic which cooperation with international
and pressing development issue. organizations and civil society –
Hunger has been raised to a more including both public and private
prominent position in national anti- sectors – is vital. Today, we are
poverty programmes and similar confident that the race against
initiatives, and there is more hunger can still be won, but only if
widespread and vocal the necessary resources, political
acknowledgement of the fact that the will and correct policies are
persistence of chronic hunger in the forthcoming. We fully agree with the
midst of plenty is an unacceptable principal conclusion of the UN
contradiction. On the part of Millennium Project’s Hunger Task
governments, civil society and other Force: It can be done.
organizations, there is a greater
awareness of the steps that need to
be taken and, more importantly, the
resolve to instigate and catalyse the
necessary action appears to have
been strengthened.
Today, ten years after the WFS we Jacques Diouf
can resume the “race against FAO Director-General


Counting the hungry: trends in the developing world
and countries in transition1

en years after the 1996 Rome

T World Food Summit (WFS), the
number of undernourished
people in the world remains
The World Food Summit and Millennium Development Goal targets

stubbornly high. In 2001–03, FAO The World Food Summit in 1996 established the target of halving the number of
estimates there were still 854 million undernourished people by no later than 2015. FAO uses the average of the period
undernourished people worldwide: 1990–92 as the baseline for monitoring progress towards this target.
820 million in the developing One of the two targets of the first Millennium Development Goal is to halve, between
countries, 25 million in the transition 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.
countries and 9 million in the The WFS target is the more ambitious of the two. Indeed, continued population growth
industrialized countries.2 means that the proportion of hungry people in the developing countries will need to be
Virtually no progress has been cut by much more than half if the target is to be met. If the MDG target is achieved in
made towards the WFS target of 2015 by the developing countries as a group, current population projections suggest that
halving the number of under- we will still be left with around 585 million undernourished, far more (173 million) than
nourished people by 2015. Since the WFS target of 412 million. On the other hand, reaching the WFS target will require a
1990–92, the baseline period for the reduction in the proportion of undernourished in the developing countries to 7 percent,
WFS target, the undernourished which is 10 percentage points lower than the current level of 17 percent.
population in the developing countries
has declined by only 3 million people:
from 823 million to 820 million. This
contrasts starkly with the reduction of resulted in a reduction in the was slower than over the previous
37 million achieved in the 1970s and proportion of undernourished people two decades, when the prevalence of
of 100 million in the 1980s. Moreover, in the developing countries by undernourishment declined by
the most recent trends are a cause 3 percentage points – from 9 percent (from 37 percent to
for concern – a decline of 20 percent in 1990–92 to 17 percent 28 percent) between 1969–71
26 million between 1990–92 and in 2001–03. This means that and 1979–81 and by a further
1995–97 was followed by an increase progress has continued towards the 8 percentage points (to 20 percent)
of 23 million up to 2001–03. first Millennium Development Goal between 1979–81 and 1990–92.3
Because of population growth, the (MDG 1) of halving the percentage of Success in meeting the WFS target
very small decrease in the number of undernourished people by 2015. will require a reversal of recent
hungry people has nevertheless However, progress over this period trends in the number of hungry

3 4
Undernourished 2001–03
Number of undernourished and the World Food Summit target
(millions)

Latin America/ Millions 1990–92* 1995–97 2001–03 WFS target
Caribbean 52
900
Asia/Pacific* Near East and
162 North Africa 38 800
700
600
World Sub-
Saharan 500
854 Africa
Developing world 206 400
820
300
India 212
200
Transition
countries 25 100
China Industrialized 0
Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition
150 countries 9 world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries
* Excluding China and India Source: FAO * For the transition countries: 1993–95 Source: FAO


5
people and a sharp acceleration in
Proportion of undernourished people and the Millennium
the rate of reduction of the proportion
Development Goal target
of undernourished. Indeed, even if
the MDG target were to be reached by
Percentage of population 1990–92* 1995–97 2001–03 MDG target
2015, the WFS target would still be 40
far from being met (see box). In order 35
to attain the WFS target in the 30
developing countries, the number of 25
undernourished people must be 20
reduced by 31 million per year 15
10
between 2001–03 and 2015.
5
0
Regional trends in Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition
world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries
undernourishment4 * For the transition countries: 1993–95 Source: FAO

Global stagnation in hunger
reduction masks significant 6
disparities among regions: Asia and
Ratio of undernourishment (number and prevalence) in 2001–03 to
the Pacific and Latin America and
1990–92
the Caribbean have seen an overall
reduction in both the number and
Ratio Ratio for number – WFS target Ratio for prevalence – MDG target
prevalence of undernourished 2.0
people since the WFS baseline
period. Nevertheless, in both 1.5
regions the average rate of 1.0
reduction has fallen short of what
would be required to halve the 0.5
undernourished population by 2015. 0.0
Furthermore, in the case of Asia and Developing Asia/ Latin America/ Near East and Sub-Saharan Transition
world Pacific Caribbean North Africa Africa countries*
the Pacific the number of * For the transition countries the baseline period is 1993–95 rather than 1990–92. Source: FAO
undernourished has reverted to an
increasing trend over the latter part
of the decade, although the
prevalence has continued to decline. the share of undernourished people since 1990–92, albeit from a
Underlying this reversal are larger in the region’s population saw a relatively low base. Following the
absolute numbers in China and India significant decline: from 35 percent significant reduction in the numbers
in 2001–03 relative to 1995–97. in 1990–92 to 32 percent in 2001–03, of undernourished achieved during
On the other hand, both in the Near after having reached 36 percent in the 1970s, the trend in subsequent
East and North Africa and in sub- 1995–97. This is an encouraging decades has been consistently
Saharan Africa the number of development, but the task facing the upwards. The decade since the WFS
undernourished people has risen region remains daunting: the baseline period constituted no
during the 11-year period following the number of undernourished people exception, although the rate of
WFS baseline. In sub-Saharan Africa, increased from 169 million to increase slowed in the later years.
this represents the continuation of a 206 million while reaching the WFS For the transition countries, the
trend that has been apparent over at target will require a reduction to number of undernourished people
least the last three decades. 85 million by 2015. has increased slightly, from 23
In sub-Saharan Africa, recent The Near East and North Africa million to 25 million.5 This rise is
progress in reducing the prevalence is the only region in which both attributed mainly to higher numbers
of undernourishment is noteworthy. the number and proportion of in the Commonwealth of
For the first time in several decades, undernourished has risen Independent States (CIS), where the



7 8
Changes in1990s and prevalence of
GDP in the number of undernourished Changes in1990s and prevalence of
GDP in the proportion of undernourished
in subregions from 1990–92 to 2001–03
undernourishment in 2000 in subregions from 1990–92 to 2001–03
undernourishment in 2000

China Southern Africa
Southeast Asia West Africa, excl. Nigeria
South America East Africa
India The Caribbean
The Caribbean Southeast Asia
West Africa, excl. Nigeria India
Nigeria South America
Mexico Nigeria
North Africa China
Southern Africa South Asia, excl. India
Central America North Africa
East Asia, excl. China Mexico
South Asia, excl. India Near East
East Africa Central America
Near East East Asia, excl. China
Central Africa Central Africa
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Millions Source: FAO Percentage points Source: FAO

majority of the region’s prevalence of undernourishment, and prevalence of hunger declined, but
undernourished people are found. in the cases of Asia and the Pacific the outcome in terms of reducing
and Latin America and the Caribbean the number of undernourished was
The WFS and MDG targets: progress has been quite significant. small, as a reduction in the first part
regional progress and setbacks of the decade (1990–92 to 1995–97)
Subregional trends in was subsequently reversed. At the
The degree of regional progress undernourishment6 same time, the number of
towards the WFS and MDG targets is undernourished increased in the
illustrated by Figure 6, which shows Regional trends in undernourishment rest of East Asia (excluding China)
the ratio of the number and the since the WFS baseline period and, particularly, in the rest of South
prevalence of undernourished, conceal significant differences at the Asia (excluding India).
respectively, in 2001–03 to that of subregional level, as illustrated by A significant contribution to
1990–92. A ratio of 0.5 or lower Figures 7 and 8. Within the sub- progress towards the WFS target in
implies that the respective target Saharan Africa region, the the Latin American and Caribbean
(WFS target for the number and subregions of Southern Africa, East region was made by South America,
MDG target for the prevalence) has Africa and West Africa all saw a while the number of hungry people
been achieved. A ratio of less than decline in the prevalence of increased in Central America and
1.0 indicates progress towards the undernourishment (although not Mexico. In the Near East and North
target while a ratio of more than 1.0 necessarily in the number of Africa, the absolute number of
indicates a setback. Only Asia and undernourished); by contrast, undernourished is the smallest of
the Pacific and Latin America and Central Africa experienced a all the developing country regions,
the Caribbean have made progress dramatic increase in both the but it increased both in North Africa
towards the WFS target, but neither number of hungry people and and in the Near East, with the latter
region is close to reaching it. The prevalence of undernourishment. also seeing an increase in the
remaining regions have all moved In Asia (where China and India are prevalence of hunger.
away from the target by varying treated as separate subregions in Globally, most subregions
degrees. view of the size of their populations) experienced a reduction in the
Prospects for achieving the MDG significant progress in reducing the prevalence of undernourishment.
target look more promising. All number of undernourished people However, any significant progress
developing country regions except was made in China and the populous towards reducing the global number
the Near East and North Africa have subregion of Southeast Asia. of undernourished was concentrated
made inroads towards reducing the In India, on the other hand, the in very few, but populous,


subregions: China, Southeast Asia food security situation in the reducing the absolute numbers:
and South America. Democratic Republic of the Congo. South Asia (excluding India), West
Apart from the Baltic States, only Africa and India.
The World Food Summit target: China, Southeast Asia, South Other subregions with lower levels
subregional progress and setbacks America and the Caribbean have of undernourishment that show a
moved decisively towards the WFS worrying increase in both prevalence
Progress and setbacks in hunger target. The first three, owing to their and numbers of undernourished are
reduction in the subregions are large populations, are also the East Asia (excluding China) – mainly
shown in Figure 9. For each subregions that have provided the due to a worsening situation in the
subregion, the ratio indicating the most substantive contribution Democratic People’s Republic of
distance from the WFS target is towards a reduction in the number Korea – the Near East and Central
plotted against the prevalence of of undernourished. It is also worth America.
undernourishment. A ratio between noting that in all these subregions, Clearly, progress towards the WFS
1.0 and 0.5 implies progress towards except the Caribbean, prevalence of target is concentrated in too few
the target whereas one of 0.5 or less undernourishment is lower than the subregions and generally in those
indicates the target has been average of the developing countries. with a prevalence of under-
achieved or surpassed. A ratio In addition to Central Africa, nourishment below the average for
greater than 1.0 indicates setback. also East Africa and Southern Africa the developing countries. Global
The two extremes – the Baltic call for priority attention in view progress is largely determined by a
States and Central Africa – illustrate of their high prevalence of under- few subregions with large
the wide disparity in progress in the nourishment. In both subregions, populations, while too many others
fight against hunger. The Baltic the number of hungry people has have seen virtually no progress or
States, with the lowest prevalence of continued to increase in spite of a have even experienced setbacks. To
undernourishment, have already reduction in the prevalence of accelerate the pace of global hunger
reduced the numbers by more than hunger. Substantial acceleration of reduction, it is essential to halt and
half; Central Africa, with the highest progress will be needed if the WFS reverse the rising trend in numbers
prevalence (56 percent of the target is to be met. The same applies where it occurs and to broaden
population), has been moving rapidly to other regions with somewhat success in hunger reduction to other
away from the WFS target as a lower levels of undernourishment subregions. This will evidently be
result of a dramatically worsening but with limited or no progress in critical in those subregions where the

9
Progress towards the WFS target: ratio of number of undernourished in 2001–03 to 1990–92* and
prevalence of undernourishment in 2001–03

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92*)
2.5
Departing from WFS target
Setback

Central Africa
2.0
East Asia, excl. China
North Africa Near East

.
1.5
Mexico Central America
Developing East Africa
CIS Oceania countries South Asia, excl. India
India Southern Africa
1.0
Eastern Europe Nigeria Southeast Asia West Africa, excl. Nigeria Moving towards WFS target
Caribbean
Progress

South America China
0.5
Baltic States Beyond WFS target

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent)
* For the transition countries: 1993–95 Source: FAO



prevalence of undernourishment is projected to drop by exactly half from target. Sub-Saharan Africa and the
most severe. the base rate (in 1990–92) of 20.3 Near East and North Africa, on the
percent to 10.1 percent in 2015. contrary, are expected to suffer an
Undernourishment in the lead-up If this happens, the MDG hunger increase, reaching higher numbers
to 2015 reduction target will be met. The in 2015 than in 1990–92.8 Latin
same cannot be said for the WFS America and the Caribbean and
Despite painfully slow global commitment, as the number of South Asia, while projected to reach
progress in hunger reduction over undernourished people in 2015 is the MDG target, are not on track for
the last decade, a positive sign expected to remain in excess of its the WFS target. The recent
comes from some of FAO’s latest target by 170 million hungry people. increasing trends in the number of
projections, which indicate an A reduced number of under- undernourished people in South
acceleration in the future (see table).7 nourished people is not envisaged Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the
The prevalence of hunger in the for all developing regions. Only East Near East and North Africa are likely
developing countries as a group is Asia is expected to reach the WFS to be reversed, but, of these three,
only South Asia is foreseen to reach
the MDG target.

Projected undernourishment in the developing world Food intake and population growth

Number of undernourished people Prevalence of undernourishment Projected progress in hunger
(millions) (percentage of population)
1990–92* 2015 WFS target 1990–92* 2015 MDG target
reduction mirrors significant
Developing countries 823 582 412 20.3 10.1 10.2 increases in average per capita food
Sub-Saharan Africa 170 179 85 35.7 21.1 17.9 consumption. Despite the overall
Near East and North Africa 24 36 12 7.6 7.0 3.8 gains in food consumption,
Latin America and the Caribbean 60 41 30 13.4 6.6 6.7 in several countries the increases
South Asia 291 203 146 25.9 12.1 13.0 will not be sufficient to allow for a
East Asia** 277 123 139 16.5 5.8 8.3
significant reduction in the number of
Notes
The base period for projections is 1999–2001 and not 2001–03. Some small countries have also been excluded
undernourished people. In particular,
from the projections. sub-Saharan Africa will still have an
* Data for 1990–92 may differ slightly from numbers reported elsewhere in the report as the projections are
based on undernourishment estimates that do not include the latest revisions.
average per capita daily calorie
** Includes Southeast Asia. Source: FAO
intake of 2 420 kilocalories (kcal)
(2 285 kcal when Nigeria is excluded)
in 2015 – close to that of South Asia
10 at the turn of the century. Low initial
levels of calorie intake, coupled with
Trends and projections in per capita food consumption high population growth, will
contribute to the slow reductions in
the number of undernourished
kcal/person/day 1969–71 1979–81 1989–91 1999–2001 2015
3 500
people.
Reducing hunger will be
3 000
particularly difficult for countries
2 500
characterized by historically very
2 000 high levels of hunger prevalence,
1 500 very low food consumption (under
1 000 2 200 kcal/person/day in 1999–2001),
500 low economic growth prospects, high
0 population growth rates and a
Developing Sub-Saharan Near East and Latin America/ South Asia East and limited agricultural resource base.
countries Africa North Africa Caribbean Southeast Asia
Source: FAO
Thirty-two countries fall into this
category – with undernourishment


11
Different methodologies are used
Trends and projections for growth in per capita GDP to estimate poverty and under-
nourishment and the figures are
not directly comparable. However,
Percentage 1980s 1990s 2001–15
7
a closer look at trends for both
indicators in the developing
6
countries reveals that poverty has
5
tended to decline more rapidly than
4 undernourishment. The World Bank
3 and FAO projections for these
2 indicators suggest that this trend
1 will continue. In fact, the differences
0 in calculations notwithstanding,
-1 there were 1.5 poor people for every
-2
hungry person in 1990–92; by 2015,
Developing
countries
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Near East and
North Africa
Latin America/
Caribbean
South Asia East Asia/
Pacific
the corresponding figures are
Source: World Bank. 2006. Global Economic Prospects 2006, Table 1.2. Washington, DC.
projected to be 1.2 to one.
These past trends and projections
suggest that poverty reduction does
12 not benefit proportionately those
rates ranging from 29 to 72 percent among the poor who are also
of the population and an average Poverty and undernourishment undernourished. Although the
prevalence of 42 percent. Their reasons for the slower rate of
current population of 580 million is hunger reduction are not clear, an
Percentage of population
projected to rise to 1.39 billion by 35
important factor may be that hunger
2050. Their current average food US$1 poverty itself acts as a barrier to escaping
30
consumption of 2 000 kcal/person/day Undernourishment* poverty (the hunger trap). Past
25
has actually fallen below that of editions of The State of Food
30 years ago. Despite their poor 20 Insecurity in the World as well as
historical record, however, several 15 the World Food Summit: five years
of these countries could achieve 10 later have emphasized that hunger
significant gains by prioritizing the 5 is not only a consequence but also a
development of local food 0 cause of poverty, and that it
production, as other countries have 1990 2002 2015 compromises the productive
done in the past. * For undernourishment, historical data potential of individuals, families and
refer to 1990–92 and 2000–02.
Source: US$1 poverty rates adapted
entire nations. In the 2004 edition of
Undernourishment from World Bank. 2006. Global Economic Prospects. this report, an extensive analysis of
2006. Washington, DC. For undernourishment,
and poverty see FAO. 2006. World agriculture: towards 2030/2050. the social and economic costs of
Interim report. Prospects for food, nutrition,
agriculture and major commodity groups, p. 19. Rome.
hunger was presented.
Growth in per capita incomes will An important policy implication of
contribute to hunger alleviation by this relationship would be that, in
reducing poverty and increasing per the absence of purposeful action,
capita food demand.9 Higher growth Figure 12 presents trends and hunger will compromise efforts to
rates in per capita GDP relative to projections for poverty and reduce poverty globally. Income
the 1990s are projected for all undernourishment rates, which, growth, while necessary, is not
regions and country groups, with the significantly, indicate that the always sufficient for eradicating
exception of East Asia, which poverty target of MDG 1 (halving hunger. Specific measures targeted
nevertheless remains the region with the proportion of the poor by 2015) directly at ensuring access to food
the highest growth rate (over 5.0 will be reached in the baseline are an indispensable component of
percent/year in per capita terms). scenario. effective hunger eradication efforts.


Asia and the Pacific

sia and the Pacific region Between 1990–92 and 2001–03, for population growth – only 9 of the

A accounts for 68 percent of
the developing world’s
population and 64 percent of its
the number of undernourished
people in the region declined from
570 million to 524 million and the
region’s 17 countries reduced the
number of undernourished people.
To reach the WFS target by 2015,
undernourished population. The prevalence of undernourishment progress must be accelerated.
prevalence of undernourishment dropped from 20 to 16 percent. Every The decline in the number of
– at 16 percent of the total country except the Democratic hungry people in Asia and the Pacific
population – is second only to People’s Republic of Korea10 saw a was driven mainly by China, which
Africa’s among the developing decline in prevalence, but it was not saw a reduction from 194 million to
country regions. sufficient in all cases to compensate 150 million. India has the largest
number of undernourished people in
13 the world, 212 million – only
marginally below the 215 million
Number of undernourished people: Asia and the Pacific estimated for 1990–92. Bangladesh
and Pakistan, both with high levels
of prevalence, account for 15 percent
Millions 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03
250
of the hungry people in the region,
with Pakistan showing an increase
200
in both prevalence and in absolute
number.
150 Individual country progress
towards the WFS target is shown in
100 Figure 15. No country in the region
has yet met the target. Two
50 countries, Myanmar and Viet Nam,
have reduced the number of
0 undernourished people by more
Southeast Asia China East Asia India South Asia
(excl. China) (excl. India) than 25 percent. In addition to these,
Source: FAO
the most significant progress in
relative terms has been achieved by
China, Thailand and Indonesia. The
14 most serious deterioration in food
security has been experienced by
Proportion of undernourished people: Asia and the Pacific the Democratic People’s Republic of
Korea, where the number of
undernourished people more than
Percentage of population 1990–92 1995–97 2001–03
35
doubled: from 3.6 million to
7.9 million.
30

25 Fighting hunger: determinants of
success and setbacks
20

15 In most countries of the region, the
majority of the population – and
10
most of the poor and food-insecure
5 – live in rural areas. A vibrant rural
0 economy is therefore a prerequisite
Southeast Asia China East Asia India South Asia
(excl. China) (excl. India) for reducing undernourishment.
Source: FAO
Productivity-driven (yield-
increasing) growth in agriculture can


15
Number of undernourished: country progress and setbacks in Asia and the Pacific

Ratio: current number to baseline (2001–03/1990–92)
2.5
Departing from WFS target

Setback
Dem. People’s
Rep. of Korea
2.0

1.5
Pakistan
Malaysia
Bangladesh
Nepal Cambodia
Republic of Korea India
1.0 Lao People’s Dem. Rep.
Philippines Moving towards WFS target
Indonesia Sri Lanka Mongolia
China
Viet Nam Thailand
Myanmar

0.5

Progress
Beyond WFS target

0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Prevalence of undernourishment 2001–03 (percent) Source: FAO

have a strong positive impact on the important as they, and rural and rural off-farm activities sustain
rural non-farm economy through labourers, are more likely to spend each other. Such growth can make a
boosting demand for locally the additional income on food and powerful contribution towards
produced non-agricultural goods basic non-farm products and reducing the numbers of
and by keeping food prices low. services deriving from rural areas. undernourished, especially when
Increasing the productivity of small- Agricultural growth thus generates initial income inequality is not too
scale farmers is especially a virtuous cycle in which agricultural marked and population growth is
moderate.
China and Viet Nam exemplify this
process. From 1990–92 to 2001–03,
Food insecurity in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea the number of hungry people in
China declined from 194 million to
150 million and the prevalence of
The Democratic People’s Republic are not available, making it difficult to undernourishment from 16 percent
of Korea has seen a sharp increase assess the extent of the problem. to 12 percent. This was achieved
in both the prevalence of under- However, available data on food through strong economic and
nourishment and the number production indicate that this variable, agricultural growth – real per capita
of hungry people over the period 1990–92 in per capita terms, declined at a rate of GDP increased at an average annual
to 2001–03: the prevalence doubled and 2.2 percent per year over this period. rate of 8 percent between 1990 and
the absolute number more than doubled In 2003, the vast majority of the country’s 2003, while per capita agricultural
(to almost 8 million people). 23 million people were dependent on GDP grew by 2.5 percent and per
The underlying cause appears to cereals received through the public capita food production by 5.4 percent
have been negative trends in economic distribution system. per year. At the same time, the
growth. Statistics on GDP growth annual population growth rate was
only 1 percent.



16
reduction can accelerate over the
Undernourishment, GDP per capita and agricultural GDP per worker
next decade.
(percentage change 1990–92 to 2001–03)
Between 1990–92 and 2001–03,
Viet Nam reduced the prevalence of
Number of undernourished
100
undernourishment from 31 to
17 percent and the number of
Developing world undernourished people from
80
Asia and the Pacific 21 million to 14 million. As in China,
60 accelerated hunger and poverty
reduction originated with market-
40 oriented economic and agricultural
reforms, which were implemented
20 in the 1980s. An economic reform
programme gave farmers control
0 over land, allowed them to increase
sales to the market and reduced
-20 agricultural taxation. Also as in the
case of China, the drivers were
strong per capita growth in GDP
(5.7 percent/year between 1990
and 2003) and agricultural GDP
(2.5 percent/year) as well as
GDP per capita Agricultural GDP per worker rapid expansion in food production.
Source: FAO and World Bank
A poverty eradication programme
targeting investments in rural
infrastructure also contributed to
boosting agricultural production and
In fact, the rapid reduction of poor people in rural China fell from hunger reduction. Viet Nam remains
hunger and poverty in China started about 490 million in 1979 to about a low-income country, and keeping
much earlier, originating with 90 million in 2002 in terms of the up the momentum in reducing
two major agricultural reforms World Bank’s US$1-a-day poverty hunger presents a formidable
in 1978, when families were line.13 The number of under- challenge.
permitted to lease land from the nourished people was reduced from Cambodia and India saw
collectives and state procurement 387 million in 1969–71 to the current virtually no change in the total
prices for foodgrains, oilcrops and figure of 150 million. number of undernourished people
hogs were raised.11 Agricultural The rate of hunger reduction in despite strong growth in per capita
output and incomes rose China slowed down during the income of 4 percent per year
dramatically in response, with second half of the 1990s.14 This, at from 1993 to 2003 in Cambodia
rural per capita income increasing least in part, is attributable to the and 3.9 percent per year from 1990
by 90 percent between 1980 and weak economic performance of to 2003 in India. However, the good
1985. From 1985 onwards, rural the relatively isolated and overall economic performance
non-farm enterprises also began to disadvantaged rural areas where the was spread unevenly among sectors
expand rapidly. By 2000 they had majority of the remaining and was not underpinned by strong
absorbed about a quarter of the undernourished people are located. agricultural growth; per capita
rural labour force and were The bulk of agricultural output agricultural GDP increased at an
contributing about 30 percent to comes from about 200 million very annual rate of only 0.7 percent
national GDP, while farm small (0.65 ha or less) farms.15 between 1993 and 2003 in Cambodia
households were deriving almost Recent steps by the Government of and by 0.9 percent from 1990 to 2003
50 percent of their incomes from China to revitalize rural areas holds in India.16
non-farm sources.12 The number of out the promise that hunger


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