Boost Fertility New Invention Ups Success Rates.pdf
Opening summit for public
1.
2. Opening Summit Better Region
Better Life
seven50.org
@seven50plan
#seven50
3. Opening Summit Agenda Better Region
Better Life
9:00 Registration Opens
10:00 Welcome Addresses
10:15 Victor Dover: “50 Year Plan: The Impact Starts
Now”
10:30 Allison DeFoor: “Nine Generations in Florida (and
Counting)”
10:45 Quick Poll: Participants
11:00 Bob Burchell: “State of the Region and Future
Trends”
4. Opening Summit Agenda Better Region
Better Life
11:20 Bill Spikowski: “The Numbers, and Why They
Matter in Regional Planning”
11:35 Neal Peirce: “Regions Will Define
the Future”
12:45 Shaping the Plan: Working Lunch, Meet with Your
Group
2:15 Quick Poll: Ideas
2:30 Work Group Highlights
2:50 Next Steps
5. Better Region
Better Life
WELCOME
Joe Gillie, Old School Square
6. Better Region
Better Life
WELCOME
Mayor Ferreri, Greenacres
7. Thank you Better Region
Better Life
Exec Committee
Mr. Doug Bournique Ms. Gepsie Metellus
Mr. Doug Bartel The Honorable Tod Mowery
The Honorable Heather Carruthers** Mr. Jack Osterholt
Mr. Art Cobb Ms. Susan E. O’Rourke
Ms. Carla Coleman Mr. Gus Pego
Ms. Sara E. Fain Mr. William Perry
The Honorable Samuel Ferreri The Honorable Raquel Regalado
The Honorable Ed Fielding Ms. Kelly Smallridge
Mr. Kevin J. Foley Mr. Michael Spring
Dr. Dennis P. Gallon Mr. Edwin Swift
The Honorable Suzanne Gunzburger Mr. Norman Taylor
The Honorable Kathryn Hensley Mr. Ramon Trias, AICP
The Honorable Peter O’Bryan Mr. James Wolfe
The Honorable Karen Marcus Mr. Barrington Wright
Dr. Edwin Massey
8. Thank you Better Region
Better Life
Chip LaMarca Broward County Commissioner
Tom Powers City of Coral Springs Vice Mayor
Beam Furr City of Hollywood Commissioner
Patricia Asseff City of Hollywood Commissioner
Patricia Williams City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner
Edwina Coleman City of Lauderdale Lakes Vice Mayor
Benjamin Williams City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner
Gloria Lewis City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner
Wayne Messam City of Miramar Commissioner
Anne Sallee City of Oakland Park Mayor
Shelby Lowe City of Riviera Beach City Councilman
Eula Clarke City of Stuart Commissioner
Sean McCrackine Comm. Jean Monestime, Miami-Dade, Chief Legislative Aide
Dan Liftman Congressman Alcee Hastings, Staff Assistant
Miguel Otero Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, District Director
Wendi Lipsich Office of Congressman Ted Deutch
Victoria Nowlan Fl House of Representatives, Chief Legislative Assistant
Doug Smith Martin County Commissioner
Jean Monestime Miami Dade County County Commissioner
Abby Ross Staff to Rep Berman
Victoria Winslett Staff to Rep Berman
Lori Berman State Representative
Sandy Berman SFRPC Member
9. Better Region
Better Life
WELCOME
Marcela Camblor, AICP, Project Director
10.
11. Dover, Kohl & Partners
Citizen-Based Regional Planning & Visioning
doverkohl.com @DoverKohl
Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company
Planning, Policy, Modeling Tools
dpz.com
Emerge Consulting
Public Outreach
Robert Burchell, PhD, Rutgers University
Economic Analysis
http://policy.rutgers.edu/cupr
Spikowski Planning Associates
Research & Model Ordinances
spikowski.com
12. Criterion Planners
Scenario Modeling and Implementation
crit.com
HDR
Transportation & Infrastructure
hdrinc.com
Hall Planning & Engineering
Multimodal Transportation
hpe-inc.com
Strategic Economics
TOD Strategies
strategiceconomics.com
The Brookings Institution
Economic Advisory Panel
brookings.edu
13. Cardno ENTRIX
Enviro Economics, Ecology, Sustainability & Climate Change
entrix.com
Cardno TBE
Brownfield Redevelopment
tbegroup.com
ROAR Media
Communications
roarmedia.com
Gorman & Associates
Housing Strategy
gormanusa.com
Municipal Code Corporation
Code Integration
municode.com
Paul Vrooman, University of Miami
Public Education
14. Dover-Kohl • Windsor, Indian River County
• Towns, Villages, and Countryside Land Development
Regulations, St. Lucie County
& DPZ • Fort Pierce Waterfront & Corridor Plan
• Downtown Stuart
• South Martin County Regional Plan
• Waterfront Quarter, Jupiter
• Abacoa, Jupiter
30+ years local experience • Lake Okeechobee Regional Plan
50+ SE Florida projects • Seven Cities - The U.S. 1 Corridor, Palm Beach County
• Water Preserve Areas, TCRPC
• Downtown Lake Worth Plan, TCRPC
• Fox Property Study, TCRPC
• Callery Judge Grove, Loxahatchee
• Wellington, Palm Beach County
• PBC Agricultural Reserve
• West Palm Beach Downtown Plan
• Royal Palm Beach Corridor Plan
• North Federal Corridor, Delray Beach
• Charleston Place, Boca Raton
• Davie Downtown Plan
• Mirabella, Miramar
• Western C-9 Basin, Miami-Dade & Broward Counties
• Lake Belt Plan, Miami-Dade County
• Miami Lakes Town Center
• North Miami Beach Bicycle Masterplan
• Aqua, Miami Beach
• Miami Springs Downtown Plan
• Downtown Doral
• Miami 21
• UM Miller School of Medicine, Miami
• Miami-Dade County TND Ordinance
• Miami-Dade County Agricultural & Rural Area Study
• South Miami Hometown Plan
• Downtown Kendall
• Downtown Homestead Action Plan
• Bluewater Carpet Cottages, Tavernier
15.
16. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit
50 Year Plan: The
Impact Starts
Now
Victor Dover FAICP
29. “Here is the giant, plastic,
metal, and unbreakable
glass city of the 21st
century. A city of science,
of atomic power, of space
travel, and of high culture.”
Frank R. Paul – Amazing Stories, 1939
47. “Make no little plans….
1909 Plan of Chicago – Burnham & Bennett
48. …They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably themselves will not
be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that
a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are
gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency.
Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that would
stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Think
big.
Daniel Burnham (probably…)
58. How would you describe Southeast Florida today?
Paradise (5 votes, 2%)
A good place to live, getting better everyday (70 votes, 31%)
A work in progress with a long way to go (119 votes, 53%)
Needs work and not getting better (16 votes, 7%)
Getting worse everyday (11 votes, 4%)
Total Votes: 221
Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
59.
60.
61. CO2 and density
CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per
North Redmond Queen Anne
12.5
12
person
11.5
11
10.5
10
0-4 4-7 7 - 10 10 -15 15+
Net Residential Density
(housing units per residential acre)
Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
62. CO2 and connectivity
North Redmond Queen Anne
CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per
13
12
person
11
10
9
8
0 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.3 0.3 - 0.4 0.4+
Intersections per acre
Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
63. CO2 and convenient retail
North Redmond Queen Anne
CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per
12.5
12
11.5
person
11
10.5
10
9.5
0 1-2 3-9 10 - 29 30 - 165
# of Neighborhood Retail Parcels
Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
64
64. national call to action
obesity trends among US adults
No Data <10% 10%-14% 15-19% 20% 25%
Source: Mokdad AH
CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
Source: Marla Hollander
67. L.U.D.M. of the F.L.U.E. of the C.D.M.P. per F.S.L.G.C.P.A. of 1985
68. In the future I would like Southeast Florida to be:
More economically resilient (144 votes, 63%)
More walkable (95 votes, 42%)
More bikable (78 votes, 34%)
Safer for children (49 votes, 21%)
More environmentally sustainable (108 votes, 47%)
More prepared for changes to climate (60 votes, 26%)
More sociable/convivial (40 votes, 17%)
More equitable, open to diverse communities (58 votes, 25%)
More attractive aesthetically (55 votes, 24%)
More unified as a region (112 votes, 49%)
Total Voters: 226 Total Votes: 799 Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
69. In the future I would like Southeast Florida to be:
More economically resilient (144 votes, 63%)
More walkable (95 votes, 42%)
More bikable (78 votes, 34%)
Safer for children (49 votes, 21%)
More environmentally sustainable (108 votes, 47%)
More prepared for changes to climate (60 votes, 26%)
More sociable/convivial (40 votes, 17%)
More equitable, open to diverse communities (58 votes, 25%)
More attractive aesthetically (55 votes, 24%)
More unified as a region (112 votes, 49%)
Total Voters: 226 Total Votes: 799 Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
84. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit
Nine Generations
(and counting)
Allison DeFoor
85.
86. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit
State of the Region and
Future Trends
Bob Burchell, Rutgers University
87. The Demographic State of the
Region and Future Trends:
The Effects of Larger Geographies
Seven 50 Opening Summit
11:00 a.m. to 11:20 a.m.
Wednesday 27 June 2012
Robert W. Burchell, Ph.D.
88
89. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
In 2050, world population will reach 9.1 billion. (1)
• India will be the most populous country in the world.
Projections show that by 2020, of 100 people:
• 56 will be from Asia (19 Chinese, 17 Indian*);
• 16 from Africa (13 from Sub-Saharan Africa);
• 13 from the Western Hemisphere (4 from U.S.);
• 7 from Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union;
• 5 from Western Europe; 3 from the Middle East. (2)
World population growth is trending downward. (1)
• Most growth will be in less-developed countries;
developed countries’ growth will turn negative by
2030. (1) * 21 and 22, respectively, by 2050.
90
90. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
In 1950, the population of Europe and Russia
constituted about 22% of world population; by 2050,
these countries will constitute just 7.5%. (2)
Russia’s population will contract over the next 50 years
from 141 million today to 120 million– 2060 will be
equivalent to 1960. This decline will result from both
lower fertility rates and higher mortality rates. (11)
Male unemployment is noticeable in high-income
economies (>$12,200 income, per capita). (12)
By 2050, within a population of over 1.3 billion, China
will have over 300 million people over age 65, with
limited social infrastructure to care for that population.
(11, 2)
91
91. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
By 2050, India will have 1.7 billion people. The majority
is expected to be living in some of the most
impoverished conditions in the world. (11)
Many families in India (and to a greater extent, in Africa)
do not participate in a cash economy. Commodities are
grown and bartered; children’s work has value. (15)
In Africa, nearly all of the growth increase is expected to
be in the sub-Saharan region, where there is expected
to be virtually no economic growth, and where AIDS will
significantly impact life expectancy. (2)
Thus, one should not assume that projected economic
and demographic growth of China and India, or Russia
and Japan, would relegate the U.S. to a second-class
economic power by 2050. (11, 2) 92
92. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
Japan’s population is affected by declining fertility and
increasing life spans. Fertility declines relate to women
marrying later, or not at all. Life expectancy is 7 years
longer for women and increasing. (13)
World: Working age population (15-64) will decrease in
Europe (Italy -39%; Germany -18%; Britain -12%;
France -11%) Russia (-8%) and Japan (-3%); it will
increase in the United States (+33%) and Canada
(+17%). This is related to immigration policies. (4, 2)
In Europe, more coordinated immigration policies,
resembling those of the United States, could enable this
geographic area to address its declining rate of natural
increase. (29)
93
94. Demographic Trends in the United States
National and Regional
• The U.S. population will be about 380 million in
2040, and 420 million in 2060. (5,39)
• From 2000 (281.4M) to 2010 (308.7M), U.S.
population increased by 27.3 million: 52.4 % was in
the South; 32.0% in the West; 10.8% in the
Midwest; and 6.3% in the Northeast. (16)
• Average growth over the period 2000-2010 in the
U.S. was 9.7%. The South increased by 14.3%; the
West by 13.8%; the Midwest by 3.3%; and the
Northeast by 3.2%. (16)
• These regional patterns are projected to continue
for the next 50 years at a reduced rate of growth. (16)
95
95. Demographic Trends in the United States
Immigration
• ½ of 2000-2010 growth in the U.S. is due to
immigration; half is due to natural increase. (7)
• Until the 1960s, immigration to the U.S. was
primarily restricted to Europeans. (17, 23)
• The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act
eliminated non-European quotas, and opened the
doors to immigrants from all parts of the world. (17, 23)
• By 2050, for the first time, Caucasian Americans will
cease to be a majority (47%). (8)
• Differential fertility rates: U.S. average, 2.0;
Hispanics, 2.4; non-Hispanic blacks, 2.1; non-
Hispanic whites and Asians, 1.8; will affect
population growth in different geographic areas at
any scale. (8)
96
96. Demographic Trends in the United States
Multigenerational Households (MGHs)
• Definition I - Three generations, one roof—3.7% of all
households in 2000; 4.4% of all households in 2010. (9)
• Definition II – Definition I, plus households comprised
of grandparents/grandchildren, and households
comprised of parents/adult children: 16.2% of all
households, 2008. (18)
• Immigrants from Latin America and Asia are especially
likely to have these sorts of living arrangements. (18)
• In 2010, the share of the U.S. population that lived in
MGHs (16.2%) was its highest since the 1960s (when
it had reached 15%). This rate was up from a low of
12% in the 1980s. (18)
• MGH rate will not fall until 2050 due to economic
incapacities of GEN X (1965-81)/GEN Y (82-1999). (18) 97
97. Demographic Trends in the United States
Multigenerational Households (MGHs)
• Both older women (> 65) and younger men (25-34)
have a 20% chance of living in an MGH. (18)
• The poverty rate (2009) for all people living in MGHs
was 11.5%, versus a poverty rate of 14.6% for people in
all other types of households. (10)
• For unemployed people, those living in MGHs had a
poverty rate of 17.5%, while those with other living
arrangements had a poverty rate of 30.3%. (10)
• Multi-generational households will diminish in 2050 as
baby-boomers’ wealth transfers to their children. (18)
• There is also a multigenerational workforce made up of
pre-Boomers, Boomers, Gen X, and Gen Y. (19)
98
98. Demographic Trends in the United States
Marrying-Out (of Race/Ethnicity)
• In 2010, marrying out of one’s ethnicity reached an
all-time high in the U.S. Among newlyweds, 9% of
whites, 17% of blacks, 26% of Hispanics, and 28% of
Asians married members of other racial/ethnic
groups. (20)
• White-Asian couples (2010) had significantly higher
average household incomes ($71,000) than all other
pairings; their incomes were higher than those of
white ($60,000) and Asian couples ($62,000). (20)
• The rate of marrying-out varies by geography. It is
highest in the West (22%), followed by the South and
Northeast (13%) and the Midwest (11%) (2010). (20) 99
99. Demographic Trends in the United States
The Dominance of the Elderly
• In 1970, seniors comprised 10% of the U.S. population
(20m); by 2010, they comprised 13% (40m); in 2050,
they will comprise 21% (85m). (21)
• Households without children (including seniors) were
half of the population (52%) in 1960; two-thirds (68%) in
2005; and will be three-quarters (74%) by 2040. (22)
• Households without children will represent 90% of the
growth of households from 2005-2040. (22)
• Every day in the decade of 2010-2020, 8,000 people will
turn 65; from 2020-2030 that rate will be 8,250. (23)
100
100. Demographic Trends in the United States
Women’s Workforce Presence
• The gender ratio of college admissions in the United
States is 60% female and 40% male. (23)
• In married-couple households, women now provide
47% of the overall household income. (23)
• In 2008, 63.3% of women were breadwinners or co-
breadwinners; in 1967 that figure was 27.7%. (23)
• Today, men versus women are more adversely
affected by unemployment: men bore 80% of the job
losses during the recent economic downturn. So bad
for men, it has been called the “man-cession”. (23)
101
102. Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
World Trends – Population Flows
• Increase in growth in Russian and Japanese
tourism/residency. Europe linked to euro (+now). (31,32)
• Some growth in Chinese tourism/residency from later
working-age/affluent population. Asian immigrants now
outnumber those from South/Central America. (14, 29, 40)
• Sustained growth in immigration from South/Central
America, and the Caribbean. (29)
• Counter-trend: Economic growth in Brazil, Argentina, and
Mexico could draw workers from across Latin America,
diverting them from reaching the U.S. Opening up of Cuba
could also produce a counter-trend from the U.S. (29) 103
103. Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
U.S. Trends – Population Flows
• Florida was one of the five fastest/largest growing states
for most of 70 years. 2040-26m; 2060-31m. (6)
• Population growth in Florida slowed or was negative
during recession; 2011 Census releases show return to
growth with SE leading (38)
• The Sunbelt (inc. South) will continue to garner the largest
component of growth through 2060 (25), and Florida will be
one of 9-11 U.S. super-regions. (24)
• The South will get increased Hispanic immigration through
2060. Aging Hispanic immigrants will have different social-
service needs than aging Northern migrants. (16)
104
104. Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
U.S. Trends – Marrying-out-Increasing Average Age
• Marrying-out trends will affect Southeast Florida—41%
of intermarriages are white/Hispanic couples. (23)
• Florida (5th nationally) and Southeast Florida have
relatively high percentages of elderly, and both will have
higher percentages of seniors in 2030. (27)
• Southeast Florida’s population had been getting younger,
in contrast to its history as an aging region; this trend will
be reversed by retirement of Baby Boomers. (28)
• Overall in SE Fla., elderly 23.3% of population in 2030
(16.6% 2010); 28.4% Treasure Coast; 20.7% South Fla. (29)
105
105. Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
U.S. Trends – Gender Changes
• The college gender ratio will hit Southeast Florida as
more Hispanic families enter the mainstream. (34)
• Women will reverse representation trends on private/
public boards as their education/wealth increase. (37)
• Woman’s ascendance in Florida, and within Southeast
Florida, could likely exceed national trends. (35)
• Women in Southeast Florida will continue with their
own blue collar employment (health, service), but will
also move into male white collar employment, as well
as its hierarchy. (36)
106
106. Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
Southeast Florida Trends – South/North Immigration
• Miami-Dade, and less-so Broward, will continue to be
numerically dominated by south/north immigration.(30)
• Immigration will be largely from South/Central America
and the Caribbean.
• Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River will have larger
percent increases in S/N immigration. (30)
• Increase of foreign born in all S. E. Fla. counties.
• Southeast Florida, older; foreign-born, older. (30)
• The tug-of-war between immigration and migration will
be won by immigration in terms of numbers. Migration
plus general aging will continue to increase overall age. (30)
107
107. Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
Southeast Florida Trends – North/South Migration
• Florida – 19M population 2011; SE Florida, 6.2M
(2011) (29)
• Continued loss of northern migration to other states,
Middle, Northwest, and Northeast Florida. (29)
• North to south migration will be concentrated more in
Indian River, Martin, and Palm Beach counties; less in
St. Lucie, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe counties. (29)
• Tourism, then northern migration to Southeast
Florida, will pick-up an Eastern European-former
Soviet Union component who are relatively new U.S.
workers/citizens. (31)
108
108. Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
Southeast Florida Trends – Natural Increase/Job Base
• Natural increase in the non-Caucasian Hispanic and black
populations, especially in Miami-Dade, Broward, St. Lucie
counties. (23) Per capita income may be lower in Southeast
Florida but higher than the U.S. and Florida. (29)
• Southeast Florida may grow slower than Florida as a
whole but faster than the U.S./most southern states. (29)
• Middle Florida will increase in job base and pull
economic growth from the Southeast Florida region. (29)
• Southeast Florida will experience growing trade with
South/Central America and the Caribbean;
unemployment initially high (<10%-2012) but region
poised for recovery. (3, 29)
109
122. Indicators: Measurements that
provide information about past and
current trends to assist community
leaders in making decisions that affect
future outcomes.
Benchmarks: Quantifiable
targets that crystalize community
aspirations. Indicators can be used to
measure progress over time in achieving
these targets.
Marilyn Monroe is found dead on August 5th after apparently overdosing on sleeping pills The first Kmart department store opens in Garden City, MichiganJohn H. Glenn, Jr., becomes first American to orbit the earth during Friendship 7 orbit. Jamaica gains indepenedence
Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material