2016 Diamond Dollars Case Competition (SABR Analytics Conference) - Phoenix, AZ Case: Construct a 2016 bullpen from scratch for any given National League team, focusing on that team's quality of starting pitching, defense, home ballpark, division opponents, and other factors.

1. PIRATES
PERFECT
BULLPEN
SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY
BASEBALL STATISTICS AND SABERMETRICS CLUB
Jeremy Losak Joey Weinberg Justin Mattingly Justin Perline Matt Russo

2. AGENDA
1.Schedule Adjustments
2.Park Factors and Linear Weights
3.The Perfect Bullpen
4.Similarity Scores
5.Risk Assessment
6.Our Bullpen

3. SCHEDULE ADJUSTMENTS
Methodology
• Projected plate appearances per inning and innings against bullpen based on a
team’s projected wOBA.

4. Final Projected Plate Appearances
vs Each Team at Each Park
(1,094 Projected PA in Pittsburgh)

5. PARK FACTORS AND
LINEAR WEIGHTS
BB GB FB LD K IFF
-0.108 0.036 -0.125 -0.213 0.186 0.169
Schedule-Adjusted Linear Weights
Schedule-Adjusted Park Factors
1B Park Factor 2B Park Factor 3B Park Factor HR Park Factor FB% Park Factor GB% Park
Factor
LD% Park
Factor
IFF% Park
Factor
1.034 1.041 1.036 0.934 0.974 1.006 1.004 1.038
● Used home/road data for each MLB team to
create both linear weights and park factors PC: Ballparks of Baseball

6. THE “PERFECT” BULLPEN
• Applied linear weights to all bullpens in the last 10 years.
• 2010 Braves bullpen came away with the highest weighted value.
2010 Braves Bullpen
K/9 K-BB% LOB% HR/9 GB% LD% FB% FIP
10.06 (1) 16.2% (2) 74.6% (12) 0.65 (2) 49.7% (1) 17.4% (8) 33% (1) 3.18 (2)
() denotes league rank
PC: SB Nation PC: Talking Chop

7. PLAYER COMBINATIONS
Pick 1 of 4 --> Dellin Betances, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Miller
Pick 1 of 4 --> Zach Britton, Ken Giles, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson
Pick 2 of 12 --> Allen, Familia, Gregerson, Herrera, O’Day, Robertson, Romo, Rosenthal,
Storen, Smith, Fields, Hendriks
Pick 1 of 110 --> All remaining relief pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2015
232,320 Pitcher Combinations!

8. SIMILARITY SCORES
• Z-Scores of wOBA, K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, LD%, IFFB%
• Compared all bullpen combinations against 2010 Braves pen
• Weighted against DRA (Deserved Run Average)
– “DRA controls for the context in which each event of a game
occurred, thereby allowing a more accurate prediction of pitcher
responsibility , particularly in smaller samples.”
(Baseball Prospectus)
• Score reflects best bullpen combination relative to 2010 Braves
2010 Braves Relief Options

9. RISK ASSESSMENT
• PECOTA Percentiles used as a measure of variability
• 50% Projection and 10% Projection Difference in DRA to produce risk ratings
• Individual risk ratings combined with player groupings to create group risk ratings
• When picking our top relief options, we only kept those in the top 25 percentile
Kenley Jansen’s 2016 PECOTA Projection

10. THE BEST BULLPENS

11. #1
Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia,
Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil
Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%
First 294.9 .277 3.17 27.98% 7.92% 55.04% 24.07% 18.41% 2.48%

12. Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%
Second 287.6 .277 3.13 28.97% 7.96% 48.99% 28.18% 19.65% 3.18%
#2
Andrew Miller, Ken Giles, Jeurys
Familia, Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil
#1
Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Jeurys
Familia, Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil
Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle
•Britton is a ground ball machine
–Projected 75.5% GB% leads league
–Consecutive league leader in GB% (2014, 2015)
•#1 Bullpen (with Britton) highest with 55.04% GB
•Giles projected only 45.9% GB%

13. #3
Andrew Miller, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia,
Liam Hendriks, and Brett Cecil
Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%
Third 299.6 .277 3.13 27.17% 7.56% 50.76% 26.31% 19.83% 3.10%
Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%
Fourth 292.3 .277 3.09 28.13% 7.60% 44.84% 30.29% 21.08% 3.79%
#4
Andrew Miller, Ken Giles, Darren O’Day,
Liam Hendriks, and Brett Cecil
O’Day oldest (33)
Projected for lowest GB% (39.7%)
Projected for highest DRA (3.64)
Familia expected to maintain high GB%
Youth and breakout season
9.5 K/9
Liam Hendriks recent success has projection models favoring him this season
Lowest BB/9 of group at 2.3
Nick Turchiaro / USA Today Sports

14. #5
Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia,
Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil
Final Rank IP wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% IFFB%
Fifth 299.9 .277 3.15 28.01% 8.34% 54.51% 24.14% 18.53% 2.83%
Kim Klement / USA Today Sports
 While Betances is projected to have a
higher K%, and thus this rotation is
projected to have a slightly higher K%,
Miller is expected to walk less batters,
and limit baserunners better than
Betances.
 Miller had a lower FIP than Betances in
2015 (2.16 FIP vs. 2.48 FIP)

15. Questions?