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Nr7 the long tail
Lecture Seven: The Long Tail
‘Forget squeezing millions from a few
megahits at the top of the charts. The
future of entertainment is in the millions
of niche markets at the shallow end of
the bitstream.’ Chris Anderson, The Long
Tail, first published in Wired
magazine, October 2004.

“The theory of the Long Tail is that our culture and economy is increasingly
shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of "hits" (mainstream
products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge
number of niches in the tail. As the costs of production and distribution fall,
especially online … narrowly-targeted goods and services can be as economically
attractive as mainstream fare” (Anderson, 2007)
Book publishing: conventional sales model
        Best
        seller                                         Profit still
        Strongly    Mid List                           available if
        supported   In                                 customer could
                    catalogue, bu
                    t poorly                           find the books
                    supported
                                    Back List
                                    Not supported or
                                    out of print




Sales

The total volume of low popularity items
exceeds the volume of high popularity items
The virtues of Long Tail
                        marketing for book buyers

1. It liberates consumers from the tyranny of
manufactured ‘popular taste’.
2. It validates the individual who does not, in
cultural respects, share the herd sensibility.
3. It caters - profitably - for book buyers with niche
interests
Problem: how does a retailer reach these
profitable niche consumers?
Example of a niche interest that became profitable

                    Touching the Void (1988) died on the
                    shelves. Ten years later it was a best-
                    seller. Why?




          Into Thin Air was published
          1998 – a best seller. And
          Amazon linked the two.
Pressure on store space

    Netfix:
    25,000+               Blockbuster:
    intangible            3000 tangible
    DVDs                  DVDS




Pressure on location
                                    Swan Theatre: max 1300 in
10 mile shopping radius
                                    audience
Will the ‘bestseller mentality’ become obsolete?

Question: why do people buy best-selling books?

Fear of exclusion from the cave?


But now popularity is
not essential for profit
Problem #1: How do you alert people to the existence of a
niche-interest book?
Problem #2: How can a niche-interest book even get
published?
One answer: long tail keyword searches
Shakespeare’s First Folio:
Shakespeare’ (74.3 million hits).
‘Shakespeare “First Folio” criticism’ (325,000 hits).
Better: ‘Shakespeare “First Folio” criticism “Ben Jonson”
editor’ (20,900 hits)

Another answer: seduction marketing.

But ‘interruption marketing’ must
precede seduction marketing – so it’s
back to the problem
BREAK EXERCISE:

Imagine you’re a small publisher. You’ve
published a new book. You need to get people
coming to your web site and buying the book.
You can’t afford to advertise it. How can you still
get a lot of people to recommend or review your
book?
The problem of pricing a digital book
(What value have mere electrons?)




Should we cut the price to promote more sales?
The problems of discounting the price of an ebook

1. Price becomes the retailer’s only Unique
Perceived Benefit

2. A cheap product is assumed to be defective or
of poor quality

3. A high price may denote value and quality
How could ebooks be sold at a robust
price - and yet still attract customers?
Introducing… batch customisation. The Long
Tail principle exemplified.

1. Will stories and entire novels be routinely written by
computer programs?

2. Will the programs be given brand names?

3. Will stories be created - as well as provided - on
demand?
Spyntax: a taste of fiction to come?
‘Rabia woke up and said: “It’s so good to be back in
Marrakech!” The donkeys in the square below snorted
with agreement.’

‘Rabia opened her eyes and cried: “It’s wonderful to be
home again in Marrakech!” The goats in the garden
beneath grunted in disbelief.’
How spyntax works (with two variations per word)
Rabia {woke up|opened her eyes} and {said|cried}: “It’s {so
good|wonderful} to be {back|home again} in Marrakech!” The
{donkeys|goats} in the {square below|garden beneath}
{snorted|grunted} {with agreement|in disbelief}.’
Spyntax with four variations per word
Rabia {woke up|opened her eyes|stretched her
arms|tossed her head} and {said|cried|exclaimed|sang}:
“It’s {so good|wonderful|marvellous|splendid} to be
{back|home again|here once more|safe again} in
Marrakech!” The {donkeys|goats|camels|dogs} in the
{square below|garden beneath|souk|street outside}
{snorted|grunted|snored|barked} {with agreement|in
disbelief|with amusement|their dissent}.’
Just these two sentences, spun as above, yield
65,536 (48) possible permutations.
A 60,000 word novel would produce 1.65 billion
permutations, greater than the population of China
4. Could each book be personalised to the
reader?

5. Could such stories become addictive?

6. Might these stories be transposed to the
computer screen and enacted in some form of
‘virtual reality’ environment?


Could this be the future of publishing – ebooks
sold in the Long Tail? And every one unique?

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Nr7 the long tail

  • 2. Lecture Seven: The Long Tail ‘Forget squeezing millions from a few megahits at the top of the charts. The future of entertainment is in the millions of niche markets at the shallow end of the bitstream.’ Chris Anderson, The Long Tail, first published in Wired magazine, October 2004. “The theory of the Long Tail is that our culture and economy is increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of "hits" (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail. As the costs of production and distribution fall, especially online … narrowly-targeted goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare” (Anderson, 2007)
  • 3. Book publishing: conventional sales model Best seller Profit still Strongly Mid List available if supported In customer could catalogue, bu t poorly find the books supported Back List Not supported or out of print Sales The total volume of low popularity items exceeds the volume of high popularity items
  • 4. The virtues of Long Tail marketing for book buyers 1. It liberates consumers from the tyranny of manufactured ‘popular taste’. 2. It validates the individual who does not, in cultural respects, share the herd sensibility. 3. It caters - profitably - for book buyers with niche interests Problem: how does a retailer reach these profitable niche consumers?
  • 5. Example of a niche interest that became profitable Touching the Void (1988) died on the shelves. Ten years later it was a best- seller. Why? Into Thin Air was published 1998 – a best seller. And Amazon linked the two.
  • 6. Pressure on store space Netfix: 25,000+ Blockbuster: intangible 3000 tangible DVDs DVDS Pressure on location Swan Theatre: max 1300 in 10 mile shopping radius audience
  • 7. Will the ‘bestseller mentality’ become obsolete? Question: why do people buy best-selling books? Fear of exclusion from the cave? But now popularity is not essential for profit Problem #1: How do you alert people to the existence of a niche-interest book? Problem #2: How can a niche-interest book even get published?
  • 8. One answer: long tail keyword searches Shakespeare’s First Folio: Shakespeare’ (74.3 million hits). ‘Shakespeare “First Folio” criticism’ (325,000 hits). Better: ‘Shakespeare “First Folio” criticism “Ben Jonson” editor’ (20,900 hits) Another answer: seduction marketing. But ‘interruption marketing’ must precede seduction marketing – so it’s back to the problem
  • 9. BREAK EXERCISE: Imagine you’re a small publisher. You’ve published a new book. You need to get people coming to your web site and buying the book. You can’t afford to advertise it. How can you still get a lot of people to recommend or review your book?
  • 10. The problem of pricing a digital book (What value have mere electrons?) Should we cut the price to promote more sales?
  • 11. The problems of discounting the price of an ebook 1. Price becomes the retailer’s only Unique Perceived Benefit 2. A cheap product is assumed to be defective or of poor quality 3. A high price may denote value and quality
  • 12. How could ebooks be sold at a robust price - and yet still attract customers? Introducing… batch customisation. The Long Tail principle exemplified. 1. Will stories and entire novels be routinely written by computer programs? 2. Will the programs be given brand names? 3. Will stories be created - as well as provided - on demand?
  • 13. Spyntax: a taste of fiction to come? ‘Rabia woke up and said: “It’s so good to be back in Marrakech!” The donkeys in the square below snorted with agreement.’ ‘Rabia opened her eyes and cried: “It’s wonderful to be home again in Marrakech!” The goats in the garden beneath grunted in disbelief.’ How spyntax works (with two variations per word) Rabia {woke up|opened her eyes} and {said|cried}: “It’s {so good|wonderful} to be {back|home again} in Marrakech!” The {donkeys|goats} in the {square below|garden beneath} {snorted|grunted} {with agreement|in disbelief}.’
  • 14. Spyntax with four variations per word Rabia {woke up|opened her eyes|stretched her arms|tossed her head} and {said|cried|exclaimed|sang}: “It’s {so good|wonderful|marvellous|splendid} to be {back|home again|here once more|safe again} in Marrakech!” The {donkeys|goats|camels|dogs} in the {square below|garden beneath|souk|street outside} {snorted|grunted|snored|barked} {with agreement|in disbelief|with amusement|their dissent}.’ Just these two sentences, spun as above, yield 65,536 (48) possible permutations. A 60,000 word novel would produce 1.65 billion permutations, greater than the population of China
  • 15. 4. Could each book be personalised to the reader? 5. Could such stories become addictive? 6. Might these stories be transposed to the computer screen and enacted in some form of ‘virtual reality’ environment? Could this be the future of publishing – ebooks sold in the Long Tail? And every one unique?