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Opening Summit   Better Region
                    Better Life




 seven50.org

@seven50plan

  #seven50
Opening Summit Agenda                   Better Region
                                                        Better Life




 9:00   Registration Opens

10:00   Welcome Addresses
10:15   Victor Dover: “50 Year Plan: The Impact Starts
        Now”
10:30   Allison DeFoor: “Nine Generations in Florida (and
        Counting)”

10:45   Quick Poll: Participants

11:00   Bob Burchell: “State of the Region and Future
        Trends”
Opening Summit Agenda                 Better Region
                                                   Better Life




11:20   Bill Spikowski: “The Numbers, and Why They
        Matter in Regional Planning”

11:35   Neal Peirce: “Regions Will Define
        the Future”
12:45   Shaping the Plan: Working Lunch, Meet with Your
        Group
 2:15   Quick Poll: Ideas
 2:30   Work Group Highlights
 2:50   Next Steps
Better Region
                                  Better Life




                WELCOME




Joe Gillie, Old School Square
Better Region
                              Better Life




               WELCOME




Mayor Ferreri, Greenacres
Thank you                         Better Region
                                                                 Better Life



        Exec Committee
Mr. Doug Bournique                   Ms. Gepsie Metellus
Mr. Doug Bartel                      The Honorable Tod Mowery
The Honorable Heather Carruthers**   Mr. Jack Osterholt
Mr. Art Cobb                         Ms. Susan E. O’Rourke
Ms. Carla Coleman                    Mr. Gus Pego
Ms. Sara E. Fain                     Mr. William Perry
The Honorable Samuel Ferreri         The Honorable Raquel Regalado
The Honorable Ed Fielding            Ms. Kelly Smallridge
Mr. Kevin J. Foley                   Mr. Michael Spring
Dr. Dennis P. Gallon                 Mr. Edwin Swift
The Honorable Suzanne Gunzburger     Mr. Norman Taylor
The Honorable Kathryn Hensley        Mr. Ramon Trias, AICP
The Honorable Peter O’Bryan          Mr. James Wolfe
The Honorable Karen Marcus           Mr. Barrington Wright
Dr. Edwin Massey
Thank you                                            Better Region
                                                                                  Better Life

      Chip LaMarca     Broward County Commissioner
       Tom Powers      City of Coral Springs Vice Mayor
         Beam Furr     City of Hollywood Commissioner
     Patricia Asseff   City of Hollywood Commissioner
  Patricia Williams    City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner
  Edwina Coleman       City of Lauderdale Lakes Vice Mayor
Benjamin Williams      City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner
       Gloria Lewis    City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner
   Wayne Messam        City of Miramar Commissioner
        Anne Sallee    City of Oakland Park Mayor
       Shelby Lowe     City of Riviera Beach City Councilman
        Eula Clarke    City of Stuart Commissioner
 Sean McCrackine       Comm. Jean Monestime, Miami-Dade, Chief Legislative Aide
       Dan Liftman     Congressman Alcee Hastings, Staff Assistant
      Miguel Otero     Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, District Director
     Wendi Lipsich     Office of Congressman Ted Deutch
   Victoria Nowlan     Fl House of Representatives, Chief Legislative Assistant
        Doug Smith     Martin County Commissioner
  Jean Monestime       Miami Dade County County Commissioner
         Abby Ross     Staff to Rep Berman
 Victoria Winslett     Staff to Rep Berman
       Lori Berman     State Representative
    Sandy Berman       SFRPC Member
Better Region
                                            Better Life




               WELCOME




Marcela Camblor, AICP, Project Director
Dover, Kohl & Partners
         Citizen-Based Regional Planning & Visioning
               doverkohl.com      @DoverKohl



   Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company
               Planning, Policy, Modeling Tools
                          dpz.com



            Emerge Consulting
                      Public Outreach


Robert Burchell, PhD, Rutgers University
                      Economic Analysis
                http://policy.rutgers.edu/cupr



    Spikowski Planning Associates
               Research & Model Ordinances
                      spikowski.com
Criterion Planners
    Scenario Modeling and Implementation
                  crit.com


                 HDR
       Transportation & Infrastructure
                hdrinc.com


Hall Planning & Engineering
          Multimodal Transportation
                hpe-inc.com


   Strategic Economics
               TOD Strategies
          strategiceconomics.com


 The Brookings Institution
          Economic Advisory Panel
              brookings.edu
Cardno ENTRIX
Enviro Economics, Ecology, Sustainability & Climate Change
                       entrix.com


                 Cardno TBE
                Brownfield Redevelopment
                     tbegroup.com


                ROAR Media
                    Communications
                     roarmedia.com


        Gorman & Associates
                    Housing Strategy
                    gormanusa.com


  Municipal Code Corporation
                     Code Integration
                      municode.com


Paul Vrooman, University of Miami
                    Public Education
Dover-Kohl                   • Windsor, Indian River County
                             • Towns, Villages, and Countryside Land Development
                               Regulations, St. Lucie County

& DPZ                        • Fort Pierce Waterfront & Corridor Plan
                             • Downtown Stuart
                             • South Martin County Regional Plan
                             • Waterfront Quarter, Jupiter
                             • Abacoa, Jupiter
30+ years local experience   • Lake Okeechobee Regional Plan
50+ SE Florida projects      • Seven Cities - The U.S. 1 Corridor, Palm Beach County
                             • Water Preserve Areas, TCRPC
                             • Downtown Lake Worth Plan, TCRPC
                             • Fox Property Study, TCRPC
                             • Callery Judge Grove, Loxahatchee
                             • Wellington, Palm Beach County
                             • PBC Agricultural Reserve
                             • West Palm Beach Downtown Plan
                             • Royal Palm Beach Corridor Plan
                             • North Federal Corridor, Delray Beach
                             • Charleston Place, Boca Raton
                             • Davie Downtown Plan
                             • Mirabella, Miramar
                             • Western C-9 Basin, Miami-Dade & Broward Counties
                             • Lake Belt Plan, Miami-Dade County
                             • Miami Lakes Town Center
                             • North Miami Beach Bicycle Masterplan
                             • Aqua, Miami Beach
                             • Miami Springs Downtown Plan
                             • Downtown Doral
                             • Miami 21
                             • UM Miller School of Medicine, Miami
                             • Miami-Dade County TND Ordinance
                             • Miami-Dade County Agricultural & Rural Area Study
                             • South Miami Hometown Plan
                             • Downtown Kendall
                             • Downtown Homestead Action Plan
                             • Bluewater Carpet Cottages, Tavernier
SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit




50 Year Plan: The
Impact Starts
Now

Victor Dover FAICP
2062
2012
1962
it’s not very long?
1962




           Palm Beach




Key West   Fort Lauderdale
1962
Cuban Missile Crisis




Hurricane Dona
Chevrolet – Coral Gables




National Airlines – Miami
1962
The Jackie Gleason Show
1962
1962


       Streets




       Neighborhoods
“Here is the giant, plastic,
metal, and unbreakable
glass city of the 21st
century. A city of science,
of atomic power, of space
travel, and of high culture.”




         Frank R. Paul – Amazing Stories, 1939
Disney Magic Highway USA




Seattle World’s Fair
it’s plenty of time?
Sebastian, Indian River County 1968
Sebastian, Indian River County 2012
Hillsboro Blvd




Deerfield Beach, Broward County 1968
Hillsboro Blvd
                                       I-95




Deerfield Beach, Broward County 2012
Kendall Drive




Miami Dade County 1968
Kendall Drive




Miami Dade County 2012
confidence.
1733
Oglethorpe Plan for Savannah,
Lines drawn on the ground last for generations, longer than buildings
Savannah, GA
1791
Plan for Washington, DC
1909
“Make no little plans….




1909 Plan of Chicago – Burnham & Bennett
…They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably themselves will not
be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that
a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are
gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency.
Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that would
stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Think
big.

                                                     Daniel Burnham (probably…)
1921
1928
“All development is a public-
private partnership”
      1970s-80s
1962
2012
new era
How would you describe Southeast Florida today?
 Paradise (5 votes, 2%)

 A good place to live, getting better everyday (70 votes, 31%)

 A work in progress with a long way to go (119 votes, 53%)

 Needs work and not getting better (16 votes, 7%)

 Getting worse everyday (11 votes, 4%)




Total Votes: 221
                                                             Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
CO2 and density
  CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per



                                      North Redmond                         Queen Anne
                               12.5

                                12
          person




                               11.5

                                11

                               10.5

                                10
                                        0-4           4-7          7 - 10       10 -15         15+
                                                        Net Residential Density
                                                  (housing units per residential acre)

                                              Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
CO2 and connectivity

                                    North Redmond                           Queen Anne
  CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per



                               13

                               12
          person




                               11

                               10

                               9

                               8
                                    0 - 0.1       0.1 - 0.2     0.2 - 0.3      0.3 - 0.4       0.4+
                                                        Intersections per acre


                                              Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
CO2 and convenient retail

                                      North Redmond                                  Queen Anne
  CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per




                               12.5
                                12
                               11.5
         person




                                11
                               10.5
                                10
                                9.5
                                         0             1-2          3-9         10 - 29      30 - 165
                                                      # of Neighborhood Retail Parcels


                                                Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
                                                                                                  64
national call to action
obesity trends among US adults




No Data       <10%       10%-14%       15-19%    20%   25%


Source: Mokdad AH
CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
Source: Marla Hollander
the great convergence




Zimmerman/Volk Associates
the great convergence
L.U.D.M. of the F.L.U.E. of the C.D.M.P. per F.S.L.G.C.P.A. of 1985
In the future I would like Southeast Florida to be:
 More economically resilient (144 votes, 63%)

 More walkable (95 votes, 42%)

 More bikable (78 votes, 34%)

 Safer for children (49 votes, 21%)

 More environmentally sustainable (108 votes, 47%)

 More prepared for changes to climate (60 votes, 26%)

 More sociable/convivial (40 votes, 17%)

 More equitable, open to diverse communities (58 votes, 25%)

 More attractive aesthetically (55 votes, 24%)

 More unified as a region (112 votes, 49%)

Total Voters: 226 Total Votes: 799                      Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
In the future I would like Southeast Florida to be:
 More economically resilient (144 votes, 63%)

 More walkable (95 votes, 42%)

 More bikable (78 votes, 34%)

 Safer for children (49 votes, 21%)

 More environmentally sustainable (108 votes, 47%)

 More prepared for changes to climate (60 votes, 26%)

 More sociable/convivial (40 votes, 17%)

 More equitable, open to diverse communities (58 votes, 25%)

 More attractive aesthetically (55 votes, 24%)

 More unified as a region (112 votes, 49%)

Total Voters: 226 Total Votes: 799                      Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
2014
four summits
models: trend,
  and…?
data warehouse
6 workgroups
engage online
start the
conversation
SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit




Nine Generations
(and counting)



Allison DeFoor
SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit




State of the Region and
Future Trends



Bob Burchell, Rutgers University
The Demographic State of the
   Region and Future Trends:
The Effects of Larger Geographies


      Seven 50 Opening Summit
       11:00 a.m. to 11:20 a.m.
       Wednesday 27 June 2012

        Robert W. Burchell, Ph.D.
                                    88
Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
In 2050, world population will reach 9.1 billion. (1)
   • India will be the most populous country in the world.
Projections show that by 2020, of 100 people:
   • 56 will be from Asia (19 Chinese, 17 Indian*);
   • 16 from Africa (13 from Sub-Saharan Africa);
   • 13 from the Western Hemisphere (4 from U.S.);
   • 7 from Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union;
   • 5 from Western Europe; 3 from the Middle East. (2)
World population growth is trending downward. (1)
   • Most growth will be in less-developed countries;
     developed countries’ growth will turn negative by
     2030. (1)                              * 21 and 22, respectively, by 2050.
                                                                             90
Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
 In 1950, the population of Europe and Russia
 constituted about 22% of world population; by 2050,
 these countries will constitute just 7.5%. (2)
 Russia’s population will contract over the next 50 years
 from 141 million today to 120 million– 2060 will be
 equivalent to 1960. This decline will result from both
 lower fertility rates and higher mortality rates. (11)
Male unemployment is noticeable in high-income
 economies (>$12,200 income, per capita). (12)
By 2050, within a population of over 1.3 billion, China
 will have over 300 million people over age 65, with
 limited social infrastructure to care for that population.
  (11, 2)


                                                              91
Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
By 2050, India will have 1.7 billion people. The majority
 is expected to be living in some of the most
 impoverished conditions in the world. (11)
Many families in India (and to a greater extent, in Africa)
 do not participate in a cash economy. Commodities are
 grown and bartered; children’s work has value. (15)
In Africa, nearly all of the growth increase is expected to
 be in the sub-Saharan region, where there is expected
 to be virtually no economic growth, and where AIDS will
 significantly impact life expectancy. (2)
Thus, one should not assume that projected economic
 and demographic growth of China and India, or Russia
 and Japan, would relegate the U.S. to a second-class
 economic power by 2050. (11, 2)                             92
Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
Japan’s population is affected by declining fertility and
 increasing life spans. Fertility declines relate to women
 marrying later, or not at all. Life expectancy is 7 years
 longer for women and increasing. (13)
World: Working age population (15-64) will decrease in
 Europe (Italy -39%; Germany -18%; Britain -12%;
 France -11%) Russia (-8%) and Japan (-3%); it will
 increase in the United States (+33%) and Canada
 (+17%). This is related to immigration policies. (4, 2)
In Europe, more coordinated immigration policies,
 resembling those of the United States, could enable this
 geographic area to address its declining rate of natural
 increase. (29)
                                                             93
Demographic Trends in the United States
Demographic Trends in the United States
 National and Regional
 • The U.S. population will be about 380 million in
    2040, and 420 million in 2060. (5,39)
 • From 2000 (281.4M) to 2010 (308.7M), U.S.
    population increased by 27.3 million: 52.4 % was in
    the South; 32.0% in the West; 10.8% in the
    Midwest; and 6.3% in the Northeast. (16)
 • Average growth over the period 2000-2010 in the
    U.S. was 9.7%. The South increased by 14.3%; the
    West by 13.8%; the Midwest by 3.3%; and the
    Northeast by 3.2%. (16)
 • These regional patterns are projected to continue
    for the next 50 years at a reduced rate of growth. (16)
                                                          95
Demographic Trends in the United States
 Immigration
 • ½ of 2000-2010 growth in the U.S. is due to
    immigration; half is due to natural increase. (7)
 • Until the 1960s, immigration to the U.S. was
    primarily restricted to Europeans. (17, 23)
 • The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act
    eliminated non-European quotas, and opened the
    doors to immigrants from all parts of the world. (17, 23)
 • By 2050, for the first time, Caucasian Americans will
    cease to be a majority (47%). (8)
 • Differential fertility rates: U.S. average, 2.0;
    Hispanics, 2.4; non-Hispanic blacks, 2.1; non-
    Hispanic whites and Asians, 1.8; will affect
    population growth in different geographic areas at
    any scale. (8)
                                                            96
Demographic Trends in the United States
 Multigenerational Households (MGHs)
 • Definition I - Three generations, one roof—3.7% of all
   households in 2000; 4.4% of all households in 2010. (9)
 • Definition II – Definition I, plus households comprised
   of grandparents/grandchildren, and households
   comprised of parents/adult children: 16.2% of all
   households, 2008. (18)
 • Immigrants from Latin America and Asia are especially
   likely to have these sorts of living arrangements. (18)
 • In 2010, the share of the U.S. population that lived in
   MGHs (16.2%) was its highest since the 1960s (when
   it had reached 15%). This rate was up from a low of
   12% in the 1980s. (18)
 • MGH rate will not fall until 2050 due to economic
   incapacities of GEN X (1965-81)/GEN Y (82-1999). (18) 97
Demographic Trends in the United States
Multigenerational Households (MGHs)
 • Both older women (> 65) and younger men (25-34)
   have a 20% chance of living in an MGH. (18)
 • The poverty rate (2009) for all people living in MGHs
   was 11.5%, versus a poverty rate of 14.6% for people in
   all other types of households. (10)
 • For unemployed people, those living in MGHs had a
   poverty rate of 17.5%, while those with other living
   arrangements had a poverty rate of 30.3%. (10)
 • Multi-generational households will diminish in 2050 as
   baby-boomers’ wealth transfers to their children. (18)
 • There is also a multigenerational workforce made up of
   pre-Boomers, Boomers, Gen X, and Gen Y. (19)
                                                       98
Demographic Trends in the United States
Marrying-Out (of Race/Ethnicity)
 • In 2010, marrying out of one’s ethnicity reached an
   all-time high in the U.S. Among newlyweds, 9% of
   whites, 17% of blacks, 26% of Hispanics, and 28% of
   Asians married members of other racial/ethnic
   groups. (20)
 • White-Asian couples (2010) had significantly higher
   average household incomes ($71,000) than all other
   pairings; their incomes were higher than those of
   white ($60,000) and Asian couples ($62,000). (20)
 • The rate of marrying-out varies by geography. It is
   highest in the West (22%), followed by the South and
   Northeast (13%) and the Midwest (11%) (2010). (20) 99
Demographic Trends in the United States
 The Dominance of the Elderly
  • In 1970, seniors comprised 10% of the U.S. population
    (20m); by 2010, they comprised 13% (40m); in 2050,
    they will comprise 21% (85m). (21)
  • Households without children (including seniors) were
    half of the population (52%) in 1960; two-thirds (68%) in
    2005; and will be three-quarters (74%) by 2040. (22)
  • Households without children will represent 90% of the
    growth of households from 2005-2040. (22)
  • Every day in the decade of 2010-2020, 8,000 people will
    turn 65; from 2020-2030 that rate will be 8,250. (23)
                                                        100
Demographic Trends in the United States
 Women’s Workforce Presence
  • The gender ratio of college admissions in the United
    States is 60% female and 40% male. (23)
  • In married-couple households, women now provide
    47% of the overall household income. (23)
  • In 2008, 63.3% of women were breadwinners or co-
    breadwinners; in 1967 that figure was 27.7%. (23)
  • Today, men versus women are more adversely
    affected by unemployment: men bore 80% of the job
    losses during the recent economic downturn. So bad
    for men, it has been called the “man-cession”. (23)

                                                       101
Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
 World Trends – Population Flows
• Increase in growth in Russian and Japanese
  tourism/residency. Europe linked to euro (+now). (31,32)
• Some growth in Chinese tourism/residency from later
  working-age/affluent population. Asian immigrants now
  outnumber those from South/Central America. (14, 29, 40)
• Sustained growth in immigration from South/Central
  America, and the Caribbean. (29)
• Counter-trend: Economic growth in Brazil, Argentina, and
  Mexico could draw workers from across Latin America,
  diverting them from reaching the U.S. Opening up of Cuba
  could also produce a counter-trend from the U.S. (29) 103
Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
 U.S. Trends – Population Flows
• Florida was one of the five fastest/largest growing states
  for most of 70 years. 2040-26m; 2060-31m. (6)
• Population growth in Florida slowed or was negative
  during recession; 2011 Census releases show return to
  growth with SE leading (38)
• The Sunbelt (inc. South) will continue to garner the largest
  component of growth through 2060 (25), and Florida will be
  one of 9-11 U.S. super-regions. (24)
• The South will get increased Hispanic immigration through
  2060. Aging Hispanic immigrants will have different social-
  service needs than aging Northern migrants. (16)
                                                             104
Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
 U.S. Trends – Marrying-out-Increasing Average Age
• Marrying-out trends will affect Southeast Florida—41%
  of intermarriages are white/Hispanic couples. (23)
• Florida (5th nationally) and Southeast Florida have
  relatively high percentages of elderly, and both will have
  higher percentages of seniors in 2030. (27)
• Southeast Florida’s population had been getting younger,
  in contrast to its history as an aging region; this trend will
  be reversed by retirement of Baby Boomers. (28)
• Overall in SE Fla., elderly 23.3% of population in 2030
  (16.6% 2010); 28.4% Treasure Coast; 20.7% South Fla. (29)
                                                            105
Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
 U.S. Trends – Gender Changes
• The college gender ratio will hit Southeast Florida as
  more Hispanic families enter the mainstream. (34)
• Women will reverse representation trends on private/
  public boards as their education/wealth increase. (37)
• Woman’s ascendance in Florida, and within Southeast
  Florida, could likely exceed national trends. (35)
• Women in Southeast Florida will continue with their
  own blue collar employment (health, service), but will
  also move into male white collar employment, as well
  as its hierarchy. (36)

                                                       106
Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
 Southeast Florida Trends – South/North Immigration
• Miami-Dade, and less-so Broward, will continue to be
  numerically dominated by south/north immigration.(30)
• Immigration will be largely from South/Central America
  and the Caribbean.
• Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River will have larger
  percent increases in S/N immigration. (30)
• Increase of foreign born in all S. E. Fla. counties.
• Southeast Florida, older; foreign-born, older. (30)
• The tug-of-war between immigration and migration will
  be won by immigration in terms of numbers. Migration
  plus general aging will continue to increase overall age. (30)
                                                           107
Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
 Southeast Florida Trends – North/South Migration
• Florida – 19M population 2011; SE Florida, 6.2M
  (2011) (29)
• Continued loss of northern migration to other states,
  Middle, Northwest, and Northeast Florida. (29)
• North to south migration will be concentrated more in
  Indian River, Martin, and Palm Beach counties; less in
  St. Lucie, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe counties. (29)
• Tourism, then northern migration to Southeast
  Florida, will pick-up an Eastern European-former
  Soviet Union component who are relatively new U.S.
  workers/citizens. (31)
                                                       108
Implications of Demographic Trends
for Southeast Florida
 Southeast Florida Trends – Natural Increase/Job Base
• Natural increase in the non-Caucasian Hispanic and black
  populations, especially in Miami-Dade, Broward, St. Lucie
  counties. (23) Per capita income may be lower in Southeast
  Florida but higher than the U.S. and Florida. (29)
• Southeast Florida may grow slower than Florida as a
  whole but faster than the U.S./most southern states. (29)
• Middle Florida will increase in job base and pull
  economic growth from the Southeast Florida region. (29)
• Southeast Florida will experience growing trade with
  South/Central America and the Caribbean;
  unemployment initially high (<10%-2012) but region
  poised for recovery. (3, 29)
                                                        109
Endnotes (1)
1.    www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm
2.    https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/Demo_Trends_For_Web.pdf
3.    www.thewealthreport.net/The-Wealth-Report-2012.pdf
4.    www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/FS_ageing.pdf
5.    http://www.macfound.org/media/article_pdfs/FULL_REPORT.PDF
6.    http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/content/florida-county-population-projections
7.    www.cis.org/2000-2010-record-setting-decade-of-immigration
8.    www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births
9.    www.therepublic.com/view/story/a6eceed37547df963197eb9cf1016b/IN--Exchange-Multigenerational-
      Households
10.   www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/10/03/fighting-poverty-in-a-bad-economy-americans-move-in-with-relatives
11.   http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/international_population/cb11-116.html
12.   www.tradingeconomics.com/high-income/long-term-unemployment-wb-data.html
13.   www.forbes.com/2010/06/14/japan-population-aging-business-oxford-analytica.html
14.   http://www.wttc.org/research/economic-impact-research/regional-reports/asia-pacific/
15.   http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/12appdrft/approach_12plan.pdf
16.   www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf
17.   www.thenagain.info/webchron/usa/immigrationact.html
18.   http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/03/18/the-return-of-the-multi-generational-family-household/
19.   http://assets.aarp.org/www.aarp.org_/cs/misc/leading_a_multigenerational_workforce.pdf
20.   http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1616/american-marriage-interracial-interethnic



                                                                                                          110
Endnotes (2)
21.   http://www.flickr.com/photos/usgao/5509657762/
22.   www.epa.gov/aging/resources/presentations/2008_1028_nelson_reconstruction.pdf
23.   www.kenan-flagler.unc.edu/~/media/files/kenaninstitute/UNC_KenanInstitute_2010Census
24.   www.floridafuturessurvey.com/2009/10/demographic-trends.html
25.   www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/sun-belts-comeback
26.   www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2011/12/22/the-sun-belts-comeback
27.   www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/census-shows-fewer-seniors-some-south-florida-cities
28.   www.heraldtribune.com/article/20110818/wire/110819592/-1/news?p=2&+c=pg
29.   http://www.slideshare.net/Jacqueshart/se-florida-demograghic-trends-dick-ogburn
30.   http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2011-03-21/news/fl-census-change-20110318_1_whites-communities-dick-
      ogburn
31.   http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/south-florida-travel/2012/05/29/russias-aeroflot-to-start-flights-to-miami-in-
      october/
32.   http://www.miami.us.emb-japan.go.jp/en/bilateral.html
33.   http://www.travelandleisure.com/slideshows/top-10-asia-spas
34.   http://www.alligator.org/news/campus/article_206135ea-3bb0-11df-9902-001cc4c002e0.html
35.   http://www.bpwfl.org/
36.   http://flwbc.org/
37.   http://www.theglasshammer.com/news/2009/02/19/breaking-the-glass-ceiling-in-florida/
38.   http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/04/05/census-figures-show-people-once-again-moving-to-s-florida/
39.   http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/usa-sees-flattest-growth-population-1940s
40.   http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2010-03-05/business/fl-china-tourism-20100305_1_visit-florida-chinese-travel-
      overseas-trip
                                                                                                                111
SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit




The Numbers, and Why
They Matter



Bill Spikowski, FAICP
Regional Transportation
climate change
“lidar” remote sensing
Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT)   drive everywhere?
Indicators:         Measurements that
provide information about past and
current trends to assist community
leaders in making decisions that affect
future outcomes.


Benchmarks:               Quantifiable
targets that crystalize community
aspirations. Indicators can be used to
measure progress over time in achieving
these targets.
Austin Region
Maryland
but what if:
 energy prices rise?
 federal government expenditures drop?
Florida
Florida
but what if:
 energy prices rise dramatically?
 migration of people and capital shifts?
 sea-level rise affects coastal communities?
SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit




Regions Will Define the
Future



Neal Peirce, Citistates Group
Opening Summit    Better Region
                         Better Life




 Shaping the Plan:
  Working Lunch,
Meet With Your Group
Education, Workforce & Econ Development
Gymnasium

Development Patterns
Gymnasium

Environment, Natural Resources & Agriculture
Gymnasium (Upstairs)

Climate Resiliency
Classroom 2

Community Assets & Culture
Classroom 6

Inclusive Regional Leadership & Equity
Studio 2
SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit




Lightning Round:
Workgroup Highlights



Clarence Anthony
Better Region
               Better Life




NEXT STEPS
Better Region
              Better Life




THANK YOU

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Opening summit for public

  • 1.
  • 2. Opening Summit Better Region Better Life seven50.org @seven50plan #seven50
  • 3. Opening Summit Agenda Better Region Better Life 9:00 Registration Opens 10:00 Welcome Addresses 10:15 Victor Dover: “50 Year Plan: The Impact Starts Now” 10:30 Allison DeFoor: “Nine Generations in Florida (and Counting)” 10:45 Quick Poll: Participants 11:00 Bob Burchell: “State of the Region and Future Trends”
  • 4. Opening Summit Agenda Better Region Better Life 11:20 Bill Spikowski: “The Numbers, and Why They Matter in Regional Planning” 11:35 Neal Peirce: “Regions Will Define the Future” 12:45 Shaping the Plan: Working Lunch, Meet with Your Group 2:15 Quick Poll: Ideas 2:30 Work Group Highlights 2:50 Next Steps
  • 5. Better Region Better Life WELCOME Joe Gillie, Old School Square
  • 6. Better Region Better Life WELCOME Mayor Ferreri, Greenacres
  • 7. Thank you Better Region Better Life Exec Committee Mr. Doug Bournique Ms. Gepsie Metellus Mr. Doug Bartel The Honorable Tod Mowery The Honorable Heather Carruthers** Mr. Jack Osterholt Mr. Art Cobb Ms. Susan E. O’Rourke Ms. Carla Coleman Mr. Gus Pego Ms. Sara E. Fain Mr. William Perry The Honorable Samuel Ferreri The Honorable Raquel Regalado The Honorable Ed Fielding Ms. Kelly Smallridge Mr. Kevin J. Foley Mr. Michael Spring Dr. Dennis P. Gallon Mr. Edwin Swift The Honorable Suzanne Gunzburger Mr. Norman Taylor The Honorable Kathryn Hensley Mr. Ramon Trias, AICP The Honorable Peter O’Bryan Mr. James Wolfe The Honorable Karen Marcus Mr. Barrington Wright Dr. Edwin Massey
  • 8. Thank you Better Region Better Life Chip LaMarca Broward County Commissioner Tom Powers City of Coral Springs Vice Mayor Beam Furr City of Hollywood Commissioner Patricia Asseff City of Hollywood Commissioner Patricia Williams City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner Edwina Coleman City of Lauderdale Lakes Vice Mayor Benjamin Williams City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner Gloria Lewis City of Lauderdale Lakes Commissioner Wayne Messam City of Miramar Commissioner Anne Sallee City of Oakland Park Mayor Shelby Lowe City of Riviera Beach City Councilman Eula Clarke City of Stuart Commissioner Sean McCrackine Comm. Jean Monestime, Miami-Dade, Chief Legislative Aide Dan Liftman Congressman Alcee Hastings, Staff Assistant Miguel Otero Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, District Director Wendi Lipsich Office of Congressman Ted Deutch Victoria Nowlan Fl House of Representatives, Chief Legislative Assistant Doug Smith Martin County Commissioner Jean Monestime Miami Dade County County Commissioner Abby Ross Staff to Rep Berman Victoria Winslett Staff to Rep Berman Lori Berman State Representative Sandy Berman SFRPC Member
  • 9. Better Region Better Life WELCOME Marcela Camblor, AICP, Project Director
  • 10.
  • 11. Dover, Kohl & Partners Citizen-Based Regional Planning & Visioning doverkohl.com @DoverKohl Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company Planning, Policy, Modeling Tools dpz.com Emerge Consulting Public Outreach Robert Burchell, PhD, Rutgers University Economic Analysis http://policy.rutgers.edu/cupr Spikowski Planning Associates Research & Model Ordinances spikowski.com
  • 12. Criterion Planners Scenario Modeling and Implementation crit.com HDR Transportation & Infrastructure hdrinc.com Hall Planning & Engineering Multimodal Transportation hpe-inc.com Strategic Economics TOD Strategies strategiceconomics.com The Brookings Institution Economic Advisory Panel brookings.edu
  • 13. Cardno ENTRIX Enviro Economics, Ecology, Sustainability & Climate Change entrix.com Cardno TBE Brownfield Redevelopment tbegroup.com ROAR Media Communications roarmedia.com Gorman & Associates Housing Strategy gormanusa.com Municipal Code Corporation Code Integration municode.com Paul Vrooman, University of Miami Public Education
  • 14. Dover-Kohl • Windsor, Indian River County • Towns, Villages, and Countryside Land Development Regulations, St. Lucie County & DPZ • Fort Pierce Waterfront & Corridor Plan • Downtown Stuart • South Martin County Regional Plan • Waterfront Quarter, Jupiter • Abacoa, Jupiter 30+ years local experience • Lake Okeechobee Regional Plan 50+ SE Florida projects • Seven Cities - The U.S. 1 Corridor, Palm Beach County • Water Preserve Areas, TCRPC • Downtown Lake Worth Plan, TCRPC • Fox Property Study, TCRPC • Callery Judge Grove, Loxahatchee • Wellington, Palm Beach County • PBC Agricultural Reserve • West Palm Beach Downtown Plan • Royal Palm Beach Corridor Plan • North Federal Corridor, Delray Beach • Charleston Place, Boca Raton • Davie Downtown Plan • Mirabella, Miramar • Western C-9 Basin, Miami-Dade & Broward Counties • Lake Belt Plan, Miami-Dade County • Miami Lakes Town Center • North Miami Beach Bicycle Masterplan • Aqua, Miami Beach • Miami Springs Downtown Plan • Downtown Doral • Miami 21 • UM Miller School of Medicine, Miami • Miami-Dade County TND Ordinance • Miami-Dade County Agricultural & Rural Area Study • South Miami Hometown Plan • Downtown Kendall • Downtown Homestead Action Plan • Bluewater Carpet Cottages, Tavernier
  • 15.
  • 16. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit 50 Year Plan: The Impact Starts Now Victor Dover FAICP
  • 17. 2062
  • 18. 2012
  • 19. 1962
  • 21. 1962 Palm Beach Key West Fort Lauderdale
  • 22. 1962
  • 24. Chevrolet – Coral Gables National Airlines – Miami
  • 25. 1962
  • 27. 1962
  • 28. 1962 Streets Neighborhoods
  • 29. “Here is the giant, plastic, metal, and unbreakable glass city of the 21st century. A city of science, of atomic power, of space travel, and of high culture.” Frank R. Paul – Amazing Stories, 1939
  • 30. Disney Magic Highway USA Seattle World’s Fair
  • 32.
  • 33. Sebastian, Indian River County 1968
  • 34. Sebastian, Indian River County 2012
  • 35. Hillsboro Blvd Deerfield Beach, Broward County 1968
  • 36. Hillsboro Blvd I-95 Deerfield Beach, Broward County 2012
  • 39.
  • 41. 1733
  • 42. Oglethorpe Plan for Savannah, Lines drawn on the ground last for generations, longer than buildings
  • 44. 1791
  • 46. 1909
  • 47. “Make no little plans…. 1909 Plan of Chicago – Burnham & Bennett
  • 48. …They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency. Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that would stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Think big. Daniel Burnham (probably…)
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. 1921
  • 52. 1928
  • 53.
  • 54. “All development is a public- private partnership” 1970s-80s
  • 55. 1962
  • 56. 2012
  • 58. How would you describe Southeast Florida today? Paradise (5 votes, 2%) A good place to live, getting better everyday (70 votes, 31%) A work in progress with a long way to go (119 votes, 53%) Needs work and not getting better (16 votes, 7%) Getting worse everyday (11 votes, 4%) Total Votes: 221 Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61. CO2 and density CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per North Redmond Queen Anne 12.5 12 person 11.5 11 10.5 10 0-4 4-7 7 - 10 10 -15 15+ Net Residential Density (housing units per residential acre) Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
  • 62. CO2 and connectivity North Redmond Queen Anne CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per 13 12 person 11 10 9 8 0 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.3 0.3 - 0.4 0.4+ Intersections per acre Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005
  • 63. CO2 and convenient retail North Redmond Queen Anne CO2 (KG) -- mean daily per 12.5 12 11.5 person 11 10.5 10 9.5 0 1-2 3-9 10 - 29 30 - 165 # of Neighborhood Retail Parcels Source: LUTAQH final report, King County ORTP, 2005 64
  • 64. national call to action obesity trends among US adults No Data <10% 10%-14% 15-19% 20% 25% Source: Mokdad AH CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Source: Marla Hollander
  • 67. L.U.D.M. of the F.L.U.E. of the C.D.M.P. per F.S.L.G.C.P.A. of 1985
  • 68. In the future I would like Southeast Florida to be: More economically resilient (144 votes, 63%) More walkable (95 votes, 42%) More bikable (78 votes, 34%) Safer for children (49 votes, 21%) More environmentally sustainable (108 votes, 47%) More prepared for changes to climate (60 votes, 26%) More sociable/convivial (40 votes, 17%) More equitable, open to diverse communities (58 votes, 25%) More attractive aesthetically (55 votes, 24%) More unified as a region (112 votes, 49%) Total Voters: 226 Total Votes: 799 Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
  • 69. In the future I would like Southeast Florida to be: More economically resilient (144 votes, 63%) More walkable (95 votes, 42%) More bikable (78 votes, 34%) Safer for children (49 votes, 21%) More environmentally sustainable (108 votes, 47%) More prepared for changes to climate (60 votes, 26%) More sociable/convivial (40 votes, 17%) More equitable, open to diverse communities (58 votes, 25%) More attractive aesthetically (55 votes, 24%) More unified as a region (112 votes, 49%) Total Voters: 226 Total Votes: 799 Seven50.org as of June 22, 2012
  • 70. 2014
  • 72. models: trend, and…?
  • 75.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
  • 81.
  • 83.
  • 84. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit Nine Generations (and counting) Allison DeFoor
  • 85.
  • 86. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit State of the Region and Future Trends Bob Burchell, Rutgers University
  • 87. The Demographic State of the Region and Future Trends: The Effects of Larger Geographies Seven 50 Opening Summit 11:00 a.m. to 11:20 a.m. Wednesday 27 June 2012 Robert W. Burchell, Ph.D. 88
  • 88. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad
  • 89. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad In 2050, world population will reach 9.1 billion. (1) • India will be the most populous country in the world. Projections show that by 2020, of 100 people: • 56 will be from Asia (19 Chinese, 17 Indian*); • 16 from Africa (13 from Sub-Saharan Africa); • 13 from the Western Hemisphere (4 from U.S.); • 7 from Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union; • 5 from Western Europe; 3 from the Middle East. (2) World population growth is trending downward. (1) • Most growth will be in less-developed countries; developed countries’ growth will turn negative by 2030. (1) * 21 and 22, respectively, by 2050. 90
  • 90. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad  In 1950, the population of Europe and Russia constituted about 22% of world population; by 2050, these countries will constitute just 7.5%. (2)  Russia’s population will contract over the next 50 years from 141 million today to 120 million– 2060 will be equivalent to 1960. This decline will result from both lower fertility rates and higher mortality rates. (11) Male unemployment is noticeable in high-income economies (>$12,200 income, per capita). (12) By 2050, within a population of over 1.3 billion, China will have over 300 million people over age 65, with limited social infrastructure to care for that population. (11, 2) 91
  • 91. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad By 2050, India will have 1.7 billion people. The majority is expected to be living in some of the most impoverished conditions in the world. (11) Many families in India (and to a greater extent, in Africa) do not participate in a cash economy. Commodities are grown and bartered; children’s work has value. (15) In Africa, nearly all of the growth increase is expected to be in the sub-Saharan region, where there is expected to be virtually no economic growth, and where AIDS will significantly impact life expectancy. (2) Thus, one should not assume that projected economic and demographic growth of China and India, or Russia and Japan, would relegate the U.S. to a second-class economic power by 2050. (11, 2) 92
  • 92. Demographic Trends in Countries Abroad Japan’s population is affected by declining fertility and increasing life spans. Fertility declines relate to women marrying later, or not at all. Life expectancy is 7 years longer for women and increasing. (13) World: Working age population (15-64) will decrease in Europe (Italy -39%; Germany -18%; Britain -12%; France -11%) Russia (-8%) and Japan (-3%); it will increase in the United States (+33%) and Canada (+17%). This is related to immigration policies. (4, 2) In Europe, more coordinated immigration policies, resembling those of the United States, could enable this geographic area to address its declining rate of natural increase. (29) 93
  • 93. Demographic Trends in the United States
  • 94. Demographic Trends in the United States  National and Regional • The U.S. population will be about 380 million in 2040, and 420 million in 2060. (5,39) • From 2000 (281.4M) to 2010 (308.7M), U.S. population increased by 27.3 million: 52.4 % was in the South; 32.0% in the West; 10.8% in the Midwest; and 6.3% in the Northeast. (16) • Average growth over the period 2000-2010 in the U.S. was 9.7%. The South increased by 14.3%; the West by 13.8%; the Midwest by 3.3%; and the Northeast by 3.2%. (16) • These regional patterns are projected to continue for the next 50 years at a reduced rate of growth. (16) 95
  • 95. Demographic Trends in the United States  Immigration • ½ of 2000-2010 growth in the U.S. is due to immigration; half is due to natural increase. (7) • Until the 1960s, immigration to the U.S. was primarily restricted to Europeans. (17, 23) • The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act eliminated non-European quotas, and opened the doors to immigrants from all parts of the world. (17, 23) • By 2050, for the first time, Caucasian Americans will cease to be a majority (47%). (8) • Differential fertility rates: U.S. average, 2.0; Hispanics, 2.4; non-Hispanic blacks, 2.1; non- Hispanic whites and Asians, 1.8; will affect population growth in different geographic areas at any scale. (8) 96
  • 96. Demographic Trends in the United States  Multigenerational Households (MGHs) • Definition I - Three generations, one roof—3.7% of all households in 2000; 4.4% of all households in 2010. (9) • Definition II – Definition I, plus households comprised of grandparents/grandchildren, and households comprised of parents/adult children: 16.2% of all households, 2008. (18) • Immigrants from Latin America and Asia are especially likely to have these sorts of living arrangements. (18) • In 2010, the share of the U.S. population that lived in MGHs (16.2%) was its highest since the 1960s (when it had reached 15%). This rate was up from a low of 12% in the 1980s. (18) • MGH rate will not fall until 2050 due to economic incapacities of GEN X (1965-81)/GEN Y (82-1999). (18) 97
  • 97. Demographic Trends in the United States Multigenerational Households (MGHs) • Both older women (> 65) and younger men (25-34) have a 20% chance of living in an MGH. (18) • The poverty rate (2009) for all people living in MGHs was 11.5%, versus a poverty rate of 14.6% for people in all other types of households. (10) • For unemployed people, those living in MGHs had a poverty rate of 17.5%, while those with other living arrangements had a poverty rate of 30.3%. (10) • Multi-generational households will diminish in 2050 as baby-boomers’ wealth transfers to their children. (18) • There is also a multigenerational workforce made up of pre-Boomers, Boomers, Gen X, and Gen Y. (19) 98
  • 98. Demographic Trends in the United States Marrying-Out (of Race/Ethnicity) • In 2010, marrying out of one’s ethnicity reached an all-time high in the U.S. Among newlyweds, 9% of whites, 17% of blacks, 26% of Hispanics, and 28% of Asians married members of other racial/ethnic groups. (20) • White-Asian couples (2010) had significantly higher average household incomes ($71,000) than all other pairings; their incomes were higher than those of white ($60,000) and Asian couples ($62,000). (20) • The rate of marrying-out varies by geography. It is highest in the West (22%), followed by the South and Northeast (13%) and the Midwest (11%) (2010). (20) 99
  • 99. Demographic Trends in the United States  The Dominance of the Elderly • In 1970, seniors comprised 10% of the U.S. population (20m); by 2010, they comprised 13% (40m); in 2050, they will comprise 21% (85m). (21) • Households without children (including seniors) were half of the population (52%) in 1960; two-thirds (68%) in 2005; and will be three-quarters (74%) by 2040. (22) • Households without children will represent 90% of the growth of households from 2005-2040. (22) • Every day in the decade of 2010-2020, 8,000 people will turn 65; from 2020-2030 that rate will be 8,250. (23) 100
  • 100. Demographic Trends in the United States  Women’s Workforce Presence • The gender ratio of college admissions in the United States is 60% female and 40% male. (23) • In married-couple households, women now provide 47% of the overall household income. (23) • In 2008, 63.3% of women were breadwinners or co- breadwinners; in 1967 that figure was 27.7%. (23) • Today, men versus women are more adversely affected by unemployment: men bore 80% of the job losses during the recent economic downturn. So bad for men, it has been called the “man-cession”. (23) 101
  • 101. Implications of Demographic Trends for Southeast Florida
  • 102. Implications of Demographic Trends for Southeast Florida  World Trends – Population Flows • Increase in growth in Russian and Japanese tourism/residency. Europe linked to euro (+now). (31,32) • Some growth in Chinese tourism/residency from later working-age/affluent population. Asian immigrants now outnumber those from South/Central America. (14, 29, 40) • Sustained growth in immigration from South/Central America, and the Caribbean. (29) • Counter-trend: Economic growth in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico could draw workers from across Latin America, diverting them from reaching the U.S. Opening up of Cuba could also produce a counter-trend from the U.S. (29) 103
  • 103. Implications of Demographic Trends for Southeast Florida  U.S. Trends – Population Flows • Florida was one of the five fastest/largest growing states for most of 70 years. 2040-26m; 2060-31m. (6) • Population growth in Florida slowed or was negative during recession; 2011 Census releases show return to growth with SE leading (38) • The Sunbelt (inc. South) will continue to garner the largest component of growth through 2060 (25), and Florida will be one of 9-11 U.S. super-regions. (24) • The South will get increased Hispanic immigration through 2060. Aging Hispanic immigrants will have different social- service needs than aging Northern migrants. (16) 104
  • 104. Implications of Demographic Trends for Southeast Florida  U.S. Trends – Marrying-out-Increasing Average Age • Marrying-out trends will affect Southeast Florida—41% of intermarriages are white/Hispanic couples. (23) • Florida (5th nationally) and Southeast Florida have relatively high percentages of elderly, and both will have higher percentages of seniors in 2030. (27) • Southeast Florida’s population had been getting younger, in contrast to its history as an aging region; this trend will be reversed by retirement of Baby Boomers. (28) • Overall in SE Fla., elderly 23.3% of population in 2030 (16.6% 2010); 28.4% Treasure Coast; 20.7% South Fla. (29) 105
  • 105. Implications of Demographic Trends for Southeast Florida  U.S. Trends – Gender Changes • The college gender ratio will hit Southeast Florida as more Hispanic families enter the mainstream. (34) • Women will reverse representation trends on private/ public boards as their education/wealth increase. (37) • Woman’s ascendance in Florida, and within Southeast Florida, could likely exceed national trends. (35) • Women in Southeast Florida will continue with their own blue collar employment (health, service), but will also move into male white collar employment, as well as its hierarchy. (36) 106
  • 106. Implications of Demographic Trends for Southeast Florida  Southeast Florida Trends – South/North Immigration • Miami-Dade, and less-so Broward, will continue to be numerically dominated by south/north immigration.(30) • Immigration will be largely from South/Central America and the Caribbean. • Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River will have larger percent increases in S/N immigration. (30) • Increase of foreign born in all S. E. Fla. counties. • Southeast Florida, older; foreign-born, older. (30) • The tug-of-war between immigration and migration will be won by immigration in terms of numbers. Migration plus general aging will continue to increase overall age. (30) 107
  • 107. Implications of Demographic Trends for Southeast Florida  Southeast Florida Trends – North/South Migration • Florida – 19M population 2011; SE Florida, 6.2M (2011) (29) • Continued loss of northern migration to other states, Middle, Northwest, and Northeast Florida. (29) • North to south migration will be concentrated more in Indian River, Martin, and Palm Beach counties; less in St. Lucie, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe counties. (29) • Tourism, then northern migration to Southeast Florida, will pick-up an Eastern European-former Soviet Union component who are relatively new U.S. workers/citizens. (31) 108
  • 108. Implications of Demographic Trends for Southeast Florida  Southeast Florida Trends – Natural Increase/Job Base • Natural increase in the non-Caucasian Hispanic and black populations, especially in Miami-Dade, Broward, St. Lucie counties. (23) Per capita income may be lower in Southeast Florida but higher than the U.S. and Florida. (29) • Southeast Florida may grow slower than Florida as a whole but faster than the U.S./most southern states. (29) • Middle Florida will increase in job base and pull economic growth from the Southeast Florida region. (29) • Southeast Florida will experience growing trade with South/Central America and the Caribbean; unemployment initially high (<10%-2012) but region poised for recovery. (3, 29) 109
  • 109. Endnotes (1) 1. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm 2. https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/Demo_Trends_For_Web.pdf 3. www.thewealthreport.net/The-Wealth-Report-2012.pdf 4. www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/FS_ageing.pdf 5. http://www.macfound.org/media/article_pdfs/FULL_REPORT.PDF 6. http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/content/florida-county-population-projections 7. www.cis.org/2000-2010-record-setting-decade-of-immigration 8. www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births 9. www.therepublic.com/view/story/a6eceed37547df963197eb9cf1016b/IN--Exchange-Multigenerational- Households 10. www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/10/03/fighting-poverty-in-a-bad-economy-americans-move-in-with-relatives 11. http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/international_population/cb11-116.html 12. www.tradingeconomics.com/high-income/long-term-unemployment-wb-data.html 13. www.forbes.com/2010/06/14/japan-population-aging-business-oxford-analytica.html 14. http://www.wttc.org/research/economic-impact-research/regional-reports/asia-pacific/ 15. http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/12appdrft/approach_12plan.pdf 16. www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pdf 17. www.thenagain.info/webchron/usa/immigrationact.html 18. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/03/18/the-return-of-the-multi-generational-family-household/ 19. http://assets.aarp.org/www.aarp.org_/cs/misc/leading_a_multigenerational_workforce.pdf 20. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1616/american-marriage-interracial-interethnic 110
  • 110. Endnotes (2) 21. http://www.flickr.com/photos/usgao/5509657762/ 22. www.epa.gov/aging/resources/presentations/2008_1028_nelson_reconstruction.pdf 23. www.kenan-flagler.unc.edu/~/media/files/kenaninstitute/UNC_KenanInstitute_2010Census 24. www.floridafuturessurvey.com/2009/10/demographic-trends.html 25. www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/sun-belts-comeback 26. www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2011/12/22/the-sun-belts-comeback 27. www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/census-shows-fewer-seniors-some-south-florida-cities 28. www.heraldtribune.com/article/20110818/wire/110819592/-1/news?p=2&+c=pg 29. http://www.slideshare.net/Jacqueshart/se-florida-demograghic-trends-dick-ogburn 30. http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2011-03-21/news/fl-census-change-20110318_1_whites-communities-dick- ogburn 31. http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/south-florida-travel/2012/05/29/russias-aeroflot-to-start-flights-to-miami-in- october/ 32. http://www.miami.us.emb-japan.go.jp/en/bilateral.html 33. http://www.travelandleisure.com/slideshows/top-10-asia-spas 34. http://www.alligator.org/news/campus/article_206135ea-3bb0-11df-9902-001cc4c002e0.html 35. http://www.bpwfl.org/ 36. http://flwbc.org/ 37. http://www.theglasshammer.com/news/2009/02/19/breaking-the-glass-ceiling-in-florida/ 38. http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/04/05/census-figures-show-people-once-again-moving-to-s-florida/ 39. http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/news/usa-sees-flattest-growth-population-1940s 40. http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2010-03-05/business/fl-china-tourism-20100305_1_visit-florida-chinese-travel- overseas-trip 111
  • 111.
  • 112. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit The Numbers, and Why They Matter Bill Spikowski, FAICP
  • 113.
  • 114.
  • 115.
  • 116.
  • 119.
  • 121. Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT) drive everywhere?
  • 122. Indicators: Measurements that provide information about past and current trends to assist community leaders in making decisions that affect future outcomes. Benchmarks: Quantifiable targets that crystalize community aspirations. Indicators can be used to measure progress over time in achieving these targets.
  • 124.
  • 126. but what if:  energy prices rise?  federal government expenditures drop?
  • 128.
  • 130.
  • 131. but what if:  energy prices rise dramatically?  migration of people and capital shifts?  sea-level rise affects coastal communities?
  • 132.
  • 133.
  • 134. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit Regions Will Define the Future Neal Peirce, Citistates Group
  • 135. Opening Summit Better Region Better Life Shaping the Plan: Working Lunch, Meet With Your Group
  • 136. Education, Workforce & Econ Development Gymnasium Development Patterns Gymnasium Environment, Natural Resources & Agriculture Gymnasium (Upstairs) Climate Resiliency Classroom 2 Community Assets & Culture Classroom 6 Inclusive Regional Leadership & Equity Studio 2
  • 137.
  • 138. SE Florida Prosperity Plan Opening Summit Lightning Round: Workgroup Highlights Clarence Anthony
  • 139. Better Region Better Life NEXT STEPS
  • 140. Better Region Better Life THANK YOU

Notas do Editor

  1. Marilyn Monroe is found dead on August 5th after apparently overdosing on sleeping pills The first Kmart department store opens in Garden City, MichiganJohn H. Glenn, Jr., becomes first American to orbit the earth during Friendship 7 orbit. Jamaica gains indepenedence
  2. Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  3. Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  4. Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  5. Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material
  6. Preserving Paradise: The most recent South Florida report that Jim Murley produced at FAU with useful economic/demographic material