At year-end 2013, commercial real estate in the office sector saw increased leasing activity, and vacancy dipped to its lowest point since 2007. We enter 2014 with landlord-favorable conditions across the United States, making lease negotiations tighter for tenants. In addition, a lack of new development options stacks more cards in landlord hands, expectedly through mid-2015 at the least.
See more on the state of the U.S. office market, and expectations for 2014, at http://bit.ly/1bz4ukw
Provident Solitaire Park Square Kanakapura Road, Bangalore E- Brochure.pdf
U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013
1. 2014 will be the year of a
diversifying and expanding
office recovery
United States
Office Review
Q4 2013
2. …
Landlord confidence continues to grow; for the 12th consecutive
quarter, asking rents increased and decreased concessions
nationally. Further, when examining tenant leverage ahead
across markets, less than 10 percent of geographies JLL tracks
will be categorized as tenant-favorable in 2015.
3. Ending 2013, growth no longer concentrated as strongly
in specific regions or industry niche markets
Leasing activity
• Q4 posted 61.4 million square feet of leasing activity.
• Leasing levels down 6.1 percent from Q3 2013.
• Annual 2013 leasing levels up 6.5 percent from 2012
Absorption
• Absorption levels increase with 15th consecutive quarter of occupancy growth.
• Absorption gains totaled 13.2 million square feet in the quarter and overall in 2013 nearly reached 40.0
million square feet, the highest volume in the recovery so far.
• Throughout the year, New York, Houston, Dallas, the Bay Area and Seattle were the largest contributors to
absorption nationally.
Vacancy
• Vacancy dropped 20 basis points to a recovery low of 16.6 percent during the quarter and dropped from
17.0 percent last year..
• CBD vacancy fell below 14.0 to 13.9 percent and in the suburbs, vacancy levels closed the year at 18.2
percent.
Rents
•
•
•
•
•
Construction
• Construction starts no longer dominated by specific geographies.
• Most markets will not see new deliveries enter the market until 2015, presenting challenges for large
tenants, especially in CBDs.
Tenants have far less leverage across urbanized, core markets, especially in Trophy and Class A buildings.
Rents have now increased in 12 of the past 13 quarters.
Class A rent growth continues to trump Class B rent movement across the board.
Rents growing over four times faster in CBDs than suburbs.
Concessions continue to erode and are now at 2008 levels nationally.
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
3
4. Consistent number of markets posting quarterly increases
in leasing activity (45.8 percent of markets)
Up
Neutral
Down
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
4
5. Leasing activity totaled 61.4 million square feet, down 6.1
percent from Q3
90,000,000
26-quarter trailing average
80,000,000
Leasing activity (s.f.)
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
5
7. Annual leasing activity 6.5 percent higher in 2013 than in
2012, but third-highest during recovery
300,000,000
Leasing activity (s.f.)
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
7
8. A wide range of geographies leasing fastest relative
to supply
Leasing activity as percentage of inventory
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
New York
San Francisco
San Francisco
Peninsula
Minneapolis
Boston
Silicon Valley
Fairfield County
St. Louis
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
8
9. Q4 marks 15th consecutive quarter of positive net
absorption, highest since 2007
Quarterly net absorption (as % of inventory)
1.5%
15-year trailing quarterly average
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
9
10. 2013 annual net absorption reaches 1.1 percent of
inventory, surpasses 15-year average
Net absorption as a percent of inventory
5.0%
15-year trailing annual average
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
10
11. Suburban Class A space comprises the majority of
absorption, with Class B presence growing
Class A (CBD)
Class B (suburban)
50,000,000
Class A (suburban)
Class C (CBD)
2011
2012
Class B (CBD)
Class C (suburban)
YTD net absorption (s.f.)
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
-10,000,000
2010
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
11
12. Geographic spread of the recovery and growth in New
York make 2013 the most balanced year of the recovery
NYC and DC
Tech markets
Energy markets
2010
2012
Sunbelt
All other markets
2010: New York and DC comprise 70.0 percent of
absorption.
2011: Tech and energy emerge, comprising 52.5
percent of absorption; New York and DC fall to 5.1
percent.
2012: Sunbelt markets grow to over one-third of
absorption, but tech and energy remain dominant
(58.2 percent of 2012 absorption); New York and
DC both post negative annual absorption.
2013: No sector or region contributes more than
one quarter of annual absorption, all others
contribute 26.4 percent.
11.1%
26.4%
2011
2013
21.6%
18.6%
22.3%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
12
13. Energy, tech and Sunbelt markets all posting aboveaverage absorption; energy and tech remain ahead
3.5%
Energy markets
YTD net absorption (% of stock)
3.0%
Tech markets
Sunbelt markets
U.S. average
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
13
14. New York’s strong Q4 performance makes East Coast
largest contributor for the first time since Q2 2011
East Coast
Central
West Coast
100%
80%
Share of quarterly absorption (%)
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
14
15. Although a tiny portion of inventory, Atlanta and
Florida contributing disproportionately to recovery
7.4%
20,000,000
22.9%
Atlanta
1,261.6%
Florida
63.3%
Rest of East Coast
Net absorption (s.f.)
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
-5,000,000
-10,000,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
15
16. Class B absorption has risen in line with Class A rents
as tenants seek affordable space options…
Class B net absorption
0.8%
Class A rent
$36
$35
$34
0.4%
$33
0.2%
$32
0.0%
$31
-0.2%
$30
-0.4%
Class A average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
Class B YT D net absorption (as % of stock)
0.6%
$29
-0.6%
$28
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
16
17. …but Class A remains the leader in absorption since 2011
Trophy & Class A net
absorption
Class B and C net
absorption
83.4 18.4
m.s.f. m.s.f.
2011-2013
2011-2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
17
18. …with 80.9 of Q4 absorption being Class A space
350%
295.2%
Class A share of quarterly absorption
300%
250%
200%
150%
133.5%
100%
98.5%
93.9%
74.5%
82.0%
76.3%
78.3%
73.4%
80.9%
63.5%
45.2%
50%
0%
2011
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
18
19. Even in large block-deprived CBDs, Class A space
responsible for nearly all absorption…
180%
166.2%
Class A share of quarterly absorption
160%
140%
120%
100.0%
100%
90.4%
106.1%
88.8%
88.1%
80.8%
92.0%
86.5%
74.8%
80%
60%
49.6%
40%
20%
0.0%
0%
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
19
20. …while the percentage has slowly fallen in the suburbs
180%
167.8%
Class A share of quarterly absorption
160%
140%
120%
116.9%
102.5%
97.9%
100%
84.3%
85.3%
75.1%
80%
73.4%
72.8%
70.3%
62.3%
60%
43.2%
40%
20%
0%
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
20
21. Driving the B market of late? Creative space in
tech hubs
CBD year-end net absorption (% of stock)
6.0%
Class A
Class B
5.4%
4.9%
5.0%
4.0%
3.4%
3.0%
3.0%
2.1%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.0%
-1.0%
-0.7%
-0.5%
-2.0%
Austin
Portland
Detroit
San Francisco
Seattle
Oakland-East Bay
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
21
22. Overall, Class A continues to trump commodity
according to most indicators
of absorbed space in 2013
has been Class A
per square foot difference
between Class A and B space…
the rate at which Class A rates are
growing compared to Class B
difference between Class A and
Class B total vacancy
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
22
23. Total vacancy still falling very slowly, but levels now
the lowest since before 2009
20%
19%
16.6%
18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
11%
Q4 2010
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010
Q4 2009
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q1 2009
10%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
23
25. Total vacancy down across building classes and
geographies, but with significant variance
22%
Class A (CBD)
Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD)
Class C (suburban)
B
Total vacancy (%)
20%
18%
16%
C A
14%
12%
10%
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
25
26. Office growth being driven by atypical tenant
industries
Industry
Employment base
Most affected office markets to date
State Government
Federal Government
Media-print
Finance / banking
Law firms
Consulting
Accounting
Telecom
Retail / consumer goods
Education
Media digital and TV
Green energy / clean technology
Real estate (Residential)
Contracting
Contracting
Contracting
Contracting
Contracting (Rightsizing)
Contracting (Rightsizing)
Contracting (Rightsizing)
Stable
Stable
Growing
Growing
Growing
Growing
California, Illinois, New Jersey
Washington, DC
LA, NYC
NYC, Charlotte, Chicago, Palm Beach, Pittsburgh
Washington, DC, NYC, SF, Atlanta, LA
NYC, Chicago, Washington, DC
Chicago, NYC, LA
NJ, Dallas, Atlanta
NYC, Atlanta, Los Angeles
Everywhere
Atlanta, NYC, LA, Philadelphia, Washington, DC
Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, Denver
Technology
Growing
Natural Gas / Oil Energy
Biotech / pharmaceutical
Growing
Growing
Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, Portland,
Midtown South NYC, Cambridge, MA
Denver, Houston, Dallas, Pittsburgh
San Francisco, San Diego, NJ/Phil, Boston, RDU
Southern CA, Nevada, AZ, FL, GA, Carolinas
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
26
27. Demographics and technology are driving productivity
and utilization and the next evolution of office space
use
150
SF/employee
average target
density, down from
225 in 2009
15%
Space reduction
by U.S. law firms
and financial
services relocating
72%
Of global CREs plan
to aggressively
increase density in
next 3 years
50%
Of the U.S.
workforce was
baby boomers in
2010. Gen Y will
be 50% by 2020
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
27
28. And as a result, law firms are shifting
•
•
•
•
Going digital
Elimination of law libraries
One-sized fits all office
Higher administrative ratios
•
•
•
Migration to glass boxes
Migration to long and lean
Migration to smaller floorplates
15.2%
20.5%
24.7%
Giveback by law firm
across the U.S. when
relocating
Giveback by law firm
across the top 7 U.S. markets
when relocating
Giveback by law firm
across DC when
relocating
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
28
29. Consulting / accounting are shifting
•
•
•
Benching
Work flexibly and client officing
Offices gone; collaboration
rooms in
•
•
Increasingly looking at new
construction to meet efficiency
standards
Industry giving back most space
25.0%
225 s.f.
90 s.f.
Giveback by
consulting firms
across the U.S. when
relocating
Average space per consultant
in years past
Average space per
consultant in the most
efficient firms today
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
29
30. Technology companies are shifting
•
•
•
Benching is standard
Less personal space, more
shared and amenity space
“Open Hangar” design preferred
•
•
•
Migration to Class B+ with
character
Space viewed as core to culture
Remote work is waning
17.4%
14.2%
11.2%
Percent increase in
high tech service jobs
since 2009
Vacancy rate in core tech
markets, compared to
16.8% nationwide
Growth in core tech
market rents in 2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
30
31. Banks are shifting
•
•
•
Regulation and cost pressures
forcing portfolio consolidation
Offices shrinking
Business units competing
10.1%
Giveback by average
bank across the U.S.
when renewing (with
headcount flat)
•
•
•
Branch reductions common
Increasing importance of back
office (2nd / 3rd –tier markets)
Remote working increasing
86%
66%
Percent of banking
transactions that no
longer need a teller
Percent of surveyed
banks planning to
reduce their RE
footprint
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
31
32. Even the federal government is shifting
•
•
•
•
Telecommuting
Benching
Collocations
Minimal funds to implement
•
•
•
Consolidations in low cost
buildings/submarkets
Migration to off-center locations
Disposition of underutilized assets.
170 s.f.
$1.7 billion
15.9%
Target utilization rate
per employee for
federally leased space
Amount spent annually by
GSA for properties deemed
underutilized
Average giveback by
GSA across Metro DC
when relocating in FY
2013
Source: GSA.gov, Jones Lang LaSalle Research
32
33. After a slowdown earlier in the year, faster office-using
employment growth pushes down vacancy
Office-using employment
Total vacancy
19.0%
18.5%
29,000
18.0%
28,500
17.5%
28,000
17.0%
27,500
16.5%
15.5%
2013
26,500
2012
16.0%
2011
27,000
Total vacancy
Office-using employees (thousands)
29,500
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
33
34. CBD vacancy drops 30 basis points to 13.9 percent;
suburban down 10 basis points to 18.2 percent
25%
23%
21%
Total vacancy (%)
19%
17%
15%
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
34
37. Rental growth fastest in CBD Class A (+15.3 percent)
and suburban Class C (+7.3 percent) space
$50
Class A (CBD)
Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD)
Class C (suburban)
$40
A
$35
$30
$25
BC
Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
$45
$20
$15
$10
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
37
38. U.S. office market moves farther along the clock as
more markets shift into landlord-favorable territory
Seattle-Bellevue
Houston, San Francisco
San Francisco Peninsula, Silicon Valley
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Dallas
Austin
Pittsburgh
Denver
Boston, Orange County
Tampa, United States
Atlanta, Indianapolis, Los Angeles,
New York, Richmond
Miami, San Diego
Cleveland, Cincinnati,
Minneapolis, Oakland-East Bay,
Philadelphia, Portland, San Antonio
Charlotte, Detroit, Fairfield County, Milwaukee,
Sacramento, St. Louis, Westchester County
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
Orlando, West Palm Beach
Baltimore, New Jersey
Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville
Washington, DC
Chicago, Columbus, Hampton Roads,
Phoenix, Raleigh-Durham
38
39. Faster rent growth and declining vacancy in CBDs
contributing to faster movement along clock
Midtown South (New York)
Seattle-Bellevue
San Francisco
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Austin, Houston
Miami
Denver
Pittsburgh, San Jose CBD
Boston, Philadelphia
Atlanta, Tampa, United States CBD
Greenwich CBD, Indianapolis
Midtown (New York),
Portland, Stamford CBD
Oakland-East Bay
Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Los Angeles,
Minneapolis, White Plains CBD
Charlotte, Dallas, Jacksonville, Milwaukee,
Raleigh-Durham, San Antonio
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
Baltimore, Orlando, Phoenix,
West Palm Beach
St. Louis
Sacramento
Chicago, Columbus, Downtown
(New York), Fort Lauderdale,
Richmond, San Diego. Washington, DC
39
40. Suburban markets still struggling with elevated
vacancy, with more submarkets tenant-friendly
Silicon Valley
Seattle-Bellevue
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Dallas, Houston, San Francisco
Bottoming
phase
San Francisco Peninsula
Cambridge
Austin, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles, Portland (Westside)
Denver, Richmond
Indianapolis, Orange County, Tampa
Baltimore, Boston, Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia,
San Diego, United States Suburbs
Atlanta, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee,
Minneapolis, Oakland- East Bay,
Sacramento, San Antonio, St. Louis
Charlotte
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
Southern New Jersey
Jacksonville
Orlando, West Palm Beach
Fort Lauderdale
Miami, Central and Northern New
Jersey, Northern Virginia
Northern Delaware, Raleigh-Durham,
Suburban Maryland
Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Fairfield
County, Hampton Roads, Portland
(East, Vancouver), Westchester County
40
41. Since 2010, quarterly rent growth more volatile in
CBD than suburbs, but faster on average
CBD rent growth
Suburban rent growth
3.5%
Quarterly rent change (%)
2.5%
CBD average:
1.1%
1.5%
0.5%
-0.5%
Suburban
average: 0.0%
-1.5%
-2.5%
-3.5%
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
41
42. Slightly faster rental growth in suburbs results in rent
gap narrowing by $0.12 in Q4
$40
CBD
Suburbs
$38
$36
$34
$15.48
$32
$30
$28
$11.36
$26
$24
$22
$20
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
42
43. Similar rental growth rates resulted in the Class A
premium falling slightly for the second time in 2013
$5.00
Difference between Class A and overall rents
$4.80
$4.60
$4.40
$4.20
$4.00
$3.80
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
43
44. Concessions wobbling near end of 2013, but overall
decline in TI allowances and free months vs. 2012
Months
Average rent abatement (months)
$ PSF
Average tenant improvement allowance
7
$31.00
6.1
6
6.2
5.7
$30.00
5.5
5.1
5.3
5
$28.00
4.1
4
$29.00
$27.00
3.5
$26.00
3
$25.00
2
$24.00
1
$23.00
0
$22.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
44
45. As vacancy falls, so does leverage for tenants and tenant
build-out allowances from landlords
Average TI package
Total vacancy
$31
19.0%
18.5%
18.0%
$29
17.5%
$28
Total vacancy
Average TI package
$30
17.0%
$27
16.5%
$26
16.0%
$25
15.5%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
45
46. New supply coming to market slowly increasing, but
still well below historic norms
140,000,000
120,000,000
Historical average
amount of completions
(s.f.) per year
Completions (s.f.)
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
46
47. The majority of new construction is now in suburbs
rather than CBDs
Class A (CBD)
100%
Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD)
Class C (suburban)
90%
Under construction (s.f.)
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
47
48. Deliveries in Q4 bring overall construction volumes
down slightly, but geographic spread increasing
Spec construction underway
in many markets, including:
Atlanta
Charlotte
Dallas
Houston
New York
Northern Virginia
Seattle
San Francisco
Silicon Valley
Washington, DC
160,000,000
140,000,000
Under construction (s.f.)
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
48
49. The vast majority of new completions are Class A, with
an increasing share in the suburbs
Class A (CBD)
Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD)
25,000,000
Class C (suburban)
YT D completions (s.f.)
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
49
50. 27.7 percent of markets reporting an increase in
construction starts…
Up
Neutral
Down
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2011
2012
2013
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
50
51. …and no specific region was home to a majority of
starts
900,000
800,000
Construction starts (s.f.)
700,000
802,500
645,000
600,000
500,000
465,001
423,331
400,000
360,000
358,934
321,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
309,500
300,425
231,733
220,000
168,220
126,652
49,099
0
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research
51
52. Into 2014 and 2015, the spreading and enhancement of growth
nationally across industries and geographies highly benefits diversified
economies like Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Atlanta,
Phoenix, among others.
…