The document discusses recurring 40-45 year cycles in culture, society, values, and expression. It notes similarities between the current period and the 1970s/1930s in terms of economic discontent, unpopular presidents, craft/artisanal trends, and social experimentation. It presents a model of recurring 40-45 year cycles moving between internal/relational phases focused on social reform and external/material phases of economic growth. The document speculates on possible trends in the upcoming 2020s including limited government, massive technological innovations, conformity pressures, and emerging market economic focus.
13. • Internal/Relational: The excesses of the previous
decades are brought into question at an individual
level. Real estate values peak. The social fabric
unravels and there is a shifting focus towards social
reform. Young adults become less conformist and
more counter-cultural. (1920’s, 1960’s, 2000’s)
• External/Relational: This is a period of public
unrest and skepticism. Standards of living are
redefined. The economy is in a state of prolonged
stagnation, yet major progress is made in terms of
providing for social equality and environmental
sustainability. Institutions eventually hit the “reset”
button, providing a foundation for new growth
and prosperity. (1930’s, 1970’s, 2010’s)
• External/Material: Is a period of rising optimism.
It is typically a “golden age” period for
conservatism and business. There is privatization,
de-regulation and a less involved government.
(1940s, 1980’s, 2020’s)
• Internal/Material: The focus shifts somewhat
towards the family. Politics are still conservative,
and the economy has stabilized into a period of
predictable economic growth. Wealth and power
becomes more concentrated. Eventually, success
leads to excess – leading to speculative bubbles.
(1950’s, 1990’s, 2030’s)
14. • Values: Material vs. Relational
• Expression: Internal vs. External
Values & Expression Cycle
15. Relational
• Declining social mood
• Reform
• Social Capital
• Uncertainty
• Counter-culture
• Localism/Isolationism
Values Cycle
Material
• Rising social mood
• Growth
• Financial Capital
• Confidence
• Conformity
• Globalism/Aggression
18. A Possible Future –
Previewing the 2020’s
Politics: Smaller, more limited government. Rise of a “big man.”
Science: Massive innovations coming to market based on AI,
smart robotics, ubiquitous computing, personalized genomics,
energy storage technologies. Return of ambitious science projects.
Culture: Careful re-examination of male gender roles (to reach
fruition by 2030’s). Greater pressures toward conformity.
Designers as brands. Digital nomads, urbanization, and the
continued rise of status cities.
Entertainment: More goofball humor and fewer “dark” themes.
Kawaii gets big. Increasingly, the audience chooses outcomes of
stories.
Economy: New bull market after restructuring (repudiation?) of
the U.S. debt. Focus on emerging markets for growth.
19. Thinking about Tomorrow
(Koans for Futurists)
• What is work without employment?
• What is the role of men in a culture with less need
for risk-taking, physicality, or territoriality?
• How does one conform within a post-modern
society?
• What is rare within an economy of abundance?
• What does it mean to be human?
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management and related services for clients nationally.
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