General Election: One Year Out

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
General Election
One year out

Welcome:
Sir Robert
Worcester
Founder of MORI

3
Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 12th May 2014
Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus,
ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus
Reid, Ashcroft
-30
-15
0
15
30
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Conservativevoteshare
EOI% +/-
+3
32%
-3
Proximity
to 32%
Number of
polls
% of polls
+/-3ppt
444/
497
89%
+/-2ppt
388/
497
78%
+/-1ppt
261/
497
53%
Vote share trendline: R2 = 0.0049
EOI impact on vote share: R2 = 0.0782
Economic Optimism Up, Conservative Vote Share Static
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”
“Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over
the next twelve months?”

Professor
Roger Mortimore
Professor of Public Opinion and Political
Analysis at Institute of Contemporary British
History, King's College London

The Election:
One Year Out
Roger Mortimore
Professor of Public Opinion and Political
Analysis at Institute of Contemporary British
History, King's College London

6
The most unpredictable election in living memory?
 What are the precedents?
– The last time a government increased its vote share after
more than two years in office - 1955
– (It has only happened twice since 1900)
– The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall
majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931
– Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832

Marginal seats
General election 2010 Overall majority
326 seats

Marginal seats
General election 2010
306
258
57

Marginal seats
To win in 2015
306
258
57
Conservatives
need 20 gains
Labour need
68 gains

Marginal seats
To win in 2015
306
258
57
Conservatives
need 1.9%
swing
Labour need
5.0% swing

11
A 5% swing is big, but not impossibly big
Source: House of Commons Library
Swings at general elections
2.8
1.1
1.7
1.2
4.8
5.4
4.0
1.8
3.2
5.1
11.3
3.0
2.7
0.9
2.1
1.8
2.0
10.2
1945
1951
1959
1966
1974 (Feb)
1979
1987
1997
2005
Swing to Con
Swing to Lab

12
May change my mindDefinitely decided
81%
18%
Increasing volatility of the voters
Q Have you definitely decided to vote for xxx party or is there a chance you may change your mind before
you vote?
Base: All British adults 18+ naming one of the three main parties Source: Ipsos MORI
62%
35%
Don’t know
21-25
April
2005 54%
45%
25-27
March
1992
23
April
2010

13
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Voting intentions and turnout
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Voting intentions and turnout
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”

16
How voters decide
Policies
PartyLocal
candidates
Leaders
Perceptions, not facts,
make public opinion

17
The political triangle: trends
Q I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. … If you had a total of ten points
to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to
[each]?
Base: British adults aged 18+ giving a voting intention (c.700 in each survey, 1,210 in February 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI
LEADERS of the party
PARTY as a whole
POLICIES of the party

18
[each]?
44
47
41 42
46
35
33 34
32 31
21 20
23 24 24
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
PARTY as a whole
Meanscoresoutof10convertedtopercentages

19
[each]?
44
47
41 42
46
40
38
35
33 34
32 31
39 38
21 20
23 24 24
21 22
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
PARTY as a whole

20
[each]?
44
47
41 42
46
40
38
41
35
33 34
32 31
39 38
26
21 20
23 24 24
21 22
33
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
PARTY as a whole

21
…pointing out what was
wrong with the policies and
personalities in other parties
…putting forward their
own policies and
personalities
80%
14%
1%
Negative campaigning
Which of the following comes closest to your views?
Base: 1,018 adults aged 18+ across 57 marginal constituencies in Great Britain, 23-26 April 2010 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI
25%
64%
8%
Don’t know
Is being
fought
Should be
fought
The election should be fought by the parties/is being fought by the parties…
Neither
Both

22
What the voters say they don’t like –
negative campaigning

23
Positive and negative perceptions - 2010
Base: 1,253 GB adults aged 18+, 18-20 April 2010 Source: Mortimore et al (2014), IJMR
Q. In general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?
EFFECT ON SATISFACTION WITH THE LEADER (Multivariate regression analysis)
TrustworthyNot trustworthy Don’t know
No significant
difference
Odds of being
dissatisfied
3
times as high
No significant
difference
Odds of being
dissatisfied
8
times as high

25
Government lead in the polls – one year out
2015
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
One year out

26
2015
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
One year out
In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when
one party had a narrow poll lead one year out,

27
2015
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
One year out
In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when
one party had a narrow poll lead one year out,
THE OTHER PARTY WON

Thank you
Roger Mortimore
Professor of Public Opinion and
Political Analysis at Institute of
Contemporary British History, King's
College London

Ben Page
Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI

One Year from
the Election…
Ben Page
Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI
@benatipsosmori

8%
10%
13%
14%
11%
14%
15%
24%
31%
33%
47%
Defence/Foreign
Housing
Poverty/Inequality
Inflation/Prices
Pensions/Benefits
Education/Schools
Crime/Law & order
NHS/Hospitals
Unemployment
Race/Immigration
Economy/Economic situation
The Issues…
Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

9%
10%
10%
12%
12%
13%
14%
23%
30%
39%
45%
8%
10%
13%
14%
11%
14%
15%
24%
31%
33%
47%
Defence/Foreign
Housing
Poverty/Inequality
Inflation/Prices
Pensions/Benefits
Education/Schools
Crime/Law & order
NHS/Hospitals
Unemployment
Race/Immigration
Economy/Economic situation
…in the marginals? Hello Nigel!
Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
All GB
Marginal seats

-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jun-97
Sep-97
Dec-97
Mar-98
Jun-98
Sep-98
Dec-98
Mar-99
Jun-99
Sep-99
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Jun-01
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Economic Optimism reaches record levels…
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56
-48
+23
Index(getbetterminusgetworse)
-64
+35

…but few think it has benefited them
As you may know, according to official statistics the UK economy has grown by about 1.5% compared to the same time last
year. What impact, if any, do you feel this growth in the economy has had on you and your family’s standard of living so far?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,019 British adults 18+, 9th- 11th November 2013
Don’t know
3%
11%
36%
48%
1%
A great deal
None at all
14%
84%

…leads to “none of the above”?
% who think .... would be the same under a Labour/Conservative government
Base: 1,003 British adults aged 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Labour government Conservative government
The number of immigrants
entering Britain
49% 52%
The amount of tax you
personally pay
43% 52%
Living standards for you
personally
56% 56%

Which brings
us to.....

UKIP: out of touch (for some) but touching a nerve
Now thinking about UKIP, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
27%
26%
16%
25%
10%
9%
24%
15%
16%
19%
7%
6%
UKIP is a party that
is out of touch with
the modern world
UKIP is highlighting
important issues
which other parties
aren't taking
seriously enough
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
40%
34%
43%
51%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
Including 52% of Conservatives
and 44% of Labour voters

Targeting?

Newark?
Turnout = 71.5%
2010 GE
53.9%
22.3%
20.0%
3.8%
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
2014 Europeans
Turnout = 36.1%
31.2%
21.4%6.1%
32.4%
8.9%
NB constituency profiles not exactly the same between parliamentary and European election boundaries

Only 51%of
voters for UKIP in
the European
elections say they
are likely to vote
for them in 2015
4,286 online interviews with people voting in European
Parliament elections 22-23 May 2014, lordashcroftpolls.com
Only 18%of
people in key
marginals say they
have received
campaign activity
from UKIP.......
....although this
rises to over
40%in:
• Dudley North
• Morley &
Outwood
• Great Grimsby
• Halifax
26,025 telephone interviews in 26 marginal constituencies 31
March – 18 May 2014, lordashcroftpolls.com
Will it last?

Four challenges
for the
Conservatives

The system is
massively against
them (see Roger)1
Their vote share
(see Bob)2

Remain the MOST
disliked party3

Struggle outside the South
38%
23%
16%
16%
7%

The north is very red
28%
45%
10%
13%
4%

Not a “women problem”, but a younger women
problem
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*
*All certain to vote
27
29
37
23
26
35
32
35
31
45 45
35
14
11
8
11 12 11
13 13
17
7 7
11
18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP
Men Women
Base 2,571British adults 18+ certain to vote, January – May 2014

The rise of UKIP
4

UKIP still picking up most from Conservatives – Pig
wrestling any one?
2014 UKIP Vote
Base: 300 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – May 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
35%
11%
13%
22%
4%
15%
2010 Con (or 13% of 2010
Con vote)
2010 Labour (or 4% of
2010 Labour vote)
2010 LibDem (or 9% of
2010 LibDem vote)
2010 UKIP
2010 Other
2010 DNV/too young etc

Three challenges
for Labour

Their vote share too....
1

0
10
20
30
40
50
Nov-03
Feb-04
May-04
Aug-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Labour’s lead in decline….
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
34%
9%
31%
11%
Labour 2012
average: 41%
Labour 2014
average: 37%

Credibility of Ed
Miliband2

Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low......
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Netsatisfaction

Credibility on the
economy3

The Conservatives hold the mantle of economic
credibility
Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jun-99
Sep-99
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Jun-01
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

The Conservatives hold the mantle of economic
credibility
Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jun-99
Sep-99
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Jun-01
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP

Lib Dems
suffering – but
will still have
many more MPs
than UKIP

…but are their supporters giving up?
How important, if at all, is it to you personally who wins the next General Election?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 10th – 12th May 2014
0 20 40 60
Liberal Democrat
UKIP
Conservative
Labour
24%
51%
51%
57%
%Very important

2015: The “War of the Weak”?
In 1993: 83% identify with one of
the three main parties
Now: 67% - 2015 even more
unpredictable than ever!

Thank you
Ben.page@ipsos.com
+44 20 7347 3000
@benatipsosmori

James
O’Shaughnessy
Chief Policy Adviser at Portland
Communications

Miranda Green
Editor of The Day

Matthew Taylor
Chief Executive of the
Royal Society of Arts

Q&A from audience

Thank you…

General Election: One Year Out

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