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4 May 2010


                                                                                                             Equity Strategy
                                                                                                             Weekly
                                                                                                            www.sgresearch.com




Equity Prism
Spain is not Greece: we are now tactically bullish
                               0                                                                                             Top-down                 Spain is not the next to drop
                               -2
                                                                                                                             We were surprised by the S&P rating downgrade on Spain
                                                                                   DE
  Public deficit (% of GDP)




                               -4                                           AU
                                                                          NL
                                                                                                                             last week. While we share the point of view that the country
                                                                                    EMU                      IT
                               -6                                                                 BG                         needs to reduce its deficit, public debt is lower than its euro
                                                                                       FR
                               -8                                                                                            area neighbours. We strongly believe that Spain is not the
                                                                                    PT                                       next domino in Southern Europe to fall, as its cyclical
                              -10

                              -12
                                                                     ES                                                      outlook is improving. While unemployment is high and the
                                                                            IR                              GR
                                                                                                                             country needs fiscal tightening, productivity is improving on
                              -14
                                    0         20           40       60            80          100          120    140        the back of large job cuts, and competitiveness could
                                                                   Public debt (% of GDP)
                                                                                                                             surprise those who remain sceptical.


                                             Strong correlation between equity and spreads                                   Country allocation               Buy the IBEX as fears
                                                                                                                             appear excessive
                      12500                                                                                        2.5

                      11500                                                                                        3.0
                                                                                                                             Year-to-date the Spanish (-12.0%) stock market has been
                      10500                                                                                        3.5
                                                                                                                             one of the worst performers along with the Greek (-16.2%)
                              9500                                                                                 4.0
                                                                                                                             and Portuguese (-12.1%) indices. With a low valuation (20%
                              8500                                                                                 4.5       discount to the Europe index on 2010e P/E and 29.8% on
                              7500                                                                                 5.0       trailing data) and already weak earnings growth discounted
                                                                                                                             for the coming years (for 2010e +1.5% vs 32.1% for
                              6500                                                                                 5.5
                                    Aug-08   Nov-08     Feb-09     May-09        Aug-09     Nov-09      Feb-10               Europe), we believe short-term potential for disappointment
                                                      IBEX (lhs)          Spain 5yr CDS (log inverted)                       is now limited. We therefore suggest a tactical buy on the
                                                                                                                             IBEX.


                              60                                                                                             Sector allocation Spanish banks heavily
                              50                                                                                             exposed to fast-growing Latin America
                              40                   18m forward EPS growth (%)                                                Greek, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banks are
                              30                                                                                             vulnerable, but Greek banks are probably most at risk. While
                                                                                                                             large Spanish banks are well capitalised and exposed to the
                              20
                                                                                                                             fast-growing Latin American region, Italian banks have high
                              10
                                                                                                                             exposure to the Continent. Overall, we believe that profit
                               0
                                                                                                                             growth expectations for Spanish companies overestimate
                                   00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10
                      -10                                                                                                    the impact of the bleak debt environment but underestimate
                                                           Spanish Banks               European Banks
                                                                                                                             potential growth from Latin America.
Source: SG Cross Asset Research, Datastream


                               Equity Strategy                                         Equity Strategy                           Equity Technical Analysis           Specialist sales
                               Claudia Panseri                                         Charlotte Lize                            Loic de Galzain                     Paul Jackson
                               (33) 1 58 98 53 35                                      (33) 1 42 13 83 98                        (33) 1 42 13 47 12                  (44) 20 7762 5921
                               claudia.panseri@sgcib.com                               charlotte.lize@sgcib.com                  loic.de galzain@sgcib.com           paul.jackson@sgcib.com

Please see important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document


                                    Macro                   Commodities                          Forex                   Rates                    Equity          Credit                 Derivatives
Equity Prism




Contents
3          Asset allocation by sector
           0




4          Investment summary
           1H




5          Spain is not Greece: we are now tactically bullish
           2H




5          Why Spain has been underperforming Italy and Ireland…
           3H




5          …while Spanish bonds have been more resilient?
           4H




7          Spain’s economic situation not as bad as feared
           5H




9          PIIGS market structure penalises market performance
           6H




10 Consensus forecasts already discount the worst…
           7H




11 …but fail to reflect potential benefits of Latin American exposure
           8H




12 Spain’s valuation discounts a very bleak environment
           9H




Tables index                                                               Charts index
3    European recommended sector allocation
     10H                                                                   4    Valuation closes at the 20y bottom
                                                                                16H




9    Sector breakdown for PIIGS countries
     1H                                                                    5    Why should Spain underperform Italy and Ireland?
                                                                                17H




10   IMF gross domestic product expectations (%, constant prices)
     12H                                                                   6    Spanish CDS spreads have been unaffected
                                                                                18H




10   IBES EPS growth expectations (%)
     13H                                                                   6    10y bond yield spread to German yield
                                                                                19H




11   Spanish companies with sales exposure to Latin America of above 10%
     14H                                                                   7    Greek consumers likely to be hard hit by fiscal tightening
                                                                                20H




12   IBES P/E forecasts (x)
     15H                                                                   7    Greece has the highest public debt, but Ireland and Spain show the
                                                                                21H




                                                                                steepest deterioration
                                                                           8    Harmonised competitiveness indicators (ULC-deflated)
                                                                                2H




                                                                           8    France’s public debt is higher than Spain’s!
                                                                                23H




                                                                           9    IBEX 35 – lack of pharma, tech and consumer goods
                                                                                24H




                                                                           9    Banks are penalised by contagion fears
                                                                                25H




                                                                           10   While EPS growth is largely below the European average…
                                                                                26H




                                                                           10   …sales growth is slightly above
                                                                                27H




                                                                           11   Long-term earnings growth (%) – Spain more resilient to the downside
                                                                                28H




                                                                           12   P/E multiples discount Spain’s bleak environment
                                                                                29H




                                                                           12   Now valuation is close to the bottom seen back in 1992
                                                                                30H




2                                       4 May 2010
Equity Prism




Asset allocation by sector
European recommended sector allocation
                                  MSCI        Last        Changes        New             SG Premium List
                                    %    recommendation    today    recommendation
Oil & Gas                         10.9   OVERWEIGHT
Integrated Oil Companies          10.1    Overweight                                   Royal Dutch Shell
Oil Services                       0.8      Neutral
Basic Industries                   9.7   OVERWEIGHT
Chemicals                          3.0    Overweight                                         BASF
Construction Materials             0.9    Overweight
Containers & Packaging             0.0      Neutral
Steel, Metals & Mining             5.4      Neutral                                       ArcelorMittal
Paper, Packaging                   0.3    Overweight
Industrials                       10.0   OVERWEIGHT
Aerospace & Defence                0.9      Neutral
Construction                       1.5    Overweight                                     Saint Gobain
Capital Goods                      5.4    Overweight                                    Vallourec, Volvo
Transportation & Other services    2.1    Overweight                                        Fraport
Consumer Discretionary             7.4   OVERWEIGHT
Automobiles & Components           1.8    Overweight                                        Daimler
Durables, Apparel & Luxury         1.5      Neutral
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure      0.8    Overweight                                 Accor, Compass Group
Media                              1.9    Overweight                                    Reed Elevier Plc
Retailing (general)                1.2      Neutral                                        Kingfisher
Consumer Staples                  12.0     NEUTRAL
Food & Staples Retailing           2.1    Overweight
Beverages                          2.3      Neutral
Food                               4.8   Underweight
Tobacco                            1.5   Underweight
Household & Personal Care          1.1      Neutral
Healthcare (includes Pharma)      10.1 UNDERWEIGHT                                   Fresenius Medical Care
Financials                        23.7     NEUTRAL
Commercials Banks                 13.3      Neutral
Investment Banks                   4.2      Neutral                                         Barclays
Insurance                          5.1    Overweight                                    ING, Swiss Life
Real Estate                        0.9      Neutral
Information Technology             2.9   OVERWEIGHT
Software & IT Services             1.0    Overweight                                          SAP
Technology Hardware & Eqpt.        1.5      Neutral
Semi-conductors                    0.4    Overweight
Telecommunication Services         6.7 UNDERWEIGHT
Diversified Telecom                4.7   Underweight
Wireless Telecom                   1.9   Underweight
Utilities                          6.0     NEUTRAL
Source: SG Cross Asset Research




4 May 2010                                                                                                    3
Equity Prism




    Investment summary
         Spanish fixed income more resilient than equities The widening gap between euro area and
    US growth coupled with concerns about a potential eurozone break-up should continue to exert
    pressure on the euro area. That said, notwithstanding rising pessimism on the eurozone, we
    strongly believe that some countries in the region remain attractively valued (we are already
    Overweight on Germany). While the risk of fiscal tightening looks extremely high in Portugal, Italy,
    Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIIGS), we believe that after its recent underperformance, the Spanish
    index is attractively valued and is set to outperform other PIIGS in the short term. The relative
    resiliency of the Spanish bond market (both corporate and government bonds) also points to a
    probable over-reaction from equities investors compared with fixed income investors.

          Spain’s economic situation not as bad as feared     Spain is in a difficult public deficit
    position (-11% versus the GDP), which is deteriorating quickly. While we do not want to
    minimise the situation as unemployment is very high (19.4%) and restructuring will take time,
    Spain has already undergone 18 months of painful economic adjustment. The near-term
    outlook for the economy is admittedly bleak. Economic activity will likely stagnate this year, as
    fiscal policy tightens. But beyond 2010, the country should at least match the eurozone’s
    average growth rate (IMF 2012 GDP forecasts: 1.5% vs 1.8% for the euro area). Initial signs
    are encouraging as labour market adjustments have helped to boost labour productivity and
    cut unit labour costs, restoring some of the competitiveness that had been lost. More needs to
    be done, but this is a positive development .        0F0F
                                                                1




          Spanish profit growth discounts sovereign risk but not Latin American demand According
    to IBES forecasts, Spanish 2010-2012e profits growth is the lowest within the euro area and
    stands even below that expected in Greece. We strongly believe that consensus forecasts are
    overestimating the impact of debt on the Spanish financial system (financial stocks represent
    32.8% of the IBEX’s market cap) and underestimating potential growth from Latin America.
    While Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banks are vulnerable, Greek banks are probably most at
    risk. And while large Spanish banks are well capitalised and exposed to the fast-growing Latin
    American region, Italian banks have high exposure to the Continent, with loan coverage well
    below the mean.

        We are tactically bullish on Spain While Latin America is growing faster than the rest of
    the world, Spain’s multiples are trading at a discount to the European average.

    Spain’s debt situation is worrying indeed; but                  Valuation closes at the 20y bottom
    we also believe that Spanish companies’ high                        50%
                                                                        40%        Historical Spanish P/E discount to
    cash flow profiles and savings rates should                         30%
                                                                                   European average

    help large caps in the event of a severe fiscal                     20%
                                                                        10%
    tightening policy. Therefore, with the Spanish                       0%
                                                                       -10%
    market trading at a 29.8% discount to the
                                                                       -20%
                                                                                                 -43%                   -29.8%
    European average (the bottom was 43% in                            -30%
                                                                       -40%
    1992), we are tactically buyers of the IBEX.                       -50%
                                                                              90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

                                                                    Source: SG Cross Asset Research




    1
        For more details please refer to page 69 of SG Global Economic Outlook dated 13 April 2010 “Reshuffling balances”

    and to the SG Economics report dated 22 April 2010 “No time for a Greek holiday”




4   4 May 2010
Equity Prism




Spain is not Greece: we are now tactically bullish

Since the beginning of the year, alpha generation has mainly come from country
allocation more than sector allocation. In our latest calls “Want to hedge euro sovereign
                                                                            31H




risk? Buy the DAX, stay Neutral on Banks” (13 April) and “Buy UK stocks on devaluation
                                                                      32H




fears” (20 April), we suggested taking advantage of rising fears about European
sovereign risk by building strategic positions (long-term) on the weakness of the euro or
the sterling versus the dollar.

Today’s call is a tactical one and the rationale behind it is based on our premise that last
week’s market reaction on Spain is excessive. Sovereign risk remains the main concern
for equity markets, especially after S&P slashed Greece’s credit rating by 3 notches to
BB+ with a negative outlook, Portugal’s long-term debt by 2 notches to A- and Spain’s
to AA with a negative outlook. However, we believe that this environment offers some
good buying opportunities, and Spain offers one of the best in our view.


Why Spain has been underperforming Italy and Ireland…
Why should Spanish equity markets underperform Italy and Ireland when both of the latter
have similar debt profiles and less resilient banking systems? Since the beginning of the year
the IBEX has strongly underperformed the DAX, which is perfectly rational considering the
difference in those countries’ debt, deficits and market structures. What seems odd is that
while sovereign risk is also worrying for Ireland and Italy, these two countries are performing
better than the Spanish stock market.


Why should Spain underperform Italy and Ireland?

   115
                                  ASE (Greece)     IBEX (Spain)
   110
                                  MIB (Italy)      PSI20 (Portugal)
   105
                                  ISEQ (Ireland)
   100

     95

     90

     85

     80

     75
      Jan-10                      Feb-10            Mar-10                        Apr-10

Source: SG Cross Asset Research




…while Spanish bonds have been more resilient?
Spanish fixed income assets and corporate and government bonds have been more resilient
than Portugal’s and as resilient as Italy’s. As explained by our economists in their report “No      3H




time for a Greek holiday” published on April 22, while Ireland, Portugal and Spain face very different
situations relative to Greece, their level of deficits and debt put them under pressure. Any
threat of a potential default by Greece would immediately raise concerns over the
sustainability of fiscal deficits in Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Concerns over Italy are more
subdued. Despite a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 115%, Italy has maintained a fairly tight grip on


4 May 2010                                                                                                5
Equity Prism




    its finances throughout the crisis, and as a result, its deficit reached only 5.3% in 2009. The
    underlying position of Italy’s public finances therefore looks under control. Only a modest
    effort will be necessary to stop the debt ratio from increasing again. While Spain has seen the
    steepest deterioration in the last year, it is protected by its history of managing sound fiscal
    policies pre-crisis and also by its size relative to its two European neighbours. This gives
    Spain a broader tax base and more diversified economy, which should make it easier to
    increase tax revenues if the need arises.


    Spanish CDS spreads have been unaffected

     1400

     1200

                              Portugal
     1000
                              Greece
      800
                              Spain

      600                     Italy

                              Ireland
      400

      200

        0
        Sep-09            Oct-09           Nov-09      Dec-09          Jan-10            Feb-10        Mar-10        Apr-10

    Source: SG Cross Asset Research




    Also, the spread between Spain and Germany’s 10-year bond yields has increased, but has
    been more resilient than in the case of Portugal and Ireland and in line with the Italian spread.


    10y bond yield spread to German yield

       800
                               Spanish spread                Greek spread                  Italian spread
       700
                               Irish spread                  Portuguese spread
       600

       500

       400

       300

       200

       100

          0
          Apr-08         Jul-08          Oct-08     Jan-09       Apr-09         Jul-09       Oct-09         Jan-10    Apr-10

    Source: SG Cross Asset Research




6   4 May 2010
Equity Prism




Spain’s economic situation not as bad as feared
We have already written more than once that the debt situation in the eurozone looks
increasingly worrisome and that the widening gap between euro area and US growth coupled
with concerns about a potential eurozone break-up should continue to exert pressure on the
euro. That said, notwithstanding rising pessimism on the eurozone, we strongly believe that
the region remains attractively valued – some countries more than others, and tactical calls
may help to generate profits. The Greek risk/reward profile looks less appealing as stringent
fiscal policy will be required to reduce the debt burden. Of course the risk of fiscal tightening
looks extremely high in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, but high saving rates in Spain and
improving productivity may be a cushion for the country.

Greek consumers likely to be hard hit by fiscal tightening

   30.0


                                                                                                              Euro area
   25.0
                                                                                                              France

   20.0                                                                                                       Italy

                                                                                                              Germany
   15.0
                                                                                                              UK

   10.0                                                                                                       Portugal

                                                                                                              Spain
     5.0
                                                                                                              Greece

     0.0                                                                                                      Ireland
           1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Source: SG Cross Asset Research


Spain is in a difficult position, and the situation is deteriorating quickly. While we do not want
to minimise the situation as unemployment is very high and restructuring will take time, Spain
has already undergone 18 months of painful economic adjustment. The current account deficit
in relation to GDP has more than halved to 4.6% from its peak in 2008, when in absolute
terms it was the second highest in the world after the US.


Greece has the highest public debt, but Ireland and Spain show the steepest deterioration

 30%                                                                                                                  140.0
                           2009         2010e        2011e          2009/2010 changes (%)

                                  Public Debt (% of GDP)                                                              120.0
 25%

                                                                                                                      100.0
 20%
                                                                                                                      80.0
 15%
                                                                                                                      60.0
 10%
                                                                                                                      40.0

  5%                                                                                                                  20.0

  0%                                                                                                                  0.0
           Ireland      Spain        UK       Portugal     France    Greece    Eurozone     Germany   Italy

Source: SG Cross Asset Research




4 May 2010                                                                                                                    7
Equity Prism




    The near-term outlook for the economy is admittedly bleak. Economic activity will likely
    stagnate this year, as fiscal policy tightens. And the economy is unlikely to regain its status as
    the fastest growing of the big four EC members anytime soon, as the country grapples with its
    structural problems. But beyond 2010, Spain’s growth should at least match the eurozone
    average growth rate. Initial signs are encouraging as labour market adjustments have helped
    to boost labour productivity and cut unit labour costs, consequently restoring some of the
    competitiveness that had been lost. More needs to be done, but this is a positive development
    that should be recognised. In addition, the current account deficit has effectively been cut in
    half, from 10% of GDP at the peak. This was not just the result of weak imports, but also of an
    above-average export recovery. The Spanish economy appears to be re-orientating itself
    towards exports. Lastly, although not yet complete, the excessive share of construction in the
    economy has shrunk.


    Harmonised competitiveness indicators (ULC-deflated)
     120
                                                                                                                              Spain
     115


     110
                                                                                                                                  Italy

     105

                                                                                                                     France
     100


                       95

                                                                                                                      Germany
                       90

                       85
             1995                          1997        1999        2001          2003           2005          2007         2009

    Source: ECB, SG Cross Asset Research




    The budget shortfall is beginning to roll over, a reduction plan is in place and the public debt-
    to-GDP ratio is 60%, barely more than half the Greek ratio. Most importantly, the inflation rate
    has converged with the eurozone average, one of many indicators confirming the decade-long
    adjustment to membership of the currency club is complete.

    France’s public debt is higher than Spain’s!

                                  0

                                  -2
                                                                                          DE
                                  -4                                                 AU
     Public deficit (% of GDP)




                                                                                NL
                                                                                          EMU                         IT
                                  -6                                                                      BG

                                                                                           FR
                                  -8
                                                                                           PT
                                 -10
                                                                          ES
                                 -12
                                                                                  IR                                 GR
                                 -14
                                       0          20          40          60              80            100           120                 140
                                                                               Public debt (% of GDP)

    Source: SG Cross Asset Research, SG Global Economic Research




8   4 May 2010
Equity Prism




                                                                                               PIIGS market structure penalises market performance
                                                                                               What has particularly penalised the IBEX relative to other PIIGS markets is its market
                                                                                               structure. For example, relative to the Irish Index (ISEQ), which accounts for 38.8% of
                                                                                               industrials benefiting from the weakness of the euro, the IBEX is mainly based on banks and
                                                                                               telecoms, which have been the main underperformers of this first part of the year. Relative to
                                                                                               the Italian Index, the IBEX has been underperforming because it has less exposure to the Oil &
                                                                                               Gas sector, usually resilient in a negative market.


                                                                                               Sector breakdown for PIIGS countries
                                                                                                                                                                               PSI 20         MIB 40            ISEQ         Athex 20            IBEX 35   DJ Stoxx 50
                                                                                               Basic Materials                                                                 4.2%             5%             2.0%             1.1%             10.8%          8.0%
                                                                                               Consumer Goods                                                                  0.0%           8.6%           18.2%            14.7%                0.5%        14.0%
                                                                                               Consumer Services                                                              13.1%           3.2%           17.7%            10.8%                7.3%         2.6%
                                                                                               Financials                                                                     15.2%          33.5%             9.0%           47.1%              32.8%         28.9%
                                                                                               Health Care                                                                     0.0%           0.0%             8.4%             0.0%               0.4%         3.6%
                                                                                               Industrials                                                                    13.2%           6.7%           38.8%              5.7%               8.7%         7.9%
                                                                                               Oil & Gas                                                                      16.3%          21.6%             5.7%             6.9%               5.0%         9.8%
                                                                                               Technology                                                                      0.0%           1.7%             0.1%             0.0%               0.5%         4.4%
                                                                                               Telecommunications                                                             12.7%           3.8%             0.1%             8.2%             16.1%          9.4%
                                                                                               Utilities                                                                      25.3%          16.1%             0.0%             5.5%             17.9%         11.4%
                                                                                                                                                                              100.0%         100.0%         100.0%             100%               100%         100%
                                                                                               Source: SG Cross Asset Research, Datastream




                                                                                               As previously mentioned, both the Spanish and the Italian indices are mainly composed of
                                                                                               financials stocks. The difference between the two banking systems is that while large Spanish
                                                                                               banks have their difficulties, they are well capitalised and their assets are heavily tilted towards
                                                                                               the fast-growing Latin American region. In contrast, Italian banks have high exposure to the
                                                                                               Continent.


IBEX 35 – lack of pharma, tech and consumer goods                                                                                                                               Banks are penalised by contagion fears
  40.0%                                                                                                                                                                          3000                                                                            100


  30.0%                                                                                                                                                                          2800                                                                            120
                                                                                                 IBEX 35                   DJ Stoxx 50

                                                                                                                                                                                 2600                                                                            140
  20.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 160
                                                                                                                                                                                 2400
  10.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 180
                                                                                                                                                                                 2200
   0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 200
                               Consumer Goods




                                                                                                                                             Telecommunications
                                                Consumer Services




                                                                                                                                Technology
                                                                                                                Oil& Gas
             Basic Materials




                                                                                                  Industrials
                                                                    Financials




                                                                                                                                                                  Utilities
                                                                                 Health Care




                                                                                                                                                                                 2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 220
                                                                                                                                                                                 1800         Greece stock index (lhs)

                                                                                                                                                                                              European Financials credit spread (inverted rhs)                   240
                                                                                                                                                                                 1600
                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-09       Sep-09         Nov-09          Jan-10           Mar-10

Source: SG Cross Asset Research




                                                                                               4 May 2010                                                                                                                                                                9
Equity Prism




                                                Consensus forecasts already discount the worst…
                                                The IBES figures highlight something which appears particularly odd: why are Greek
                                                companies expected to grow more than Spanish companies over the next three years?
                                                According to the IMF’s GDP growth forecasts, Greece should remain in recession for the next
                                                two years, while Spain, after this year’s negative economic growth, should enjoy a recovery in
                                                2011. Does this mean that analysts are underestimating the potential for a rebound?


                                                IMF gross domestic product expectations (%, constant prices)
                                                                                                            2008                       2009                 2010e             2011e
                                                Greece                                                     2.02                     -1.96                   -2.00             -1.05
                                                Ireland                                                    -3.04                    -7.10                   -1.55             1.94
                                                Italy                                                      -1.32                    -5.04                    0.84             1.16
                                                Portugal                                                   0.04                     -2.68                    0.29             0.65
                                                Spain                                                      0.86                     -3.64                   -0.41             0.90
                                                Source: SG Cross Asset Research, International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010




                                                IBES EPS growth expectations (%)
                                                                                                            2009                    2010e                   2011e             2012e
                                                Spain                                                      -10.0                        1.5                  13.6             11.6
                                                Italy                                                      -41.3                       17.4                  28.2             15.8
                                                Ireland                                                   -152.1                        na                       na          256.1
                                                European average                                           -23.1                       32.1                  22.1             12.8
                                                Greece                                                     -41.8                        6.1                  27.6             19.4
                                                Portugal                                                   10.5                        -5.0                  17.7             14.0
                                                Source: SG Cross Asset Research




                                                Even though bottom-line forecasts are far below the European average, top-line forecasts are
                                                slightly above the European market. The problem is that Spanish operating leverage is low,
                                                consistent with a structure based on Utilities and Telecoms, which have a high proportion of
                                                fixed to flexible costs and therefore more capital intensity than the European average.


While EPS growth is largely below the European average…                                         …sales growth is slightly above
     35                                                                                             12             12m forward Sales growth (%)
                12m forward EPS growth (%)
     30                                                                                             10

     25                                                                                              8
                                       Spain        Europe
     20                                                                                              6

     15                                                                                              4

     10                                                                                              2

      5                                                                                              0

      0                                                                                              -2
                                                                                                                               Spain          Europe
      -5                                                                                             -4

     -10                                                                                             -6
           04       05            06           07          08          09          10                     04           05          06             07        08        09     10



Source: SG Cross Asset Research




10                                              4 May 2010
Equity Prism




…but fail to reflect potential benefits of Latin American exposure
While we are negative on Spanish growth, we believe that upside could potentially be stronger
for Spanish companies than for Greek or Portuguese companies, as Spain’s profit growth is
driven by Latin American demand. As Latin America is expected to grow more than developed
countries (SG 2010e forecasts: real GDP 4.0% vs 2.2% for developed countries on average),
and Spanish large caps usually benefit from Latin American demand, we believe that profits
growth is underestimated at least for the next two years. The table below shows that a
significant portion of the IBEX index (Santander, BBVA and Telefonica account for 51% of the
index) is heavily exposed to Latin America in terms of sales. Even though demand from Latin
America is strengthening, profit forecasts do not take this stabilising factor into account, a
factor which played a major role during the recession and makes the country’s earnings
growth profile asymmetric relative to the rest of the Europe.

Spanish companies with sales exposure to Latin America of above 10%
                                                       Latin American exposure as a % of     Local exposure as a % of 2008 sales
                                                                              2008 sales
Repsol                                                                              42%                                   48%
BBVA                                                                                41%               35% (including Portugal)
Banco Santander                                                                     41%                                   27%
Prosegur Cia de Seguridad                                                           37%                                   49%
Endesa                                                                              37%               58% (including Portugal)
Sol Melia                                                                           33%                                   49%
Mapfre                                                                              33%                                   59%
Cie Automotive                                                                      32%                           68% (Europe)
Amper                                                                               32%                                   68%
Abengoa                                                                             25%                                   35%
Gas Natural                                                                         24%                                   63%
Sniace                                                                              20%                                   66%
Telefonica                                                                          20%                                   36%
Inypsa Informes                                                                     17%                                   64%
OHL                                                                                 15%                                   49%
Iberdrola                                                                           14%                                   46%
Promotora de Informationes                                                          14%                           86% (Europe)
Viscofan                                                                            13%                           58% (Europe)
Aguas de Barcelona                                                                  13%                                   83%
Faes Farma                                                                          10%               90% (including Portugal)
Indra Sistemas                                                                      10%                                   66%
Source: SG Cross Asset Research


Long-term earnings growth (%) – Spain more resilient to the downside
   60

   50

   40

   30

   20

   10

    0

  -10

  -20                                                         Europe           Spain

  -30

  -40
        90   91   92    93    94   95   96   97   98    99   00    01    02    03      04   05   06     07   08    09    10

Source: SG Cross Asset Research




4 May 2010                                                                                                                    11
Equity Prism




                                       Spain’s valuation discounts a very bleak environment
                                       While Latin America is growing faster than the rest of the world, Spain’s multiples are trading
                                       at a discount to the European average. While the Spanish debt situation is worrying, we also
                                       believe that Spanish companies’ high cash flow profiles and saving rates should help large
                                       caps in the case of a severe fiscal tightening policy.


                                       IBES P/E forecasts (x)
                                                                               2009                   2010e                  2011e            2012e
                                       Spain                                   11.0                    10.8                    9.5                 8.5
                                       Italy                                   15.0                    12.8                  10.0                  8.6
                                       Ireland                                     na                    na                  37.2              10.4
                                       European average                        17.0                    13.0                  10.6                  9.4
                                       Greece                                  10.2                     9.6                    7.6                 6.3
                                       Portugal                                12.7                    13.4                  11.4              10.0
                                       Source: SG Cross Asset Research




                                       Therefore, considering that the Spanish market is trading at a 29.8% discount to the European
                                       average (the bottom was 43% in 1992), we are tactically buyers of the IBEX.


P/E multiples discount Spain’s bleak environment                         Now valuation is close to the bottom seen back in 1992
 30                                                                         50%
                                               Europe        Spain
                                                                            40%         Historical Spanish P/E discount to
                                                                                        European average
 25                                                                         30%

                                                                            20%

 20                                                                         10%

                                                                             0%

 15                                                                        -10%

                                                                           -20%

 10                                                                        -30%                       -43%                     -29.8%
                                                                           -40%

  5                                                                        -50%
      90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10              90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Source: SG Cross Asset Research




12                                     4 May 2010
Equity Prism




IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Accor                SG is acting as financial advisor in its demerger project.
Accor                SG acted as financial advisor to Accor and Colony Capital on the valuation of Group Lucien Barriere.
ArcelorMittal        SG acted as joint bookrunner for the equity and convertible bond offerings of ArcelorMittal.
ArcelorMittal        SG acted as joint lead manager and joint bookrunner in the issue of unsecured bonds convertible into new shares and/or
                     exchangeable for existing shares of ArcelorMittal (OCEANE)
Barclays             SG acted as Co-manager of Barclays plc's bond issue.
Barclays             SG acted as co-manager in the Barclays senior bond issue.
Barclays             SG acted as co-manger in Barclays' senior high grade bond issue.
Daimler              SG acted as Joint bookrunner in the Daimler's senior bond issue (4.625% 02/09/14 EUR).
Kingfisher           SG acted as agent in the tender offer for Kingfisher's 4.125% Notes due 2012.
Santander            SG acted as joint bookrunner of Santander's covered bond issue (3.625% 06/04/17 EUR).
Santander            SG acted as joint bookrunner in the Santander's covered bond issue (3.875% 27/05/14 EUR).
Vallourec            SG advised the FSI in the increase of its stake in Vallourec

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SG and its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity of Accor, Daimler, Santander.
SG or its affiliates act as market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities of Accor, Daimler, Royal Dutch Shell, Santander, Volvo.
SG or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months from Accor, ArcelorMittal,
Barclays, Compass Group, Daimler, Fraport, Santander, Vallourec, Volvo.
SG or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months from Accor, ArcelorMittal, Barclays, Daimler,
Kingfisher, Santander.
SG or its affiliates managed or co-managed in the past 12 months a public offering of securities of ArcelorMittal, Barclays, Daimler, Santander.


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                                            4 May 2010                                                                                                                    13

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Spain is not greece

  • 1. 4 May 2010 Equity Strategy Weekly www.sgresearch.com Equity Prism Spain is not Greece: we are now tactically bullish 0 Top-down Spain is not the next to drop -2 We were surprised by the S&P rating downgrade on Spain DE Public deficit (% of GDP) -4 AU NL last week. While we share the point of view that the country EMU IT -6 BG needs to reduce its deficit, public debt is lower than its euro FR -8 area neighbours. We strongly believe that Spain is not the PT next domino in Southern Europe to fall, as its cyclical -10 -12 ES outlook is improving. While unemployment is high and the IR GR country needs fiscal tightening, productivity is improving on -14 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 the back of large job cuts, and competitiveness could Public debt (% of GDP) surprise those who remain sceptical. Strong correlation between equity and spreads Country allocation Buy the IBEX as fears appear excessive 12500 2.5 11500 3.0 Year-to-date the Spanish (-12.0%) stock market has been 10500 3.5 one of the worst performers along with the Greek (-16.2%) 9500 4.0 and Portuguese (-12.1%) indices. With a low valuation (20% 8500 4.5 discount to the Europe index on 2010e P/E and 29.8% on 7500 5.0 trailing data) and already weak earnings growth discounted for the coming years (for 2010e +1.5% vs 32.1% for 6500 5.5 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Europe), we believe short-term potential for disappointment IBEX (lhs) Spain 5yr CDS (log inverted) is now limited. We therefore suggest a tactical buy on the IBEX. 60 Sector allocation Spanish banks heavily 50 exposed to fast-growing Latin America 40 18m forward EPS growth (%) Greek, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banks are 30 vulnerable, but Greek banks are probably most at risk. While large Spanish banks are well capitalised and exposed to the 20 fast-growing Latin American region, Italian banks have high 10 exposure to the Continent. Overall, we believe that profit 0 growth expectations for Spanish companies overestimate 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 -10 the impact of the bleak debt environment but underestimate Spanish Banks European Banks potential growth from Latin America. Source: SG Cross Asset Research, Datastream Equity Strategy Equity Strategy Equity Technical Analysis Specialist sales Claudia Panseri Charlotte Lize Loic de Galzain Paul Jackson (33) 1 58 98 53 35 (33) 1 42 13 83 98 (33) 1 42 13 47 12 (44) 20 7762 5921 claudia.panseri@sgcib.com charlotte.lize@sgcib.com loic.de galzain@sgcib.com paul.jackson@sgcib.com Please see important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document Macro Commodities Forex Rates Equity Credit Derivatives
  • 2. Equity Prism Contents 3 Asset allocation by sector 0 4 Investment summary 1H 5 Spain is not Greece: we are now tactically bullish 2H 5 Why Spain has been underperforming Italy and Ireland… 3H 5 …while Spanish bonds have been more resilient? 4H 7 Spain’s economic situation not as bad as feared 5H 9 PIIGS market structure penalises market performance 6H 10 Consensus forecasts already discount the worst… 7H 11 …but fail to reflect potential benefits of Latin American exposure 8H 12 Spain’s valuation discounts a very bleak environment 9H Tables index Charts index 3 European recommended sector allocation 10H 4 Valuation closes at the 20y bottom 16H 9 Sector breakdown for PIIGS countries 1H 5 Why should Spain underperform Italy and Ireland? 17H 10 IMF gross domestic product expectations (%, constant prices) 12H 6 Spanish CDS spreads have been unaffected 18H 10 IBES EPS growth expectations (%) 13H 6 10y bond yield spread to German yield 19H 11 Spanish companies with sales exposure to Latin America of above 10% 14H 7 Greek consumers likely to be hard hit by fiscal tightening 20H 12 IBES P/E forecasts (x) 15H 7 Greece has the highest public debt, but Ireland and Spain show the 21H steepest deterioration 8 Harmonised competitiveness indicators (ULC-deflated) 2H 8 France’s public debt is higher than Spain’s! 23H 9 IBEX 35 – lack of pharma, tech and consumer goods 24H 9 Banks are penalised by contagion fears 25H 10 While EPS growth is largely below the European average… 26H 10 …sales growth is slightly above 27H 11 Long-term earnings growth (%) – Spain more resilient to the downside 28H 12 P/E multiples discount Spain’s bleak environment 29H 12 Now valuation is close to the bottom seen back in 1992 30H 2 4 May 2010
  • 3. Equity Prism Asset allocation by sector European recommended sector allocation MSCI Last Changes New SG Premium List % recommendation today recommendation Oil & Gas 10.9 OVERWEIGHT Integrated Oil Companies 10.1 Overweight Royal Dutch Shell Oil Services 0.8 Neutral Basic Industries 9.7 OVERWEIGHT Chemicals 3.0 Overweight BASF Construction Materials 0.9 Overweight Containers & Packaging 0.0 Neutral Steel, Metals & Mining 5.4 Neutral ArcelorMittal Paper, Packaging 0.3 Overweight Industrials 10.0 OVERWEIGHT Aerospace & Defence 0.9 Neutral Construction 1.5 Overweight Saint Gobain Capital Goods 5.4 Overweight Vallourec, Volvo Transportation & Other services 2.1 Overweight Fraport Consumer Discretionary 7.4 OVERWEIGHT Automobiles & Components 1.8 Overweight Daimler Durables, Apparel & Luxury 1.5 Neutral Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 0.8 Overweight Accor, Compass Group Media 1.9 Overweight Reed Elevier Plc Retailing (general) 1.2 Neutral Kingfisher Consumer Staples 12.0 NEUTRAL Food & Staples Retailing 2.1 Overweight Beverages 2.3 Neutral Food 4.8 Underweight Tobacco 1.5 Underweight Household & Personal Care 1.1 Neutral Healthcare (includes Pharma) 10.1 UNDERWEIGHT Fresenius Medical Care Financials 23.7 NEUTRAL Commercials Banks 13.3 Neutral Investment Banks 4.2 Neutral Barclays Insurance 5.1 Overweight ING, Swiss Life Real Estate 0.9 Neutral Information Technology 2.9 OVERWEIGHT Software & IT Services 1.0 Overweight SAP Technology Hardware & Eqpt. 1.5 Neutral Semi-conductors 0.4 Overweight Telecommunication Services 6.7 UNDERWEIGHT Diversified Telecom 4.7 Underweight Wireless Telecom 1.9 Underweight Utilities 6.0 NEUTRAL Source: SG Cross Asset Research 4 May 2010 3
  • 4. Equity Prism Investment summary Spanish fixed income more resilient than equities The widening gap between euro area and US growth coupled with concerns about a potential eurozone break-up should continue to exert pressure on the euro area. That said, notwithstanding rising pessimism on the eurozone, we strongly believe that some countries in the region remain attractively valued (we are already Overweight on Germany). While the risk of fiscal tightening looks extremely high in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIIGS), we believe that after its recent underperformance, the Spanish index is attractively valued and is set to outperform other PIIGS in the short term. The relative resiliency of the Spanish bond market (both corporate and government bonds) also points to a probable over-reaction from equities investors compared with fixed income investors. Spain’s economic situation not as bad as feared Spain is in a difficult public deficit position (-11% versus the GDP), which is deteriorating quickly. While we do not want to minimise the situation as unemployment is very high (19.4%) and restructuring will take time, Spain has already undergone 18 months of painful economic adjustment. The near-term outlook for the economy is admittedly bleak. Economic activity will likely stagnate this year, as fiscal policy tightens. But beyond 2010, the country should at least match the eurozone’s average growth rate (IMF 2012 GDP forecasts: 1.5% vs 1.8% for the euro area). Initial signs are encouraging as labour market adjustments have helped to boost labour productivity and cut unit labour costs, restoring some of the competitiveness that had been lost. More needs to be done, but this is a positive development . 0F0F 1 Spanish profit growth discounts sovereign risk but not Latin American demand According to IBES forecasts, Spanish 2010-2012e profits growth is the lowest within the euro area and stands even below that expected in Greece. We strongly believe that consensus forecasts are overestimating the impact of debt on the Spanish financial system (financial stocks represent 32.8% of the IBEX’s market cap) and underestimating potential growth from Latin America. While Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banks are vulnerable, Greek banks are probably most at risk. And while large Spanish banks are well capitalised and exposed to the fast-growing Latin American region, Italian banks have high exposure to the Continent, with loan coverage well below the mean. We are tactically bullish on Spain While Latin America is growing faster than the rest of the world, Spain’s multiples are trading at a discount to the European average. Spain’s debt situation is worrying indeed; but Valuation closes at the 20y bottom we also believe that Spanish companies’ high 50% 40% Historical Spanish P/E discount to cash flow profiles and savings rates should 30% European average help large caps in the event of a severe fiscal 20% 10% tightening policy. Therefore, with the Spanish 0% -10% market trading at a 29.8% discount to the -20% -43% -29.8% European average (the bottom was 43% in -30% -40% 1992), we are tactically buyers of the IBEX. -50% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: SG Cross Asset Research 1 For more details please refer to page 69 of SG Global Economic Outlook dated 13 April 2010 “Reshuffling balances” and to the SG Economics report dated 22 April 2010 “No time for a Greek holiday” 4 4 May 2010
  • 5. Equity Prism Spain is not Greece: we are now tactically bullish Since the beginning of the year, alpha generation has mainly come from country allocation more than sector allocation. In our latest calls “Want to hedge euro sovereign 31H risk? Buy the DAX, stay Neutral on Banks” (13 April) and “Buy UK stocks on devaluation 32H fears” (20 April), we suggested taking advantage of rising fears about European sovereign risk by building strategic positions (long-term) on the weakness of the euro or the sterling versus the dollar. Today’s call is a tactical one and the rationale behind it is based on our premise that last week’s market reaction on Spain is excessive. Sovereign risk remains the main concern for equity markets, especially after S&P slashed Greece’s credit rating by 3 notches to BB+ with a negative outlook, Portugal’s long-term debt by 2 notches to A- and Spain’s to AA with a negative outlook. However, we believe that this environment offers some good buying opportunities, and Spain offers one of the best in our view. Why Spain has been underperforming Italy and Ireland… Why should Spanish equity markets underperform Italy and Ireland when both of the latter have similar debt profiles and less resilient banking systems? Since the beginning of the year the IBEX has strongly underperformed the DAX, which is perfectly rational considering the difference in those countries’ debt, deficits and market structures. What seems odd is that while sovereign risk is also worrying for Ireland and Italy, these two countries are performing better than the Spanish stock market. Why should Spain underperform Italy and Ireland? 115 ASE (Greece) IBEX (Spain) 110 MIB (Italy) PSI20 (Portugal) 105 ISEQ (Ireland) 100 95 90 85 80 75 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Source: SG Cross Asset Research …while Spanish bonds have been more resilient? Spanish fixed income assets and corporate and government bonds have been more resilient than Portugal’s and as resilient as Italy’s. As explained by our economists in their report “No 3H time for a Greek holiday” published on April 22, while Ireland, Portugal and Spain face very different situations relative to Greece, their level of deficits and debt put them under pressure. Any threat of a potential default by Greece would immediately raise concerns over the sustainability of fiscal deficits in Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Concerns over Italy are more subdued. Despite a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 115%, Italy has maintained a fairly tight grip on 4 May 2010 5
  • 6. Equity Prism its finances throughout the crisis, and as a result, its deficit reached only 5.3% in 2009. The underlying position of Italy’s public finances therefore looks under control. Only a modest effort will be necessary to stop the debt ratio from increasing again. While Spain has seen the steepest deterioration in the last year, it is protected by its history of managing sound fiscal policies pre-crisis and also by its size relative to its two European neighbours. This gives Spain a broader tax base and more diversified economy, which should make it easier to increase tax revenues if the need arises. Spanish CDS spreads have been unaffected 1400 1200 Portugal 1000 Greece 800 Spain 600 Italy Ireland 400 200 0 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Source: SG Cross Asset Research Also, the spread between Spain and Germany’s 10-year bond yields has increased, but has been more resilient than in the case of Portugal and Ireland and in line with the Italian spread. 10y bond yield spread to German yield 800 Spanish spread Greek spread Italian spread 700 Irish spread Portuguese spread 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Source: SG Cross Asset Research 6 4 May 2010
  • 7. Equity Prism Spain’s economic situation not as bad as feared We have already written more than once that the debt situation in the eurozone looks increasingly worrisome and that the widening gap between euro area and US growth coupled with concerns about a potential eurozone break-up should continue to exert pressure on the euro. That said, notwithstanding rising pessimism on the eurozone, we strongly believe that the region remains attractively valued – some countries more than others, and tactical calls may help to generate profits. The Greek risk/reward profile looks less appealing as stringent fiscal policy will be required to reduce the debt burden. Of course the risk of fiscal tightening looks extremely high in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, but high saving rates in Spain and improving productivity may be a cushion for the country. Greek consumers likely to be hard hit by fiscal tightening 30.0 Euro area 25.0 France 20.0 Italy Germany 15.0 UK 10.0 Portugal Spain 5.0 Greece 0.0 Ireland 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: SG Cross Asset Research Spain is in a difficult position, and the situation is deteriorating quickly. While we do not want to minimise the situation as unemployment is very high and restructuring will take time, Spain has already undergone 18 months of painful economic adjustment. The current account deficit in relation to GDP has more than halved to 4.6% from its peak in 2008, when in absolute terms it was the second highest in the world after the US. Greece has the highest public debt, but Ireland and Spain show the steepest deterioration 30% 140.0 2009 2010e 2011e 2009/2010 changes (%) Public Debt (% of GDP) 120.0 25% 100.0 20% 80.0 15% 60.0 10% 40.0 5% 20.0 0% 0.0 Ireland Spain UK Portugal France Greece Eurozone Germany Italy Source: SG Cross Asset Research 4 May 2010 7
  • 8. Equity Prism The near-term outlook for the economy is admittedly bleak. Economic activity will likely stagnate this year, as fiscal policy tightens. And the economy is unlikely to regain its status as the fastest growing of the big four EC members anytime soon, as the country grapples with its structural problems. But beyond 2010, Spain’s growth should at least match the eurozone average growth rate. Initial signs are encouraging as labour market adjustments have helped to boost labour productivity and cut unit labour costs, consequently restoring some of the competitiveness that had been lost. More needs to be done, but this is a positive development that should be recognised. In addition, the current account deficit has effectively been cut in half, from 10% of GDP at the peak. This was not just the result of weak imports, but also of an above-average export recovery. The Spanish economy appears to be re-orientating itself towards exports. Lastly, although not yet complete, the excessive share of construction in the economy has shrunk. Harmonised competitiveness indicators (ULC-deflated) 120 Spain 115 110 Italy 105 France 100 95 Germany 90 85 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: ECB, SG Cross Asset Research The budget shortfall is beginning to roll over, a reduction plan is in place and the public debt- to-GDP ratio is 60%, barely more than half the Greek ratio. Most importantly, the inflation rate has converged with the eurozone average, one of many indicators confirming the decade-long adjustment to membership of the currency club is complete. France’s public debt is higher than Spain’s! 0 -2 DE -4 AU Public deficit (% of GDP) NL EMU IT -6 BG FR -8 PT -10 ES -12 IR GR -14 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Public debt (% of GDP) Source: SG Cross Asset Research, SG Global Economic Research 8 4 May 2010
  • 9. Equity Prism PIIGS market structure penalises market performance What has particularly penalised the IBEX relative to other PIIGS markets is its market structure. For example, relative to the Irish Index (ISEQ), which accounts for 38.8% of industrials benefiting from the weakness of the euro, the IBEX is mainly based on banks and telecoms, which have been the main underperformers of this first part of the year. Relative to the Italian Index, the IBEX has been underperforming because it has less exposure to the Oil & Gas sector, usually resilient in a negative market. Sector breakdown for PIIGS countries PSI 20 MIB 40 ISEQ Athex 20 IBEX 35 DJ Stoxx 50 Basic Materials 4.2% 5% 2.0% 1.1% 10.8% 8.0% Consumer Goods 0.0% 8.6% 18.2% 14.7% 0.5% 14.0% Consumer Services 13.1% 3.2% 17.7% 10.8% 7.3% 2.6% Financials 15.2% 33.5% 9.0% 47.1% 32.8% 28.9% Health Care 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.4% 3.6% Industrials 13.2% 6.7% 38.8% 5.7% 8.7% 7.9% Oil & Gas 16.3% 21.6% 5.7% 6.9% 5.0% 9.8% Technology 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 4.4% Telecommunications 12.7% 3.8% 0.1% 8.2% 16.1% 9.4% Utilities 25.3% 16.1% 0.0% 5.5% 17.9% 11.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100% 100% 100% Source: SG Cross Asset Research, Datastream As previously mentioned, both the Spanish and the Italian indices are mainly composed of financials stocks. The difference between the two banking systems is that while large Spanish banks have their difficulties, they are well capitalised and their assets are heavily tilted towards the fast-growing Latin American region. In contrast, Italian banks have high exposure to the Continent. IBEX 35 – lack of pharma, tech and consumer goods Banks are penalised by contagion fears 40.0% 3000 100 30.0% 2800 120 IBEX 35 DJ Stoxx 50 2600 140 20.0% 160 2400 10.0% 180 2200 0.0% 200 Consumer Goods Telecommunications Consumer Services Technology Oil& Gas Basic Materials Industrials Financials Utilities Health Care 2000 220 1800 Greece stock index (lhs) European Financials credit spread (inverted rhs) 240 1600 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Source: SG Cross Asset Research 4 May 2010 9
  • 10. Equity Prism Consensus forecasts already discount the worst… The IBES figures highlight something which appears particularly odd: why are Greek companies expected to grow more than Spanish companies over the next three years? According to the IMF’s GDP growth forecasts, Greece should remain in recession for the next two years, while Spain, after this year’s negative economic growth, should enjoy a recovery in 2011. Does this mean that analysts are underestimating the potential for a rebound? IMF gross domestic product expectations (%, constant prices) 2008 2009 2010e 2011e Greece 2.02 -1.96 -2.00 -1.05 Ireland -3.04 -7.10 -1.55 1.94 Italy -1.32 -5.04 0.84 1.16 Portugal 0.04 -2.68 0.29 0.65 Spain 0.86 -3.64 -0.41 0.90 Source: SG Cross Asset Research, International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010 IBES EPS growth expectations (%) 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e Spain -10.0 1.5 13.6 11.6 Italy -41.3 17.4 28.2 15.8 Ireland -152.1 na na 256.1 European average -23.1 32.1 22.1 12.8 Greece -41.8 6.1 27.6 19.4 Portugal 10.5 -5.0 17.7 14.0 Source: SG Cross Asset Research Even though bottom-line forecasts are far below the European average, top-line forecasts are slightly above the European market. The problem is that Spanish operating leverage is low, consistent with a structure based on Utilities and Telecoms, which have a high proportion of fixed to flexible costs and therefore more capital intensity than the European average. While EPS growth is largely below the European average… …sales growth is slightly above 35 12 12m forward Sales growth (%) 12m forward EPS growth (%) 30 10 25 8 Spain Europe 20 6 15 4 10 2 5 0 0 -2 Spain Europe -5 -4 -10 -6 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: SG Cross Asset Research 10 4 May 2010
  • 11. Equity Prism …but fail to reflect potential benefits of Latin American exposure While we are negative on Spanish growth, we believe that upside could potentially be stronger for Spanish companies than for Greek or Portuguese companies, as Spain’s profit growth is driven by Latin American demand. As Latin America is expected to grow more than developed countries (SG 2010e forecasts: real GDP 4.0% vs 2.2% for developed countries on average), and Spanish large caps usually benefit from Latin American demand, we believe that profits growth is underestimated at least for the next two years. The table below shows that a significant portion of the IBEX index (Santander, BBVA and Telefonica account for 51% of the index) is heavily exposed to Latin America in terms of sales. Even though demand from Latin America is strengthening, profit forecasts do not take this stabilising factor into account, a factor which played a major role during the recession and makes the country’s earnings growth profile asymmetric relative to the rest of the Europe. Spanish companies with sales exposure to Latin America of above 10% Latin American exposure as a % of Local exposure as a % of 2008 sales 2008 sales Repsol 42% 48% BBVA 41% 35% (including Portugal) Banco Santander 41% 27% Prosegur Cia de Seguridad 37% 49% Endesa 37% 58% (including Portugal) Sol Melia 33% 49% Mapfre 33% 59% Cie Automotive 32% 68% (Europe) Amper 32% 68% Abengoa 25% 35% Gas Natural 24% 63% Sniace 20% 66% Telefonica 20% 36% Inypsa Informes 17% 64% OHL 15% 49% Iberdrola 14% 46% Promotora de Informationes 14% 86% (Europe) Viscofan 13% 58% (Europe) Aguas de Barcelona 13% 83% Faes Farma 10% 90% (including Portugal) Indra Sistemas 10% 66% Source: SG Cross Asset Research Long-term earnings growth (%) – Spain more resilient to the downside 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Europe Spain -30 -40 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: SG Cross Asset Research 4 May 2010 11
  • 12. Equity Prism Spain’s valuation discounts a very bleak environment While Latin America is growing faster than the rest of the world, Spain’s multiples are trading at a discount to the European average. While the Spanish debt situation is worrying, we also believe that Spanish companies’ high cash flow profiles and saving rates should help large caps in the case of a severe fiscal tightening policy. IBES P/E forecasts (x) 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e Spain 11.0 10.8 9.5 8.5 Italy 15.0 12.8 10.0 8.6 Ireland na na 37.2 10.4 European average 17.0 13.0 10.6 9.4 Greece 10.2 9.6 7.6 6.3 Portugal 12.7 13.4 11.4 10.0 Source: SG Cross Asset Research Therefore, considering that the Spanish market is trading at a 29.8% discount to the European average (the bottom was 43% in 1992), we are tactically buyers of the IBEX. P/E multiples discount Spain’s bleak environment Now valuation is close to the bottom seen back in 1992 30 50% Europe Spain 40% Historical Spanish P/E discount to European average 25 30% 20% 20 10% 0% 15 -10% -20% 10 -30% -43% -29.8% -40% 5 -50% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: SG Cross Asset Research 12 4 May 2010
  • 13. Equity Prism IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Accor SG is acting as financial advisor in its demerger project. Accor SG acted as financial advisor to Accor and Colony Capital on the valuation of Group Lucien Barriere. ArcelorMittal SG acted as joint bookrunner for the equity and convertible bond offerings of ArcelorMittal. ArcelorMittal SG acted as joint lead manager and joint bookrunner in the issue of unsecured bonds convertible into new shares and/or exchangeable for existing shares of ArcelorMittal (OCEANE) Barclays SG acted as Co-manager of Barclays plc's bond issue. Barclays SG acted as co-manager in the Barclays senior bond issue. Barclays SG acted as co-manger in Barclays' senior high grade bond issue. Daimler SG acted as Joint bookrunner in the Daimler's senior bond issue (4.625% 02/09/14 EUR). Kingfisher SG acted as agent in the tender offer for Kingfisher's 4.125% Notes due 2012. Santander SG acted as joint bookrunner of Santander's covered bond issue (3.625% 06/04/17 EUR). Santander SG acted as joint bookrunner in the Santander's covered bond issue (3.875% 27/05/14 EUR). Vallourec SG advised the FSI in the increase of its stake in Vallourec US THIRD PARTY FOREIGN AFFILIATE RESEARCH DISCLOSURES: SG and its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity of Accor, Daimler, Santander. SG or its affiliates act as market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities of Accor, Daimler, Royal Dutch Shell, Santander, Volvo. SG or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months from Accor, ArcelorMittal, Barclays, Compass Group, Daimler, Fraport, Santander, Vallourec, Volvo. SG or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months from Accor, ArcelorMittal, Barclays, Daimler, Kingfisher, Santander. SG or its affiliates managed or co-managed in the past 12 months a public offering of securities of ArcelorMittal, Barclays, Daimler, Santander. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information herein is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any securities and including any expression of opinion, has been obtained from or is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness although Société Générale (“SG”) believe it to be clear, fair and not misleading. SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, may from time to time deal in, profit from the trading of, hold or act as market-makers or act as advisers, brokers or bankers in relation to the securities, or derivatives thereof, of persons, firms or entities mentioned in this document or be represented on the board of such persons, firms or entities. SG is acting as a principal trader in debt securities that may be refered to in this report and may hold debt securities positions. Employees of SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, or individuals connected to then, other than the authors of this report, may from time to time have a position in or be holding any of the investments or related investments mentioned in this document. Each author of this report is not permitted to trade in or hold any of the investments or related investments which are the subject of this document. SG and their affiliated companies in the SG Group are under no obligation to disclose or take account of this document when advising or dealing with or for their customers. The views of SG reflected in this document may change without notice. To the maximum extent possible at law, SG does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein. 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