Ipsos MORI held a fringe event at the Conservative Party conference, which aimed to move beyond the Westminster village to consider how the average person sees the political parties and the state of Britain today. The fringe event focused on the Conservative Party's standing in the public mind and whether it can increase its share of the vote at the next election beyond its 2010 result of 37%. Panellists: Laura Sandys MP, David Skelton (Renewal), Joe Murphy (London Evening Standard), Gideon Skinner (Ipsos MORI), Ben Page (chair, Ipsos MORI)

1. #beyondthebubble
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research Ipsos MORI

2. #beyondthebubble

3. 3
#beyondthebubble
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
37%
10%
34%
Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Since 2010 Labour has consistently led in the polls
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
11%
June-Dec 2010:
Avg. -1.5pt Lab lead
Jan ’11-Mar ‘12:
Avg. 4pt Lab lead
April ’12-April’13:
Avg. 10pt Lab lead
May – Sept ‘13:
6 pt Lab lead

4. 4
#beyondthebubble
But what about the share, not the lead?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Con share % 6 mth moving average
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults, all giving voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
April-May 2012

5. 5
#beyondthebubble
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Shareofgoverningparty
Labour: 1997 – 2010
(6 mth moving average)
Base: c. 500-1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from new
government taking power
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data
collected from June 2008 was via telephone. Data collected prior to Nov 2002 is based on all
expressing an intention to vote, data from Nov 1992 is based on all certain to vote
2001 GE
1987 GE
Conservatives: 1979-1997
(6 mth moving average)
Conservatives:
2010-2012
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
The electoral cycle?
2005 GE
1983 GE 1992 GE

6. 6
#beyondthebubble
2015 is a difficult but not impossible task…
2.8
1.1
1.7
1.2
4.8
5.4
4.0
1.8
3.2
5.1
2
3
2.7
0.9
2.1
1.8
2
10.2
5
1950
1951
1955
1959
1964
1966
1970
1974 (Feb)
1974 (Oct)
1979
1983
1987
1992
1997
2001
2005
2010
2015
Swing to Con
Swing to Lab
Source: House of Commons Library
Swings at general elections

7. 7
#beyondthebubble
Source: House of Commons Library
2015 is a difficult but not impossible task…
2.8
1.1
1.7
1.2
4.8
5.4
4.0
1.8
3.2
5.1
2
3
2.7
0.9
2.1
1.8
2
10.2
5
1950
1951
1955
1959
1964
1966
1970
1974 (Feb)
1974 (Oct)
1979
1983
1987
1992
1997
2001
2005
2010
2015
Swing to Con
Swing to Lab
Swings at general elections

8. 8
#beyondthebubble
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Are 2010 Conservative voters staying or going?
Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted
Conservative in 2010
Would vote for
other party
Undecided/refused/ would not vote
Would still vote
Conservative
%
See next
slide
83%
76%

9. 9
#beyondthebubble
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Among 2010 Conservative voters who are
switching – where to?
Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted
Conservative in 2010
Labour
Liberal
Democrat
UKIP
%

10. 10
#beyondthebubble
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Base: c. 240-300 2010 Conservative voters adults each month. Based on all not all certain to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Among 2010 Conservative voters who are
switching – where to?
Current voting intentions each month (all expressing an opinion) among those who said they voted
Conservative in 2010
Labour
Liberal
Democrat
UKIP
%

11. 11
#beyondthebubble
This is highest level of support for a “fourth party”
since the SDP in 1981 – who are UKIP voters?
Men
Oldest age profile of any party
Read the Daily Mail or
Telegraph (not the Guardian!)
Generally dissatisfied with everyone
(government, Cameron, Miliband,
Clegg)
Based in the Midlands and the South
(outside London)
In Conservative held seats – though
more often safe seats than marginals
More worried about Europe than
anyone else – but even more
worried about the economy &
immigration

12. #beyondthebubble
Are there parts the Conservative vote
does not reach?

13. 13
#beyondthebubble
5%
6%
1%
2%
6%
0%
8%
9%
12%Oct 1974
1979
1983
1992
2005
1987
1997
2001
Con lead over Lab higher among womenCon lead over Lab higher among men
2010
The declining tradition of Conservative women is
a long-term issue

14. 14
#beyondthebubble
The “women’s vote” now…
Conservative lead = -5
Men
31%
36%
9%
15%
9%
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
Women
Conservative lead = -13
29%
42%
10%
9%
10%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase 4, 180 British adults 18+, January – August 2013
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*
*All certain to vote
+8
-7
-13
+11
-7
-16

15. 15
#beyondthebubble
Blue collar women no longer voting blue
29%
42%
10%
9%
10%
ABs: -5
C1s: -10
C2s: -11
DEs: -3

16. 16
#beyondthebubble
The gender gap is most clearly pronounced
among younger voters
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”*
*All certain to vote
31 30 31
24 25
33
39
36
33
48 48
36
10 9 9 9
11 11
6
14
19
4
7
13
18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP
Men Women
Base 4, 180 British adults 18+, January – August 2013

17. 17
#beyondthebubble
“How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”
Generational analysis shows the Conservatives’
traditional reliance on older voters – but changing?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)
% Conservative
All data points represent > 1,000 responses Source: Ipsos MORI

18. #beyondthebubble

19. 19
#beyondthebubble
The political map now…

20. 20
#beyondthebubble
Strong in the south…
37%
28%
12%
15%
8%

21. 21
#beyondthebubble
…apart from in London
29%
44%
11%
9%
7%

22. 22
#beyondthebubble
Small Labour lead in the Midlands
32%
38%
9%
14%
7%

23. 23
#beyondthebubble
The north is very red
26%
47%
8%
12%
7%

24. 24
#beyondthebubble
Tories are barely seen in Scotland and Wales
20%
39%7%
6%
28%

25. #beyondthebubble
Labour’s lead…three
reasons why it might be
fragile

26. #beyondthebubble
1. Views of the leaders

27. 27
#beyondthebubble
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Ed Miliband’s approval ratings are low
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Netsatisfaction

28. 28
#beyondthebubble
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
(Hague and IDS low)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Netsatisfaction

29. 29
Netsatisfaction
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
And Cameron’s ratings are steadying
CAMERON
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

30. 30
Netsatisfaction
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Compares to other Prime Ministers…
THATCHER
BLAIR
MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

31. 31
#beyondthebubble#beyondthebubble
Cameron leads on more Prime Ministerial
qualities
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
79%
50%
70%
52%
40%
53%
47%
40%
58%
52%
49%
41%
32%
28%
20%
19%
MilibandCameron
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Looks after some sections of society
more than others

32. #beyondthebubble
2. Economic credibility

33. 33
#beyondthebubble
Base: 970 British adults 18+, 30th August – 8th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
The economy is the most important issue
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
45
33
32
23
21
16
13
13
11
10
Top mentions %
Economy
Race relations/Immigration
Inflation/Prices
NHS
Unemployment
Crime/Law and order
Defence/foreign affairs
Education/schools
Poverty/Inequality
Housing

34. 34
#beyondthebubble
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-90
Sep-90
Mar-91
Sep-91
Mar-92
Sep-92
Mar-93
Sep-93
Mar-94
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
And the Conservatives hold the mantle of
economic credibility
Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

35. 35
#beyondthebubble
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-90
Sep-90
Mar-91
Sep-91
Mar-92
Sep-92
Mar-93
Sep-93
Mar-94
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
And the Conservatives hold the mantle of
economic credibility
Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
38%
20%
5%

36. 36
#beyondthebubble
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over
the next 12 months?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Perhaps not surprising given summer of rising
economic optimism…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index =
% improve minus % get worse

37. 37
#beyondthebubble
Though no-one has won the living standards
debate
Do you think you and you family would be better off under a Conservative government or a Labour
government, or do you think it would make no difference?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
Conservative lead = -1
22%
52%
23%
Conservative
government
Labour
government
Make no
difference

38. 38
#beyondthebubble
Tories seen as a more credible government
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
14%
21%
17%
27%
38%
27%
47%
39%
Fit to govern
Has a good team of leaders
41%
27%
44%
29%
55%
43%
44%
30%
Understands the problems
facing Britain
Looks after the interest of
people like me
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrats UKIP

39. #beyondthebubble

40. 40
#beyondthebubble#beyondthebubble
The Conservatives are still the most disliked party
Which of these statements come closest to your view of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat/United
Kingdom Independence party?
% dislike party

41. #beyondthebubble
3. Labour’s reliance on
Liberal Democrats

42. 42
Will LibDem switchers come back?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013
Voted LD
in 2010
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
26%
13%
29%
7%
5%
20%
Other
UKIP
Conservatives
Labour
Still LD & certain to vote
Still LD, not certain to vote

43. 43
Although tactical voting isn’t dead…..
You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it
be?
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Lab
supporters
Lib Dem
supporters
Conservatives 14 30
Labour - 31
Liberal Democrats 30 -
UKIP 9 7
Other 16 20
Would not vote for
another party/none
22 5
Don’t know 8 7

44. 44
Tactical voting isn’t dead…..
You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it
be?
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Lab
supporters
Lib Dem
supporters
Con
supporters
UKIP
supporters
Conservatives 14 30 - 37
Labour - 31 13 17
Liberal Democrats 30 - 33 9
UKIP 9 7 23 -
Other 16 20 6 17
Would not vote for
another party/none
22 5 17 16
Don’t know 8 7 9 4

45. #beyondthebubble

46. 46
#beyondthebubble
Final thoughts
 The economy is picking up
 David Cameron remains an
asset
 Still the party of the head….
 But:
– ....not the party of the heart
– ‘no-go’ areas of support, while
UKIP chips away at base
– historical comparisons aren’t
kind

47. Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com

48. Questions and Discussion