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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
February 2014
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Independence referendum
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Referendum voting intention
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Certain to vote
All voters
Undecided
11%
Undecided
16%
Yes
32%
No
55%
No
57%
Base: All (1,001); all certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
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Yes
29%
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Referendum voting intention – recent trend
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
70%
60%
No
50%
40%
Yes
30%
20%
Undecided
10%
0%
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
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Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
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Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Certain to vote
All voters
Yes
36%
Yes
35%
No
65%
No
64%
Base: All (842); all certain to vote (691). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
All definitely decided and certain to vote
80%
No
70%
60%
Yes
33%
50%
40%
Yes
30%
No
67%
20%
10%
0%
Feb-13
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (572). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
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May-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
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45%
Scots who…
may not vote (22%)
will vote but are undecided (9%)
will vote but may change their vote (14%)
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Floating voters
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
All undecided voters
Voters who may change
their mind
Undecided
33%
Which way
are you
inclined to
vote?
31%
23%
Yes
39%
No
29%
Yes voters
No voters
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (215); all undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th
February 2014
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Long-term trend
9
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
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2003
2008
2013
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Voting intention by gender
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% voting Yes
Men
50%
38%
27%
40%
30%
54%
59%
20%
10%
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
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Women
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Voting intention by age group
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% voting Yes
16-24*
45%
33%
25-34
35-54
70%
16-24
51%
12%
25-34
60%
43%
50%
40%
30%
20%
30%
28%
10%
12%
35-54
57%
9%
55+
63%
0%
Yes
No
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
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55+
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Voting intention by levels of deprivation
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% voting Yes
Most deprived areas
70%
60%
47%
50%
71%
40%
30%
20%
41%
20%
Most deprived areas
10%
Least deprived areas
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
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Least deprived areas
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Voting intention by party support
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% voting Yes
SNP
76%
80%
11%
76%
70%
13%
60%
14%
50%
40%
30%
20%
94%
13%
5%
10%
82%
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
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Lab
Con
Lib Dem
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Currency
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As you may know, the Scottish Government has proposed that an independent Scotland would continue to use the pound within a currency union with the rest
of the UK. The three main UK-wide political parties recently announced that they would not enter into a currency union with an independent Scotland. Based on
this announcement, what impact, if any will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum? Will you be more likely to vote ‘Yes’, more likely to vote ‘No’ or
will it make no difference?
16%
13%
All
56%
30%
Undecided
44% voters
More likely to
vote Yes
More likely to
vote No
Make no
difference
Don't know
34%
14%
47%
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
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May
change
mind
37%
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Technical details
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents
(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 20th– 25th February 2014
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
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