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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar 21, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                                         Mar 18                    Change                US Market                                                       Mar 18                      Change
SET Index                                                                1003.29                      +0.94               Dow Jones                                                    11,858.52                         +83.93
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                                                                   Nasdaq                                                        2,643.67                          +5.48
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                                                                                              S&P 500                                                       1,279.20                          +5.48
Thai Bond Market                                                          Mar 18                    Change                US 10 yr T-note (%)                                               3.29                          +3 bp
Total Return Index                                                        202.01                      +0.14               US 2yr T-note (%)                                                 0.60                          +1 bp
                                                                                                                          NYMEX crude ($/b)                                               101.07                           -0.35
Yield curve             1m        3m        6m         1yr          2yr         3yr     5yr         7yr       10yr     12yr        14yr       18yr
Mar 18 (%)             2.20      2.40      2.61       2.72         3.00        3.20    3.37        3.65       3.78     3.98        4.06       4.15
Chng 1D (bp)              -2       -1          -1        -1          +0          -1      +0          +0         -1       +0          -1         -1
Chng 5D (bp)             +2        +2        +0          -2          -3          -6       -3         -2         -7        -6         -4         -6
Interbank Rates         Mar 21       Mar 17              BIBOR           1w         1m           2m         3m       6m          9m         1yr
Overnight (%)             2.50      2.35-2.46
Repurchase Rates         1-day          7-day            14-day             1m           SIBOR           1m             3m               6m
Mar 18 (%)              2.50000        2.50000               -               -           Mar 18       0.26028        0.30967           0.46339
THBFIX (Ref.)       1m         2m        3m          6m          9m         1yr          LIBOR           1m             3m               6m
Mar 18            1.90251    2.08996 2.14676 2.35270 2.51168             2.67686         Mar 18       0.25350        0.30900           0.46000
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                 1yr              2yr              3yr            4yr              5yr            7yr              10yr
Mar 21       Bid/Ask                2.51/2.56        2.84/2.89        3.12/3.18     3.38/3.42         3.57/3.61      3.76/3.80        3.99/4.07
KBank Counter Rates                               Buying                             Selling                   Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                       Sight Bill                 T/T                      T/T                             Export/Import
USD                                   30.05                  30.15                    30.40                                1.85/8.10
EUR                                  42.4813                42.6225                  43.1600                               0.87/6.68
GBP                                  48.6325                48.7938                  49.3825                               2.71/7.58
JPY                                  0.3698                 0.3710                    0.3780                               2.37/8.76
KBank Technical Analysis                  Mar 21            Mar 18          Support      Resistance          Trend               Strategy
THB (Onshore)                              30.28             30.30           30.23           30.33          Sideway     Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                        81.57             78.83           80.30           82.60          Sideway      Buy USD near support
EUR/USD                                   1.4065            1.4022           1.4120         1.4220          Sideway      Buy EUR near support
Note: due to technical errors, we are not able to update some data on the table this morning.

                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                     •   Equities among the economies in the Arab gulf also rose as Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah
                         announced $67bn increase in public spending in addition to February’s $36bn package
                     •   Thailand’s custom-cleared exports and imports in February continued to show strength in
                         economic recovery with key manufacturing products seeing an export growth rate of 29.9%yoy
                     •   China raised the its banking sector’s reserve requirement ratio for the third time this year by
                         another 50bp to 20%, effective March 25th


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •    USD/JPY closed lower to 80.77 after a strong rebound above 81.00 as G7 central banks begun
                         FX intervention. Near-term yen outlook is still one of an appreciating trend as repatriation is
                         unavoidable but on the longer-run, the market continues to talk about a weaker yen
                    •    USD/THB closed lower to 30.36, in line with regional currencies which strengthened against the
                         dollar on the back of improvement in the global market’s investment sentiment


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                     •   Oil climbed in New York after the U.S., U.K. and France launched cruise missiles and airstrikes
                         at targets in Libya and as continuing unrest in the region renewed concerns the turmoil may
                         spread and disrupt supplies
                   Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 21, 2011

                                                                                                                                 There is likely to be more interest rate hikes this year for
                   Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                      China but monetary tightening for maintenance of
    Global stock markets closed higher on Friday (markets                                                                        economic stability is viewed as a positive factor for the
    calmed down after Colonel Qaddafi called for a ceasefire                                                                     medium run. At the same time, China is also allowing its
    on Friday) but still ended the week lower. Key concerns                                                                      currency to strengthen slowly, as cheaper import prices
    continue to be the economic impact of Japan’s disasters                                                                      could help quell imported inflation locally. This morning,
    and the unrests in the Arab states, especially after the                                                                     China sets the USD/CNY reference rate at a record low of
    attacks on Libya by the international coalition under the                                                                    6.5632 once again (Fri at 6.5668)
    name of the UN which includes the U.S., U.K., and France
    as key mission leaders.
       370                                                                                                 70                              US Treasuries and Thai rates
       350                                                                                                 65                    Treasury futures contracts fell for a third day as Japan
       330                                                                                                                       made progress in cooling nuclear reactors at the
                                                                                                           60
                                                                                                                                 Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant, easing concern a meltdown
       310
                                                                                                           55                    would endanger global economic growth.
       290

       270                                                                                                 50                    Strategists including Jim Caron at Morgan Stanley & Co.
                                                                                                                                 said the Japan earthquake and tsunami and Middle-East
       250                                                                                                 45
         Mar-10                         Jul-10                      Nov-10                       Mar-11
                                                                                                                                 unrest won’t derail the world economy. “Market risks are
                                                                                                                                 skewed for rates to rise,” analysts at New York-based
               MSCI All country index (LHS)          Bloomberg GCC200 index for Africa&Middle East (RHS)
                                                                                                                                 Morgan Stanley led by Caron said in a March 18 report.
                                                                                                                                 Bonds rose last week as the events spurred demand for
    Equities among the economies in the Arab gulf also rose                                                                      the safest securities.
    as Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah announced further
    increase in public spending (including some $67 billion on                                                                   The yield on 10-year Treasury futures contracts for June
    housing construction), after he had announced a $36billion                                                                   delivery rose two basis points to 3.55 percent at 9 a.m. in
    package in February.                                                                                                         Singapore, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
                                                                                                                                 (Source: Bloomberg)
    Thailand’s custom-cleared exports and imports in February
    continued to show strength in economic recovery with key                                                                      S&P Index                                                                                              (% )
    manufacturing products seeing an export growth rate of                                                                        1400                                                                                                    4.0
    29.9% yoy. The trade balance also reverted to a surplus, at                                                                   1300
    $1,767.6mn, compared to that of January’s deficit of                                                                                                                                                                                  3.5

    $856.8mn. Unwrought gold exports accounted for much of                                                                        1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3.0
    the trade surplus, recording at $1,240mn ($58mn in Jan).                                                                      1100
        % yoy                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2.5
                                                                                                                                  1000
        80                                                                                                  4000
        60                                                                                                  3000                    900                                                                                                   2.0
        40                                                                                                  2000                      Mar-10                Jun-10                Sep-10                Dec-10                Mar-11

        20                                                                                                  1000                                                 S&P Index                    10yr Treasury yield
          0                                                                                                 0
       -20                                                                                                  -1000
       -40                                                                                                  -2000
                                                                                                                                 Thai interest rate: Bond yields were little changed but
       -60                                                                                                  -3000                demand was observed in the mid-curve bonds from foreign
              Jan-09      May-09        Sep-09        Jan-10        May-10        Sep-10         Jan-11
                                                                                                                                 investors. The market is waiting for the MPC minutes due
                 Trade balance ($ mn, right axis)                Export, % yoy                Import, % yoy                      this Wednesday for cues of monetary policy going forward.
                                                                                                                                 Meanwhile, the PDMO would also be announcing its bond
                                                                                                                                 supply for the next quarter towards the end of the month.
    China raised the its banking sector’s reserve requirement
    ratio for the third time this year by another 50bp to 20%                                                                      %                                    Interest rate swaps
    (large banks and 18% for small banks), effective March                                                                           4.0
    25th. This is in line with the market’s expectation and the                                                                      3.5
    recent comments by the PBoC Governor that the
                                                                                                                                     3.0
    authorities had to do more to keep inflationary pressure low
    and                   expectations                 anchored.                                                                     2.5

        %                                                                                                                            2.0
       20                                                                                                                            1.5
       19                                                                                                                            1.0
       18                                                                                                                              1-Nov               1-Dec                1-Jan               1-Feb             1-Mar
       17
       16                                                                                                                                                       1Y               2Y                3Y                5Y
       15
       14
       13
       12
        Jan-09                Jul-09                Jan-10              Jul-10               Jan-11
                                        major banks                          small banks




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 21, 2011

                                              FX Wrap                                                                                                                   Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                  Fri 18-Mar-11              Thu 17-Mar-11                  % Change
       1.44
       1.42                                                                                                                              USD/THB                      30.36                       30.48                        -0.39
       1.40                                                                                                                              USD/JPY                      80.77                       80.70                       +0.09
       1.38                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                       1.419                       1.400                       +1.35
       1.36
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                      1.6227                      1.6073                       +0.96
       1.34
       1.32                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                     0.9006                      0.9163                        -1.71
       1.30                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                      1.2734                      1.2819                        -0.66
       1.28                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                       29.59                       29.54                       +0.17
           1-Dec       16-Dec       31-Dec       15-Jan      30-Jan      14-Feb        1-Mar      16-Mar
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,125.8                    1,133.55                       -0.68
                                                           EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                      43.62                       43.75                        -0.30
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                      8,800                       8,772                       +0.32
    EUR/USD climbed higher to 1.419 on global market’s
    optimism but we would have to watch for the EU summit                                                                               USD/MYR                       3.051                       3.065                        -0.46
    towards the end of this week for further updates on how the                                                                         USD/CNY                       6.569                       6.572                        -0.05
    EU nations would deal with debt problems.                                                                                      Source: Reuters
                                                                                                                                                                     .FX Consensus Forecast
    USD/JPY closed lower to 80.77 after a strong rebound
    above 81.00 as G7 central banks begun FX intervention on                                                                                                                   Spot                  Jun 2011                Dec 2011
    Friday morning. The near-term outlook on the yen is still
                                                                                                                                             USD/THB                          30.29                    30.00                   29.00
    one of an appreciating trend as repatriation is unavoidable
    as Japan rebuilds and insurance companies sell assets to                                                                                 USD/JPY                          80.98                    85.00                   88.00
    make payments. On the longer-run, however, the market                                                                                    EUR/USD                           1.42                     1.38                    1.35
    continues to talk about a weaker yen due to Japan’s
                                                                                                                                             GBP/USD                           1.62                     1.63                    1.63
    mounting public debt and risks of economic slowdown if
    Japan cannot escape from its deflationary trap.                                                                                          USD/CNY                           6.57                     6.45                    6.30

       85.00                                                                                                                                 USD/SGD                           1.27                     1.26                    1.23
       84.00                                                                                                                                 USD/IDR                          8,765                    8,825                   8,800
       83.00                                                                                                                                USD/MYR                            3.04                     3.00                    2.97
       82.00                                                                                                                                 USD/PHP                          43.63                    43.30                   42.00
       81.00
                                                                                                                                            USD/KRW                           1,128                    1,099                   1,070
       80.00
                                                                                                                                            USD/TWD                           29.58                    29.10                   28.50
       79.00
                                                                                                                                             AUD/USD                           1.00                     1.01                    0.98
       78.00
            1-Dec                     1-Jan                    1-Feb                  1-Mar                                                  NZD/USD                           0.73                     0.74                    0.75
                                                                                                                                   Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
                                                            USD/JPY
                                                                                                                                                                       Currency Pair Targets
    USD/THB closed lower to 30.36, in line with regional                                                                                                                       Spot              Jun 2011                    Dec 2011
    currencies which strengthened against the dollar on the
    back of improvement in the global market’s investment                                                                                    USD/THB                          30.29                    30.00                   29.00
    sentiment. USD/THB saw little changes on Friday for the                                                                                  JPYTHB                           37.40                    35.29                   32.95
    lack of major market-moving factors.                                                                                                     EURTHB                           42.90                    41.40                   39.15
         31.10                                                                                                                               GBP/THB                          49.09                    48.90                   47.27
         30.90
                                                                                                                                             CNY/THB                           4.61                     4.65                    4.60
         30.70
         30.50                                                                                                                               AUD/THB                          30.16                    30.30                   28.42
         30.30                                                                                                                               CHF/THB                          22.14                    22.20                   21.75
         30.10
                                                                                                                                             SGD/THB                          23.79                    23.81                   23.58
         29.90
                                                                                                                                   Source: KBank, Bloomberg
         29.70
         29.50                                                                                                                   KBank NEER Index
              1-Oct           1-Nov           1-Dec           1-Jan           1-Feb           1-Mar
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         98.28
                                                           USD/THB                                                               YTD                                                                           + 5.53%
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 2.16%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1mth ago                                                                   - 0.10%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 week ago                                                                 - 0.08%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                  + 0.01%
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                         + 10.40%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 21, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                         Auction results of BoT bonds                                                                             Mar 18
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30           -20          -10             0               +10         +20             +30          +40                                                                                                                              Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tenor              Amt.                 Accepted
         LB116A               2.63      2.58          2.54         2.50          2.45              2.41        2.37            2.32         2.03                     Symbol                                                                                 Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                        (yrs)            (Bt mn)               Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ratio
          LB11NA              3.51      3.29          3.07         2.86          2.64              2.43        2.21            1.99         1.53
                                                                                                                                                                     BOT133B                           2.00              15,000             2.60875/2.65875   2.640050       0.70
           LB123A             4.08      3.75          3.42         3.09          2.76              2.43        2.11            1.78         1.20
                                                                                                                                                                     CB11405A                          0.04              85,000                     2.310/2.350         2.330060     1.27
          LB12NA              5.14      4.58          4.02         3.46          2.90              2.34        1.78            1.22         0.41
                                                                                                                                                                     Source: ThaiBMA
           LB133A             5.86      5.16          4.45         3.75          3.04              2.34        1.63            0.93        -0.03
           LB137A             6.40      5.58          4.77         3.96          3.15              2.34        1.53            0.72        -0.34                     Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
          LB13OA              6.82      5.91          5.01         4.10          3.20              2.29        1.39            0.48        -0.68                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                     Symbol                                                                    Auction Date            Maturity Date Remark
           LB143A             7.30      6.29          5.28         4.27          3.26              2.25        1.24            0.23        -1.03                                                        (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB145A             7.62      6.53          5.43         4.34          3.24              2.14        1.05            -0.05 -1.39                           LB17OA                            7.09              10,000                     30-Mar-11           10-Oct-17      -
           LB145B             7.61      6.52          5.42         4.33          3.23              2.14        1.04            -0.05 -1.40                           Source: ThaiBMA
          LB14DA              8.45      7.17          5.89         4.61          3.32              2.04        0.76            -0.52 -2.05                           Auction Calendar of BOT Bonds
           LB155A             9.22      7.75          6.28         4.81          3.34              1.87        0.40            -1.07 -2.78                                                             Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                     Symbol                                                                    Auction Date            Maturity Date Remark
           LB157A             9.10      7.67          6.24         4.81          3.38              1.95        0.52            -0.91 -2.59                                                              (yrs)            (Bt mn)
          LB15DA              10.04 8.37              6.69         5.01          3.34              1.66       -0.01 -1.69 -3.61                                      CB11421C                          0.08              25,000                     22-Mar-11           21-Apr-11      -
           LB167A             10.74 8.93              7.13         5.33          3.52              1.72       -0.08 -1.88 -3.93                                      CB11623B                          0.25              20,000                     22-Mar-11           23-Jun-11      -
          LB16NA              11.25 9.32              7.38         5.45          3.52              1.58       -0.35 -2.28 -4.46                                                                                                                                                        -
                                                                                                                                                                     CB11922A                          0.50              12,000                     22-Mar-11           22-Sep-11
           LB171A             11.35 9.41              7.47         5.53          3.60              1.66       -0.28 -2.22 -4.40
                                                                                                                                                                     Source: ThaiBMA
           LB175A             11.87 9.80              7.74         5.67          3.61              1.54       -0.52 -2.59 -4.90
           LB183A             13.19 10.81 8.44                     6.07          3.69              1.32       -1.05 -3.42 -6.04
           LB183B             12.93 10.62 8.31                     6.00          3.70              1.39       -0.92 -3.22 -5.78
           LB191A             13.69 11.20 8.72                     6.23          3.74              1.26       -1.23 -3.71 -6.45
           LB196A             14.59 11.86 9.14                     6.41          3.69              0.97       -1.76 -4.48 -7.45
           LB198A             14.42 11.75 9.09                     6.43          3.76              1.10       -1.56 -4.22 -7.13
          LB19DA              14.69 11.96 9.24                     6.51          3.79              1.06       -1.66 -4.38 -7.35
           LB213A             16.10 13.03 9.96                     6.90          3.83              0.77       -2.29 -5.36 -8.67
           LB214A             15.67 12.72 9.76                     6.81          3.86              0.91       -2.04 -4.98 -8.18
          LB22NA              17.72 14.26 10.81 7.36                             3.91              0.45       -2.99 -6.44 -10.14
           LB233A             18.19 14.65 11.11 7.57                             4.03              0.49       -3.04 -6.57 -10.36
           LB236A             19.29 15.48 11.66 7.85                             4.04              0.23       -3.58 -7.38 -11.44
           LB244A             19.41 15.58 11.74 7.91                             4.08              0.24       -3.58 -7.41 -11.48
          LB24DA              20.03 16.04 12.06 8.08                             4.10              0.13       -3.85 -7.82 -12.04
           LB267A             20.55 16.45 12.36 8.26                             4.17              0.08       -4.01 -8.10 -12.44
           LB283A             22.24 17.72 13.21 8.70                             4.19          -0.32 -4.82 -9.32 -14.07
           LB296A             23.52 18.69 13.85 9.03                             4.20          -0.62 -5.44 -10.26 -15.32
           LB383A             28.35 22.32 16.30 10.29 4.29                                     -1.72 -7.71 -13.71 -19.94
           LB396A             29.12 22.91 16.71 10.51 4.32                                     -1.86 -8.04 -14.21 -20.63
          Average             13.13 10.74 8.35                     5.97          3.58              1.19       -1.19 -3.57 -6.20
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                   40.00

                                   30.00

                                   20.00

                                   10.00

                                     0.00

                                  -10.00

                                  -20.00

                                  -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                            3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Now
                                  -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     LB296A
                                             LB113A

                                                      LB116A
                                                               LB11NA

                                                                        LB123A

                                                                                 LB133A
                                                                                          LB137A

                                                                                                    LB145B

                                                                                                             LB14DA
                                                                                                                      LB155A

                                                                                                                               LB15DA

                                                                                                                                        LB167A
                                                                                                                                                 LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                          LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                   LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                            LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                     LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                              LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                      The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 21, 2011

                                                                                                                                 Hedge funds slashed bullish oil bets from an all-time high
                      Economic News Update                                                                                       on concern that demand in Japan will tumble after the
                                                                                                                                 country’s biggest earthquake. About 29 percent of the
    Oil Rises After Military Strikes Against                                                                                     country’s refining capacity has been shut, Petroleum
    Libya, Mideast Unrest: Oil climbed in New York                                                                               Association of Japan data show.
    after the U.S., U.K. and France launched cruise missiles
    and airstrikes at targets in Libya and as continuing unrest                                                                  The funds and other large speculators decreased net-long
    in the region renewed concerns the turmoil may spread                                                                        positions, or wagers on rising prices, by 13 percent in the
    and disrupt supplies.                                                                                                        seven days ended March 15, the most since the week
                                                                                                                                 ended Jan. 25, according to the Commodity Futures
    Futures advanced as much as 2.3 percent after Libyan                                                                         Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders
    leader Muammar Qaddafi vowed to repel allied forces                                                                          report. (Source: Bloomberg)
    pounding military installations. Ninety percent of Bahrain
    Petroleum Co.’s employees went on strike last week in
    response to a police crackdown on anti-government
    demonstrations, while Yemen declared a state of
    emergency on March 18.

    Crude oil for April delivery gained as much as $2.28 to
    $103.35 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York
    Mercantile Exchange, and was at $103.26 at 12:58 p.m.
    Sydney time. The contract, which expires tomorrow,
    dropped 35 cents to $101.07 on March 18. The more-
    actively traded May contract rose as much as $2.42 to
    $104.27.

    Brent crude oil for May settlement increased $2.01, or 1.8
    percent, to $115.94 a barrel on the London-based ICE
    Futures Europe exchange. The contract fell 97 cents, or
    0.8 percent, to end the session at $113.93 a barrel on
    March 18.

     A no-fly zone is now in place over Libya, Admiral Mike
    Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said
    yesterday. The coalition ordered Qaddafi to withdraw his
    forces from major cities after weeks of fighting with rebels
    that has left hundreds dead in the bloodiest of popular
    uprisings to have swept the Middle East this year.

    Bahrain’s government declared a three-month state of
    emergency on March 15 after troops from Saudi Arabia
    and other Arab Gulf states arrived to support the
    administration in quelling more than a month of protests led
    by the Shiite Muslim majority, which is calling for
    democracy and civil rights in the Sunni-ruled kingdom.

    Libyan output has fallen to less than 400,000 barrels a day,
    about a quarter of the production before the crisis, and may
    stop, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Co.,
    said on March 19. The country produced 1.59 million
    barrels a day in January, according to estimates compiled
    by Bloomberg.

    Libya’s oil exports may be halted for “many months”
    because of damage to facilities and sanctions following a
    rebellion against Qaddafi, the International Energy Agency
    said in its monthly Oil Market Report on March 15.

    There is no need to call a special meeting of the
    Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to address
    the situation in Libya, said Abdullah Al-Attiyah, Qatar’s                                                                                               Market Strategists:
    deputy prime minister and former oil minister. OPEC                                                                                                     Nalin Chutchotitham
    supplies about 40 percent of the world’s crude.
                                                                                                                                                            Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            Tel: 02-470-3235




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 21, 2011



                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       03/17/2011 19:30                      US             Initial Jobless Claims                                               Mar-12                  388K                   385K                   397K                    401K
       03/17/2011 19:30                      US             Continuing Claims                                                    Mar-05                 3750K                  3706K                  3771K                    3786K
       03/17/2011 20:15                      US             Industrial Production                                                  FEB                  0.60%                  -0.10%                -0.10%                    0.30%
       03/17/2011 20:15                      US             Capacity Utilization                                                   FEB                  76.50%                76.30%                 76.10%                   76.40%
       03/17/2011 20:45                      US             Bloomberg Economic Expectations                                       MAR                      --                     -8                     4                       --
       03/17/2011 21:00                      US             Leading Indicators                                                     FEB                  0.90%                  0.80%                  0.10%                      --

       03/18/2011 07:01                      UK             Nationwide Consumer Confidence                                         FEB                     47                     38                    47                       48
       03/18/2011 07:30                      AU             RBA Foreign Exchange Transactn                                         FEB                     --                   414M                  326M                       --
       03/18/2011 09:00                      CH             China February Property Prices
       03/18/2011 12:00                      JN             Coincident Index CI                                                   JAN F                    --                   105.9                 106.2                      --
       03/18/2011 12:00                      JN             Leading Index CI                                                      JAN F                    --                   101.5                 101.9                      --
       03/18/2011 13:00                      TH             Customs Exports (YoY)                                                  FEB                 17.00%                 31.00%                 22.30%                      --
       03/18/2011 13:00                      TH             Customs Imports (YoY)                                                  FEB                 21.20%                 22.50%                 33.30%                      --
       03/18/2011 13:00                      TH             Customs Trade Balance                                                  FEB                 -$189M                 $1768M                 -$857M                      --
       03/18/2011 14:00                      GE             Producer Prices (MoM)                                                  FEB                  0.70%                  0.70%                  1.20%                      --
       03/18/2011 14:00                      GE             Producer Prices (YoY)                                                  FEB                  6.30%                  6.40%                  5.70%                      --
       03/18/2011 14:30                      TH             Forward Contracts                                                    Mar-11                    --                  $18.2B                $18.4B                      --
       03/18/2011 14:30                      TH             Foreign Reserves                                                     Mar-11                    --                 $181.9B               $180.8B                      --
       03/18/2011 14:45                      FR             Wages (QoQ)                                                           4Q F                     --                  0.30%                  0.20%                      --
       03/18/2011 16:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Current Account nsa                                          JAN                     --                  -19.6B                 -0.1B                     1.0B
       03/18/2011 16:00                      EC             ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA                                       JAN                     --                   -0.7B                 -13.3B                  -12.5B
       03/18/2011 16:00                       IT            Trade Balance (Total) (Euros)                                          JAN                     --                 -6554M                 -2723M                   -2775M
       03/18/2011 16:00                       IT            Trade Balance Eu (Euros)                                               JAN                     --                  -786M                 -1394M                   -1446M
       03/18/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa                                             JAN                   -2.5B                  -3.3B                 -2.3B                    -1.1B
       03/18/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Trade Balance                                                JAN                   -9.0B                 -14.8B                 -0.5B                      --
       03/18/2011 17:00                       IT            Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM)                                           JAN                  -1.00%                 -0.30%                 5.40%                    5.40%
       03/18/2011 17:00                       IT            Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY)                                         JAN                 16.00%                 17.50%                 17.40%                      --
       03/18/2011 17:00                       IT            Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)                                            JAN                  0.50%                  1.00%                 -0.30%                   -0.20%
       03/18/2011 17:00                       IT            Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)                                          JAN                     --                  8.00%                  8.40%                    8.50%
       03/18/2011 18:00                      CA             Consumer Price Index                                                   FEB                     --                   118.1                 117.8                      --
       03/18/2011 18:00                      CA             Consumer Price Index MoM                                               FEB                  0.40%                  0.30%                  0.30%                      --
       03/18/2011 18:00                      CA             Consumer Price Index YoY                                               FEB                  2.30%                  2.20%                  2.30%                      --
       03/18/2011 18:00                      CA             Bank Canada CPI Core MoM                                               FEB                  0.40%                  0.20%                  0.00%                      --
       03/18/2011 18:00                      CA             Bank Canada CPI Core YoY                                               FEB                  1.10%                  0.90%                  1.40%                      --
           03/18/2011                        PH             Balance of Payments                                                    FEB                     --                 -$133M                 $1606M                      --
       03/21/2011 07:01                      UK             Rightmove House Prices (MoM)                                          MAR                      --                  0.80%                  3.10%                      --
       03/21/2011 07:01                      UK             Rightmove House Prices (YoY)                                          MAR                      --                  0.90%                  0.30%                      --
       03/21/2011 15:00                      TA             Export Orders (YoY)                                                    FEB                 12.90%                     --                 13.47%                      --
       03/21/2011 19:30                      US             Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index                                         FEB                     --                     --                   -0.16                     --
       03/21/2011 21:00                      US             Existing Home Sales                                                    FEB                  5.11M                     --                  5.36M                      --
       03/21/2011 21:00                      US             Existing Home Sales MoM                                                FEB                  -4.70%                    --                  2.70%                      --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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K bank daily mar 21

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Mar 21, 2011 Thai Stock Market Mar 18 Change US Market Mar 18 Change SET Index 1003.29 +0.94 Dow Jones 11,858.52 +83.93 Market Turnover (Bt mn) Nasdaq 2,643.67 +5.48 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) S&P 500 1,279.20 +5.48 Thai Bond Market Mar 18 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.29 +3 bp Total Return Index 202.01 +0.14 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.60 +1 bp NYMEX crude ($/b) 101.07 -0.35 Yield curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Mar 18 (%) 2.20 2.40 2.61 2.72 3.00 3.20 3.37 3.65 3.78 3.98 4.06 4.15 Chng 1D (bp) -2 -1 -1 -1 +0 -1 +0 +0 -1 +0 -1 -1 Chng 5D (bp) +2 +2 +0 -2 -3 -6 -3 -2 -7 -6 -4 -6 Interbank Rates Mar 21 Mar 17 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.50 2.35-2.46 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Mar 18 (%) 2.50000 2.50000 - - Mar 18 0.26028 0.30967 0.46339 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Mar 18 1.90251 2.08996 2.14676 2.35270 2.51168 2.67686 Mar 18 0.25350 0.30900 0.46000 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Mar 21 Bid/Ask 2.51/2.56 2.84/2.89 3.12/3.18 3.38/3.42 3.57/3.61 3.76/3.80 3.99/4.07 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.05 30.15 30.40 1.85/8.10 EUR 42.4813 42.6225 43.1600 0.87/6.68 GBP 48.6325 48.7938 49.3825 2.71/7.58 JPY 0.3698 0.3710 0.3780 2.37/8.76 KBank Technical Analysis Mar 21 Mar 18 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.28 30.30 30.23 30.33 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 81.57 78.83 80.30 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support EUR/USD 1.4065 1.4022 1.4120 1.4220 Sideway Buy EUR near support Note: due to technical errors, we are not able to update some data on the table this morning. Macro and Market Outlook • Equities among the economies in the Arab gulf also rose as Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah announced $67bn increase in public spending in addition to February’s $36bn package • Thailand’s custom-cleared exports and imports in February continued to show strength in economic recovery with key manufacturing products seeing an export growth rate of 29.9%yoy • China raised the its banking sector’s reserve requirement ratio for the third time this year by another 50bp to 20%, effective March 25th FX Market Wrap • USD/JPY closed lower to 80.77 after a strong rebound above 81.00 as G7 central banks begun FX intervention. Near-term yen outlook is still one of an appreciating trend as repatriation is unavoidable but on the longer-run, the market continues to talk about a weaker yen • USD/THB closed lower to 30.36, in line with regional currencies which strengthened against the dollar on the back of improvement in the global market’s investment sentiment Economic News Update • Oil climbed in New York after the U.S., U.K. and France launched cruise missiles and airstrikes at targets in Libya and as continuing unrest in the region renewed concerns the turmoil may spread and disrupt supplies Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Mar 21, 2011 There is likely to be more interest rate hikes this year for Macro and Market Outlook China but monetary tightening for maintenance of Global stock markets closed higher on Friday (markets economic stability is viewed as a positive factor for the calmed down after Colonel Qaddafi called for a ceasefire medium run. At the same time, China is also allowing its on Friday) but still ended the week lower. Key concerns currency to strengthen slowly, as cheaper import prices continue to be the economic impact of Japan’s disasters could help quell imported inflation locally. This morning, and the unrests in the Arab states, especially after the China sets the USD/CNY reference rate at a record low of attacks on Libya by the international coalition under the 6.5632 once again (Fri at 6.5668) name of the UN which includes the U.S., U.K., and France as key mission leaders. 370 70 US Treasuries and Thai rates 350 65 Treasury futures contracts fell for a third day as Japan 330 made progress in cooling nuclear reactors at the 60 Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant, easing concern a meltdown 310 55 would endanger global economic growth. 290 270 50 Strategists including Jim Caron at Morgan Stanley & Co. said the Japan earthquake and tsunami and Middle-East 250 45 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 unrest won’t derail the world economy. “Market risks are skewed for rates to rise,” analysts at New York-based MSCI All country index (LHS) Bloomberg GCC200 index for Africa&Middle East (RHS) Morgan Stanley led by Caron said in a March 18 report. Bonds rose last week as the events spurred demand for Equities among the economies in the Arab gulf also rose the safest securities. as Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah announced further increase in public spending (including some $67 billion on The yield on 10-year Treasury futures contracts for June housing construction), after he had announced a $36billion delivery rose two basis points to 3.55 percent at 9 a.m. in package in February. Singapore, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. (Source: Bloomberg) Thailand’s custom-cleared exports and imports in February continued to show strength in economic recovery with key S&P Index (% ) manufacturing products seeing an export growth rate of 1400 4.0 29.9% yoy. The trade balance also reverted to a surplus, at 1300 $1,767.6mn, compared to that of January’s deficit of 3.5 $856.8mn. Unwrought gold exports accounted for much of 1200 3.0 the trade surplus, recording at $1,240mn ($58mn in Jan). 1100 % yoy 2.5 1000 80 4000 60 3000 900 2.0 40 2000 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 20 1000 S&P Index 10yr Treasury yield 0 0 -20 -1000 -40 -2000 Thai interest rate: Bond yields were little changed but -60 -3000 demand was observed in the mid-curve bonds from foreign Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 investors. The market is waiting for the MPC minutes due Trade balance ($ mn, right axis) Export, % yoy Import, % yoy this Wednesday for cues of monetary policy going forward. Meanwhile, the PDMO would also be announcing its bond supply for the next quarter towards the end of the month. China raised the its banking sector’s reserve requirement ratio for the third time this year by another 50bp to 20% % Interest rate swaps (large banks and 18% for small banks), effective March 4.0 25th. This is in line with the market’s expectation and the 3.5 recent comments by the PBoC Governor that the 3.0 authorities had to do more to keep inflationary pressure low and expectations anchored. 2.5 % 2.0 20 1.5 19 1.0 18 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 17 16 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 15 14 13 12 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 major banks small banks 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Mar 21, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Fri 18-Mar-11 Thu 17-Mar-11 % Change 1.44 1.42 USD/THB 30.36 30.48 -0.39 1.40 USD/JPY 80.77 80.70 +0.09 1.38 EUR/USD 1.419 1.400 +1.35 1.36 GBP/USD 1.6227 1.6073 +0.96 1.34 1.32 USD/CHF 0.9006 0.9163 -1.71 1.30 USD/SGD 1.2734 1.2819 -0.66 1.28 USD/TWD 29.59 29.54 +0.17 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan 14-Feb 1-Mar 16-Mar USD/KRW 1,125.8 1,133.55 -0.68 EUR/USD USD/PHP 43.62 43.75 -0.30 USD/IDR 8,800 8,772 +0.32 EUR/USD climbed higher to 1.419 on global market’s optimism but we would have to watch for the EU summit USD/MYR 3.051 3.065 -0.46 towards the end of this week for further updates on how the USD/CNY 6.569 6.572 -0.05 EU nations would deal with debt problems. Source: Reuters .FX Consensus Forecast USD/JPY closed lower to 80.77 after a strong rebound above 81.00 as G7 central banks begun FX intervention on Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Friday morning. The near-term outlook on the yen is still USD/THB 30.29 30.00 29.00 one of an appreciating trend as repatriation is unavoidable as Japan rebuilds and insurance companies sell assets to USD/JPY 80.98 85.00 88.00 make payments. On the longer-run, however, the market EUR/USD 1.42 1.38 1.35 continues to talk about a weaker yen due to Japan’s GBP/USD 1.62 1.63 1.63 mounting public debt and risks of economic slowdown if Japan cannot escape from its deflationary trap. USD/CNY 6.57 6.45 6.30 85.00 USD/SGD 1.27 1.26 1.23 84.00 USD/IDR 8,765 8,825 8,800 83.00 USD/MYR 3.04 3.00 2.97 82.00 USD/PHP 43.63 43.30 42.00 81.00 USD/KRW 1,128 1,099 1,070 80.00 USD/TWD 29.58 29.10 28.50 79.00 AUD/USD 1.00 1.01 0.98 78.00 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar NZD/USD 0.73 0.74 0.75 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB USD/JPY Currency Pair Targets USD/THB closed lower to 30.36, in line with regional Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 currencies which strengthened against the dollar on the back of improvement in the global market’s investment USD/THB 30.29 30.00 29.00 sentiment. USD/THB saw little changes on Friday for the JPYTHB 37.40 35.29 32.95 lack of major market-moving factors. EURTHB 42.90 41.40 39.15 31.10 GBP/THB 49.09 48.90 47.27 30.90 CNY/THB 4.61 4.65 4.60 30.70 30.50 AUD/THB 30.16 30.30 28.42 30.30 CHF/THB 22.14 22.20 21.75 30.10 SGD/THB 23.79 23.81 23.58 29.90 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 29.70 29.50 KBank NEER Index 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar Current 98.28 USD/THB YTD + 5.53% vs 52 weeks ago + 2.16% vs 1mth ago - 0.10% vs 1 week ago - 0.08% vs 1 day ago + 0.01% vs long term average + 10.40% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Mar 21, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT bonds Mar 18 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB116A 2.63 2.58 2.54 2.50 2.45 2.41 2.37 2.32 2.03 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB11NA 3.51 3.29 3.07 2.86 2.64 2.43 2.21 1.99 1.53 BOT133B 2.00 15,000 2.60875/2.65875 2.640050 0.70 LB123A 4.08 3.75 3.42 3.09 2.76 2.43 2.11 1.78 1.20 CB11405A 0.04 85,000 2.310/2.350 2.330060 1.27 LB12NA 5.14 4.58 4.02 3.46 2.90 2.34 1.78 1.22 0.41 Source: ThaiBMA LB133A 5.86 5.16 4.45 3.75 3.04 2.34 1.63 0.93 -0.03 LB137A 6.40 5.58 4.77 3.96 3.15 2.34 1.53 0.72 -0.34 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB13OA 6.82 5.91 5.01 4.10 3.20 2.29 1.39 0.48 -0.68 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB143A 7.30 6.29 5.28 4.27 3.26 2.25 1.24 0.23 -1.03 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB145A 7.62 6.53 5.43 4.34 3.24 2.14 1.05 -0.05 -1.39 LB17OA 7.09 10,000 30-Mar-11 10-Oct-17 - LB145B 7.61 6.52 5.42 4.33 3.23 2.14 1.04 -0.05 -1.40 Source: ThaiBMA LB14DA 8.45 7.17 5.89 4.61 3.32 2.04 0.76 -0.52 -2.05 Auction Calendar of BOT Bonds LB155A 9.22 7.75 6.28 4.81 3.34 1.87 0.40 -1.07 -2.78 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB157A 9.10 7.67 6.24 4.81 3.38 1.95 0.52 -0.91 -2.59 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB15DA 10.04 8.37 6.69 5.01 3.34 1.66 -0.01 -1.69 -3.61 CB11421C 0.08 25,000 22-Mar-11 21-Apr-11 - LB167A 10.74 8.93 7.13 5.33 3.52 1.72 -0.08 -1.88 -3.93 CB11623B 0.25 20,000 22-Mar-11 23-Jun-11 - LB16NA 11.25 9.32 7.38 5.45 3.52 1.58 -0.35 -2.28 -4.46 - CB11922A 0.50 12,000 22-Mar-11 22-Sep-11 LB171A 11.35 9.41 7.47 5.53 3.60 1.66 -0.28 -2.22 -4.40 Source: ThaiBMA LB175A 11.87 9.80 7.74 5.67 3.61 1.54 -0.52 -2.59 -4.90 LB183A 13.19 10.81 8.44 6.07 3.69 1.32 -1.05 -3.42 -6.04 LB183B 12.93 10.62 8.31 6.00 3.70 1.39 -0.92 -3.22 -5.78 LB191A 13.69 11.20 8.72 6.23 3.74 1.26 -1.23 -3.71 -6.45 LB196A 14.59 11.86 9.14 6.41 3.69 0.97 -1.76 -4.48 -7.45 LB198A 14.42 11.75 9.09 6.43 3.76 1.10 -1.56 -4.22 -7.13 LB19DA 14.69 11.96 9.24 6.51 3.79 1.06 -1.66 -4.38 -7.35 LB213A 16.10 13.03 9.96 6.90 3.83 0.77 -2.29 -5.36 -8.67 LB214A 15.67 12.72 9.76 6.81 3.86 0.91 -2.04 -4.98 -8.18 LB22NA 17.72 14.26 10.81 7.36 3.91 0.45 -2.99 -6.44 -10.14 LB233A 18.19 14.65 11.11 7.57 4.03 0.49 -3.04 -6.57 -10.36 LB236A 19.29 15.48 11.66 7.85 4.04 0.23 -3.58 -7.38 -11.44 LB244A 19.41 15.58 11.74 7.91 4.08 0.24 -3.58 -7.41 -11.48 LB24DA 20.03 16.04 12.06 8.08 4.10 0.13 -3.85 -7.82 -12.04 LB267A 20.55 16.45 12.36 8.26 4.17 0.08 -4.01 -8.10 -12.44 LB283A 22.24 17.72 13.21 8.70 4.19 -0.32 -4.82 -9.32 -14.07 LB296A 23.52 18.69 13.85 9.03 4.20 -0.62 -5.44 -10.26 -15.32 LB383A 28.35 22.32 16.30 10.29 4.29 -1.72 -7.71 -13.71 -19.94 LB396A 29.12 22.91 16.71 10.51 4.32 -1.86 -8.04 -14.21 -20.63 Average 13.13 10.74 8.35 5.97 3.58 1.19 -1.19 -3.57 -6.20 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Mar 21, 2011 Hedge funds slashed bullish oil bets from an all-time high Economic News Update on concern that demand in Japan will tumble after the country’s biggest earthquake. About 29 percent of the Oil Rises After Military Strikes Against country’s refining capacity has been shut, Petroleum Libya, Mideast Unrest: Oil climbed in New York Association of Japan data show. after the U.S., U.K. and France launched cruise missiles and airstrikes at targets in Libya and as continuing unrest The funds and other large speculators decreased net-long in the region renewed concerns the turmoil may spread positions, or wagers on rising prices, by 13 percent in the and disrupt supplies. seven days ended March 15, the most since the week ended Jan. 25, according to the Commodity Futures Futures advanced as much as 2.3 percent after Libyan Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders leader Muammar Qaddafi vowed to repel allied forces report. (Source: Bloomberg) pounding military installations. Ninety percent of Bahrain Petroleum Co.’s employees went on strike last week in response to a police crackdown on anti-government demonstrations, while Yemen declared a state of emergency on March 18. Crude oil for April delivery gained as much as $2.28 to $103.35 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $103.26 at 12:58 p.m. Sydney time. The contract, which expires tomorrow, dropped 35 cents to $101.07 on March 18. The more- actively traded May contract rose as much as $2.42 to $104.27. Brent crude oil for May settlement increased $2.01, or 1.8 percent, to $115.94 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract fell 97 cents, or 0.8 percent, to end the session at $113.93 a barrel on March 18. A no-fly zone is now in place over Libya, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said yesterday. The coalition ordered Qaddafi to withdraw his forces from major cities after weeks of fighting with rebels that has left hundreds dead in the bloodiest of popular uprisings to have swept the Middle East this year. Bahrain’s government declared a three-month state of emergency on March 15 after troops from Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states arrived to support the administration in quelling more than a month of protests led by the Shiite Muslim majority, which is calling for democracy and civil rights in the Sunni-ruled kingdom. Libyan output has fallen to less than 400,000 barrels a day, about a quarter of the production before the crisis, and may stop, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Co., said on March 19. The country produced 1.59 million barrels a day in January, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Libya’s oil exports may be halted for “many months” because of damage to facilities and sanctions following a rebellion against Qaddafi, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report on March 15. There is no need to call a special meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to address the situation in Libya, said Abdullah Al-Attiyah, Qatar’s Market Strategists: deputy prime minister and former oil minister. OPEC Nalin Chutchotitham supplies about 40 percent of the world’s crude. Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Mar 21, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 03/17/2011 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Mar-12 388K 385K 397K 401K 03/17/2011 19:30 US Continuing Claims Mar-05 3750K 3706K 3771K 3786K 03/17/2011 20:15 US Industrial Production FEB 0.60% -0.10% -0.10% 0.30% 03/17/2011 20:15 US Capacity Utilization FEB 76.50% 76.30% 76.10% 76.40% 03/17/2011 20:45 US Bloomberg Economic Expectations MAR -- -8 4 -- 03/17/2011 21:00 US Leading Indicators FEB 0.90% 0.80% 0.10% -- 03/18/2011 07:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence FEB 47 38 47 48 03/18/2011 07:30 AU RBA Foreign Exchange Transactn FEB -- 414M 326M -- 03/18/2011 09:00 CH China February Property Prices 03/18/2011 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI JAN F -- 105.9 106.2 -- 03/18/2011 12:00 JN Leading Index CI JAN F -- 101.5 101.9 -- 03/18/2011 13:00 TH Customs Exports (YoY) FEB 17.00% 31.00% 22.30% -- 03/18/2011 13:00 TH Customs Imports (YoY) FEB 21.20% 22.50% 33.30% -- 03/18/2011 13:00 TH Customs Trade Balance FEB -$189M $1768M -$857M -- 03/18/2011 14:00 GE Producer Prices (MoM) FEB 0.70% 0.70% 1.20% -- 03/18/2011 14:00 GE Producer Prices (YoY) FEB 6.30% 6.40% 5.70% -- 03/18/2011 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Mar-11 -- $18.2B $18.4B -- 03/18/2011 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Mar-11 -- $181.9B $180.8B -- 03/18/2011 14:45 FR Wages (QoQ) 4Q F -- 0.30% 0.20% -- 03/18/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone Current Account nsa JAN -- -19.6B -0.1B 1.0B 03/18/2011 16:00 EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA JAN -- -0.7B -13.3B -12.5B 03/18/2011 16:00 IT Trade Balance (Total) (Euros) JAN -- -6554M -2723M -2775M 03/18/2011 16:00 IT Trade Balance Eu (Euros) JAN -- -786M -1394M -1446M 03/18/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa JAN -2.5B -3.3B -2.3B -1.1B 03/18/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance JAN -9.0B -14.8B -0.5B -- 03/18/2011 17:00 IT Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) JAN -1.00% -0.30% 5.40% 5.40% 03/18/2011 17:00 IT Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) JAN 16.00% 17.50% 17.40% -- 03/18/2011 17:00 IT Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) JAN 0.50% 1.00% -0.30% -0.20% 03/18/2011 17:00 IT Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) JAN -- 8.00% 8.40% 8.50% 03/18/2011 18:00 CA Consumer Price Index FEB -- 118.1 117.8 -- 03/18/2011 18:00 CA Consumer Price Index MoM FEB 0.40% 0.30% 0.30% -- 03/18/2011 18:00 CA Consumer Price Index YoY FEB 2.30% 2.20% 2.30% -- 03/18/2011 18:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core MoM FEB 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -- 03/18/2011 18:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core YoY FEB 1.10% 0.90% 1.40% -- 03/18/2011 PH Balance of Payments FEB -- -$133M $1606M -- 03/21/2011 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) MAR -- 0.80% 3.10% -- 03/21/2011 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY) MAR -- 0.90% 0.30% -- 03/21/2011 15:00 TA Export Orders (YoY) FEB 12.90% -- 13.47% -- 03/21/2011 19:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index FEB -- -- -0.16 -- 03/21/2011 21:00 US Existing Home Sales FEB 5.11M -- 5.36M -- 03/21/2011 21:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM FEB -4.70% -- 2.70% -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.