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1. “If you don’t own a
home, buy one.
If you own one home,
buy another one.
If you own two homes,
buy a third.
And, lend your
relatives the money to
buy a home.”
– John Paulson 9/27/2010
3. NAR Projections
Mortgage RatesMortgage Rates – 30 year fixed– 30 year fixed
MBA Projections
5.4%
5.8%
National Association of Realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association 10/2010
4. DS News 9/28/2010
Shadow InventoryShadow Inventory
S&P’s assessment of the stretch it will take
the industry to clear the current volume of
distressed properties in the shadows is
about 41 months. That’s up from the 33-
month timeline projected by the agency’s
analysts earlier this year.
According to the agency’s report, the growth
in the shadow inventory is having three
primary effects in the housing market:
1. low liquidation rates artificially skew
the visible supply of distressed
homes available for sale
2. the growing inventory negatively
pressures existing home prices
3. only when the backlog clears, will
market home prices fully correct.
5. Clear CapitalClear Capital - Special Release- Special Release
Clear Capital 10/22/2010
two-month 5.9% price decline
6. Case Shiller Home Price IndexCase Shiller Home Price Index
Standard & Poors Index 10/26/2010
7. "We are at a flex point
in housing valuation,"
said Michael Feder,
President and CEO of
Radar Logic. "With
record supply, already
paltry demand and
systemic threats to a
possible correction, we
remain terribly
concerned about
forward home prices."
RPX Monthly Housing Market Report 10/21/2010
PricesPrices
8. Morgan Stanley expects 2011 home prices to
fall 5% to 10% from this year with four years
of flat prices after that, although "the risk of
slight additional downside in prices,
and extension of the trough to
2012, has increased."
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley
Housing Wire 10/01/2010
9. MacroMarkets 10/2010 SurveySource: KCM 11/2010
Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey
The percentage of experts who saw no price growth for the rest of 2010.
15. The Wall Street JournalThe Wall Street Journal
“Enough with the doom and gloom
about homeownership.”– WSJ 9/16/2010
1. You can get a good deal.
2. Mortgages are cheap.
3. You can save on taxes.
4. It will be yours.
5. You’ll get a better home.
6. It offers some inflation protection.
7. It’s risk capital.
8. It’s forced savings.
9. There is a lot to choose from.
10.Sooner or later, the market will clear.
Wall Street Journal 9/16/2010
16. A Dream House After AllA Dream House After All
Karl CaseKarl Case of Case Shillerof Case Shiller
“It means having a solid and fairly safe
long-term investment that is coupled with
the satisfaction of owning the house they
live in. That dream is still alive…For
people with a realistic version of the
American Dream, buying a house now
can make a lot of sense.”
New York Times 9/1/2010
17. “If you don’t own a
home, buy one.
If you own one home,
buy another one.
If you own two homes,
buy a third.
And, lend your
relatives the money to
buy a home.”
– John Paulson 9/27/2010
18. Fannie Mae: National Housing Survey
70% Say Time to Buy is Now70% Say Time to Buy is Now
Fannie Mae 9/2010
70% of respondents think it is a good
time to buy a house (of which 36% think
it is a very good time to buy), up six
points from January. This is also four
points higher than the 2003
survey – well before home
prices peaked – when 66 %
said it was a good time.
