1. 1
Evaluate How Climate Change Impacts upon
Patterns of Global Tourism
Josh Brunsdon, Joe Crompton, Maddie Paget and Kyran Schneider
Climate has a strong influence over tourism and in the most popular destinations, it represents their
primary asset. Tourisms contribution to Climate Change often sparks considerable research and topic
debate and this is of no surprise given the fact it contributes between 4-10% of global carbon dioxide
emissions (Peeters 2007). Tourism may impact on Climate Change but perhaps more interestingly, is the
effect Climate Change will soon have on future tourism. Climate Change will manifest its impacts in
various ways and in numerous locations across the globe. Understanding the varying consequences of
Climate Change on tourism patterns however, is perhaps the biggest challenge for the factions within the
industry, looking forward.
(United Nations 2015)

2. 2
Table of Contents:
1.0 Introduction – Page 3
2.0 Assignment Rationale and – Page 4
3.0 Summary of Methods – Page 4
4.1 Key Questions
4.2 In what ways will Climate Change cause the appeal of some destinations to
increase, decrease or be removed all together? – Page 5-6
4.2.1 How will rising sea levels impact on the appeal of tourism destinations
and in particular the Maldives? – Pages 6-7
4.2.2 To what extent will rising temperatures cause the attraction of some
European destinations to improve or decline? – Pages 7-8
4.2.3 How will the increased frequency of extreme weather events affect
Caribbean tourism? – Page 9
4.3 Will attitudes towards Climate Change affect the holiday decision making
processes? Pages 10-11
4.3.1 How will Climate Change impact the decision making processes involved
in holiday planning? Page 11
4.3.2 Will the nature and conceptual framework of tourism be impacted by
Climate Change? Page 12
4.3.3 Is there a future for ‘Eco-Tourism’? Page 12
4.4 How will Climate Change affect the availability, nature and safety of future
transport? Does this impact upon tourism patterns? Pages 13-14
4.4.1 How will tourist perspectives on transport and travel change as a result
of Climate Change? Page 14
4.4.2 What is the future of the aviation Industry within tourism? Pages 14- 15
4.4.3 How will transport adapt to changing weather conditions caused by
Climate Change? Page 15.
4.5 Have changes in international climate policy impacted patterns of global tourism
and how could future Governmental Organisation (GO) and Non-Governmental
Organisational (NGO) intervention cause further change? Pages 17-18
4.5.1 Have any international conferences been able to increase Climate
Change awareness within the tourism industry? Page 18
4.5.2 What has been the effect of new legislation and regulations within
aviation on tourism patterns? Page 19
4.5.3 Is GO or NGO involvement likely to have any impact on tourism
patterns? Page 20
5.0 Conclusion and Executive Summary Page 21

3. 3
1.1 Introduction
Tourism is a multi-billion dollar, highly competitive and dynamic industry. Success within this
growing industry requires a level of adaptability in order to allow the various factions within, to
cope with the changing needs and requirements of customers.
Popular tourist destinations however, often have to adapt less because they have both natural
and human features as well as cultural or historical value to attract visitors. Nevertheless, the
most sought after, economically successful destinations, owe their appeal for the most part, to
climate; and in particular, favourable weather conditions during the traditional holiday periods.
Consequently, it is possible; that in the future, Climate Change may alter seasonal tourism by
improving or worsening climatic conditions at destinations, on a global scale (Amelung et al
2007).
Patterns in tourism are driven by the individual needs and circumstance of each (and every)
tourist. Therefore, it needs to be understood, that if one particular location becomes unsuitable
as a result of climatic change, the choices made by tourists are; either not travel or to try
elsewhere. This scenario is a prime example of how a changing climate is impacting patterns of
global tourism and why climate will become the driving force behind future patterns of tourism.
‘Global Warming’, as it is alternatively known, has the potential to have huge implications for
both current and future tourism markets; with more serious impacts expected as Climate
Change gathers pace. The focus of this report is to evaluate the potential impacts of Climate
Change on Global tourism. This will include possible changes to destination choice and will
cover the following key questions:
• Will attitudes towards Climate Change affect the way people travel in the future?
• In what ways will Climate Change cause the appeal of destinations to increase,
decrease or be removed all together?
• How will Climate Change affect the availability, nature and safety of future
transport? Does this impact upon tourism patterns?
• Have changes in international climate policy impacted patterns of global tourism
and how could future Governmental Organisation and Non-Governmental
Organisational intervention cause further change?

4. 4
2.0 Assignment Rationale
At the start of this report, it was decided that although a great deal of research and
literature had been undertaken on Climate Change and tourism, many previous reports
had focused on smaller aspects within this topic; such as decision making and the future of
aviation. Group discussion led to a joint decision to produce a report which would try to
incorporate as much as possible and give a more general overview on the effects of Climate
Change on tourism and in particular, patterns of global tourism.
The topic question was chosen unanimously by the group due to its open-ended nature
and because of its very real existence in modern day society. Indeed, every member of the
group was able to relate more to this topic than any of the others available. The question
although considered challenging at the beginning, proved to spark the most topic interest
within the group, hence the decision to investigate into it further.
3.0 Methodology
A mix methods strategy has been adopted for this study in which there were several initial
stages of data collection, analysis and investigation. This data, once collected was
discussed further and collated during a selection of group meetings. Action plans were
used throughout the process to assign group members certain research tasks which were
given deadlines to ensure a smooth, cohesive flow to the construction of this report.
Initial research was done individually in order to obtain a fast, but comprehensive
summary of the topic question. Latterly, more in-depth research took place finding more
concise, accurate information from a wide variety of sources which included; peer-
reviewed journals, books, news articles and government reports.
Once all the source-based materials had been collected, each member on the group began
to write up their own individually assign sections. Drafts were initially formulated and
shared between other members of the group so that proof-reading and edits could be
applied if necessary. The report was later formatted and written fully, once all edits had
been made.

5. 5
•
In what ways will Climate
Change cause the appeal
of some destinations to
increase, decrease or be
removed all together?
(KNF Travel 2013)

6. 6
4.1 In what ways will Climate Change cause the appeal of destinations to increase, decrease or be
removed all together?
Many different destinations that offer diverse selections of tourist activities rely on climate to draw
in visitors and remain economically sustainable. Climate Change has the potential to cause a
number of locations to become more or less favourable depending on the nature of changes. The
result could mean severe implications for global patterns of tourism.
’Tourist industries depend on the quality of environmental assets such as beaches, landscapes,
climate and water; these which can be all affected by the potential impacts of Climate Change’
(Holden, 2009; Bicknell and McManus 2006; Scott et al, 2006; Pickering 2011). Climate Change poses
a risk to a variety of destinations because of the numerous potential impacts it could have on
primary assets. In spite of this, some destinations may well benefit from climate change, where
weather conditions become more favourable and attract new visitors.
There are vast selections of tourism hot spots which are dependent on climate however; some may
not be able to rely on adaptation alone, to survive as popular, sustainable destinations. Climate
Change promises to manifest impacts in many ways through; temperature change, rising sea levels
and the increased frequency of extreme weather events.
4.1.1 How will rising sea Levels impact on the appeal of tourism destinations and in particular the
Maldives?
Rising sea levels, one of the most potentially catastrophic features of Climate Change promises to
affect the tourism value of a considerable amount of low lying, island destinations. One popular
tourist region, the Maldives, is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. Predictions have shown that
a 0.49 meter rise scenario would result in a sizeable proportion of the Islands land mass including
the 15% of Islands capital city, Malé, being submerged by 2100 (Gagain 2012). Currently, the
majority of the 74 island hotels which typify the region, are situated at elevations lower than 1.5m
above sea level (ASL) and are at huge risk from rising sea levels (Viner and Agnew 1999). These
hotels with the white sandy beaches and vast coral formations which spread throughout the region
are the main pull factors of the region and why over one million tourists visited in 2012 (Welton
2012). However, primarily through rising sea levels and flooding, visitor numbers are expected to
decline sharply. The increased frequency of island over wash, the dangers of salt water intrusion
and coral bleaching may lead to some islands becoming both uninhabitable and undesirable in the
future (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999). The Maldives provide just one example however; there are many
other areas where sea level rise will damage tourism destinations. Coastal areas across the globe
may suffer from increased flooding and erosion whereas many island destinations such as the
Caribbean (and Maldives) are at risk from complete submergence (Bosello et al 2004).
Historical cities too, such as Venice, Italy and Amsterdam, Netherlands, are also expected to be
completely inundated following sea level rise and may prompt a decline in low altitude tourism,
especially in regions susceptible to flooding and coastal over wash (Figure 1). Nevertheless, such
sites may benefit in the short term from ‘Doom Tourism’ where tourists strive desperately no
matter what the cost to see destinations before they are destroyed as a result of Climate Change
(Hindley 2012).

7. 7
Figure 1: Map showing Venice and
the extent of sea level rise following a
one meter rise (Tingle 2013).
Figure 2: Visitor numbers of UK winter tourists
2007-2014 (Crystal Ski 2014).
4.1.2 To what extent will rising temperatures cause the attraction of some European
destinations to improve or decline?
Temperature rise is another aspect of Climate Change which is likely to cause the appeal of some
destinations to vary. However, in contrast to sea level rise, rising temperatures has the potential
to have both positive and negative impacts depending on location and current climate. One
obvious negative impact of temperature rise has already featured heavily in fragile mountain
environments such as the Alps and Pyrenees. These regions are classed as having temperate
climates however, due to their high altitudes; they are cold enough in winter months to support
snowfall and glaciation. These two mountain ranges in particular, are popular with snow seeking,
winter sports enthusiasts (Gobiet et al 2014). Skiing and Snowboarding are heavily dependent on
snow cover however, up until recently, the reliability of adequate snowfall has decreased, with
sufficient snow and visibility not always guaranteed. This is especially common at low-lying
resorts below 1400 meters. Since the 1980s, average minimum winter temperature in the Alps
has risen by 2 Degrees Celsius (Beniston 2005; Bogataj 2007). Given the fragile nature of the
mountain environment, this seemingly small rise in temperature has been sufficient to cause a
50% decline in glacial volume whilst increasing the altitude of the average snow line steadily,
from its previous low point in 1983 (Uhlmann et al 2008). These impacts coinciding with an
increasingly unreliable snow cover have reduced the appeal of these destinations. This is
especially true of UK tourists who in 2007/08 contributed 1.2 million ‘ski tourists’ (Crystal Ski
2014). UK tourists, unlike their French or Swiss counterparts for example, do not have the same
luxury of short-term decision tourism. British tourists will typically book winter holidays months
in advance and usually during seasonal holidays such as Christmas and Easter. Climate change
though, is shortening ski seasons and making these two times of the year, less popular given
their positions in the calendar (Ski season typically runs between December and April).The
irregular nature of temperature and precipitation in these regions could cause further declines in
winter tourism; stemming from a reduction in international tourist visits (Figure 2) (Unbehaun et
al 2008).

8. 8
Similarly, in central and southern parts of the Mediterranean, rising temperatures have the
potential to drastically reduce the appeal of some popular tourist hubs. Climate Change is
expected to increase mean summer temperatures by as much as 4 Degrees Celsius throughout
Europe (Chaouche 2010). This rise in mean temperature will, in traditionally warmer areas of the
Mediterranean, where maximum temperatures can exceed 40 Degrees Celsius in summer, push
temperature levels beyond threshold levels of human comfort. Moreover, longer periods of high
pressure with more extreme warm days could make the environment too warm for inbound
tourists, many of whom come from milder climates in Northern Europe. The consequences are
likely to be severe, and could cause; heat stress, water supply restrictions, forest fires, and urban
smog (Viner 1999). Tourists may opt to travel out of the typical summer seasons to avoid these
however, the possibility of desertification in southern and central Spain could suggest that in the
long-term; these areas may become uninhabitable (Martínez-Fernández 2005).
In contrast, the previously milder climates of Northern Europe, Canada and Russia have been
predicted to become warmer and more favourable during summer months according to the
Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) (Roson and Sartori 2012). Although the potential implications of
Climate Change on Northern Europe are perhaps less well documented compared with the rest
of Europe, the general theory is that summers will become drier and warmer. Winters on the
other hand, will also become warmer but will receive significantly more amounts of precipitation
as well as extreme, more varied weather. The TCI has shown that whilst climate in Northern
Europe will become more favourable in the summer season, it will be at the expense of Central
and Southern Europe. A study by Peseta (2009) concluded that in a 4 Degrees Celsius rise
scenario, the average number of bed nights (visitor nights) would increase in all areas of Europe
other than Southern Europe. It is worth noting that Southern Europe which includes; the Spanish
Riviera, Southern Italy and Greece already accounts for over 50% of the total EU capacity of
tourist accommodation (Ciscar 2009). The potential implications for tourism patterns in the
Europe and the Mediterranean resulting from rising temperatures are huge. European tourism
accounts for 58% of worldwide tourism and therefore any changes caused by Climate Change will
almost certainly be on a global scale. The changing appeal of some destinations will have knock-
on effects on tourism flows, transport infrastructure and could also start a decline in seasonal
tourism which has dictated tourism patterns almost exclusively to date.
4.1.3 How will the increased frequency of extreme weather events affect Caribbean tourism?
Extreme weather events are also becoming increasingly associated with climate change with
both increased frequency and scale often being put down to global warming. There has been a
general agreement that changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely
to have profound effects on the tourism industry. There are likely to be impacts on both the
human and natural features of some destinations and in particular, the regions which already
experience some instances of extreme weather.

9. 9
The implications surrounding extreme weather events raise questions over tourist
perceptions and preferences. These are often the foundations of destination choice with
climate characteristics ranking very high (Hu and Richie 1993; Lohmann and Kaim 1999).
Many of the most popular tourism regions such as the Mediterranean and the Caribbean
often have very stable, seasonal climates which have become their primary assets. However,
climate change has been shown to bring about more varied and extreme conditions which
have the potential to compromise the primary advantage of a number of tourist destinations
and not just the Caribbean.
More varied and extreme weather will come in many forms however, most likely to impact
on tourism and especially summer tourism, will be the increase (or decrease) in;
temperature, precipitation and storm events. Since the 1970s, global temperatures have
risen by 0.7 Degrees Celsius and as a result, there has been an increase of 4% in the moisture
content of the atmosphere. The extra moisture allows not only for more rain, but also for
more high intensity storms; hurricanes, tornados and cyclones. These stronger tropical
storms although expected to become more frequent, are not likely to become more
intensive as no significant long term trend over the 20th century has been able to prove or
disprove this (Jackson 2002). Despite this, the projected increase in frequency, the future
landfall projections (Figure 3)and the media portrayal that these ‘disasters’ receive has
already begun to detract from destination image for a number of popular regions. The reality
again comes down to the fact that tourists want reliable weather conditions. Being caught
up in a potentially dangerous tropical storm is not something tourists want to risk when
planning holidays. This is particularly worrying for the Caribbean where travel and tourism
accounts for almost 70% of GDP where it contributed $81 Billion in 2014. Hurricane Ivan in
2004 for example, caused a 20% decline in visitor numbers as tourists became more aware
and chose alternative destinations (Granvorka and Strobl 2014). This has made the role of
some Destination Marketing Organisations (DMO’s) almost impossible where climate change
has begun to inhibit the use of marketing as a means of attracting visitors in some locations
(Dodds 2010).
Figure 3: Modelled future category 4 and 5
Hurricane tracks showing increased frequency and
increased landfall predictions (Bender et al 2010).

10. 10
Will attitudes towards climate
change affect how and where
people travel in the future?
(Bear Mountain 2014)

11. 11
4.2 Will attitudes towards climate change affect the holiday decision making processes of
tourists?
Tourist’s growing awareness of the social and environmental issues, brought about by climate
change is leading to conflict between conscience and the desire to travel. The changing views
on climate change could cause the face of tourism to transform should holiday decisions
become more environmentally conscious. Approximately 75% of UK residents in an opinion
poll survey conducted by the British Government (2010) said that were aware of climate
change and concerned about how their actions were contributing to it. However, at what
point do these concerns manifest into changes and in particular, changes targeted at tourism
and transport.
4.2.1 How will climate change impact the decision making processes involved in holiday
planning?
Climate change could have the potential to impact the decision making processes of
holidaymakers involved in holiday planning. A tourist’s choice of destination is often based on
their expectations; whether it from previous personal experience, reviews, or the experiences
of friends and relatives. There are a number of attributes that contribute to a destination
image and many studies have been conducted to ascertain which are the most frequently
considered and used attributes in the decision making of tourists. Gallarza et al identified in
(2002) that climate was only the seventh most frequently used attribute whereas landscape
and visuals were considered the most important features, even before price. Lohmann and
Kaim (1999) also concluded that although climate was important, destinations were often
chosen in spite of climate and the likelihood of bad weather. The fundamental ways in which
climate change will act upon tourism (As listed in section 4.1) will almost certainly change the
current order of these attributes, with weather and climate expected to become the
predominant features of touristic planning.
Moreover, increased climate awareness within the global community has begun to fashion
change in how people plan their holidays and the decisions involved. A study by the Guardian
newspaper in (2007) found from the respondents that took part; 13% had stopped air travel
altogether whilst 34% had reduced short haul flights and 31% had reduced long haul flying.
Furthermore the report also identified that 29% had begun to use carbon-offset schemes as a
way to nullify the impacts of travel during holidays.
However, Anable et al (2006) suggested that only 1/3 of all UK residents accepted air travel as
a cause of climate change (There was an even lower percentage in the USA). It suggests that
the decision of tourists to use air travel as a major form of transport is set to continue. This is
further supported by Cohen and Higham (2011) who have recognised that there is a general
unwillingness to accept personal responsibility for climate change. Either people are not
aware of the effects that tourism is having on climate change or people are aware but choose
to deny it. Overall, research has shown that this strong resistance is unlikely to deter
holidaymakers from holiday patterns or transport choices despite a number of alternatives
being available (Hares 2013)

12. 12
4.2.2 Will the nature and concept of the ‘holiday’ be impacted by climate change?
Climate Change is likely to have little or no short-term changes to the decision making
however, it is possible that it will impact of the concept of the ‘holiday’ and the activities
involved.
The concept of the holiday has evolved significantly from its origins to the social norms of
today. The continual development of the aviation industry from 1960-present has been one
of the fundamental changes in the nature of holidays and how people conceive them. Many
modern day tourists no longer see it acceptable to go on holiday in their home nations.
Instead, many would much rather travel abroad in search of exotic climates and make use of
the newly affordable jet-set lifestyle. 58.5million people from the UK travelled abroad in
2013, 20% percent of whom flew to Spain for recreational purposes (Rhodes 2015). This
statistic demonstrates how far the social norms have changed, especially in the last 20 years
since air travel has become available to not just the rich elite.
However, this new reliance on aviation is causing a significant problem for lower-carbon
tourism in the future. One solution which has been put forward has been ‘Slow Travel’. This
is new idea derived from past travel patterns, where people avoid the use of air and car
transport and instead choose the option to travel to destinations more slowly overland and
to stay longer (Global average stay is 8 nights). Slow travel, which could be a consequence of
the ‘Price and Privilege’ scenario in Table 2, promotes the idea of rediscovering the pleasure
of the journey, an important aspect of past tourism before commercial aviation (Mintel
2009). Studies have shown that ‘Slow Tourism’ could have serious potential in Europe in
America where the majority of tourist trips are of short to medium distance. In spite of this,
the idea is not economically viable until sufficient infrastructure is put in place (Dickenson et
al 2010).
4.2.3 Is there a future for Eco-tourism?
Many holidaymakers are still keen to travel abroad but the perceptions of the purpose and
real costs of travel are changing. ‘What you are doing is more important than where you
are’ could be the view tourism takes as Climate Change intensifies. Eco-tourism is one
possible solution however; it is not likely to change the face of tourism across the globe. It
has been a growing phenomenon, mainly dominated by western countries however; it has
recently been adapted and used extensively as a form of tourism in many other parts of the
world. Although not necessarily a standard form of tourism, it instead is an alternative
which provides environmental friendly tourism and a form of education for any tourist
visitors. The purposes of eco-tourism include; raising the public awareness of the
environment, to inform travelers of nature processes (Whiteman 1996) and to reduce the
negative human impacts on natural areas (Sirakaya and McLellan 1998).
One could argue that there won’t be much of a natural environment left after the added
devastation and further climate change. Therefore ecotourism could be seen to provide a
refreshing form of tourism which provides both sustainability and conservation value whilst
providing empowerment of host communities. If more tourists strive to make an effort to
conserve when making holiday decisions, more of the environment will have a chance to
survive for the future generations and ecotourism could potentially be a new trend in
global tourism.

13. 13
How will Climate Change affect the
availability, nature and safety of future
transport? Does this impact upon
tourism patterns?
(Neville 2007)

14. 14
4.3 How will Climate Change affect the availability, nature and safety of future transport?
Does this impact upon tourism patterns?
Tourism involves the movement or flow of people between time and space. The study of
travel flows has been studied little and yet understanding flows and spatial patterns of
tourisms is of vital importance to tourism. Policy makers, transport geographers and the
tourism industry require this information so that they can provide better facilities and services
to cater for the needs of tourists. Determining the factors which affect tourist movement can
also be useful to assess where the optimum locations for future tourism will be situated and
whether there is a need for new travel resources. One prominent factor that promises to
impact both tourism and transport is Climate Change.
4.3.1 How will tourist perspectives on transport and travel change as a result of Climate
Change?
The attitudes of tourists towards their transport choices are likely to change over the next few
years as the effects of climate change become more and more noticeable. Whether these
attitudes allude to a change in decision making and transport choice is something altogether
different. Tourists have become far more aware of Climate Change and the potential
implications resulting from transport and travel over the last decade. However, there are
serious limitations of alternative transport modes have inhibited change and stunted growth
in other transport sectors (Papatheodorou et al 2012). Perhaps this is the reason why
alternative means such as rail, coach or private car often lack demand because they either
take too long or are too expensive when compared to air travel. The USA good example of this
as although there were over 460million domestic trips (US Travel Association 2011), ridership
levels on trains has totaled a mere 17.2 Billion compared to 400 billion in Europe, despite
having the largest rail network in the world (International Union of Railways Data 2011). Air
travel is seen as the customary way to travel (Ferrell and Hartline 2011) to and from holidays
and until development of other forms of economically sustainable transport are introduced, it
will continue to dominate, whilst making tourist attitudes seemingly irrelevant when it comes
to transport choice. Current tourism patterns seem unlikely to change while these issues
continue and attitudes towards transport choice do not appear to affect transport patterns
with respect to Climate Change. A lack of alternative transport modes mean that economics is
still the driving force behind the industry and that Climate Change can do little to change
destination or transport choice of tourists by affecting attitudes.
4.3.2 What is the future of the Aviation Industry within tourism?
Commercial aviation is one of the largest contributors to Climate Change given its fossil fuel
requirements and subsequent GHG emissions. Aviation contributes between 3-5% of these
emissions however; this figure is expected to increase simultaneously while the industry
expands further (Gossling and Peeters 2007). Emissions produced from commercial aviation
have never been compulsorily regulated and were, perhaps mistakenly, not included in the
Kyoto Protocol’s list of targets. As a result there has seemingly, never been any need for the
industry to address emissions. In recent decades however, there has been some focus put on
reducing the impact of the industry. The focus has mainly been on increasing aircraft
efficiency by improving airframes, weight reduction, and use of more fuel efficient engines as
well as improved air transport management (Becken 2007).

15. 15
Future action including; emission trading, taxing and charging has been put forward however,
the continued growth of the aviation industry means any changes made, are unlikely to reduce
overall usage nor affect the travel patterns of tourists in the immediate future. However, Brons
et al (2002) identified that increasing prices and taxation of airfares as part of Climate Change
mitigation would affect longer-haul, less price sensitive flights more in the long term. The
resulting impact could be huge on destinations such as the Caribbean and North America and
reduce demand in a region where 50% of tourism arrivals fly from Europe. Looking forward,
long-haul tourism is expected to decline however, short-haul tourism, including the use of
smaller aircraft, private car and rail transport will rise, but only once the infrastructure is
developed. This could give way to ‘Slow Travel’ as previously mentioned.
4.3.3 How will transport adapt to changing weather conditions caused by Climate Change?
Modern day transport and transportation systems are built to withstand typical weather
patterns that reflect local climate, geology and geography. They are built to function within a
reasonable range of temperatures, levels of precipitation and other climatic conditions
(Transportation Research Board 2008). Now that Climate Change has now become the single
largest factor in transport design and infrastructure planning, the effects of Climate Change on
transportation have to become more understood. Global warming and a changing climate
promises to manifest its effects in many different ways including; rising sea levels, more
weather extremes as well as storm surges and land inundation (Becken 2010). Transport
systems are most likely to be impacted in areas where the changing climate causes conditions
to spread out of the operation range at which systems are designed for. The effects will vary
between transport type and destinations however, in some locations Climate Change is
expected to drastically impact and later enforce radical changes to transportation. Climate
Change and the increasingly common extreme weather events which it has become associated
with will effect both transport operations and infrastructure.
Operationally, Climate Change is expected to increase the number of delays and cancelations.
Air travel, the driving force of modern day tourism patterns is for example, easily brought to a
standstill in high winds, heavy precipitation and extremes in temperature; hot and cold.
Although modern day aircraft are now far more robust and capable in extreme weather, the
changing nature of the climate is frequently severe enough to take aircraft beyond their
limitations (Gossling and Upham 2012). The result can cause flights to remain grounded, delays
and cancelations. This has the potential to disrupt regions which experience extreme weather
events such as tornados, cyclones and tornados. North America, the Caribbean and large parts
of Asia are highly susceptible to these types of events and the increased threat on the
transport networks feeding and servicing these destinations may reduce demand should
extreme weather become more frequent.
The effect of changing weather conditions is not as widely understood in European countries
however, as the centralised information systems which provide data rarely exist. The FP7
Weather project has been the first attempt to estimate the effects and costs of Climate Change
on transport. The report although limited to a small number of countries did highlight the
likelihood of increased transport delays but also the potential for large scale infrastructure
damage throughout Europe, amounting to €2.25 Billion a year (Nemry and Demirel 2010).
A full description of the potential impacts of Climate Change on transport is shown in Table 1.

16. 16
Potential Climate Change Examples of Impacts on
Operations
Examples of Impacts on
Infrastructure
Increases in very hot days
and heat waves
Increases in Arctic
temperatures
Rising sea levels, combined
with storm surges
Increases in intense
precipitationevents
More frequent strong
hurricanes (Category 4–5)
• Impact on lift-off load limits at
high-altitude or hot weather
airports with insufficient runway
lengths,
resulting in flight cancellations
and/or limits on payload
(i.e., weight restrictions)
• Limits on periods of
construction activity due to
health
and safety concerns
Longer ocean transport season
and more ice-free ports in
northern regions
• Possible availability of a
northern sea route or a
northwest passage
• More frequent interruptions to
coastal and low-lying
roadway travel and rail service
due to storm surges
• More severe storm surges,
requiring evacuation and/or
changes in development patterns
• Potential for closure or
restrictions at several of the top
50 airports that lie in coastal
zones, affecting service to
the highest-density populations in
the United States
Increases in weather-related
delays and traffic
disruptions
• Increased flooding of
evacuation routes
• Increases in airline delays due to
convective weather
More frequent interruptions in air
service
• More frequent and potentially
more extensive
emergencyevacuations
• More debris on roads and rail
lines, interrupting travel
and shipping
Thermal expansion on bridge
expansion joints and
paved surfaces
• Concerns regarding pavement
integrity (e.g., softening),
traffic-related rutting, migration
of liquid asphalt
• Rail-trackdeformities
Thawing of permafrost, causing
subsidence of roads, rail
beds, bridge supports (cave-in),
pipelines, and runway
foundations
• Shorter season for ice roads
Inundation of roads, rail lines, and
airport runways in
coastal areas
• More frequent or severe
flooding of underground
tunnels and low-lying
infrastructure
• Erosion of road base and bridge
supports
• Reduced clearance under
bridges
• Changes in harbour and port
facilities to accommodate
higher tides and storm surges
Increases in flooding of roadways,
rail lines,
subterranean tunnels, and
runways
• Increases in road washout,
damages to rail-bed support
structures, and landslides and
mudslides that damage
roadways and tracks
• Increases in scouring of pipeline
roadbeds and damage
to pipelines
Greater probability of
infrastructurefailures
• Increased threat to stability of
bridge decks
• Impacts on harbour
infrastructure from wave damage
and storm surges
Table 1: Potential Climate Changes and
Illustrative Impacts on Transportation
(Transportation Research Board 2008)

17. 17
Have changes in international climate
policy impacted patterns of global
tourism and how could future
Governmental Organisation (GO) and
Non-GovernmentalOrganisational
(NGO) intervention cause further
change?
United Nations 2011

18. 18
4.4 Have changes in international climate policy impacted patterns of tourism, and how
could future GO and NGO intervention cause further change? (Associated Press/ New Yo
Tourism represents approximately 9% of global GDP and is an industry which is rapidly
expanding. This growing sector is a major source of income for both Medc and Ledc
countries however, its contribution to Climate Change makes it essential for the
international community to work together to make tourism more efficient and sustainable.
Government and Non-Governmental Organisations from across the globe have begun to
step up but, have attempts aimed at making tourism more environmentally sustainable
been successful? And could certain legislations and policies affect global patterns of
tourism looking forward?
4.4.1 Have any international conferences been able to increase climate change
awareness within the tourism industry?
The Djerba International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in 2003 was the first
notable example of Governments, Organisations and experts gathering to discuss the
concerns and impacts of climate change on tourism. The outcome of the conference was
the Djerba Declaration, a framework document that detailed how tourism could be made
more sustainable and environmentally friendly. It urged all countries to sign the Kyoto
protocol, as well as encouraging the tourism sector to adjust its activities to use more
efficient technologies in areas such as transport and energy production. It also put
emphasis on helping developing nations to mitigate against Climate Change, as well as
development of their tourism sector (UNWTO 2003). By 2007, a larger conference
gathered in Davos, Switzerland to build upon what was discussed in Djerba. Consequently,
the Davos declaration was later published, representing an updated and more accepted
guide to improving sustainability (UNWTO, 2007).
The United Nations World Tourism Organisation has since strived to implement the Davos
Declaration, with some countries adopting some of the suggested policies, such as
Malaysia. The Davos conference may have highlighted areas to improve on, but it was not
until the Bali Conference in December, later that year, that in-depth discussions took place
to identify methods of adaption and mitigation. However, despite awareness increasing,
these conferences have merely offered suggestions on how to combat Climate Change.
Due to limited new legislation targeted at tourism, there has been very little action to date
to implement proposals.

19. 19
4.4.2 What has been the effect of new legislation and regulations within aviation on
tourism patterns?
Both the Davos and Bali conferences highlighted the need to reduce the impact of
transport systems within tourism and in particular, aviation which annually contributes
3-4% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Aviation represents 40% of
emissions produced from the tourism sector alone (UNWTO 2007), so improving aircraft
efficiency has been a priority for Airlines and aircraft manufacturers. The Group for
International Aviation and Climate Change (GIACC) are one of many groups devoted to
improving aircraft efficiency, by finding alternative fuels and reducing emissions. The
group is supported by the United Nations and since working together with the two
major aircraft designers, Boeing and Airbus, whilst following the Federal Aviation
Regulations, progress has been made. The fuel efficiency of domestic flights fuel
efficiency has improved by 40% since 2000, with long haul flights improving by 17%
(Peeters et al 2005). Figure 4 demonstrates these changes predicted for two modern
day aircraft in comparison to previous models along with current projections for the
future. However, with this in mind, the improvements made in air transport and logistics
have not negatively impacted global tourism patterns. Instead, the introduction of
newer, modern, more fuel efficient aircraft have promoted, new tourism patterns
altogether. Adaptations introduced to reduce the impact of the aviation on Climate
Change and the liberalisation of the industry have inadvertently allowed Airlines to take
advantage of legal loopholes and expand further (Wild 2014). In Europe, budget carriers,
such as Ryanair and Easy jet have been the main beneficiary’s as although global
legislation regarding aircraft design exists, there are no restrictions on fleet size.
Therefore, although efficiency has increased, so have the overall emissions produced,
meaning that any legislation is effectively cancelled out (Gossling and Peeters 2007).
Figure 4: Fuel efficiency of long haul
aircraft (Peeters et al 2005)

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4.4.3 Is GO or NGO involvement likely to have any impact on tourism patterns?
In regards to future tourism, Governments are already planning targets for the future
to reduce emissions. The Kyoto protocol initially intended to end in 2012 has now been
extended to 2020 following the 2011 UNFCCC Conference in Durban, South Africa
whilst alternatives were drafted (Selin 2014). However, it is more common for
Governments; globally, nationally and regionally to support the actions of NGOs. One
example, Forum for the Future, has outlined further suggestions in its ‘Tourism 2023’
report which includes four key scenarios (Table 2) designed to help UK outbound
tourism better understand its position and plan for the future. These have been
produced in order to explore the perilous uncertainties facing the industry and offers
insight into possible futures (Kennedy 2009). The report, supported by travel giants,
Thompson and TUI could kick-start changes in tourism policy in response to Climate
Change. The scenarios look to explore the varying directions in which tourism could
develop and how companies can look to develop sustainably, in a manner which
reflects the wider impacts of their services (Kennedy 2009; Travel Weekly 2009; ABTA
News 2009).
On a more global scale, the United Nations regularly host the annual Department Public
Information/Non-Governmental Organization Conference. The 65th
meeting in which
various NGO's met to urge for the 'strongest possible' action on the future of Climate
Change was perhaps the most significant to date. The UN declared that the resulting
document was shaped purely by the demands of NGOs. This is further evidence to show
that NGO's have the power to shape future policy (UN 2014).
Boom and Burst A booming UK economy and extensive improvements in transport
technology has fuelled growth in global travel. People travel more
frequently, longer distances and at faster speeds than ever before. There
are many new reasons to travel abroad however; many question how long
this can be maintained.
Dived Disquiet Travelling overseas is fast becoming an unattractive proposition. A
combination of devastating Climate Change impacts, resource wars and
social unrest has created an insecure and fearful global environment.
Security is tight and travel is time-consuming and inefficient. Many
tourists are becoming more and more selective which constitutes a very
small choice of global destinations. UK tourists are beginning to think
travelling abroad makes problems worse.
Price and Privilege High oil prices have made travel too expensive for the majority of tourists.
Cost is now the primary concern for tourists. Although a small, elite select
continues to fly, the vast majority simply cannot afford the experience.
There have been mass redundancies made across the travel industry and
the affordability of overland routes has led to radical restructuring.
Carbon Clampdown Carbon quotas have been introduced to all UK citizens as part of the
government’s brave attempts to tackle Climate Change. The public has
sought tough action as environmental impacts are increasingly felt.
Holidaymakers are highly sensitive to the impacts of their travel and seek
ethical experiences that are within their carbon budget. Holidaying in
Britain is back in fashion and has soared in popularity.
Table 2: Tourism 2023 Scenarios
(Travel Weekly, 2009; Kennedy 2009)

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5.0 Summary and Conclusions
Following an extensive review of literature and the finalising of this report, it is evident
that Climate Change will impact future tourism and that the industry should be deeply
concerned about the potential implications. The biggest worry the industry is likely to
have in the coming years is the sheer numbers of ways Climate Change will manifest its
impacts.
Rising temperatures, sea level rise and extreme weather are the fundamental ways in
which Climate Change will impact on tourism. The effects are likely to be predominantly
negative in areas already popular with tourism. However, some positive impacts may be
expected in regions not currently considered the most favourable, according the
Tourism Climatic Index.
One huge problem for tourism is the lack of feasible options of adaption and mitigation
strategy. This is not helped by a lack of personal acceptance of both tourists and the
industry whom typically shift blame onto governments or larger corporations. What is
evident however, is the need for change; both of the tourist attitude and the
infrastructure which gels the industry together. Without change the existing tourism
patterns are likely to fall apart and this could revolutionise future tourism into
something of the unknown.

22. 22
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