A lecture about the future of work, held on Kasavuori School on March 27th, 2014.

2. Speech:
 10^7 bits
 Tribes
Writing:
 10^11 bits
 City cultures
Printing:
 10^17 bits
 Renaissance
 Industrial society
Digital:
 10^25 bits
 ??? culture
Donald Robertson: New Renaissance

3. Gutenberg Encyclopedia
… but our brains are still in the
speech learning stage

4. The Future Starts Today
Working the Future
Jyrki J.J. Kasvi

5. Take us prophets with a pinch of salt
 ”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer
in their home.”
 Ken Olson, President of DEC, World Future Society Convention, 1977
 "You aren't going to turn passive consumers into active
trollers on the Internet."
 Stephen Weiswasser, senior VP, ABC television, 1989
 “Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.”
 Sir Alan Sugar, 2005
 By 2015 one third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots
 US Department of Defense, 2006
 “By 2015–2020 every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, “
 The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007
 When it comes to information society, science fiction has hit the mark much better
 But how about robotics?
 Popular culture has formed our attitudes and perceptions on robots and robotic society

6. 24.9.2009 www.kasvi.org 6
E.g. ”Brain pacer”
Science fiction has also inspired developers
of ICT (True Names, Neuromancer, …)

7. Euro debt crises come and go
True megatrends reshape our societies for good
 Climate change and environmental sustainability
– A growing part of economic growth is going to be used on
emission control and adaptation to climate change
 Global demographic change
– The average Finnish age is about 40 years
• Half of Finnish voters using their vote are pensioners - a retired nation
– In developing countries the great generations are becoming adults
• Every third Egyptian is under 15 years of age
 Global networking and dependency
– The rise of BRIC countires to economic, cultural and military superpowers
 New technologies are reshaping our societies
– ICT now penetrates the structures of our society

8. Finnish dependency ratio collapses … right about now
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StatisticsFinland
People under 15 and over 65 years of age per 100 working age people
0-14 yr olds Over 65 yr olds

9. Megatrends converge, e.g. robot baby seals were used
to comfort elderly Japanese who had lost everything in
the tsunami
(NHK Video screenshot)

10. www.tieke.fi
CenterforIntelligentRoboticsKIST,Korea.
Helsinkicityistestingcarerobotsfortheelderly

11. Sea levels are not starting to rise
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Globalwarmingart.

12. Running out of … everything
 With current usage we run out of (New Scientist)
 indium, terbium, hafnium and lead on this decade
 silver, tin, antimony and uranium on next decade
 Nickel, platinum, tantalum, zinc, chrome, copper and gold on this century
 New technologies influence demand for raw materials
 E.g. fuel cells require loads of platinum
– Street dust is already “mined” for platinum falling off from car catalysers
– 1,5 / 1.000.000 street dust particles can be platinum
 Efficient solar cells would be on market if there were enough indium and gallium
 China has 95% of know reserves of rare earths and controls also African mines
– The civil war in Congo is a war to control local tantalum mines
 Past economic growth has been based on expanding
consumption of raw materials and energy
 Future growth has to be based on increasing raw material productivity
 China is already buying and storing electronic waste

13. Ashley Felton: Public domain
A future mine

14. Verace Sustainability Report 2006
Why make pulp and paper in Finland in the future…
• from slowly growing expensive trees?
• far away from still growing paper markets?
• with Finnish labour costs?
Finland was one of the winners of globalization

15. The World in 2050’s
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10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
China
USA
India
Brazil
Russia
GDPbillionUS$
GoldmanSachs,ECSResearch
Of course economy does not develop linearly like this, but if it would:
• Asia returns back to the centre of the World
• Europe probably misses its chance to stay a world power and becomes a tourist
attraction to Asians, Brazilians and Indians.

16. Technology is our only change to prosper
Adaptation to ageing population, global competition and climate
change requires a productivity leap! Pioneers will reap the profits!
 Digitalisation penetrates everything from exercise to housing
 Internet shopping, augmented reality, smart buildings, biosensors, …
 Robotisation brings robots from factory floors to living rooms
 E.g. transportation and agriculture are going to become automated in 2020’s
 Artificial intelligences automate mental jobs
 Stock market, journalism, social services, …
 IBM Watson has been opened for public use
 3d-printing revolutionalises manufacturing
 Manufacturing, logistics and shopping change
 The role of design increases
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17. 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 17
You drink milk milked by a robot.

18. Digitalisation is only just beginning
 The steam engine invented in the late 17th
century revolutinalised economies and
societies in the early 19th century
 Education, labour market, politics, economy, family, …
 E.g. schools are still following an industrial paradigm
 E.g. our immaterial property rights system with patents and copyrights
 Digital technology invented on the 1940’s is now reshaping our
societies and economies just as quickly and profoundly
 What is the home, school, work place, labour union, … of 2030’s like?
 A child going to first grade is still working on 2080’s!
 And (s)he is not taught to use computers even in high schools
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19. ”A harvester is just a PC in a special box.”
”It is hard to find ppl with programming skills to operate harvesters.”
CC 3.0 SA BY Heikki Valve
Digitalisation penetrates work

20. E.g. traffic becomes service
 Robot cars come to market by
year 2020
 Volvo develops autonomous trucks
 Legislation and attitudes bigger challenges than technology
 Car utilisation multiplies
 Only a third of the current number of cars is going to be needed
 Jobs in car manufacturing and selling diminish
 New jobs in vehicle AI development and ”mobility operator” business
 Road investments are made for decades
 Forecasts are based on the assumption that people own and drive their cars
 New jobs needed for drivers and road builders
 The logistic chain of Internet shopping reaches your home door
 New jobs required for salespeople
 New jobs creaded in logistics
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21. 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 21
Lockheed

22. Robots come to our living rooms
 Teller machines have replaced bank clerks
 Remember going to bank every other
day just to get some cash?
 But are teller machines robots or just clever automatons?
 Vacuum cleaners and lawn movers haven been replaced by
simple single task robots
 Well defined limited tasks are the first to be taken over by AI’s
 “Intelligent” washing machines analyze your laundry and
autonomously decide how to wash it
 Intelligent appliances make smart homes
 Robot police are coming to our streets
 But aren’t iRobot 510 PackBots just remote controlled machines?
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23. Does military/police iRobot PackBot pack
the same technologies as iRobot Roomba?

24. Robots are coming to our working places
 Productivity explosion corresponding to industrialisation
 Stupid industrial jobs are going the way of stupid agricultural jobs
 In 20 years a third of current jobs will be replaced by AI’s and robots
 … and agricultural robots are remaking agriculture too
 Totally new industries not viable
with human labor
 E.g. automatic waste sorting
 Appliances and machinery become
autonomous and networked
 Your car tells your house that you are
coming home: Warm the sauna.
 Your Polar stress sensor informs the
fridge: Cool another beer.
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ZenRobotics Recycler is a true robot
reacting to its environment instead of
repeating preordained moves.

25. Aseta project
UniversityofNewSouthWales
If I were a farmer I would start
taking coding lessons right now

26. Media revolution
 Internet has already replaced television
 Finns spend as much time in Internet as watching TV
 Watcher controlled ipTV replaces broadcast TV
 E-readers replace newspapers and books
 Bookstores are facing the fate of record stores
 Games have been a bigger industry than movies for 10 years
 Finnish game development industry needs 600 new employees every year.
 Mail delivery is dvindling
 Paper bills and newspapers are disappearing
 Delivery of Internet shopping

27. New competency requirements
 Life management skills
 Hot to fit work, family and life together
 Competency management skills
 Life long updating of competencies
 Knowledge management skills
 Information fatigue is a major occupational hazard in information society
 What about ICT competencies?
 ICT competencies should be self evident citizen skills
 Even young people have trouble using computers for something else than social
media and gaming
Basic-
Program ming

28. Information society citizen skills
 Basic ICT use skills
 Lacking in every age group
 Media reading and writing skills
 Everybody can be a mass media
 Journalistic principles and amateur media
 Data security skills
 You cannot trust even respected data security companies any more
 Digital social capital
 How to be civil in social media
 How and where do we learn these skills?
 Finland is one of the only countries in Europe where ICT is not compulsory at school
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CC2.0SharealikeAttributionDeryckHodge

29. Backslashes to be expected
 Early 19th century weaving machines were
1st generation industrial automation
 Industry, working life and society changed faster than
people and world economy were able to adapt
 Resulting in violent luddite revolts
 Death penalty for destruction of a machine in the U.K.
 In the economic race of companies and
nations no-one can afford to take a breather and think
 Forerunner corporations and nations enjoy both the benefits and the risks
 How do we direct a share of the productivity increase created
with robots and AI’s into retraining, social benefits etc. that
would soften the impact on people’s lives?
 … without hindering utilization of the possibilities of new technologies
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30. Please welcome our new computer overlords
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31. 30.9.2010 www.kasvi.org 31
Sukupuolten välinen digikuilu?
Discussion
U.S. Army Photo