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MERRIMACK COLLEGE
Variances in Voting
Behavioral Patterns in West Virginia and
Vermont
John McCarthy
10/26/2016
McCarthy 2
Voting Behaviors
Objectively, the history of the state of West Virginia and the state of Vermont could not
seem to be more dissimilar, and today appear to be polar opposites of one another. However
they share several characteristics both historically and demographically that make them an
interesting pair. The most striking similarity though is that the two went through a sudden and
unexpected change in the way the states fell politically. Both of these states used to be solid and
automatic votes for their respective party at the presidential level before seemingly overnight,
they became firmly entrenched in the other part’s camp. Practically beginning with the founding
of the Republican Party in 1854, the state of Vermont was its most avid supporter, and the
Democrats controlled West Virginia for decades. Even today the lingering vestiges of this old
alignment appear at the state level, with Vermont only electing one Democrat to the Senate in its
entire history and only one member of that party to its at-large congressional seat. In West
Virginia, the first Republican elected Senator since W. Chapman Revercomb in 1956 was elected
just two years ago. However it was the sudden and complete 180° change that makes it strange
to tell someone from the Millennial generation that Vermont was a Republican stronghold and
West Virginia a bulwark of the Democratic Party. There are several possibilities that could
describe the variance in the voting patterns in these two states including a demographic change,
the change in the economic outlook of the state and the ideological change within the states and
within the national parties.
Both the states of Vermont and West Virginia entered the Union out of land once
belonging to another state. Vermont’s split happened much earlier than its counterpart,
establishing its sovereignty independent of New York and New Hampshire in 1791, embodying
McCarthy 3
the independent streak that is typical of the New England character1. It quickly established itself
as an opponent of the War of 1812 and prohibited slavery in its original constitution. As the
Federalist Party died out during the so-called Era of Good Feelings and the Old Republicans
fractured into several factions, Vermont became a haven for the supporters of John Quincy
Adams and the burgeoning Anti-Masonic Party. In 1832, Vermont actually voted for the Anti-
Masonic candidate over Henry Clay, the only state that William Wirt would carry that year.
With the Whig Party becoming the primary adversary of the Democrats, Vermont remained
firmly in the Whig camp, even during periods of relative dominance by the Democrats across the
rest of the country2. By the birth of the Republican Party in 1854, Vermont eagerly took up that
mantle as well. Vermont was so solidly Republican, it did not elect its first Democratic governor
until 1853 and would not repeat the feat for the next 110 years. Even in Democratic sweep
years, Vermont stayed true to the Party of Lincoln, being one of two states that Alf Landon was
able to win in 1936 against Franklin Roosevelt.
Vermont’s political predilections were so well known to the country at large that in the
1954 film White Christmas, when Danny Kay was attempting to think of a novelty in Vermont
he remarked to Bing Crosby, “Maybe we can dig up a Democrat.” To which Bing responded
with the scoff, “No, they’d stone him.”3 The first time that the state voted for a Democrat for
president was 1964 when the average Vermonter could not stomach the rabid conservatism
espoused by Senator Barry Goldwater, but four years later they were back in the Republican
column4. However, slowly the ideological shift across the nation had begun a process that as of
1 "The 14th State." Vermont History Explorer, Vermont Historical Society. November 15, 2016.
2 Michael F. Holt, The Rise and Fall of the American Whig Party. Oxford University Press,2003.Pp. 22-23.
3 Danny Kay,Bing Crosby, White Christmas. Dir.Michael Curtiz, IrvingBerlin.1954:ParamountPictures,Film.
4 Rick Perlstein,Before the Storm: Barry Goldwater and the Unmaking of the American Consensus. New York:
Nation Books, 2001.Pp. 512.
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today has Vermont as one of the most liberal states in the Union, giving President Obama his
largest win in 2012 after Hawaii.
West Virginia though similar to Vermont in many ways, did not become solidly
Democrat until further in its lifetime than Vermont identified with the Republicans, and has
switched parties much more recently then Vermont has. Both states emerged from the
boundaries of another, but West Virginia’s was more controversy fraught than Vermont’s was.
At the outbreak of the Civil War in 1860, West Virginia had been encompassed by the
Commonwealth of Virginia for the entirety of the history of the United States. The decision by
the Commonwealth to join its southern brethren in succeeding from the Union not only was a
very difficult choice but also one that divided Virginia very deeply. While admittance into the
Confederate States of America brought along some of the finest soldiers in the American armed
services, the mountainous western region of the commonwealth, long disenfranchised by the
planter class in the east who were over represented in the General Assembly, was apoplectic at
the vote’s verdict5. Many of the delegates from this region reconvened at the Wheeling
Convention and set up a loyalist government in the west, sending Senators and Representatives
to Washington in Virginia’s place whilst drawing up plans for a new state6. The new state was
accepted with a constitution allowing for the gradual abolition of slavery in 1863, though border
disputes have long festered between the west and its parent state, some of them appearing before
the Supreme Court.
The death of the Reconstruction era in the 19th Century led to a resurgence of the
Democratic Party at the state level, but at the presidential level the state remained Republican all
5 “West Virginia.”History.com, The History Channel. 2016.Web.
6 “FirstWheeling Convention.” West Virginia Archives & History, West Virginia Division of Cultureand History.
Web.
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the way through the sweeps of the 1920s. The onset of the Great Depression in 1929 led to the
Democratic dominance that would continue for the next 80 years. The Democratic Party remains
the only major party to nominate a Mountaineer for president, John W. Davis in 1924 who would
go on to lose to Calvin Coolidge. Between the thirties and the early 2000s, the state has largely
remained within the hands of the Democratic Party at the state level. The state did vote for
President Eisenhower in the 1956, but remained firmly under the control of the Democrats, not
voting for a Republican again until the 49 state sweeps in 1972 and 1984. Even in 1980 when
President Jimmy Carter only won six states, one of them was West Virginia and it was also one
of the only ten states that Governor Michael Dukakis won in 1988. After voting twice for
Governor Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, West Virginia began to move from the left to the right,
voting for Governor George W. Bush in 2000, and voting for the Republican candidate for
president in the next four subsequent elections, increasing the margin of victory each time7.
Though the state voted for her husband twice, West Virginia is projected to vote for Donald
Trump over Hillary Clinton by 42 percentage points in 20168.
West Virginia was slightly different than Vermont in that it was the presidential vote
that eventually affected local politics. After voting for the Republican candidate beginning in
2000, both chambers of the state legislature became controlled by the Republican Party in the
2014 midterm elections. That same year all three of the congressional seats were won by the
GOP for the first time since 1924, and the Republicans won a Senate seat for the first time since
1957. Vermont’s transition occurred beginning at the state level and eventually expanding to
include its national political stance as well. There are several possible explanations to this
7 John Woolley and Gerhard Peters, “Presidential Elections Data.” The American Presidency Project, University of
California,Santa Barbara. November 15, 2016.
8 “West Virginia Election Results:2016.” The New York Times, The New York Times Company. November 9, 2016.
McCarthy 6
phenomenon, many of which have been posed by historians and average Americans. The first
potential explanation for this change is a shift in the states demographics. There is the common
belief espoused by many from political pundits to ordinary citizens who believe the electoral
shift occurred in the state because of the influx of New Yorkers moving to the area. The
presence of prominent New Yorkers within the state of Vermont has only strengthened this
notion as popular ice cream magnates Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield of Ben & Jerry’s Ice
Cream are both Long Island and Brooklyn supplants and the Independent United States Senator
Bernie Sanders is an expatriate from the Empire State910.
The perception of this however, may be too simplistic an answer to the question of why
this change has happened in the state. A book on the shifting nature of politics in upper New
England showed that it was the areas of Vermont that had the highest born in state proportion of
residents were the focus of the Democratic gains in the state. Those areas that had high
percentage of native Vermonters has the strongest Democratic gains, which strangely enough
coincided with the cities and towns with a high population of ethnically English populations. At
the time this study was taken, it was the cities with new state residents and those with ethnically
French background where the Republican’s were still strong and actually making gains within
these areas11.
This could suggest a few things, and where the out-of-staters came from becomes an
important issue. If they came from the more conservative areas of the country, including
neighboring New Hampshire, then that could explain it. If those with French heritage are more
9 “Our History.” Ben and Jerry’s Ice Cream. November 2016.
10 “About Bernie.” Bernie Sanders, United States Senator from Vermont. November 2016.
11 Robert W. Steel, Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northeastern United States: Electoral Realignment, 1952-
1996. University Park, Pennsylvania:The Pennsylvania StateUniversity Press,1998.Pp. 63-65.
McCarthy 7
likely to vote Republican, than it could be related to the close proximity of Quebec and any
Canadians who emigrated there. Those leaving Canada for the United States generally do so for
economic reasons, as many immigrants do, and it would stand to reason that by leaving a much
more liberal society in Canada, they would be drawn to the conservative wing of the American
political system on economic issues. This could perhaps coincide with the strength of the left in
Canada in the 1980s and before with the elections of Pierre Trudeau juxtaposed to the elections
of Ronald Reagan in the United States at primarily the same time. Further the anti-Quebec
stance that Trudeau took in the face of the Quebec independence referendum, refusing to even
acknowledge its legitimacy12. While perhaps not all of the changes in the state’s record have
come from an influx of new voters, the study aforementioned was conducted almost twenty years
ago and some still have doubts that it has nothing to do with an increase in voters not originally
from Vermont.
The college towns are very important in Vermont, as one of the most rural and least
populated states in the Union; they are a concentration of young voters in an incredibly liberal
environment that may also take in students from other states. Though Vermont is the whitest
state in the Union, the city of Burlington, Vermont is a member city of the Refugee Resettlement
program which is making its largest vote center more ethnically diverse and increasing the
likelihood of voting for a Democrat. Also, there is credence to the suggestion that some New
Yorkers or those from urban Massachusetts decided to move away from their homes into the
upper New England rural regions. There after a “self sorting” took place, and conservatives
12 John English, Just Watch Me: The Life of Pierre Elliot Trudeau Volume Two: 1968-2000. Toronto: Knopf Canada,
2009.Pp. 454.
McCarthy 8
attracted to the no tax state of New Hampshire settled there, and liberals decided to go to
Vermont instead in the 1960s and 1970s13.
Professor Garrison Nelson of the University of Vermont also points to the passage of a
state initiative called Act 250, which limited development projects across the state, which in turn
appealed to the environmentalists across the country and encouraged them to move there, further
pulling the state to the left. The impact of that migration can be seen on the political level, as the
outgoing Governor of Vermont, Peter Schumlin was the first native Vermonter in the post in
almost forty years14. Though the current makeup of Vermont does not appear likely to vote for a
Republican for president in the foreseeable future, statewide they can still be competitive with
Schumlin about to be replaced by a Republican governor.
While there appears to be some credence to the idea that new Vermonters were influential
in the move to the ideological left, but it does not seem to be the case for West Virginia. The
Mountain State is not an attraction to Americans inclined toward nomadic tendencies, being one
of the poorest states in the Union and the terrain is heavily forested and, as their nicknames
suggest, mountainous. West Virginia has the lowest college graduates per capita in the United
States and there are many issues with healthcare and home ownership. That being said, West
Virginia is perhaps the most “blue collar” state in the country with many residences in the
mining industry and other labor intensive occupations. Further, West Virginia is the second most
rural state after Vermont with very little urbanization, which has an impact in political
13 Micah Cohen, “’New Vermont’ is Liberal,but‘Old Vermont’ is Still There.” The New York Times, The New York
Times Company. October 21, 2012.
14 Micah Cohen, “’New Vermont’ is Liberal,but‘Old Vermont’ is Still There.” The New York Times, The New York
Times Company. October 21, 2012.
McCarthy 9
considerations. Considering all of these factors, what could have led to the shift in state politics
that has made it now so reliable for the Grand Old Party?
A possible explanation for the change in both the Mountain State and the Green
Mountain State is that the central politics of the state remained much the same, and rather it was
the national parties that shifted ideologies and alienated those who previously had been their
most solid base of support. Examples of this can be seen in the representatives that were elected
to the Congress from Vermont and West Virginia. The top three prominent Vermont
Republicans in Congress from the 1960s to the early 2000s, George Aiken, Robert Stafford and
Jim Jeffords were all considered moderates or even liberal Republicans when they served. West
Virginia’s Senators were similar in that both Democrats Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller were
on the moderate side of the Party of Jackson, though Byrd more than Rockefeller. In an
ideological lifetime score from GovTrack, Jeffords voting record was to the left of both
Rockefeller and Byrd. Similarly, Jeffords predecessor Robert Stafford was rated to the left of
Senator Byrd, and former Senator Aiken was rated in the same ideological region as Byrd and
Rockefeller’s predecessor Senator Randolph.
George Aiken’s western liberals had long battled the conservative easterners within the
state’s GOP and beginning in the 1960s he was largely successful in steering the party
establishment to the left. Early in Jim Jeffords’ career, he became associated with the Aiken
wing of the party when as Attorney General he challenged International Paper Co. over its
pollution of Lake Champlain, defying the pro-business elements in the party15. Jeffords would
later be the only US House of Representatives member to vote against President Reagan’s 1981
15 Garrison Nelson,“Jim Jeffords: Reluctant Rebel.” Vermont Digger, vtdigger.org. September 14, 2014. Web.
McCarthy 10
tax cut bill, also known as the Kemp-Roth tax cuts16. The Senate passed it by voice vote making
it unknown whether or not Senator Byrd voted for the cuts or not. However Byrd and
Rockefeller, as well as Jim Jeffords (then senator) voted for the 1986 Reagan tax cut17.
The unconventionality of these representatives can be seen in other votes as well in
Congress, most strikingly in the vicious confirmation votes of Supreme Court nominees. When
President Reagan nominated Robert Bork to the Supreme Court in 1987, the fight that occurred
in the confirmation hearings resulted in the rejection of Bork as a Supreme Court Justice by a
vote of 42-58. Two Democrats voted in favor, but six Republicans voted against including
Robert Stafford of Vermont. A similar fight four years later occurred with the Clarence Thomas
nomination. Thomas was able to survive by a vote of 52-48, but Jeffords was one of only two
Senate Republicans to vote against his confirmation. However, the 1969 fight in the replacement
of Abe Fortas to the bench saw a reversal of this, with Nixon’s nominee Clement Haynesworth
failing to attain a spot on the bench with a 45-55 vote. West Virginia Senators, Byrd and
Randolph voted yea, along with Republican Senators Aiken and Prouty. The follow-up vote for
the open seat, with the nominee this time being G. Harold Carswell, was also defeated by a vote
of 45-51. Byrd, Randolph and Aiken all voted for Judge Carswell, but Senator Prouty voted
against the Nixon nominee. Even the comparably less contentious confirmation of Samuel Alito
in 2005 saw Senator Jeffords, now an Independent caucusing with the Democrats, vote against
the conservative while Senator Byrd voted for him.
These votes on the consent of the potential appointees to the highest bench show the
relative fluidity of the representatives in going against the orthodoxy of their political parties.
16 “H.R. 4242 — 97th Congress: Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981.” www.GovTrack.us. 1981.November 30,
2016.
17 “H.R. 3838 — 99th Congress: Tax Reform Act of 1986.” www.GovTrack.us. 1985. November 30, 2016.
McCarthy 11
This can be seen in the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which Senators Byrd and Rockefeller
voted in favor of18. Again the expected votes of these representatives did not follow what was
assumed of these Senators in the case of the 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force
Against Iraq which Senator Rockefeller voted in favor of but Senator Jeffords did not19. In 2003
the differences can be seen between Senators Byrd and Jeffords over the Partial-Birth Abortion
Ban, which the Democrat Byrd voted yea on the ban and the Independent Jeffords voted nay20.
At this point, Senator Jeffords had left the Republican Party and was an Independent
caucusing with the Democrats. The 1990s and early 2000s saw a flood of liberal Republicans
leaving the GOP and blue-dog conservative Democrats joining it. After the 2000 election the US
Senate was split with 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats, but the Republicans held the majority
because Republican Vice President Dick Cheney acted as the tie-breaking vote. This Senate
makeup lasted for a few months before the White House got into a fight with Senator Jeffords
who wanted to keep federal funding for special education in a specific bill and threatened to
cross the aisle. Not wanting to be held hostage for the entirety of the 107th Congress, the White
House decided to let him walk and give them Democrats control of the upper chamber21. The
ideological shift in the parties could be seen with the numerous aisle crossings that occurred in
this time period. Liberal Northeast Republicans such as Senator Arlen Specter, Jim Webb and
Lincoln Chafee joining Jeffords in moving to the left while conservatives such as Buddy
Roemer, Norm Coleman, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Sonny Perdue and Richard Shelby joined
18 “H.R. 3396 — 104th Congress: Defense of MarriageAct.” www.GovTrack.us. 1996. November 30, 2016.
19 “H.J.Res. 114 — 107th Congress:Authorization for Use of Military ForceAgainstIraq Resolution of 2002.”
www.GovTrack.us. 2002.November 30, 2016.
20 “S. 3 — 108th Congress:Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003.” www.GovTrack.us. 2003. November 30, 2016.
21 Peter Baker, Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House. Anchor Publishing, New York. 2013. Print.Pp.
103-105
McCarthy 12
the Republicans and even Democrats such as Joe Lieberman and Michael Bloomberg moved to
the right in this time period22.
This time period shows a fundamental shift in the party identities as they became less
moderate and more sectionalized. While the drift of Vermont to the left was better chronicled
and less surprising, it was really the 2000 election that showed these true differences. The aim of
the Bush-Cheney campaign was to drive out the base voters by appeals to the cultural issues that
split the parties, issues such as abortion and gay marriage. This had the effect of marginalizing
the moderate and liberal elements within the party and they either did not vote, or decided to vote
for Ralph Nader or Vice President Gore. The 2004 election had even more of a cultural focus
and the President’s campaign was very successful in painting Kerry as a Massachusetts liberal
the way the first President Bush had tagged Michael Dukakis sixteen years before23. Kerry fled
to the right of his previous issues to try to compete, but was eventually unsuccessful. However,
this tectonic transformation left out many traditional Dewey and Rockefeller Republicans from
the Eastern Establishment and by consequence George W. Bush became the first Republican to
win the White House without taking Vermont, and the first Republican to win without any
electoral votes from California. While Vermont had begun to be identified as a liberal state in
the years previously, the metamorphosis of the state was solidified in the contentious races of the
2000s.
The election of 2000 also saw West Virginia become a solidly Republican state in the
presidential election cycles. Bill Clinton won the state twice because of his moderate stances on
the issues and the fact that he was a Southern Democrat, as well as his focus on the blue-collar
22 “Politicians who switched parties.” CNN politics, CNN. June 3, 2015. Web.
23 ElaineKamarck,"Can outdated label still hurtKerry?" The Boston Globe, Boston Globe Media Partners LLC. July
25, 2004.
McCarthy 13
workers that so populate the state. Clinton’s message of “I feel your pain” resonated with the
voters in the Mountain State. The traditional Democratic ties to the labor unions was particularly
helpful in a state that had high union membership and higher rates of voters with only a high
school degree24. This changed in the election of 2000, where Al Gore, though he was a
Southerner himself, seemed to be more a creature of Washington than the Texas Governor. Gore
could never shake the image of an elitist who talked down to people rather than the folksy Bush
that voters found charming and likeable. What killed Gore in West Virginia, and has since
doomed the Democratic nominees of president there, was his stance on the environment and
energy particularly the coal industry. As Vice President, Gore became the face of the green and
renewable energy lobby, a position he has kept out of office with his global warming crusade and
his holy war against fossil fuels25. The coal industry is perhaps the most important jobs sector in
the state and the hostility that the Gore campaign exhibited towards one of the state’s main
source of income hurt his chances of winning the state greatly26. The entire 2000 campaign can
be reexamined with hundreds of what-if propositions, and as with any state, had Gore just
flipped this once Democratic mainstay or even his own home state of Tennessee than he would
be president. Democrats did not help themselves in West Virginia during the culture wars of the
2000s and the retirement of Jay Rockefeller and death of Robert Byrd has led to a Republican
resurgence in the state and the only Democrats who can survive there are those like Joe Manchin,
24
Troy M. Stewart, Richard A. Brisbin,Robert Jay Dilger, Allan S.Hammock, and Christopher Z. Mooney. "West
Virginia Politics and Government." (1997): 153-155.
25 Mahita Gajanan,“Al Gore Says He Hopes To Work With Donald Trump To Fight ClimateChange.” Time
Magazine, Time Inc.November 9, 2016.
26 Micah Cohen, “In West Virginia,Coal Means More, Party Less.” The New York Times, The New York Times
Company. July 3, 2012.
McCarthy 14
who hinted that he may switch parties in the Senate or may be in consideration for a cabinet spot
in the Trump Administration27.
The Democrats did not help themselves in the 2016 election when Hillary Clinton said
that she was going to “put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of a business.”28 This
antagonism towards the coal industry led to a thorough rejection by the state’s voters in the
Democratic primary where they voted for Senator Bernie Sanders, and the presidential election
when the voters went overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump in what had once been the archetype of
Clinton-ism in the 1990s. What this seems to show, in both Vermont and West Virginia, is that
the dramatic transition of voting behaviors in the states may be connected. While there is a case
to be made in Vermont about the influx of new voters with alternative viewpoints to those of the
traditional Republicans, the better argument is that it was not so much that these two states left
their parties as the parties left them. The conservative ascendancy in the GOP that began in the
1970s and continued to calcify support within the party through the 21st Century differs greatly
than the party that counted George Aiken, John Chaffee, Jacob Javits and Edward Brooke among
its members. While it is possible to say that Vermont has become more liberal in its outlook, it
is difficult to argue that it was ever truly conservative the way that conservatism is presently
constituted.
There is the same issue in West Virginia, as the Democratic Party became increasingly
liberal and lost its core support of the downtrodden, blue-collar, union and low-income voters
and instead concentrated its “get out the vote” efforts on the urban centers and an amalgamation
of cherry picked identity groups through targeted efforts, it ended up demonizing the group that
27 Eric Beech, “Trump consideringDemocratic Senator Manchin for energy secretary.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters
Corporation.December 1, 2016.
28 Daniel Strauss,“Clinton haunted by coal country comment.” Politico.com, Politico. May 10, 2016.
McCarthy 15
had for so long been the heart of the party. The polarization of both major parties has led to a
realignment in the voting blocks, and one can imagine the Democrats of today would shudder at
the thought of once counting Zell Miller, Phil Gramm, Nathan Deal, John Connally and John
Breaux as members of their party. The energy issue has lost the Democrats elections on all
levels in the states of West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and at the moment it has
eliminated the chances of them winning West Virginia in a presidential contest for the
foreseeable future.
If either party looks to retake these states that they have abandoned in the past decades
there needs to be a way to incorporate moderating positions in the party and not allow the
national stances of the party nominees to poison the well for down ballot candidates. For
Democrats to be successful in West Virginia, they need to be able to straddle the coal question
and the national stances. For Republicans in Vermont, there needs to be a way to stick to fiscal
conservatism without delving too deeply into the cultural conservative traps that would lead to
their downfall. Both parties have begun to engage in internecine warfare within their own
caucuses, purging nonconformists to their accepted dogmas with vicious bloodletting that stifles
alternative viewpoints. If there was one way that this could be rectified, it would need to be done
in the nominating process. The issue with primary contests is that generally only the motivated
extreme wings of the parties turn out to the primary contests which naturally lead to the choice of
ideological purity, and then the average voter complains about his choices in the general election.
A return to the convention methods of the past would be more likely to allow for ideological
variances. The primary contests could remain for the presidential nominees of the parties, but
the extremely low turnout in statewide primary races for offices such as state treasurer or
attorney general only leads to the increased possibility of extreme elements to be placed in
McCarthy 16
positions of power. While the convention process relies upon a small cadre of “experts” rather
than the populace at large, and rightly argued against as an oligarchic form of government, the
way the primary process works now could also be argued as oligarchic, when the turnout is only
ten percent or lower. Presidential primaries at least have higher turnouts and can be better said to
represent the interests of the voting populace, the same cannot be said for almost any primary
race across the Union. This change may not occur, but it is worth considering at a time when
every voter seems to complain about polarization but no one seems prepared to do anything
about it. If there becomes a way for the parties to integrate a wider spectrum of ideas within the
“big tent” notion of political parties, whether through reform of the primary process or by some
other alteration, than there may yet be hope for the Northeast Republicans and Southern
Democrats.
McCarthy 17
Works Cited
“About Bernie.” Bernie Sanders, United States Senator from Vermont. November 2016.
Baker, Peter. Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House. Anchor Publishing, New York.
2013. Print. Pp. 103-105
Beech, Eric. “Trump considering Democratic Senator Manchin for energy secretary.” Reuters,
Thomson Reuters Corporation. December 1, 2016.
Cohen, Micah. “In West Virginia, Coal Means More, Party Less.” The New York Times, The
New York Times Company. July 3, 2012.
Cohen, Micah. “’New Vermont’ is Liberal, but ‘Old Vermont’ is Still There.” The New York
Times, The New York Times Company. October 21, 2012.
English, John. Just Watch Me: The Life of Pierre Elliot Trudeau Volume Two: 1968-2000.
Toronto: Knopf Canada, 2009. Pp. 454.
“First Wheeling Convention.” West Virginia Archives & History, West Virginia Division of
Culture and History. Web.
Gajanan, Mahita. “Al Gore Says He Hopes To Work With Donald Trump To Fight Climate
Change.” Time Magazine, Time Inc. November 9, 2016.
“H.J.Res. 114 — 107th Congress: Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq
Resolution of 2002.” www.GovTrack.us. 2002. November 30, 2016.
Holt, Michael F. The Rise and Fall of the American Whig Party. Oxford University Press, 2003.
McCarthy 18
Pp. 22-23.
“H.R. 3396 — 104th Congress: Defense of Marriage Act.” www.GovTrack.us. 1996. November
30, 2016.
“H.R. 3838 — 99th Congress: Tax Reform Act of 1986.” www.GovTrack.us. 1985. November
30, 2016.
“H.R. 4242 — 97th Congress: Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981.” www.GovTrack.us. 1981.
November 30, 2016.
Kamarck, Elaine, “Can outdated label still hurt Kerry?" The Boston Globe, Boston Globe Media
Partners LLC. July 25, 2004.
Kay, Danny, Bing Crosby, White Christmas. Dir. Michael Curtiz, Irving Berlin. 1954:
Paramount Pictures, Film.
Nelson, Garrison. “Jim Jeffords: Reluctant Rebel.” Vermont Digger, vtdigger.org. September
14, 2014. Web.
“Our History.” Ben and Jerry’s Ice Cream. November 2016.
Perlstein, Rick. Before the Storm: Barry Goldwater and the Unmaking of the American
Consensus. New York: Nation Books, 2001. Pp. 512.
“Politicians who switched parties.” CNN politics, CNN. June 3, 2015. Web.
“S. 3 — 108th Congress: Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003.” www.GovTrack.us. 2003.
November 30, 2016.
McCarthy 19
Steel, Robert W. Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northeastern United States: Electoral
Realignment, 1952-1996. University Park, Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania State
University Press, 1998. Pp. 63-65.
Stewart, Troy M., Richard A. Brisbin, Robert Jay Dilger, Allan S. Hammock, and Christopher Z.
Mooney. "West Virginia Politics and Government." (1997): 153-155.
Daniel Strauss, “Clinton haunted by coal country comment.” Politico.com, Politico. May 10,
2016.
"The 14th State." Vermont History Explorer, Vermont Historical Society. November 15, 2016.
“West Virginia.” History.com, The History Channel. 2016. Web.
Woolley, John and Gerhard Peters, “Presidential Elections Data.” The American Presidency
Project, University of California, Santa Barbara. November 15, 2016.

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Voting Behaviors

  • 1. MERRIMACK COLLEGE Variances in Voting Behavioral Patterns in West Virginia and Vermont John McCarthy 10/26/2016
  • 2. McCarthy 2 Voting Behaviors Objectively, the history of the state of West Virginia and the state of Vermont could not seem to be more dissimilar, and today appear to be polar opposites of one another. However they share several characteristics both historically and demographically that make them an interesting pair. The most striking similarity though is that the two went through a sudden and unexpected change in the way the states fell politically. Both of these states used to be solid and automatic votes for their respective party at the presidential level before seemingly overnight, they became firmly entrenched in the other part’s camp. Practically beginning with the founding of the Republican Party in 1854, the state of Vermont was its most avid supporter, and the Democrats controlled West Virginia for decades. Even today the lingering vestiges of this old alignment appear at the state level, with Vermont only electing one Democrat to the Senate in its entire history and only one member of that party to its at-large congressional seat. In West Virginia, the first Republican elected Senator since W. Chapman Revercomb in 1956 was elected just two years ago. However it was the sudden and complete 180° change that makes it strange to tell someone from the Millennial generation that Vermont was a Republican stronghold and West Virginia a bulwark of the Democratic Party. There are several possibilities that could describe the variance in the voting patterns in these two states including a demographic change, the change in the economic outlook of the state and the ideological change within the states and within the national parties. Both the states of Vermont and West Virginia entered the Union out of land once belonging to another state. Vermont’s split happened much earlier than its counterpart, establishing its sovereignty independent of New York and New Hampshire in 1791, embodying
  • 3. McCarthy 3 the independent streak that is typical of the New England character1. It quickly established itself as an opponent of the War of 1812 and prohibited slavery in its original constitution. As the Federalist Party died out during the so-called Era of Good Feelings and the Old Republicans fractured into several factions, Vermont became a haven for the supporters of John Quincy Adams and the burgeoning Anti-Masonic Party. In 1832, Vermont actually voted for the Anti- Masonic candidate over Henry Clay, the only state that William Wirt would carry that year. With the Whig Party becoming the primary adversary of the Democrats, Vermont remained firmly in the Whig camp, even during periods of relative dominance by the Democrats across the rest of the country2. By the birth of the Republican Party in 1854, Vermont eagerly took up that mantle as well. Vermont was so solidly Republican, it did not elect its first Democratic governor until 1853 and would not repeat the feat for the next 110 years. Even in Democratic sweep years, Vermont stayed true to the Party of Lincoln, being one of two states that Alf Landon was able to win in 1936 against Franklin Roosevelt. Vermont’s political predilections were so well known to the country at large that in the 1954 film White Christmas, when Danny Kay was attempting to think of a novelty in Vermont he remarked to Bing Crosby, “Maybe we can dig up a Democrat.” To which Bing responded with the scoff, “No, they’d stone him.”3 The first time that the state voted for a Democrat for president was 1964 when the average Vermonter could not stomach the rabid conservatism espoused by Senator Barry Goldwater, but four years later they were back in the Republican column4. However, slowly the ideological shift across the nation had begun a process that as of 1 "The 14th State." Vermont History Explorer, Vermont Historical Society. November 15, 2016. 2 Michael F. Holt, The Rise and Fall of the American Whig Party. Oxford University Press,2003.Pp. 22-23. 3 Danny Kay,Bing Crosby, White Christmas. Dir.Michael Curtiz, IrvingBerlin.1954:ParamountPictures,Film. 4 Rick Perlstein,Before the Storm: Barry Goldwater and the Unmaking of the American Consensus. New York: Nation Books, 2001.Pp. 512.
  • 4. McCarthy 4 today has Vermont as one of the most liberal states in the Union, giving President Obama his largest win in 2012 after Hawaii. West Virginia though similar to Vermont in many ways, did not become solidly Democrat until further in its lifetime than Vermont identified with the Republicans, and has switched parties much more recently then Vermont has. Both states emerged from the boundaries of another, but West Virginia’s was more controversy fraught than Vermont’s was. At the outbreak of the Civil War in 1860, West Virginia had been encompassed by the Commonwealth of Virginia for the entirety of the history of the United States. The decision by the Commonwealth to join its southern brethren in succeeding from the Union not only was a very difficult choice but also one that divided Virginia very deeply. While admittance into the Confederate States of America brought along some of the finest soldiers in the American armed services, the mountainous western region of the commonwealth, long disenfranchised by the planter class in the east who were over represented in the General Assembly, was apoplectic at the vote’s verdict5. Many of the delegates from this region reconvened at the Wheeling Convention and set up a loyalist government in the west, sending Senators and Representatives to Washington in Virginia’s place whilst drawing up plans for a new state6. The new state was accepted with a constitution allowing for the gradual abolition of slavery in 1863, though border disputes have long festered between the west and its parent state, some of them appearing before the Supreme Court. The death of the Reconstruction era in the 19th Century led to a resurgence of the Democratic Party at the state level, but at the presidential level the state remained Republican all 5 “West Virginia.”History.com, The History Channel. 2016.Web. 6 “FirstWheeling Convention.” West Virginia Archives & History, West Virginia Division of Cultureand History. Web.
  • 5. McCarthy 5 the way through the sweeps of the 1920s. The onset of the Great Depression in 1929 led to the Democratic dominance that would continue for the next 80 years. The Democratic Party remains the only major party to nominate a Mountaineer for president, John W. Davis in 1924 who would go on to lose to Calvin Coolidge. Between the thirties and the early 2000s, the state has largely remained within the hands of the Democratic Party at the state level. The state did vote for President Eisenhower in the 1956, but remained firmly under the control of the Democrats, not voting for a Republican again until the 49 state sweeps in 1972 and 1984. Even in 1980 when President Jimmy Carter only won six states, one of them was West Virginia and it was also one of the only ten states that Governor Michael Dukakis won in 1988. After voting twice for Governor Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, West Virginia began to move from the left to the right, voting for Governor George W. Bush in 2000, and voting for the Republican candidate for president in the next four subsequent elections, increasing the margin of victory each time7. Though the state voted for her husband twice, West Virginia is projected to vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by 42 percentage points in 20168. West Virginia was slightly different than Vermont in that it was the presidential vote that eventually affected local politics. After voting for the Republican candidate beginning in 2000, both chambers of the state legislature became controlled by the Republican Party in the 2014 midterm elections. That same year all three of the congressional seats were won by the GOP for the first time since 1924, and the Republicans won a Senate seat for the first time since 1957. Vermont’s transition occurred beginning at the state level and eventually expanding to include its national political stance as well. There are several possible explanations to this 7 John Woolley and Gerhard Peters, “Presidential Elections Data.” The American Presidency Project, University of California,Santa Barbara. November 15, 2016. 8 “West Virginia Election Results:2016.” The New York Times, The New York Times Company. November 9, 2016.
  • 6. McCarthy 6 phenomenon, many of which have been posed by historians and average Americans. The first potential explanation for this change is a shift in the states demographics. There is the common belief espoused by many from political pundits to ordinary citizens who believe the electoral shift occurred in the state because of the influx of New Yorkers moving to the area. The presence of prominent New Yorkers within the state of Vermont has only strengthened this notion as popular ice cream magnates Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield of Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream are both Long Island and Brooklyn supplants and the Independent United States Senator Bernie Sanders is an expatriate from the Empire State910. The perception of this however, may be too simplistic an answer to the question of why this change has happened in the state. A book on the shifting nature of politics in upper New England showed that it was the areas of Vermont that had the highest born in state proportion of residents were the focus of the Democratic gains in the state. Those areas that had high percentage of native Vermonters has the strongest Democratic gains, which strangely enough coincided with the cities and towns with a high population of ethnically English populations. At the time this study was taken, it was the cities with new state residents and those with ethnically French background where the Republican’s were still strong and actually making gains within these areas11. This could suggest a few things, and where the out-of-staters came from becomes an important issue. If they came from the more conservative areas of the country, including neighboring New Hampshire, then that could explain it. If those with French heritage are more 9 “Our History.” Ben and Jerry’s Ice Cream. November 2016. 10 “About Bernie.” Bernie Sanders, United States Senator from Vermont. November 2016. 11 Robert W. Steel, Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northeastern United States: Electoral Realignment, 1952- 1996. University Park, Pennsylvania:The Pennsylvania StateUniversity Press,1998.Pp. 63-65.
  • 7. McCarthy 7 likely to vote Republican, than it could be related to the close proximity of Quebec and any Canadians who emigrated there. Those leaving Canada for the United States generally do so for economic reasons, as many immigrants do, and it would stand to reason that by leaving a much more liberal society in Canada, they would be drawn to the conservative wing of the American political system on economic issues. This could perhaps coincide with the strength of the left in Canada in the 1980s and before with the elections of Pierre Trudeau juxtaposed to the elections of Ronald Reagan in the United States at primarily the same time. Further the anti-Quebec stance that Trudeau took in the face of the Quebec independence referendum, refusing to even acknowledge its legitimacy12. While perhaps not all of the changes in the state’s record have come from an influx of new voters, the study aforementioned was conducted almost twenty years ago and some still have doubts that it has nothing to do with an increase in voters not originally from Vermont. The college towns are very important in Vermont, as one of the most rural and least populated states in the Union; they are a concentration of young voters in an incredibly liberal environment that may also take in students from other states. Though Vermont is the whitest state in the Union, the city of Burlington, Vermont is a member city of the Refugee Resettlement program which is making its largest vote center more ethnically diverse and increasing the likelihood of voting for a Democrat. Also, there is credence to the suggestion that some New Yorkers or those from urban Massachusetts decided to move away from their homes into the upper New England rural regions. There after a “self sorting” took place, and conservatives 12 John English, Just Watch Me: The Life of Pierre Elliot Trudeau Volume Two: 1968-2000. Toronto: Knopf Canada, 2009.Pp. 454.
  • 8. McCarthy 8 attracted to the no tax state of New Hampshire settled there, and liberals decided to go to Vermont instead in the 1960s and 1970s13. Professor Garrison Nelson of the University of Vermont also points to the passage of a state initiative called Act 250, which limited development projects across the state, which in turn appealed to the environmentalists across the country and encouraged them to move there, further pulling the state to the left. The impact of that migration can be seen on the political level, as the outgoing Governor of Vermont, Peter Schumlin was the first native Vermonter in the post in almost forty years14. Though the current makeup of Vermont does not appear likely to vote for a Republican for president in the foreseeable future, statewide they can still be competitive with Schumlin about to be replaced by a Republican governor. While there appears to be some credence to the idea that new Vermonters were influential in the move to the ideological left, but it does not seem to be the case for West Virginia. The Mountain State is not an attraction to Americans inclined toward nomadic tendencies, being one of the poorest states in the Union and the terrain is heavily forested and, as their nicknames suggest, mountainous. West Virginia has the lowest college graduates per capita in the United States and there are many issues with healthcare and home ownership. That being said, West Virginia is perhaps the most “blue collar” state in the country with many residences in the mining industry and other labor intensive occupations. Further, West Virginia is the second most rural state after Vermont with very little urbanization, which has an impact in political 13 Micah Cohen, “’New Vermont’ is Liberal,but‘Old Vermont’ is Still There.” The New York Times, The New York Times Company. October 21, 2012. 14 Micah Cohen, “’New Vermont’ is Liberal,but‘Old Vermont’ is Still There.” The New York Times, The New York Times Company. October 21, 2012.
  • 9. McCarthy 9 considerations. Considering all of these factors, what could have led to the shift in state politics that has made it now so reliable for the Grand Old Party? A possible explanation for the change in both the Mountain State and the Green Mountain State is that the central politics of the state remained much the same, and rather it was the national parties that shifted ideologies and alienated those who previously had been their most solid base of support. Examples of this can be seen in the representatives that were elected to the Congress from Vermont and West Virginia. The top three prominent Vermont Republicans in Congress from the 1960s to the early 2000s, George Aiken, Robert Stafford and Jim Jeffords were all considered moderates or even liberal Republicans when they served. West Virginia’s Senators were similar in that both Democrats Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller were on the moderate side of the Party of Jackson, though Byrd more than Rockefeller. In an ideological lifetime score from GovTrack, Jeffords voting record was to the left of both Rockefeller and Byrd. Similarly, Jeffords predecessor Robert Stafford was rated to the left of Senator Byrd, and former Senator Aiken was rated in the same ideological region as Byrd and Rockefeller’s predecessor Senator Randolph. George Aiken’s western liberals had long battled the conservative easterners within the state’s GOP and beginning in the 1960s he was largely successful in steering the party establishment to the left. Early in Jim Jeffords’ career, he became associated with the Aiken wing of the party when as Attorney General he challenged International Paper Co. over its pollution of Lake Champlain, defying the pro-business elements in the party15. Jeffords would later be the only US House of Representatives member to vote against President Reagan’s 1981 15 Garrison Nelson,“Jim Jeffords: Reluctant Rebel.” Vermont Digger, vtdigger.org. September 14, 2014. Web.
  • 10. McCarthy 10 tax cut bill, also known as the Kemp-Roth tax cuts16. The Senate passed it by voice vote making it unknown whether or not Senator Byrd voted for the cuts or not. However Byrd and Rockefeller, as well as Jim Jeffords (then senator) voted for the 1986 Reagan tax cut17. The unconventionality of these representatives can be seen in other votes as well in Congress, most strikingly in the vicious confirmation votes of Supreme Court nominees. When President Reagan nominated Robert Bork to the Supreme Court in 1987, the fight that occurred in the confirmation hearings resulted in the rejection of Bork as a Supreme Court Justice by a vote of 42-58. Two Democrats voted in favor, but six Republicans voted against including Robert Stafford of Vermont. A similar fight four years later occurred with the Clarence Thomas nomination. Thomas was able to survive by a vote of 52-48, but Jeffords was one of only two Senate Republicans to vote against his confirmation. However, the 1969 fight in the replacement of Abe Fortas to the bench saw a reversal of this, with Nixon’s nominee Clement Haynesworth failing to attain a spot on the bench with a 45-55 vote. West Virginia Senators, Byrd and Randolph voted yea, along with Republican Senators Aiken and Prouty. The follow-up vote for the open seat, with the nominee this time being G. Harold Carswell, was also defeated by a vote of 45-51. Byrd, Randolph and Aiken all voted for Judge Carswell, but Senator Prouty voted against the Nixon nominee. Even the comparably less contentious confirmation of Samuel Alito in 2005 saw Senator Jeffords, now an Independent caucusing with the Democrats, vote against the conservative while Senator Byrd voted for him. These votes on the consent of the potential appointees to the highest bench show the relative fluidity of the representatives in going against the orthodoxy of their political parties. 16 “H.R. 4242 — 97th Congress: Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981.” www.GovTrack.us. 1981.November 30, 2016. 17 “H.R. 3838 — 99th Congress: Tax Reform Act of 1986.” www.GovTrack.us. 1985. November 30, 2016.
  • 11. McCarthy 11 This can be seen in the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which Senators Byrd and Rockefeller voted in favor of18. Again the expected votes of these representatives did not follow what was assumed of these Senators in the case of the 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq which Senator Rockefeller voted in favor of but Senator Jeffords did not19. In 2003 the differences can be seen between Senators Byrd and Jeffords over the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban, which the Democrat Byrd voted yea on the ban and the Independent Jeffords voted nay20. At this point, Senator Jeffords had left the Republican Party and was an Independent caucusing with the Democrats. The 1990s and early 2000s saw a flood of liberal Republicans leaving the GOP and blue-dog conservative Democrats joining it. After the 2000 election the US Senate was split with 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats, but the Republicans held the majority because Republican Vice President Dick Cheney acted as the tie-breaking vote. This Senate makeup lasted for a few months before the White House got into a fight with Senator Jeffords who wanted to keep federal funding for special education in a specific bill and threatened to cross the aisle. Not wanting to be held hostage for the entirety of the 107th Congress, the White House decided to let him walk and give them Democrats control of the upper chamber21. The ideological shift in the parties could be seen with the numerous aisle crossings that occurred in this time period. Liberal Northeast Republicans such as Senator Arlen Specter, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee joining Jeffords in moving to the left while conservatives such as Buddy Roemer, Norm Coleman, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Sonny Perdue and Richard Shelby joined 18 “H.R. 3396 — 104th Congress: Defense of MarriageAct.” www.GovTrack.us. 1996. November 30, 2016. 19 “H.J.Res. 114 — 107th Congress:Authorization for Use of Military ForceAgainstIraq Resolution of 2002.” www.GovTrack.us. 2002.November 30, 2016. 20 “S. 3 — 108th Congress:Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003.” www.GovTrack.us. 2003. November 30, 2016. 21 Peter Baker, Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House. Anchor Publishing, New York. 2013. Print.Pp. 103-105
  • 12. McCarthy 12 the Republicans and even Democrats such as Joe Lieberman and Michael Bloomberg moved to the right in this time period22. This time period shows a fundamental shift in the party identities as they became less moderate and more sectionalized. While the drift of Vermont to the left was better chronicled and less surprising, it was really the 2000 election that showed these true differences. The aim of the Bush-Cheney campaign was to drive out the base voters by appeals to the cultural issues that split the parties, issues such as abortion and gay marriage. This had the effect of marginalizing the moderate and liberal elements within the party and they either did not vote, or decided to vote for Ralph Nader or Vice President Gore. The 2004 election had even more of a cultural focus and the President’s campaign was very successful in painting Kerry as a Massachusetts liberal the way the first President Bush had tagged Michael Dukakis sixteen years before23. Kerry fled to the right of his previous issues to try to compete, but was eventually unsuccessful. However, this tectonic transformation left out many traditional Dewey and Rockefeller Republicans from the Eastern Establishment and by consequence George W. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without taking Vermont, and the first Republican to win without any electoral votes from California. While Vermont had begun to be identified as a liberal state in the years previously, the metamorphosis of the state was solidified in the contentious races of the 2000s. The election of 2000 also saw West Virginia become a solidly Republican state in the presidential election cycles. Bill Clinton won the state twice because of his moderate stances on the issues and the fact that he was a Southern Democrat, as well as his focus on the blue-collar 22 “Politicians who switched parties.” CNN politics, CNN. June 3, 2015. Web. 23 ElaineKamarck,"Can outdated label still hurtKerry?" The Boston Globe, Boston Globe Media Partners LLC. July 25, 2004.
  • 13. McCarthy 13 workers that so populate the state. Clinton’s message of “I feel your pain” resonated with the voters in the Mountain State. The traditional Democratic ties to the labor unions was particularly helpful in a state that had high union membership and higher rates of voters with only a high school degree24. This changed in the election of 2000, where Al Gore, though he was a Southerner himself, seemed to be more a creature of Washington than the Texas Governor. Gore could never shake the image of an elitist who talked down to people rather than the folksy Bush that voters found charming and likeable. What killed Gore in West Virginia, and has since doomed the Democratic nominees of president there, was his stance on the environment and energy particularly the coal industry. As Vice President, Gore became the face of the green and renewable energy lobby, a position he has kept out of office with his global warming crusade and his holy war against fossil fuels25. The coal industry is perhaps the most important jobs sector in the state and the hostility that the Gore campaign exhibited towards one of the state’s main source of income hurt his chances of winning the state greatly26. The entire 2000 campaign can be reexamined with hundreds of what-if propositions, and as with any state, had Gore just flipped this once Democratic mainstay or even his own home state of Tennessee than he would be president. Democrats did not help themselves in West Virginia during the culture wars of the 2000s and the retirement of Jay Rockefeller and death of Robert Byrd has led to a Republican resurgence in the state and the only Democrats who can survive there are those like Joe Manchin, 24 Troy M. Stewart, Richard A. Brisbin,Robert Jay Dilger, Allan S.Hammock, and Christopher Z. Mooney. "West Virginia Politics and Government." (1997): 153-155. 25 Mahita Gajanan,“Al Gore Says He Hopes To Work With Donald Trump To Fight ClimateChange.” Time Magazine, Time Inc.November 9, 2016. 26 Micah Cohen, “In West Virginia,Coal Means More, Party Less.” The New York Times, The New York Times Company. July 3, 2012.
  • 14. McCarthy 14 who hinted that he may switch parties in the Senate or may be in consideration for a cabinet spot in the Trump Administration27. The Democrats did not help themselves in the 2016 election when Hillary Clinton said that she was going to “put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of a business.”28 This antagonism towards the coal industry led to a thorough rejection by the state’s voters in the Democratic primary where they voted for Senator Bernie Sanders, and the presidential election when the voters went overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump in what had once been the archetype of Clinton-ism in the 1990s. What this seems to show, in both Vermont and West Virginia, is that the dramatic transition of voting behaviors in the states may be connected. While there is a case to be made in Vermont about the influx of new voters with alternative viewpoints to those of the traditional Republicans, the better argument is that it was not so much that these two states left their parties as the parties left them. The conservative ascendancy in the GOP that began in the 1970s and continued to calcify support within the party through the 21st Century differs greatly than the party that counted George Aiken, John Chaffee, Jacob Javits and Edward Brooke among its members. While it is possible to say that Vermont has become more liberal in its outlook, it is difficult to argue that it was ever truly conservative the way that conservatism is presently constituted. There is the same issue in West Virginia, as the Democratic Party became increasingly liberal and lost its core support of the downtrodden, blue-collar, union and low-income voters and instead concentrated its “get out the vote” efforts on the urban centers and an amalgamation of cherry picked identity groups through targeted efforts, it ended up demonizing the group that 27 Eric Beech, “Trump consideringDemocratic Senator Manchin for energy secretary.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters Corporation.December 1, 2016. 28 Daniel Strauss,“Clinton haunted by coal country comment.” Politico.com, Politico. May 10, 2016.
  • 15. McCarthy 15 had for so long been the heart of the party. The polarization of both major parties has led to a realignment in the voting blocks, and one can imagine the Democrats of today would shudder at the thought of once counting Zell Miller, Phil Gramm, Nathan Deal, John Connally and John Breaux as members of their party. The energy issue has lost the Democrats elections on all levels in the states of West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and at the moment it has eliminated the chances of them winning West Virginia in a presidential contest for the foreseeable future. If either party looks to retake these states that they have abandoned in the past decades there needs to be a way to incorporate moderating positions in the party and not allow the national stances of the party nominees to poison the well for down ballot candidates. For Democrats to be successful in West Virginia, they need to be able to straddle the coal question and the national stances. For Republicans in Vermont, there needs to be a way to stick to fiscal conservatism without delving too deeply into the cultural conservative traps that would lead to their downfall. Both parties have begun to engage in internecine warfare within their own caucuses, purging nonconformists to their accepted dogmas with vicious bloodletting that stifles alternative viewpoints. If there was one way that this could be rectified, it would need to be done in the nominating process. The issue with primary contests is that generally only the motivated extreme wings of the parties turn out to the primary contests which naturally lead to the choice of ideological purity, and then the average voter complains about his choices in the general election. A return to the convention methods of the past would be more likely to allow for ideological variances. The primary contests could remain for the presidential nominees of the parties, but the extremely low turnout in statewide primary races for offices such as state treasurer or attorney general only leads to the increased possibility of extreme elements to be placed in
  • 16. McCarthy 16 positions of power. While the convention process relies upon a small cadre of “experts” rather than the populace at large, and rightly argued against as an oligarchic form of government, the way the primary process works now could also be argued as oligarchic, when the turnout is only ten percent or lower. Presidential primaries at least have higher turnouts and can be better said to represent the interests of the voting populace, the same cannot be said for almost any primary race across the Union. This change may not occur, but it is worth considering at a time when every voter seems to complain about polarization but no one seems prepared to do anything about it. If there becomes a way for the parties to integrate a wider spectrum of ideas within the “big tent” notion of political parties, whether through reform of the primary process or by some other alteration, than there may yet be hope for the Northeast Republicans and Southern Democrats.
  • 17. McCarthy 17 Works Cited “About Bernie.” Bernie Sanders, United States Senator from Vermont. November 2016. Baker, Peter. Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House. Anchor Publishing, New York. 2013. Print. Pp. 103-105 Beech, Eric. “Trump considering Democratic Senator Manchin for energy secretary.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters Corporation. December 1, 2016. Cohen, Micah. “In West Virginia, Coal Means More, Party Less.” The New York Times, The New York Times Company. July 3, 2012. Cohen, Micah. “’New Vermont’ is Liberal, but ‘Old Vermont’ is Still There.” The New York Times, The New York Times Company. October 21, 2012. English, John. Just Watch Me: The Life of Pierre Elliot Trudeau Volume Two: 1968-2000. Toronto: Knopf Canada, 2009. Pp. 454. “First Wheeling Convention.” West Virginia Archives & History, West Virginia Division of Culture and History. Web. Gajanan, Mahita. “Al Gore Says He Hopes To Work With Donald Trump To Fight Climate Change.” Time Magazine, Time Inc. November 9, 2016. “H.J.Res. 114 — 107th Congress: Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002.” www.GovTrack.us. 2002. November 30, 2016. Holt, Michael F. The Rise and Fall of the American Whig Party. Oxford University Press, 2003.
  • 18. McCarthy 18 Pp. 22-23. “H.R. 3396 — 104th Congress: Defense of Marriage Act.” www.GovTrack.us. 1996. November 30, 2016. “H.R. 3838 — 99th Congress: Tax Reform Act of 1986.” www.GovTrack.us. 1985. November 30, 2016. “H.R. 4242 — 97th Congress: Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981.” www.GovTrack.us. 1981. November 30, 2016. Kamarck, Elaine, “Can outdated label still hurt Kerry?" The Boston Globe, Boston Globe Media Partners LLC. July 25, 2004. Kay, Danny, Bing Crosby, White Christmas. Dir. Michael Curtiz, Irving Berlin. 1954: Paramount Pictures, Film. Nelson, Garrison. “Jim Jeffords: Reluctant Rebel.” Vermont Digger, vtdigger.org. September 14, 2014. Web. “Our History.” Ben and Jerry’s Ice Cream. November 2016. Perlstein, Rick. Before the Storm: Barry Goldwater and the Unmaking of the American Consensus. New York: Nation Books, 2001. Pp. 512. “Politicians who switched parties.” CNN politics, CNN. June 3, 2015. Web. “S. 3 — 108th Congress: Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003.” www.GovTrack.us. 2003. November 30, 2016.
  • 19. McCarthy 19 Steel, Robert W. Changing Patterns of Voting in the Northeastern United States: Electoral Realignment, 1952-1996. University Park, Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1998. Pp. 63-65. Stewart, Troy M., Richard A. Brisbin, Robert Jay Dilger, Allan S. Hammock, and Christopher Z. Mooney. "West Virginia Politics and Government." (1997): 153-155. Daniel Strauss, “Clinton haunted by coal country comment.” Politico.com, Politico. May 10, 2016. "The 14th State." Vermont History Explorer, Vermont Historical Society. November 15, 2016. “West Virginia.” History.com, The History Channel. 2016. Web. Woolley, John and Gerhard Peters, “Presidential Elections Data.” The American Presidency Project, University of California, Santa Barbara. November 15, 2016.