1. Climate Change,
the Arctic and
International
Security
With John Topping, Founder and President of the Climate
Institute
A lecture for the University of Oklahoma
Inaugural Event of the Global Sustainability Series S
February 19, 2013

2. Climate Change’s Acceleration
S Source: NASA
Source: NASA Image

3. Humanity’s
Emissions
are Playing a
Role
Greenhouse gases &
aerosols are having an
impact on climate

4. S Poses increasing risk:
Climate S enhanced sea level rise
affecting coastal areas and
Change’s island nations
S threat to water resources and
Acceleration agriculture
S a realistic possibility of more
extreme events; swings
―Oklahomans are
between floods and droughts
accustomed to cruel climate.
Frigid winters and searing S possible increased occurrence
summers are often made of severe storms (*science
more unbearable by scouring uncertain on tornadoes)
winds. But even by
Oklahoma standards, it's On a local level in recent
been a year of whipsaw years, The National Weather
weather.‖ Service has determined
90.92% of Oklahoma is in D3
- Los Angeles Times, August (extreme) and D4 (exceptional)
24, 2011 levels. This is the worst
drought Oklahoma has

5. Oklahoma’s Current
Drought Conditions

6. Weather Events and
Climate Variability
S While no single weather related
event — flood, drought, fire or
severe storm — can be
attributed to climate change, it
is prudent to build climate
resilience.
S There is a probability that
investment decisions will need
to be made for water
Tushka, Oklahoma tornado, an resources, agricultural and/or
EF3 which struck the town on April infrastructure planning to offset
14, 2011, during the Mid-April 2011 risks.
tornado outbreak. Shot by Gabe
S National Weather Service
Garfield and Marc Austin of the
Weather Center in Norman
National Weather Service.
places OU at center of

7. Uncertainties
S Pace of change S How do we improve our
understanding of what is at
S Regional implications risk and possible
S Will there be changed
responses?
S Crucial considerations for
frequency of extreme coastal and flood plain
events? planning, water resource
S Severe storms, floods planning,
and droughts infrastructure and building
design, etc.

8. S Not only adverse human or
Forces natural stress affecting
ecosystems or areas in
Occurring which we live.
Together to S Growing ocean acidification.
Accelerate S Depletion of fossil aquifers.
S Land degradation.
Stress
S Destruction of
forests, especially in the
tropical regions.

9. Systems are
Interdependen
t
Protecting the Ogallala Aquifer
for Future Use

10. Some Encouraging Trends
Energy Use &
U.S. Greenhouse Gases Emissions
S Total emissions levels have
dropped almost to 1994 levels
due largely to increased
efficiency and greater use of
renewables.
S Should continue to be amplified
by substitution in U.S. of natural
gas for coal in the utility sector.
S To maximize climate benefits of
coal to gas switch, it is crucial to
minimize methane leaks
from natural gas system.

11. U.S. Position: Opportunity
S How can our energy S Leverage our good fortune as
planning and foreign policy soon-to-be world’s leading energy
promote results that producer; ensure continued
prosperity and catalyze effective
will sustain our national national response to climate
economy, reduce risk of change.
climate disruption, and meld S In natural gas sector: hold
into climate protection overall methane leakage from
natural gas
responses, benefits to extraction, transmission
human health and food and distribution to below 1%.
production?

12. U.S. Opportunities
S Reduce federal and state S Wide political support here. April
regulatory barriers to energy recycling 22, 2009, joint sponsorship of
(cogeneration). successful legislation by Senators
Inhofe, Carper, Boxer and Kerry to
mandate U.S. EPA to develop
S Promote aggressive international options for black carbon
attack on Short- Lived Climate reductions here and abroad.
Forcers that affect climate and S Encourage special focus on
human health and where benefits emission reductions in regions
can be realized soon. such as Arctic, where we may be
at near irreversible climate
tipping points.

13. Global Emission Trends
Climate and Clean Air Challenges
Coalition
S Barrier to be overcome: failure
S Rapid growth of CCAC action of Kyoto Protocol-based trading
on black carbon, systems to incentivize
methane, hydrofluorocarbons and tr these reductions.
opospheric ozone that together
produce as much an effect on climate
change as CO2.
S Reductions will often yield not only
climate benefits but
enhanced human health (BC), and
sometimes economic (recovery for
energy of leaking methane) or safety
(harvesting of methane from coal
mines).

14. Rethinking How We Compare
GHGs
S Common Metric:
1 tonne of methane = 22 tonnes of CO2
S Possible New Metric:
1 tonne of methane = 75 tonnes of CO2
What’s the difference? (Hint: Methane only lasts 12 years)

15. Tropospheric Ozone
S Formed as a secondary product of other emissions
S By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence of NOx
S Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days
S Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m2
S 18% of CO2 effect

16. Methane
S Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of
stability
S Lasts 12 years in atmosphere
S Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m2
S Just over 50% of CO2 effect
S Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane

17. Black Carbon (Soot)
S Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM)
S Absorbs sunlight and heat
S Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks
S Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m2
S 28 – 55% of CO2 effect
S Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas
S Enormous regional increase in warming effect
S Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m2
S Harmful to human respiratory health

18. Regional Effects
• ―Troposphericozone and BC snow albedo effect
contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss
in the Arctic‖ - James Hansen et al. 2005
• Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009)
• Black carbon: 0.5 – 1.4˚C
• Trop. Ozone: 0.2 – 0.4˚C
Shindell estimates that combined
sulfate decrease and BC increase
caused 75% of direct Arctic
warming over past 30 years

19. Benefits from Black Carbon
Reduction
S Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as
emissions drop
S Acute decrease in Arctic warming
S Reducing certain BC emissions will result in:
S Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually
S Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually

20. Warming Effect During 21st Century
Aggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon
8
7
6
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
5
4
3
2
21st Century CO2 only
1
20th Century GHG Emissions
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Credit: MacCracken 2009 YEAR

21. Near-Term Changes in Warming Effect
Black Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming
6 6
Business as Usual Aggressive Reductions
in BC and GHGs
Radiative Forcing (watts per sq meter)
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR YEAR
Credit: MacCracken 2009

22. The Four Crucial Regions
Amazonian Rainforest &
Himalayas Andean Mountains

23. The Four Crucial Regions
Antarctica The Arctic

24. Short-Lived Climate Forcers
S Decisive global action targeting S Amazon
SLCFs the next best step to bide S Amazon land and
time for the regions in danger of conversion forest loss
irreversible damage. may push to point of dieback.
Andes may be affected both by
S Increased efficiency, non or warming and SLCF deposition.
low-carbon fuel sources. Could mean loss of water
resources for tens of millions.
S Antarctic S Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau
S Parts warming rapidly with S Water resources for at least a
potential for adding to sea level
sixth of humanity could be
rise from melting of
glaciers in Greenland and imperiled.
other regions and warming of
upper layers of ocean.

25. South America: Closely
Interconnected Ecosystems
Amazon Rainforest Andes Mountains
S The Amazonian Rainforest is the S Glaciers in the mountains provide
greatest treasure trove of biodiversity water supplies for tens of millions
on the planet. in South America and hydropower
for millions.
S It is disappearing rapidly due to land
conversion for cattle farms, mining and S Rapid glacial melt imperils this
small farmers. water supply.
S Brazilian Scientists (Simoes& S Efforts are underway to install
Evangelista) report that emissions from cleaner cook stoves in many
Andean communities and reduce
burning for land clearing in the black carbon emissions.
Amazon, especially for cattle
farms, may be producing as much as
half of black carbon deposition in the
Antarctic.

26. S Glacial thinning:
Antarctica
Glaciers in Antarctica contain
about 70% of all the fresh
water on Earth; if all were to
melt, global sea levels would
rise over 60 meters — more
than 200 feet.

27. Antarctica
S Although Antarctica is the coldest S There is a modest net loss now
region on Earth, some portions in the from Antarctica, about 150
Antarctic Peninsula and West cubic kilometers each year
Antarctic are among the most (Hansen, 2007) but if this
accelerates it could add significantly
rapidly warming parts of the planet. to global sea level rise.
S Most Antarctic ice loss seems S Deposition of significant quantities of
attributable to interaction with black carbon from fires in
warming waters of the Southern South America and Africa has
Ocean more than to warming on the been detected in Antarctica and
linked to agricultural burning. No
land. linkage has yet been done on
their role in ice loss.

28. The Himalayas

29. Himalayas – Tibetan Plateau
S Provides water supplies for about S Emissions of black
one of every six humans on earth. carbon, especially from diesel
Rapid glacial melt underway that transport and cook
may reduce water availability. stoves, appear as great a factor
as overall global warming in
spurring glacial melting.
S Project Surya seeks to reduce S Indian Supreme Court has
black carbon emissions, save lives mandated that in public transport
and reduce climate forcing through compressed natural gas vehicles
replacement of cook stoves and replace current diesel and other
kerosene lanterns with cleaner
alternatives http://www.projectsur vehicles.
ya.org/

30. The Arctic’s Role
And Functions of the Arctic Climate Action Registry
S

31. The Arctic Crisis
S Scientists have confirmed that
the Arctic is in crisis, and acts
as a bellwether as a sensitive
region.
S At the current rate of
warming, Arctic summers will
be ice-free within five to ten
years, for the first time in 65
million years.
S There will be enormous
disruption to local communities Source: http://www.arcticclimateregistry.org/
and wildlife. But that’s just the
tip of the iceberg—a melting
Arctic will have dire
consequences for the entire

32. Climate Change in the Arctic
Economist, August 28 2012
In September 2012, a new record level of Ice
melt was recorded. At this rate the Arctic
could be ice-free in summer by the end of this
decade.

33. Climate Change in the Arctic
S Melting of the Greenland
ice sheet, contributing to
global sea level rise
 Significant erosion,
threatening villages
 Collapse of whole
ecosystems
Scientists at NASA first thought satellite
 Melting of permafrost readings were a mistake after images
and release of trapped showed 97% surface melt over four days
methane hydrates

34. Chief Causes
S Global Warming
 CO2 and other Kyoto GHGs
S Arctic Regional Contribution (50-70%)
 Methane
 Black Carbon
 Tropospheric Ozone
 Methane Hydrate Pulse
5,000 billion tons trapped ~
all CO2 and CH4 combined

35. Climate Change Impacts
S Displacement of villages due to sea level rise and melting
permafrost
S Public infrastructure damage
S Ecosystem impacts (e.g., new pests, migratory species)
S Food security (e.g., fisheries, subsistence hunting, melting ice
cellars)
S Human health issues (e.g., disease, asthma)

36. Climate Change Impacts
ALASKA
The Government Accountability
Office (GAO) has reported:
S Almost all of Alaska’s 200+
villages have been affected by
flooding and erosion, with 4
requiring relocation
S 31 villages face imminent
threats
S 12 of the 31 villages are
exploring relocation options

37. Locations of Arctic
Indigenous Peoples

38. Arctic Climate Action Registry
(ACAR)
S An effort to incentivize reductions of emissions of
soot, methane and tropospheric ozone forming compounds.
S No other organization in the world is taking action fast enough to
save the Arctic. The Arctic Climate Action Registry will certify
projects that immediately counteract the meltdown in the Arctic
using metrics defined in the new Draft American (ANSI)
Greenhouse Gas Accounting Standard.
S The Arctic Climate Action Registry Network is a social network
consisting of scientists, business leaders, government
officials, educators, and consumers. Its goal is to help members
communicate about taking action to save the Arctic.
S If successful, could be adapted and extended to the
Antarctic, Amazon-Andes and Himalayas.

39. ACAR Vision, Mission
and Strategy
S VISION: Slow down and ultimately
end climate change in the Arctic
region and, in so doing, slow down
climate change around the globe.
S MISSION: Mitigate greenhouse
gases and other climate forcers
affecting the Arctic region.
S STRATEGY: Stimulate projects and
activities in support of our
mission, based on incentives and
market mechanisms, with
measurable progress within the
decade.

40. ACAR Registry Project
Opportunities
Examples
Shipping – Equipping ships with technology to capture black
carbon, and using or purchasing turbine-powered ships.
Forest fires – Boreal forest crown fire suppression management
under Forest Stewardship Council guidelines.
Airlines – Reduced emissions from airline fleets, e.g., some
rerouting of flights, increased fuel efficiency.
Pollution Prevention –Stack emissions captured at electricity
production and other industrial facilities.
Methane Capture – Methane capture for energy generation.
Natural Cycle Enhancement – Micronization of sea water to help
cool the region, i.e., ships generating spray to promote cooling.

41. Significance for
International Security
S Aside from a scramble for energy S Potential unpredictable effects on
resources, there are negative weather patterns and world agriculture
implications of enhanced Greenland at loss of year round Arctic Sea Ice.
melt for U.S. and other major world
cities.

42. Summation & Action Plan
S The focus on the Arctic is S The three other vulnerable
justified and mitigation should regions: Antarctic, Himalayas-
be viewed in a global context. Tibetan Plateau and Amazon-
S e.g., Greenland melting is a Andes, may ultimately be
crucial threat to sea targets of regional SLCF
levels worldwide because focused mitigation strategies.
of annual ice loss of 150 S Why? 150 cubic km annual
cubic km (Hansen). ice loss is also true for
Antarctica (Hansen).

43. Climate Change
and the
International
Stage
Thank you!
Questions/Comments?
Acknowledgments:
Principally Jillian Jordan, thanks
also to Michael MacCracken, John
- Michael Cross, Matt
Vetter, Christopher Philipp and
Linda Brown.
Climate.org& Arctic Climate Action
Registry (ACAR)